Click here to view the transcript of today’s chat with MLBTR’s Anthony Franco.
Rays Sign Heath Hembree, Ben Heller, Zack Burdi To Minor League Deals
The Rays have signed three righties to minor league deals, reports Marc Topkin of the Tampa Bay Times. Heath Hembree, Ben Heller and Zack Burdi will all receive invitations to major league Spring Training.
Hembree, 34, is easily the most experienced of the bunch. He’s appeared in each of the past 10 major league seasons, getting into 357 games over his career thus far. He had some really good years for the Red Sox from 2014 to 2019 but has gone into journeyman mode over the past few campaigns, suiting up for the Sox, Phillies, Mets, Reds, Pirates and Dodgers since the start of 2020.
Last year, Hembree made 26 appearances between the Bucs and Dodgers but registered a 7.36 ERA in that time. He posted matching 15.9% strikeout and walk rates, with both of those figures worse than league average. It was a disappointing season but he’s not far removed from a 2021 campaign where he struck out 34.2% of batters faced against a 9.9% walk rate. A 59% strand rate pushed his ERA up to 5.59 that year with advanced metrics feeling he deserved much better, such as a 3.15 xERA, 4.34 FIP and 3.11 SIERA.
Heller, 31, appeared in 31 major league games from 2016 to 2020, all of those with the Yankees. He has a career 2.59 ERA over those years, though that’s surely depressed by an unsustainable 98.4% strand rate. He struck out 21.7% of batters faced in that time, walking 10.9% of them and got grounders on 40.9% of balls in play. He spent some time last year with the Twins on a minor league deal, throwing 8 2/3 innings with a 9.35 ERA.
Burdi, 28 in March, was a first round selection of the White Sox in the 2016 draft. Unfortunately, injuries have taken a toll on his progress thus far, including 2017 Tommy John surgery. He eventually made 15 appearances over 2020 and 2021, throwing a combined 17 1/3 innings. Unfortunately, he posted a 7.79 ERA in that time with a 20.9% strikeout rate, 9.3% walk rate and 34.5% ground ball rate. He signed a minor league deal with the Nats for 2022 but was only healthy enough to throw 13 innings down on the farm, though he did post a 1.38 ERA in that small sample.
All three players will provide the Rays with some non-roster pitching depth and try to earn their way back to the majors. If either Burdi or Heller make their way onto the roster, they each still have one option year remaining, potentially giving Tampa some roster flexibility. Burdi has less than a year of service time and could be retained for future seasons cheaply, while Heller is over the three-year mark and would qualify for arbitration if holding onto a spot at season’s end. Hembree, however, is over six years of service and would qualify for free agency.
Braves, Kevin Pillar Agree To Minor League Deal
The Braves and outfielder Kevin Pillar are in agreement on a minor league deal, reports MLBTR’s Steve Adams. Pillar will make a $3MM salary if he cracks the club’s roster. He’s a client of All Bases Covered Sports Management.
Pillar, 34, was selected by the Blue Jays in the 32nd round of the 2011 draft. He worked his way up to the majors by 2013 and took over an everyday job in 2015, which he held with the Jays through 2018. Over those four seasons, Pillar got into 601 games and hit .263/.301/.401. That production was 12% below league average by measure of wRC+, but Pillar was able to provide value with his speed and defense. He stole 68 bases in that period while producing 57 Defensive Runs Saved and got a 29.4 grade from Ultimate Zone Rating.
The Jays went into a rebuild in the latter parts of that timeframe and they flipped Pillar to the Giants in April of 2019. That began the journeyman phase of Pillar’s career, as he’s suited up for the Giants, Red Sox, Rockies, Mets and Dodgers over the past few campaigns. He’s continued to hit at a similar rate but his work in the field has naturally slipped as he’s gotten deeper into his 30s.
The most significant variant for Pillar this year will likely be his health. He signed a minor league deal with the Dodgers last year and posted a huge .315/.412/.622 batting line in 36 Triple-A games. That production led to a 150 wRC+, indicating he was 50% above league average. He got selected to the big league team in May but was placed on the injured list after appearing in just four games due to a left shoulder fracture. That injury required surgery which was initially reported as “season-ending,” though Pillar did attempt a late-season comeback by starting a rehab assignment in September. There wasn’t quite enough runway for Pillar to return, however, and his season was limited to just those four contests.
For the Braves, two of their outfield jobs are spoken for by Ronald Acuña Jr. and Michael Harris II. The left field position is less settled, with various in-house options. Eddie Rosario. Marcell Ozuna, Sam Hilliard, Eli White and Jordan Luplow will likely be battling each other for either full- or part-time work with the big league club. If Pillar is healthy and looks good in spring or as the season gets going, he could work his way into the mix if an opportunity presents itself.
Pillar’s $3MM salary is larger than most players on minor league deals normally secure, which is somewhat noteworthy for a club that’s slated to go into luxury tax territory for the first time. Roster Resource currently pegs their competitive balance tax figure at $241MM, beyond the $233MM base threshold. Assuming they don’t find a way to shed some salary and dip back beneath the line, they’re lined up to pay a 20% tax on all spending that goes over the boundary, which would include Pillar’s salary if he makes the team.
Red Sox Have Received “Significant” Interest In Tanner Houck
Demand for controllable starting pitching is, as always, through the roof in Major League Baseball, but it’s in perhaps shorter supply than at any point in recent years. The Marlins are one of the few teams with starting pitching available on the trade market, as they’re reportedly open to offers on just about anyone other than ace Sandy Alcantara and top prospect Eury Perez. Other options are few and far between, though Chris Cotillo of MassLive.com writes that the Red Sox have received “significant” trade interest in righty Tanner Houck as teams explore alternatives to Miami’s starting pitching glut.
That’s not to say that a deal of Houck is expected or likely. Houck doesn’t have a definite role on Boston’s starting staff thanks to the presence of Chris Sale, Corey Kluber, James Paxton, Garrett Whitlock, Nick Pivetta and Brayan Bello, but the injury risk among that group means that Houck can’t be expressly ruled out of the running, either. Sale has pitched just 48 1/3 innings over the past two seasons, and Paxton has just 21 2/3 frames across the past three MLB seasons combined. Kluber rebounded with 164 innings in 2022 but prior to that had thrown just 116 2/3 innings over a three-year period himself.
Moreover, the 26-year-old Houck could yet find himself with a pivotal role in Boston’s bullpen after impressing as a reliever in 2022. Just four of Houck’s 32 appearances last year were starts; he tossed 43 1/3 innings out of the Red Sox’ bullpen and worked to a sterling 2.70 ERA with a solid 24.2% strikeout rate, 8.4% walk rate and 53% grounder rate. Overall, the former No. 24 overall draft pick logged a 3.15 ERA in 60 innings between his two roles, showing roughly average strikeout rates with slightly below-average command but above-average ground-ball tendencies.
It was the continuation of a strong start to Houck’s still-fledgling career. The hard-throwing righty made his debut when he started three games in the shortened 2020 season, and overall he’s pitched 146 innings of 3.02 ERA ball at the MLB level. However, he’s never topped 119 innings in a professional season, and his 2022 campaign ended in August when he required surgery to address a back injury.
Prior to his big league debut, Houck had some struggles against left-handed opponents, although he’s worked to incorporate a splitter, which has helped to remedy that issue. A hefty 89% of the splitters Houck has thrown over the past two seasons have come against left-handed batters, and in his career opponents have mustered an awful .115/.207/.231 output against the pitch.
Houck is controlled for another five seasons and won’t reach arbitration until after the 2024 campaign. As such, it’s only natural that opposing teams would inquire about his availability. That doesn’t necessarily mean a trade is looming, although the Boston Globe’s Alex Speier reported just two weeks ago that the Red Sox were open to dealing a big league pitcher — “potentially including Houck” — in the right deal. Cotillo, meanwhile, adds that the Sox would be more willing to part with Houck than either Whitlock or Bello, although again, that’s a far cry from saying Houck is someone the Sox are looking to move. That Speier report came before it was publicly known that Trevor Story’s entire 2023 season was in jeopardy following an elbow injury that necessitated internal brace surgery.
In the weeks since that report from Speier, the Red Sox have agreed to a one-year deal with outfielder Adam Duvall, whom they believe can handle center field for them, and brought in veterans like outfielder Greg Allen and catcher Jorge Alfaro on minor league deals. The Red Sox aren’t punting on the 2023 season in the wake of Story’s injury — not after already signing Kluber, Justin Turner, Masataka Yoshida, Kenley Jansen, Chris Martin and Joely Rodriguez for a combined $173.2MM.
As such, it stands to reason that any deal involving Houck would need to involve Major League talent heading back to Boston. The Sox could theoretically withstand the subtraction of Houck from the pitching staff thanks to those aforementioned bullpen additions and a decent crop of depth options in the rotation (which, in addition to the previously listed names, includes Josh Winckowski, Bryan Mata and Kutter Crawford). There’s also quite a bit of rotation depth still available in free agency, so the Sox could always look to backfill via the open market in the event that they trade a current starting pitcher.
Potential areas for improvement on the big league roster include the middle infield, where Enrique Hernandez and Christian Arroyo figure to play prominent roles following Story’s injury, and behind the plate, where the combination of Reese McGuire, Connor Wong and Alfaro could all vie for time. It’s feasible, too, that the Sox could still pursue a long-term option in center field, although those are also in short supply this winter and the addition of Duvall at least ostensibly lessens such a need.
For now, it seems the Sox plan to head to camp with the idea of Houck stretching out as a starter, then scale him back to a short relief role if necessary. That said, given the dearth of options for teams seeking rotation help on the trade market, this probably won’t be the last time Houck’s name pops up on the rumor mill in the weeks leading up to Spring Training. There’s no indication a deal is likely, but other teams will surely make efforts to pry Houck and others loose — particularly now that a major injury to Story has altered Boston’s 2023 outlook.
Rangers Sign Jacob Barnes To Minor League Deal
The Rangers announced four minor league deals today, with three of them being the previously reported deals for catcher Sandy León as well as right-handers Kyle Funkhouser and Zack Littell. The fourth deal is with right-hander Jacob Barnes. All four players will receive invitations to major league Spring Training.
Barnes, 33 in April, is a veteran that has appeared in the big leagues in each season since 2016. However, the 2022 campaign was strange for him in a couple of ways. For one thing, he bounced around quite a bit. He signed a minor league deal with the Tigers and made their Opening Day roster. He was designated for assignment in June and signed a minor league deal with the Mariners. The M’s selected him to their roster in July but designated him for assignment the next day without Barnes getting into a game. That was followed by another minor league deal with the Tigers, a release, a minors deal with the Yankees, cracking the Yankee roster in October, getting into a single game before being designated for assignment yet again.
Amid all those travels, he had an odd split in his strikeouts. Coming into 2022, he had punched out 24.4% of batters faced in his major league career. But last year, it was just 12.4% in 22 1/3 big league innings but a huge 32.9% rate in 18 Triple-A frames. Those diminished strikeout totals in the majors led to a 5.64 ERA on the season.
Strange year aside, Barnes has appeared in 252 MLB games to this point in his career with a 4.70 ERA, 23.3% strikeout rate, 9.9% walk rate and 49% ground ball rate. The club’s projected relievers on the 40-man roster are all in their 20s, though 32-year-old Jake Odorizzi could wind up in the bullpen as a long man. Aside from him, José Leclerc is the only other reliever to have surpassed four years in service time. If Barnes can crack the club’s roster, he no longer has options, meaning he would have to retain his spot or else be given the DFA treatment again. If he manages to hang on through the end of the season, the Rangers would have the option of retaining Barnes for 2024 via arbitration.
Rays Sign Elvin Rodríguez, Trevor Kelley To Minor League Deals
The Rays have signed right-hander Elvin Rodríguez to a minor league deal, reports Evan Petzold of The Detroit Free Press. Fellow righty Trevor Kelley also has a minor league deal with the club, per Marc Topkin of the Tampa Bay Times. Both players will receive invitations to major league Spring Training.
Rodríguez, 25 in March, began his professional career with the Angels but went to the Tigers as the player to be named later in the 2017 trade that sent Justin Upton to Anaheim. He worked his way up the minor league ladder and spent 2021 primarily in Double-A but with a brief move to Triple-A. Between the two stops, he made 18 starts and one relief appearance, tossing 77 2/3 innings with a 5.68 ERA, but he struck out 24.6% of batters faced and walked 8.6% of them.
Despite that high ERA, the Tigers added him to the roster in November of 2021 to prevent him from reaching minor league free agency. That allowed him to serve as optionable depth for the club in 2022, though his first taste of the majors didn’t go well, to put it mildly. Over five starts and two relief appearances, he tossed 29 2/3 innings with a 10.62 ERA. His 17.5% strikeout rate and 10.5% walk rate were both subpar and he allowed an incredible 12 home runs in that brief time. Things didn’t go much better on the farm, as tossed 99 1/3 innings in Triple-A with a 4.98 ERA.
Rodríguez was outrighted off the club’s roster in November but will now try to get a fresh start with the Rays. His new club will surely try to get better results out of a fastball that was in the 89th percentile in terms of spin last year. If they can succeed and Rodríguez earns his way onto their roster, he still has a couple of option years and just a small amount of service time, allowing them to retain him for the foreseeable future.
Kelley, 30, had some brief and unsuccessful time in the majors with the Red Sox in 2019 and the Phillies in 2020. He signed a minor league deal with the Brewers for 2022 and cracked the club’s roster in May. From that point on, he was optioned to Triple-A and recalled five times, moving on and off the roster as the club needed. He didn’t find much success in the majors, posting a 6.08 ERA in 23 2/3 innings. In 34 1/3 frames for Nashville, however, he registered a 2.36 ERA while striking out 30% of batters faced and walking just 7.1% of them.
The Brewers designated him for assignment when they acquired Bryse Wilson and Kelley cleared waivers. He was eligible to elect free agency by virtue of having a previous career outright and has used that opportunity to join the Rays. If he can crack their roster, he still has one option year and less than a full season of MLB service time.
Rangers, Marlins Among Teams Interested In Jurickson Profar
Outfielder Jurickson Profar is one of the top free agents that still remains unsigned and he is drawing plenty of interest around the league. He’s already been connected to the Yankees, Astros and Red Sox at various points throughout the winter and it seems there are a few more teams involved. Jon Morosi of MLB Network reports that the teams interested in Bryan Reynolds are keeping tabs on Profar, a group which includes the Marlins and Rangers.
Reynolds has been consistently in trade rumors for quite some time, which is fairly logical given that he’s emerged as a very good player on a rebuilding Pirates team. He won’t be a free agent until after 2025 and the team could find itself back in contention in that time, but there would also be sense in exchanging his final years of control for younger players that can continue to help the club beyond that timeframe. The Bucs could prolong their relationship with Reynolds by extending him, but recent reporting indicates the sides have been about $50MM apart in their discussions, suggesting a deal isn’t likely to get done anytime soon.
Various teams have tried to free Reynolds from Pittsburgh’s clutches over the past year or two and the player himself has even asked for a trade, but all reports have indicated that the Bucs have been sticking to a high asking price in any trade talks. Jon Heyman of The New York Post recently reported that they are looking for a return analogous to what the Nationals got in the Juan Soto deal. Given the difficulty in working something out with the Pittsburgh front office, it’s understandable that clubs would look to alternatives like Profar.
There are some similarities between the two players as both are switch-hitting outfielders. They’re actually not terribly far apart in age, despite Profar debuting all the way back in 2012. He was only 19 years old then and is now about to turn 30 next month. Reynolds is a couple of years younger, turning 28 in just over a week.
They are also both outfielders, though Reynolds has decidedly more value on defense given that he’s a passable center fielder. Teams will likely have varying views over exactly how passable he is there, since the advanced defensive metrics are split on how to grade his work up the middle. He’s accrued 4 Outs Above Average in his career at that spot but has -16 Defensive Runs Saved and a -7.1 from Ultimate Zone Rating. Profar, meanwhile, began his career as an infielder but has gradually spent more and more time in the outfield. Since 2019, he’s made brief appearances at second and first base but hasn’t appeared at shortstop or third base. Last year, the Padres kept him exclusively in left field. He did spend 156 2/3 innings in center field over 2020 and 2021 but wasn’t graded well there and is likely considered a corner outfielder by most clubs.
At the plate, Reynolds and Profar have admirable qualities, but in different ways. Both players are good at getting on base, with Reynolds posting a .345 OBP last year and .361 mark for his career. Profar is slightly behind in that regard, with a .331 OBP in 2022 and .322 overall. Reynolds is also ahead in the power department, hitting 27 home runs last year and 74 in his career thus far. Profar hit 15 last year and has only 78 in his career, despite more than 1,000 extra plate appearances compared to Reynolds. Profar’s work was enough for a 110 wRC+ last year, 10% better than league average, but behind the 125 that Reynolds managed.
There’s little doubting that Reynolds is a more enticing option than Profar but the latter option will cost only money, allowing the acquiring club to hang onto the pile of prospects they would theoretically send to Pittsburgh in a Reynolds deal. MLBTR predicted Profar could secure a two-year, $20MM deal at the start of the offseason. That was before the market really got going and surpassed the expectations of many observers, though Profar lingering on the market suggests no team has been eager to blow him away by surging beyond that vicinity.
The Rangers currently have a competitive balance tax calculation of $219MM, per the calculations of Roster Resource. Signing someone like Profar to about $10MM per year would start pushing them close to the $233MM luxury tax threshold. It’s unclear if that’s any kind of barrier for the club, but it’s something they would have to consider if they decide to bring Profar into the fold. The Marlins, meanwhile, are nowhere near the luxury tax but are in somewhat uncharted spending territory for them. Roster Resource has their payroll currently at $103MM. That’s well beyond last year’s $79MM mark, per Cot’s Baseball Contracts, and the highest since the Bruce Sherman-led group bought the team from Jeffrey Loria in 2017. It’s unknown how much more they have to work with but any further spending would continue to stretch them beyond comfort zone of the past few years.
Regardless of the final cost, there are logical reasons for both teams to pursue outfield upgrades. The Rangers have Adolis García in right field and Leody Taveras as a glove-first option in center. They’ve been on the hunt for left field upgrades, given that their current choices make up a mixed bag of imperfect options. Brad Miller, Josh Smith, Ezequiel Durán and Mark Mathias are on the roster, though they’ve all spent more time on the infield than the outfield in their careers. Furthermore, all but Mathias are coming off poor seasons at the plate. Bubba Thompson is a more straightforward solution since he’s an outfielder and can at least steal some bases, but he strikes out a ton and hit .265/.302/.312 in his major league debut.
The Marlins have been seeking outfield upgrades for quite some time but added a few options into the corners last year by signing Avisaíl García and Jorge Soler. Both players had disappointing seasons in 2022 but are still under contract for 2023, with Soler seemingly ticketed for plenty of time as the designated hitter after he dealt with back spasms in the later parts of last season. That could leave one corner available for someone like Profar, though they also have Bryan De La Cruz, Jesús Sánchez and JJ Bleday currently lined up to battle for the two spots next to Garcia. None of those three are truly established and an external addition could bump them all down the depth charts until they take steps forward in cementing themselves. De La Cruz hits right-handed and the other two from the left side, which could allow them to form a platoon in center with one player getting nudged to the bench or the minors.
Mets, Tomas Nido Agree To Two-Year Deal
The Mets have agreed to a two-year, $3.7MM contract with catcher Tomas Nido, reports Robert Murray of FanSided (Twitter link). The contract buys out his final two seasons of arbitration eligibility and will pay the ACES client $1.6MM in 2023 and $2.1MM in 2024.
Nido had been projected by MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz to earn $1.6MM in 2023. He’d originally reached a one-year agreement worth $1.575MM, but he’ll instead get a bump for the upcoming season and lock in his final two years of club control at fixed price points. The deal grants the Mets a bit of additional cost certainty beyond the current season and ensures that they’ll retain control over a strong defensive backup at an affordable rate.
The 28-year-old Nido has posted a .236/.275/.338 batting line in exactly 500 Major League plate appearances over the past three seasons. It’s tepid offense at best, and while he’s been slightly below-average in terms of preventing stolen bases (22% caught-stealing rate), Nido has thrived in other defensive aspects of the game. He’s drawn standout framing marks from each of Statcast, FanGraphs and Baseball Prospectus, the latter of which also grades him as well above-average in terms of blocking pitches in the dirt. Nido has tallied just 1132 innings hind the plate since Opening Day 2021 but nonetheless racked up a whopping 18 Defensive Runs Saved.
Nido, at one point, was one of four catchers on the Mets’ roster before they lined up with the Orioles on a trade sending James McCann to Baltimore. He’s now likely to open the season behind Omar Narvaez, but the Mets will have top prospect Francisco Alvarez looming in the minors as an heir-apparent who could quickly reach the Majors in the event of an injury to Narvaez. Alvarez, 21, reached the Majors briefly in 2022 and went 2-for-12 with a home run and a double.
There’s been some speculation about him potentially serving as a DH option for the Mets early in the year, but as SNY’s Andy Martino wrote this morning in the wake of the Mets’ one-year deal with Tommy Pham, Alvarez won’t be a DH at the Major League level. He’s instead expected to get everyday reps behind the plate in Triple-A Syracuse. Narvaez is playing under a two-year, $15MM contract, but the second season of that deal is a player option valued at $7MM. If he has even a decent season with the Mets, he’ll likely decline that option and return to the market, setting the stage for Alvarez and Nido to take over as the primary catching tandem.
Nido’s deal is a low-cost move for the Mets, but it still slightly elevates their luxury-tax bill on the season. Had Nido remained on the $1.575MM deal to which he’d previously agreed, the Mets would’ve only owed him that salary and paid a 90% tax on that sum (a combined $2.9925MM expenditure). Instead, Nido’s luxury hit will be based on the $1.85MM average annual value of his new contract. The new contract will tack on an additional $272,500 to the team’s luxury bill. Nido will be a free agent following the 2024 season.
Royals, Padres Among Teams Interested In Aroldis Chapman
Both the Royals and Padres have some level of interest free-agent lefty Aroldis Chapman, tweets Mark Feinsand of MLB.com. This comes just one day after the Marlins were also reported to have interest in the former Yankees, Cubs and Reds closer.
The 2022 season was a rough one for Chapman, who’ll turn 35 next month. The lefty’s fastball, which once averaged better than 101 mph, dropped to a 97.5 mph average in 2022. Simultaneously, his command troubles spike to their worst levels since back in 2011. Chapman’s 26.9% strikeout rate in 2022 was better than league-average but still a career-low by a wide margin, and he walked a massive 17.5% of his opponents, which is the second-worst mark of his career.
Chapman’s 4.46 ERA was passable but nevertheless the highest of his career, and he missed six weeks of the season with an Achilles injury in addition to a roughly three-week absence owing to a leg infection related to a recent tattoo he’d received. He was also left off the Yankees’ postseason roster after skipping a team workout
Kansas City has taken its share of low-cost gambles on former high-profile closers in recent years, inking Trevor Rosenthal prior to the 2020 season and also bringing former K.C. stars Wade Davis and Greg Holland back for buy-low reunion tours. Chapman would be a page out of a similar playbook.
With just an $85MM projected payroll (via Roster Resource) and plenty of uncertainty behind closer Scott Barlow, the Royals represent a sensible enough on-paper fit. They already have three potential southpaws for the ’pen, with Amir Garrett, Anthony Misiewicz and Richard Lovelady on hand, but Misiewicz does have a pair of minor league option years remaining. And, if Chapman were able to bounce back into form, he could potentially be someone they look to flip to another club as the trade deadline draws nearer.
As for the Padres, nary a free agent with any name value passes by without being connected to them. The Friars already have a deep bullpen, headlined by Josh Hader, Robert Suarez, Luis Garcia and a hopefully healthy Drew Pomeranz, but Chapman would add another big arm to the mix. Ownership and president of baseball operations A.J. Preller have shown a clear affinity for high-profile stars in recent years, even if some of those name-brand players have been past their peak production.
Then again, they’re also already sitting on a $251MM payroll, and Chapman could push them into the third tier of luxury penalization, given the projected $270.6MM currently on their luxury ledger. In terms of monetary penalization, the jump from adding Chapman likely wouldn’t be large. The Padres would pay a 42% tax on every dollar up to $273MM in luxury obligations, and that number would jump to 75% thereafter. However, presuming Chapman won’t command much more than a few million dollars on a one-year rebound deal, that sum won’t be particularly burdensome.
That said, there’s a greater cost to consider if the Padres want to continue spending in free agency. Exceeding the luxury tax threshold by more than $40MM also results in a team’s top pick in the subsequent year’s draft pushed back by 10 places. Tacking on even a $3MM salary for Chapman would come with something like $4MM in costs between his salary and luxury tax penalties, but would more importantly drop the Padres out of the top 30 in the 2024 draft while also reducing the size of their bonus pool. Further trades, of course, could always alter that calculus, but the Padres were recently reported to be approaching a “self-prescribed” spending limit. It wouldn’t be a surprise to learn that the point at which payroll begins to detrimentally impact future drafts is indeed that limit.
While much of the free-agent market moved at an accelerated pace this offseason, the market for left-handed relievers has been curiously slow. Taylor Rogers took until late December to land his three-year deal with the Giants, and Chapman joins the likes of Andrew Chafin, Matt Moore, Will Smith, Brad Hand and Zack Britton as a southpaw reliever of note that has yet to sign a team for the 2023 season.
Mets To Sign Tommy Pham
Jan. 20: Pham has passed his physical, tweets Nightengale. The outfielder will earn a $200K bonus upon reaching 225 plate appearances with the Mets, and he’ll unlock additional $200K bonuses for every 25th plate appearance thereafter, all the way up through 450 plate appearances. With the physical complete, the Mets should announce the deal sooner than later.
Jan. 18, 10:26am: It’s a one-year, $6MM contract for Pham, tweets Jon Heyman of the New York Post. USA Today’s Bob Nightengale adds that the contract contains $2MM of available incentives and is expected to be finalized Thursday.
10:08am: The Mets and Pham have agreed to terms on a contract, Martino tweets. The deal is pending a physical.
9:44am: The Mets have an offer on the table to free-agent outfielder Tommy Pham and is optimistic about completing a deal, reports SNY’s Andy Martino. The Mets also made offers to Andrew McCutchen and Adam Duvall, per the report, but McCutchen preferred to go back to his original team in Pittsburgh while Duvall had the opportunity for more playing time in Boston.
Pham, 35 in March, split the 2022 season between Cincinnati and Boston, batting a combined .236/.312/.374 with 17 home runs and eight stolen bases in 622 plate appearances. It was a down season overall, but Pham’s line included a stout .273/.338/.446 batting line against left-handed pitching.
Additionally, Pham’s batted-ball profile also serves as a portent for increased production in the future. His 92.2 mph average exit velocity ranked in the 93rd percentile of all big league hitters, while his 48.2% hard-hit rate ranked in the 89th percentile, per Statcast. Even if bat doesn’t bounce all the way back to the levels those numbers suggest, there’s a good chance he can be a useful platoon option. Also, Pham also still drew favorable rankings for his arm strength in the outfield (74th percentile) and average sprint speed (66th percentile). Defensive metrics panned his glovework on the whole (0 DRS, -6 OAA), but the tools are there for him to rebound in that capacity as well.
From 2015-19, Pham was one of the game’s most underrated outfielders, batting a combined .277/.373/.472 (130 wRC+) with a hefty 12.2% walk rate against a 23.3% strikeout rate. He’s been a slightly below-average hitter overall since that time, but given his speed, arm strength and solid production against lefties, he’s a nice bat to have on the bench.
Pham is mostly limited to left field at this point in his career — he has just 91 innings in center field an seven in right field since 2018 — but he’ll give the Mets some outfield insurance while perhaps serving as a right-handed complement to lefty DH Daniel Vogelbach. That’s especially true if the Mets look to move on from Darin Ruf after a disappointing couple months in Queens following last year’s acquisition at the trade deadline.
While Pham himself might not be a backup option to Brandon Nimmo in center field, adding him to the mix provides the Mets with some additional cover in the event of an outfield injury. For instance, both left fielder Mark Canha and (especially) right fielder Starling Marte have experience in center field, so either could shift to center should Nimmo need a day off or a trip to the IL, with Pham then slotting into left field and Marte/Canha covering the other two outfield slots.
The Mets also have 24-year-old Khalil Lee as a lefty-hitting outfielder who can fill in at all three spots, though he has a minor league option remaining. Pham’s addition creates the possibility of sending Lee to Triple-A Syracuse for regular playing time — a luxury the team may not have previously been able to afford. Previously, the Mets’ only outfielders on the 40-man roster all projected to be on the big league roster as well, so the extra depth fills a clear need.
On top of Pham’s $6MM, the Mets owe a 90% luxury tax of $5.4MM, bringing their total tab for the signing to $11.4MM. New York’s projected bottom-line payroll for the 2023 season jumps to a bit more than $356MM, with about $374MM in luxury-tax considerations on the books. That puts them in well into the top luxury bracket and sets the stage for the Mets to be a third-time payor in the 2024 season, which point they’d owe an even steeper 110% tax on every dollar spent above the top line. Owner Steve Cohen has shown little concern with such penalties, however, and Pham’s luxury hit will be a relative drop in the bucket compared to the sum the Mets were planning to pay Carlos Correa before concerns regarding his medicals scuttled the 12-year deal between the two parties.
