Nationals Sign Keibert Ruiz To Eight-Year Extension
TODAY: The Nationals have formally announced the deal, confirming it’s an eight-year contract with a pair of club options for 2031 and 2032. The full financial breakdown isn’t known, but Barry Svrluga (Twitter link) reports that the deal is somewhat front-loaded. Ruiz will receive a signing bonus, and he’ll earn $7MM in 2028, and $9MM in each of the 2029 and 2030 seasons. The second year of the extension also “has a higher salary than he would normally receive in a last pre-arb year.”
MARCH 10: The Nationals are in agreement with 24-year-old backstop Keibert Ruiz on an eight-year contract extension that guarantees $50MM, as first reported by Wow Deportes (Twitter link). Barry Svrluga of the Washington Post (Twitter link) reports that the contract also contains two club options. The Nationals are expected to formally announce the deal tomorrow, writes Mark Zuckerman of MASNsports.com. Ruiz is an Octagon client.
It’s a long-term commitment from the rebuilding club to a player they consider the franchise catcher. Washington acquired the switch-hitting Ruiz at the 2021 trade deadline as part of the blockbuster that sent Trea Turner and Max Scherzer to the Dodgers. Ruiz and starter Josiah Gray headlined a four-player return. Both were upper level prospects and Ruiz would get a look as Washington’s primary backstop by the end of the ’21 campaign.
After playing in 23 games down the stretch, Ruiz got the nod as the Opening Day catcher last season. He played in 112 games and tallied 433 plate appearances, though his season was cut short when he had to be hospitalized after he was hit in the groin area by a foul ball. Before that unfortunate conclusion, Ruiz hit .251/.313/.360 in his first full season at the big league level. That offense was a little better than that of the average catcher, with the league receiving a .228/.295/.368 line from the position.
Ruiz didn’t hit for a ton of power, only connecting on seven home runs. He drew walks in a modest 6.9% of his trips to the dish. Ruiz demonstrated excellent pure contact skills, though, striking out in fewer than 12% of his plate appearances while putting the bat on the ball with 86.3% of his swings. Only Blue Jays star Alejandro Kirk showed comparable contact skills at the position.
Putting the ball in play has been Ruiz’s calling card throughout his professional career. The Venezuela native appeared among top prospect lists for a few seasons during his time in the Los Angeles farm system. Evaluators have long lauded his hit tool, though reviews on his power upside and defensive acumen were more middling.
According to public metrics, Ruiz’s defensive performance as a rookie was mixed. Statcast pegged him as a slightly below-average pitch framer. He rated positively for his ability to keep the ball in front of him, though. Statcast estimated he blocked five more pitches than average over the course of 865 innings. His four passed balls were manageable. He did a solid job controlling the running game, throwing out 28.2% of attempted basestealers (more than three percentage higher than the league mark).
While Ruiz isn’t a finished product, his rookie season more or less fell in line with his longstanding prospect profile. He proved his elite contact skills can translate against big league pitching and adequately managed things defensively. The Nats are surely hopeful he’ll tap into a little more extra-base impact over time. He’d connected on 21 home runs in 72 Triple-A contests in 2021, and while that was surely aided by a favorable offensive environment, it at least hints at double-digit homer potential for Ruiz at the MLB level.
Ruiz had between one and two years of service time. He wouldn’t have been eligible for arbitration until after the 2024 campaign and wasn’t headed to free agency until the 2027-28 offseason. This deal forecloses any chance he’ll go through arbitration and buys out at least three free agent years. If the club were to exercise both options, they’d extend their window of control by five seasons on a deal that could reach a decade in length.
It’s technically the third-largest guarantee for a player in that service bracket. Ke’Bryan Hayes holds the official record with last spring’s eight-year, $70MM extension with the Pirates. Andrelton Simmons secured $58MM over seven seasons on a 2014 extension with the Braves. Michael Harris signed an eight-year, $72MM deal with Atlanta last summer that, for all intents and purposes, also fits into the service group. Harris technically had less than a year of service at the time of his deal, though he was all but certain to finish in the top two in Rookie of the Year balloting and secure a full service year by the time he signed in August.
Ruiz’s guarantee checks in a fair bit south of the Hayes and Harris contracts, though one could argue the latter two players were safer bets. Harris and Hayes are excellent defenders and had produced a little more offensively than Ruiz has to date, even if each comes with some questions about their overall impact potential at the plate. Early-career extensions for catchers haven’t been especially common; Ruiz becomes the first backstop with less than three years of service to sign an extension since Roberto Pérez in April 2017.
In exchange for upfront security, Ruiz concedes some long-term earning potential. That’s the case in every early-career extension of this ilk, though the potential ten-year term makes it particularly true in this instance. If Washington exercises both options, Ruiz wouldn’t get to free agency until leading into his age-34 campaign. Had he proceeded year-by-year through arbitration, he’d have first qualified for free agency at age 29.
Of course, doing so would’ve entailed the risk of injuries or underperformance derailing his career. Ruiz wasn’t a high-profile amateur signee, only signing for $140K back in 2014. It’s easy to understand the appeal of averting risk and securing the first life-changing payday of his career.
The Nationals, meanwhile, lock in a core player whose aging curve aligns with when the club should be more equipped to contend. They’re in for another non-competitive season in 2023 and look hard-pressed to compete by next year either. Ruiz is now locked in for a few years into the 2030’s, though, and the club obviously anticipates having plenty of chances to compete for a playoff spot in the medium to long-term future.
The contract’s financial breakdown hasn’t yet been reported. The deal has an average annual value of $6.25MM that’ll count evenly against the luxury tax ledger for its duration. That’s not a concern in the short term; Washington’s projected 2023 payroll is more than $100MM south of this year’s threshold. The organization has paid the CBT in years past, however, so it’s not out of the question they’ll again push towards that threshold a few years down the line if the team’s competitive window comes clearer into view. The ongoing uncertainty about the Lerner family’s ownership plans clouds the picture, though ownership is clearly at least willing to sign off on future-oriented moves of this nature.
Washington will continue to audition younger players to hopefully join Ruiz in the core over the next couple seasons. Gray, shortstop CJ Abrams, left-hander MacKenzie Gore and yet-to-debut prospects like James Wood and Robert Hassell have joined the organization in deadline blockbusters. Right-hander Cade Cavalli is a former first-round pick and a highly-regarded pitching prospect. Not everyone in that group will find success, of course, but there’s now no shortage of intriguing players who will try to establish themselves at Nationals Park over the coming seasons.
Image courtesy of USA Today Sports.
Harrison Bader Has Oblique Strain, Likely To Open Season On Injured List
TODAY: Speaking with Erik Boland and other reporters today, Boone suggested that Bader will need around six weeks of recovery time, so the outfielder will likely miss the first three weeks of the season.
MARCH 10: Yankees center fielder Harrison Bader has been diagnosed with a strained left oblique, manager Aaron Boone tells Newsday’s Erik Boland (Twitter link). There’s no timetable for his return just yet, but Bader is likely to begin the season on the injured list.
It’s yet another injury blow to a Yankees club that has been beset by health troubles this spring. The Yankees announced just yesterday that all three of Carlos Rodon, Lou Trivino and Tommy Kahnle will open the season on the injured list. Right-hander Frankie Montas, meanwhile, underwent shoulder surgery earlier in camp and is expected to miss the majority of the 2023 season.
Bader’s injury leaves the Yankees without a true center fielder, though both Aaron Hicks and Aaron Judge have ample experience at the position. Judge was the preferred option in center last year prior to Bader’s acquisition and activation from the injured list.
The injury will also likely lead to more outfield time for Giancarlo Stanton, which has already been under discussion. Utilityman Oswaldo Cabrera, who’d been vying for playing time in left field, figures to see an uptick of action in the corners as well. Further down the depth chart, Bader’s absence could lead to increased looks for former top prospect Estevan Florial or perhaps for non-roster invitees Rafael Ortega and/or Willie Calhoun. Ortega, in particular, is a capable center fielder.
It’s a tough start to the year for Bader, who hoped for a healthier 2023 season after a lengthy bout with plantar fasciitis limited him to just 86 games in 2022. The Yankees acquired Bader even while he was on the injured list — sending lefty Jordan Montgomery to the Cardinals — with an eye toward the postseason and toward 2023. Bader struggled through 49 plate appearances down the stretch after being activated in September, but he caught fire during the postseason, batting .333/.429/.833 with five home runs in just 35 plate appearances.
At his best, the 28-year-old Bader is a flat-out elite defender in center field with above-average pop. His offensive profile has changed over the years, as his high-walk and high-strikeout tendencies have given way to more balls in play but fewer walks and, in 2022, less power.
Overall, Bader is a career .245/.317/.405 hitter (97 wRC+), and while injuries have routinely been a problem — in part due to the reckless abandon with which he plays defense — he has clear 20-homer upside if he can remain healthy. Bader’s defensive ratings slipped in 2022, which is perhaps not surprising for a center fielder dealing with a foot injury, but through 3579 career innings in center field, he’s posted 38 Defensive Runs Saved and an even more massive 50 Outs Above Average.
The injury is also unfortunate for Bader on a personal level, as he was surely hoping to play a full slate of games in what will be his final season before reaching the open market as a first-time free agent. A mostly healthy season from Bader could still position him as the top center fielder in what’ll be a thin market at the position next winter. Other center fielders up for free agency include Cody Bellinger, Michael A. Taylor and Enrique Hernandez.
Mitch Haniger Suffers Grade 1 Oblique Strain
New signing Mitch Haniger‘s status for Opening Day is unclear, after the Giants outfielder suffered a Grade 1 oblique strain yesterday, as John Shea of the San Francisco Chronicle reports. Haniger suffered the injury as a result of an awkward swing on Friday. He had been due to play in San Francicso’s game against the Rockies that day, but was scratched.
Haniger, 32, was San Francisco’s biggest off-season investment this winter, signing with the team on a three-year, $43.5MM deal and the Giants seemingly remain hopeful of Haniger featuring in their March 30 opener against the Yankees.
“I think anything is possible at this point. We’re still figuring out the return-to-play timeline. Obliques are challenging. Yes, I have had them. Sometimes they feel like they’re 100% healed, but then they’re not always 100% healed. I don’t have information yet that Mitch won’t be ready for the season for us. Maybe on the same track, maybe just less reps in spring training,” manager Gabe Kapler told reporters.
Grade 1 strains typically require a four week recovery period, which would obviously put Haniger’s availability for Opening Day in major doubt, but each strain is different so there’s a chance he recovers sooner. Haniger wound up with a .246/.308/.429 line with 11 home runs over 247 plate appearances last season for the Mariners, and is set to be the Giants everyday right fielder this year.
The signings of Haniger and Michael Conforto had appeared to push Joc Pederson into more of a full-time DH role, but the left-handed hitter could see some time in the corner outfield if Haniger isn’t ready for the start of the season. The other candidate to fill in would be Austin Slater, who currently projects as the team’s fourth outfielder. J.D. Davis has also seen time in the outfield, while the team has Stephen Piscotty with them as a non-roster player this spring, but for now they’ll hope Haniger can recover in time to make his debut on Opening Day.
Rangers Trade Mark Mathias To Pirates
March 11: The Rangers announced they’re getting right-hander Ricky DeVito from the Pirates as the player to be named later. DeVito, 24, was acquired from Atlanta in the Richard Rodriguez deal, and worked to a 5.40 ERA across 70 innings at High-A last season (six starts, 29 relief appearances).
March 8: The Rangers announced Wednesday that they’ve traded infielder/outfielder Mark Mathias to the Pirates in exchange for a player to be named later. Texas designated Mathias for assignment over the weekend in order to open a 40-man roster spot for newly signed reliever Will Smith. The Pirates announced that righty Max Kranick, who’s recovering from Tommy John surgery, has been transferred to the 60-day injured list to open a spot on the 40-man roster.
Mathias, 28, comes to the Pirates with a minor league option and five years of team control remaining. He’s seen action in part of two big league seasons — 2020 with the Brewers and 2022 with Milwaukee and Texas. He’s logged just 127 plate appearances in that time but carries a solid .256/.307/.462 batting line (114 wRC+) with six homers, six doubles, a 7.1% walk rate and a more troubling 29.1% strikeout rate.
Mathias lost the entire 2021 season to a torn labrum that required shoulder surgery. It was the second shoulder surgery for Mathias, who also had a procedure performed back in his college days. He returned to post a huge .318/.421/.518 batting line in 50 Triple-A games with the Brewers in 2022. Milwaukee also carried him on the big league roster for six games, but Mathias was traded to Texas prior to the deadline in the deal that sent righty Matt Bush to the Brewers.
The versatile Mathias could crack the Pirates’ Opening Day roster in a bench role, though his remaining minor league option means he’s not a lock to do so. Still, he’s played all four infield positions and all three outfield spots in his professional career, albeit with just one lone inning in center field with the Brewers in 2020. He’s moved around the diamond consistently in the Majors, with no more than 51 innings played at any single position (despite a total of 292 defensive innings under his belt).
While he’s never been regarded as a plus defender at any position, Mathias can play pretty much anywhere. He doesn’t have huge power, but he’s a career .286/.377/.466 hitter in 715 Triple-A plate appearances and has stacked up 21 homers, 41 doubles, three triples and 26 steals (in 31 attempts) in 173 total games at that level.
Second base has been Mathias’ most frequent position in the minors, and that happens to be the Pirates’ least-settled spot in the lineup, so he’s a particularly sensible add for Pittsburgh at a low cost of acquisition. He’ll compete with Rodolfo Castro, Ji Hwan Bae and Nick Gonzales for playing time there throughout the remainder of camp.
MLBTR Chat Transcript
Click here to read a transcript of this morning’s live chat with Simon Hampton.
Injury Notes: Song, Nevin, Rosenthal, Sadler
Phillies Rule 5 pick Noah Song has been shut down due to back tightness, per Alex Coffey of the Philadelphia Inquirer. He’s had an MRI and will be reevaluated next week, but it appears he won’t be ready to start the season.
Song, 25, is an interesting case, given he’s spent the past three years in the navy after being drafted by the Red Sox in the fourth round of the 2019 draft. He’s also not been fully discharged, only placed in active reserve, which means he’ll be able to play baseball. It does mean he’ll still have navy commitments though, with an earlier report stating he’s effectively on part-time duty, which still requires one weekend per month and two full weeks each year. It’s not clear how that would’ve played out over the season.
In any case, Song was looking to get back up to speed quickly after three years out. As a Rule 5 draftee, the Phillies would have to keep him on the active roster for the entire season, or place him on waivers and send him back to the Red Sox if he clears. The injury does change things somewhat, as should Song open the season on the injured list the Phillies can still send him on a rehab stint to the minors for up to 30 days. He still can’t be optioned to the minors, but the Phillies would just need to ensure he spends at minimum 90 days on the active roster this season.
Here’s some other injury notes from around the game:
- Evan Woodbery of MLive relays that Tyler Nevin‘s MRI on his oblique showed a Grade 1 strain. The Tigers said yesterday that Nevin’s strain was “mild”, but offered no other details on when he might be available. As Woodbery says, MLB’s Health and Injury Tracking System says hitters typically take 27 days to recover from a Grade 1 strain. That’s not a concrete number, but it would appear to put Nevin in doubt for Opening Day. Nevin, acquired from the Orioles this winter, was competing for a bench spot on the Tigers roster this year. The 25-year-old hit .197/.299/.261 with two home runs across 184 plate appearances for Baltimore last year.
- Sticking with the Tigers, and right-hander Trevor Rosenthal threw a bullpen yesterday and felt great, Woodbery reports. He’ll throw a live bullpen on Tuesday, with the hope being that he’ll be ready to step into a live game after that. Rosenthal, signed to a minor league deal by the Tigers this winter, hasn’t appeared in the big leagues for the past two seasons due to a range of injuries, including thoracic outlet syndrome, hip labrum surgery and a recurring hamstring injury. While it wouldn’t be a surprise to see Rosenthal need a little longer than Opening Day to be ready, the former All Star looks a good chance to get some opportunities in Detroit’s bullpen this year.
- The Mariners won’t have right-hander Casey Sadler up to speed by Opening Day, but he is making progress in his return from rotator cuff and labrum surgery, as Ryan Divish of the Seattle Times reports. Sadler missed the entire 2022 season, but faced hitters for the first time yesterday in a live batting practice session at Seattle’s spring training complex. Sadler, who was designated for assignment this winter but re-signed with the team on a minor league deal, put in easily his best season in 2021, working to a 0.67 ERA over 40 1/3 innings. It’s unclear what’s next for the former 25th round pick, but he’ll continue to work his way back with a view to regaining his spot in Seattle’s bullpen sometime this season.
Yankees Notes: Kiner-Falefa, Judge, Center Field
As youngsters Oswald Peraza and Anthony Volpe make strong cases to take over the Yankees’ starting shortstop role, there’s been plenty of speculation over the future of Isiah Kiner-Falefa. That speculation has only intensified as the Yankees have announced a series of injuries that’ll affect their roster over the opening few weeks of the season and beyond.
Kiner-Falefa is owed $6MM this year, and does appear to be lagging behind in the race to win the shortstop job. The Yankees have been giving him time at second and third base, and plan to work him out in the outfield this spring, which suggests they may view him as more of a utility player at this point. Yet the team already has the highly impressive Oswaldo Cabrera capable of bouncing round the diamond as a utility option, and he’ll only earn the league minimum in 2023.
Now, with the Yankees dealing with rotation, bullpen and outfield injuries to Carlos Rodon, Frankie Montas, Lou Trivino, Tommy Kahnle and Harrison Bader, it would make some sense for the team to deal from their infield depth to address other areas. According to Brendan Kuty and Chris Kirschner of The Athletic, the Yankees have had conversations with the Dodgers and Rockies over Kiner-Falefa. It’s not known the exact timeline or extent of those conversations, but it’s worth noting the Dodgers checked in on Kiner-Falefa early in the off-season prior to acquiring Miguel Rojas from the Marlins.
General manager Brian Cashman addressed the trade market to reporters, and while he didn’t specifically name Kiner-Falefa (or any other infielders), he certainly didn’t close the door on a deal involving their infielders before the start of the regular season.
“I would say typically trade conversations usually are a bit more serious in the second part of camp than the first part. I do know that’s an area of strength for this franchise right now in real time. So if somebody is looking for help, we wouldn’t be surprised if they’re knocking on our door,” Cashman said.
A trade could help them address their thinning rotation and bullpen stock, but even with Bader on the shelf for a while, it doesn’t appear the outfield is a pressing need. As Kuty notes in a separate piece, Bader’s injury likely means a temporary return to center field for Aaron Judge. That would allow the Yankees to give Giancarlo Stanton more at bats in right field, with Cabrera and Aaron Hicks likely to handle left. Rafael Ortega and Estevan Florial are other candidates to fill in with Bader out, but it appears Hicks – a career center fielder who moved to left last year – is not among them, with Kuty noting it seems the Yankees prefer to keep him in left.
Speaking of Judge, Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic sheds some more light on the high profile free agency of the new Yankees captain. While it’s been widely reported that the Yankees’ decision to tack on a ninth-year and take the total value of the contract to $360MM sealed the deal, there’s been a little bit of uncertainty over the extent of the Padres late interest in the slugger. According to Rosenthal, the Padres put forward a deal in the range of $415MM over at least 12 years.
Minor MLB Transactions: Pelham, Shore
A pair of NL West teams recently added some pitching depth via minor league deal:
- The Padres agreed to a non-roster pact with southpaw CD Pelham, according to his transactions tracker at MLB.com. The 28-year-old adds some bullpen depth to open the season with Triple-A El Paso. Pelham has ten big league games under his belt, all of which came as a member of the 2018 Rangers. He threw 7 2/3 innings that year, allowing six runs on 12 hits. The South Carolina native has a 5.31 ERA over parts of six minor league campaigns. Pelham spent last season in the Cubs organization, splitting the year between Double-A Mississippi and Triple-A Iowa. Over 41 1/3 combined frames, he worked to a 4.31 ERA with a 23.6% strikeout percentage and a lofty 14.4% walk rate.
- The Giants have added right-hander Logan Shore on a non-roster deal, per the MLB.com transactions log. A University of Florida product, Shore went to the A’s in the second round of the 2016 draft. He was dealt to Detroit as one of two players returned in the 2018 Mike Fiers trade. Shore has spent the past few seasons at the upper levels of the Tigers system but never earned an MLB call. He spent all of last year with Triple-A Toledo, working more out of the bullpen than the rotation for the first time in his career. The 28-year-old struggled to a 5.68 ERA through 52 1/3 frames, striking out a below-average 15.9% of batters faced against a 9.8% walk rate.
Mariners Notes: Castillo, Marlowe, Larsen
The Mariners made one of the biggest splashes of last summer’s trade deadline when they brought in Luis Castillo from the Reds. The deal sent out four prospects, including two players generally regarded among the top 100 minor league talents in Noelvi Marte and Edwin Arroyo. At the time, Castillo was in his penultimate season of arbitration eligibility, but the M’s foreclosed any chance of him departing anytime soon. In September, the righty signed a five-year, $108MM extension that runs through 2027.
Castillo recently looked back on the pair of transactions, telling Bobby Nightengale of the Cincinnati Enquirer he’d initially hoped to sign a long-term deal to stay in Cincinnati. “I can’t really say anything because that’s obviously negotiations between the team and my agent,” he told Nightengale via interpreter. “Of course, I would’ve liked to stay. I had a family there and was there quite some time.” The two-time All-Star added he acclimated to Seattle more quickly than he’d anticipated, however, pointing to the presence of former Cincinnati teammates Eugenio Suárez and Jesse Winker on the Mariners roster.
The Reds and Castillo had discussed extension parameters before the trade, though general manager Nick Krall told reporters after the swap that the sides hadn’t been close. That wasn’t surprising, as Cincinnati has gone into a rebuild over the past couple seasons and shipped out a number of big leaguers for further off young talent. Seattle is firmly in win-now mode, with Castillo joining Robbie Ray, Logan Gilbert and George Kirby in a strong front four.
In other situations out of Seattle:
- Outfield prospect Cade Marlowe recently suffered a right oblique strain, he told reporters this afternoon (relayed by Ryan Divish of the Seattle Times). The 25-year-old described the strain as very mild but will soon meet with training staff to determine a recovery plan. Even minor oblique strains can sideline players for multiple weeks, so the injury could delay Marlowe’s big league debut. A left-handed hitter, he raked at a .291/.380/.483 clip with 20 home runs and 36 stolen bases through 120 Double-A contests last season. Marlowe secured a late-season call to Triple-A and garnered some consideration for a depth role at the MLB level headed into the postseason. That never transpired, though Marlowe was added to the 40-man roster over the winter and figures to debut at some point during the upcoming campaign. Seattle has Julio Rodríguez and Teoscar Hernández locked into two outfield spots, with Jarred Kelenic and AJ Pollock presumably set for a platoon in the final position. The M’s will already be without Taylor Trammell well into the season after he underwent hand surgery last month.
- There’s another injury further down the outfield depth chart. Divish tweets that non-roster outfielder Jack Larsen fractured a hamate bone in his hand and will undergo surgery. The 28-year-old Larsen spent most of last season in Double-A, where he hit .269/.371/.407 with an excellent 13.6% walk percentage across 528 plate appearances. He earned the briefest of big league promotions, appearing in one game and striking out in his only MLB at-bat. Seattle ran him through outright waivers in August, keeping him in the upper minors without a 40-man roster spot. Larsen wasn’t likely in consideration for an Opening Day role but he’d have served as a depth possibility if healthy. He’ll surely start the season on the minor league injured list now.
Brown: Astros Likelier To Explore Extension Talks With Altuve, Bregman Next Offseason
Astros general manager Dana Brown has provided frequent updates throughout Spring Training regarding the club’s extension discussions with a number of players. After Houston got a deal done with Cristian Javier early in the spring, Brown expressed varying levels of optimism about the chances of productive talks with the likes of Kyle Tucker, Framber Valdez, Alex Bregman and Jose Altuve.
Over the past few days, however, Brown has cast doubt on any short-term agreements with Tucker or Valdez. He pointed to yesterday afternoon as a loose target date for extensions with either player (though he clarified it wasn’t an official deadline before cutting talks). No deal has materialized, and Brown similarly indicated it’s unlikely there’ll be any forthcoming contracts with Bregman or Altuve.
Speaking with Chandler Rome of the Houston Chronicle, the first-year GM pointed to next offseason as a likelier target for deals with either player. “It’s probably going to be more like next year,” Brown said. “We made it clear that we want to keep them both around. This is part of getting through (2025), getting to (2026), some more time to replenish the system without overhauling the roster.”
While Brown didn’t walk back any comments from earlier in exhibition play, it’s a departure from some of the enthusiasm he’d expressed a few weeks ago. He’d told reporters in mid-February the club was hoping to make both Altuve and Bregman career-long Astros. The GM indicated at the time that he’d said as much to agent Scott Boras, who represents both players.
Of course, putting talks on the back-burner doesn’t rule that out for either player. Both Altuve and Bregman have already signed early-career extensions (two, in the former’s case) and remain under contract for two more years. Altuve will make $26MM in each of the next couple seasons, while Bregman is due $28.5MM annually through 2024.
Altuve is trending towards the open market in advance of his age-35 season. He’s not yet shown any signs of slowing down, as he’s coming off one of the best years of his career. He hit .300/.387/.533 with 28 home runs, a career-best 10.9% walk rate and an excellent 14.4% strikeout percentage in 604 plate appearances. Outside of the 60-game schedule, Altuve has remained one of the sport’s top offensive players.
Bregman is slated to hit free agency headed into his age-31 campaign. His bat has taken a step back from its MVP-caliber level of 2018-19, but he’s remained a well above-average hitter. Bregman is coming off a .259/.366/.454 line with 23 longballs and more walks than strikeouts (13.3% versus 11.7%) through 656 trips to the dish. Few hitters can match that control of the strike zone, and Bregman generally pairs that consistently strong offense with plus defensive marks at third base.
The Astros head into the 2023 campaign with a luxury tax payroll calculated by Roster Resource around $218MM. That’s about $15MM shy of the base threshold. Houston has once paid the CBT, going narrowly above the mark in 2020. They have a little over $100MM in estimated CBT commitments by the 2025 campaign, when new deals for Altuve and/or Bregman would ostensibly begin.
Tucker and Valdez will each be in their final season of arbitration eligibility that year barring extensions. Brown and owner Jim Crane could be faced with some difficult decisions a year or two down the line, though the club is in very strong shape for the immediate future. Of the current roster, only veterans Michael Brantley and Martín Maldonado and relievers Phil Maton and Ryne Stanek are headed towards free agency next winter.