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Phillies Notes: MacPhail, Front Office, Payroll

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As Andrew McCutchen celebrates his 34th birthday today, let’s check out some Phillies-related items…

  • Though owner John Middleton recently gave a strong public endorsement to team president Andy MacPhail, multiple sources tell the Philadelphia Inquirer’s Scott Lauber that Middleton would prefer MacPhail either retires from his post a year early, or at least steps away from baseball operations duties.  Such a move would allow for a smoother transition for a front office that is searching for a new GM after Matt Klentak stepped down from the post, as a new president of baseball operations and GM could both be hired in tandem, as opposed to hiring a general manager now and then a new president next offseason.  Staying with the combo of MacPhail as president and interim GM Ned Rice through 2021 “would seem anathema to Middleton” considering that he clearly feels changes are needed for the Phils.
  • Of the 20 Phillies players who are free agents, arbitration-eligible, or controlled by club options for 2021, The Athletic’s Matt Gelb figures only three (arb-eligibles Rhys Hoskins, Zach Eflin, and Andrew Knapp) “are locks to return” next season.  Any of the other 17 could conceivably be non-tendered or let walk depending on what kind of budgetary cuts are coming to the Philadelphia payroll, or how the Phils might need to reallocate funds to pursue other needed roster upgrades.  J.T. Realmuto and Didi Gregorius are among that group of 17 players, so others could be let go to free up the funds necessary to re-sign at least one of that duo.

Red Sox Ownership Group Exploring Taking Company Public

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Fenway Sports Group LLC is in negotiations with special purpose acquisition company RedBall Acquisition Corp that would eventually see Fenway Sports (owners of the Red Sox and Liverpool FC of the Premier League) go public, Cara Lombardo and Miriam Gottfried of the Wall Street Journal report.

The proposed merger would eventually see Fenway Sports valued at $8 billion (including debt) after going public.  RedBall would spend roughly $1.575 billion to become minority partners in this overall enterprise, with Red Sox owner John Henry and his Fenway Sports Group partners retaining majority control.

As Lombardo and Gottfried put it, “the talks are in the early innings and could still fall apart,” so it could still be some time before we see any concrete news.  And, it could be that the biggest impact takes place on the soccer front rather than the baseball front, as Lombardo and Gottfried hear that a Fenway Sports/RedBall partnership could look to buy more soccer clubs around Europe.  RedBall are already the majority owners of Toulouse FC, buying the French team last July.

Perhaps the most intriguing baseball-related aspect of this deal is that longtime Athletics executive Billy Beane is RedBall’s co-chair.  (A’s minority owner Lew Wolff is also on the board.)  The other co-chair, Gerry Cardinale, also has some significant MLB ties, as Cardinale sits on the Yankees’ board and was involved in the development of the YES Network — Cardinale’s private equity firm, RedBird Capital, still owns a minority share of YES.

Should the Fenway Sports/RedBall venture go forward, it’s hard to imagine Beane would continue to remain with the A’s if he is that heavily involved in the ownership group of a rival team’s parent company.  Following the 2018 season, Beane signed a contract extension of unknown length to remain as the Athletics’ executive VP of baseball operations.  Beane also has a four percent ownership stake in the A’s, as per an earlier contract extension from back in 2005.

Rays Name Blake Snell As ALCS Game 1 Starter

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After defeating the Yankees last night in a climatic Game 5 victory, the Rays will move from the ALDS almost directly into the American League Championship Series, beginning Sunday night in San Diego.  The Rays announced that left-hander Blake Snell will be on the mound to start Game 1 against the Astros, making it three postseason series openers in a row for the former AL Cy Young Award winner.

Snell started Game 1 of the Rays’ wild card series with the Blue Jays, earning the win after tossing 5 2/3 shutout innings.  It was a different story in Game 1 of the ALDS, as New York struck for four runs (three on solo homers) in five innings of work against Snell, who allowed six hits and two walks while striking out four batters.

That outing marked Snell’s only ALDS appearance, so he’ll head into Sunday’s game on five full days of rest.  The extra day has generally benefited Snell during his career, as he has a 2.78 ERA, 2.94 K/BB rate, and 10.7 K/9 in 44 career starts on five days’ rest, as opposed to a 3.72 ERA in 43 career starts on the normal four days’ rest.

The Astros didn’t excel against left-handed pitching this season, finishing 20th of 30 teams in wRC+ (94) and slugging percentage (.403), 22nd in batting average (.232), and 26th in OBP (.299) against southpaws in 2020.  Of course, the playoffs have been a much different story for Houston’s offense, as the Astros have been tearing the cover off the ball over six games against the Twins and Athletics.  The Astros’ postseason OPS against lefties (.846) is actually higher than their OPS against right-handers (.836).

While no announcement has yet been made, Charlie Morton seems like the logical candidate to start Game 2 for the Rays.  Morton started Game 3 of the ALDS on Wednesday, and thus be lined up for Game 2 of the ALCS on regular rest.

Free Agent Faceoff: Gausman v. Stroman

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The upcoming offseason’s free-agent pitching market is not flush with ace-caliber talent. There’s Trevor Bauer, who should sign the richest deal in free agency (at least on an annual basis), and then a slew of hurlers with their share of warts. For those who can’t afford Bauer or the many bidders who lose out on him, there will be a shortage of high-caliber talent. Kevin Gausman and Marcus Stroman are likely the two best pending free-agent starters beyond Bauer, which doesn’t seem all that encouraging.

While both Gausman and Stroman have logged at least OK numbers for most of their careers, neither has been a top-level starter. For instance, the soon-to-be 30-year-old Gausman is only a year removed from the Braves placing him on waivers, but he was a capable starter with the Orioles before then and a good reliever with the Reds after that.

Gausman settled for a one-year, $9MM contract with the Giants last offseason, though that proved to be a great investment for the club. He wound up making 10 starts in 12 appearances as a Giant and pitching to a 3.62 ERA/3.09 FIP with 11.92 K/9 and 2.41 BB/9 across 59 2/3 innings. Among 81 pitchers who accumulated 50-plus frames, Gausman finished seventh in swinging-strike rate, 14th in K/BB ratio and 15th in FIP. There’s a lot to like about that combination, especially for someone who averages around 95 mph on his fastball.

Stroman, who will also turn 30 before next season, is the more accomplished hurler than Gausman. The former Blue Jay and current Met has recorded a 3.76 ERA/3.64 FIP through 146 games (140 starts) and 849 1/3 frames since he debuted in 2014. Stroman continued that sort of production last year between the teams, and though he doesn’t throw as hard as Gausman, he has overcome a relative lack of velocity with a high amount of grounders and a low number of walks. The problem for Stroman as he nears free agency is that he didn’t pitch at all in 2020 because of coronavirus-related concerns. You can’t blame Stroman for exercising caution, but it remains to be seen whether taking the season off will affect him on the market.

Now, considering the lack of quality starters going into the offseason, Gausman and/or Stroman could be in line for qualifying offers and fairly expensive multiyear pacts. Which player do you think should earn more? (Poll link for app users)

Yankees v. Rays: Who Will Advance?

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The rival Yankees and Rays entered the season as the two favorites in the AL East, and they did indeed finish atop the division. The Rays handily outdid the Yankees, though, finishing with a 40-20 record to New York’s 33-27 mark. The Rays got there in part because they dominated the Yankees in the regular season with eight victories in the teams’ 10 contests. However, the clubs have been much more evenly matched in their ALDS showdown. At 2-2, they’ll meet for the decisive Game 5 of the series on Friday.

To this point, the offensive excellence of designated hitter Giancarlo Stanton – who already has four home runs in the series – has led the Yankees. In all likelihood, though, New York will need a sterling performance from ace Gerrit Cole, a 30-year-old who’s starting on short rest for the first time in his career, in order to advance. The club signed Cole for this type of game when it landed the ex-Pirate and Astro on a record contract worth $324MM over nine years last offseason. Cole has since gone 2-0 in the playoffs, including a Game 1 victory against the Rays, and allowed five earned runs on 12 hits with a 21:2 K:BB ratio over 13 innings.

With a payroll that falls well short of the Yankees’, the Rays have used a mix of creativity and shrewdly acquired talent to earn a place among the game’s elite teams. They revolutionized the opener strategy a couple years ago, and they won’t be afraid to turn to it yet again Friday. Righty Tyler Glasnow, Cole’s former Pirates teammate, will take the ball in Game 5 at the start; however, Glasnow’s only on two days’ rest, and manager Kevin Cash said on Friday that the Rays will utilize 2018 AL Cy Young winner Blake Snell early if there’s a need for it, per Marc Topkin of the Tampa Bay Times. Snell could further strengthen a bullpen that was one of the majors’ best during the regular season.

So far in the series, the Yankees have outscored Glasnow, Snell & Co. by a 23-19 count. But none of that matters heading into a do-or-die Game 5. Which team do you expect to finish with more runs Friday and advance to face the Astros in the ALCS?

(Poll link for app users)

Athletics Hope To Retain Marcus Semien

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With the Athletics’ season having ended in disappointing fashion in an ALDS loss to the Astros, they’re turning their focus to important winter matters. The A’s have multiple notable pending free agents, including Marcus Semien, and they hope to retain the shortstop, general manager David Forst informed Martin Gallegos of MLB.com and other reporters on Friday.

“I told him we would love to have him back here,” Forst said to Semien in a text message. “We’ve had an open line of communication with him and his agent. That will certainly be one of the topics for this offseason.”

A year ago at this time, Semien looked like one of the premier players in baseball. He was then coming off an MVP-caliber effort that saw him slash .285/.369/.522 with 33 home runs, 10 stolen bases and 7.6 fWAR in a 162-game, 747-plate appearance season. Prior to that, Semien was closer to a league-average hitter, and he returned to that form in 2020. The 30-year-old concluded with a .223/.305/.374 mark and seven homers over 236 PA, which won’t serve him well as he nears his first trip to free agency.

If the A’s aren’t able to extend Semien in the next few weeks, they’ll have to decide whether to hand him a qualifying offer worth $18.9MM. But they’ll have to make the same choice with elite reliever Liam Hendriks, and it’s hard to believe the small-budget A’s would risk committing so much money to both players. Regardless, if Semien does become a free agent, he’ll join Didi Gregorius, Andrelton Simmons and soon-to-be posted KBO star Ha-Seong Kim as one of the top shortstops on the market.

Nationals Outright 4 Players

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The Nationals announced that infielder Adrian Sanchez and three right-handers – Aaron Barrett, Austen Williams and Paolo Espino – have cleared waivers and been outrighted to Triple-A Fresno. Meanwhile, the club has reinstated catcher Tres Barrera from the restricted list. Washington now has 37 players on its 40-man roster.

The 30-year-old Sanchez saw time in each season from 2017-19, but he only managed a .263/.280/.331 line and failed to hit a home run during that 166-plate appearance span.

Barrett was a solid part of the Nationals’ bullpen from 2014-15, but injuries (including Tommy John surgery) have limited him to four innings since then. He threw just 1 2/3 frames for the Nats this year. Williams didn’t factor in for the disappointing Washington club in 2020, while Espino totaled six innings of three-run ball.

Barrera, meantime, is back on the 40-man roster after receiving an 80-game suspension for performance-enhancing drugs in July. The 26-year-old, who spent most of 2019 in Double-A but did have a brief debut with the Nats, denied ever “knowingly” taking a banned substance.

Adam Morgan Undergoes Flexor Tendon Surgery

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Oct. 9: The Phillies announced that Morgan has undergone a flexor tendon repair procedure and will require six to nine months to recover.

Oct. 8: Phillies left-hander Adam Morgan is set to undergo surgery on his throwing elbow tomorrow.  Morgan’s wife Rachel revealed the news in a post on her Instagram past, and NBC Sports Philadelphia’s Jim Salisbury added that the surgery will address a flexor pronator injury.  Salisbury estimates a six-to-eight month recovery time for Morgan, based on past timelines for other injured pitchers undergoing similar procedures.

This isn’t the first time that Morgan has dealt with such an injury, as injured list stints for both a forearm strain and a flexor strain limited Morgan to 29 2/3 innings pitched in 2019, and the latter flexor problem ended his season after July 31.  The southpaw did spend some time on the IL this season due to shoulder soreness, yet while Morgan’s elbow didn’t cause him to miss any time this season, there were some red flags.

Morgan averaged only 91.6 mph on his fastball in 2020, a drop from his 92.6mph velocity in 2019 and a further decline after topping the 94mph threshold in both 2017 and 2018 (his first two seasons as a full-time reliever).  In the small sample size of 13 innings, Morgan posted a 5.54 ERA, 11.1 K/9, and 2.67 K/BB rate this season.  He also had career-worst totals in BB/9 (4.15) and HR/9 (2.08), though ERA predictors were generally satisfied with his work — Morgan had a 4.04 xFIP and 3.81 SIERA, each significantly below his real-world ERA.

After being converted to relief pitching, Morgan delivered some solid results for the Phillies in 2017, 2018, and even in his injury-shortened 2019.  The lefty posted a 3.97 ERA, 9.6 K/9, and 2.84 K/BB rate over 133 2/3 innings over those three seasons.  If the Phils have confidence that this elbow surgery will help Morgan get back on track, they could have interest in retaining him given the club’s dire need for bullpen help.

Morgan earned $1.575MM this season and is line for only a modest raise in his third and final year of arbitration eligibility.  He wouldn’t represent a big investment for Philadelphia, but by the time the non-tender deadline rolls around in early December, the team might not yet know if Morgan’s recovery will be on the shorter end or longer end of that 6-to-8 month timeframe.  As such, Morgan might not be tendered a contract, though the Phils (or another team) could then explore signing him to a less-expensive deal.

Joe Biagini Elects Free Agency

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Right-hander Joe Biagini has rejected an outright assignment from the Astros in favor of free agency, the team announced to reporters (Twitter link via The Athletic’s Jake Kaplan). He was designated for assignment late last month.

The move was all but a foregone conclusion after Biagini cleared waivers. Players with three-plus years of service time have the right to become free agents at the end of a season in which they’ve been outrighted off the 40-man roster, and there’s no reason for Biagini not to explore his opportunities under that setting. Virtually every three-plus service player who is outrighted goes this route unless they have a guaranteed contract they’d forfeit by taking free agency. That wasn’t the case with Biagini, who played out the 2020 season on a one-year deal after avoiding arbitration last winter.

Biagini, 30, was a solid reliever for much of his time with the Blue Jays but immediately struggled upon being traded to Houston alongside Aaron Sanchez in the 2019 trade that brought Derek Fisher to Toronto. Biagini served up a dozen runs in just 14 2/3 innings down the stretch in 2019, and he was clobbered for 10 runs in just four outings this year. Overall, he logged a 10.74 ERA in 19 frames as an Astro.

That (clearly) wasn’t what the ’Stros had in mind when acquiring a righty who, through 50 innings in 2019 at the time of the trade, had pitched to a 3.78 ERA with a 50-to-17 K/BB ratio. Beyond those rudimentary numbers, Biagini boasted elite spin rate on his breaking ball as well as career-high swinging-strike and opponents’ chase rates at the time of the trade. There was plenty for the Astros to dream on, but their high hopes for Biagini simply never came together.

Biagini will hit what is expected to be a tepid free-agent market and likely need to prove himself to a new club on a minor league deal. He carries a 5.07 ERA in 328 big league innings, although that mark is weighed down a bit by an unsuccessful attempt by the Blue Jays to work him into the rotation (6.08 career ERA as a starter). Prior to being traded to Houston, Biagini carried a 4.04 ERA in just over 200 inning of relief. Biagini has four-plus years of service, so if he latches on with a new club and rights the ship, he’d be controllable through the 2022 season via arbitration.

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