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MLBTR Poll: More Likely Comeback, Athletics or Yankees?

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Both American League Division Series move to their fourth games Thursday. That leaves a pair of AL clubs staring down elimination. The West-winning Athletics dropped the first two against the division-rival Astros but survived the first of three potential elimination games yesterday. The Yankees, meanwhile, are on the ropes after dropping two straight in their set with the top-seeded Rays.

Each of the A’s and Yankees will need to win the final two games of their upcoming series to advance to the ALCS. Oakland will turn to Frankie Montas this afternoon, while the Astros will counter with staff ace Zack Greinke. New York is relying on Jordan Montgomery tonight, while Rays’ manager Kevin Cash will open with Ryan Thompson, presumably before turning to Ryan Yarbrough.

We’ll let the MLBTR readership weigh in. Can the Yankees’ high-powered offense overcome the Rays’ stellar pitching staff? Will the A’s star-studded bullpen right the ship and keep the Astros’ scorching lineup in check? Which team is more likely to dig themselves out of their current hole?

(poll link for app users)

 

Latest On Tommy La Stella

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OCTOBER 8: Apparently, the A’s dodged a bullet. La Stella’s back in the lineup, hitting second and playing second base, for today’s must-win Game 4.

OCTOBER 7: The Athletics staved off elimination in this afternoon’s ALDS Game 3 against the division-rival Astros. That didn’t come without a potentially big loss though, as second baseman Tommy La Stella exited the game in the eighth inning (via Martín Gallegos of MLB.com). The left-handed hitter took a Brooks Raley fastball off his right arm and was immediately replaced by utilityman Nate Orf (relays Susan Slusser of the San Francisco Chronicle). La Stella suffered a right elbow contusion, Melvin told reporters (Slusser link). Fortunately, x-rays came back negative, Slusser adds.

Oakland has alternatives at the keystone if need be, but none are likely to match La Stella’s level of production. Between the Angels and A’s, the 31-year-old combined for a very strong .281/.370/.449 line with five home runs this season. Orf, a 30-year-old with just 32 career MLB plate appearances, would probably be miscast as an everyday player. Manager Bob Melvin could turn to the left-handed hitting Tony Kemp or right-handed Chad Pinder, both of whom are also on Oakland’s ALDS roster. Pinder has started each of the last two games at third base, though, so turning to him would push Jake Lamb into everyday duty at the hot corner.

Pitching Notes: Montas, Astros, Morejon, Rays

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The latest on a few teams’ Division Series pitching plans:

  • The Athletics are turning the ball over to right-hander Frankie Montas for this afternoon’s must-win Game 4 against the Astros, per various reporters (including Shayna Rubin of the San Jose Mercury News). The 27-year-old was the best pitcher on staff in 2019 before an 80-game suspension following a positive PED test derailed his season. Montas hasn’t performed anywhere close to last year’s level in 2020, although he continues to pump high-90’s heat and strike batters out at a high rate.
  • The Astros haven’t yet named their opposing starter for Game 4. Manager Dusty Baker didn’t rule out turning the ball over to veteran Zack Greinke, who has been dealing with some arm soreness, notes Jason Beck of MLB.com. The 36-year-old ran in the outfield before yesterday’s game but did not throw, reported Chandler Rome of the Houston Chronicle (via Twitter). If Greinke doesn’t go, fellow righty Cristian Javier would be the logical choice to get the ball. [UPDATE: Greinke will get the ball for this afternoon’s potential clincher, via Jake Kaplan of the Athletic and others].
  • The Padres finalized their rotation plans for what they hope will be the next two games against the Dodgers. Young southpaw Adrián Morejón will go in tonight’s Game 3, per Jon Heyman of MLB Network (Twitter link), with righty Chris Paddack scheduled for a potential Game 4. Of course, there’ll only be a fourth game if San Diego can stave off elimination tonight with L.A. leading the best-of-five set two games to none.
  • The Rays, meanwhile, are planning to go to an opener to kick off tonight’s Game 4 against the Yankees. Reliever Ryan Thompson will get the ball to start (via Marc Topkin of the Tampa Bay Times). Presumably, the sidearmer will be backed up by lefty Ryan Yarbrough, who has shown he’s comfortable providing bulk innings behind openers over the past two years.

Qualifying Offer Value Set At $18.9 Million

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This offseason, Major League Baseball’s qualifying offer will be set at $18.9MM, reports Evan Drellich of the Athletic (via Twitter). The value, which is determined by taking the average of the game’s 125 highest-paid players, represents a $1.1MM raise over last offseason’s $17.8MM figure.

Any team wishing to receive draft compensation for the loss of a free agent will first have to make that free agent a one-year offer worth that $18.9MM value. Qualifying offer recipients will have 10 days to decide whether to accept or reject the offer and are free to talk with other clubs during that window as they get an early sense of their market value. If a player accepts, he’ll have signed at that rate for the 2021 season. Like other free-agent signings, that player would be ineligible to be traded, without his consent, prior to June 15 of the following season.

Only players who spent the entire 2020 season with the same organization are eligible to receive a qualifying offer; midseason trade acquisitions and signings cannot receive one. Additionally, the 2017-21 collective bargaining agreement also added the stipulation that players can only receive one qualifying offer in their career. Twins DH Nelson Cruz, for instance, will hit the open market unencumbered after receiving a qualifying offer from the Orioles in 2014. That also rules out Braves outfielder Marcell Ozuna, who was tagged last year by the Cardinals, and Dodgers third baseman Justin Turner, who received one in 2016.

In past offseasons, teams deployed the qualifying offer rather liberally. Doing so ensured the club would receive draft compensation if a player departed, and the player accepting the QO would only lock them in on a short term, albeit at a relatively lofty rate. With the pandemic-driven revenue losses that plagued MLB in 2020, it’s likely that teams will be more reluctant to put those large single-year salaries on the table for borderline players.

Turning to the upcoming free agent class, a few players stand out as obvious QO candidates despite the broad financial uncertainty. Phillies catcher J.T. Realmuto, Reds starter Trevor Bauer, Astros outfielder George Springer and Yankees second baseman DJ LeMahieu are all established players coming off strong to elite seasons. All four appear to be locks to receive and reject the QO.

More interesting are the potential borderline cases. As Susan Slusser of the San Francisco Chronicle points out (Twitter link), Athletics shortstop Marcus Semien would’ve been an obvious QO candidate in a typical offseason. Between the aforementioned revenue losses and Semien’s disappointing abbreviated season, that no longer appears to be likely. Starting pitchers Kevin Gausman and Marcus Stroman seem unlikely to receive offers from the Giants and Mets, respectively, but they’re plausible candidates. So too are Angels shortstop Andrelton Simmons and Phillies infielder Didi Gregorius, among others.

As a reminder, the parameters for teams signing or losing qualified free agents are as follows:

For teams that signs a qualified free agent…

  • A team that received revenue sharing the previous season will forfeit its third-highest selection upon. Signing a second qualified would result in the loss of that team’s fourth-highest selection. Signing a third would result in the loss of its fifth-highest selection.
  • A team that did not receive revenue sharing and also did not pay any luxury tax penalties would lose its second-highest selection as well as $500K of the league’s allotted international bonus pool. Signing additional qualified free agents would result in forfeiting the third-highest selection and another $500K of international allotments.
  • A team that paid luxury tax penalties must forfeit both its second- and fifth-highest selections in the 2019 draft and forfeit $1MM of international funds. Signing a second would result in the loss of that team’s third- and sixth-highest picks, plus another $1MM in international funds.

For teams who lose qualified free agents…

  • A draft pick after Competitive Balance Round B will be awarded if the team losing the free agent did not receive revenue sharing or if the free agent in question signed a contract worth less than $50MM in guaranteed money.
  • A draft pick after Round 1 will be awarded if the team losing the free agent received revenue sharing and the free agent in question signed for more than $50MM.
  • A draft pick after Round 4 will be awarded if the team losing the free agent paid luxury tax penalties in the preceding season.

KBO’s Kiwoom Heroes To Post Ha-Seong Kim This Offseason

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The Kiwoom Heroes of the Korea Baseball Organization will post star shortstop Ha-Seong Kim for Major League clubs this winter, MLBTR has learned. He’d previously voiced a desire to be posted, and the team plans to honor those wishes this winter. All 30 Major League clubs will have the opportunity to bid on the infielder, who’ll turn just 25 years old next week.

Kim’s youth sets him apart from most other players who have made the jump from the KBO (or Japan’s NPB) to the Major Leagues. Current rules in the KBO stipulate that a player cannot be posted until he has accrued seven years of service time. Unrestricted free agency is granted after nine years. Kim’s first full season in the KBO came at just 18 years of age, however, which has him on pace to become available to MLB clubs a few years sooner than most of his peers. He’ll still meet the minimum age (25) and experience (at least six years) requirements set by Major League Baseball in order to be considered a professional rather than an amateur, meaning he can sign a Major League deal of any length and any amount.

While Kim didn’t hit much in that aforementioned rookie season — not surprising given his age — he’s been an average or better bat each year since, by measure of wRC+. However, it’s been the past two years in which Kim has taken his game to a new level. Baseball America’s Kyle Glaser wrote back in early May that Kim would be a Top 100 prospect if he signed at that point, and that was before Kim built on his 2019 breakout with a .304/.396/.522 slash in his first 551 plate appearances in 2020.

Dating back to Opening Day 2019, Kim is a .306/.392/.505 hitter — good for a 141 wRC+. In 2020, Kim has slugged a career-high 27 homers, walked more often than he’s struck out (67 to 58) and gone a perfect 21-for-21 in stolen bases. Over the past two seasons, he’s swiped 64 bags in 68 tries. Kim has also won multiple Gold Glove Awards for his work at shortstop in Korea and has some experience at third base. Given his age and 2019-20 breakout, he should draw interest from a wide range of Major League teams.

For those who need a refresher or who are unfamiliar with the posting process, the latest set of rules agreed upon between MLB and the KBO stipulate that all 30 clubs will be able to negotiate with Kim. The posting fee paid to the Heroes will be tied directly to the size of the contract signed by Kim. It is a separate sum that is paid out to the Heroes as opposed to an amount that is subtracted from Kim’s eventual contract. A signing team would pay 20 percent of the contract’s first $25MM to the Heroes, plus 17.5 percent of the next $25MM and an additional 15 percent on any dollars guaranteed beyond $50MM.

With regard to contractual options and incentives, those clauses are also subject to subsequent fees. A Major League team would only be immediately responsible for posting/release fees on the guaranteed portion of the contract. But if Kim’s new team in the Majors exercised a club option for the 2025 or 2026 season, for instance, that team would owe a supplemental fee to the Heroes once that option is picked up.

Kim’s forthcoming addition to the 2020-21 class of free agent shortstops adds some youth to a group that is headlined by Didi Gregorius, Marcus Semien, Andrelton Simmons and Jonathan Villar. Of that bunch, only Gregorius enjoyed a quality year by his standards, while each of the other three will be hoping for rebounds (to varying extents).

Junior Guerra Changes Representation

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Diamondbacks reliever Junior Guerra is changing representation, per Robert Murray (Twitter link). He’ll now be represented by MVP Sports Group.

Guerra, 35, signed a one-year contract with Arizona last offseason worth a guaranteed $2.65MM. That deal comes with a $3.5MM club option for 2021. It’ll be an interesting decision for GM Mike Hazen and the rest of the D-Backs front office. The veteran righty worked to a strong 3.04 ERA in 23.2 innings this season, but that was driven by an unsustainably low opponents’ BABIP (.250) and HR/FB rate (7.1%). Guerra’s 21:15 strikeout-to-walk ratio hints at potential regression. If Arizona decides to exercise the option, they’ll control him through 2022 via arbitration.

The change has been updated in our Agency Database.  If you see any notable errors or omissions within the database, please let us know via e-mail: mlbtrdatabase@gmail.com.

Mariners, Bullpen Coach Brian DeLunas To Part Ways

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Mariners bullpen coach Brian DeLunas will not return next season, reports Corey Brock of the Athletic (Twitter link). As Brock notes, DeLunas originally joined the organization in a front office capacity entering the 2018 season. He became the club’s bullpen coach last November.

DeLunas’ only season in that position certainly wasn’t a banner year for the team’s relievers. The Mariners’ pen was worth a league-worst 1.5 wins below replacement, in FanGraphs’ estimation. Cumulatively, Seattle relievers pitched to a 5.92 ERA/5.81 FIP.

Of course, that’s hardly all the fault of DeLunas. The M’s bullpen personnel was lackluster, especially after Austin Adams and Dan Altavilla were traded to the Padres mid-season. The end of games is a clear area of focus moving forward, as GM Jerry Dipoto acknowledged the club will need to bring in “three or four” outside arms this winter.

International Signings: 10/7/20

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A couple of notable international signings:

  • The Pirates announced they have signed 19-year-old pitcher Po-Yu Chen. The Taiwanese righty will receive a $1.25MM signing bonus, reports Jason Mackey of the Pittsburgh Post-Gazette (Twitter link). Chen has evidently been on the organization’s radar for quite some time, with GM Ben Cherington noting the club has scouted him extensively over the past three years (via Rob Biertempfel of the Athletic). Notably, the Bucs’ only trade at this summer’s trade deadline netted them additional international pool space, as outfielder Jarrod Dyson was dealt to the White Sox for $243,300 in bonus availability.
  • The Rangers signed 17-year-old outfielder Alejandro Osuna out of Mexico, per Baseball America’s Ben Badler (via Twitter). As Badler notes, Osuna is the brother of Astros’ reliever Roberto Osuna. Alejandro Osuna also has a twin brother, Pedro Osuna, who also plays outfield, but bats and throws right-handed, unlike Alejandro, who bats and throws lefty.

Padres Remove Mike Clevinger From NLDS Roster

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The Padres removed right-hander Mike Clevinger from their NL Division Series roster against the Dodgers, the club announced. Ken Rosenthal of the Athletic (Twitter link) previously reported that such a move was a “virtual certainty.” By rule, removing a player mid-series also disqualifies them from the next round, so Clevinger is not eligible to participate in the NLCS. In a best case scenario, he’d return for the World Series if the Padres qualify.

Clevinger made it back from an elbow strain to start last night’s Game 1. Unfortunately, he was pulled just two pitches into the second inning after a marked dip in velocity. He’ll be reevaluated after “about a week” to allow the inflammation in his elbow to subside, Rosenthal adds. Fortunately, the belief is that Clevinger wouldn’t have done further damage had he continued pitching, hears Kevin Acee of the San Diego Union-Tribune (Twitter link). Rather, the bigger issue is whether he would’ve been capable of effectively working through the discomfort, per Acee. Given how obviously hampered Clevinger appeared to be last night, that would’ve been a real question.

Dan Altavilla is being added to the roster in a corresponding move. The 28-year-old reliever was active for San Diego’s Wild Card series against the Cardinals but scratched for the NLDS as San Diego looked for pitchers more experienced in working multiple innings.

Yankees Notes: Sanchez, Montgomery

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Currently tied at one win apiece, the Yankees and Rays will meet for Game 3 of the ALDS on Wednesday. New York won’t have Gary Sanchez behind the plate, as it benched him in favor of Kyle Higashioka after an 0-for-4, three-strikeout performance in Game 2, Marly Rivera of ESPN was among those to report. And it doesn’t appear Sanchez will have a stranglehold on the position going forward. Rather, manager Aaron Boone said the situation’s “day to day.”

This is the second time in the series the Yankees have sat Sanchez in favor of the typically light-hitting Higashioka, who has taken over as ace and Game 1 starter Gerrit Cole’s personal catcher. The Yankees are slated to pitch Masahiro Tanaka on Wednesday, but Higashioka will nonetheless don the tools of ignorance.

Considering the torrid pace he was on earlier in his career, which started in earnest in 2016, it’s a surprise Sanchez is no longer the Yankees’ easy choice at catcher. He was an excellent hitter through 2017, but his numbers declined significantly the next year before a bounce-back 2019 effort. However, the 27-year-old could only manage a .147/.253/.365 line with 10 home runs in 178 plate appearances during the 2020 regular season. Behind the plate, Sanchez threw out a league-average 26 percent of would-be base stealers but only finished in the 39th percentile in the framing category, per Statcast, and he led the AL in passed balls for the third time in four years.

Regardless of how this season ends for the World Series hopeful Yankees, it’ll be interesting to see whether they continue to place their faith in Sanchez, who has two years of arbitration eligibility left. The lone slam dunk improvement over Sanchez on the free-agent market will be the Phillies’ J.T. Realmuto, who should easily exceed $100MM on his contract. The Yankees do have the financial might to sign him if they’re dissatisfied with Sanchez, though.

For now, it remains to be seen whether Sanchez will start again in this series, but if he’s back in the lineup in Game 4, he’ll work with left-hander Jordan Montgomery. Boone said Montgomery, who had a rough time keeping runs off the board in the regular season, will take the ball in that contest, Lindsey Adler of The Athletic relays.

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