Within the last few years, the Rookie of the Year award has grown to have more meaning than it had in the past. Changes in the most recent collective bargaining agreement allow the award to bestow a full year of MLB service time on the top two finishers, even if they would have otherwise entered the offseason with less than that. Beyond that, any player who was a top-100 prospect on a pair of prominent preseason lists (Baseball America, MLB.com, ESPN) can net his club an extra pick by winning the award if he breaks camp with his club or was called up less than two weeks into the season. That’s raised the stakes on the two Rookie of the Year races, but who will ultimately come out on top?
Here’s a look at this year’s candidates in the National League, listen in alphabetical order by last name:
Drake Baldwin, C, Braves
The 24-year-old Baldwin is having a banner rookie season for Atlanta after an injury suffered by Sean Murphy during Spring Training opened up the Opening Day catcher job. Baldwin took the reins and never looked back. Through 96 games, he’s hitting .276/.347/.454 with a wRC+ of 126. He’s smacked 14 homers in 337 plate appearances, but more impressive is Baldwin’s plate discipline. The youngster is striking out just 16% of the time while walking at a solid 8.9% clip. That production has been enough to get the lion’s share of time behind the plate in spite of Murphy’s status as a former All-Star and Gold Glove award winner on a hefty contract. If there’s an issue with Baldwin’s profile, it’s that he’s a merely pedestrian defender behind the plate. Scouts expected him to be no more than average behind the plate, and so far the metrics have played that out as he has -1 Catching Runs this year according to Statcast. Baldwin and Murphy are now splitting the workload between catcher and DH, so Baldwin should see regular at-bats down the stretch. If he wins the award, he’ll net the Braves a PPI pick.
Isaac Collins, OF, Brewers
Collins celebrated his 28th birthday last month, making him by far the oldest player on this list. He’s been a game changer for an excellent Brewers club in left field, however, with a .270/.368/.421 (125 wRC+) slash line in 109 games. Collins has chipped in 28 extra-base hits and 15 steals and drawn walks at an excellent 12.3% clip. That penchant for drawing walks fuels an on-base percentage that sits just barely outside the top 20 among hitters with at least 300 plate appearances this year. Collins’ age and lack of a premium defensive position could hold him back in the eyes of some voters, but the switch-hitter does have one big thing going for him: he’s doing his best work now. Since the All-Star break, Collins has hit .288/.377/.475 with a wRC+ of 139.
Cade Horton, RHP, Cubs
The Cubs’ first rounder in the 2022 draft, Horton came up to fill out the rotation in a pinch back in May and has generally looked the part of a quality big league starter. He’s pitched to a 2.88 ERA and 3.71 FIP in 93 2/3 innings of work. That’s by far the best ERA among all rookie pitchers with at least 80 innings, and he’s been on the shortlist for the best pitcher in baseball since the All-Star break with a microscopic 0.49 ERA, a 2.61 FIP, and 24.8% strikeout rate. Horton’s season-long strikeout rate of just 20.1% isn’t all that impressive, and his relatively limited innings may hurt him with some voters. Even so, the 24-year-old should get plenty of attention with the way he’s pitched in the second half so far, and a big final month could further cement his case. Horton was a consensus top-100 prospect prior to the season but wasn’t called up early enough to net the Cubs a pick based on this year’s Rookie of the Year voting (though he could still garner them a pick with a top-3 Cy Young finish before reaching arbitration).
Chad Patrick, RHP, Brewers
Patrick might be overlooked by some voters who could be attracted to the strong second half numbers of Collins and Horton. Even so, he’s a legitimate contender for the award. Patrick’s 105 innings across 21 appearances (20 starts) lead NL rookies. He’s posted a 3.60 ERA with a nearly identical 3.68 FIP while striking out 23.9% of his opponents. Perhaps the biggest flaw in Patrick’s case is that the Brewers optioned him to Triple-A for just over a month. He didn’t pitch in the majors between July 5 and Aug. 19. He’s also worn down as the season has gone on, with a 5.09 ERA and 4.45 FIP in his last seven starts. Patrick will need to turn things around in September if he’s going to make a play for the award, but a strong start to his big league career in April and May could be enough to keep him in the conversation.
Other Options
That aforementioned quartet appear to be the likeliest candidates for the award, but they aren’t the only names to consider. Playing time will be a factor for Miami’s Jakob Marsee, but if the 24-year-old can keep hitting the way he has in 26 games since his Aug. 1 recall (.356/.422/.667, 195 wRC+), his otherworldly performance will get some attention anyway. Teammate Agustin Ramirez leads NL rookies in home runs (18) and plate appearances (463), but he’s posted awful defensive marks behind the plate and is sitting on a .287 on-base percentage (.228/.287/.424 overall). Brewers righty Jacob Misiorowski was the talk of the game after his first few starts, but he spent two weeks on the injured list after being clipped by a comebacker and has been tagged for 13 earned runs in his past 14 1/3 innings (four starts). He’s only at 43 2/3 innings on the season, too, which hurts his candidacy.
Hyeseong Kim has been an above-average hitter for the Dodgers and contributed defensive versatility, but he’s been on the injured list for a month and is unlikely to get enough playing time to merit consideration. Nationals righty Brad Lord is in the midst of a solid season as a swingman, but a 5.47 ERA in August does him no favors. Third basemen Caleb Durbin and Matt Shaw have both had decent enough years but are sure to be overshadowed by their teammates when it comes to balloting.
Who do MLBTR readers think will ultimately come out on top in the NL’s Rookie of the Year balloting? Have your say in the poll below:
No one stands out. Baldwin could be a star soon, but he’s not exactly taking the league by storm this year. Horton’s having a nice debut, but he hasn’t pitched that many innings and the peripherals are just OK.
Flip a coin I guess. Baldwin or Horton.
If the Braves we’re playing better, Baldwin would certainly stand out better. These awards are equal parts popularity contests.
Considering the odds of the AL ROY coming out of Sacramento, I don’t think that’s truly part of it for Baldwin.
Must be nice to be able to platoon a $15 million a year catcher. When there’s a cap, the teams who better manage with less resources, like Milwaukee, Seattle, Tampa will thrive.
Weak class in the NL this year. Whoever wins this year will probably cause people 5 years from now to go…who? Kind of like Jerome Walton, Marty Cordova, Angel Berroa, Chris Coghlan, and Kyle Lewis and many others. But they will always have the award to prove to people that they were good for one year at least.
Joe Charboneau, Bobby Crosby, Albie Pearson, Harry Byrd, Scott Williamson, Earl Williams, Bob Hamelin, Joe Black…. Etc.
Cordova is the rare player of that group that actually had a better second season than rookie season, but Ray Durham probably should have won it. I’ve never figured out how Williamson beat out Preston Wilson aside from the Reds being a playoff contender all season.
At the time, wins were still a big time stat and Williamson had double digit wins and saves which was a fairly rare occurrence. I am not agreeing with the decision, just explaining it.
It was a weird year in general because there were at least 5 rookies, maybe more, in the AL that would have won if they were in the NL. Just a strangely unbalanced year.
Athletic catchers who can hit last a long time.
“He’s only at 43 2/3 innings on the season, too, which hurts his candidacy.” It didn’t seem to hurt his candidacy for being an All Star though.
mad?
Not at all. Just pointing out something that didn’t make sense to me.
Well, I’m on the proverbial fence regarding Miz’s candidacy, but he was arguably Milwaukee’s best player at the ASB.
But ASG’s are not and have never been about picking the “best” players. Otherwise the teams would not change much from year to year. They are about rewarding players who had the best first half of the season. There were plenty of quality starters that pitched the whole year that were as good or better than the guy with 5 starts. Cristopher Sanchez and others deserved that spot far more.
Subpar defensive catchers do more harm than good for a team that won’t show up in a stat sheet…..yes even if they a decent OPS. Collins is part of that Milw magic.
He should be better defensively. He’s also had to deal with inconsistent playing time and a 4 of the 5 members of the rotation on the IL, meaning a revolving door rotation (Fedde, Quantrill, Wentz lately…). That being said, he’s better than expected in pop times and frame rates. Murph should be given some credit.
Collins is 3-30 since returning from paternity list, fwiw.
This race is 1000x less exciting than the AL race
Well if Misorwski can be an all star then Nolan McLean can be ROY.
5 more starts like his first three – hell yeah! LFGM!
(No, he shouldn’t be ROY – and JM shouldn’t have been an AllStar. Baseball fans need attention spans longer than a TikTok reel.)
Can’t believe the article didn’t have Caleb Durbin in it.
I consider it a win that a Brewer even makes the conversation!
Don’t they have one in the top 3 every year?
He’s at the bottom along with Matt Shaw…
Shaw has been more valuable than Durbin, and he’s also played in 7 fewer games with 40+ fewer at bats
Nolan McLean already has a higher bWAR (1.1) than Cade Horton (1.0) in 70 fewer innings
He only has 3 starts, so not many people considering him just like they are not considering Marsee yet.
Roman Anthony gets my vote for both AL and NL ROY. Chuck Norris is voting the same way.
Except for a guy named Nick Kurtz has already won it.
I love Roman but you’re right, and it shouldn’t even be close
Neither of the pitchers Deeds listed are in the same level as Baldwin and Collins. While Baldwin and Collins are pretty similar in offensive stats (123 OPS+ vs 122, .276 BA vs .270), I will go with Baldwin because he has shown better power. Some would argue that Collins has shown plus defense in LF so that could be a deciding factor for them, but the power is more important IMHO.
Baldwin over Horton is just ridiculous. Pitchers who have accomplished what Horton has since the break are very few and far between. Baldwin is a nice player but a dime a dozen. Much harder to find good pitching.
It’s drastically harder to find an elite catcher then a pitcher.
He plays every 5th day. For a pitcher to win ROY he has to be head and shoulders better than everyone else. Thats exactly why Harris won it over Strider a couple years ago deal Strider doing things no rookie pitcher has ever done before.
I still don’t know why they don’t just have two separate awards, one for pitchers and one for hitters in each league. You really cannot compare the two against each other. It is complete apples and oranges. Sure, some years you will have some lesser quality guys win one or more of the four awards, but who cares?
I’d agree to that. But until they make that change, unless the pitcher is light years ahead, he’s always gonna get dinged for only playing every 5th day. Just how it works. They should do pitching and position player ROY. Doesn’t the NFL do that with offense and defense (admittedly not as big of an NFL fan as I once was)
But can you ding relievers in the same way? Devin Williams, Huston Street, Scott Williamson, Gregg Olson and maybe more I am forgetting pitched more often than every 5th day. It’s tough enough to compare relievers to starters, let alone position players.
Explain Skenes over Merrill last year then, Fowler… was he head and shoulders better than the everyday Gold Glove CFer?!?
I agree with hiflew; there should be a separate RotY Pitcher and Player Award.
I’ll explain it. Skenes had that award won before the season even started. Hell, he had it won the moment he was drafted, the only question was what year it would be when the Pirates brought him up.
3.71 FiP (2.88 ERA) suggests Horton has been lucky with good defense (Nico/Swanson/PCA) behind him. Also, how many teams has he played twice? Teams typically need to see pitchers more than once and usually have the upper hand the first start b/c of a lack of scouting report.
You don’t see a lot of rookie C getting almost 50% C splits and DH time b/c of their consistent bat hitting in the clean-up spot most days.
I feel like Ramirez could belt out 30 Homers by season’s end. He should at least be in the conversation which in this article he basically isn’t
If Horton keeps pitching like he has been, and he doesn’t have any major clunkers (or injuries), I think he wins it. He has good stuff, but his development as a pitcher has been fun to watch.
The article mentions his “limited innings” as a drawback. He’s already over the highest number of innings he’s ever pitched, and because of the surgery in college, they’ve had to limit his innings if they want him for a potential playoff run.
This is a weak class compared to last year.
Top 4 in terms of WAR:
4.Caleb Durbin (2.3)
3.Isaac Collins (2.4)
2.Drake Baldwin (2.5)
1…wait for it…that would be Matt Shaw, who you have all the way at the end of the conversation, with 2.6.
The fact that Caleb Burbin isn’t on this list and Chad Patrick is is criminal
There should not be a comma before “too.”