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AL East Notes: Kim, Rays, Orioles, Red Sox, Dalbec

By Mark Polishuk | May 26, 2025 at 11:26pm CDT

Ha-Seong Kim began a rehab assignment with Triple-A Durham today, marking both his first official on-field appearance with the Rays organization and the first minor league game of his four-plus years in North American baseball, as Kim never saw any time in the minors when he was a member of the Padres from 2021-24.  Kim underwent shoulder surgery last October, which chilled his free agent market and allowed Tampa to swoop in for a two-year, $29MM guarantee that allows the infielder to opt out after the 2025 campaign.

Marc Topkin of the Tampa Bay Times writes that Kim and four other injured Rays players (Jonny DeLuca, Jake Mangum, Travis Jankowski, Kevin Kelly) are all scheduled to be activated from the IL over the next few weeks, which might make for a bit of a roster crunch as the Rays figure out how to make room for everyone.  Some holes will be created when some current players are optioned to the minors, though Topkin figures the Rays will at least check out the trade market to see if any of their surplus players could potentially draw interest from other teams.

More from around the AL East…

  • The Orioles are also missing several notable players on the IL, and interim manager Tony Mansolino provided reporters (including the Baltimore Sun’s Matt Weyrich) with the news that Jordan Westburg and Colton Cowser both started rehab assignments today with Triple-A Norfolk.  Westburg hasn’t played since April 26 due to a left hamstring strain, and then a setback two weeks ago that arose just as Westburg was about to start a previous rehab assignment.  Cowser has already logged three rehab games with high-A Aberdeen, as the outfielder makes his way back from a fractured thumb that occurred in Baltimore’s fourth game of the season.  Given an initial recovery timeline of 6-8 weeks, Cowser has already been sidelined beyond the high end of that timeline, but the shift to Triple-A indicates that his return to the Orioles’ lineup might not be too far away.  Gary Sanchez (wrist inflammation) and Ramon Laureano (sprained ankle) are further away, but Sanchez took batting practice today and Laureano has progressed to hitting in the batting cage.
  • Though the Red Sox have been in need of first base help since Triston Casas was lost for the season, the club wasn’t interested in a reunion with former prospect Bobby Dalbec, according to MassLive.com’s Sean McAdam.  When the White Sox designated Dalbec for assignment at the start of May, Chicago contacted the BoSox as part of their efforts to gauge any trade interest in the infielder, but Boston declined to make a move.  Dalbec instead elected free agency after clearing waivers and being outrighted off Chicago’s 40-man roster, and signed a minor league deal with the Brewers.  Formerly a top-100 prospect during his days in the Red Sox farm system, Dalbec showed some flashes of that potential at the MLB level with Boston in 2020-21, but his production tailed off afterwards.
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Baltimore Orioles Boston Red Sox Chicago White Sox Notes Tampa Bay Rays Bobby Dalbec Colton Cowser Gary Sanchez Ha-Seong Kim Jake Mangum Jonny DeLuca Jordan Westburg Kevin Kelly Ramon Laureano Travis Jankowski

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Blue Jays Notes: Garcia, Swanson, Burr, Sandlin, Gimenez, Manoah

By Mark Polishuk | May 26, 2025 at 10:29pm CDT

Yimi Garcia was placed on the Blue Jays’ 15-day injured list on Saturday, as the reliever is dealing with a right shoulder impingement.  Manager John Schneider provided some updates on several injured players to reporters (including Sportsnet’s Arden Zwelling) today, including the news that Garcia received a cortisone shot in his ailing shoulder and will therefore be shut down from throwing for a few days while the shot takes effect.  A more definitive recovery timeline won’t be in place until Garcia starts throwing, Schneider said.

Garcia hasn’t allowed an earned run in 19 of his 21 appearances in 2025, as all of his damage allowed (seven ER) came over back-to-back disastrous outings against the Guardians and Angels on May 3 and 6, respectively.  He has a 3.15 ERA and an excellent 28.9% strikeout rate over 20 total innings this season, but his 12% walk rate is far beyond his career norms, and his 23.8% chase rate is well below the league average.

Even with those minor red flags, Garcia was Toronto’s top set-up option behind closer Jeff Hoffman, so losing Garcia for at least 15 days is another tough break for a Blue Jays bullpen that has been missing some key arms for all or most of the 2025 campaign.  Erik Swanson has yet to pitch at all this year, due to median nerve entrapment in his right arm that surfaced during Spring Training and then some forearm soreness that interrupted the start of his minor league rehab assignment.

Fortunately, Swanson now looks ready to go, as Schneider said the reliever will get a rehab outing with Triple-A Buffalo on Tuesday.  Swanson was another pitcher ticketed for a set-up role this season, and he excelled in the position in 2023 and in the second half of the 2024 season, albeit only after an injury-marred first half.

The news isn’t as good for right-hander Ryan Burr, who went in for a check-up with team doctors following his Triple-A rehab appearance on Sunday.  Burr is another pitcher still waiting for his 2025 debut since he was dealing with shoulder inflammation in the spring, and Burr’s shoulder was still feeling some discomfort in the wake of Sunday’s outing.  More will be known soon if Burr’s soreness was anything serious, or if his rehab may be put on hold.

Nick Sandlin got his Blue Jays tenure off to a nice start when he posted a 2.25 ERA in his first eight innings with the team, before a right lat strain sent him to the 15-day IL back on April 20.  With now over a month spent on the sidelines, Sandlin is on the road to recovery, as he threw a bullpen session today at the Jays’ training complex in Florida.

Turning to position players, Andres Gimenez is also down in Florida, and Schneider said Gimenez is aiming to be part of a rehab game on Wednesday.  Acquired along with Sandlin in a big offseason trade with the Guardians, Gimenez drastically cooled off after a hot start, and was hitting only .195/.273/.305 over 143 plate appearances before a right quad strain sent him to the 10-day IL earlier this month.  Gimenez had been the Jays’ starting second baseman, and Ernie Clement has since moved to the keystone in Gimenez’s absence, bringing Addison Barger into the picture as the regular third baseman.

Alek Manoah also provided reporters with an update on his status during the Blue Jays’ recent visit to Tampa to play the Rays, as Manoah has been rehabbing from his Tommy John surgery at the Jays’ Dunedin complex.  Speaking with MLB.com’s Keegan Matheson and other media, Manoah is aiming to be back with the Jays in August, which would mark roughly a 14-month absence since he underwent his TJ procedure in June 2024.

As with any recovery from a UCL surgery, of course, this timeline is still pretty fluid.  Manoah is still in the bullpen session phase of his throwing progression (with twice-weekly bullpens of more than 40 pitches), so he has a ways to go before turning to his own minor league rehab work and fully building his arm up for a starter’s workload.

Once the burgeoning ace of Toronto’s rotation, Manoah’s career has been going sideways for the better part of three years.  Manoah followed up his excellent 2022 season with a miserable 2023 campaign that saw him lose his command of the strike zone and his spot on the Jays’ big league roster entirely.  He seemed to be somewhat back on track when he posted a 3.70 ERA over five starts and 24 1/3 innings in 2024 before the Tommy John procedure put Manoah on the IL.

It is anyone’s guess as to how Manoah may look once he makes his return to the active roster, yet even the 2024 version would be welcomed by a Jays team in need of rotation depth.  Kevin Gausman, Jose Berrios, and Chris Bassitt remain the top three anchors of the pitching staff, but Bowden Francis has struggled, and Max Scherzer’s own injury problems have led to a revolving door of mostly ineffective options in the fifth starter’s role.

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Notes Toronto Blue Jays Alek Manoah Andres Gimenez Erik Swanson Nick Sandlin Ryan Burr Yimi Garcia

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MLBTR Chat Transcript

By Mark Polishuk | May 26, 2025 at 9:00pm CDT

Click here to read the transcript of tonight’s live baseball chat

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MLBTR Chats

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Marlins To Place Derek Hill On 10-Day IL, Promote Victor Mesa Jr.

By Mark Polishuk | May 26, 2025 at 5:30pm CDT

The Marlins are calling up outfielder Victor Mesa Jr., according to reporter Francys Romero.  Mesa is already on the 40-man roster, and he’ll take the 26-man roster spot of outfielder Derek Hill, as MLB.com’s Christina De Nicola reports that Hill is being placed on the 10-day injured list due to a left wrist sprain.

This is the second time Hill has hit the IL with a wrist-related injury this season, as another sprain in that same left wrist cost him about four weeks of action from mid-April to mid-May.  While these injuries have certainly had some impact on Hill’s production, his .233/.300/.370 slash line over 82 plate appearances is pretty close to his career numbers over 558 PA across parts of the last six Major League seasons.

Known more for his speed and ability to play all three outfield positions, Hill has primarily played center field in Miami since the Marlins claimed him off waivers from the Giants last August.  With Hill and Dane Myers now both on the IL, the Fish are thin on center fielders, so Mesa could be in line for a good chunk of playing time as he nears his MLB debut.

The 23-year-old Mesa was a highly-regarded international signing back in 2018, as he landed a $1MM bonus while older brother Victor Victor Mesa received an even heftier $5.25MM bonus.  While the elder Mesa brother was considered an elite prospect at the time, Victor Victor hasn’t played in organized baseball since 2023, and the younger (and somewhat less-regarded) Victor Jr. has slowly climbed up the ladder of the Marlins’ farm system.

MLB Pipeline ranks Mesa Jr. 26th on their list of Miami’s top 30 prospects, and Baseball America has him in the final spot in its top-30 Marlins ranking.  Mesa is considered to be a solid defensive outfielder capable of playing all three positions, including right field thanks to his above-average throwing arm.  Mesa has a career .261/.323/.443 slash line in 379 PA at the Triple-A level, with 14 home runs and 80 strikeouts.  Prone to chasing pitches, Mesa has considerably reduced his strikeout rate this season, though he has appeared in just 16 total minor league games in 2025 due to an injury of his own.

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Miami Marlins Transactions Derek Hill Victor Mesa Jr.

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Pirates Promote Braxton Ashcraft

By Mark Polishuk | May 26, 2025 at 5:07pm CDT

The Pirates have called right-handed pitching prospect Braxton Ashcraft up to the majors and sent right-hander Isaac Mattson to Triple-A, manager Don Kelly told reporters (including MLB.com’s Alex Stumpf).  No further transaction was required since Ashcraft has been on the Bucs’ 40-man roster since November 2023.  Noah Hiles of the Pittsburgh Post-Gazette reported yesterday that Ashcraft would be traveling with the Pirates on their current road trip to Arizona, though it wasn’t clear if Ashcraft would be officially activated or if he would just be part of the team’s taxi squad.

As it turns out, Ashcraft will indeed get his first taste of Major League action, and he’ll also be operating in a new role.  Ashcraft has started 69 of his 71 career games in the minors, but Kelly said that Ashcraft will for now work as a long reliever or bulk pitcher on Pittsburgh’s staff.  This would seem to indicate that Mike Burrows will remain as the Pirates’ fifth starter behind the stable top four of Paul Skenes, Mitch Keller, Andrew Heaney, and Bailey Falter.  Burrows was only just called up within the last week to replace Carmen Mlodzinski, who struggled over nine starts.

Pittsburgh fans may continue to raise eyebrows over the fact that Bubba Chandler has yet to be recalled for his MLB debut, as the Bucs have thus far turned to Burrows (whose lone career big league game came in 2024), plus two other pitchers (Tom Harrington and now Ashcraft) who hadn’t yet appeared in the Show.  While Chandler is one of the sport’s best overall prospects, the pitching-rich Pirates seem more willing for now to give looks to some of their other well-regarded young arms.

Ashcraft has been waiting a while for the call to the majors, as he was a second-round pick for the Pirates back in the 2018 draft.  Multiple injuries (including a Tommy John surgery in 2021) slowed his progress, and Ashcraft has logged only 283 1/3 innings over parts of six pro seasons.  The Bucs still felt confident enough in his potential to add Ashcraft to their 40-man roster in advance of the 2023 Rule 5 Draft, and he went on to post good numbers across two levels in 2024, even with forearm inflammation again limiting his time on the mound.

Over 48 1/3 innings at Triple-A this season, Ashcraft has a 5.03 ERA, though a .361 BABIP has contributed to that inflated number.  Ashcraft’s 51.1% grounder rate, 25.6% strikeout rate, and 8.7% walk rate paint a better picture of his performance, even if his control has dipped a bit in comparison to his last couple of post-surgery seasons.

Baseball America ranks the righty as the fourth-best minor leaguer in the Pirates’ farm system, while MLB Pipeline has him seventh on their Bucs top 30 list.  Both scouting reports wonder if Ashcraft may be best suited to relief pitching, given both his injury history his lack of a strong or consistent changeup.  Ashcraft has a plus fastball in the 95-98mph range, and his slider and curveball are also intriguing enough to make the right-hander a potential three-pitch threat.

Since Pittsburgh’s rotation is fairly full at the moment and Chandler’s debut is looming, Ashcraft’s bullpen role will allow him to get his foot in the door at the MLB level, and perhaps also hint at his eventual future.  Obviously the Pirates will still give Ashcraft some looks as a starter down the road before committing one way or the other to his future deployment, and for now, Ashcraft will get the opportunity to help out the Pirates’ inconsistent pen.

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Arizona Diamondbacks Pittsburgh Pirates Transactions Braxton Ashcraft Isaac Mattson

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Mariners Outright Austin Shenton, Jesse Hahn

By Darragh McDonald | May 26, 2025 at 3:16pm CDT

The Mariners announced that both infielder/outfielder Austin Shenton and right-hander Jesse Hahn have cleared waivers and been sent outright to Triple-A Tacoma. Both players were designated for assignment in separate transactions last week.

Shenton, 27, was the player more likely to be claimed. He is relatively young, can still be optioned for this year and one more, and has decent numbers on the farm. From 2021 to 2024, he stepped to the plate 1,540 times for various minor league clubs. His 27.3% strikeout rate in that time was high but he also drew walks at a strong 14.1% clip and hit 71 home runs. That led to a combined .281/.390/.529 line and 138 wRC+. He also had a decent .214/.340/.405 line in his first 50 big league plate appearances, which came with the Rays last year.

He was flipped to the Mariners going into 2025 and his offense has fallen off this year. Before getting designated for assignment, he posted a .207/.284/.413 line in 169 Triple-A plate appearances. Part of that is a .242 batting average on balls in play but his 29% strikeout rate is high even for him, while his walk rate is down to an uncharacteristically low 8.3%.

Shenton isn’t considered an especially strong defender and isn’t a burner on the basepaths, so he needs to hit to provide value. He has done that through large portions of his minor league career but his dip this year has apparently been enough that no club is willing to give him a 40-man roster spot at the moment. Since this is his first career outright and he has less than three years of big league service time, he doesn’t have the right to elect free agency, so he’ll provide the M’s with some non-roster depth.

As for Hahn, he’s a 35-year-old hurler who hasn’t been a mainstay in the big leagues since 2020. He missed 2022 and 2023 due to a shoulder injury and then was stuck in the minors in 2024. This year, the Mariners have twice selected his contract to serve as an emergency arm. The first time, he made two appearances before being designated for assignment and passed through waivers. He returned on a fresh minor league deal and was selected back to the roster last week, this time getting DFA’d after just one appearance.

Now that he has been passed through waivers again, he has the right to reject this outright assignment and elect free agency, though he could accept it or return to the M’s on a new deal like he did last time.

Photo courtesy of Mark J. Rebilas, Imagn Images

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Seattle Mariners Transactions Austin Shenton Jesse Hahn

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Rangers Not Considering Kumar Rocker For Closer Role

By Nick Deeds | May 26, 2025 at 2:20pm CDT

May 26: Rangers president of baseball operations Chris Young today denied that Rocker is being considered for a closer role, per Evan Grant of The Dallas Morning News. Young said it’s possible Rocker ends up pitching in relief due to various circumstances, though it’s not something the club is targeting. “We see him as an MLB starter in the short- and long-term,” Young said. “Is there a way we need him in some capacity in the bullpen? Perhaps, but that is neither the focus nor the plan. We’ve not talked about it.”

May 25: Rangers brass are contemplating trying hard-throwing youngster Kumar Rocker in the closer role when he returns from the injured list, according to a report from Bob Nightengale of USA Today. Rocker is currently rehabbing from a right shoulder impingement that’s kept him sidelined over the past month, but is already on a rehab assignment and expected to be ready to return in the near future.

Moving a consensus top-50 prospect in the sport to the bullpen despite him having started all eight games of his major league career to this point would be something of a bold move, but it’s also an understandable one to consider for a team badly in need of a spark. The Rangers currently sport a 26-28 record that leaves them on the outside looking in of the AL playoff picture. Much of those struggles have been down to an anemic offense that has struggled to generate runs despite having big name players like Wyatt Langford, Marcus Semien, Corey Seager, and Joc Pederson up and down the lineup.

Perhaps the team that entered play today tied for the third-fewest runs scored in the majors could put themselves in a better position to succeed if their pitching was top-notch; after all, the Rangers are tied with the Royals in terms of runs scored, and Kansas City is currently clinging to the final AL Wild Card spot with a 29-25 record thanks in large part to a team ERA of 3.07, second in baseball behind only the Mets. The Rangers are no slouches when it comes to pitching, themselves, as their team ERA of 3.38 is good for sixth in the majors. Notably, however, much of that prowess has come from a starting rotation that has featured standout performances from veterans Nathan Eovaldi, Jacob deGrom, and Tyler Mahle. Rocker has not been part of that success, as even when healthy he’s pitched to a lackluster 8.10 ERA in five starts this year despite solid peripherals.

The bullpen, on the other hand, is a place where Rocker may be able to make an impact. The Rangers have dealt with a middling bullpen for years, and despite overhauling the unit this offseason that remains the case as they’ve pitched to a 4.20 ERA that’s good for just 19th in the majors. Adding an electric arm like that of Rocker to the mix could help the Rangers hold onto leads late in games, especially with veteran relief ace Chris Martin currently on the shelf due to shoulder fatigue without a clear timeline for his return to action. If Rocker can dominate out of the bullpen by pitching at max-effort and not worrying about trying to go multiple innings, then it’s possible that he could get acclimated to the majors more effectively as a reliever and help the Rangers where they’re most in need of a jolt on the pitching side of things.

While starting a top pitching prospect’s career in the bullpen is unusual, it’s hardly unprecedented. Chris Sale stands as perhaps the most notable example of an ace hurler who began in the major league bullpen before converting back to the rotation later on, but Garrett Crochet, Jeff Samardzija, and Texas’s own C.J. Wilson are among a handful of other notable names. Hurlers have even begun converting from relief to rotation roles later in their career in recent years, with Seth Lugo and Clay Holmes standing out as notable examples from the past few seasons. Of course, this strategy would still come with some risk. There’s no guarantee that Rocker would immediately take to a role change, and even if he did the Rangers would effectively be hollowing out some of their rotation depth by not letting Rocker stay stretched out and using him in shorter bursts.

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Texas Rangers Kumar Rocker

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Orioles Select Chadwick Tromp, Designate Cooper Hummel For Assignment

By Darragh McDonald | May 26, 2025 at 2:10pm CDT

The Orioles announced that they have selected the contract of catcher Chadwick Tromp. Utility player Cooper Hummel has been designated for assignment as the corresponding move. The club’s 40-man roster count stays at 39.

The moves seem to be motivated by the Baltimore catching corps being banged up. Gary Sánchez has already been on the injured for about a month due to wrist inflammation. Adley Rutschman took a foul ball off the mask yesterday and left the game, getting replaced by Maverick Handley. Rutschman is still on the roster but it’s possible he isn’t going to be available for a day or two, with Handley in the lineup today, so the club has added another backstop for insurance.

Tromp, 30, signed a minor league deal with the O’s in April. He had been with Atlanta for a number of years but got squeezed out there. That club promoted Drake Baldwin to pair with Sean Murphy as the big league catching tandem earlier this year. Tromp is out of options, so he got sent off the 40-man, eventually clearing waivers and electing free agency.

He has since played 20 games for Triple-A Norfolk, getting 71 plate appearances. He has three home runs and a strong 11.3% walk rate, though also a high strikeout rate of 25.4%. His .254/.338/.413 line translates to a 106 wRC+. His major league career has led to a less impressive .224/.235/.385 line and 62 wRC+ in 162 plate appearances, though he’s considered a solid defender and has often hit well in the minors.

It’s possible it will be a fairly short stay in the big leagues. As mentioned, Rutschman has avoided the IL so far and might be back in the lineup in a few days. Given Tromp’s out-of-options status, it’s possible he is destined for DFA limbo again in the near future, though optioning Handley is another possibility the O’s could consider.

Hummel losing his roster spot today is an unfortunate bit of collateral damage connected to the catching situation. The O’s just added him to the roster yesterday. Like Tromp, he is out of options and got squeezed away from another club.

He started the season with the Astros and hit .316/.435/.447 in spring training but didn’t make the Opening Day roster. He was sent through waivers unclaimed, elected free agency and signed a minor league deal with the Yankees. He was hurt for a while and only got into ten Triple-A games for the Yanks but nonetheless decided to trigger a release clause in that deal, which allowed him to sign with the O’s.

Now it’s possible that Hummel is destined for the open market again. The O’s will likely place him on waivers in the coming days. He could get claimed based on his strong minor league numbers but no one grabbed him earlier in the year. If he goes unclaimed, he would have the right to elect free agency, as he did a couple of months back.

Dating back to the start of 2021, he has 1,460 minor league plate appearances with a 17.6% walk rate and 20.8% strikeout rate. That’s helped him produce a combined .284/.419/.475 line and 132 wRC+ in that time. He has also played catcher and the four corner spots, though his last work behind the plate was in 2023.

Photo courtesy of Brett Davis, Imagn Images

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Baltimore Orioles Transactions Chadwick Tromp Cooper Hummel

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Athletics Outright Seth Brown

By Darragh McDonald | May 26, 2025 at 1:25pm CDT

First baseman/outfielder Seth Brown has been sent outright to Triple-A Las Vegas, according to his transactions tracker at MLB.com. That indicates he cleared waivers after being designated for assignment last week.

Brown has the right to elect free agency but is unlikely to do so. Players with at least three years of service time have the right to reject outright assignments and head to the open market. However, a player with less than five years of service would have to forfeit his remaining salary in order to exercise that right. Brown is in between those two markers. He and the A’s avoided arbitration in the offseason by agreeing to a $2.7MM salary. He presumably wants to keep that money flowing and will therefore report to Vegas.

For the A’s, they will hold onto Brown as a relatively expensive non-roster depth piece, though one with some major league success under his belt. He hit .224/.294/.457 for a 111 wRC+ during the 2021 and 2022 seasons. He dipped in 2023, producing a .222/.286/.405 line and 91 wRC+.

His 2024 was fairly similar to his 2023 but with a strong finish. He hit .202/.263/.347 for a 77 wRC+ in the first half but then had a .263/.304/.413 line and 107 wRC+ in the second half. That gave the A’s enough confidence to tender him a contract going into 2025, but that bet hasn’t paid off thus far. He hit .212/.328/.308 for an 89 wRC+ before getting designated for assignment last week.

Due to that performance and his salary, no club was willing to take him on. He’ll now look to get back in a groove and work his way back to the majors, as he did in 2024. The A’s are giving some playing time to fairly inexperienced players like Denzel Clarke and Logan Davidson, so it’s entirely possible that they decide to send those guys back to the minors at some point. And as always, an injury could arise at any time, which could lead to Brown getting called back up.

Photo courtesy of Jayne Kamin-Oncea, Imagn Images

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Oakland Athletics Transactions Seth Brown

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Poll: Can The Cardinals Keep This Up?

By Nick Deeds | May 26, 2025 at 12:20pm CDT

Today is Memorial Day, and the conventional wisdom in baseball suggests that means the current standings now have more signal than noise moving forward. Perhaps that means it’s time to take the Cardinals, who have been white-hot in recent weeks, more seriously despite the narratives surrounding their quiet offseason and slow start to the year last month. A nine-game win streak earlier this month has helped propel them to a 16-4 record over their past 20 games and a 30-23 record overall. That’s put them in a statistical tie with the Padres for the final NL Wild Card spot as things stand and just two games back of the Cubs in the NL Central.

When looking at the eight teams that have won 30+ games entering Memorial Day, it’s hard to deny that the Cardinals are the most surprising. As previously mentioned, they made virtually no additions this winter as they signed Phil Maton late in the offseason but otherwise stood pat while players like Paul Goldschmidt and Kyle Gibson departed the organization. Perhaps even more surprising is the fact that players who appeared likely to be a big part of any success the Cardinals may have had this year, like youngsters Jordan Walker and Nolan Gorman, are struggling badly. Willson Contreras was a standout at the plate last year but has been merely league average this season and is currently day-to-day with a back injury, while Nolan Arenado is hitting at a below-average clip after the Cards failed to trade him this winter. Even on-paper ace Sonny Gray has a middling 4.06 ERA through 11 starts, and closer Ryan Helsley’s 3.50 ERA is his weakest since 2021.

Instead of the usual suspects, the Cardinals’ successes have come from unlikely places. The best hitter on the team is Brendan Donovan, who has long been a steady piece for St. Louis but now appears to be in the midst of a breakout season in his age-28 campaign with a 140 wRC+ and 2.0 fWAR across 51 games. The ace of the rotation is Matthew Liberatore, who has a 2.73 ERA in ten starts so far despite having never posted an ERA below 4.40 in the big leagues before and not even being assured of a rotation role entering camp this year. Behind Liberatore, Miles Mikolas has turned back the clock in his age-36 season to post a solid 3.51 ERA in his first ten starts and fellow veteran Steven Matz has been brilliant in a swing role with a 1.99 ERA in 31 2/3 innings of work.

All of this surprising performances beg the question: how sustainable can this be? Mikolas, Andre Pallante, and Erick Fedde are all pitching well above their peripherals so far this year. Impressive as he’s been, Ivan Herrera won’t finish the year with a wRC+ above 200. Even Donovan’s .360 BABIP must be looked at with at least some skepticism, as should the league average performance the Cards have gotten out of Victor Scott II and his .368 BABIP. On the other hand, many of the club’s more established players should be expected to improve. Gray and Contreras have both performed to their usual All-Star caliber levels when looking at the underlying metrics, Arenado’s .245 BABIP would be the lowest of his career in a full season, and Lars Nootbaar’s solid 112 wRC+ may be just the tip of the iceberg with his discipline and power potential. There’s also some players, such as Liberatore and Donovan, whose breakouts are fairly convincing even if they aren’t locks to stay quite as good as they have been so far.

Where does that leave the Cardinals? If you look at the playoff odds over at Fangraphs, the answer is likely outside of the final playoff picture. The club is projected by the site for an 84-win season with a 39.1% chance of making the playoffs. If you gave fans in St. Louis those odds at the start of the 2025 season, the vast majority would’ve surely taken that happily. As it stands, however, winning a touch under half their games for the rest of the season would surely be a disappointing outcome after this exciting start to the season. At the same time, it’s not hard to see why projection systems might doubt the Cardinals. The NL Wild Card race has been extremely competitive so far, even with strong teams like the Diamondbacks and Braves struggling to find their footing so far. That could make St. Louis’s best path to the postseason through the NL Central, where the Cubs are projected to win 90 games and have the NL’s easiest schedule the rest of the way.

Where do MLBTR readers believe the Cardinals will end up? Is postseason baseball returning to St. Louis this October, or will this team wind up at home like they did the past two seasons? Have your say in the poll below:

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