The Guardians made it all the way to the ALCS last year while dominating an AL Central division that sent three teams to the playoffs, and over the offseason they augmented their lineup with players like Carlos Santana, Nolan Jones, and Luis Ortiz. While that hasn’t been enough to prevent the Tigers from becoming the kings of the hill in the division, it’s still been more than enough to keep the Guardians firmly in the AL playoff picture throughout the year. They currently sport a solid 29-25 record, which leaves them tied with the Astros in the standings for the second of three AL Wild Card spots.
Cracks have begun to show in Cleveland’s armor, however. Their 93 wRC+ as a team gives them the eighth-worst offense in the majors this year, down from last year’s 100 wRC+ that was dead-on average and good for a median 8th in the AL. The rotation, similarly, is in the bottom eight in baseball by measure of both ERA (4.21) and FIP (4.52) this year. That’s actually one spot better than last year’s team, which ranked seventh from the bottom in rotation ERA (4.40) and FIP (4.51), but the pitching has deteriorated overall thanks to a massive step back for the club’s once-impenetrable bullpen.
Relievers have always been fickle when it comes to year-to-year performance, and evidently even a group as dominant as the Guardians’ 2024 bullpen is subject to variance. After leading baseball in both ERA (2.57) and FIP (3.30) out of the pen by a substantial margin last year, this year’s relief corps is actually below average by ERA (4.01), and has fallen to eighth in the majors (3.58) by measure of FIP. For a team that leaned so heavily on elite performances from pieces like Emmanuel Clase and Cade Smith last year, a leaky bullpen is a major concern.
On some level, it’s impressive that the Guards have been able to win even this much given their backsliding offense and much weaker contributions from the bullpen. With that being said, those flaws have made them the only team presently in playoff position in either league with a negative run differential; they’ve allowed 20 more runs than they’ve scored entering play today, and the next weakest mark among that group is held by a Padres club that has done the inverse, with 20 more runs scored than allowed.
Will Cleveland be able to either improve those underlying numbers, or continue winning in spite of them? One thing that should benefit them is that their bullpen’s underlying metrics remain strong. As previously mentioned, they remain a top-ten club by bullpen FIP, and their relief corps’s 3.39 SIERA is good for an even better sixth in the majors. There’s some positive signs on offense, too, with Jones significantly under-performing his expected metrics and Lane Thomas likely to improve his performance the longer he’s back from the injured list. The rotation should get reinforcements eventually, as well, with longtime ace Shane Bieber expected back from Tommy John surgery at some point this year.
Even if those players don’t manage to turn things around, the Guardians could still benefit from a weak AL playoff field. While no team within even six games of a playoff spot in the NL has a negative run differential entering play today, the Royals, Rangers, and Blue Jays all have negative run differentials and make up three of the four teams within three games of an AL Wild Card spot. Unlike the Guardians, those clubs haven’t been so fortunate as to substantially outperform their expected records in the early going, with Texas and Toronto in particular both underwater at present. Each of those teams have their own flaws and challenges that could make it hard for them to catch the Guardians, while a more well-constructed club like the Red Sox just lost Alex Bregman and is currently on a four-game skid that leaves them 3.5 games behind Cleveland.
How do MLBTR readers view the Guardians’ playoff situation? Will they be able to hold onto their position in the playoff race for the long haul in spite of the early red flags? Or will another team emerge to push them out of the conversation? Have your say in the poll below:
The AL depth is weak… i’ll take the Guards over any of these other teams lurking around .500.
KC is bottom 5 in MLB on offense and they’re only 1 game out of a WC spot.
One question is the ability to make moves…
I feel like a team of the ilk of the TOR are more likely than CLE to swing deadline deals… that’s one big consideration for fringe teams.
Kudos to nick for giving me a good chuckle though… BOS isn’t really what I’d consider a better constructed team, and, that’s coming from a fan of the club
Guards recent history says they will make at least one deal, maybe more.
They need to get Kayfus or DeLauter in RF.. Just something to find an offensive spark.
It’s May…
What a hoot ! They just took 3 from Detroit in Detroit. Detroit will be there, and so will they.
Colorado recently took a 3-2 game from the Yankees and got simply outplayed that game by the worst MLB team. Guards will keep being a thorn on your side.
Sure hope they can hang on! Some very fun teams in the AL Central this year so it’ll be a long ride lol. Also, for anyone who knows, sorry about that clown from Barstool named Tate. We don’t claim him (even if his Skubal article was satire)…yikes that dude is salty about Michigan sports.
Please don’t refer to baseball players or anybody else as “pieces.” It’s an objectifying and dehumanizing term. Same as calling a girlfriend-on-the-side a “side-piece.”
Exactly the same, literally.
LMAO
No, the Guardians look futile. Their offense hasn’t impressed me since the Mike Hargrove days. The pitching has carried them in the past but with the regression of the bullpen and five-and-dive nature of their up-and-down rotation I just can’t see it all jive together. But if anyone can paste it all together, it’s their uber-talented manager, but even he’s merely human.
Cleveland plays together. Jose Ramirez sets the pace and it’s all in. Kwan would play LF and hit leadoff for most every team. I think Martinez is a good player just getting started. He should play almost every game in CF. Fast , switch hitter. They have serviceable others but really need a bopper in RF. Could also use a better SS or 2B (or both)
Bullpen has been pretty good, not as lights-out as last season. Unfortunately, I can see the group over-used and out of gas before the finish line. The once-vaunted SP is highly questionable. They fall short of 6-inning starters even. The supply chain has been interrupted.
Some of their guys, like OFs Thomas, Noel, Jones could help other teams but collectively they short out Cleveland offense. 13 versus ChiSox is fine perk for AL Central membership that helps in standings by comparison but other 3 division teams are improved so not as easy as 2016-2023 anymore.
They do compete and the tribute goes to Ramirez, Kwan, Santana, Hedges and Vogt for leadership. It’d be nice if the font office/ownership could lend a hand.. Development in starting rotation has glimmers of hope.
I voted that they fall short,, knowling I am often incorrect LOL.
History during the Francona-Vogt era says their odds are good.
I think Angel Martinez is there next stud. But having Kayfus or DeLauter in the lineup would help significantly.
The Guardians…and Brewers…seem to do this every freaking year. I can’t speak for Milwaukee, but I’ve followed Cleveland closely since the 50s. I watch almost every game. I study the individual stats, and the metrics behind them, every day. They almost always say that what the Guardians are doing can’t be sustained..but they just keep winning.
The only explanation I can come up with is that culture and intangibles..the things that can’t be measured…exist in spades in the Cleveland organization.
Especially since Francona took over.
Unbelievably to me, Vogt stepped in and didn’t miss a beat. They both manage a baseball team like Yo Yo Ma plays a cello.
Every year the whole is greater than the sum of the parts…because the players buy in. If they don’t, they are soon gone. It all starts with Jose Ramirez. Ohtani and Judge are the greatest players of this generation, but Ramirez finds more ways to win than any player I’ve ever seen.
The front office helps him out by paying for leadership, right now in the form of Austin Hedges and Carlos Santana. All the kids just follow their examples.
But its not like the roster is totally devoid of talent. All five of the present starters were first round picks and/or top 100 prospects. Ten of the position players on the 40 man were the same.
I voted yes in the poll, but its not because of any stats.
Get rid of Deeds already. This is a disaster: “There’s some positive signs on offense, too, with Jones significantly under-performing his expected metrics and Lane Thomas likely to improve his performance the longer he’s back from the injured list. The rotation should get reinforcements eventually, as well, with longtime ace Shane Bieber expected back from Tommy John surgery at some point this year.”
There’s some positive signs? You realize that you’re saying “there is some positive signs?” Write with proper grammar. Also, commas before “too” and “as well” are wrong.