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A’s Have Two Rotation Spots Up For Grabs In Camp

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The A’s added back-end starter Aaron Civale on a $6MM free agent contract this week. He slots behind Luis Severino and Jeffrey Springs as experienced arms in an otherwise young rotation. Manager Mark Kotsay suggested on Wednesday that while the three veterans were locked into starting spots, camp battles could decide the final two roles. “It’s definitely an open competition,” the fourth-year skipper told Martín Gallegos of MLB.com. “I think we do have some depth this year that we haven’t had in the past.”

Of the A’s returning starters, only Springs and Severino got to 100 MLB innings last season. Jacob Lopez led the way with 92 2/3 frames across 21 appearances (17 starts). He was followed in MLB workload by J.T. Ginn, Luis Morales, Gunnar Hoglund, Mason Barnett and Jack Perkins. Morales and Lopez had the most success and enter camp as the presumptive favorites.

The 23-year-old Morales turned in a 3.14 earned run average over his first 48 2/3 MLB frames. His 21.6% strikeout percentage and 9% walk rate weren’t as impressive, and his fly-ball profile led to some home run trouble. The underlying numbers would suggest he’s a regression candidate, but he could certainly offset that by missing more bats in his first full season. Morales has a 97 mph average fastball and a potential plus breaking ball.

Lopez is a soft-tossing lefty who turns 28 during Spring Training. That points to a lower ceiling than Morales possesses, but he arguably showed more in his rookie season. Lopez punched out 28.3% of opponents behind an above-average 11.8% swinging strike rate. He finished the year with a 4.08 ERA that is skewed by a nine-run drubbing that he took in Seattle just before he went on the injured list with a season-ending flexor strain. He carried a 3.28 earned run average into that appearance.

It was a relatively small sample and it’s easy to see potential downside. Lopez is an extreme fly-ball pitcher who’ll spend the next two seasons in the most hitter-friendly home park outside Colorado. A 90-91 mph average fastball doesn’t give him much margin for error. Home runs are likely to be an issue, but Lopez has always missed more bats than his velocity might suggest thanks to a quality slider and plus command. Gallegos writes that Lopez is slightly behind schedule because of the late-season forearm issue but should have time to log a full Spring Training workload.

Ginn probably has the best chance to push one of Morales or Lopez for a season-opening rotation spot. He fanned a quarter of opponents against an 8% walk rate while getting ground-balls more than half the time. A lot of the fly balls that he did give up cleared the fences. Sutter Health Park did Ginn no favors, as 12 of his 17 home runs allowed came at home. He had a near-7.00 ERA in Sacramento compared to a 3.14 ERA on the road. The cumulative result was a 5.08 mark across 90 1/3 innings.

Barnett was called up late in the season. He was hit hard over five starts, posting a near-7.00 ERA through 22 1/3 innings. He has shown intriguing stuff, headlined by a mid-90s fastball and quality slider, but the command has been inconsistent throughout his minor league career. Hoglund is a former first-round pick whose prospect stock had tumbled after Tommy John surgery. He seemed to put himself back on the map with a strong six-start run in Triple-A, but major league opponents teed off over his first six career outings. He underwent season-ending hip surgery in June.

Perkins started four of 12 appearances after being called up in June. He suffered a season-ending shoulder strain in August. He sat around 96 mph on the fastball and got excellent results on a mid-80s breaking ball. Perkins’ minor league numbers suggest he might be better suited in the bullpen, however. He walked 11.3% of Triple-A opponents and has posted double digit walk rates in three straight seasons.

Luis Medina and Joey Estes have some MLB experience and hold 40-man roster spots. Medina is out of options and missed all of last season rehabbing Tommy John surgery. He’s probably ticketed for long relief to open the season, while Estes could be on the fringe of the 40-man roster. Medina is the only member of this group aside from the three veterans who cannot be optioned.

The highest-upside arms in the organization are still in the minor leagues. Gage Jump and Jamie Arnold are two of the top pitching prospects in the sport. Jump has an outside chance to break camp after posting a 3.64 ERA while striking out a quarter of opponents over 20 Double-A appearances. He’s not on the 40-man roster, but each of Braden Nett, Henry Baez and Chen Zhong-Ao Zhuang are. They’re solid prospects (Nett and Baez, in particular) who have Double-A experience and could get some consideration to break camp if they really impress during Spring Training.

Twins To Sign Julian Merryweather To Minor League Deal

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The Twins are bringing in reliever Julian Merryweather on a minor league contract, reports Dan Hayes of The Athletic. The client of Warner Sports Management will be in camp as a non-roster invitee. Minnesota also agreed to a minor league deal with Liam Hendriks this evening.

Merryweather made 21 appearances for the Cubs last season. He was hit hard, surrendering 13 runs (12 earned) across 18 2/3 innings. Merryweather struck out 15 while issuing 11 walks. Chicago released him at the end of May. Merryweather finished the season on successive minor league contracts with the Mets and Brewers. He didn’t find much more success in Triple-A, where he was tagged for a 5.87 ERA across 23 innings.

The 34-year-old righty has pitched parts of six MLB seasons between the Blue Jays and Cubs. He had one above-average season, firing 72 frames of 3.38 ERA ball in 2023. The past two years have been a struggle, and he holds a 4.72 mark over 158 1/3 career innings. Merryweather has a 96 mph fastball with a good slider but has never had strong command. He’s also battled various injuries, including 2018 Tommy John surgery and oblique/abdominal issues in 2020 and ’22, respectively.

As was the case for Hendriks, it’s easy to see the appeal for Merryweather in signing with Minnesota. There’s a strong opportunity for non-roster bullpen arms. Minnesota has a patchwork bullpen that probably only has four locks: Taylor Rogers, Justin Topa, Cole Sands and Kody Funderburk. Trade pickup Eric Orze should enter camp with a good chance to win a job. Jackson Kowar is out of options and needs to make the team or be designated for assignment. Kowar has a career 8.21 ERA, while everyone else aside from Rogers and Topa have a minor league option remaining. Dan Altavilla, Matt Bowman and Grant Hartwig are also in camp as non-roster invitees.

Twins, Liam Hendriks Agree To Minor League Deal

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The Twins have an agreement to bring veteran reliever Liam Hendriks back to Minnesota, reports Robert Murray of FanSided. It’s a minor league deal with an invite to MLB camp for the client of ALIGND Sports Agency, reports Jon Heyman of The New York Post.

It’s a homecoming for Hendriks, who signed with the Twins as an amateur out of Australia and made his MLB debut at Target Field in September 2011. Hendriks spent parts of three seasons with the club, struggling to a 6.06 ERA in 30 appearances (28 starts). The Twins designated him for assignment over the 2013-14 offseason and lost him on waivers.

Hendriks bounced around the league for a few years before a full-time move to the bullpen and accompanying velocity spike took him to a much higher level. The righty broke out as an elite closer in Oakland and continued on that pace after signing a four-year free agent deal with the White Sox. He earned three All-Star nods, finished top 10 in Cy Young balloting in consecutive seasons (2020-21) and led the American League in saves.

The past couple seasons have been far more challenging. Hendriks famously was diagnosed with non-Hodgkin’s lymphoma in the 2022-23 winter, though he quickly beat the disease. His return to the field was unfortunately cut short by an elbow injury. Hendriks underwent Tommy John surgery and has barely pitched over the last three seasons split between Chicago and Boston. He missed all of ’24 and was limited to 14 MLB appearances last year by a series of setbacks.

Elbow inflammation shelved him early in the year. He landed on the injured list at the end of May with an abdominal strain. Hendriks attempted to ramp up in September but felt renewed forearm discomfort and underwent ulnar surgery that ended his season. The Red Sox bought him out after just 13 2/3 innings of 11-run ball.

Although he settled for a minor league contract, Hendriks has a good chance to make the team. Minnesota has a patchwork bullpen that probably only has four locks: Taylor Rogers, Justin Topa, Cole Sands and Kody Funderburk. Trade pickup Eric Orze should enter camp with a good chance to win a job, while Jackson Kowar is out of options and needs to make the team or be designated for assignment. Kowar has a career 8.21 ERA, while everyone else aside from Rogers and Topa have a minor league option remaining.

As a player with six years of service time who finished last season on Boston’s major league roster, Hendriks hit the market as an Article XX(b) free agent. That means this deal comes with a trio of automatic opt-out dates under the collective bargaining agreement. He can trigger an out clause five days before Opening Day, on May 1, or on June 1. If he does, the Twins would have two days to either promote him or grant him his release.

Pirates Sign José Urquidy

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February 11: Pittsburgh officially announced Urquidy’s one-year deal on Wednesday evening. Jones was placed on the 60-day injured list in a corresponding move. He’ll miss at least the first two months of the regular season but could be back before the All-Star Break as he rehabs from the elbow procedure. Pittsburgh will need to make another 40-man roster move — likely designating someone for assignment — once they finalize their agreement with DH Marcell Ozuna.

February 5: The Pirates and right-hander José Urquidy are reportedly in agreement on a one-year, $5MM contract. Urquidy, an Octagon client, can boost that salary further via incentives.

Pittsburgh generated headlines yesterday when they jumped in as a late entrant in the Framber Valdez bidding before he ultimately went to the Tigers last night. They’ll still add a former Astros hurler to reunite with new pitching coach Bill Murphy, though on a much smaller scale. Murphy coached Urquidy with Houston from 2021-24.

From 2021-22, Urquidy was an unheralded but quality member of the Houston rotation, starting 48 games and pitching to a solid 3.81 ERA with a 20.3% strikeout rate and a tiny 5.2% walk rate. Injuries began to slow him down in 2023. He missed three months with a shoulder injury that season, and his entire 2024 campaign was wiped out by an elbow injury that ultimately required Tommy John surgery over the summer. The 2025 season had been scheduled to be Urquidy’s final year of club control, so the Astros unsurprisingly cut him loose following the season.

Urquidy latched on with the Tigers on a one-year, $1MM contract that included a 2026 club option valued at $4MM. He returned from the injured list in September but pitched only 2 1/3 innings in the majors before consenting to be optioned. He pitched well in the minors last year (2.91 ERA, 22.2 K%, 6.2 BB% in 21 2/3 frames) but was hit hard in his small big league sample. The Tigers opted to decline their 2026 option and send Urquidy back to the open market.

With the injury troubles ostensibly behind him, Urquidy heads to the Pirates as an interesting buy-low candidate with some upside. Because he favors a changeup as his go-to offspeed pitch, he has substantial reverse splits in his career. Lefties have posted an awful .203/.257/.362 slash against him, whereas righties — with some help from the short left-field porch in Houston — have tagged him for a .267/.314/.468 batting line. Moving from one of the best environments for right-handed home runs to perhaps the worst in MLB will surely benefit his skill set.

Exactly what role the Pirates have in store for Urquidy, who turns 31 in May, remains to be seen. The Bucs are as deep as nearly any team in the sport when it comes to starting pitching but seem to add a low-cost veteran around this time of the offseason every year. In the past, that’s meant short-term pickups of Tyler Anderson, Jose Quintana, Martín Pérez and Andrew Heaney. Urquidy isn’t a lefty like that quartet but still seems to meet general manager Ben Cherington’s annual bargain starter quota.

Reigning NL Cy Young winner Paul Skenes will, of course, be the Pirates’ Opening Day starter. He’ll be followed in some order by veteran Mitch Keller and young flamethrowers Bubba Chandler and Braxton Ashcraft, both of whom impressed as rookies in 2025. Urquidy will join a competition for the fifth spot that includes Carmen Mlodzinski, Hunter Barco, Thomas Harrington and Jared Jones, who’ll be returning from 2024 Tommy John surgery. Mlodzinski fared better as a reliever than a starter last season, so this move could push him to the ’pen. If Urquidy is outshined by Jones, Barco or Harrington in camp, he could open the season in a swingman capacity.

Will Sammon of The Athletic first reported that the sides had an agreement. Jon Heyman of The New York Post reported that it was a $1.5MM base with incentives.

Astros, Pirates Have Discussed Joey Bart

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Earlier this month, the Pirates were reported to have interest in trading for Astros third baseman Isaac Paredes. That no longer seems to be on the table now that Pittsburgh has agreed to a one-year, $12MM contract with DH Marcell Ozuna. Indeed, Jason Mackey of the Pittsburgh Post-Gazette confirmed that those trade talks have “since gone quiet.” However, Mackey also added a notable tidbit about those talks: The two sides discussed catcher Joey Bart as part of the package the Pirates would send to the Astros in exchange for the two-time All-Star Paredes. Mackey went on to speculate that it wouldn’t be surprising to see Bart come up in future trade talks as well.

After years of struggling to live up to his top-prospect billing in San Francisco, Bart blossomed into a productive part-time player with Pittsburgh. Over the past two seasons, he owns a .745 OPS and a 110 wRC+ in 173 games. His defensive metrics have been poor but passable, considering his above-average offense. All in all, he has produced 1.3 FanGraphs WAR in back-to-back campaigns; his 2.6 total fWAR puts him among the game’s top 25 catchers since 2024.

As valuable as Bart has been for the Pirates the last two years, they can afford to part with him. General manager Ben Cherington told reporters (including Mackey) that he believes former top prospects Henry Davis and Endy Rodríguez are capable of handling a “primary” catcher’s workload. He expressed the same faith in rookie Rafael Flores Jr. While Cherington went on to say that he will “hold onto that depth” for as long as he can, eventually, he’ll have to make a decision. The Pirates can’t carry four catchers on their Opening Day roster. The club certainly could decide to stick with Bart, the most proven choice, and option two of Davis, Rodríguez, and Flores to the minors. Yet, trading Bart also seems to be on the table.

The Astros still make sense as a suitor. After losing Victor Caratini in free agency to the Twins, Houston only has two catchers on its 40-man roster: starter Yainer Diaz and projected backup César Salazar. Non-roster invitee Carlos Pérez is the only other backstop in camp with big league experience. Salazar is entering his age-30 season with a .586 OPS, 0.3 fWAR, and 36 MLB games to his name. Pérez hasn’t played in the majors since 2023. And while Diaz ranked seventh among catchers in defensive innings last year, he still only started 111 games. There’s no question he could use a more proven backup.

The Rays are another potential suitor to consider; they were reportedly hoping to trade for a catcher back in January after missing out on free agent J.T. Realmuto. The Red Sox are another team that was, at least at one point, looking to improve behind the dish. Bart is set to make $2.53MM in his second year of arbitration eligibility. He will remain under team control through 2027.

MLB Mailbag: Orioles, Braves, Castellanos, Brewers, Hot Takes

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This week's mailbag gets into the Orioles' and Braves' rotations, whether Nick Castellanos could help the Tigers, and what the Brewers will do at third base after trading Caleb Durbin.  It concludes with a bunch of my half-baked "hot takes" for your amusement.  I'd love to see yours in the comments.

Michael asks:

Why couldn't the Orioles have signed Ranger Suarez? Seems like they whiffed on this deal.

I don't know that it needed to be Suarez specifically, but Orioles president of baseball operations and GM Mike Elias has thus far failed to add a front of the rotation starting pitcher.  Shane Baz is probably good for 2 WAR and still has breakout potential.  But (likely) better pitchers such as Suarez, Dylan Cease, Sonny Gray, Framber Valdez, Michael King, MacKenzie Gore, and Freddy Peralta were available this winter and the Orioles didn't add any of them.

Elias had this to say in a recent press conference: "I think we’ve put together a really strong rotation as it stands right now. We’ll continue to look externally, if we can bolster this group in one way, shape or form. … But I think that this rotation looks good."

Elias could still boost the team by one or even two wins by signing Zac Gallen, and Bob Nightengale of USA Today did name the Orioles as one of four suitors.  Still, any of the above would've been better.  Elias noted that "late signings can be tricky," implying that his interest in adding a notable free agent starter might diminish by (in my estimation) the end of the month.

FanGraphs projects the Orioles' rotation to be the 17th-best in MLB.  That includes 3.1 WAR from Kyle Bradish in 148 innings.  I think Bradish is good for more than that, though I'm also not confident Zach Eflin can reach his 146 inning projection, so maybe it's a wash.  Eflin underwent lumbar microdiscectomy surgery last August and aims to be ready for Opening Day.

FanGraphs' projections currently calls for five different Orioles pitchers to reach 146 innings.  Is there any chance of that happening?

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Nationals Sign Miles Mikolas

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The Nationals added an innings eater on Wednesday, announcing a one-year contract with veteran right-hander Miles Mikolas. It’s reportedly a $2.25MM base salary for the Octagon client, who can earn another $750K in bonuses. Mikolas would collect $100K apiece for every 10 innings between 100 and 120, $200K at 130 frames, and $250K at 140 innings. DJ Herz has been placed on the 60-day injured list to open a spot on the 40-man roster. Herz underwent Tommy John surgery last April.

Mikolas, 37, became a workhorse in his mid-thirties. He began his career with the Padres and Rangers before spending three years with the Yomiuri Giants in NPB. During the 2017-18 offseason, he signed with the Cardinals and made 32 starts in each of the next two years, but forearm issues kept him off the field for most of 2020-21. Since 2022, he has started at least 31 games each year, including a league-leading 35 in 2023. Only one pitcher, Logan Webb, has made more starts than Mikolas over the last four seasons, and only four have thrown more innings.

Unfortunately for Mikolas, the quality of those innings has declined as he has aged and his stuff has diminished. In 2025, he pitched to a 4.84 ERA and a 4.83 SIERA. While the righty has never been one to rack up strikeouts, his strikeout rate and strikeout-to-walk ratio dropped to 14.9% and 2.70, respectively, the lowest either has ever been since before he left for Japan. The only pitcher to throw at least 150 innings last year with a worse strikeout rate was Mikolas’s new Nationals teammate Mitchell Parker. Meanwhile, no pitcher (min. 150 IP) gave up barrels at a higher rate than Mikolas; according to Statcast’s xERA, he ranked among the bottom 9% of pitchers in MLB. Pitch models that evaluate raw stuff, such as Stuff+ and PitchingBot, also suggest that the veteran took a big step back in 2025. Overwhelming batters with nasty stuff was never how he succeeded, but his stuff metrics went from poor to some of the worst in the game this past season.

As negative as all that sounds, it’s important to keep in mind that Mikolas still took the mound 31 times in 2025, tossing 156 1/3 frames. He made eight quality starts and finished five innings in all but seven of his outings. The Nationals badly needed an innings eater for a woefully inexperienced rotation set to include names like Josiah Gray, Cade Cavalli, Foster Griffin, Jake Irvin, Brad Lord, and Parker. Of those arms, only Irvin and Parker have pitched so much as one qualifying major league season, while Gray is the only other to have a 30-start campaign under his belt. It’s a group replete with injury concerns, consistency issues, and limited track records. The dependable Mikolas will boost the floor of what projects to be one of the worst starting rotations in the league.

TalkNats first reported the Nationals and Mikolas had conversations. Jake Mintz of Yahoo Sports! was first on the agreement. Mark Zuckerman of Nats Journal confirmed it was a major league deal, while Jon Heyman of The New York Post had the $2.75MM base plus incentives. The Associated Press reported the incentive specifics. Image courtesy of Jeff Curry, Imagn Images.

Jacob Stallings Joins Pirates’ Baseball Operations Department

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Longtime major league catcher Jacob Stallings has taken on a new role in the Pirates’ baseball operations department, Stallings tells Jason Mackey of the Pittsburgh Post-Gazette. Specifics surrounding his job are still being ironed out, but for now the plan will be for Stallings to be in Pittsburgh around once a month to consult with the front office and spend time visiting minor league affiliates throughout the year to work on the development of the organization’s young catchers.

Stallings tells Mackey that he played through notable back pain last season and knew as the year wore on that he was likely to retire following the 2025 campaign. The veteran backstop adds that playing for Skip Schumaker with the 2023 Marlins helped him to realize the type of impact a coach/manager whose playing career has just ended could have on players throughout the organization. Time will tell whether Stallings sticks in baseball operations or takes on more of a player development or even coaching role moving forward, but he’s jumping right back into the game following what appears to be the final season of his playing career.

Stallings, 36, opened the 2025 season on the Rockies’ roster. He’d re-signed on a one-year deal after hitting .263/.357/.453 as Colorado’s primary backstop the season prior. Things didn’t go nearly as well in ’25. Stallings hit just .143/.217/.179 in 93 plate appearances before being cut loose in Denver. He briefly latched on with the Orioles when they were hit with a litany of catcher injuries but appeared in only 14 games before being passed through waivers and electing free agency.

All told, Stallings appeared in parts of 10 major league seasons. The former seventh-round pick suited up for 577 games between the Pirates, Marlins, Rockies and Orioles, tallying 1922 plate appearances and batting .232/.311/.340 (77 wRC+). While Stallings was rarely a big threat with the bat, he for several years ranked as one of the game’s premier defenders behind the plate. He won a Gold Glove with the Pirates in 2021 and nabbed 21% of runners who attempted to steal against him in his career. That mark was weighed down by some low percentages later in his career, but from 2019-20 Stallings thwarted 36.2% of the runners who took off during his watch.

Stallings accrued more than seven years of major league service time and took home about $12MM in his playing career. He’ll now have a say in helping to guide the next generation of Pirates catchers and could use that opportunity as a launching point into any number of other career paths within the sport.

Readers — Pirates fans in particular — will want to check out Stallings’ interview with Mackey in full for quotes on his experiences mentoring younger catchers as a player, his relationship with Schumaker, some of the strengths he sees in new Pittsburgh skipper Don Kelly, and more.

Kris Bubic Wins Arbitration Hearing

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Left-hander Kris Bubic won his arbitration hearing against the Royals, reports Mark Feinsand of MLB.com. He’ll be paid the $6.15MM salary figure he and his reps at Apex Baseball submitted rather than the $5.15MM figure submitted by the team.

Bubic, 28, looked well on his way to a breakout in 2025 before a strained rotator cuff ended his season in late July. He’s shown flashes off a new gear upon returning from Tommy John surgery in 2024, when he posted a 2.67 ERA with eye-popping strikeout and walk rates (32.2%, 4.1%) in a small sample of 30 1/3 frames of relief work. He wasn’t quite that dominant in 2025 but still gave reason to buy into the prior season’s results; in 116 1/3 innings back in the Kansas City rotation, Bubic logged a terrific 2.55 ERA with a 24.4% strikeout rate, an 8.2% walk rate and a strong 47.2% ground-ball rate.

Put those two seasons together, and Bubic carries a stout 2.58 ERA, 26% strikeout rate, 7.4% walk rate and 48.8% ground-ball rate in his past 146 2/3 innings. He’s locked into a spot in manager Matt Quatraro’s rotation, and with a full, healthy season will position himself as one of the more desirable arms on next year’s free agent market. This is his final season of club control, given his 5.135 years of big league service time.

Bubic will join Cole Ragans, Seth Lugo, Michael Wacha and Noah Cameron in what should be a formidable Royals rotation. His proximity to free agency prompted the Royals to at least consider the idea of trading him to acquire help on other areas of the big league roster this winter,  but obviously no deal came together. The Mets and Red Sox were both linked to Bubic at various points this winter as they scoured the trade market for rotation upgrades.

If the Royals fall out of contention in the season’s first half, Bubic’s name could once again surface on the trade market. However, provided he’s healthy and anywhere close to his 2024-25 form, he’ll be a qualifying offer candidate, so Kansas City would likely seek a fairly notable return to pry him loose. That’s a down-the-road consideration anyhow; the Royals enter the 2026 season with a very similar club to the one they trotted out in 2026, though they’ll hope that better health and newcomers Isaac Collins, Lane Thomas, Matt Strahm and Nick Mears can help them contend in a perennially thin American League Central.

Eric Lauer Loses Arbitration Case Against Blue Jays

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Eric Lauer lost his arbitration case against the Blue Jays, according to Sportsnet’s Shi Davidi and Ben Nicholson-Smith. He will make $4.4MM this season instead of the $5.75MM he was seeking.

Lauer’s case was particularly interesting. He earned $2.425MM from the Brewers in 2022, his first year of arbitration eligibility. Following a strong season (158 2/3 IP, 3.69 ERA, 4.07 SIERA), he more than doubled his salary, collecting $5.075MM in year two. Then, however, he struggled so badly in an injury-shortened 2023 (46 2/3 IP, 6.56 ERA, 5.31 SIERA) that the Brewers removed him from their roster at the end of the season, and the southpaw elected free agency.

Lauer did not pitch in the majors in 2024; he signed unfruitful minor league contracts with the Pirates and Astros before landing a deal with the KBO’s Kia Tigers. His late-season work in Korea earned him a minor league deal from the Blue Jays last offseason. On April 30, 2025, Lauer returned to the majors. Over the rest of the season, he was a key role-player for the eventual AL champions, pitching to a 3.18 ERA and a 3.88 SIERA in 104 2/3 innings as a hybrid starter/reliever. Unlike many players who return from pitching overseas, Lauer was still eligible for arbitration after 2025, and given his success, it was not surprising when Toronto tendered him a contract.

According to Cot’s Baseball Contracts, the rules of the CBA stipulate that, “In tendering a contract to a player (or renewing the contract of a player not yet arbitration-eligible), a club’s salary offer may not be less than 80% of the player’s salary and performance bonuses the previous year or less than 70% of his salary and performance bonuses from two years earlier. The 80% requirement does not apply if a player won an arbitration award the previous year increasing his salary 50% or more.”

Technically, Lauer’s salary in 2025 was only $2.2MM (which was prorated to just under $1.8MM). However, his salary in his previous year of arbitration eligibility was $5.075MM. Of course, that $5.075MM figure represented more than a 50% increase over his year-one arbitration salary. So, either way, there wasn’t anything wrong with the Blue Jays’ $4.4 million offer – they won the case after all.

However, Lauer was presumably banking on the fact that it’s extremely rare for a player’s salary in his third year of arbitration eligibility to be lower than his salary in his second year of arbitration eligibility. What’s more, as Nicholson-Smith and The Athletic’s Mitch Bannon both recently pointed out, players who exit the arbitration system still typically earn raises when they return. Precedents are important in arbitration hearings, and, evidently, Lauer and his agents thought history would be on their side. In the end, the panel disagreed. The Blue Jays, who filed at $4.4MM – the exact figure predicted by MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz’s model – won the case. This will save the team $1.35MM in payroll and another $1.215MM in luxury tax penalties.

Lauer is expected to fill a swingman role for Toronto once again in 2026. While he currently projects to open the season in the bullpen, Nicholson-Smith notes that he will be stretched out as a starter during spring training.

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