Red Sox Planning Contract Extension Offer For Rafael Devers
The Red Sox are preparing to offer Rafael Devers a long-term contract this winter, WEEI.com’s Rob Bradford reports. In general, most extensions aren’t discussed and/or completed until after the bulk of other offseason business has been completed, so more concrete news on this front might not surface until closer to Spring Training.
It only makes sense that the Sox would look to gain some cost certainty over a player who has emerged as a huge force in 2019. Devers has hit .308/.359/.553 with 32 homers over 697 plate appearances, with a 131 wRC+ that ranks 13th among all qualified batters in baseball. There have been questions about Devers’ ability to stick as a third baseman, though he at least held his own defensively depending on the metric; he had a +3 UZR/150, though a minus-6 in Defensive Runs Saved.
Long considered one of the game’s top prospects, Devers had a nice debut in 2017 before struggling in his first full MLB season in 2018, yet now he looks firmly established as a fixture in Boston’s lineup. To that end, Devers is already under team control through the 2023 season, and he won’t be eligible for arbitration until after the 2020 campaign. The Sox will surely look to lock up at least two or three of his free agent seasons in any extension, though it would come at a high price. Devers will only be 27 years old on Opening Day 2024, and that relatively early entry into free agency will definitely raise his price tag on the open market (assuming he keeps up his current form, of course).
Last spring saw an unprecedented burst of extensions around the game, as a wide variety of players chose financial security over the uncertainty of an increasingly tight free agent market and the potential for labor strife when the current collective bargaining agreement expires following the 2021 season. It’s possible Devers could follow suit, as he hasn’t banked an overt amount of money in his career (minimum salaries and his original $1.5MM international signing bonus) and might want to guarantee himself that proverbial “first fortune.” Devers is represented by Rep 1 Baseball, who had another high-profile client in Luis Severino ink an extension with the Yankees last February.
Alex Bregman also signed a five-year, $100MM extension with the Astros back in March, which Bradford suggests could be a model for a Devers contract. Bregman had hit .282./366/.500 with 58 homers over 1548 PA and 361 games at the time of his deal, while Devers has a .281/.335/.501 career mark with 63 homers through 1422 PA and 333 games. However, Bregman is also over 2.5 years older than Devers, and wouldn’t have hit free agency until after his age-28 season. Bregman is also a more defensively adept player that the Astros can count on to continue as a third baseman for years to come, whereas the Red Sox could still have an eye towards eventually shifting Devers over to first base down the road.
Perhaps the better way to view Bregman’s extension as a comp for Devers is in the specific terms of the agreement. Bregman’s extension doesn’t actually begin until the 2020 season (covering his three arbitration years and first two free agent years), and thus the luxury tax hit associated with the deal doesn’t apply until next year. Had Bregman’s 2019 season also been factored into the contract, it would’ve given him a luxury tax number of roughly $16.66MM, and left Houston with little wiggle room to stay under the $206MM luxury tax threshold. Exceeding that threshold for one year in search of a World Series title might not have been a big deal for the Astros, though with Bregman still on a minimum salary, Houston is still projected to avoid any tax payments even after making a big deadline splash by acquiring Zack Greinke.
As it relates to Devers, one would think the Sox would explore a similar extension, one that wouldn’t begin until 2021 (his first arbitration-eligible year). This would be a huge boost to the club in its goal to get under the luxury tax threshold this winter, since ducking under the $208MM limit and maintaining a competitive roster would be much more difficult if Devers suddenly had a $15-$20MM average annual value attached to his services.
Luis Arraez Suffers Sprained Right Ankle
Twins super-utilityman Luis Arraez had to be carted off the field during the seventh inning of today’s 4-3 Minnesota win over Kansas City. Arraez and teammate Willians Astudillo collided on the pitcher’s mound while chasing a pop-up off the bat of the Royals’ Hunter Dozier.
As ugly as the injury looked, x-rays were negative, and Twins manager Rocco Baldelli told reporters that Arraez suffered a sprained right ankle. The severity of the sprain isn’t yet certain, and the team doesn’t yet know whether or not Arraez will be available for Game One of the ALDS against the Yankees on Friday.
Losing Arraez for the postseason would be a major blow for the Twins, which represents just how much of an impact the 22-year-old has made in his rookie season. After making his MLB debut in mid-May, Arraez was recalled from Triple-A for good on June 18 and has been an everyday player for Minnesota, playing mostly at second base but also seeing significant time as a left fielder and third baseman (plus a handful of games at shortstop).
As a pure contact hitter in today’s power-heavy game, Arraez’s throwback approach has resulted in solidly above-average offensive production (125 wRC+) and a .334/.399/.439 slash line over 366 plate appearances. Arraez’s 8.0% strikeout rate is the lowest of any player with at least 350 PA this season, and he is one of the very few regulars who racked up more walks (36) than strikeouts (29).
There was a bit of good fortune mixed into those results, as Arraez’s .334 xwOBA was below his .367 wOBA and he did enjoy a .355 BABIP. But his performance wasn’t exactly a surprise, as Arraez consistently scored high BABIP totals while also posting high averages and on-base numbers during his six years in Minnesota’s farm system. Arraez wasn’t considered to be a top-flight prospect, though he did hit .331/.385/.414 over 1585 PA as a Twins minor leaguer.
Even if Arraez is out for Game One, the Twins are expected to get some reinforcements back in the form of Max Kepler and Marwin Gonzalez. Arraez essentially usurped the super-util role the Twins had in mind for Gonzalez when they signed him to a two-year, $21MM free agent deal last winter, though Gonzalez has battled some injuries and been inconsistent at the plate.
AL Notes: Tigers, Paxton, Cease, Orioles
Although Tigers manager Ron Gardenhire has indicated his desire to return to the club next season, the fate of his coaching staff may yet be up in the air, according to Evan Woodbery of MLive Media Group. With the season coming to a close, general manager Al Avila and company are apparently still faced with decisions regarding the status of the team’s staff, with announcements to come at season’s end. As The Athletic’s Cody Stavenhagen speculates, that certainly makes it seem like changes are coming, though of course any relevant announcements will have to wait. Gardenhire previously expressed his hope that his staff would remain intact for 2020, the final year of his contract. That group includes familiar faces like Rick Anderson and Steve Liddle, as well as Lloyd McClendon and Ramon Santiago. However, after such a dreadful year in all facets of the game, the front office will certainly look critically at the coaching.
From elsewhere around the American League…
- Yankees fans shook their heads in disbelief as starter James Paxton left yesterday’s game after just one inning. However, it seems that the team managed to avoid yet another significant injury; Paxton underwent an MRI this morning that revealed nothing but nerve irritation, per Bryan Hoch of MLB.com. His removal from the game was merely a precaution and is not expected to affect his availability in the approaching ALDS. The club has faced questions all year about postseason pitching, and an injury to Paxton—the team’s most reliable starter in the second half—would have sent the New York faithful spiraling.
- White Sox pitcher Dylan Cease has been diagnosed with a Grade 1 hamstring strain, according to James Fegan of The Athletic. He was scratched from his schedule start on Thursday, and of course won’t pitch again this season. While the two-to-four week timeline that comes with the injury is of little significance at this time of year, it’s nonetheless good to hear that the promising rookie will be at full health before too long. He’s had some growing pains as a rookie but has shown some encouraging signs, striking out 81 batters in his first 73 innings as a big-leaguer. With 141 1/3 innings between several levels, he’s also amassed his biggest workload as a pro.
- It’s no secret that Orioles pitching has come up short this year, but first-year pitching coach Doug Brocail expected some struggles when he took the job last winter. As he and a new front office regime attempt to build a pitching staff from the ground-up, Brocail offers some insight into the state of the organization in an interview with Dan Connolly of The Athletic (subscription required). There’s a long way to go for the team, but Brocail is seeing marginal improvements with rookie general manager Mike Elias trying to play catch-up after inheriting last year’s MLB-worst roster. With the emergence of John Means and the continued growth of the organization’s analytics department, there are some positive takeaways from his first year on the Baltimore staff.
Latest On Mookie Betts
As the Red Sox season mercifully nears its conclusion, a difficult decision looms on the horizon for the club and whoever it hires to assume the vacant general manager post. With a contract extension looking unlikely for all-world outfielder Mookie Betts, it looks like a “realistic possibility” that he will be traded this offseason, writes Christopher Smith of masslive.com.
With just one year of team control remaining before he could hit free agency, the Red Sox will have to weigh whether to deal Betts now for a haul of controllable players, or ride it out for another year and recoup a draft pick after extending the qualifying offer. It’s worth noting that such a momentous decision will surely be a topic of discussion in GM interviews, though ultimately the decision will likely be made by ownership.
For his part, Betts has given ample reason to believe that he intends to test the open market after the 2020 season, at which point the Red Sox could only receive draft pick compensation should he choose to sign elsewhere. Thus, if the organization wants to retain the most value in exchange for its best asset, trading Betts would be the way to go. Of course, Betts could still re-sign with the Red Sox after testing free agency, but the Red Sox certainly wouldn’t bank on that outcome.
Otherwise, the Red Sox could simply hang on to Betts and pencil him into the leadoff spot for another crack at the postseason. Assuming he leaves at the end of the year, the Sox would only collect a draft pick in this scenario, but if the team wants to maximize its chances of returning to the Fall Classic, Betts needs to be in the lineup. He’s unquestionably been one of the most productive players in baseball over the last few years, ranking second behind only Mike Trout in fWAR since 2016.
But with Red Sox ownership intent on cutting payroll to sneak under the luxury tax, now might be the time to cash in on Betts’s trade value. In his final arbitration season, Betts is a virtual lock to fetch a salary approaching $30MM. Last offseason, he reeled in a $20MM payday that established the benchmark for players in his service class. After another fantastic season, a similar uptick in pay would place him in the neighborhood of $30MM. It would be hard to reconcile such a hefty price for one player with a top-down mandate to shed payroll.
To be sure, there’s considerable money coming off the books with Rick Porcello and Pablo Sandoval‘s contracts expiring (with the potential for more should J.D. Martinez opt out of his deal). However, that will be offset somewhat by extensions for Chris Sale and Xander Bogaerts kicking in next year. Add in pay raises for arbitration-eligible players, and the Red Sox may already be approaching that tax number before any additional spending in the offseason. And with limited options to trim expenditures across the roster, Betts looks like a logical candidate to go.
Certainly, though, the Red Sox won’t force a deal if the price isn’t right. The club will surely insist on a handsome return for its MVP, and the trade market will have some sway in the team’s decision to pull the trigger on a deal. If Boston’s offers are underwhelming, there’s no pressure to trade Betts; keeping him around for another year can only help the team’s chances in 2020.
Interested teams will be wary that Betts may only be a one-year rental, and will therefore be hesitant to surrender promising youngsters who could benefit their club for years to come. It’s a risk, sure, but there are precious few opportunities to add a 26-year-old MVP in the prime of his career, and making such a move instantly boosts any team’s odds.
Steve Pearce Considering Retirement
Hero and MVP of the 2018 World Series Steve Pearce is considering retirement, per Pete Abraham of the Boston Globe.
Last season ended in storybook fashion for the long-time role player as he turned in a historic performance for his favorite team from childhood, the Boston Red Sox. The 36-year-old was acquired from the Blue Jays in June mostly to serve as a right-handed option at first base, but he reached another gear at the biggest time of the year. In five games against the Los Angeles Dodgers, Pearce went 4-12 with a .500 OBP, 3 home runs, and 8 RBIs in earning MVP honors.
As incredible as last season ended, however, this season was an equal disaster. In just 29 games, Pearce turned in a miserable .180/.245/.258 line worth -0.6 bWAR, last appearing at the end of May while suffering from back and knee injuries. Pearce was just one part of the topsy-turvy season in Boston, though his reversal-of-fortune was perhaps the most extreme.
Pearce holds a career line of .254/.332/.440 while playing parts of 13 seasons for the Pirates, Orioles, Astros, Yankees, Rays, Blue Jays, and Red Sox, notably appearing in uniform for all five teams in the AL East. On his potential retirement, Pearce said, “I would have liked to have gone out a little bit different. If this year was a little bit different. But that’s baseball. That’s why it’s the most beautiful game in the world.”
Injury Notes: Paxton, Hale, Hicks, Vlad Jr.
Yankees ace James Paxton exited his final start of the season on Friday after just one inning because of left glute tightness, per MLB.com’s Bryan Hoch. Paxton’s removal was a precautionary measure, and were it not for the looming postseason matchup with the Twins, Paxton likely could have pitched through what he described as “dull soreness.” The rotation is New York’s biggest question mark going into the playoffs, and Paxton is clearly a key piece. He’s 15-6 with a 3.82 ERA/3.87 FIP across 150 2/3 innings for the season, landing fairly close to career marks both in terms of efficiency and durability. Paxton’s status as the likely ALDS game one starter is not at present affected by his early departure on Friday, though he will certainly be monitored closely, and one would think it might affect the amount of leash given him in the ALDS opener. In other injury news heading into Saturday’s action…
- The Yankees PR department announced David Hale‘s reinstatement from the 60-day injured list. Hale, 32, had a strong start to the season going 3-0 with a 2.89 ERA/3.30 FIP across 19 innings. He last pitched on July 26 against the Red Sox, finishing a strong month of July when he posted a 2.63 ERA. Hale has a part in two major storylines of the Yankees season, both as a resident of the overfull trainer’s room, and as one of the many unsung contributors to their 2019 success. Aaron Hicks, meanwhile, was moved to the 60-day injured list. It’s been mostly a lost season for Hicks, who nonetheless contributed 1.2 bWAR in 59 games when healthy via a .235/.325/.443 line with 12 home runs.
- Rookie fan favorite Vladimir Guerrero Jr. was scratched from today’s lineup with right knee soreness, tweets Ben Nicholson-Smith of sportsnet.ca. If Vlad Jr. misses both of the Blue Jays final games, he’ll finish his rookie season with a .272/.339/.433 line across 123 games while notching 15 home runs and 69 RBIs. His 105 wRC+ is not perhaps the world-breaking debut that many expected, but in effort and showmanship, Vlad Jr. more than held his own. His performance at the home run derby will go down as the defining moment of his rookie season, where he showed the national audience more than enough to justify the hype of the past few seasons.
Rays Activate Yandy Diaz
Sunday: As expected, Díaz was indeed activated prior to today’s game.
Saturday: The Rays are set to reinstate infielder Yandy Diaz from the injured list on Sunday, according to Marc Topkin of the Tampa Bay Times. Since Diaz was transferred to the 60-day IL, the Rays will need to make room on the 40-man roster. That corresponding move has yet to be announced.
Diaz appeared in an instructional league game yesterday and made six plate appearances, evidently showing enough improvement to lead to his activation. In Sunday’s season finale, he’ll be limited to DH/pinch-hit duties, per Topkin.
Diaz hasn’t suited up for the Rays since late July, when he landed on the injured list with a left foot contusion. He suffered a setback in his recovery from that injury and was held out of baseball activities for nearly two months as a result of a hairline fracture in his left foot.
With his return, Diaz could factor into postseason play for the Rays, who last night clinched a Wild Card appearance. The 28-year-old could be of particular value in that one-game matchup against the A’s, when lefty Sean Manaea could take the hill. Diaz has done superb work against southpaws all season, slashing .311/.393/.583 when he has a platoon advantage.
Overall, the extended absence of Diaz was a frustrating development for the Rays, who had been enjoying a fine breakout season from Diaz after he was unearthed in an offseason trade with the Indians. Though he only got into 78 games for his new club, he finally showcased the raw power that made him a Statcast darling prior to his arrival in Tampa. After hitting just one home run in his first two big-league seasons, he broke through with 14 round-trippers this season.
With one game to go this year, he’s batting .270/.343/.480 overall. He could share time at the hot corner with Matt Duffy, who has filled in capably for 44 games after Diaz went down. Duffy has fared well against right-handers, making for a logical pairing to platoon with Diaz at third base.
NL Notes: Bumgarner, WGN, Cubs, Phillies
Madison Bumgarner has made his last pitch of the 2019 season – and perhaps his career as a San Francisco Giant. The free-agent-to-be would have been in line to start Sunday’s season finale, but manager Bruce Bochy says they’ll watch the game together from the bench, per Kerry Crowley of the Mercury News. Sunday will be the last game of Bochy’s prodigious career as well, and it will be appropriate to take in the game alongside Bumgarner, with whom he won three world championships. If Bumgarner does move on this offseason, he will finish his career in San Francisco with a 119-92 record and 3.13 ERA/3.32 FIP across 1,846 innings – 8th on the Giants all-time bWAR leaderboard. Still just 30-years-old, Bumgarner wraps up 2019 with a 3.90 ERA/3.91 FIP while eclipsing 200 innings for the seventh time in his career. As the penultimate day of the 2019 season gets under way, let’s check in on a couple other teams from the senior circuit…
- The Cubs say goodbye to WGN this week, the beloved television network known as the home of Cubs content for the last 72 years. The long-awaited Marquee Sports Network launches next year, but the revenue streams won’t provide real kickback for a couple of years, per Paul Sullivan of the Chicago Tribune. The long-promised “wheelbarrow full of money” won’t be arriving at Theo Epstein’s baseball operations department from day one, but neither does Epstein see the new television deal affecting baseball decisions. Said Epstein, “We want to win the World Series. But it’s not because of the TV network. That’s the goal. It’s unrelated. There’s a wall between baseball decisions and anything related to the TV network.”
- Trust is a process, and first-year Phillies pitching coach Chris Young understands that process takes a little longer with suboptimal results, per The Athletic’s Matt Gelb and Meghan Montemurro (subscription required). Young’s job was made all the more difficult when players bristled at the dismissal of his predecessor Rick Kranitz. Young’s analytics-driven philosophy was in lockstep with manager Gabe Kapler, but Philly pitchers are taking longer to buy-in, in part from its perception as an inflexible top-down approach. It was a frustrating season on the whole for Philadelphia’s pitching staff as the team regressed to 2017 levels after taking a big step forward in 2018.
Pirates Pitching Coach On Future After Difficult Season
The Pirates appear ready to roll it back next season under the leadership of President Frank Coonelly, general manager Neal Huntington and manager Clint Hurdle, per Jason Mackey of the Pittsburgh Post-Gazette. Pitching Coach Ray Searage is keeping his feet on the ground for now as he awaits ownership’s decision about his own fate. It stands to reason that Searage could be the fall guy if Hurdle returns after a tough season on the hill (and off) for Pirates pitchers.
Ex-Pirates pitchers, meanwhile, have excelled this season, as Tyler Glasnow, Charlie Morton, and Gerrit Cole can be counted among the league’s best. One could see their success as a testament to the tutelage received in Pittsburgh, as Searage suggests, though if ownership deems the above trio’s development as linked in any way to their departures from Steel City, a change in the coaching staff would seem appropriate.
The Pirates weathered criticism and fisticuffs throughout the year for a strategy of pitching up and in that didn’t always meld with a staff that struggled with location (3.63 walks per nine is the 23rd best mark in the league). And while it’s unnecessary to rehash here some of the obvious off-field complications for Pirates pitchers, the team’s 5.22 ERA is certainly apropos to a conversation about Searage’s future. As of today, they are tied for 26th in the league by ERA – easily the worst of the Clint Hurdle era. A fielding independent mark of 4.77 provides a slightly sunnier look on the Pirates’ year, though even that glass-half-full approach puts them in the bottom half of the MLB.
There was progress made on the offensive end, though Searage likely can’t claim much credit for Steven Brault‘s “breakout” season at the plate The Pirates plan on converting their swingman into a two-way player a la Michael Lorenzen of the Reds. With a .341/.357/.439 mark across 49 plate appearances, you can almost argue Brault is a more polished offensive player than on the hill, where he is 4-6 with a 5.16 ERA/4.77 FIP across 19 starts and 6 relief appearances. The plan for now is for Brault to return to the rotation next season, though how exactly that would mesh with a role as a part-time outfielder is still in the storyboard phase of development.
Padres Notes: Barajas, Lauer, Garcia
Rod Barajas has been a big league manager for just about a week, but the former catcher is ready for a long-term gig, per Kevin Acee of The San Diego Union Tribune. Of course, taking over the final week of the season for his former boss was neither how Barajas expected nor wanted to get his first chance at the big chair. He’s not the likely favorite to take over Andy Green‘s former post full time either, though it seems he’ll get a chance to interview once this nine-game stint is through. With a young team nearing contention, the Padres fancy a calloused hand steering the ship in 2020, which presumes someone other than the would-be rookie skipper. At the same time, he’s popular among the players, and his ability to speak Spanish is a significant plus in San Diego. The connection he’s forged with catching prospect Francisco Mejia should also play in his favor. Barajas managed Mejia last season in Triple-A, and he’s continued as his advocate in 2019 during Mejia’s first significant extended look in the big leagues. A .267/.318/.439 line has Mejia looking again like a long-term possibility behind the dish and a nice feather in the cap of Barajas. Still, plenty of uncertainty looms in San Diego…
- What that uncertainty means for 2019’s Opening Day starter is a renewed fight for his rotation life. Eric Lauer has been a steady contributor this season, but nothing is guaranteed for the lefty moving forward, per MLB.com’s AJ Cassavell. Lauer is 14-17 with a 4.40 ERA/4.35 FIP over 52 starts the last two seasons, but with raised expectations entering 2020, the Padres aren’t contenting themselves with the kind of modest production they’ve received from Lauer. Dinelson Lamet looks like a rotation piece in his return from Tommy John (3.92 FIP, 12.9 K/9), and rookie stud Chris Paddack secured his spot for 2020, but it’s an open audition otherwise. Lauer will lock horns with Garrett Richards, Joey Lucchesi, Cal Quantrill, as well as top prospect MacKenzie Gore and whoever else the Padres add to the field before Spring Training.
- Infielder Greg Garcia knows the drill for teams coming off a losing season. The former waiver claim played Thursday’s game at Petco Park fully aware that he could be on the move again this offseason, per Acee, though it’s been a solid season for the native of nearby El Cajon, California. While providing capable defense at second, shortstop, and third, Garcia put forth a .248/.366/.356 line across 367 plate appearances. That level of on-base ability with the defensive versatility he provides makes Garcia an asset worth rostering, though for San Diego, that may depend on what kind of arbitration raise he would receive on his $910K salary. The 30-year-old could return in a similar role next year, though with Ian Kinsler on hand to back up the presumptive starting infield of Manny Machado, Fernando Tatis Jr., and Luis Urias, it would be fair for Garcia to feel somewhat jittery about his future with the Friars.