Nationals Release George Kontos
Veteran right-handed reliever George Kontos has been released by the Nationals, per an announcement from Paul Braverman of the Fresno Grizzlies PR department (Twitter link). He’d been with the Grizzlies since signing a minor league pact back in late May.
Kontos, 34, has had a tough year in the hitter-friendly Pacific Coast League. It’s worth noting that more than a third of the total runs he’s allowed came between two meltdown appearances, but that doesn’t exactly discount the fact that his bottom-line results haven’t been pretty. In 46 innings with Fresno, he’s posted a 6.07 ERA with 7.2 K/9, 3.5 BB/9, 1.37 HR/9 and a 38.6 percent ground-ball rate.
A veteran of eight MLB seasons, Kontos pitched for four clubs from 2017-18, tallying a 3.68 ERA and an 85-to-27 K/BB ratio in 93 innings of work between the Giants, Pirates, Yankees and Indians. He’s best known for his time as a solid middle reliever/setup piece for the Giants, with whom he won a pair of World Series rings (posting a sub-3.00 ERA in both 2012 and 2014). Kontos logged 309 2/3 innings as a Giant from 2012-17, recording a tidy 3.05 ERA with averages of 7.3 punchouts and 2.6 walks per nine innings pitched along the way.
Anthopoulos On Donaldson, Riley, Braves Prospects
Braves GM Alex Anthopoulos covered a host of topics of interest in a chat with David O’Brien of The Athletic (subscription link). Of particular hot stove relevance was his discussion of third baseman Josh Donaldson.
While he declined to dish on the team’s interest in hammering out a new deal with Donaldson, who’s a pending free agent, Anthopoulos left clear that the door is open to a return. That’s true even with Austin Riley representing a big-league option at the hot corner. Riley earned praise from the GM for his outfield glovework. Offensively, we’ve seen cause for both promise and concern. Anthopoulos says he’ll “be curious” to see how Riley hits after returning from the injured list, while adding that “long term we still feel the exact same about him.”
Per Anthopoulos:
“If our best team is with Austin Riley in the outfield and Josh Donaldson at third base, and that makes sense, we’ll do that. … There’s clearly room for both guys; we can see a team with both guys. Problem is, one guy’s a free agent. And I expect the market for him to be strong because of the year that he’s had and what he’s done.”
But what of the final months before Donaldson formally returns to the open market? Is there any possibility of a late-season extension? Addressing the topic generally, Anthopoulos said “there might be a scenario” where the club engages in contract talks during a season. But that’s not idea, he indicated. Ultimately, there’s really no reason to believe Donaldson won’t become a free agent. After all, that was the point of his decision to take a one-year deal in the first place.
There’s some clear spillover to the Atlanta outfield situation. There’ll be room to add there, with Nick Markakis headed for free agency. That’s all the more true if Riley ends up sliding over to third base. It’s an interesting situation for the Braves, who have two highly regarded young outfielders knocking on the door in Cristian Pache and Drew Waters.
Anthopoulos made clear he’s not planning to head into Spring Training next year with a plan to turn over jobs to the young and unproven duo of Pache and Waters. “We love those guys; we think they’re going to be really good players,” Anthopoulos explains. “We just have no idea when. And you can’t go into a season counting on those guys.”
But that doesn’t answer the question of just how aggressive the Braves will be in pursuing outfield help. Riley’s flexibility gives the team options. Ender Inciarte remains a notable part of the picture. Perhaps Markakis will again be a candidate to return. There’s an argument to be made that the Braves ought to pursue a big bat to put alongside superstar Ronald Acuna Jr.
It’s equally arguable that a placeholding/platoon approach would be more sensible, with resources being utilized instead in other areas. In that case, the concept would be to hold down the fort while Pache and Waters make their case for a promotion. As Anthopoulos puts it, the team can and will “find a way to get them up” once the prospects force the situation.
Can The Red Sox Mount A Late-Season Comeback?
It has been presumed for some time that the World Series-champion Red Sox were sunk in their quest for a repeat. While the club has easily kept its head above water, it has struggled to bag enough victories in a highly stratified American League.
An eight-game losing streak wrapping the trade deadline — at which Boston held pat — sent the club’s chances plummeting. By August 21st, Fangraphs’ playoff odds tracker gave the Sox a meager 1.8% chance of making the postseason.
But here’s the thing about postseason odds charts: they make for useful, rough gauges as to where a team stands at a given moment. But they can’t and don’t reflect all the nuanced factors that can influence performance swings. And the odds are based upon simulations of how the remainder of the season can play out. Thus, they necessarily change as actual results come in, and can change rather significantly in fairly short periods of time.
(The Red Sox suffered a drop of nearly fifty percentage points from July 27th through August 4th. The Mets did nearly the opposite from July 24th through August 10th — only to quickly shed many of the “gains” with a recent skid.)
With just a month of the season remaining, there are less plausible scenarios. But several of them certainly involve the Red Sox continuing to play once the regular season concludes.
After an 8-3 stretch of play — coupled with middling periods from the Rays and Indians — the BoSox have shot back up to a 9.8% chance by reckoning of the Fangraphs computers. Other systems are less optimistic: 538 puts it at 7%, Baseball-Reference at just 3.1%. But these systems are telling us the same essential thing: there’s a chance, and not just in the Lloyd Christmas sense.
The Indians just lost Jose Ramirez and are still missing some key pitchers, as are the Rays. The Athletics seem to be cresting, but who’s to say the rotation can keep outperforming ERA estimators by such a wide margin? (4.02 ERA; 4.87 xFIP; 4.94 SIERA.) Or that the Red Sox’ opposite fortunes won’t suddenly reverse? (5.02 ERA; 4.44 xFIP; 4.41 SIERA.) David Price is slated for a return, with Michael Chavis perhaps not far behind him. Boston relievers have reversed their fortunes over the past month, perhaps portending good things for high-leverage situations.
Gut out a few extra wins, and those postseason odds will keep lurching forward. Gain some momentum, and perhaps the goal will feel — and even actually be — more attainable than the numbers would suggest. This team has been there before, so there’s no questioning the capacity. And it’s arguably the best of the AL Wild Card contenders from a true-talent perspective.
That’s the argument in favor of a stirring comeback, anyway. But what do you think? Do you agree with the computer simulations, or do you believe the Red Sox will mount a successful charge? (Poll link for app users.)
Will the Red Sox make the playoffs?
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No 77% (7,616)
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Yes 23% (2,229)
Total votes: 9,845
AL Notes: Blue Jays, Tigers, Gardenhire, Yanks, C. Frazier
Oft-injured Blue Jays second baseman Devon Travis is unlikely to remain with the team next season, per Gregor Chisholm of the Toronto Star. Travis hasn’t played at all this season (and nor will he) as a result of left knee issues, and his absence has opened the door for rookie Cavan Biggio to take over the keystone. While Travis could stay with the Jays next year as a backup infielder (or they could simply option him to Triple-A Buffalo), Chisholm suggests he’s not a fit to stick around because the team wants a reserve who’s capable of playing shortstop. As of now, Travis – who’s on a $1.93MM salary – has two more years of arbitration control remaining.
- Unlike Travis, odds are “good” that right-hander Matt Shoemaker will be back with the Blue Jays next season, Chisholm reports. It’s possible, though, that Toronto will first non-tender Shoemaker and then attempt to re-up him at a lower cost. Otherwise, the 32-year-old would earn a raise over his current $3.5MM salary in his fourth and final trip through arbitration. The Jays signed Shoemaker in free agency last winter, and the former Angel initially justified the investment with 28 2/3 innings of 1.57 ERA/3.94 FIP pitching with 7.53 K/9 against 2.83 BB/9. Shoemaker’s potential bounce-back year came to an end April 21 when he suffered a torn left ACL.
- Tigers manager Ron Gardenhire has helped oversee their extensive rebuilding effort since last year, and it’s likely he’ll helm the club’s dugout again next season. The soon-to-be 62-year-old Gardenhire’s “in little to no jeopardy” of not returning in 2020 for the final season of his contract, Anthony Fenech of the Detroit Free Press writes. Gardenhire, for his part, seems uninterested in going anywhere else. “That’s to be determined for (general manager) Al Avila, with where they want to go and what they want to do, but I enjoy this and I love this city,” Gardenhire said of his future. The Tigers have stumbled to a miserable 103-158 record under Gardenhire, but it would be unfair to judge him for that. Anyone would’ve been hard-pressed to guide last year’s roster or this season’s team to respectable marks.
- The Yankees will “probably” recall outfielder Clint Frazier from Triple-A Scranton when rosters expand Sunday, manager Aaron Boone said (via George A. King III of the New York Post). The 24-year-old Frazier’s weeks-long stay in the minors has gotten plenty of coverage, in part because he was the subject of numerous trade rumors leading up to the July 31 deadline. However, the Yankees kept the former top prospect, who posted a quality batting line of .283/.330/.513 with 11 home runs in 209 plate appearances before they sent him down in mid-June to make room for a just-acquired Edwin Encarnacion. The Yankees’ wealth of outfield talent, Frazier’s well-documented defensive issues and his remaining minors options have all conspired to strand him in Scranton, for which he has hit a meek .243/.300/.426 with seven HRs over 250 PA.
Pirates Notes: Archer, Polanco, Koehler
The latest on a few injured Pirates, courtesy of Jason Mackey of the Pittsburgh Post-Gazette:
- The season has gone down the drain for the Pirates, whose 56-77 record is among the worst in the majors, but they’re still hoping to see right-hander Chris Archer take the hill again this year. Archer went to the injured list a week ago on account of shoulder inflammation, though he has made good progress since then, director of sports medicine Todd Tomczyk explained Wednesday. Archer still hasn’t thrown a baseball since he landed on the IL, though, so it’s hardly a foregone conclusion that he’ll return to the mound in 2019. Regardless, the Pirates seem likely to exercise Archer’s $9MM club option (in lieu of a $1.75MM buyout) once the offseason arrives. While Archer was a highly regarded starter when he joined the Pirates last summer in a major trade with the Rays, the current campaign has been an injury-limited disaster for the 30-year-old. Archer has given Pittsburgh 119 2/3 innings of 5.19 ERA/5.01 FIP ball this season.
- As with Archer, it’s uncertain whether outfielder Gregory Polanco will suit up for the Bucs again in ’19. Polanco’s shoulder has been a problem for about a year now – he underwent surgery in mid-September of 2018, sat out until late April this season and then went back to the IL in the middle of June. Although Polanco’s rehab in Bradenton, Fla., is going well at the moment, there may not be enough time left in the Double-A or Triple-A seasons for him to play with those affiliates before a potential return to the majors. Indeed, Tomcyzyk admitted that Pittsburgh’s “running up against the clock” with Polanco. The 27-year-old has been a rather valuable piece for the Pirates in the past, especially in 2018, but his shoulder troubles have helped hold him to an ineffective .242/.301/.425 line in 167 plate appearances this season. Next year will be the penultimate guaranteed season of the $35MM extension Polanco signed back in 2016. He’ll earn $8MM in 2020.
- The Pirates have shut righty Tom Koehler down for the year after he suffered a setback in his recovery from shoulder surgery. Koehler underwent the procedure last July as a member of the Dodgers, for whom he didn’t pitch at all in 2018, and has thrown just four innings at the minor league level this season. The 33-year-old signed with the Pirates on a minors pact last winter. Also a former Marlin and Blue Jay, Koehler has recorded a 4.39 ERA/4.49 FIP with 6.93 K/9 and 3.69 BB/9 in 784 1/3 frames in the majors.
Latest On Tommy La Stella
This has turned into another lost season for the Angels, who have slid to 64-70 and sit 13 games behind the second wild-card spot in the American League. Nevertheless, even when a team’s out of contention, it’s always a welcome sight when one of its top contributors is nearing a return from a long-term injury. That’s the case for infielder Tommy La Stella, whose dream season came to a halt July 3 after he suffered a brutal injury – a fractured tibia in his right leg. But La Stella’s now slated to take batting practice on the field for the first time Friday, Rhett Bollinger of MLB.com relays, adding that the 30-year-old is “hopeful” he’ll make it back during the Angels’ Sept. 9-15 homestand.
Before La Stella landed on the IL, he had emerged as one of baseball’s best low-cost pickups of last offseason. The Angels acquired La Stella from the Cubs for a meager return in late November, at which point he had combined to hit a useful but modest .264/.345/.366 with 10 home runs in 947 plate appearances between Chicago and Atlanta. This year’s version of La Stella has been vastly superior to the player who showed up from 2014-18.
Since joining the Angels, the lefty-swinging La Stella has slashed .300/.353/.495 with 16 HRs across 312 trips to the plate, owing in part to a remarkable ability to avoid strikeouts. The first-time All-Star has gone down on strikes just 8.7 percent of the time this season, making him a key reason why the Halos’ offense boasts the game’s second-lowest K rate. While La Stella hasn’t packed a wallop on the many occasions he has made contact (his average exit velocity of 87.9 mph and hard-hit rate rank near the bottom of the league, per Statcast), he has nonetheless mustered a respectable .352 expected weighted on-base average that almost matches his real wOBA of .362.
Along with breaking out at the plate, La Stella has provided the Angels 30-plus appearances at both second and third. And he could again serve as a versatile and affordable part of their roster next season. La Stella’s scheduled to go through arbitration for the final time in the offseason, when he’ll collect a raise on this year’s relatively cheap $1.35MM salary. Barring changes over the winter, La Stella may rejoin David Fletcher to comprise the Angels’ primary options at second and third in 2020.
Minor MLB Transactions: 8/28/19
Here are the latest minor moves from around the game …
- Outfielder Aaron Altherr was outrighted recently by the Mets after he was designated for assignment, per the International League transactions page. Altherr has the requisite service time to reject the assignment in favor of free agency, but doing so would mean forfeiting the remainder of this season’s $1.35MM salary. It’s been a brutal season for Altherr, who has gone just 5-for-61 with five walks through 66 plate appearances between the Phillies, Giants and Mets. As a player with three-plus years of service who’s been removed from the 40-man roster, Altherr will have the right to become a free agent and explore the open market this winter.
- The Blue Jays have released swingman Nick Kingham after he cleared waivers following his own DFA, also per the International League transactions page. Kingham was on the injured list when he was designated for assignment, and injured players cannot be placed on outright waivers. With August trades eliminated, the only possible outcome for Kingham was to be released by the Jays. The former top prospect has tallied 55 2/3 frames between Pittsburgh and Toronto this season but been clobbered for a 7.28 ERA with a 46-to-25 K/BB ratio and 11 home runs allowed in that time.
- Southpaw Adam McCreery was released recently by the Angels, per Baseball America’s most recent transactions report. He had originally been outrighted after being designated for assignment. McCreery is a 26-year-old reliever who has a single MLB appearance under his belt. This year, he owns a 3.63 ERA in 44 2/3 Triple-A innings, with 50 strikeouts against 28 walks. He’s averaged 11.3 K/9 throughout parts of six minor league seasons but has never been able to limit free passes at a sufficient rate.
- Also per Baseball America, the Royals have signed lefty Jake Brentz after he was released by the Pirates. Brentz, 24, is a former 11th-round pick who had spent the past several seasons in the Pittsburgh organization. Bentz has a history of swings and misses along with struggles with free passes. In 50 1/3 total innings in the upper minors this year, including three with his new team, he owns a 4.47 ERA with 9.8 K/9 and 4.6 BB/9.
Red Sox To Activate David Price On Sunday
The Red Sox will activate left-hander David Price from the injured list to start against the Angels on Sunday, Pete Abraham of the Boston Globe tweets. Meanwhile, lefty Brian Johnson will finish the year in Boston’s bullpen, according to Abraham.
Price went to the shelf with a cyst in his wrist back on Aug. 8, which came on the heels of a rough few starts. The 34-year-old owned a 3.16 ERA as of July 16, but the number shot to 4.36 in the handful of outings preceding his IL placement. A significant portion of the damage came in Price’s most recent appearance, in which the rival Yankees clobbered him for seven earned runs on nine hits (including a pair of homers) in 2 2/3 innings.
Recent struggles notwithstanding, the Red Sox will be glad to get back Price, who’s in the fourth season of a seven-year, $217MM investment. For the most part, Price has been a decent contributor this season, evidenced by a 3.63 FIP/3.67 xFIP/3.82 SIERA with 10.77 K/9 and 2.65 BB/9 in 105 1/3 innings. And the rest of the Red Sox’s starting staff isn’t in particularly great shape, which helps explain why the defending champions are 5 1/2 games out of a playoff spot. Injured ace Chris Sale is probably done for the year, former Cy Young winner Rick Porcello has been a letdown, and big-money offseason re-signing Nathan Eovaldi has both underperformed and dealt with significant elbow problems.
Thanks in part to the myriad issues in their rotation, the Red Sox have had to give seven starts to Johnson, who hasn’t produced appealing results during an injury- and illness- shortened campaign. The 28-year-old has logged a 5.09 ERA/5.03 FIP with 5.87 K/9 and 4.3 BB/9 out of Boston’s rotation.
Angels Sign Luiz Gohara
The Angels have signed former Braves left-hander Luiz Gohara to a minor league contract, Roster Roundup reports.
Gohara had been on the open market since the Braves released him Aug. 2, which came shortly after they designated him for assignment. It came as a surprise at the time that Atlanta decided to cut ties with Gohara, who was once a high-ranking prospect with the organization. However, physical problems have undermined the 23-year-old this season. A shoulder issue has prevented Gohara from taking the mound since 2018, and he won’t pitch at all this year as a result of the injury.
Last season was difficult at both the major and minor league levels for Gohara, but he did show positive signs in 2017. Gohara debuted in the majors that year and tossed 29 1/3 innings (five starts) of 4.91 ERA/2.75 FIP ball with 9.51 K/9 and 2.45 BB/9, averaging 96 mph on his fastball in the process. He also amassed 123 2/3 frames of 2.62 ERA pitching and notched 10.7 K/9 with 3.2 BB/9 across three levels in the minors.
Regardless of whether Gohara’s able to return to his old form, it’s worth it from the pitcher-needy Angels’ perspective to take a risk-free flier on him. The out-of-contention club figures to place a great deal of emphasis this offseason on improving its staff heading into 2020, when Gohara might be able to help its cause.
Arguably The Most Underrated Athletic
It seems as if the Athletics’ lineup is loaded with underappreciated hitters. How many really appreciate the excellence of third baseman Matt Chapman, shortstop Marcus Semien, first baseman Matt Olson or center fielder Ramon Laureano – four of the most valuable players in the game? If that group’s not truly getting its due, it’s no surprise outfielder/first baseman Mark Canha is also relatively anonymous on the national stage. After all, he’s a 30-year-old who has changed hands on multiple occasions since the Marlins chose him in the seventh round of the 2010 draft, and he’s just now amid the best season of his career. But what a season this has been for Canha, who’s quietly helping guide the Athletics toward their second consecutive playoff berth.
After joining the Miami organization, Canha found his way to Oakland back in December 2014 after the Rockies chose him in the Rule 5 Draft. The Rox immediately traded the Northern California native to his stomping grounds for right-hander Austin House and cash considerations. Now, it’s safe to say that’ll go down as yet another shrewd move in a career full of them for A’s executive vice president Billy Beane. House never pitched in the majors, while Canha emerged as a useful part-timer for the A’s even before his breakout this season.
The right-handed Canha debuted in the bigs in 2015, the season following his trade to Oakland, and immediately became a solid producer for the club. By measure of wRC+, Canha was an above-average hitter in two of four seasons from 2015-18. He totaled 2.0 fWAR in 411 plate appearances just a year ago on the strength of what was then a personal-best line of .249/.328/.449 (113 wRC+) with 17 home runs. Valuable contributions, to be sure, but Canha has taken it to another level this year and helped the A’s to yet another contending season. His output has been especially important for a team that has been forced to overcome long-term injuries to fellow outfielders Laureano and Stephen Piscotty.
As marvelous as Chapman, Semien, Olson and Laureano have been this year, no Athletic has been stronger at the plate than Canha. His whopping 149 wRC+ easily outdoes the rest of his teammates’, and ranks 11th in the league among those with 300 or more plate appearances. Some of the names in Canha’s company include Fernando Tatis Jr., Pete Alonso and Carlos Santana. Not bad for someone whom the majority of baseball fans have probably never heard of.
But what’s behind Canha’s prodigious .278/.392/.550 line and his 23 home runs in 375 trips to the plate? A massive increase in walks is the most obvious source. Canha entered the season with a lifetime walk rate of 6.6 percent in 1,127 PA. The number has skyrocketed to 13.3 this year. He’s swinging at far fewer pitches than before, especially outside the strike zone, which has led to more free passes.
Walk uptick aside, it’s not as easy to find reasons for Canha’s sudden outburst. Compared to last season, he’s hitting fewer line drives, more groundballs, more infield flies and, per FanGraphs, making less hard contact and more soft contact. All of that should lead to less power, yet Canha’s ISO (.272) is 72 points above last year’s figure and 88 points better than the mark he entered 2019 sporting. It helps, of course, that Canha has gone to left field more. He came into the year with a pull percentage of 44.3, which has leapt to 53.7 – a number that ranks sixth in the majors.
Canha’s also capable of doing damage against both right- and left-handed pitchers, but he hasn’t necessarily wowed Statcast when he has made contact this season. His average exit velocity (88.7 mph) only ranks in the league’s 42nd percentile, while his hard-hit rate sits in the 53rd range. Canha has posted a .393 weighted on-base average that’s among the best in the game and easily trumps his .356 expected wOBA. However, the latter figure still falls into the game’s 77th percentile.
While Canha’s offense has been his calling card this year, he has also helped the A’s cause on defense, having amassed double-digit appearances at all three outfield spots and at first base. The overwhelming majority of Canha’s work has come in the outfield, where he has used his above-average speed to combine for 4 Outs Above Average, a pair of Defensive Runs Saved and a 0.6 Ultimate Zone Rating. The entire package has been worth 3.7 bWAR and 3.1 fWAR, all for a salary of just over $2MM. Canha has been one of the most cost-efficient players in the game this season, then, and that’s all the more crucial for low-budget Oakland. With another two years of arbitration eligibility remaining, Canha could continue as one of the club’s premier (and perhaps most underrated) players for at least a little while longer.
Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.