AL Notes: Dunning, Andrus, Norris
White Sox righty Dane Dunning recently discussed his Tommy John rehab work with MLB.com’s Scott Merkin. The 24-year-old has begun light throwing, but that’s just the start of a lengthy rebuilding process. He’s hoping to be ready for game action by early June, which would be about 15 months after his procedure. It is certainly possible that the highly regarded hurler could have an impact in the majors as soon as 2020, though odds are that he’ll spend more time regaining his footing in the upper minors. Dunning’s sterling 2018 showing was cut short by forearm issues that ultimately ended in the operating room. But he has already shown he can thrive at the Double-A level. When he is able to make it back, Dunning says he hopes to have an even “stronger foundation” to work from. He says he’s stronger, more aware of how to care for his body, and better prepared “to maintain a healthier balance through the season.”
More from the American League …
- With the Rangers continuing a tricky roster balancing act, the play of shortstop Elvis Andrus remains a key factor. Evan Grant of the Dallas Morning News examines the 31-year-old’s status as the 2019 campaign winds to a close. The organization can count on his three-year, $43MM future contract obligations remaining on the books, as Andrus has little reason to exercise his opt-out clause after an underwhelming season. While it’s a manageable-enough sum of money, it’d look a whole lot more palatable if Andrus was hitting near the league-average rate and performing better in the field. Instead, he has hovered at about twenty percent below average in productivity with the bat while showing inconsistency with his glove.
- Tigers southpaw Daniel Norris has been a bright spot in a dismal season in Detroit, Chris McCosky of the Detroit News writes. Norris is being handled with care down the stretch since he was so limited last season, which reflects the fact that the organization is invested in the 26-year-old’s future. To be sure, it’s not as if Norris has dominated. He has turned in stronger results of late but only owns a 4.70 ERA in 126 1/3 frames to date. As McCosky explains in detail, though, Norris has made some strides that have created a sense of optimism. The club will owe him a raise on his $1.275MM arbitration salary.
August Acquisition Period Ends On Saturday
We have previously examined the limited means by which teams can add players during the month of August. The rules remain the same when the calendar flips to September, except that newly acquired players can no longer participate in the postseason.
If teams want to add a postseason-eligible player, they’ll have to do so on or before midnight eastern time this coming Saturday. The end-of-August rush won’t be nearly as exciting as it has been in recent years, since there are no more August trades of MLB contracts, but it could still force some action. Teams contemplating whether to expose veteran players to waivers will face a decision point, knowing that those players won’t hold as much appeal if they’re not eligible for the postseason with a new organization.
There’s also still some possibility for surprise opportunities. Most teams placing claims on veterans will be doing so with a focus on immediate needs. But some non-contenders may look at controllable assets. And it’s even conceivable that some interesting players will become available if a contender or two decides to free a roster spot and/or shed excess salary to facilitate another acquisition.
Which players might be candidates to change hands? We’ve also recently listed many such possibilities. Since we compiled that list, several players have indeed hit the wire and ended up being claimed. That includes Billy Hamilton (Braves from Royals), Cory Gearrin (Yankees from Mariners), and Jared Hughes (Phillies from Reds). Others (Adeiny Hechavarria, Chris Iannetta, Jhoulys Chacin) have cleared waivers and hit the open market. And there are a few still-pending waiver-claim candidates, including Nick Martini (Athletics) and Aaron Altherr (Mets).
So … what happens if a player is placed on waivers and one or more contenders have interest? They’ll have to decide whether to place a claim, which will mean taking over the remainder of the contract obligations, or whether to wait and hope the player clears waivers and decides to sign with them as a free agent. If multiple teams place claims on the same player, the commissioner’s office will assign the claim based upon its rules. Claims are processed two days after waivers are sought, at 1 pm eastern time, meaning we could see a bit of a Thursday rush to make players available by Saturday.
The waiver priority system is quite simple: it’s based upon winning percentage. The lower team always has dibs. While the old rules looked first to the league (National or American) of the team seeking waivers, league status now functions only as a tiebreaker if two clubs with the same record each make a claim.
Priority shifts with any move in the standings, so there can and will still be some shuffling. But as of today, this is the order of waiver priority that will govern. (And yes, this also constitutes a current look at the reverse standings for purposes of determining draft order.)
- Tigers (39-89)
- Orioles (43-88)
- Royals (46-86)
- Marlins (47-83)
- Blue Jays (53-80)
- Pirates (55-76)
- Mariners (56-76)
- Rockies (59-73)
- White Sox (60-70)
- Padres & Reds (61-69) (tie)
- Angels (63-70)
- Rangers (64-68)
- Giants (65-66)
- Diamondbacks (66-66)
- Brewers (67-64)
- Mets (67-63)
- Phillies (68-62)
- Cubs (69-61)
- Red Sox (70-62)
- Cardinals (72-58)
- Nationals (73-57)
- Rays (76-56)
- Athletics (75-55)
- Indians (76-55)
- Braves (80-53)
- Twins (79-51)
- Astros (85-47)
- Dodgers & Yankees (86-47) (tie)
Orioles Mulling September Promotions
With nothing on the line in terms of results, the Orioles are looking firmly to the future. But that doesn’t mean it’s easy for the club to simply bring up a wave of prospects in September.
GM Mike Elias explains to Jon Meoli of the Baltimore Sun that the team is indeed planning to start bringing in fresh faces. “We will start to see a lot of players from our quote-unquote ‘prospect list’ on the big league team here in the next month, and early next season,” he says.
But that doesn’t mean the roster situation is straightforward. Even for “the guys that are on the roster already,” says Elias, “it would be inaccurate to say that doesn’t matter, because when you add somebody to the roster, you typically have to take somebody off. That’s a big decision.” While September’s expanded active roster will help, there’ll still be tough 40-man calls to be made.
Beyond the question of maintaining control rights, the club simply needs to fill innings. While some of the players currently holding down active roster spots may well end up being cut loose in the offseason, they’re needed now to avoid over-taxing or otherwise harming the development of young hurlers.
Plus, there are developmental and health considerations to account for. Take Austin Hays, whose own late-2017 promotion serves as something of a cautionary tale. As Meoli further explores, the club has seen some signs of a rebound from the 24-year-old, though it’s still not clear that he’d benefit from an extension of his season after working through health problems.
Elias opened the door in particular to calling up players who are due to occupy 40-man spots in the offseason to come, noting that the organization has “several guys who are amongst our top prospects who will need to be protected from the Rule 5 draft this year.” Such players can be added now in order to get a taste of the majors, though that means giving them service time and perhaps forcing some early decisions on other players.
One such player is intriguing first base/outfield prospect Ryan Mountcastle. As Meoli notes, Mountcastle has shown well this year but also still has some areas to work on at Triple-A. The 22-year-old’s .308/.340/.528 slash line is outwardly impressive, but it’s just 16% above league average (116 wRC+) in the hitter-friendly International League. With a meager 4.2% walk rate, Mountcastle has been dependent upon an unsustainable .363 batting average on balls in play for his productivity. He’s also still working to land on a defensive home.
That’s certainly not to say that there isn’t any promise. The former first-rounder has long been viewed as a talented player and there’s every reason for the O’s to give him a full shot at the big leagues in the near future. Much the same holds for Hays. Trouble is, the club is already giving showcases to Anthony Santander and DJ Stewart. And it could stand to give further opportunities to Cedric Mullins and Dwight Smith Jr. Ultimately, there are only so many plate appearances to go around.
The bottom line is that the roster finagling is more complicated for the rebuilding Baltimore organization than might be anticipated at first glance. The club can and will continue to provide chances to interesting players, but it’ll already be forced to make some committing choices in the coming weeks.
Latest On Dustin Pedroia
Rehabbing Red Sox second baseman Dustin Pedroia seems to be in good spirits after his latest knee procedure. As Rob Bradford of WEEI.com reports, the veteran reports that “things are going really good compared to where I was before the surgery.”
It’s only two weeks out, but that seems generally to be a promising development for a player whose future remains quite uncertain. As Bradford notes, it’s still not clear just how Pedroia will proceed with rehab work — if he does so at all — after several prior attempts at a return have been stymied.
Pedroia, who recently turned 36, is owed $25MM over the next two seasons. While the Boston organization would no doubt welcome a contribution from the long-time star, it’s hard to imagine the club will rely upon a return as it compiles a plan for the offseason.
Since undergoing season-ending surgery in 2017, Pedroia has appeared in just nine MLB contests. But he was still in good form prior to the onset of the physical ailments. From 2015 through 2017, he compiled a .304/.369/.430 batting line in 1,586 plate appearances.
Regardless of how Pedroia proceeds, it’ll be interesting to see how the Red Sox handle the second base position this winter. Brock Holt and Michael Chavis have spent much of the time there in 2019, but the former is a free agent and the latter is arguably better-suited to playing first base.
Brodie Van Wagenen Discusses Mets Roster
With just over a month left in the campaign, GM Brodie Van Wagenen took stock of his club in a conversation with Jon Heyman and Josh Lewin on the Big Time Baseball podcast. (Audio link.) We’ll cover a few highlights here.
Van Wagenen wasn’t ready to declare victory, as there’s work left to be done to get into the postseason. But he did call it “very exciting and rewarding” to see the club’s mid-season turnaround. “Most importantly,” he said, “we’re playing meaningful games here in August and hopefully September.”
There aren’t many avenues available to improving the club from the outside at this point, but Van Wagenen suggested he’s bullish on the potential for impact from within. Brandon Nimmo, Robinson Cano, and perhaps even Jed Lowrie could return late. As the Mets GM puts it, “we’re getting back guys that we envisioned being core members of our starting lineup.” Notably, Cano is said to have “already resumed baseball activities to a pretty high degree of workload.”
Asked about how the organization was able to revive itself after a long skid earlier this season, Van Wagenen pointed back. “A lot of it … is related to what we tried to do in the offseason,” he said. The rotation is finally firing on all cylinders, while the bullpen has improved and the club has received contributions from some recent acquisitions (he cited Wilson Ramos and J.D. Davis at points in the interview).
Rookie sensation Pete Alonso has, of course, been an immense part of the success. He was “a key part of our offseason” plan, says Van Wagenen, who explains that the club “gave him a clear runway” in hopes of just this sort of breakout.
Likewise, utilityman Jeff McNeil is now a core cog after an offseason of uncertainty. Van Wagenen says that “we really never wanted to lose or give up” McNeil, even after pushing him off of second base by acquiring Cano. The club “never said yes” to any packages involving McNeil in talks on Cano, says Van Wagenen. The GM added, with respect to some other high-profile trade pursuits (e.g., J.T. Realmuto): “Some of those reports are more about which teams liked our players, and which players were of high priority to them.”
Health Notes: Lopez, Gott, Indians, McKay, Yankees
Marlins righty Pablo Lopez returned today from the 10-day injured list. The 23-year-old had been out since June with shoulder problems, so it’s good to see he was able to get back up to speed before the end of the season. Lopez wasn’t at his best, allowing four earned in five innings, but averaged 94.1 mph with his fastball.
Here are some more health notes from around the game …
- The Giants are sending reliever Trevor Gott in for a closer look after he experienced tightness in his right forearm tonight, as John Shea of the San Francisco Chronicle was among those to cover on Twitter. That’s not the news anyone wanted at the end of an enormously successful season for the young reliever, who has been among the nicest surprises in San Francisco. At this point, there’s nothing to be done but wait and hope that there isn’t a significant underlying problem.
- There are a bevy of updates on the health front for the Indians, as MLB.com’s Mandy Bell covers on Twitter. In particular, the club has a big slate of rehabbing hurlers appearing over the next few days. Danny Salazar threw a frame today at Double-A without incident. Jefry Rodriguez is slated to appear with the club’s top affiliate tomorrow, with fellow starter Carlos Carrasco and reliever Dan Otero scheduled to throw in game action on Wednesday. Meanwhile, long-absent outfielder Bradley Zimmer has reached the Triple-A level and seems likely to be an option in the majors again soon.
- Prized young Rays hurler Brendan McKay, optioned down after a rough recent start, has hit the injured list at Triple-A, as MLB.com’s Juan Toribio was among those to tweet. He’s said to be dealing with shoulder fatigue, which sounds worrisome but doesn’t appear to be cause for any concern. The expectation is that he won’t miss more than a week of action, which means he ought to be ready to help the Rays again soon — if and when he’s needed.
- As usual, there’s a lengthy list of Yankees injury updates to touch upon. MLB.com’s Bryan Hoch has the latest (all links to Twitter account). Key righties Luis Severino and Dellin Betances are just one step removed from possible rehab outings, which puts them back on the map for activation down the stretch — and potential postseason availability. The situation is less certain for outfielder Giancarlo Stanton, who “could take on-field batting practice Tuesday for the first time” since going down with a PCL strain about two months ago. And the club indicates it’s possible that southpaw Jordan Montgomery will be ready to throw in the majors before the end of the regular season. He’s slated to continue his rehab work at Double-A. As for shortstop Didi Gregorius, he’s bouncing back quickly after being hit by a pitch. He could be back in the lineup in short order.
NL Central Notes: Moose, Zobrist, Estrada, Cards
The Brewers dropped a big contest but escaped an injury scare tonight, as MLB.com’s Adam McCalvy was among those to cover on Twitter. Infielder Mike Moustakas departed after being hit on the wrist while trying to make a play in the field. Fortunately, x-rays after the game were negative. Though he’s expected to take at least one day off, it seems Moustakas has avoided serious injury. That’s good news for a Milwaukee team that’s struggling to keep pace with the two leaders in the NL Central race.
About those two front-runners …
- It seems the expectation remains that the Cubs will bring Ben Zobrist onto the active roster once rosters expand on September 1st, per Paul Sullivan of the Chicago Tribune. That’s still far from official, and Sullivan notes that the team still likely wants to give the veteran more reps before activating him. It remains a mystery just how this unusual situation will play out. The 38-year-old Zobrist is a treasured presence in the dugout but wasn’t in top form before taking personal leave earlier this year. Through a dozen rehab games — spread out to enable him stretches of time to be with his children — Zobrist is hitting .189/.333/.405.
- Cubs prospect Jeremiah Estrada announced today that he underwent Tommy John surgery (h/t Eric Longenhagen of Fangraphs, via Twitter). The young righty had been in notable position on the Chicago prospect chart, in the evaluation of the Fangraphs prospect team. A recent over-slot sixth-rounder, Estrada missed all of 2018 and only threw 10 2/3 innings this year before going under the knife. It’s unlikely he’ll pitch competitively in the 2020 season, though there’s still plenty of time for the twenty-year-old to blossom.
- Derrick Goold of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch held an interesting chat with Cardinals owner Bill DeWitt Jr. that’s well worth a full read for fans of the club. Pressed on the club’s decisionmaking after three-straight seasons without a postseason appearance, DeWitt did not cede any ground. He rejected any view that the club went cheap this summer, saying the organization remains among the higher-payroll outfits in the league. As for the current front-office leadership group, DeWitt did not seem inclined at all to consider significant change in leadership. “There is always accountability,” he said. “But keep in mind, we’ve had a pretty nice run of success under the current regime with 11 consecutive winning seasons, and when we have missed the playoffs it has been by a very small number of games.” As things stand in the 2019 race, the Cards have a strong chance of breaking their string of playoff absences. But the pressure will increase significantly if that doesn’t come to pass.
Rockies To Promote Rico Garcia
Faced with increasing rotation needs, the Rockies are slated to promote prospect Rico Garcia, according to MLB.com’s William Boor (via Twitter). Corresponding roster moves aren’t yet known; Garcia will require a 40-man spot.
Just a 30th-round pick in the 2016 draft, Garcia has steadily increased his profile. He has thoroughly dominated the Double-A level, turning in a sparkling 2.07 ERA with 9.9 K/9 and 2.9 BB/9 in 135 frames over 24 starts split about evenly between 2018 and 2019.
Garcia has run into some long balls since moving up to Triple-A, however. He owns an ugly 7.16 ERA with 7.3 K/9, 3.9 BB/9, and 2.1 HR/9 in 55 1/3 innings this year at the highest level of the minors.
Before his recent rough stretch, Garcia had earned placement in top-thirty prospect lists produced by MLB.com and Baseball America. He also warranted a mention from the Fangraphs prospect team, though the assessment there was that his limited secondary repertoire foretold a future in the bullpen.
The Rockies will evidently give Garcia a shot to show he can stick in the rotation before considering him for a relief job. But this promotion may be as much about immediate need as it is a desire to give a showcase to a promising young hurler. Garcia would have commanded a slot on the 40-man this fall regardless, in order to protect him from the Rule 5 draft.
Phillies Notes: Depth, Bruce, Neshek, Ramos, Franco
The Phillies made a variety of notable offseason splashes, adding significant talent in several areas of the roster. While it might have been hoped that other players would thrive in reduced roles, that simply hasn’t been the case. As Matt Gelb writes for The Athletic (subscription link), the Philadelphia bench has been abysmal this year. In particular, the reserves have lagged the entire rest of the National League in overall batting output. As we explored recently, the bullpen has also been a problem area. It’s easy to look back and blame the front office for failing to add additional roster pieces last winter and/or during the summer trade period, it’s fair also to note that a variety of injuries, failures of young players to make strides, and unforeseen circumstances (in particular, Odubel Herrera‘s suspension) have strained the roster.
If the Philadelphia org is to make its way into the postseason, it’ll need to squeeze value out of every corner of the 40-man. Here’s the latest on a few potentially key pieces:
- Outfielder Jay Bruce appears likely to return at some point this season, though it’s not clear whether he’ll be able to take the field. The veteran slugger is launching a minor-league rehab stint but won’t throw, as Scott Lauber of the Philadelphia Inquirer was among those to cover (Twitter link). Bruce has been sidelined with a flexor strain. Fortunately, the Phils also picked up Corey Dickerson in advance of the deadline. Both of those lefty hitters have performed at approximately league-average rates since landing in Philadelphia. Bruce remains under contract with the Phils for 2020, though the Mariners are responsible for most of the tab.
- The Phillies’ veteran relief arms have not performed to expectations thus far in 2019. Now, Pat Neshek may join David Robertson and Tommy Hunter with a season-ending procedure. As the Inquirer’s Matt Breen tweets, Neshek’s injured hamstring may require surgery or a platelet-rich plasma injection. Both of those invasive approaches would put him on ice for the remainder of the campaign. Soon to turn 39, Neshek can be retained next season with a $7MM club option, but it seems quite likely he’ll instead be paid a $750K buyout.
- Righty Edubray Ramos may be a likelier late-season contributor, but he’ll have to avoid any complications as he works to return from a shoulder problem. The 26-year-old is launching a rehab assignment, per a club announcement, which puts him on track to make it back for at least a few weeks. Ramos was a big contributor in 2018, when he worked to a 2.32 ERA over 42 2/3 innings, but he has not repeated that showing in 2019. Through 14 frames this season, he has coughed up eight earned runs on 18 hits (four homers) with a 9:5 K/BB ratio.
- With those bench troubles in the backdrop, there were some questions about the club’s recent decision to send down Maikel Franco instead of Sean Rodriguez. As Lauber reports, the organization’s goal was to preserve versatility by keeping the multi-positional Rodriguez. (I’d add that the team also would have had to part with Rodriguez, since he can’t be optioned.) Skipper Gabe Kapler also emphasized that the aging utilityman holds an advantage over the younger Franco in his track record of pinch-hitting against left-handed pitchers. In any event, it seems fair to presume that Franco will be back as soon as the minimum ten-day option period is met. But as Lauber notes, it’s increasingly difficult to imagine him as part of the organization’s plans for 2020 and beyond.
Angels Outright Wilfredo Tovar
The Angels have outrighted infielder Wilfredo Tovar, per a team announcement. He was recently designated for assignment.
Tovar, 28, had briefly appeared in the bigs earlier in his career but had just nine games under his belt when called upon earlier this season by the Halos. He ended up appearing in 31 games with the Los Angeles organization, all at the shortstop position.
Unfortunately, the results just weren’t there. Tovar slashed just .193/.239/.253 in 88 plate appearances. Through nearly two thousand career trips to the dish at the Triple-A level, the defensive specialist owns a .277/.324/.367 batting line.