Cubs Have Interest In Jarrod Dyson, Eric Sogard
The Cubs have interest in D-backs outfielder Jarrod Dyson and have been “gathering information” on Blue Jays infielder Eric Sogard, according to Patrick Mooney, Sahadev Sharma and Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic. Yesterday, Chris McCosky of the Detroit News reported Chicago’s interest in outfielder Nicholas Castellanos, and today’s report from Mooney, Sharma and Rosenthal doubles down on that interest while also acknowledging that Castellanos’ remaining salary could make such a move difficult to piece together.
Chicago hopes to land a veteran hitter with quality contact skills, per The Athletic, and both Dyson and Sogard would fit that bill. Dyson is hitting .254/.335/.369 with six homers and 21 steals on the season. His strikeout rate is sitting at 19 percent, which is elevated quite a bit from the 13.3 percent clip he notched across the past three seasons but is still lower than the league average (22.2 percent among non-pitchers). Sogard, meanwhile, is batting .305/.369/.491 with 10 home runs, six steals and a 14.1 percent strikeout rate (career 13.3 percent).
Adding Dyson, 34, to the fray would give the Cubs an excellent defensive outfielder who can handle all three positions. His presence would surely push struggling Albert Almora Jr. out of the lineup against right-handed opponents. Dyson’s career platoon numbers are pronounced, and his left-handed bat makes him a natural pairing with Almora. The 25-year-old Almora has been uncharacteristically awful against lefties in 2019 but is still a career .286/.335/.420 hitter against them. Dyson owns a lifetime .257/.324/.360 line against right-handers.
Dyson is earning a reasonable $3.5MM in 2019 and is still owed about $1.32MM of that sum between now and season’s end. Contrast that with the $3.75MM remaining on Castellanos’ $9.95MM salary, and he’s not only the better defender of the two but the more affordable. Dyson can’t match Castellanos’ bat, though, and the Diamondbacks aren’t the slam-dunk sellers that the Tigers are known to be. It’s certainly possible that Arizona could deal Dyson and other short-term pieces, but at 50-50 through 100 games, the Snakes likely haven’t determined how they’ll proceed over the next nine days. As a pending free agent, Dyson could be moved even as the D-backs look to simultaneously add longer-term parts who can help in 2020 and beyond.
Sogard, 33, seems a near-lock to be traded so long as there’s sufficient interest. His power surge and general offensive production are largely out of the blue — Sogard was released by the Brewers in 2018 and signed a minor league deal in Toronto this winter — but his strong output has likely positioned as a piece the Jays can flip. As a versatile defender capable of handling second base, shortstop, third base and the outfield corners, Sogard could give the Cubs a sort of Ben Zobrist-lite skill set at a time when the organization still isn’t sure when (or if) Zobrist will return. Sogard’s numbers at second are down this season, but he has a long track record of plus defense there. And after inking a minor league pact in the offseason, he’s assuredly an affordable option for the Cubs or any other interested team.
Twins To Select Cody Stashak
The Twins will select the contract of right-hander Cody Stashak from Triple-A Rochester prior to tonight’s series opener against the Yankees, per La Velle E. Neal III of the Minneapolis Star Tribune. Minnesota has four open spots following a recent spate of DFAs in the bullpen; each of Mike Morin, Matt Magill and Adalberto Mejia have been designated for assignment and landed with a new club in the past week. Stashak will take the 25-man roster spot of righty Zack Littell, who was optioned to Rochester following yesterday’s game.
Stashak, who turned 25 last month, was Minnesota’s 13th-round pick back in 2015 and will make his MLB debut the first time he sets foot on the mound. He didn’t enter the season considered to be among the Twins’ top echelon of prospects even after a strong showing in Double-A last season (2.75 ERA, 11.2 K/9, 2.1 BB/9). Stashak posted even better K/BB numbers in Double-A this season before moving up to Triple-A, where he’s pitched to a 1.61 ERA with 12.5 K/9, 1.6 BB/9, 0.4 HR/9 and a 38.5 percent ground-ball rate in 22 1/3 innings of work.
The bullpen has been an ongoing problem for Minnesota, particularly in the past few weeks (hence the considerable turnover). While Twins relievers improbably rank 13th in each of ERA (4.36), FIP (4.27) and xFIP (4.41) as a collective unit, their relief corps has struggled to find consistency beyond closer Taylor Rogers and rookie Ryne Harper. The Twins are widely expected to add at least one veteran arm to the mix between now and next week’s trade deadline, but for the time being they’ll once again dip into their farm to provide some depth while waiting for a still-stagnant trade market to develop.
Latest On Max Scherzer
TODAY: Nationals GM Mike Rizzo told reporters (including Jesse Dougherty of the Washington Post) that he is “reasonably confident” Scherzer will come off the injured list this week. As Dougherty notes, this projection carries some extra weight coming from Rizzo, who “is usually resistant to putting even loose timelines on injuries.”
FRIDAY: The Nats’ mid-season revival has been driven by exceptional starting pitching — particularly from the ever-dependable Max Scherzer. His unholy tear through the rest of the league was halted only by an unfortunate back issue that has cropped up, forcing a recent injured-list placement.
Scherzer provided an update today to reporters including Mark Zuckerman of MASNsports.com (via Twitter). What had been believed to be a mid-back strain is in fact an inflamed bursa sac in his back/shoulder area (formally, “scapulothoracic bursitis”). He’s throwing off flat ground while waiting for a cortisone shot to take effect.
It’s clear at this point that Scherzer will not pitch before the weekend is out. But he suggests that he ought to be ready to go in relatively short order thereafter. It’ll all depend upon the efficacy and speed of the treatment. Much as the Nats would love to have him back on the bump right away, they’ll need to be cautious of avoiding a larger problem.
It’s more or less impossible to overstate just how good Scherzer has been of late. Since the start of June, he has made seven starts, over which he has allowed just five earned runs on 29 hits in 52 innings. Scherzer has compiled an absurd 79:6 K/BB ratio in that span.
Even if he never threw another pitch in D.C., Scherzer’s blockbuster free agent contract would go down as a huge success. He has already thrown over one thousand innings of 2.65 ERA ball for the Nats, racking up over thirty wins above replacement in less than five full seasons. That he remains an outstanding pitcher with appealing (albeit not inexpensive) remaining guaranteed seasons is testimony to how unusually well that deal has turned out for the team.
As talented and driven as Scherzer is, no small portion of his value is connected to his ability to stay in good health. That has allowed him not only to fill up innings, but to do so at top speed. If the Nats are to chase down the Braves, or otherwise make noise in the postseason by entering through the Wild Card, they’ll need their ace in all his furious glory.
It goes without saying that Scherzer is irreplaceable. But the Nats may need to find another rotation piece over the next twelve days, particularly if there’s any concern that they may need to go a stretch without Scherzer. At present, Austin Voth and Erick Fedde account for the fifth rotation spot. Relying on those hurlers, with scant 40-man depth otherwise (Kyle McGowin, Joe Ross), would be dangerous. There’s no indication that Jeremy Hellickson is going to be an option at any point in the near future.
We already know the Nats will be looking for bullpen arms. But it’ll be interesting to see whether and how they approach the starting pitching market. Perhaps a swingman type would make sense as a partial hedge against a rotation need, without putting too many resources into a spot that may not need to be fully addressed.
Blue Jays Notes: Hudson, Red Sox, Sogard, Pompey
Daniel Hudson‘s strong season is drawing trade attention from the Red Sox and multiple other teams, MLB.com’s Jon Paul Morosi reports (Twitter link). The Blue Jays signed Hudson to a one-year, $1.5MM contract over the offseason, and the 32-year-old is on pace to deliver his best season as a relief pitcher, with a 2.72 ERA, 8.8 K/9, and 2.00 K/BB rate over 43 innings. The Red Sox are known to be looking at the high end of the bullpen market, though it isn’t surprising that they would also be seeking out pitchers like Hudson, who wouldn’t cost nearly as much in the way of prospects.
Hudson’s performance comes with some red flags, however, as ERA predictors (4.46 FIP, 5.51 xFIP, 4.67 SIERA) hint that Hudson is due for some major regression, and he is allowing a lot of hard contact — 40% of Hudson’s balls in play are hard-hit. On the plus side, Hudson’s fastball velocity and spin rate both rank in the 89th percentile or better of all qualified pitchers, so a lot of that hard contact is going for naught (or is being converted into relatively harmless fly balls, as his 47.5% fly ball rate is well above his 39.2% career average).
Here’s more out of Toronto….
- In another tweet from Morosi, Eric Sogard is getting some looks from teams in search of a utilityman, especially clubs turned off by the Royals’ “crazy” asking price on Whit Merrifield. Sogard is another unheralded offseason signing who has become a big contributor for the Jays, with a .305/.369/.491 slash line (128 wRC+) and 10 homers over 304 plate appearances. MLBTR’s Jeff Todd recently explored how Sogard’s unexpected power surge has been something of a mirage, though Sogard’s solid contact skills and defensive versatility make him an asset even if his bat cools off. He has worked mostly as a second baseman this year, though also with time at third base, shortstop, and both corner outfield positions.
- The Blue Jays are facing a decision about Dalton Pompey, Sportsnet.ca’s Arden Zwelling writes, as Pompey’s 20-day injury rehab assignment is up on Monday. Since Pompey is out of options, the Jays have to either call the outfielder up to the majors, or designate him for assignment. It isn’t out of the question that Pompey could come through DFA limbo without being claimed, Zwelling notes, as other teams might also not want to spend a 25-man roster spot on his services. Once a consensus top-50 prospect prior to the 2015 season, Pompey has fallen off the radar after several injury-plagued years, including multiple concussions. He only returned to action in early July after suffering another concussion during Spring Training.
Minor MLB Transactions: 7/21/19
The latest minor moves from around baseball…
- The Blue Jays outrighted Nick Kingham to Triple-A after the right-handed cleared waivers, according to a team announcement. Kingham was acquired from the Pirates in mid-June, and he posted a 3.50 ERA over 18 relief innings for Toronto before being designated for assignment earlier this week. Formerly a top-100 prospect during his time in Pittsburgh’s farm system, Kingham has only a 6.23 ERA over 128 2/3 career frames at the big league level.
Red Sox Interested In Ken Giles, Kirby Yates
While Nathan Eovaldi has been slated to become Boston’s closer, the Red Sox continue to monitor the closer market, with MLB.com’s Jon Paul Morosi (via Twitter) reporting that the Sox have “active interest” in the Blue Jays’ Ken Giles and the Padres’ Kirby Yates.
The bullpen has been seen as a longstanding problem for the Sox dating back to the offseason, when the team seemed content to let Craig Kimbrel leave in free agency and then more or less stand pat with its relief options. That strategy has resulted in some pretty inconsistent results from the Red Sox pen this season, with Eovaldi’s recent role change seen as a two birds-with-one stone idea that would both help preserve Eovaldi’s elbow and get him back on a mound quicker, and also address Boston’s need for a stable closer.
Of course, Eovaldi has no experience closing games, so it makes sense that the Sox would at least be checking into options like Yates and Giles to see if another move was possible. That said, there are a lot of obstacles standing in the way of a trade for either closer. The Jays have a big asking price on Giles, while the Padres would reportedly only trade Yates for “an overwhelming offer.” Ergo, acquiring either right-hander would require the Sox to dig deep into an already-thin farm system.
In a pure bidding war for young minor leaguers, it seems unlikely that the Sox would be able to outbid most other interested suitors for either Giles or Yates, and their normal financial might (in terms of taking on money to accommodate trades) is limited by the team’s close proximity to the top luxury tax threshold of $246MM. Neither Giles or Yates are on particularly big salaries, though every dollar counts considering Roster Resource has Boston’s luxury tax number at just under $244MM.
While high-profile trades between division rivals are usually pretty rare, the Red Sox and Blue Jays combined on a notable deal just last summer, when the Sox acquired future World Series MVP from Toronto. By contrast, one wonders if the Sox could actually have a tougher time completing a trade with the Padres given the controversy that erupted between the two clubs over the Drew Pomeranz deal in July 2016. That said, San Diego and Boston have combined on one swap since the Pomeranz trade, the relatively minor deal last November that saw Colten Brewer go to the Sox.
If nothing else, Boston’s interest in Giles and Yates indicates that the team still sees itself as a contender and a buyer at the trade deadline. At this point, however, it seems like the Sox are vying only for a wild card spot, as Boston sits 11 games behind the Yankees in the AL East race. The Red Sox are three games behind Oakland for the final AL wild card berth, and with a tough road to travel just to get to a one-game playoff, there has been some suggestion (from both the Boston Globe’s Peter Abraham and MassLive.com’s Chris Cotillo) that the Sox should consider trading some veterans to unload salary and restock on young talent for another run in 2020.
Boston’s next 14 games are all against either the Yankees or the Rays, with eight of those games coming before the July 31 trade deadline. Both Abraham and Cotillo cite this upcoming stretch as the potential turning point of the Red Sox season, with Abraham describing the team’s July 29 off-day as “the organization’s deadline to decide whether this season is worth trying to save.”
MLBTR Chat Transcript: Woodruff, Cards, Chapman, Braves, Stroman
Click here to read the transcript of tonight’s baseball chat, moderated by MLBTR’s Mark Polishuk
AL West Notes: Kelley, Peacock, Puk
Shawn Kelley will undergo an MRI after feeling what the Rangers described as right biceps tendon soreness during today’s game, manager Chris Woodward told MLB.com’s Alyson Footer and other reporters. Kelley left today’s game without throwing a pitch, as the veteran righty’s injury developed during his warmup pitches after being called out of the bullpen during the eighth inning. Over 33 innings this season, Kelley has posted a 3.00 ERA, 8.73 K/9, and a 6.4 K/BB rate, so he’ll be sorely missed in the Texas bullpen if an injured list placement is required.
Kelley’s loss could be doubly problematic for the Rangers since the 35-year-old profiled as a potential trade chip for a Texas club that seems to be falling out of contention. After surprising many by staying within striking distance of the wild card hunt, a seven-game losing streak has dropped Texas to a 50-49 record and a deficit of 6.5 games between the Rangers and the A’s for the last AL wild card berth. With such players as Mike Minor and Danny Santana already drawing trade interest from rival teams, Texas is running short on time to prove to the front office that it can contend.
Some more from around the AL West…
- In an interview on the Astros‘ pregame show today (hat tip to the Houston Chronicle’s Chandler Rome), general manager Jeff Luhnow projected that Brad Peacock will likely be out of action until roughly the “middle of next month, realistically.” Peacock’s recovery from shoulder inflammation hit a setback last week, and the right-hander is now looking at an injured list stint of at least six weeks (he hit the IL on June 28) if Luhnow’s mid-August timeline ends up being accurate. Peacock’s extended absence has only further deepened the Astros’ need for pitching reinforcements, as he was expected to return from the IL last week.
- Top Athletics pitching prospect A.J. Puk will be promoted to the organization’s Triple-A affiliate, according to Melissa Lockard of The Athletic (Twitter link). After Tommy John surgery forced Puk to miss all of 2018, the 6’7″ left-hander got back into action in June, posting a 5.02 ERA, 13.8 K/9, and 3.14 K/BB rate over 14 1/3 combined innings at Double-A and high-A ball. They aren’t exactly dominant numbers for Puk, though between his long layoff and perhaps some bad luck (four homers in those 14 1/3 IP), the A’s are clearly encouraged enough to give Puk his first taste of Triple-A competition. The hard-throwing Puk would very likely have been in the big leagues last season had he avoided injury, and is still on track to make his MLB debut this season if he stays healthy. While the A’s will surely be as cautious as possible with one of their top young hurlers, Puk has the potential to be a very intriguing addition to Oakland’s bullpen or perhaps even the rotation as the A’s continue to chase another postseason berth.
- In AL West news from earlier today, the Angels officially released Matt Harvey, and the Mariners acquired righty Matt Magill in a trade with the Twins.
Latest On Braves’ Trade Targets
Reports from earlier this month suggested that the Braves hadn’t had any talks with the Blue Jays about Marcus Stroman, and ten days later, this is still the case, according to David O’Brien of The Athletic (Twitter link). It could be that the Braves are more focused on another Toronto pitcher in closer Ken Giles, as O’Brien writes that “I get [the] impression Giles could be a target” for Atlanta.
The Braves were one of eight teams who had scouts on hand Friday to watch Stroman’s most recent start, though as with many “scouts were in attendance…” types of reports at this time of year, this could be due diligence as much as a case of genuine interest on Atlanta’s part. Given that the Jays were facing another out-of-contention team in the Tigers, the Braves could have been more focused on some of Detroit’s trade candidates, in addition to Stroman, Giles, or other trade chips on the Blue Jays roster. (Giles, for the record, didn’t pitch on Friday through he did toss a scoreless inning for the save in Saturday’s game.)
Beyond just scouting, the Braves obviously have a very well-informed source on all things Stroman in general manager Alex Anthopoulos, whose front office made Stroman the 22nd overall pick in 2012 when Anthopoulos was Toronto’s GM. There has been some speculation as to whether any hard feelings between Anthopoulos and current Jays management could hamper any trade talks between the two clubs, though The Athletic’s Ken Rosenthal (Twitter links) notes that the Blue Jays’ “stance has softened” about making deals with Atlanta, if a particularly hard line was taken at all.
Toronto is known to be seeking a big return for Stroman, and the “ask is high” on Giles as well, in O’Brien’s words. Giles is not only under team control through 2020, but he is also one of the very best relievers on the trade market this month. The 28-year-old righty has a 1.64 ERA, 5.7 K/BB rate, and an enormous 15.55 K/9 over 33 innings this season.
Armed with a fastball that has above-average spin (as per Statcast) and an average velocity of 97.3 mph, Giles has quietly been one of baseball’s more dominant closers, and is seemingly all the way back to top form after running into some difficulties on the field and off with the Astros in 2017-18. While postseason struggles were a big part of Giles’ issues in Houston, he still represents a more proven ninth-inning answer than the Braves’ current closer, Luke Jackson.
Like many other teams, the Braves aren’t keen on giving up their top prospects for rental players, making Stroman (who also has an arbitration year remaining) and Giles more palatable trade targets since they can also help the club in 2020. Just one year of control, however, might not be enough to pry away some of the Braves’ top prospects from their highly-rated farm system. Gabriel Burns of the Atlanta Journal-Constitution lists right-handers Ian Anderson and Kyle Wright and outfielders Cristian Pache and Drew Waters (the Braves’ top four minor leaguers, according to MLB.com’s rankings) as the youngsters that could be closest to untouchable in trade discussions. None would be dealt “unless it’s for a controllable difference maker,” Burns writes, and it remains to be seen if the Braves would consider Stroman or Giles at that level. This is purely my opinion, but I doubt Atlanta would deal any of those prospects for a reliever, even one as talented as Giles.
It’s easy for fans or armchair GMs to argue that the Braves should be more forthcoming to deal from their large wealth of prospects, though ESPN.com’s Buster Olney (subscription required) noted that these minor leaguers are particularly important to a Braves organization that is more than a little hamstrung in the international market due to the signing violations that cost former GM John Coppolella his job in 2017. Since the Braves front office also seems to be operating with a mid-level payroll at best, it makes the pipeline of talent like Pache, Anderson, Wright, and Waters all the more important to the team going forward.
Danny Santana Drawing Trade Interest
At the All-Star break, the Rangers sat on the brink of playoff contention, looking like a team that could be a surprise bet to conservatively buy at the trade deadline. However, any hopes of contention look to be quickly vanishing, and the front office may not have to debate whether to buy or sell. Sunday’s loss makes it seven straight games that the Rangers have dropped, leaving the club just a game over .500 and now in fourth place in the division.
Should the Rangers elect to trade off veteran pieces and regroup in hopes of building a future contender, utilityman Danny Santana may be among the most coveted Rangers on the market. Per J.P. Morosi of MLB Network, the 28-year-old has garnered interest from several teams around baseball and could fetch a nice return for Texas. Though no specific teams are named, it seems reasonable to assume that most every team in playoff position would welcome a versatile offensive weapon. As Morosi notes, that interest may be heightened in light of the Royals’ steep asking price for Whit Merrifield, who would be the most attractive utility player on the market if the Kansas City weren’t so reluctant to let him go.
Santana, for his part, emerged as one of a number of minor-league signings fueling the Rangers’ surprise first-half performance. Formerly of the Twins and Braves, Santana appeared to have peaked as a rookie, when he posted a .824 OPS as a 23-year-old. After that, Santana’s OPS never climbed above .606 in a single season—until now, with an evolving approach leading to an offensive breakout. After posting below-average exit velocity numbers in his first years in the Majors, balls have left Santana’s bat at an average of 91.1 mph this season, a mark that ranks in the 83rd percentile, per Baseball Savant. Not only is he hitting the ball harder, but he is elevating it, leading to a career-high 13 home runs and a .250 ISO. With average launch angles of 3.4˚ in 2017 and 9.1˚ last season, that number has jumped to 12.3˚ this season. He likewise ranks favorably in hard-hit rate and expected batting metrics, indicating that his current performance cannot be easily dismissed as a fluke.
To be sure, though, Santana has outperformed those expected batting marks to some degree: his actual wOBA (.381) is nearly 40 points higher than expected (.342) and the same can be said for his batting average (.320 actual versus .282 expected), perhaps in large part thanks to an astronomical .399 BABIP. In that respect, then, teams may be hesitant to pencil Santana in to match his first half production. Those who inquire on Santana are essentially looking at a half-season’s worth of production, making Santana a more risky investment than players with long track records of success. That may depress his value somewhat, but Rangers general manager Jon Daniels should still be able to get a solid return, especially considering that Santana received virtually no attention when he signed in Texas.
However, those expected marks are still more than enough to attract some interest from contending clubs. Santana’s ability to play across the diamond might lower the offensive bar somewhat; teams in the hunt for a World Series won’t acquire Santana with the expectation that he plays every day at one position—rather, he might be deployed a la Chris Taylor or Marwin Gonzalez, hunting favorable matchups and spelling injured or resting regulars.
Santana has appeared at six different positions for the Rangers this season, providing passable (if unspectacular) defense. If defensive metrics like DRS and UZR are to be believed, Santana fits best as a middle infielder, largely grading out below average in the outfield. However, that doesn’t mean that he can’t provide value as an outfielder—giving his manager another option is valuable in and of itself, and Santana doesn’t have to play any one position exceptionally as long as he can play several capably. He’s also stolen 12 bases at a roughly 70% clip, which is an added bonus for Santana’s skillset.
Of course, money is always of interest in trade discussions, and Santana’s value only grows from a financial perspective. Agreeing to a minor-league deal with the Rangers prior to the season, his salary comes in at the league minimum, meaning that interested teams will owe essentially negligible money to Santana, who is controllable through 2021. His combination of affordability and the potential for long-term value—in addition to on-field performance—should make him an attractive candidate for plenty of teams between now and July 31. As Rangers position-players go, Santana may be the most valuable one who is likely to be dealt.