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AL Notes: Verlander, Correa, Hahn, ChiSox, Elias, Font

By Mark Polishuk | January 26, 2019 at 3:26pm CDT

Buzz from around the American League…

  • There haven’t been any extension talks between Justin Verlander and the Astros front office, the right-hander told reporters, including MLBcom’s Brian McTaggart (Twitter and video link).  “I don’t know what their organizational plans are.  It’s something I wouldn’t be opposed to….we’ll see what happens,” Verlander said.  It isn’t necessarily surprising to see a lack of negotiations between the two sides at this point, since most teams wait until their offseason business is complete and Spring Training begins before turning focus to extending in-house talent.  Still, there is some urgency in Verlander’s case, given that 2019 is his last guaranteed year under contract (he agreed to waive a possible vesting option for 2020 as part of his trade to Houston in August 2017).  Verlander is coming off one of his finest seasons, a campaign that saw him finish second in AL Cy Young Award voting after leading the league in both K/BB rate (a career-best 7.84) and strikeouts (290, another career high) while posting a 2.52 ERA over 214 innings.  There certainly doesn’t appear to be much evidence that Verlander is slowing down, even though he turns 36 in February.
  • There also haven’t been any long-term contract talks between Carlos Correa and the Astros, the shortstop tells the Houston Chronicle’s Chandler Rome.  Persistent back problems limited Correa to just 468 plate appearances in 2018 and a .239/.323/.405 slash line, easily the worst of his four MLB seasons.  “For me, right now is not the time to talk about [an extension],” Correa said.  “Obviously coming off the injury last year and the down year. I’m looking forward to bouncing back this year, be the player I am and we go from there.”  The first step is an arbitration hearing between Correa and the Astros on January 31, with Correa submitting a $5MM salary figure for 2019 and the team counting with a $4.25MM offer.  This is Correa’s first of three years of arbitration eligibility, so there is still plenty of time for the two sides to eventually work out a longer-term deal once Correa feels he’s coming off a better platform year.
  • White Sox GM Rick Hahn said he would “be personally disappointed” if the team didn’t sign Manny Machado or Bryce Harper, though he told MLB.com’s Scott Merkin and other reporters that the mere pursuit of such top-tier stars represents a new stage of the team’s rebuild.  “The fact that we are now sitting here in a potential position — or at least in a position where, if we don’t convert, people are going to be disappointed — I think is an important step forward for this organization,” Hahn said.
  • The Orioles aren’t likely to sign any free agents to multi-year contracts this winter, GM Mike Elias told Rich Dubroff of BaltimoreBaseball.com and other media, and the team could avoid any Major League contracts whatsoever for free agents.  With the O’s in the early stages of a rebuild, the team wasn’t much of a candidate to be making any long-term commitments, as the focus will instead be on giving time to young players.  That said, Elias didn’t close the door on any possibilities for his club, noting “we’re looking for ways to be opportunistic and true with the players that are left unsigned right now.”
  • Rays right-hander Wilmer Font has recently started to throw fastball-only bullpen sessions and expects to be ready for Spring Training, he tells MLB.com’s Juan Toribio.  Font suffered a lat strain in late June that wound up being a season-ending injury, rather than an eight-week DL stint as originally projected.  The injury brought an abrupt end to a very promising start for Font as a Ray, since the righty had a 1.67 ERA over his first 27 innings for Tampa after the club acquired him from Oakland in May.  A healthy Font would give the Rays yet another intriguing pitching weapon, able of a traditional bullpen role or perhaps again working as an “opener.”
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Baltimore Orioles Chicago White Sox Houston Astros Tampa Bay Rays Bryce Harper Carlos Correa Justin Verlander Manny Machado Mike Elias Rick Hahn Wilmer Font

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Agent: Nicholas Castellanos Prefers Trade Before Spring Training

By Steve Adams | January 26, 2019 at 1:58pm CDT

TODAY: Avila addressed the comments today, telling MLive.com’s Evan Woodbery (Twitter links) and other media that “That’s something where he felt like he needed to express that publicly. That’s fine.  [The comments] have no effect on the team or his performance or anything like that. He’ll come in in great shape. He’ll come in and compete and he’ll be one of our better hitters in the lineup and I expect him to have a great season.”  The general manager also reiterated that a trade “can’t be forced.”

THURSDAY: Nicholas Castellanos has seen his name bandied about the rumor circuit enough to know that the Tigers intend to trade him before this season’s non-waiver deadline, and his agent, David Meter, tells Anthony Fenech of the Detroit Free Press that Castellanos would prefer to open Spring Training with a new team if it’s a foregone conclusion that he’ll be moved eventually anyhow. However, Detroit general manager Al Avila said today (link via Will Burchfield of 97.1 FM The Ticket) that the market for Castellanos has been “frustrating” and plainly stated that, “…right now, really, I don’t have anything going on,” with regard to Castellanos talks.

Castellanos, 27 in March, is entering his final season of club control and has already agreed to a $9.95MM salary for the upcoming season. It’s no secret that the Tigers are well into a large-scale rebuild, and as a pending free agent, Castellanos stands out as an obvious trade piece. The two sides have reportedly discussed long-term arrangements in the past but failed to find a common ground.

There’s little denying that Castellanos is a high-quality bat that could deepen the lineup for any contending club. Over the past three seasons, he’s batted a combined .285/.336/.495 with 67 home runs, 107 doubles and 19 triples in 1790 trips to the plate. He’s cut back on his strikeout rate over the past two seasons as well and, in 2018, notched a career-best 7.2 percent walk rate that helped him post a career-high .354 on-base percentage. Castellanos isn’t the premier slugger that the Tigers had on their hands in J.D. Martinez, but he’s also younger and less expensive.

Like Martinez, however, the primary knock on Castellanos is his outfield defense. The converted third baseman shifted to right field full-time last season due to poor defense at his original position, but the results in the outfield weren’t any better. Castellanos graded out extremely poorly (-19 DRS, -12.9 UZR and a league-worst -24 Outs Above Average), which makes him a tough sell to a National League club. While it’s probably fair to expect that his glovework can improve with more reps at a still relatively new position, any team acquiring Castellanos to play in the field regularly would do so knowing that he’d be giving back a portion of the value provided by his excellent bat.

Fenech reports that the Tigers’ asking price for Castellanos has been one “top-level” prospect, adding that Detroit would need to feel it was receiving better value than a potential pick in the 2020 draft. That indicates that the organization considers Castellanos a potential qualifying offer candidate following the ’19 season.

Beyond Castellanos’ defensive shortcomings, the Tigers are in a tough spot with regard to trading Castellanos given that several plausible suitors have recently filled holes in other ways. The Dodgers reportedly struck a deal with A.J. Pollock just a few hours ago, and the Braves re-signed Nick Markakis earlier this week. The Rays, meanwhile, signed Avisail Garcia last week, and the division-rival Twins, who could’ve viewed Castellanos as a DH candidate, instead signed Nelson Cruz to a one-year deal with an option.

The Astros were also said to be in on Cruz and stand out as a speculative on-paper fit for Castellanos, and the Indians are known to be seeking some additional outfield help. Perhaps the Phillies could view Castellanos as something of a fallback option if their higher-profile pursuits don’t pan out, but Rhys Hoskins’ poor defense in left field was a catalyst for this offseason’s trade of Carlos Santana, and Castellanos’ struggles were similar, if not more substantial, to those of Hoskins. The Giants are reportedly in the mix for outfield help but don’t seem likely to pay a premium for a one-year rental (and also surely are wary of the defensive question marks). Similar sentiments could apply to the White Sox.

Of course, teams interested in Castellanos also figure to be reluctant to pay a premium when there are still so many corner-outfield options available in free agency. Marwin Gonzalez, Adam Jones, Carlos Gonzalez, Denard Span and Derek Dietrich are just some of the many alternatives in free agency, and while Castellanos is a safe bet to outperform most of that bunch (excepting Marwin Gonzalez, perhaps), the cost of acquisition would be only money. In the case of all but Marwin, in fact, each of that bunch should cost less than Castellanos’ $9.95MM total commitment. The trade market also has alternatives in the form of Hunter Renfroe, Eric Thames and others.

It’s understandable that Castellanos would want to know his fate sooner rather than later, but at the same time, there’s a greater supply of players with his skill set (or close to it) than there is demand. An injury to a contending club’s designated hitter or corner outfielder in Spring Training could create a new suitor, however, so perhaps it wouldn’t be the worst thing for Castellanos if he’s still with the Tigers when camp opens.

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Detroit Tigers Newsstand Nick Castellanos

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Quick Hits: Prospects, Grandal, Twins, Davis, A’s

By Mark Polishuk and Jeff Todd | January 26, 2019 at 1:18pm CDT

Vladimir Guerrero Jr. sits atop Baseball America’s annual preseason edition of its Top 100 Prospect rankings.  Guerrero had already moved into the #1 position in BA’s midseason rankings last summer after Shohei Ohtani and Ronald Acuna (the top two players in last spring’s top 100) gained enough big league playing time to lose their prospect status.  Guerrero is expected to make his long-awaited debut in the Blue Jays’ lineup at some point early in the 2019 season.  Fernando Tatis Jr., Eloy Jimenez, Wander Franco, and Forrest Whitley round out the top five.

Here’s more from around the baseball world…

  • Before signing a one-year deal with the Brewers worth $18.25MM in guaranteed money, Yasmani Grandal received multi-year offers from the Angels, Twins, and White Sox, The Athletic’s Robert Murray reports (subscription required).  These offers were in addition to the four-year deal reportedly floated by the Mets for Grandal, which he turned down.  As Grandal explained, taking the longer-term offers would’ve meant setting what he felt was a bad precedent for free agent catching contracts.  “One of my responsibilities as a player is also to respect the guys going through this process before me like Brian McCann, Russell Martin, Yadier Molina…These are guys who have established a market and pay levels for a particular tier of catchers like myself,” Grandal said.  “I felt l would be doing a disservice taking some of the deals that were offered even though they were slightly more long term.  I wanted to keep the line moving and set a bar for the younger guys coming up.  In hopes of them following our footsteps….hopefully, they know what they are worth and would go ahead and get paid what they’re worth.”  Grandal can technically achieve a second year on his Brewers deal, a mutual option for 2020 worth $16MM, though it seems unlikely that both he and the team would agree to enact their respective sides of that option.
  • The Twins’ offer to Grandal was worth around $13MM per season, 1500 ESPN’s Darren Wolfson tweets, though talks between the two parties “never gained traction.”  To use Grandal’s cited examples, $13MM is less in average annual value than McCann, Martin, and Molina each received in long-term deals from the Yankees, Blue Jays, and Cardinals, respectively.  (In fact, Molina averaged more than $13MM per year in each of his last two extensions with St. Louis.)  While time will tell if Grandal made the right move in turning down more long-term security, he clearly feels comfortable in betting on himself for a big 2019 season, while still picking up a nice one-year payday on a contending team.  The Twins’ pursuit of Grandal is interesting in light of recent comments from Derek Falvey and Thad Levine about the team’s rather conservative approach to spending this offseason, though obviously Minnesota (like any club) would be interested in larger multi-year deals if it felt it was getting something of a below-market price.
  • Athletics GM David Forst suggests that the door is still open to a long-term deal with slugger Khris Davis after the sides lined up on a 2019 contract for his final season of arbitration eligibility.  As Forst told John Shea of the San Francisco Chronicle and other reporters, the two sides have “continued that conversation” and could keep negotiating after Opening Day, if Davis is willing.  It had seemed possible that the need to hammer out an arb figure would drive talks, but with that already settled (at a hefty $16.5MM), any future-oriented agreement will simply have to reflect a difficult valuation case.  Davis is one of the game’s power bats, of course, but he’ll also be 32 on Opening Day 2020 and he doesn’t add value with the glove.
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Chicago White Sox Los Angeles Angels Milwaukee Brewers Minnesota Twins Oakland Athletics Khris Davis Vladimir Guerrero Jr. Yasmani Grandal

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J.T. Realmuto Trade Talks “Gaining Momentum”

By Jeff Todd | January 26, 2019 at 12:42pm CDT

TODAY: The Marlins aren’t allowing teams to discuss an extension with Realmuto, MLB.com’s Joe Frisaro reports (Twitter link).  This would certainly seem to be an obstacle for the Padres, given Morosi’s earlier news.  Beyond the Padres and Dodgers, Frisaro also lists the Rays, Reds, Braves, and Astros as suitors in the Realmuto sweepstakes, and it’s still “hard to handicap who has [the] inside edge” at this point.

FRIDAY: Trade talks between the Marlins and rival organizations regarding backstop J.T. Realmuto are “gaining momentum,” according to Jon Heyman of Fancred (via Twitter). In particular, he adds, the Padres and Dodgers are “believed most prominent” in the current stage of talks.

Those NL West rivals have long been rumored to be in the hunt for a player who established himself as the game’s best receiver in 2018. With two affordable seasons of control remaining, Realmuto is one of the top prizes of the offseason. That has led other teams — even some with established catchers — to enter the fray as well. At this point, it’s not at all clear that any of the previously rumored interested parties are out of the picture entirely. Frankly, there’s still little reason to believe that any given team is a favorite after months of still-unresolved chatter.

It is interesting, though, to see that report of momentum coincide with this additional, new bit of information: The Padres are not just interested in acquiring Realmuto’s final arbitration-eligible seasons. Rather, per MLB.com’s Jon Morosi (Twitter link), the San Diego organization is “insisting on [a] window to negotiate [a] contract extension” if they are to line up on a deal with the Marlins.

Structuring a deal in such a manner holds obvious appeal for the Padres, who surely do not fully expect to contend in 2019. And that could enable the Fish to maximize their return; no doubt, the Padres’ loaded farm includes quite a few players of interest, with San Diego backstops Austin Hedges and Francisco Mejia also representing sensible targets. But it also comes with some risk for the Miami organization. After all, a failure of the extension talks would mean re-opening trade negotiations, possibly with diminished leverage.

It’s worth bearing in mind, of course, that we’ve been waiting all winter for a Realmuto deal to come into focus. Perhaps it finally will — there isn’t much of a window left before camp opens, after all — but this certainly isn’t the first time we’ve been told of a build-up in talks. (See here and here.)

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Los Angeles Dodgers Miami Marlins San Diego Padres J.T. Realmuto

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Marlins Want Francisco Mejia In Padres’ Offer For J.T. Realmuto

By Mark Polishuk | January 26, 2019 at 9:45am CDT

The Padres have emerged as one of the more ardent trade suitors for Marlins catcher J.T. Realmuto, and now Miami looks to have its eyes on one of San Diego’s young backstops.  The Marlins want catching prospect Francisco Mejia included as part of the Padres’ offer for Realmuto, MLB.com’s Jon Morosi reports (Twitter link).

Mejia has already switched teams once in his brief pro career, coming to the Padres last summer as the return in the trade that sent Brad Hand and Adam Cimber to the Indians.  The 23-year-old switch-hitter was a consensus top-20 prospect in the game last season, with Baseball Prospectus going as far as to rank Mejia as the sport’s fifth-best minor leaguer.  He owns a career .293/.347/.452 slash line and 54 home runs over 2127 minor league plate appearances, and Mejia has also seen a bit of action at the MLB level, accumulating 76 PA with Cleveland and San Diego over the last two seasons.

Mejia saw a bit of work as a third baseman and corner outfielder in the minors, as the Tribe and Padres experimented with him at different positions given the presence of incumbent catchers (Yan Gomes, Austin Hedges) at the big league level.  With Miami, however, Mejia clearly would be the Marlins’ long-term answer behind the plate as Realmuto’s replacement.

While Mejia is a logical target for the Marlins, he also stands out as something of an expendable piece for the Padres, despite his intriguing potential.  Acquiring Realmuto would more than solidify their catching position, of course, particularly if the Padres were able to get Realmuto to agree to a contract extension before a trade (as Morosi mentioned in his earlier report).  Mejia’s star potential at the MLB level gives him more trade value than Hedges, who has proven to be an outstanding defender with some pop in his bat, but hasn’t shown much overall hitting prowess over 921 career PA for San Diego.

Given that the Marlins are known to want a huge return for Realmuto, it’s likely that they have also asked San Diego about Fernando Tatis Jr., MacKenzie Gore and Luis Urias, though the Padres have reportedly been unwilling to move any of those top prospects.  Even without those three involved, however, San Diego’s highly-touted farm system has so many interesting youngsters that the Padres could put together a tempting multi-prospect offer with Mejia as the headliner.

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Miami Marlins San Diego Padres Francisco Mejia J.T. Realmuto

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Minor MLB Transactions: 1/26/19

By Mark Polishuk | January 26, 2019 at 9:05am CDT

The latest minor league moves from around baseball…

  • The Angels announced their slate of non-roster invitees to their big league Spring Training camp, including several notable prospects, and names whose minor league signings have already been reported here on MLBTR’s pages.  The list also includes right-hander Miguel Almonte, who was outrighted off the 40-man roster after being designated for assignment last week.  Almonte tossed seven relief innings for the Halos last season, and has an 8.66 ERA over 17 2/3 career innings with the Royals and Angels.
  • The Dodgers have re-signed Justin De Fratus to another minor league deal, as revealed by the right-hander himself on his Instagram page.  (Hat tip to J.P. Hoornstra of the Southern California News Group.)  De Fratus posted a 4.74 ERA, 6.3 K/9, and a 3.00 K/BB rate over 133 combined innings for the Dodgers at the Double-A and Triple-A levels last season.  He started all 23 of his appearances in 2018, his second straight year of working as a starter after pitching almost exclusively as a reliever from 2010-16.  That stretch included De Fratus’ 194 career Major League innings with the Phillies from 2011-15, and he has since pitched in the minors for the Rangers, Mariners, Nationals and Dodgers looking for a return to the Show.
  • The Diamondbacks outrighted southpaw Jared Miller off their 40-man roster and down to Triple-A, as per a team announcement.  Miller was designated for assignment last week to create roster space for the newly-signed Wilmer Flores.  An 11th-round pick for Arizona in the 2014 draft, Miller has a 3.85 ERA, 9.7 K/9, and a 2.08 K/BB rate over 327 career minor league frames, but he was beset by severe control problems last season, issuing a whopping 63 walks over 42 Triple-A innings.
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Arizona Diamondbacks Los Angeles Angels Los Angeles Dodgers Transactions Jared Miller Justin De Fratus Miguel Almonte

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Cubs Sign Junichi Tazawa To Minor League Deal

By Mark Polishuk | January 26, 2019 at 8:08am CDT

The Cubs have signed right-hander Junichi Tazawa to a minor league contract, Mark Gonzales of the Chicago Tribune reports (Twitter link).

The move reunites Tazawa with Theo Epstein, who was the Red Sox general manager in December 2008 when Tazawa signed with Boston to begin his pro career (bypassing the Nippon Professional Baseball draft in order to go straight to North America).  Tazawa was a sturdy member of Boston’s relief corps from 2012-16, though his performance dropped off after he signed a two-year, $12MM free agent deal with the Marlins prior to the 2017 season.  The righty posted a 6.57 ERA over 75 1/3 innings in Miami, which led to his release last May.

Tazawa signed minors deals with the Tigers and Angels last season, getting back to the Majors for eight September games in an Angels uniform.  All in all, it has been an ugly two years for Tazawa — a 6.16 ERA, 7.1 K/9, 1.74 K/BB rate, and 1.6 HR/9 over his last 83 1/3 frames.  He has endured a big spike in his home run and hard-hit ball rates, as well as a decline in fastball velocity (92mph in 2018, down from 93mph in 2017 and an average of better than 94mph during his time in Boston).

Despite these recent struggles, there isn’t much risk for the Cubs in taking Tazawa to Spring Training to see if he has anything left in the tank.  Chicago has been on the hunt for low-cost bullpen help this winter, looking for depth since incumbent closer Brandon Morrow could miss Opening Day in the wake of elbow surgery.  Brad Brach signed a one-year, Major League deal with the team on Thursday, while the Cubs have also added the likes of Rob Scahill and George Kontos on minor league contracts.

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Chicago Cubs Transactions Junichi Tazawa

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Twins Front Office Discusses Spending Plans

By Jeff Todd | January 26, 2019 at 3:24am CDT

It seems the Twins are preparing for a light spending year, as Phil Miller of the Star Tribune writes, in spite of an apparent opportunity to challenge in the game’s weakest overall division. That seems to have led to some less-than-compelling efforts at selling the approach to fans. 

“The best moves are made not when you’re trying to open the window to contend, but when the window is wide open,” GM Thad Levine says. “We’re very eagerly waiting for this window to be opened, and when it is, we plan on striking.”

Meanwhile, president of baseball operations Derek Falvey cited a desire to “invest appropriately for the right years” and to “make sure we are getting the best years” when it comes to paying for talent.

To be frank, these statements are a bit befuddling. The logic is circular, to the extent it’s discernible at all. How is it, exactly, that one knows when the window has been opened, to borrow Levine’s passively-framed metaphor? Not just past performance, of course; after all, Falvey decries free agency, which “historically, is sometimes more focused on the past.” Instead, he says, “I want to pay for what’s coming in the future.” So, do the Twins foresee success?“You need to invest in the group that you have,” he says, “and I feel really good about ours.” Despite that assessment, here we are, evidently waiting for that window to be opened.

Somewhat ironically, there’s a risk here for the Twins that, by the time the window is opened (whatever it is that entails), it’ll slam back shut rather quickly. For one thing, as Falvey himself explained, low-budget teams oversee “a lot of variation … in terms of performance” since they are reliant upon less-proven talent year after year. So, perhaps, a one-year performance boost can’t even necessarily be relied upon (as the Twins well know from recent experience) in deciding when to push the pedal down. How, then, do you know when to get aggressive?

For another, the Twins’ would-be “core” group isn’t all that fresh-faced. Virtually all of the club’s key players are already in arbitration or will qualify for it next fall. Four of the team’s five starters will be free agents at season’s end. Even if there are some promising developments from still-controllable players, it could become awfully expensive to build around them before they themselves reach top-end arb salaries and then free agency.

The Minnesota front office duo found itself on more comfortable ground when emphasizing the more affirmative aspects of the plan. It seems there’s quite a premium being place on flexibility. That aspect of the explanation makes greater intuitive sense. Levine suggests that the club’s “unusual abundance of variance and volatility” — a characterization with which I’d generally agree — leaves some real upside on the table. If things break right, he says, the club has the assets needed “to make adjustments to this team pretty quickly.”

The plan, then, seems to be for the organization to see whether Byron Buxton, Miguel Sano, Max Kepler, and others will force the issue — with pending free agent bounceback candidates like Jonathan Schoop, Michael Pineda, Jake Odorizzi, Martin Perez, Blake Parker, and Addison Reed also representing major wild cards. Is things shake out, and the Indians stumble, then a deadline buy is always possible. If not, the Twins can trade the short-term pieces that are performing and look ahead to a future in which the organization has literally no salaries on the books.

That all makes sense enough, but it’s still surely rather frustrating for some fans. As Miller notes, the club is presently on track to carry a payroll that would stay below $100MM. That would seem to leave a fair bit of coin on the table when compared to recent spending levels — and leave the team short of maximizing its immediate opportunity (even account for possible mid-season swaps). Levine says the Twins want to strike when the moment is right; Falvey says they need to invest in the future. There’s an argument to be made that paying or trading for some relatively youthful, quality contributors now would be the perfect way to bet on the team’s talent without jeopardizing the future.

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Minnesota Twins

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Astros Owner Jim Crane On Keuchel, Marwin, Free Agency

By Jeff Todd | January 26, 2019 at 12:32am CDT

Astros owner Jim Crane gave some interesting comments today regarding his organization’s remaining plans for the winter and the state of the market at large, as MLB.com’s Alyson Footer of MLB.com reports on Twitter. It’s tough to tell the degree of interest, but Crane certainly seemed to indicate that the organization has some realistic inclination to bring back one or more of its recent players who remain available on the open market.

“We’ve got a couple guys that were here last year that are a possibility to be back here [this] year,” said Crane. “We hope that happens.” He went on to specifically cite southpaw Dallas Keuchel and utilityman Marwin Gonzalez, both of whom are among the most-accomplished players who have yet to find new teams. Calling both Keuchel and Gonzalez “great players and great for the franchise,” Crane suggested there was at least a chance still of a reunion.  “Maybe something will work out there,” he said, “who knows?”

It’s certainly arguable that both of those outgoing free agents still make sense on the roster. Between Keuchel and Charlie Morton, the Astros saw a lot of innings walk out the door. While there are options on hand to fill them, pursuit of another starter has long seemed sensible. It’s a bit of a tougher match with Gonzalez, particularly now that the Houston front office has acquired a potential replacement piece in Aledmys Diaz, but perhaps he’d still be of interest at the right price.

The club also bid adieu to several other veterans this winter, a few of whom have already signed elsewhere (including Morton). Backstop Martin Maldonado, southpaw reliever Tony Sipp, and DH Evan Gattis, however, all remain available after wrapping up their contracts with the ’Stros. Among them, Sipp seems to represent the most sensible roster fit, though there’s no reason to think at this point that he’s a particular target.

However things shake out on Keuchel and Gonzalez, Crane’s comments didn’t admit of much of an opening for the team to pursue free agent market’s two biggest stars — or much of an appetite for any true blockbuster contracts in the future. Stating that the market is “a little bottled up” due to the ongoing presence of Bryce Harper and Manny Machado, Crane went on to offer some revealing thoughts on the state of the hot stove economy and his own organization’s theoretical leanings.

“I think that teams are very focused on value,” said Crane of the business-wide approach to free agency. “I don’t know that you’ll see many more ten-year deals in this business anymore because the analytics are so good and a lot of those deals never work.”

The notion of value as an overriding concern — increasingly treated as something of an actuarial assessment of risk — is hardly a novel concept. But it’s interesting to see an owner not only come forward with that viewpoint, but to characterize it as an industry-wide phenomenon and acknowledge a particular practical ramification of such an approach.

Beyond those somewhat eyebrow-raising aspects of Crane’s comment, it’s also an interesting point to consider. It’s certainly possible to imagine decade-long deals that make sense, particularly for especially youthful players, even if it’s to be expected that the bulk of the on-field performance contributions will be reaped in such a contract’s earlier seasons. Beyond that, nobody really needed analytics to tell them of the concerns with guaranteeing so much money for so many years to one necessarily aging, potentially injured player. After all, the teams that have done so in the past did not tack on years and dollars because they preferred to; they simply did what it took to get the player in an open bidding situation.

Such elite players remain highly prized, of course, but the still-deepening analytical revolution — which has both recognized and helped usher in an influx of cheaply-acquired, increasingly well-prepared, league-minimum-earning players along with a youthened aging curve — has pointed to cheaper ways to maximize roster output while highlighting the financial risks of clogging future payrolls. The resulting reductions in demand have made it increasingly difficult for free agents to squeeze extra guaranteed seasons from clubs.

It’ll be interesting to see how things transpire this winter, with a pair of obvious candidates for extremely lengthy deals still waiting to sign them. While the Astros evidently will not be dabbling in such corners of the market, they’ll still be working to improve the roster in other ways — perhaps even by looking at the second tier of remaining free agents, which includes Keuchel, Gonzales, and others. “Every day we’re looking at opportunities,” says Crane.

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MLBPA Hires Jerry Crasnick

By Jeff Todd | January 25, 2019 at 10:00pm CDT

Long-time journalist Jerry Crasnick has an intriguing new gig, with the Major League Baseball Players Association announcing his hiring. He’ll serve as senior advisor for player, agent, and media relations, working alongside just-promoted director of communications Chris Dahl.

It came as a major surprise last year when Crasnick’s tenure with ESPN was brought to a close. He was a fixture in the baseball reporting community and had enjoyed a productive, a 15-year run at the sports media giant. Over the years, Crasnick provided a trove of insightful hot stove journalism; he also reported quite a few items that were cited on this website.

With the move, Crasnick will take up a role at the MLBPA at quite an interesting time for the union and its members. Effectively addressing the suboptimal developments in the sphere of player compensation will obviously require more than new collective bargaining ideas and willpower at the negotiating table. It’ll also mean laying the groundwork for leverage by performing nuanced public relations work.

MLBTR offers a tip of the cap to Jerry for all his outstanding reporting over the years and wishes him well in his new pursuit.

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