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Seibu Lions To Post Yusei Kikuchi

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The Seibu Lions will make left-hander Yusei Kikuchi available this winter via the posting system, according to a report from Sankei Sports (hat tip to Dylan Hernandez of the Los Angeles Times).  The 27-year-old isn’t eligible for full free agency until 2020, but reports from earlier this year indicated that Kikuchi was interested in testing himself in Major League Baseball, and it had been expected that the Seibu Lions would accommodate his request.

Kikuchi immediately becomes one of the most intriguing members of the 2018-19 free agent class, as he has posted strong numbers over eight pro seasons (all with Seibu Lions, apart from five starts in the Australian Baseball League in his rookie year).  Kikuchi has a 2.81 ERA, 8.0 K/9, and 2.43 K/BB rate over 1035 1/3 career innings, and particularly stood out after recording a 1.97 ERA and 10.4 K/9 over a career-best 197 2/3 frames in 2017.

Despite taking a bit of a step back results-wise (3.08 ERA, 3.40 K/BB rate, 8.4 K/9) this season, Kikuchi still drew quite a bit of attention from Major League scouts.  Fancred Sports’ Jon Heyman recently wrote that “most teams have been to Japan to see him this year,” specifically naming the Royals, Padres, Dodgers, and Phillies as interested suitors.  Evaluators from the Brewers, Giants, Red Sox, and Rangers also recently watched Kikuchi, as per the Kyodo News’ Jim Allen (Twitter link).

For an idea of what Kikuchi brings to the mound, Fangraphs’ Sung Min Kim provided a scouting report before the season, while MLB.com’s Jon Paul Morosi had a look at Kikuchi’s 2018 season back in August.  Kikuchi has a strong slider and a fastball in the 92-94mph range (that has touched 98mph at its fastest) as his two primary pitches, and he has worked both a changeup and a curveball into his repertoire this season, as former big leaguer and current Rakuten Golden Eagles pitcher Frank Herrmann told Morosi.  Herrmann warned that Kikuchi’s slider wasn’t as effective this year as it was in 2017, which led to Kikuchi leaning more heavily on his two secondary pitches.  Kim used Patrick Corbin as a partial comp for Kikuchi, as another left-hander with a strong fastball-slider combination, with the caveat that Kikuchi’s usage of the curve roughly 10% of the time is a notable difference between he and the Diamondbacks hurler.

Kikuchi’s durability could also be an issue, as shoulder problems have bothered him at several points during his career, including this season.  Kikuchi “had not reached the qualified amount of innings pitched in a season until 2016,” Kim writes.  The southpaw is listed at just 6’0″ and 194 pounds, and thus doesn’t have the big frame that would more easily project as capable of handling a regular turn in a Major League rotation, so interested teams could be wary of how Kikuchi would hold up health-wise.  That said, with more and more teams using their bullpens in creative ways, it wouldn’t be surprising to see Kikuchi eased the big leagues by pitching receiving an extra day of rest, working on a limited pitch count in starts, or any number of other possible answers if his shoulder is of particular concern.

Kikuchi first appeared on the Major League radar screen back in 2009, when he considered taking the unusual step of signing with an MLB team as an amateur rather than an NPB club.  It’s interesting that several of the teams — the Dodgers, Rangers, Red Sox, and Giants — interested in Kikuchi almost a decade ago are still keeping an eye on him now, after he has established himself as a quality starter in Japanese baseball.

There was some thought earlier this year that Kikuchi could land a $100MM contract from a Major League team, though it’s possible that price tag has dropped thanks to the slight dip in form and the shoulder problems that Kikuchi dealt with over the 2018 season.  Kikuchi’s age and experience makes him exempt from the international bonus pool system, so he is in line for a very lucrative multi-year contract rather than the limited deal that Shohei Ohtani had to settle for as a 23-year-old last winter.

Kikuchi also looks to be the first major name whose arrival in North American baseball will be covered by the new posting agreement between MLB and NPB.  Under the former agreement, Japanese teams would receive a posting fee that maxed out at $20MM, whereas now teams will receive a posting fee that is determined by the size of the contract that the player signs with his new Major League team.  Morosi notes that a player must be posted between November 1 and December 5, and the player will have a 30-day window to negotiate with teams after being posted.

A.J. Preller On Padres’ Offseason Plans

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Padres general manager A.J. Preller spoke to reporters (including Kevin Acee of the San Diego Union-Tribune and AJ Cassavell of MLB.com) today, prior to his team’s final game of what ended up as a 66-96 campaign.  Here are some of the most pertinent items of Preller’s chat, in regards to what his front office has ahead for the coming offseason…

  • The Padres have yet to post a winning record in Preller’s four full years as GM, and haven’t had a winning season of any sort since 2010.  After another year of rebuilding and focusing on young talent, however, Preller believes the team can take a step forward competition-wise in 2019.  “[We’re] starting to climb out of this point where it’s a development mindset, where we’re at the bottom part of the standings….From our standpoint next year we’re going to look to start to compete.  You’ve got to get over .500 to do that,” Preller said.
  • After last winter’s surprising signing of Eric Hosmer, San Diego could again pursue some of the bigger-name free agents in this year’s market, or (as they did at the trade deadline) look to acquire controllable starting pitching.  “I think we start with: Never say no to anything,” Preller said.  “It’s not like anything is off-limits. We’re open to every possibility, every situation.”  In regards to potential trades, the GM noted that “In the last 12 months, any established players that have been put on the trade market, we’ve been part of those discussions.  We’ve had other teams reaching out to us, wanting to tap into some of the resources we have in our system.  I think that’ll be no different this offseason.  We’ll evaluate the guys we have in our system, versus what we’re able to.”
  • While San Diego could dip into its vaunted prospect depth to swing a trade or two this offseason, it would seemingly be surprising if the club dealt any of its top blue-chippers for the sake of immediate improvement.  As Preller noted, his goal is to build a long-term contender: “Every decision we make is built toward a plan.  What we’re not going to do is short-circuit that.  The last few years, we’re building, really, to get away from the mindset of being average.”
  • The Padres have approximately $51.4MM in guaranteed salaries committed to the 2019 payroll, with Preller saying “I feel like we’re going to have some financial flexibility because a lot of the players are younger players. We understand we’re at that point from a plan standpoint where we’re going to have to supplement from the outside – be it the free agent or trade route. We’ll look to do that in the next few months.”
  • The bulk of next year’s payroll expenditures are due to the salaries of Hosmer and Wil Myers, and Cassavell thinks it possible that the Padres could try to move Myers due to the former first baseman’s position crunch.  Franmil Reyes and Hunter Renfroe have earned more playing time in the corner outfield spots in 2019, leaving Myers perhaps at third base (where he struggled defensively, albeit in a small sample size) or maybe in a super-utility role at both corner infield and outfield spots.  Of course, Cassavell also believes that Reyes or Renfroe could be traded to address the crowed corner outfield situation, and obviously either of those two younger players would be easier to deal given that Myers is owed at least $64MM through the 2022 season.
  • Preller said that the team hadn’t yet decided on Myers’ role for next season, though Myers will be informed early so he can properly prepare heading into Spring Training.  For his part, Myers believes that “with an offseason, I will absolutely be able to play third base.”
  • Freddy Galvis could also be a factor at third base, as Preller expressed an interest in re-signing the veteran.  Galvis hit .248/.299/.380 over 656 PA while appearing in all 162 games, appearing as a shortstop in all but five of those contests.  Galvis hasn’t played the hot corner since 2014, but he’d have to shift into a utility role if he returns to San Diego, as the team plans to give more infield time to its top young players next year.

West Notes: Trout, Beltre, Andrus, Bumgarner, Posey

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Mike Trout just concluded yet another MVP-caliber season, yet team success has continued to elude the superstar.  Trout has only been part of one playoff team (in 2014) and has yet to win even a single postseason game after eight seasons.  With Trout only signed for another two years, the Angels may need to turn things around quick to have a better chance at extending or re-signing him, and Trout indeed told Jeff Fletcher of the Orange County Register that playing for a contender is a “huge” factor in deciding his future plans.  “I want to come to the ballpark playing for something.  That’s everybody’s goal here as a player.  You don’t want to come playing for nothing,” Trout said.  This being said, he still holds the Angels organization in high regard: “My years here we haven’t been winning, but they’ve been taking care of me.  I enjoy coming to the ballpark.  It (stinks) when it’s September and you’re out of it. But when I was a kid they took a chance on me.  We’ll see how it goes. I’ve got a couple more years and we’ll go from there.”  Trout also laughed off the idea of the Angels trading him over the next two years, per Fletcher, saying he “for sure” expects to remain with the franchise through at least 2020. In hopes of keeping Trout beyond then, the Halos are expected to discuss an extension with him during the offseason, Fletcher writes.

Elsewhere around the majors’ West divisions…

  • There is a chance the left side of the Rangers’ infield will consist of two new starters next season, as third baseman Adrian Beltre could retire and shortstop Elvis Andrus has an opt-out in his contract. In the latest update regarding the two close friends, Jeff Wilson of the Star-Telegram tweets that Beltre is “genuinely torn” on whether to come back in 2019.  Evan Grant of the Dallas Morning News believes Beltre will walk away, and he explains why in a piece which pays respect to the future Hall of Famer. Andrus, meanwhile, is still planning to stay with his current contract, as was the case a few weeks ago, according to Wilson. Vacating the remainder of the deal would mean leaving a four-year, $58MM guarantee on the table, which may be too risky in the wake of a down season for Andrus.
  • The Giants are open minded with what to do with ace Madison Bumgarner as they seek a new baseball operations leader, CEO Larry Baer suggested Sunday. The team “does not plan to dictate a timetable for contention or major decisions such as trading or keeping” Bumgarner, Henry Schulman of the San Francisco Chronicle writes. Instead, the Giants will listen to the candidates’ opinions on the best course of action in regards to Bumgarner, who’s only under control for another year. As for longtime battery mate Buster Posey, the soon-to-be 32-year-old will remain behind the plate when he returns from hip surgery next season – perhaps as early as Opening Day, per Schulman. “There’s been no discussion about him playing any other position,” executive vice president Brian Sabean said. “He’s our franchise player and he wants to catch.”
  • More on the Giants, who plan to go into next season with Steven Duggar as their Opening Day center fielder, Andrew Baggarly of The Athletic tweets. The 24-year-old got his first taste of major league action this season and hit a below-average .255/.303/.390 (87 wRC+) in 152 plate appearances, though he did account for four Defensive Runs Saved and a 1.4 Ultimate Zone Rating in 345 innings as a center fielder. Baseball America (subscription required) ranks Duggar as the Giants’ sixth-best prospect.

Angels Manager Mike Scioscia To Step Down

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Mike Scioscia is stepping down from his post as Angels manager, the veteran skipper announced to the media (including Bill Shaikin of the Los Angeles Times and MLB.com’s Maria I. Guardado) after the Halos concluded their final game of the season.  Rumors had swirled since August that this would be Scioscia’s final year as Los Angeles’ manager, and while there was some indication that Scioscia would retire from baseball altogether, he said today that he would be open to another managerial job with another club.

According to team president John Carpino (via Shaikin and other reporters), it was Scioscia’s decision to not return to the Angels.  This doesn’t exactly match last week’s news that Scioscia wanted to remain with the club, as he said he would make his final choice after talking with owner Arte Moreno and GM Billy Eppler.  This was the final season of Scioscia’s ten-year/$50MM contract, so the Angels could possibly have felt that change was necessary in the wake of three straight losing seasons.

Still, Scioscia’s 19-year tenure as the Angels’ bench boss has easily been the most successful stretch in franchise history.  Scioscia was a first-time manager when originally hired prior to the 2000 season, and he ended up managing the fifth-most games with a single franchise of any skipper in baseball history.  He currently sits 18th on baseball’s all-time managerial win list with 1650 victories (against 1428 losses).  Scioscia’s resume with the Halos included 11 winning seasons, six AL West titles, and the crowning jewel of the 2002 World Series championship, the first and only time the Angels have hoisted the Commissioner’s Trophy.

Over the last nine seasons, however, the Angels reached the postseason only once, a trip that resulted in an ignominious three-game sweep to the Royals in the 2014 ALDS.  Given that the game’s best player (Mike Trout) was on the roster for much of this stretch and the Angels have consistently posted large payrolls under Moreno’s ownership, there have been whispers over the last couple of years that Scioscia wouldn’t be back in 2019, if not sooner.  In fairness to Scioscia, however, it’s hard to blame him for the Angels’ recent struggles given that the team has been hit by a staggering amount of pitching injuries over the last three years.

It isn’t clear if Scioscia (who turns 60 in November) will pursue a managerial post immediately, or if he might take a year off to recharge his batteries and test the market.  The Reds, Rangers, and Blue Jays are the only three teams known to be looking for new managers this winter, and there has been heavy speculation that the Orioles could also be looking to replace Buck Showalter.  It’s possible more jobs could open up in the coming days or even weeks, depending on whether any playoff teams decide to make a change in the dugout.

The Angels will now embark on their first managerial search of the 21st century.  As Ken Rosenthal initially noted last August in his report about Scioscia’s impending departure, top in-house candidates for the job include bench coach Josh Paul, special assistant Brad Ausmus, and Triple-A manager Eric Chavez.  Fancred’s Jon Heyman wrote earlier this week that Chavez could be the favorite, as he only took over the Triple-A job (moving from his own special assistant role under Eppler) in early August, around the time of Rosenthal’s report.  It’s fair to assume that a wider-ranging search could take place, as external candidates are likely to have strong interest in a managing a roster that includes the likes of Trout, Shohei Ohtani, Justin Upton, and other intriguing pieces, though obviously the front office has some work to do this winter to get the Angels back in contending form.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images

Baseball Blogs Weigh In: Verlander, Wright, Yanks, Mauer, V-Mart

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This week in baseball blogs…

Submissions: ZachBBWI @gmail.com

NL Notes: Kershaw, Nats, Harper, Reds, Girardi

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The Dodgers clinched a playoff berth with a win over the Giants on Saturday, but Los Angeles still isn’t a lock to participate in a postseason series. Entering play on Sunday, the Dodgers and Rockies were tied atop the NL West. In the event Colorado wins the division, which may come down to a one-game tiebreaker between the teams on Monday, LA would have to get through the wild-card one-off on Tuesday in order to reach the NLDS. Ace Clayton Kershaw wouldn’t start that do-or-die contest, given that he just tossed five innings Saturday. So, because Kershaw could opt out of the remaining two years and $65MM left on his contract after the season, it’s possible Saturday’s start will go down as his last with the Dodgers. Kershaw was asked about his opt-out Saturday, but as you’d expect, his focus is on the playoffs. “I mean – I can’t really give an answer because I don’t know what’s ahead,” he told Bill Plunkett of the Orange County Register. “I know we’ve got the playoffs ahead. It’s a good distraction. If we weren’t making the playoffs, I probably would have put a lot more thought into where we’re going and what I’m doing personally. But right now, I can’t do it. There’s not enough room up there (in his mind) for both.”

More on a couple other NL clubs..

  • This season will end up as a major disappointment for the Nationals, who entered as expected contenders but will miss the playoffs under first-year manager Dave Martinez. Nevertheless, Martinez and his staff are safe going into the offseason, general manager Mike Rizzo told Mark Zuckerman of MASNsports.com and other reporters on Sunday. It’s anyone’s guess whether Martinez will continue to manage superstar outfielder Bryce Harper, a pending free agent, in 2019. Unsurprisingly, though, Rizzo wants Harper to remain in the fold. “Of course he’s in our plans,” Rizzo said of Harper (Twitter link via Chelsea Janes of the Washington Post).
  • It’s a near certainty the Reds will have Joe Girardi on their wish list as they search for a full-time manager, Ken Rosenthal of FOX Sports reports (video link). If Cincinnati does pursue Girardi, the former Marlins and Yankees skipper informed Rosenthal he would consider taking the job. “I want to manage again. I’m interested in everything,” said Girardi, whom the Yankees parted with last fall after a long and successful run in New York. On paper, the rebuilding Reds and Girardi may not look like a match, though it’s worth noting they expect to spend more in 2019 and could attempt to start pushing toward contention.
  • The Reds’ 2019 manager will have to decide how to deploy righty Michael Lorenzen, a reliever who could vie for a starting role next season. Lorenzen started 21 times as a rookie in 2015, but he moved to a full-time relief job the next season. He has since made three starts, all of which came this season, and ended his year on Saturday with 5 2/3 scoreless innings against the Pirates. The 26-year-old then said (via Mark Sheldon of MLB.com) that he wants to return to starting on a full-time basis. “It’s not a secret that it’s something I want to do,” said Lorenzen, who added he’ll “work extremely hard” in the offseason to bolster his chances. Lorenzen was a valuable member of the Reds’ staff in 2018, as he posted a 3.11 ERA/4.18 FIP over 81 innings. He also did his best offensively to serve as the NL’s answer to Shohei Ohtani, hitting an excellent .286/.333/.750 with four home runs in 31 trips.

Mets Notes: GM Search, Callaway, Cespedes, Reyes

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Speaking with reporters on Sunday, Mets COO Jeff Wilpon revealed that he and assistant general manager John Ricco will lead the initial round of interviews to find the team’s next GM (via Mike Puma of the New York Post). While the job still technically belongs to Sandy Alderson, it seems the leave of absence he took in June to battle cancer essentially ended his reign atop the team’s baseball department. Indeed, the Mets have known since June that they’d need a new GM, Tim Healey of Newsday was among those to tweet. None of Ricco or fellow assistants Omar Minaya and J.P. Ricciardi are candidates to succeed Alderson, Wilpon said (via Puma), though he hopes those three return. Whether that happens will be up to the team’s next baseball chief, however.

The Mets would like to hire a new general manager in time for the GM meetings in November, but that’s not a necessity, per Wilpon. He also revealed that the team will consider a president/GM or executive VP/GM power structure, James Wagner of the New York Times reports. On the role Alderson’s replacement will have in building the team, Wilpon said, “They will know that their final recommendation will go through me, but it’s not something where I am in the mix of picking the players.”

  • It’s possible the Mets’ coaching staff will also see changes heading into next season. First-year manager Mickey Callaway said he expects his whole staff to return in 2019 (per Healey), but he may not be even be safe. Callaway’s fate “will depend on the new GM’s thoughts,” Wagner tweets. Wilpon did praise Callaway & Co. on Sunday, saying (via Healey): “Mickey and the staff did a nice job not letting anybody quit and keeping them moving forward, which was certainly something that could have happened. We saw it with other teams in our division, where they had a great first half and fell apart.” While crediting his own team’s coaches, Wilpon jabbed at the NL East rival Phillies, who collapsed in the second half of the season.
  • Mets outfielder Yoenis Cespedes will undergo the second of two scheduled heel surgeries on Oct. 23, Tim Britton of The Athletic was among those to tweet. Cespedes expects to resume baseball activities roughly four months later, but he still won’t be able to run, Britton adds. The soon-to-be 33-year-old underwent his first heel surgery in late July, which ended his season and could keep him out for a sizable portion of 2019.
  • Meanwhile, one of Cespedes’ teammates – infielder Jose Reyes – told reporters that Sunday’s game will be his last with the Mets, Wagner relays. The 35-year-old Reyes, a Met from 2003-11 and again since 2016, has managed a meager .583 OPS in 250 plate appearances this season. Reyes hasn’t decided on whether he’ll try to play again in 2019, but considering his output this year, he may not generate any interest as a free agent.

Ned Yost To Manage Royals In 2019

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The Royals and manager Ned Yost have agreed to a one-year extension, Jon Morosi of MLB Network tweets. The deal is for next season, which will be Yost’s 10th as the Royals’ skipper.

At 58-103, the Royals have already clinched the majors’ second-worst record, but it’s hard to blame that on Yost. The rebuilding club is low on talent, after all, and figures to be in for another lean year next season, when it’s slated to reduce its payroll. That’s apparently OK with Yost, who has the full confidence of general manager Dayton Moore.

“We definitely want him back,” Moore said in April, adding that Yost has earned the right to manage the club for as long as he wants.

While the Royals have gone an underwhelming 687-735 under Yost, who took the reins in 2010, they’ve been resoundingly successful at times during his tenure. The Yost-led team won back-to-back American League pennants from 2014-15 and broke a 30-year championship drought in the latter of those seasons. Kansas City has also posted records of .500 or better in two other seasons during Yost’s reign.

Prior to joining the Royals, Yost managed Milwaukee from 2003-08, a span in which the Brewers logged a 457-502 record.

Diamondbacks Notes: Corbin, Miller, Descalso, Souza

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Left-hander Patrick Corbin is set for a lucrative trip to free agency in the offseason, having just wrapped up a campaign in which he was somewhat quietly one of the majors’ premier pitchers. Corbin, who reached 200 innings for the first time in his career, ranks third among starters in FIP (2.47), fourth in fWAR (6.3), sixth in K/9 (11.07) and K/BB ratio (5.13), and 14th in ERA (3.15). Those numbers may help price Corbin out of Arizona, and based on his comments Friday, the 29-year-old “seems to believe his time with the Diamondbacks likely is over,” Nick Piecoro of the Arizona Republic writes “I think when the season is over, I’ll look into it more,” Corbin said. “I think I’ll just look back on my time here. The seven years have gone by really quick. A lot of friendships that I’ve had here. I’m not sure what’s going to happen. But the Diamondbacks organization will always have a special part of my heart.”

Here’s more from Piecoro:

  • Another member of the Diamondbacks’ staff, righty Shelby Miller, will “probably” reach free agency, Piecoro tweets. Miller’s controllable through 2019, which is scheduled to be his fourth and final arbitration year, but the club could non-tender him after another disappointing season. Miller, who’s on a $4.9MM salary this year, has barely pitched since 2017 on account of arm injuries. He logged just 22 frames before undergoing Tommy John surgery last season, and after returning this past June to throw 15 innings over four subpar starts, went back to the shelf with elbow inflammation. Miller did come back to throw a scoreless inning Saturday, but that’s of little consolation to the D-backs amid another lost season for him. If Arizona does say goodbye to the soon-to-be 28-year-old Miller, it’ll mark the end of a disastrous union which began with his much-maligned acquisition from Atlanta in December 2015.
  • Diamondbacks pending free-agent infielder Daniel Descalso spoke about his future Friday, telling Piecoro he “would hate to see” the club embark on a rebuild after a disappointing season. While Descalso “sounds interested” in staying in Arizona, per Piecoro, the team’s direction may determine whether that happens. Descalso revealed that team success will be among his key considerations as he maps out his future. Age (32 next month) won’t be on Descalso’s side when he hits free agency, but he’s hopeful his recent output will help him reel in a richer payday than he received last time he reached the market. Arizona signed Descalso to a one-year, $1.35MM guarantee in 2017 and then kept him this season with a $2MM club option. He has been well worth that investment in ’18, having batted .239/.354/.437 (112 wRC+) with a career-best 13 home runs in 422 plate appearances.
  • When the Diamondbacks acquired outfielder Steven Souza Jr. from the Rays last February, their hope was that he’d help fill the void of superstar slugger J.D. Martinez, who departed in free agency. Instead, as Piecoro explains, Souza struggled through an injury-shortened 2018. Souza batted an ugly .217/.306/.354 (80 wRC+) with four homers in 271 PA this year, during which he endured multiple DL stints for a strained right pectoral. The 29-year-old discussed his tough season with Piecoro, saying: “Not great. It’s just been a really trying year. To the point of injury, re-injury, the trade, coming back and not playing well. All of it has just been a trying year, one I’m going to use for motivation next year.” Souza went on to suggest that he’s still not 100 percent from that injury, which he suffered in late March, but he and the team expect a return to form in 2019. “We believe in this guy strongly,” general manager Mike Hazen said. “We believe he’s going to come back next year and have a great year.” Souza’s only a season removed from a career year in Tampa Bay, where he hit .239/.351/.459 (120 wRC+) with 30 homers, 16 steals and 3.7 fWAR in 617 PA. That performance helped him secure a $3.5MM salary for this year, his third-to-last arbitration-eligible season.

Poll: Yankees’ Wild-Card Starter

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While we know the Yankees will host the Athletics in the American League wild-card game on Wednesday, it’s not yet clear which pitcher will start for either team. The A’s seem poised to take an unconventional path and roll with their bullpen all night, as Susan Slusser of the San Francisco Chronicle reported Saturday, while the Yankees are likely to take a more traditional path. New York’s brass is currently debating whether to start Luis Severino, J.A. Happ or Masahiro Tanaka, who comprise the top three in the team’s rotation.

No matter who starts for the Yankees, one thing’s obvious: He’s in for an extremely difficult test against Oakland, whose offense ranks fourth in the majors in runs scored. The A’s have been death on both right-handers (112 wRC+) and lefties (106), meaning the Yankees can’t base their pick largely on pitcher handedness, and own the majors’ best road wRC+ (116). They also lead the league in fly ball rate (38.9 percent) and rank third in home runs, which bodes well for a team set to play at HR-friendly Yankee Stadium.

The A’s power could help steer the Yankees away from Tanaka, a homer-prone righty whose HR-to-FB rate (17.7 percent) is the majors’ sixth highest among pitchers who have thrown at least 150 innings this year. The left-handed Happ’s 30th in that category (13.4 percent), while Severino sits 45th (11.4 percent). On the other hand, the fact that Tanaka tends to shy away from fastballs could work in his favor. Tanaka has thrown his splitter 32 percent of the time this year, and according to Statcast, the A’s have only managed the majors’ second-worst weighted on-base average (.162) against that pitch. The 29-year-old’s main offering is his slider, which he has gone to 33 percent of the time. Oakland does place third in the majors in wOBA versus that pitch, though its .287 mark still doesn’t look that threatening. The A’s have also held their own against four-seam fastballs, evidenced by their .361 wOBA (ninth in the game), and that’s the pitch both Severino (50 percent) and Happ (59 percent) rely on the most.

The above numbers may factor into the Yankees’ decision for Wednesday, though if they make their call largely on upside, Severino will be the choice. The hard-throwing 24-year-old has been one of the sport’s most electrifying starters since last season, after all, and looked like an AL Cy Young front-runner during the first half of the season. Severino has experienced some turbulence since then, as he posted a horrid 5.57 ERA in the second half. At the same time, though, the righty still recorded excellent secondary numbers (10.86 K/9 against 2.00 BB/9, 3.37 FIP/3.06 xFIP), which suggests he deserved much better than his unsightly ERA, and finished the regular season allowing two or fewer earned runs in three straight starts.

Like Severino, Happ has been hot lately. Not only does Happ own a 2.62 ERA in the second half, but the 35-year-old has helped the Yankees to wins in nine of his 11 starts since they acquired him from the Blue Jays on July 26. However, his 4.21 FIP as a Yankee indicates fortune has been on his side. Tanaka, meanwhile, enjoyed a lights-out second half of the season in which he put up a 2.85 ERA/2.98 FIP with 9.41 K/9 and 1.61 BB/9. But it’s worth pointing out he’s fresh off back-to-back rough starts that saw him yield a combined eight earned runs in as many innings.

Based on numbers, selecting a starter against the A’s may not be a slam dunk for the Yankees. But in the end, the club’s choice might not even be on the mound for long. Whether it’s Severino, Tanaka or Happ, New York won’t gives its first-inning pick much rope Wednesday, largely because its bullpen is loaded with appealing choices. That relief corps was put to the test early in the Yankees’ wild-card game win last year, when the Twins teed off on Severino and chased him off the mound after he recorded just one out and allowed three earned runs. The Yankees’ bullpen saved them in a comeback victory in the Bronx that night, and they can only hope they won’t need that kind of help again in this season’s sudden death round.

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