Trade Chatter: Seager, Mariners, Gray, Indians, Rays
As the Mariners continue to explore further ways to get younger and shed payroll, Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic reports that the team won’t be attaching Kyle Seager‘s contract to Mitch Haniger in an effort to escape the remaining three years and $56MM on Seager’s seven-year deal (subscription required). First and foremost, the Seattle organization considers Haniger to be among the five best corner outfielders in baseball, Rosenthal notes. Beyond that, however, Seager’s contract contains a clause converting a $15MM club option for the 2022 season into a player option, should he be traded. Because that clause makes the remainder of the contract so unappealing to trade partners, he may very well need to rebuild some value in 2019 before he can be flipped. Rosenthal’s column also sheds some light on the Mariners’ other discussions on Robinson Cano and Edwin Diaz, in addition to highlighting the organization’s affinity for newly acquired prospect Jarred Kelenic.
Some more trade rumblings from around the league…
- The Padres and Brewers are among the teams still in contact with the Yankees about a potential Sonny Gray swap, per Jon Morosi of MLB.com (Twitter links). Both organizations have been tied to various starting pitching options, though the Padres are a particularly curious fit, given their focus on the 2020 season and Gray’s status as a one-year rental. However, as Morosi’s colleague, AJ Cassavell, explains in greater detail, San Diego’s interest has some logic to it. Gray’s stock is down, and a resurgence in San Diego (like many arms before him) could allow him to either be traded for a greater price next July or position him to receive a qualifying offer next offseason. Even if the acquisition doesn’t pan out, he wouldn’t put a huge dent into a deep San Diego farm system. As for the Brewers, they’ve already got a deep collection of right-handed starters, but perhaps they view Gray as a premium rebound candidate and/or feel that acquiring him could allow them to deal from the back end of their current collection of rotation candidates.
- ESPN’s Buster Olney tweets that the market for Indians starters Corey Kluber, Carlos Carrasco and Trevor Bauer could come more into focus now that Patrick Corbin is off the board. Notably, Olney suggests that Cleveland “might” ask that a trade partner take Jason Kipnis and the remaining money on his contract ($17MM), though obviously doing so would rather notably diminish the return that the Indians would receive for any of their top three starters. Still, that scenario would certainly hold appeal to deeper-pocketed suitors of the Indians’ starters — particularly those with a good deal of long-term payroll flexibility (e.g. the Phillies).
- The Rays were among the teams with interest in Mets right-hander Noah Syndergaard, per Marc Topkin of the Tampa Bay Times (Twitter link), although Mets GM Brodie Van Wagenen strongly downplayed the possibility of trading Syndergaard earlier today. That said, Tampa’s interest in “Thor” is nonetheless notable, as it points to an interest in adding a controllable arm if one can be found at a reasonable financial price point. Then again, as a high-end starter with a projected salary under $6MM and three years of team control remaining, Syndergaard is (or was) something of a rarity on the trade market. Speculatively speaking, perhaps either Michael Fulmer or Jon Gray could be viewed in that same light, but both right-handers are coming off poor seasons, making it tough for their respective organizations to sell low.
Yankees, Phillies Turn To Alternatives Following Corbin Agreement
9:12pm: The Yankees are “hesitant” to pursue a reunion with Eovaldi if his market pushes to four years, reports Joel Sherman of the New York Post.
7:55pm: Neither the Yankees nor the Phillies were willing to go to a sixth year for lefty Patrick Corbin, per reports from Billy Witz of the New York Times and Jon Heyman of Fancred (Twitter links), and they’re now left to seek out alternatives following Corbin’s reported six-year, $140MM agreement with the Nationals.
For the Yankees, that means shifting their focus to a pair of familiar faces in Nathan Eovaldi and J.A. Happ, Jon Morosi of MLB.com tweets. Witz suggests that the Yankees will also continue looking into Keuchel and further explore the trade market.
Meanwhile, it seems that the Phillies will be giving the Yankees some competition in some of those efforts. MLB.com’s Todd Zolecki reports that Happ will now become a primary focus for the Phils, while Fancred’s Jon Heyman tweets that Philadelphia “will consider” Dallas Keuchel. The Phillies are aiming to add one starter to the rotation, Heyman continues, with a left-hander in particular being a preference.
Keuchel, Eovaldi and Happ are the consensus top starters remaining on the market, with the possible exception of Japanese southpaw Yusei Kikuchi, who was posted by the Seibu Lions of Nippon Professional Baseball yesterday. Of the bunch, Keuchel is subject to draft-pick compensation for a new team after rejecting a one-year, $17.9MM qualifying offer from the Astros. Both Happ and Eovaldi would’ve been candidates for qualifying offers had they not been traded midseason, thus rendering them ineligible to receive one.
Soon to turn 31, Keuchel has been a workhorse in the Houston rotation over the past five seasons, pitching to a collective 3.28 ERA with 7.4 K/9, 2.4 BB/9, 0.8 HR/9 and a whopping 60 percent ground-ball rate that leads all qualified Major League starting pitchers in that time. Keuchel, a two-time All-Star and four-time Gold Glove winner, hasn’t been as dominant since winning the 2015 AL Cy Young Award, but he led the AL in starts last season and has turned in a sub-4.00 ERA in four of the past five seasons.
Eovaldi, 29 in February, returned from Tommy John surgery with a flourish in 2018, raising his free-agent stock more than perhaps any starting pitcher other than the aforementioned Corbin. He’s been most prominently connected to his hometown Astros and the Red Sox as of late — neither of whom figure to be thrilled with the concept of the Yankees making an increased push to sign the flamethrowing righty.
Happ, 36, is reported to have received interest from as many as 10 teams. Because his age suppresses the length of the contract he can reasonably be expected to land, Happ has drawn interest from clubs in all market sizes. The Brewers, Reds, Twins, Angels, Astros, Blue Jays and White Sox are among the clubs that have already been linked to Happ, to say nothing of previous connections to the Phils and Yanks — both of which now figure to increase with Corbin off the board.
Diamondbacks Sign Merrill Kelly To Two-Year Deal
8:13pm: The D-backs formally announced the signing via a press release.
5:43pm: The Diamondbacks are in agreement on a two-year, $5.5MM contract with right-hander Merrill Kelly, reports Jeff Passan of Yahoo Sports (Twitter links). The contract will pay Kelly $2MM in 2019 and $3MM in 2020. It also includes a pair of club options, per Passan, the first of which is valued at $4.25MM and comes with a $500K buyout. The second of the two options comes with a $5.25MM value, he adds.
Kelly, a 30-year-old righty, has never pitched in the Majors but just wrapped up a strong four-year run in the hitter-friendly Korea Baseball Organization. The former Rays farmhand has been particularly impressive over the past two seasons, during which time he has made 61 starts and tossed 390 1/3 innings of 3.64 ERA ball with 341 strikeouts (7.9 K/9) and 105 walks (2.4 BB/9). He’s being viewed as a starter and is expected to join the Diamondbacks’ rotation next season.
The Arizona rotation has taken a hit this winter with the loss of Patrick Corbin, who reportedly agreed to a six-year contract with the Nationals earlier today. Arizona will also be without Taijuan Walker for much of the 2019 season after the righty underwent Tommy John surgery earlier this year, and the D-backs also non-tendered Shelby Miller last week. The top names remaining in the Diamondbacks’ rotation mix include Zack Greinke, Robbie Ray, Zack Godley and perhaps Matt Andriese, though there’s been ample trade chatter surrounding the veteran Greinke this offseason.
While Kelly lacks big league experience, the contract is a rather low-risk investment for the Diamondbacks, who will hope that Kelly can be the 2019 version of the Cardinals’ Miles Mikolas. It’s the second consecutive season in which GM Mike Hazen and his staff have given a multi-year contract to a pitcher who has no MLB experience. Last winter’s two-year pact for right-hander Yoshihisa Hirano paid off in spades — 66 1/3 innings of 2.44 ERA ball out of the bullpen — and Kelly will bring another intriguing overseas track record at a minimal price.
Patrick Corbin Signing “Imminent”
2:40pm: Corbin is evidently nearing agreement, as Morosi tweets that a signing is “imminent.” He’s said to be lining up a six-year deal, though it’s not yet clear with what team.
With the Yankees only putting five years on the table, it seems they aren’t going to get the lefty, Morosi adds on Twitter.
10:55am: There’s still no marked movement on the bidding for free agent lefty Patrick Corbin, but we’re continuing to see indications that the action is building to a crescendo. With interest spiking in the top open-market hurler, Bob Nightengale of USA Today cites multiple league sources for the proposition that Corbin is expected to meet or exceed the contract value that Yu Darvish achieved last winter (Twitter link).
That level of payday is just what MLBTR predicted in ranking Corbin as the third-best free agent on this year’s market. At the time, that seemed a rather aggressive estimation of his value. More recently, though, some have wondered whether Corbin might not drive well past the Darvish deal (six years, $126MM).
How high the bidding will go remains to be seen. Indeed, it’s not yet fully clear whether Corbin will actually top Darvish, even if he can. Nightengale suggests it’s possible that Corbin might be asked to “take a discount” to end up with the Yankees, who could be looking to get the life-long fan of the Bronx Bombers to sign for less.
The precise strategy of the Yankees isn’t entirely clear; certainly, the organization could boost its bid if Corbin demands it and there’s a bigger offer on the table. Regardless, MLB.com’s Mark Feinsand notes on Twitter that the Yankees are still locked in on Corbin, though he reminds that they’ve also engaged in secondary targets. That more or less mirrors what GM Brian Cashman stated on the record last night.
If Corbin currently sits atop the New York priority list, it seems the same is true of the Phillies, as Scott Lauber of the Philadelphia Inquirer tweets. Indeed, some “rivals speculate” that the Phillies are the favorite, Andy Martino of SNY.tv tweets, though perhaps that can be said of most any of the team’s free agent targets this winter given its ample spending capacity and clear imperative to win. As Nightengale adds on Twitter, the Phillies seem to have made it clear to Corbin that they’ll top the rest of the market to get him.
Meanwhile, Nationals president of baseball operations Mike Rizzo offered plenty of his own indications of strong interest in Corbin, as MLB.com’s Jamal Collier was among those to report. “He’s a guy that obviously we’re interested in and would fit nicely on this team,” says Rizzo, who made clear that the club still has a somewhat traditional view of the value of rotation assets. “Starting pitching is king,” Rizzo says, leaving little doubt that the Nats are prime players for Corbin and other top arms.
MLBTR Chat Transcript
Click here to read a transcript of Tuesday’s chat with MLBTR’s Steve Adams.
Mets Expected To Hire Chili Davis As Hitting Coach
The Mets are expected to reach a deal with Chili Davis to make him the club’s next hitting coach, per Joel Sherman of the New York Post (via Twitter). He’ll replace Pat Roessler, who was dismissed after the 2018 campaign.
Davis, 58, turned in a highly productive 19-year MLB career in which he only failed to produce at a league-average or better rate over the course of a given season. Since, he has turned to teaching the craft to others. After stints at the lower levels of the Dodgers and Red Sox organizations, Davis became the A’s hitting coach in advance of the 2012 campaign.
Since taking the gig in Oakland, Davis has been a mainstay in the major-league coaching ranks. He has held the same position with the Red Sox and Cubs, though he lasted only a single season with the Chicago organization. Mets skipper Mickey Callaway now has a substantially revamped coaching staff to work with, led by just-added bench coach Jim Riggleman.
Latest On Bryce Harper
TODAY: Johnson has denied any recent meetings with Harper, leading to a significantly revised Yahoo report. It’s not entirely clear from the current version of the story whether the Dodgers have or will send a contingent to meet with Harper at all.
YESTERDAY: The Dodgers have held a sit-down with free agent superstar Bryce Harper, according to a report from Tim Brown and Jeff Passan of Yahoo Sports. It’s a must-read update on the still-developing market for one of the winter’s marquee free agents.
Of particular note, the Los Angeles behemoth has now made a notable foray into the Harper market — a possibility that was never quite clear but always tantalized. Minority owner and NBA legend Magic Johnson led a delegation to Harper’s home town of Las Vegas, suggesting at a minimum that pursuing Harper is a serious consideration for an organization that has not generally chased top free agents under president of baseball operations Andrew Friedman.
At the outset of the offseason, we did predict that Harper would land with the Dodgers, and score a massive contract in the process. But that was anything but a high-probability prediction, as the outfielder’s market was then and remains difficult to assess in the usual manner. Harper, after all, is a rather unique commodity. Like fellow free agent Manny Machado, he’s an established star who only recently turned 26 years of age. Both players also have their blemishes, to be sure, but the talent ceilings and volume of potentially prime seasons are, in both cases, immense.
Thus it is that, as the Yahoo duo report, “upward of a dozen” organizations across the league have or likely will follow Magic in a Vegas road trip to chat with Harper. The Yankees are among them, despite a litany of reports suggesting they won’t pursue this particular opportunity, while the Phillies are an unsurprising club in the market as well.
We’ve heard plenty about the White Sox to date, of course, but the seriousness of their pursuit has been tough to gauge. According to Yahoo, the South Siders have dispatched Jim Thome and others to help woo Harper to a rebuilding situation. Other possibilities abound, with the Cubs, Padres, Astros, and Cardinals all tabbed as teams with at least speculative potential interest. (That’s all in addition to the incumbent Nats, of course.)
The report cautions that these early visits don’t necessarily signal an all-in commitment to chase the market on Harper. Certainly, it’s worth bearing in mind that the teams are still assessing their respective levels of interest. Still, it seems promising for Harper that he has drawn this much focus from nearly half the teams in baseball — particularly given that they’re all already aware that he reportedly turned down a $300MM offer to stay in DC.
There was never any doubt, of course, that he’d be heavily pursued. But there are relatively few big-spending teams with clear-cut needs in the corner outfield, making it tough to guess at interest based upon team need and even historical spending patterns. It seems, though, that there are at least quite a few teams that are willing to assign significant resources to assess whether Harper is enough of an asset, on and off the field, to warrant not only an enormous outlay but also some roster maneuvering to fit.
Offseason Outlook: Milwaukee Brewers
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The Brewers went from a near-miss in the 2017 postseason to a deep NLCS run against the Dodgers in 2018. With much of the core under control, general manager David Stearns and the rest of the Milwaukee front office will look to push the roster to the next level in 2019.
Guaranteed Contracts
- Lorenzo Cain, OF: $66MM through 2022
- Ryan Braun, OF: $38MM through 2020 (includes $4MM buyout of 2021 mutual option)
- Christian Yelich, OF: $37.5MM through 2021 (includes $1.25MM buyout of 2022 club option)
- Eric Thames, 1B/OF: $7MM through 2019 (includes $1MM buyout of 2020 club option)
- Chase Anderson, RHP: $6.5MM through 2019 (includes $500K buyout of 2020 club option; contract also contains 2021 club option)
- Jhoulys Chacin, RHP: $6MM through 2019
- Jeremy Jeffress, RHP: $3.175MM through 2019 (contract contains 2020 club option)
- Matt Albers, RHP: $2.5MM through 2019
- Erik Kratz, C: $1.5MM through 2019 (as a pre-tender arbitration contract, Kratz’s deal is not fully guaranteed)
Arbitration-Eligible Players (service time in parentheses; salary projections via MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz)
- Travis Shaw (3.088) – $5.1MM
- Corey Knebel (3.151) – $4.9MM
- Jimmy Nelson (4.107) – $3.7MM
- Hernan Perez (4.079) – $2.7MM
- Junior Guerra (2.155) – $2.7MM
- Zach Davies (3.020) – $2.4MM
- Domingo Santana (3.024) – $2.0MM
- Manny Pina (3.046) – $1.8MM
- Tyler Saladino (3.053) – $1.0MM
[Brewers depth chart | Brewers current payroll outlook | Brewers payroll projection analysis]
Free Agents
- Jonathan Schoop, Gio Gonzalez, Mike Moustakas, Joakim Soria, Wade Miley, Curtis Granderson, Jordan Lyles, Xavier Cedeno, Dan Jennings, Stephen Vogt, Eric Sogard
Generally speaking, there aren’t going to be a lot of holes to fill for a 96-win team that stands to retain the vast majority of its top players, but that’s perhaps less so in the case of these Brewers. Milwaukee’s outfield is set, if not overcrowded, but the Brewers’ infield, catching and rotation pictures all present the opportunity for improvement.
The Brewers bit the bullet and non-tendered Jonathan Schoop — a supposedly key trade-deadline acquisition who instead flopped in his limited time in Milwaukee. With Mike Moustakas, whose midseason acquisition was much more successful, hitting the open market and Orlando Arcia still not fully cemented as an everyday player in the big leagues, the Brewers could pursue multiple avenues to solidifying their infield mix.
Travis Shaw has proven a quality third baseman for the past two seasons in Milwaukee, but he shifted to second base at times when the club added Moustakas to the fold. Presumably, given the fact that Shaw grades out as a strong defender at the hot corner, the Brewers wish to return him to third base. At the very least, Milwaukee could stand to add a second baseman, where utilityman Hernan Perez currently tops the depth chart. Fortunately for the Brewers, there’s hardly a shortage of options available to them.
Frankly, it’s possible to imagine a variety of approaches, including the addition of multiple pieces that will see action at multiple positions. Super-utilityman Marwin Gonzalez would be an intriguing fit, and he’s certainly familiar to Stearns. But he may well cost more than the Brewers wish to pay. It’s not hard to imagine Stearns looking to find his own such player at a more palatable rate of pay.
DJ LeMahieu and Jed Lowrie head up a deep free-agent crop of second basemen. The former would bring some relative youth and premium defense to the position; the latter, meanwhile, is coming off a career-best season and offers more defensive versatility, though Lowrie will play next season at age 35. With top prospect Keston Hiura already reaching Double-A, the Brewers probably don’t feel the need to spend heavily on a long-term option at second base, and likely won’t be forced to in this market. Any of Brian Dozier, Daniel Murphy, Ian Kinsler or Asdrubal Cabrera could presumably be had on short-term pacts (in some cases, even one-year deals), and the trade market also features myriad options. Starlin Castro and Cesar Hernandez could be shorter-term options, while someone such as Arizona’s Ketel Marte is a longer-term piece who has the versatility to move to a utility role if Hiura pushes him off the spot. Stearns is never shy on the trade market, and he’ll have ample avenues to explore in that regard.
At shortstop, the need is less acute. Arcia was one of the game’s worst hitters in the first half of the season, but the former top prospect returned from a brief demotion to hit .290/.320/.386 in his final 154 plate appearances before hitting .333/.353/.606 in 34 trips to the plate in the postseason. Given his strong defensive ratings at short, his once-premium prospect pedigree and the fact that he’s headed into his age-24 season, there’s reason to believe that Arcia can hold down the fort in 2019 at the very least — if not blossom into a close approximation of the player he was projected to be when ranked as a top 10 prospect in the entire game. If anything, perhaps a glove-first utility option to support Arcia could make sense — someone in the mold of Freddy Galvis.
For a second consecutive offseason, the Brewers could explore the market for help behind the plate. Manny Pina regressed in most offensive respects in 2018, but to his credit, he improved substantially in terms of pitch framing, pitch blocking and halting stolen bases. Pina turned in a terrific defensive season but hit just .252/.307/.395. At present, he’s projected to pair with affable veteran Erik Kratz, who hit .236/.280/.355 while serving as a fan favorite and clubhouse leader. It’s a defensively sound pairing but one that also lacks much offensive upside. If the Brewers want to again try to pry a Marlins star out of Miami, they’d be a fairly natural landing spot for J.T. Realmuto, who’d bring a more well-rounded approach to the table. To date, there’s no real indication of how high a priority the club places on improving in this area, but there are quite a few other plausible targets floating around the market at different price points.
Turning to the pitching staff, Stearns and his lieutenants did well to prove that the public outcry for more rotation help last offseason was exaggerated. The Brewers will welcome Jimmy Nelson back to a starting staff that should feature a combination of Jhoulys Chacin, Chase Anderson, Zach Davies, Junior Guerra, Freddy Peralta, Brandon Woodruff and Corbin Burnes. It’s a quality mix of arms with some significant upside in the form of Nelson and Burnes. The standard adage that one can never have too much starting pitching always applies, and acquiring a clear top-of-the-rotation arm could allow the Brewers to deal from that depth to address other needs, but an impact starter is far more a luxury than a necessity for Milwaukee this winter. Milwaukee has often been mentioned as a possible landing spot for Sonny Gray, which would deepen that mix and add some potential upside to an already promising group. There’s also certainly an argument the Brewers should go bigger if they’re to make a move. The club has been connected to Noah Syndergaard, though that seems a remote possibility.
In the bullpen, the Brewers will return much of the unit that proved to be arguably the club’s greatest strength in 2018. Josh Hader, Corey Knebel and Jeremy Jeffress were an utterly dominant trio at the back of the Milwaukee ‘pen for much of the season. The latter of that group may have worn down a bit in the postseason, but without the Herculean regular-season efforts of any of that threesome, the Brewers may not have been in the playoffs at all. They’ll likely be joined by veteran Matt Albers, Jacob Barnes and at least one of the rotation candidates who doesn’t end up winning a starting job this spring. But the Brewers could stand to strengthen an existing strength — particularly in the form of a left-handed reliever. Zach Britton and Andrew Miller are the top free agents out there, but Stearns hasn’t spent heavily on the ‘pen in free agency since taking the reins in Milwaukee. The market has some bargain options and upside plays in the form of Oliver Perez, Zach Duke, Tyler Lyons and Jake Diekman, among others. An affordable southpaw option to pair with Hader, the resident late-inning juggernaut, would seem prudent.
Beyond filling out those needs, however, the Brewers face some surpluses with which to deal. The Brew Crew was happy to stockpile outfielders last season, knowing that players like Keon Broxton and Domingo Santana had minor league options remaining and could be shuttled back and forth from Triple-A to the Majors as needed. That won’t be the case next season, and with Yelich, Cain and Braun lined up in the outfield — Braun possesses a no-trade clause — the front office will have to make some tough decisions. Both Santana and Broxton are out of minor league options, making them obvious trade candidates this winter. Either could be used to help address the bullpen, infield or catching situations. With three and four years of club control left, respectively, neither is an extremely long-term asset, but they could very well still hold appeal to organizations such as the Indians, White Sox, and Giants that are in need of some outfield options.
It seems likely that Eric Thames will also see his name bandied about the rumor circuit this offseason. Jesus Aguilar‘s ascension to primary first baseman and the outfield logjam have left Thames as something of an odd man out. It doesn’t help that the former KBO star took a step backward in his second season back in the Majors, hitting .219/.306/.478 in 278 plate appearances. Thames’ overall .237/.341/.504 slash in two seasons as a Brewer is still productive, though, and for a club seeking an affordable first base or corner outfield option (e.g. Twins, Rockies), the lefty slugger could be a reasonable target.
As MLBTR contributor Rob Huff noted in analyzing the Brewers’ payroll, the current roster construction leaves Milwaukee with around $15MM to spend — based on historically plausible payroll expectations in Milwaukee. However, moving someone such as Thames, Santana or Albers could create a bit of extra room. Beyond that, given a deep playoff run in 2018, perhaps owner Mark Attanasio will be content to push the envelope a bit further in terms of what he’ll spend on the 2019 roster.
Fortunately, the Brewers are lacking in a clear, glaring need. The rotation could be improved, but Nelson’s return and the emergence of Burnes, Peralta and Woodruff create a deep reservoir of arms from which to draw. Arcia showed signs of life at shortstop late in the season, and a short-term addition could bridge the second-base gap to Hiura. Neither Pina nor Kratz is a highly exciting option behind the dish, but it’s a sturdy enough pairing to support a young pitching staff. The bullpen’s top three spots are locked in, and some of the rotation mix figures to join the group.
None of that is to say that the Brewers don’t need to or won’t make some additions to bolster their chances in 2019. They assuredly will. But, rather than zero in on one specific area of need, Stearns and his staff can take a broad, value-based approach to looking at the best ways to improve the current collection of talent. That general tact has paid dividends (and produced surprises) over the past two seasons, so it’ll be interesting to see what the front office comes up with this time around.
Tigers Sign Matt Moore
DECEMBER 4: The deal has now been announced.
NOVEMBER 27, 7:06pm: The guarantee is $2.5MM, Chris Cotillo of MassLive.com tweets. The contract also includes $1MM in potential incentives.
12:18pm: The Tigers and left-hander Matt Moore are in agreement on a one-year deal, reports Yahoo’s Jeff Passan (Twitter link). Mark Feinsand of MLB.com had indicated that the two sides were in talks just prior to that report (also via Twitter). Specific parameters aren’t clear, but Feinsand and Passan both suggest Moore would be looking at a guarantee in the range of $2-3MM. The deal is pending a physical. Moore is represented by Sosnick, Cobbe & Karon.
Moore, still just 29, has struggled through a pair of awful seasons and would be a buy-low option for the Detroit rotation. Once considered the best pitching prospect in the game — Baseball America rated Bryce Harper, Moore and Mike Trout the game’s top three overall prospects prior to the 2012 season — Moore’s career came to a screeching halt in 2014 when he underwent Tommy John surgery.
To that point, Moore had amassed 347 big league innings with a 3.53 ERA, 8.8 K/9, 4.3 BB/9 and 0.9 HR/9 all before celebrating his 25th birthday. Moore struggled in his return from the ligament replacement procedure late in the 2015 campaign but gave some reason for optimism when he tossed a career-high 198 1/3 innings of 4.08 ERA ball in 2016. His velocity hadn’t quite returned to its peak levels but was on the upswing, and Moore looked to be on the path to reestablishing himself.
Unfortunately for both Moore and the Giants — who acquired him from the Rays midway through that solid 2016 campaign — the left-hander completely unraveled in 2017. Since Opening Day that season, he’s been clobbered for a 5.99 ERA in 276 1/3 innings of work. Moore has averaged 10.7 hits and 1.5 home runs per nine innings pitched during that time, and his strikeout rate has fallen sharply (7.5 K/9). Over the past two seasons, he ranks 123rd of 125 pitchers in ERA (min. 200 innings), 107th in FIP and 117th in xFIP.
Those struggles won’t matter much to the Tigers, who are hoping to catch lightning in a bottle with the once-vaunted left-hander. Moore will slide into the back of a rotation that will be devoid of any expectations. Michael Fulmer, Jordan Zimmermann, Matthew Boyd and Daniel Norris are the top candidates to join Moore in manager Ron Gardenhire’s rotation next year, though the Detroit organization has an extremely promising wave of starting pitching prospects on the horizon. Matt Manning, Franklin Perez, Beau Burrows and 2018 No. 1 overall draft pick Casey Mize are all rising through the ranks and could soon arrive to give the rebuilding Tigers some hope for years to come.
In the meantime, Detroit will turn to low-risk stopgaps like Moore (and, a year prior, Mike Fiers and Francisco Liriano) in hopes of extracting some quality innings at a reasonable price point. Should they succeed in this instance, Moore will quickly become a trade chip next June or July.
Mets Brass On Cano/Diaz Trade, Next Steps
The Mets held a fascinating press conference today to introduce recent acquisitions Robinson Cano and Edwin Diaz — players who the organization clearly sees as major pieces of the club’s next winning roster. MLB.com’s Anthony DiComo was among the reporters to cover the festivities; all links below are to his Twitter feed unless otherwise noted.
New Mets GM Brodie Van Wagenen offered soaring thoughts on the occasion of his first major move with the club. “I stated that this organization intended to be relentless and fearless in the pursuit of greatness,” he said. “This trade should be a signal to our fans that words alone will not define our franchise.”
Getting a deal done was spurred not only by the team’s own direct interest, but also by a desire to land Diaz before the Phillies could do so. COO Jeff Wilpon indicated the presence of the division rivals in the bidding helped drive the talks. The Phillies ultimately balked at including their best young pitching in a deal for Diaz, Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic reports (subscription link). Ultimately, they struck a separate deal for shortstop Jean Segura.
Van Wagenen explained further that an “all-consuming” push over the past ten days or so led to a deal. Though Mariners GM Jerry Dipoto had said he was “inclined to hold onto Diaz” and “told us no a number of times,” the Mets “kept staying on it, kept trying to be aggressive on it” and ultimately made a match after batting around numerous deal possibilities.
Unsurprisingly, the addition of an aging but still-excellent player in Cano and a top-shelf young closer in Diaz seem to portend yet more acquisitions. As Van Wagenen put it, the Mets “did not make this move to be our last move.” Wilpon went into further detail, offering up some internal perspective on the club’s status. The team’s own analytical staff see this move as taking the club from an 83 to 84 win team to one that is a true-talent, upper-eighties outfit. With “a couple more things,” he suggested, “maybe we can be 90-plus.”
As ever, payroll remains a factor. This deal is cash-neutral for the 2019 season, though it does add future dollars. And as ever, there’s an opportunity cost — in this case, long-term spending capacity and the loss of young talent. But the Mets evidently feel they can continue to boost their competitiveness.
Wilpon chatted about the Mets’ financials, explaining that the ongoing efforts to work out a settlement on the insurance coverage for David Wright will hopefully soon result in a deal. Even if the funds won’t come in a lump sum, “some of that will go back to payroll.” Meanwhile, though the coverage on outfielder Yoenis Cespedes is said to be a “little bit less” than the 75% coverage the Mets have on Wright’s salary, there could be some funds flowing back for his absence as well.
It’s still not clear how high the Mets will go in an Opening Day payroll. The club has yet to crack the $155MM barrier to start a season, though even that mark would seem to leave room to spend. Of course, there are still quite a few obvious needs on the roster — as we covered in breaking down the Mets’ offseason outlook. Most notably, the club has a variety of bullpen openings to account for and could still pursue upgrades in the outfield, behind the dish, and perhaps also in the infield mix.
One possibility that has popped up on the rumor mill in recent weeks is a trade involving starter Noah Syndergaard, presumably with intentions of adding multiple youthful assets who could join a still-developing core. The early explorations evidently have not shown promise of resulting in a deal, however, as the Mets now say they are strongly leaning against moving Thor. Per Van Wagenen, only under “very special circumstances” would he “even consider” trading a pitcher who, at his best, is among the top hurlers in all of baseball.
Needless to say, there’s tons to digest from this presser. Taken in conjunction with the trade itself, it sets up the Mets for a fascinating upcoming trip to Vegas for the Winter Meetings.