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Quick Hits: Osiel Rodriguez, Gloves, Framing

By Kyle Downing | November 11, 2017 at 12:10pm CDT

15-year-old right-hander Osiel Rodriguez may be the top international pitching prospect in the 2018 class, Ben Badler of Baseball America writes. The young Cuban pitcher threw 96 MPH at the Nations Baseball Showcase this past Thursday, striking out three of the five hitters he faced while retiring the other two on ground balls. Rodriguez threw 13 of his 17 pitches for strikes at the showcase. Badler notes that Rodriguez led Cuba’s 15U league with a 0.39 ERA across 69 innings in 2016 while striking out 127 hitters. He is eligible to sign beginning on July 2nd of 2018 and will certainly garner heavy attention from MLB teams.

Some other items across MLB…

In another piece at Baseball America, Tim Newcomb sheds some light on the work of Ryan Smith (product manager for Wilson baseball gloves) to continually evolve the “colors, patterns, lengths, designs or features” of gloves. The trends are defined mostly by the needs of MLB’s top players. “There is no way we could be as good as we are if we didn’t have pros so in tune with their glove working on their craft daily and giving us feedback,” Smith says. The piece mentions Todd Frazier, Dustin Pedroia and Ivan Rodriguez as players who have had particular influence on Wilson’s products.
Framing data is flooding baseball, Jeff Sullivan of Fangraphs opines. The standard deviation between framing runs accrued by MLB teams has declined significantly over the past ten seasons, as Sullivan shows us. Also in his piece are graphs depicting called strikes above average; graphs which show that year-to-year relationships are disintegrating. “A good framer in 2016 was still likely to look like a good framer in 2017, but that couldn’t be said with very much confidence. The data is getting increasingly random,” Sullivan writes. The piece is fascinating for anyone interested in advanced defensive statistics and baseball trends.

Featured image courtesy of USA Today Sports Images

East Notes: Mets, Red Sox, Orioles

By Kyle Downing | November 11, 2017 at 10:53am CDT

Following a 92-loss season, the Mets will reimagine the way they use their pitching staff, says Marc Carig of newsday.com. The so-called “philosophical shift” may in part be driven by the Mets’ recent hire of former Indians pitching coach Mickey Callaway as their new manager. According to one of Carig’s sources, Mets starters not named Noah Syndergaard or Jacob deGrom may be shielded from facing lineups more than twice through the order, following a continuing trend throughout the league. In order to compensate for potentially fewer innnings from their starters, the Amazins plan to employ an eight man bullpen. The dramatic change in plans comes after the team posted a 5.01 combined ERA (the second-worst mark in the National League in 2017) despite watching deGrom finish as one of the best pitchers in all of baseball. Carig lays out the opponent OPS for each Mets pitcher per times through the batting order as well.

Central Notes: Santana, DeJong, Cubs

By Kyle Downing | November 11, 2017 at 9:10am CDT

Although outgoing Royal Eric Hosmer is a clear bet to take home the largest contract among first basemen this winter, Travis Sawchik of Fangraphs suspects that career Indians first baseman Carlos Santana will outperform Hosmer for at least the next three years. While Hosmer is younger than Santana and had a better 2017 season by fWAR, Sawchik notes that Santana’s primary skill (his batting eye) is a better bet to age well than any other skill that either player brings to the table. Hosmer has also posted negative fWAR totals in two of his major league seasons; something Santana has never done. Worth mentioning: Santana was worth a total of 21.2 fWAR from 2011-2017, while Hosmer was worth a mere 9.9.

Elsewhere across baseball’s central divisions…

The offseason for Cardinals’ shortstop Paul DeJong will be an interesting one. As CBS2’s Steve Overmyer reported from New York on Thursday, DeJong has joined renowned scientist Dr. Lawrence Rocks in a lab study about the effects of heat and weather on baseball flight distance. Early returns in the study seem to indicate that while baseballs are likely to travel shorter distances as temperatures get colder, they are also likely to travel shorter distances if temperatures increase past a certain point. “As you decrease temperature, you get less bounce, like an automobile tire on a very cold day – it’s a little more brittle,” Rocks said. “As you increase temperature, the elastomeres get a little mooshy; you get less bounce.”
While Cubs GM Jed Hoyer has declined to comment on his team’s pursuit of Shohei Ohtani, Patrick Mooney of NBC Sports Chicago suggests a plan of attack for the team in trying to acquire the Japanese ace. While bringing an end to “The Curse” is no longer a selling point (as it may have been to Jon Lester and some others, according to Mooney), Chicago still has plenty to offer as a city. Hoyer will be working hard to put together a more attractive pitch to Ohtani and his agents than the other 29 MLB teams that will be vying for the two-way star’s services.

Angels Prioritizing Offensive Upgrades

By Connor Byrne | November 10, 2017 at 10:47pm CDT

The Angels are not aiming to make a big splash in the pitching market this offseason, general manager Billy Eppler tells Jeff Fletcher of the Orange County Register. While the team will be “keeping an eye open” on available starters and relievers, Eppler’s focus is on upgrading an offense that finished 22nd in the majors in runs last season.

The Angels will “look for value, similar to what we did last year,” with regard to pitchers, Eppler said. The Eppler-led Halos only handed out two guaranteed contracts to pitchers last winter – $5.75MM to swingman Jesse Chavez and $1MM to reliever Andrew Bailey – neither of which worked out as hoped. On the other hand, Los Angeles struck gold when it claimed reliever Blake Parker off waivers and signed fellow relievers Yusmeiro Petit and Bud Norris to minor league contracts. Only one of those three, Parker, remains under club control heading into next season. Eppler isn’t sure whether the Angels will bring either Petit or Norris back, per Fletcher, who notes that they already have most of their 2018 bullpen in place with Parker, Cam Bedrosian, Jose Alvarez, Keynan Middleton, Noe Ramirez and Blake Wood on hand.

The Angels also have a variety of in-house rotation possibilities in Garrett Richards, Andrew Heaney, Tyler Skaggs, Matt Shoemaker, Nick Tropeano, Parker Bridwell and J.C. Ramirez, leading to Eppler’s confidence that a big-money addition isn’t necessary (notably, Eppler wasn’t willing to discuss a potential Shohei Ohtani pursuit, as he’s technically not a free agent yet). Although injuries marred the seasons of Richards, Heaney, Skaggs, Shoemaker, Ramirez and Tropeano (who didn’t pitch at all while recovering from 2016 Tommy John surgery), Fletcher relays that the only member of that group who hasn’t yet gotten medical clearance going into next year is Ramirez – whose 2017 ended in August on account of elbow soreness. The 29-year-old right-hander, who led all Angels holdovers in innings last season (142 1/3), will undergo an ultrasound on his elbow late this month, according to Fletcher.

While the Angels seem largely content with their pitchers, they could add at least one notable outsider to their group of position players, even after they managed to prevent left fielder Justin Upton from leaving in free agency. Along with Upton, center fielder Mike Trout, right fielder Kole Calhoun, shortstop Andrelton Simmons, designated hitter Albert Pujols and catcher Martin Maldonado figure to reprise their starting roles in 2018. That leaves the corner infield (either first or third, depending on where Luis Valbuena slots in) and second base ripe for upgrades.

The keystone looks like an especially big need, Fletcher observes, after Angels second basemen limped to a ghastly .207/.274/.318 batting line and a major league-worst 60 wRC+ last season. With Eppler looking for players who are adept at getting on base, previous trade target and current free agent Neil Walker (.362 OBP in 2017, .341 career) looks like someone who may pique the Angels’ interest, as MLBTR’s Mark Polishuk previously suggested when previewing their offseason in late October. And there are several possibilities LA could acquire via trade, including the Marlins’ Dee Gordon, whom it was interested in over the summer.

As for the corner infield, Eric Hosmer, Carlos Santana Logan Morrison, Yonder Alonso, Lucas Duda are at the top of the free agent class at first base (MLBTR projects the Angels to land Alonso). Alternatively, tthe Halos could hand the reins to Valbuena and C.J. Cron at first and and go for a third baseman, whether it’s Los Angeles native Mike Moustakas, Todd Frazier, Eduardo Nunez or Zack Cozart (if he’s willing to move off shortstop) in free agency or another player via trade.

Latest On Giancarlo Stanton: Talks Between Marlins, 4 Teams

By Connor Byrne | November 10, 2017 at 9:39pm CDT

The Red Sox, Cardinals, Giants and Phillies are early contenders to put together a trade for Marlins superstar Giancarlo Stanton, Jon Morosi of MLB Network reports (on Twitter). There has been “preliminary communication” regarding the right fielder between each of those teams and the Marlins, according to Morosi, who adds that talks are likely to “intensify” at next week’s general managers meetings.

With the Marlins primed to slash payroll under new owners Bruce Sherman and Derek Jeter, Stanton stands out as their most obvious trade candidate. The 2017 major league home run king (59) and National League MVP finalist is owed either $295MM through 2028 or $77MM through 2020, depending on whether he exercises his opt-out clause. The amount of money left on the contract, the opt-out and Stanton’s full no-trade rights could combine to make a trade rather complicated. But the 27-year-old Stanton’s no-trade clause may not be a major hindrance, given that he is fed up with losing and would like to join a contender. The Marlins appear poised to embark on a lengthy rebuild, so it seems doubtful Stanton would stand in the way of a deal if he feels the acquiring team would give him a chance to play meaningful games into the fall – something he hasn’t done since bursting on the big league scene in 2010.

While the Marlins have never even posted an above-.500 season during Stanton’s eight-year career, the Red Sox, Cardinals and Giants have typically served as contenders during that span (though San Francisco’s coming off a major league-worst 68-win season). The Phillies, meanwhile, have finished toward the bottom of the NL East for five years running, but several of their young players showed progress in 2017, and the club figures to return to its high-spending ways when it’s officially ready to leave its own long rebuild behind. Stanton reportedly wasn’t willing to waive his NTC to go to Philadelphia as of late in the season, though, and it could also hurt the team’s cause that it shares a division with the Marlins, who would have to face the p.r. backlash of dealing the face of their franchise to a close rival.

As with the Phillies, there are reasons why a Stanton acquisition would and wouldn’t work for each of the other three suitors (and several other teams), as MLBTR’s Jeff Todd deftly laid out on Thursday. Regardless of whether the Marlins ultimately send him to one of the four front-runners or another club, the Stanton sweepstakes will go down as one of the most fascinating sagas of the offseason.

Latest On Diamondbacks, J.D. Martinez

By Connor Byrne | November 10, 2017 at 8:56pm CDT

The Diamondbacks’ odds of re-signing free agent right fielder J.D. Martinez already looked low even before a report emerged Wednesday that he’s seeking a contract worth around $200MM in guarantees. The team’s chances of keeping the star slugger seemingly took another hit Friday when CEO Derrick Hall announced that its payroll won’t significantly climb in 2018.

“You’re not talking about $10 million,” Hall said of a potential spending increase (via Nick Piecoro of the Arizona Republic). That’s not to say the Diamondbacks won’t increase their payroll at all, however. There could be wiggle room for them to add a few million in payroll as the offseason moves along and club gets a clearer picture of its anticipated revenue.

Arizona hasn’t opened a season above the $100MM mark since 2014, though it did close each of the past two years above that figure. Now, thanks largely to guaranteed money owed to five veterans (Zack Greinke, Yasmany Tomas, Paul Goldschmidt, Jeff Mathis and Daniel Descalso) and arbitration projections for 14 other players, the Diamondbacks are already in the $120MM range for 2018 without having added any new players, per an estimate from Jason Martinez of MLBTR and Roster Resource.

All signs are pointing toward J.D. Martinez’s exit via the open market, though Hall did say Friday that the Diamondbacks are “going to be aggressive for, really, any and all players that can help us,” adding that they’re “taking a strong look” at the 30-year-old (via Steve Gilbert of MLB.com). Martinez’s agent, Scott Boras, suggested Wednesday that he expects the Diamondbacks to be serious contenders to sign his client. But Hall revealed on Friday that there have not been any discussions between the club and Boras since Martinez hired him as his new representative Nov. 1.

“(We had) some good conversations (before free agency began) and since then he’s sought new representation, so things have changed from those initial conversations,” Hall said. “But J.D. is such a great guy and we’re just glad to know that he enjoyed his time here because we enjoyed him being here, too.”

After Arizona acquired Martinez from Detroit in a mid-July trade, he batted an all-world .302/.366/.741 with 29 home runs in 232 plate appearances to emerge as one of the most effective midseason pickups of all-time. That dazzling second-half output helped the Diamondbacks to a 93-69 finish and their first playoff berth since 2011, and Boras is well aware of it.

“High atop the MLB Empire rests the King Kong of Slug — a 50-point lead,” Boras said of the slugging percentage Martinez posted in Arizona (Twitter link via Jon Morosi of MLB Network). “That’s how dominant J.D. Kong is.”

NL Notes: Cobb, Cubs, Marlins, Mets, Reds

By Connor Byrne | November 10, 2017 at 8:01pm CDT

In an appearance on MLB Network Radio on Friday, free agent right-hander Alex Cobb spoke highly of Cubs manager Joe Maddon and pitching coach Jim Hickey, as Patrick Mooney of NBC Sports Chicago details. Cobb spent the first seven years of his career in Tampa Bay, where he played under Maddon (2011-14) and Hickey (through 2017), which has led to speculation that the Cubs will pursue him in free agency. On the possibility of joining the Cubs and reuniting with Maddon and Hickey, Cobb said, “Obviously, if we move down the line and we’re able to have some discussions with them, I’d be very honored to be able to talk with them and hopefully come to a deal.”

Before Cobb’s eligible to sign with the Cubs or another team, he’ll have to reject the Rays’ $17.4MM qualifying offer, which he hinted he’ll do when he said, “You’re talking about, hopefully, a decision that’s going to impact the next five years of your life. Based on that comment, it seems Cobb is seeking a five-year deal (MLBTR is projecting he’ll land a four-year arrangement), though he insisted that he’ll prioritize team success over money. “I’ve been through both. I’ve been through losing seasons and I’ve been through winning seasons,” he stated. “And the amount of joy that winning brings to us – it can’t be replaced by a dollar figure.”

AL Notes: Choo, Rangers, BoSox, M’s, Ichiro, Orioles

By Connor Byrne | November 10, 2017 at 6:38pm CDT

Outfielder/designated hitter Shin-Soo Choo is a “luxury” the Rangers can’t afford, opines the Dallas Morning News’ Evan Grant, who contends that the team should shop the 35-year-old in hopes of improving elsewhere. Choo has an onerous contract, though, as he’s owed $62MM through 2020, so the Rangers’ best hope might be flipping him for another team’s unappealing deal, Grant writes. With that in mind, Grant lists three right-handers signed through 2020 – the Tigers’ Jordan Zimmermann ($74MM remaining on his pact), the Royals’ Ian Kennedy ($49MM) and the Reds’ Homer Bailey ($49MM, including a $5MM buyout in 2020) – as players the starter-needy Rangers could potentially acquire in exchange for Choo. Notably, Choo spent the 2013 campaign in Cincinnati and thrived, which helped pave the way for him to sign a seven-year, $130MM pact with the Rangers in the ensuing offseason.

AL Central Notes: Kinsler, Kintzler, White Sox

By Steve Adams | November 10, 2017 at 4:29pm CDT

The results of this year’s Gold Glove Awards voting came in earlier this week, and in the American League it was Brian Dozier taking home his first career Gold Glove at second base. Dozier took home a standard $25K bonus for that distinction, but the more notable financial component of the award is that Tigers second baseman Ian Kinsler did not take home the $1MM bonus he’d have received for capturing a second Gold Glove honor. Kinsler’s 2017 option vested based on plate appearances back in September, but his salary would’ve risen from $11MM to $12MM had he landed the extra hardware. The $1MM difference in his salary won’t have much of an impact on his overall trade stock, but it’s still of minor note for both the Tigers and interested parties as Detroit explores trade scenarios for its longtime second baseman this winter.

Nippon Ham Fighters Announce They Will Allow Shohei Ohtani To Move To Majors

By Jeff Todd | November 10, 2017 at 2:53pm CDT

2:53pm: FanRag’s Jon Heyman tweets that, unsurprisingly, the Fighters will set the posting fee for Ohtani at the $20MM maximum. However, while MLB will sign off on the deal, Heyman notes that the Players Association still has some issues to work through before it will also sign off. Among their concerns, per Heyman, is the fact that the Fighters will recoup $20MM for Ohtani while the player himself stands to be paid only a mere fraction of that amount.

Heyman doesn’t suggest that the Union’s concerns will necessarily jeopardize Ohtani’s ability to make the jump to the Majors or that they could lead to a significant alteration in the current structure of the posting system. It’s unclear when the MLBPA will ultimately sign off, but it seems that their trepidation could delay the process to some extent.

7:13am: The Nippon Ham Fighters announced that they will allow star pitcher/slugger Shohei Ohtani* to come to the majors via the posting system, as the Japan Times was among the outlets to report.

That does not quite make things official, as Major League Baseball and Nippon Professional Baseball continue to try to sort out the rules that will govern the move. The effort had come into some notable difficulties, though Ohtani’s decision to hire a MLB Player’s Association-certified agent was expected to . And it seems the two leagues, at least, have reached agreement on a framework that could help facilitate Ohtani’s move — so long as his representatives, the MLBPA, and the Fighters are all on board.

At a minimum, today’s news seemingly formalizes the Fighters’ commitment to allowing Ohtani to depart. “Everyone in our ballclub accepts his thoughts,” said Fighters skipper Hideki Kuriyama. That also figures to ratchet up the expectations and the pressures on all other interested parties, helping to maintain momentum toward a finalization of talks — which will only represent the beginning of what could be a fascinating process.

[Related: Scouting Shohei Ohtani]

None of the talks will address Ohtani’s own earning capacity, which will be quite slight — at least on his way into the league. That’s the major reason that he promises to be the most widely pursued player ever to hit the open market. With only a few clubs even able to offer him more than $1MM in a bonus, the decision will surely come down to other factors, the precise nature of which — hitting opportunities? geography? comfort? promotional opportunities? promises of a future extension? — remain to be learned.

*Astute readers will note that MLBTR has now adopted a new spelling. Previously, for a variety of reasons, we utilized the anglicization “Otani.” We have now confirmed, however, that the spelling “Ohtani” is the formal spelling likely to be utilized in his potential transition to the majors.

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