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Each MLB Team’s Players On WBC Rosters

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The World Baseball Classic is returning this year, the first time since 2017. The quadrennial event was supposed to take place in 2021 but was scuttled by the pandemic, now returning after a six-year absence. Rosters for the tournament were announced today and those can be found at this link. Here is a breakdown of which players from each MLB team are set to take participate. Quick caveat that this list is fluid and might be changed as more information becomes available.

Without further ado…

Angels

Astros

Athletics

Blue Jays

Braves

Brewers

Cardinals

Cubs

Diamondbacks

Dodgers

Giants

Guardians

Marlins

Mariners

Mets

Nationals

Orioles

Padres

Phillies

Pirates

Rangers

Rays

Red Sox

Reds

Rockies

Royals

Tigers

Twins

White Sox

Yankees

Falvey: Bullpen Upgrades “Not A Priority”

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The Twins have been active this offseason, re-signing Carlos Correa while bringing in new faces such as Pablo López, Joey Gallo, Christian Vázquez, Michael A. Taylor and Kyle Farmer. Things have been relatively quiet in terms of the bullpen, however, and it doesn’t seem as though that’s going to change in the near future. The club’s president of baseball operations Derek Falvey tells Phil Miller of the Minneapolis Star Tribune that a significant bullpen addition it isn’t a pressing concern right now. “If we were to do anything at this point, it would likely be to add depth in the middle [innings],” Falvey said. “We’ll keep an open mind, but [relief pitching is] not a priority.”

Last year, the club’s relief corps was firmly in the middle of the pack. Their collective 3.84 ERA was tied for 15th among the 30 teams in the league, while their 3.85 FIP was 14th, their 3.79 xFIP 10th and their 3.50 SIERA ninth. That group also took a hit when deadline acquisition Michael Fulmer reached free agency, though he remains unsigned.

It seems Falvey and the other decision makers in Minnesota have a lot of faith in their internal options. Jorge López was acquired from the Orioles at the deadline last year but still has two remaining years of club control. “We did our bullpen shopping at the [trade] deadline last year by adding some depth, adding Jorge [López],” Falvey said. After many years of mediocre performance as a starter, López converted to a bullpen role full-time in 2022 to great results. In 44 appearances for the O’s, he posted a 1.68 ERA while getting grounders at a 60% clip, striking out 27.6% of batters faced and walking 8.7%. Unfortunately, he didn’t maintain that pace after the trade, with a 4.37 ERA, 53.7% grounder rate, 17.6% strikeout rate and 13.7% walk rate as a Twin.

López will be looking for a bounceback after that frustrating finish to his 2022 campaign, though the club also has other intriguing names in the mix that could step up. Jhoan Durán was primarily a starter in the minors but cracked the majors last year in a relief role and utterly dominated. He tossed 67 2/3 innings over 57 appearances with a 1.86 ERA, getting grounders at a 61% clip while striking out 33.5% of opponents and walking just 6% of them. “He adapted to a new role, at the highest level, faster than we could have hoped,” Falvey said.

As for others in the mix that they’re encouraged by, Falvey had this to say: “We watched Griffin Jax develop into someone we can rely on. What Jovani Moran did the last month of the season, it’s something he can really build upon.” Jax also moved from a starter to a reliever in 2022, and while he didn’t match Durán’s results, he still did well. With 65 appearances last year, he finished the year with a 3.36 ERA, 47.3% ground ball rate, 26.9% strikeout rate and 6.9% walk rate. Moran, meanwhile, put up a 2.21 ERA in 40 2/3 innings, keeping the ball on the ground at a 48.9% pace, while striking out 32.9% of batters faced, though he did walk 11% of them.

Though Falvey admits they might still make a small addition, it seems they feel they already have the high-leverage arms they need. “We feel like we have the eighth and ninth innings covered,” he says. Other relievers likely to be in the club’s bullpen include Caleb Thielbar, Emilio Pagán, Jorge Alcalá and Trevor Megill.

Twins Transfer Miguel Sano To 60-Day IL

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The Twins announced to reporters today, including Betsy Helfand of the St. Paul Pioneer Press, that Miguel Sano has been transferred to the 60-day injured list after they “found something” on the MRI on his knee. His roster spot went to Jake Cave, who was selected to the big league club. The Twins also designated Aaron Sanchez for assignment, per Do-Hyoung Park of MLB.com, whose roster spot when to the recently-acquired Michael Fulmer. In a third pair of transactions, Jharel Cotton was designated for assignment to make room on the roster for Jorge Lopez, acquired in an earlier trade, per Dan Hayes of The Athletic.

Sano, 29, has been a fearsome slugger in the Minnesota lineup since his debut in 2015. He has 162 home runs and a career batting line of .234/.326/.382, wRC+ of 115. However, this year has gone about as poorly as could have been imagined, as Sano began the year with a .093/.231/.148 line through 17 games before suffering a knee injury. He recently returned from a lengthy stretch on the injured list, getting into three more games before landing back on the IL again July 30. He will now be unable to return until 60 days from that date, which would be late September, raising the possibility that his season could be done.

If that’s the case, that could end his time with Minnesota. As part of an extension signed prior to the 2020 campaign, the Twins hold a $14MM option over his services for 2023 with a $2.75MM buyout. Based on his lost season and the Twins getting quality first base production from Jose Miranda and Luis Arraez, they might just opt for the buyout.

As for Cave, 29, he was outrighted at the end of the last season but has been mashing in Triple-A this year. In 84 games on the season, he has 14 homers and a batting line of .273/.370/.509, wRC+ of 131. With Byron Buxton nursing a minor injury, Cave will compete with Nick Gordon, Kyle Garlick and Mark Contreras for playing time on the grass.

As for Sanchez, 30, he was selected to the roster just yesterday to make a spot start and has quickly been dispatched. With the Twins acquiring Tyler Mahle today, the rotation is back to full strength, featuring Mahle, Joe Ryan, Sonny Gray, Dylan Bundy and Chris Archer. Sanchez also made seven starts for the Nationals earlier this year before getting DFA’d, clearing waivers, electing free agency and signing a minor league deal with the Twins. Should he clear waivers again, he would have the right to elect free agency once more.

As for Cotton, 30, he’s bounced on and off the Twins’ roster all season, with this being his third DFA of the year. In each of the previous two instances, he cleared waivers and accepted an outright assignment to the minors. In 35 MLB innings this year, he has a very nice 2.83 ERA, but without the underlying numbers to back it up. His 29.5% ground ball rate, 21.5% strikeout rate and 11.1% walk rate are all worse than league average. As such, all of the advanced pitching metrics feel he deserves worse than that ERA.

Orioles Trade Jorge Lopez To Twins

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10:11am: The Twins and Orioles have announced the trade.

9:36am: The Twins and Orioles are in agreement on a trade sending All-Star closer Jorge Lopez from Baltimore to Minnesota, as first reported Andy Kostka of the Baltimore Sun. The Twins are sending left-handed pitching prospect Cade Povich, right-hander Yennier Cano and a pair of pitching prospects to Baltimore in return, Mark Feinsand of MLB.com reports. Right-hander Juan Nunez and lefty Juan Rojas are the other two names in the deal, tweets ESPN’s Jeff Passan.
Jorge Lopez | D. Ross Cameron-USA TODAY Sports

Lopez, 29, has enjoyed one of the most remarkable turnarounds in Major League Baseball this season, going from a waiver claim at risk of losing his roster spot in Baltimore for much of last season to a first-time All-Star who’s pitched his way into the ranks of the game’s elite relievers. The former second-round pick and top prospect never took off as a starting pitcher but has been outstanding since moving to the bullpen on a full-time basis late last season. Thus far in 2022, Lopez has tossed 48 innings with a 1.68 ERA, a 27.6% strikeout rate, an 8.7% walk rate and an enormous 60% ground-ball rate that ranks fifth in baseball among MLB relievers.

It’s a short sample, to be sure, but Lopez’s move to the ’pen last August served as a portent for the breakout to come. He began heavily favoring his sinker over his four-seamer, watched both his ground-ball rate and velocity make substantial jumps, and tossed 8 1/3 innings with just two runs, a 10-to-2 K/BB ratio and a 66.7% grounder rate. Dating back to last year’s shift to to the bullpen, Lopez has a 1.75 ERA, 27.9% strikeout rate, 8.3% walk rate, 61% grounder rate and a 98 mph average velocity on his sinker.

The Twins are clearly confident in his ability to sustain this newfound production, and adding to his appeal is the fact that Lopez is controlled all the way through the 2024 season. He’s also earning an eminently affordable $1.5MM this year, so he’ll barely impact the 2022 payroll and won’t break the bank in either 2023 or 2024.

Lopez gives the Twins a power-armed closer to pair with flamethrowing rookie Jhoan Duran and breakout righty Griffin Jax at the back of what has been an otherwise awful bullpen. Much like Duran and Jax, Lopez gives manager Rocco Baldelli the flexibility of knowing he can cover more than one inning, if needed. Eleven of Lopez’s 44 appearances this season have seen him record at least four outs.

Headlining the Orioles’ return for Lopez is the 22-year-old Povich, whom Minnesota selected out of the University of Nebraska in the 2021 draft. A relatively soft-tossing lefty with good command in college, Povich’s velocity jumped into the 94-96 mph range upon his shift to pro ball. He’s made 16 starts with the Twins’ Class-A Advanced affiliate this season, pitching to a 4.46 ERA but a far more impressive 31.8% strikeout rate, 7.7% walk rate and 44.3% ground-ball rate. He ranked 22nd in the Twins’ farm system at both FanGraphs and MLB.com, and 21st at Baseball America. Each of those scouting reports peg Povich as at least a back-of-the-rotation arm with the potential to add more ceiling due to his projectable frame and the potential for even further velocity gains.

Cano, 28, received a $750K signing bonus as an international free agent upon leaving Cuba back in 2019. He made his big league debut this season and has surrendered 14 runs in 13 2/3 innings, flashing an average heater of 95.8 mph along the way. The 6’4″ righty has had a far more impressive showing in Triple-A St. Paul, working to a 1.90 ERA, 28.1% strikeout rate and 6.7% walk rate in 23 2/3 innings with the Saints.

That’s the first time in Cano’s career that he’s managed to string together a run of solid command, however. He’s walked 11 of the 70 big league hitters he’s faced (15.7%) and, when looking at his career as a whole, has issued a free pass to 12.2% of his opponents since signing in Minnesota. FanGraphs tabbed him 38th among Twins prospects earlier this year, labeling him as a potential single-inning reliever with command issues but an effective splitter.

Nunez is a 21-year-old righty who’s spent the year thus far with Minnesota’s affiliate in the Florida Complex League. He’s pitched to a 4.85 ERA with an enormous 36.2% strikeout rate and a solid 7.7% walk rate. He’s not particularly young for the level, but it’s an impressive K-BB profile even if the bottom-line ERA has been inflated by a .362 average on balls in play and a 55.2% left-on base rate.

Rojas, meanwhile, is pitching with the same FCL affiliate despite being three years younger than both Nunez and the average age of  players in the league as a whole. He’s turned in a 3.60 ERA in 30 innings while showing outstanding rate stats: 32.4% strikeout, 3.4% walk, 48.6% ground-ball. Obviously, both he and Nunez are extremely long-term plays, as neither figures to sniff the Major Leagues for several seasons. Still, adding a pair of live-armed prospects to the lower levels of the system right now will ideally give the O’s some minor league depth and upside once the upper-level group of current top prospects has begun to solidify itself in the Majors.

Baltimore won’t acquire anyone immediately ranked among the sport’s very best prospects — or even presently among the Twins’ very best farmhands — but Povich is the type of projectable college arm with some recent helium who could soon find himself ranked among the Orioles’ top arms. Still, it’s hard not to like the deal from the Twins’ vantage point, as they managed to address a dire need in the bullpen for both the current and two subsequent seasons without pillaging the top levels of their farm system. That should prove pivotal when looking to bolster the rotation and perhaps further deepen the bullpen and the bench in the final hours leading up to the deadline.

Should The Orioles Rethink Their Trade Deadline Approach?

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Few teams in baseball are playing as well as the Orioles lately. That’s not what anyone would have imagined entering the season or as recently as a couple weeks ago. As the calendar flipped to July, Baltimore was 35-43 and separated by six teams in the American League Wild Card standings. They were among the handful most clear-cut deadline sellers in the sport. Six Baltimore players were placed among MLBTR’s Top 50 trade candidates last Friday.

Fast forward just a few days, and the O’s have done everything in their power to make the front office think twice about selling. They’ve rattled off successive sweeps of the Rangers and Angels and carry an eight-game win streak. Pair that with a dreadful past week and a half for teams like the Blue Jays and Guardians — who were at or near the top of the Wild Card heap — and Baltimore has closed a stunning amount of ground. They head into play Monday two back of the final AL playoff spot, which is currently shared by the Mariners and Jays. They’ll have a chance to climb back to .500 tomorrow evening against the Cubs.

The Orioles aren’t going to continue winning indefinitely, of course. Their successive sweeps came against two below-average teams, and the Angels in particular have been in an absolute tailspin. Yet their solid play hasn’t been confined just to the past week and a half. They’re 22-14 since the start of June, outscoring opponents by 29 runs (170-141) over that stretch. That’s an arbitrary cutoff, and one can’t dismiss a 7-14 April that buried them in the standings right out of the gate. Yet this has at least been the best stretch of play for the franchise since their rebuild began in 2018, and they’ve gotten themselves into the playoff picture.

Will that be enough to deter the front office from moving some players off the roster for future talent? General manager Mike Elias struck a cautious tone speaking with reporters last week (link via Roch Kubatko of MASNsports.com). “Everything that I do or that we do has tradeoffs, and all I can say is, we do everything from a very global, a very thoughtful perspective about what is the right thing to do for the health of the Orioles’ franchise,” Elias said. “I don’t know what’s going to happen, but I’m saying we’re taking a look at everything as we make these decisions and we’ll see what happens.”

The front office certainly doesn’t seem ready to declare the rebuild over and part with high-end talent to add pieces for the 2022 stretch run. Each of FanGraphs and Baseball Reference has the club’s odds of reaching the playoffs below 10%. Even as they’ve played their way back into the picture, it’s fair to wonder whether the roster — the starting rotation especially — can hold up for another two and a half months. Few would argue the Orioles are a better team than the Blue Jays, Mariners, Rays or Red Sox, yet they’ll have to outplay multiple members of that group (and hold off a handful of teams just behind them) to get to the playoffs. Even were they to add some rotation help and/or upgrade on any of Jorge Mateo, Ramón Urías or Rougned Odor around the infield, the O’s would remain postseason longshots.

If Elias and his staff aren’t likely to pivot and aggressively add before the deadline, there’s still room for them to stay the course without selling. By and large, the O’s current core can be kept around beyond this season. Baltimore has just three impending free agents on the roster. Odor and backup catcher Robinson Chirinos aren’t going to attract trade interest anyhow, meaning the only key rental for the O’s to decide upon is Trey Mancini. (His deal technically contains a $10MM mutual option for 2023, but he’s likely to decline that and seek a multi-year free agent deal).

Mancini is having a good season, carrying a .281/.353/.420 line across 331 plate appearances. He’d attract a decent amount of interest as one of the better rental bats available were the Orioles to shop him over the next few weeks. Still, as an impending free agent with defensive limitations, he won’t bring back an eye-popping return. Baltimore almost certainly wouldn’t recoup a prospect generally regarded as a top 100 caliber player in a deal. In all likelihood, they’d land a couple of players most evaluators view as middle-tier prospects from another organization.

A Mancini trade would add talent to an already-deep farm system, but would there be enough appeal to pull the trigger if the Orioles remain within three or four games of a Wild Card spot by the August 2 deadline? In addition to his on-field value, the 30-year-old first baseman is generally regarded as a strong clubhouse presence. He’s a fan favorite, and his overcoming a 2020 battle with colon cancer makes him one of the sport’s easiest players to support. Dealing Mancini if the Orioles were 10+ games back would’ve been unpopular with some segment of the fanbase; trading him if the team continues playing well and remains on the fringes of contention would be even more so. That’d be equally true in the clubhouse.

Baltimore’s highest-value assets are under a longer window of club control. Outfielders Cedric Mullins and Austin Hays can be kept around through 2025. They looked unlikely to change hands no matter how this season’s first half went, and that’s all the more true with the club showing signs of life. Closer Jorge López could be more likely to move given the inherent volatility with relief pitching, but he’s arbitration-eligible through 2024. That’s also true of corner outfielder Anthony Santander, who’d have more modest interest than any of Mullins, Hays or López given his defensive shortcomings and up-and-down career track record at the dish.

Things should get harder for the O’s over the next few weeks. After a two-game set with Chicago, they’ll split their next ten games between the Rays (seven) and Yankees (three). Their final series of July will be in Cincinnati, followed by one pre-deadline matchup with Texas. Drop ten or 11 of those contests, and the O’s probably end up as sellers, at least parting with Mancini. If they can go 8-8 or 9-7 over that stretch, though, Elias and his staff will have to decide on a team hovering around .500 and likely within shouting distance of a playoff spot for the first time in six years.

The front office is certainly going to remain mindful of the long-term outlook. They’re not going to suddenly jump into the Luis Castillo or Frankie Montas bidding, although perhaps they could entertain the idea of adding a lower-impact starter with a lengthier window of remaining control. Yet the team has played well enough of late to give themselves a shot to avoid subtractions. Much will depend on how they play over the next three weeks, but the Orioles may not be as motivated to deal as they’d seemed just a few days ago. That’s a credit to their surprisingly strong play over the past month-plus. The team has given themselves a shot to make the front office rethink their deadline outlook, and the next 15 games should be the franchise’s most important in a half-decade.

Image courtesy of USA Today Sports.

East Notes: Castillo, Jays, Orioles, Marte, Kiermaier, Nationals

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Luis Castillo was a Blue Jays trade target last winter, and unsurprisingly, Toronto continues to have interest in Castillo’s services, according to USA Today’s Bob Nightengale.  Though Castillo missed the first month of the season due to shoulder soreness, he has been in strong form with a 2.92 ERA over 71 innings, even if his Statcast numbers aren’t quite as reflective of top-notch performance.  Castillo’s walk rate and hard-contact numbers are only okay, though his strikeout rate (25.3%) is well above league average and he still has elite fastball velocity.

The Reds right-hander is one of the very best players (let alone pitchers) expected to be available as the deadline approaches, making him a natural fit for a Toronto club in sore need of pitching upgrades.  Between Hyun Jin Ryu’s Tommy John surgery and underwhelming performances from Jose Berrios and Yusei Kikuchi, the faulty rotation has been the chief reason for the Jays’ struggles in the last month, which is why Nightengale writes that the Blue Jays “are expected to be the most aggressive team pursuing starting pitching help.”  Last summer’s trade for Berrios is an example of how the Toronto front office hasn’t been hesitant to pay a big price for a player they want and need, though the Blue Jays will face plenty of competition for Castillo’s services.

More from both the AL East and NL East…

  • Also from Nightengale, the Orioles’ surprisingly strong play seemingly hasn’t changed the club’s long-term plans, as Baltimore is “expected to unload” several notable veterans.  The list of names includes both impending free agents like Trey Mancini, Rougned Odor, and Jordan Lyles, plus more controllable players like Anthony Santander and All-Star closer Jorge Lopez.  It’s safe to assume that the price tag will be a lot higher for Lopez and Santander than the others, but regardless, the O’s likely aren’t going to change course and start thinking about a playoff push.
  • Starling Marte left Saturday’s game due to a groin injury, and Marte wasn’t in the Mets lineup on Sunday.  However, Marte is only day-to-day, as manager Buck Showalter told reporters (including MLB.com’s Anthony DiComo) that an MRI revealed only minor inflammation and no serious damage.  Marte has been a big contributor in his first year in New York, and his first-half performance earned him a slot on the NL All-Star team earlier today.  With this groin injury lingering, however, Marte might opt to skip the game to rest up over the break.
  • Kevin Kiermaier was placed on the 10-day injured list earlier today, marking the second time this month that a nagging hip injury has put the Rays outfielder on the shelf.  Kiermaier told reporters (including Marc Topkin of the Tampa Bay Times) that he received a cortisone shot during his first IL stint, but now that the issue has returned, he’ll be visiting a specialist to further explore the injury.  “There’s just a lot of unknowns right now with what’s to come….I don’t really know what the future holds, to be quite honest,” Kiermaier said, noting that surgery was a possibility.  A major procedure could quite possibly end Kiermaier’s season, and thus maybe his tenure with the Rays altogether, as 2022 is the final guaranteed year of his contract.  Kiermaier has spent all 13 of his pro seasons in the Tampa organization, though that tenure has involved several injury absences.
  • There hasn’t been much public information revealed about the Nationals’ possible sale, but billionaire Michael B. Kim is the first name linked to the list of potential buyers, according to Barry Svrluga and Chelsea Janes of The Washington Post.  Kim and another bidding group have met in person with team officials already, and a third group is also slated for in-person meetings later in July.  Though there seems to be an increasing feeling that the Lerner family will indeed sell the Nationals, it is still early in the process, since “as many as five or six individuals or groups are expected to meet with club officials.”

The Orioles’ Waiver Claim All-Star (And Trade Candidate)

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The Orioles have acquired their fair share of formerly well-regarded prospects over the course of a drawn-out rebuild, as one would expect of a team in their situation. For the most part, there’s little to show for their frequent waiver claims and minor trades in this arena, however. Names like Maikel Franco, Kelvin Gutierrez, Carson Fulmer, Chris Shaw, Dilson Herrera, Rio Ruiz and Jahmai Jones have had brief spells in recent years, none producing much in the way of value. Longtime top prospect Jorge Mateo is currently on the roster and leading the AL with 19 steals … but he’s also been one of MLB’s worst hitters, evidenced by a .199/.247/.335 batting line.

For much of his tenure with the Orioles, it looked as though right-hander Jorge Lopez was destined to join that list of once-promising names who got another shot in Baltimore but never really panned out. Lopez was a second-round pick of the Brewers back in 2011 and ranked as one of the system’s better arms for years. He was eventually traded to the Royals alongside Brett Phillips in the deal that brought Mike Moustakas to Milwaukee, and Lopez went on to have a rather nondescript run in Kansas City. Appearing in 47 games — 25 of them starts — he was rocked for a 6.42 ERA over the life of 158 1/3 innings. The Royals eventually felt he’d had enough opportunities and cut bait. The Orioles claimed Lopez off waivers.

Lopez’s first two years in Baltimore were a near-mirror image of his ugly run with the Royals. From Aug. 2020 through the end of the 2021 season, Lopez started 31 games and made 11 relief appearances with the O’s; he posted a 6.13 ERA (5.22 FIP) with a 19.3% strikeout rate, a 9.4% walk rate and 1.58 HR/9 through 160 innings pitched.

Heading into the offseason, Lopez looked as though his time with the team could be up. Due for his first trip through the arbitration process, Lopez was a soon-to-be-29-year-old who’d posted an ERA north of 6.00 in three consecutive seasons. The O’s had acquired and subsequently discarded plenty of former top prospects of this nature, and few fans or pundits would’ve been surprised to see Lopez meet the same fate. Many — myself included — felt a Lopez non-tender was all but a given.

Instead, the Orioles signed Lopez to a one-year, $1.5MM deal on the day of the non-tender deadline. It might prove to be the best use of payroll resources so far during Mike Elias’ time as the team’s general manager, as Lopez  appears all but assured of earning his first ever All-Star nod.

Jorge Lopez | Kim Klement-USA TODAY Sports

Through the first three months of the season, the 29-year-old Lopez has stepped up not only as Baltimore’s closer but as one of the best relievers in Major League Baseball. Pitching exclusively in relief for the first time in his big league career, Lopez has seen the average velocity on his sinker jump to a career-best 98.0 mph. Never one to miss many bats in prior seasons, he’s logged an 11.6% swinging-strike rate that, while not elite, is three percentage points higher than his pre-2022 career mark and is slightly north of the 11.1% MLB average. Unsurprisingly, he’s fanning opponents at a career-best 27.1% clip so far in 2022. Again, it’s not an elite level — Lopez is tied for 64th among 178 qualified relievers in overall strikeout rate — but it’s comfortably above the 23.4% league average for relievers.

Lopez does possess at least one elite skill, however. Opposing hitters can barely elevate the ball against him. The right-hander’s 64% ground-ball rate is the third-best in baseball among qualified relievers, and while no one’s catching Clay Holmes in that regard (82.4%), Lopez’s power sinker has helped to turn him into a bona fide bullpen force.

The success lies not solely in the fact that Lopez is getting hitters to pound the ball into the ground — it’s in the fact that the contact against him, both in the air and on the ground, is generally hapless. Hitters are averaging an 84.5 mph exit velocity against Lopez on grounders — well below the league average — but even when they manage to lift the ball, it’s been wildly ineffectual. Lopez has yet to surrender a home run this season, and his opponents’ average 89.7 mph exit velo on liners/fly-balls is tied for the 19th-lowest mark among 368 qualified big league pitchers.

Given the sinker’s dominance, it’s not a surprise to see Lopez going to it more than ever before. He’s all but scrapped his four-seamer, throwing it at just a three percent clip so far in 2022, while his sinker is being used at a career-high 51.3% clip. He’s also throwing his slider at a career-high 12% pace and his changeup at a career-high 15.9% rate — with that change in secondary offerings coming at the expense of his previous go-to curveball. Lopez is still tossing that curve 17.8% of the time, but that’s down considerably from 2018-21’s 27.8% usage rate. The velocity uptick is across the board — even Lopez’s changeup is average just under 91 mph — and it’s effectively rendered all four of his main offerings as above-average pitches. FanGraphs’ run values peg each of Lopez’s sinker, curveball, changeup and slider as positive-value pitches this season.

If it seems like an out-of-the-blue breakout, that’s mostly true, although it’s possible that Lopez’s August/September performance in 2021 served both as a portent for this turnaround and as a means of saving his roster spot. Lopez lost his rotation spot after an Aug. 19 drubbing at the hands of the Rays (four runs in two innings). His next outing came out of the bullpen and featured a scoreless inning with a pair of strikeouts — and from that point forth, Lopez would pitch 8 1/3 innings of relief while allowing just two runs on six hits and two walks with 10 strikeouts.

That’s a tiny sample, of course, but the seeds of this breakout were quite likely planted at that point. From Opening Day 2021 through that final start on Aug. 19, Lopez threw his four-seam fastball at a 24.2% clip and his sinker at a 33.3% clip. The sinker was still favored, but his ineffective four-seam heater was a prominent part of his repertoire. Over his final eight relief appearances, Lopez shifted gear and turned to his sinker at a 48.4% rate while cutting back the use of his four-seamer to just 15.3%. The sinker, which had sat at 95 mph out of the rotation, jumped to 96.5 mph on average, and Lopez’s overall ground-ball rate soared from 49.4% to 66.7%.

Small-sample sources of intrigue like these don’t always pan out, but the O’s deserve credit for looking at Lopez’s strong bullpen showing down the stretch in 2021 and believing that he could build on that formula over a larger sample. The risk was minimal — $1.5MM and a 40-man roster spot all winter — but few would’ve batted an eye had the O’s non-tendered Lopez and looked to utilize that roster spot in a different manner.

Instead, the Orioles now have a pitcher who has genuinely been one of MLB’s best relievers in 2022. Lopez has a minuscule 0.73 ERA on the year, and he ranks in the 93rd percentile or better in each of the following (according to Statcast): expected ERA, average exit velocity, hard-hit rate, barrel rate, expected wOBA, expected batting average and expected slugging percentage. Lopez is one of just five relievers in MLB (min. 30 innings) with a strikeout rate greater than 25%, a walk rate under 10% and a ground-ball rate north of 50%. The others — Holmes, Taylor Rogers, Emmanuel Clase and breakout rookie Jhoan Duran — are considered among baseball’s elite.

Of course, given the Orioles’ place in the standings and the protracted nature of their rebuild, trade speculation regarding Lopez is inevitable. General manager Mike Elias will absolutely be receiving calls and texts about Lopez’s availability — he surely already has — and Elias generally takes a “no one is off the table” approach regarding his veteran players. Lopez will surely be “available” to an extent, but there might not be a trade candidate in baseball who has elevated his stock quite this dramatically in 2022.

Beyond Lopez’s pure dominance, he’d be a multi-year fix for any team willing to pony up with a hefty offer. The right-hander has two years of club control remaining beyond the current season, and given this year’s eminently affordable $1.5MM salary, his future raises will be starting from a relatively low baseline. In other words, he ought to remain overwhelmingly affordable — especially relative to his newfound production — over the remainder of that club control.

The Orioles certainly don’t have to trade Lopez. By the time his club control is drawing to a close, in 2024, they may well finally be back to a state of competitiveness. At the same time, reliever performance is volatile on a year-to-year basis. Just as there’s risk in selling a high-end contributor like Lopez for unproven young talent, there’s risk that Lopez will sustain an injury or simply a downturn in performance — even if that appears unlikely based on his current skill set.

The O’s, for instance, had plenty of interest in lefty Paul Fry prior to last year’s deadline but held onto him (and his remaining three-plus years of club control). Fry melted down with 19 runs over seven post-deadline innings and wound up being designated for assignment earlier this year (at which point he was flipped to the D-backs for a 19-year-old in Rookie ball). Fry’s trade value wasn’t nearly as high as Lopez’s is now, nor was his future outlook quite so promising. That said, the manner in which his Baltimore tenure panned out is illustrative of the risk associated with rebuilding clubs holding onto bullpen arms in hopes of down-the-road contributions.

The nexus of Lopez’s dominance, his remaining club control and the Orioles’ timeline to compete will make him one of the most fascinating borderline cases to monitor as this year’s Aug. 2 trade deadline draws nearer. In the meantime, he’ll give O’s fans good reason to tune into the All-Star Game — well, if he’s still wearing an Orioles uniform by that point.

Injured List Placements: Naylor, Wendle, Mountcastle

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Catching up on some recent injury news…

  • The Guardians made a handful of roster moves on Friday, with Josh Naylor going onto the COVID-related injury list, per Mandy Bell of MLB.com. Headed in the other direction was Yu Chang, who landed on the COVID IL a month ago. The club also recalled Richie Palacios and optioned Kirk McCarty. On Wednesday, the Guardians had their game against the White Sox postponed after multiple positive tests among their coaching staff. The next day, seven staff members were placed in COVID protocol in relation to this outbreak. It seems that this has extended to Naylor, though it’s unclear if he has been shelved due to a positive test, showing symptoms or contact tracing. The first baseman/outfielder has been excellent so far this year, hitting .347/.377/.611 for a wRC+ of 191 through 20 games. With Naylor absent last night, the club slid Owen Miller from second to first and used Andres Gimenez and Amed Rosario up the middle.
  • The Marlins placed Joey Wendle on the 10-day injured list yesterday with a right hamstring strain, retroactive to May 12, per their transactions tracker at MLB.com. In a corresponding move, Brian Anderson was activated off the COVID IL. The 40-man roster had a couple of vacancies and is now at 39, though Jon Berti and Richard Bleier remain on the COVID list and will need roster spots when they return. Losing Wendle is certainly a hit for the Marlins, as he has started this season hot. Through 25 games, he’s hitting .304/.368/.456, 140 wRC+. He’s also added four steals and good defense to accumulate 1.2 wins above replacement already, according to FanGraphs. However, it’s possible that the return of Anderson can make it close to a wash, as he was hitting .262/.385/.385 before landing on the IL, producing a wRC+ of 131.
  • The Orioles announced yesterday that first baseman Ryan Mountcastle was placed on the 10-day injured list with a left wrist forearm strain, retroactive to May 11. Jorge Lopez returned from the bereavement list in a corresponding move. Mountcastle’s production is down a few ticks relative to last year, but still above league average. In 2021, he hit .255/.309/.487 for a wRC+ of 111. This year, he’s moved to .268/.299/.402, wRC+ of 104. He seems to be taking a more contact-oriented approach, at least in this small sample of 28 games. His swing percentage is up on pitches inside and outside the zone, but his contact rates have also gone up in both cases. As a result, his walk and strikeout rates are both down relative to previous years. That’s led to a drop in slugging, though that’s also been a trend across the league so far this year. With Mountcastle out, Trey Mancini and Tyler Nevin will likely cover first base for him.

Tender Deadline Signings: 11/30/21

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With the deadline to tender contracts to arbitration-eligible players looming tonight at 8pm ET — the MLBPA and MLB jointly agreed to move the deadline up a couple days due to the looming expiration of the collective bargaining agreement — we’ll likely see a slew of arbitration-eligible players signing one-year deals.

It’s commonplace for a large batch of players to sign deals in the hours leading up to the tender deadline. “Pre-tender” deals of this nature often fall shy of projections due to the fact that teams use the looming threat of a non-tender to enhance their leverage. Arbitration contracts at this juncture are often take-it-or-leave-it propositions, with the “leave it” end of that arrangement resulting in the player being cut loose. Given the widely expected lockout, there could be more incentive than usual for borderline non-tender candidates to take those offers rather than being cast out into free agency just hours before a transaction freeze is implemented.

As a reminder, arbitration contracts are not fully guaranteed. In a typical year, a team can cut a player on an arb contract at any point before the halfway point in Spring Training and only be responsible for 30 days’ termination pay (about one-sixth of the contract). Releasing a player in the second half of Spring Training bumps the termination pay to 45 days of his prorated salary.

MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz projected salaries for each team’s arbitration-eligible players last month, although for many of the players listed below, this isn’t so much avoiding arbitration as it is avoiding a non-tender. Here’s a look at today’s agreements…

  • The Yankees have agreed to deals with infielder Gio Urshela and right-hander Domingo German, reports Mark Feinsand of MLB.com (Twitter links). Urshela will make $6.55MM, while German has agreed to a $1.75MM deal. Urshela has two seasons of control remaining; German is controllable for three years. Urshela is coming off a .267/.301/.419 showing while playing third base and shortstop. German tossed 98 1/3 innings of 4.58 ERA ball.
  • The Twins have signed three arbitration-eligible pitchers, per reports from Feinsand and Darren Wolfson of SKOR North (on Twitter). Right-hander Jharel Cotton signed for $700K, reliever Caleb Thielbar lands $1.3MM and reliever Tyler Duffey signs for $3.8MM. Thielbar and Duffey were both productive members of the Minnesota relief corps in 2021. Cotton was recently claimed off waivers from the Rangers.
  • The Giants have agreed to terms with outfielder Austin Slater on a $1.85MM deal, reports Ken Rosenthal of the Athletic (Twitter link). The 28-year-old (29 next month) appeared at all three spots on the grass while hitting .241/.320/.423 over 306 plate appearances in 2021.
  • Reliever Emilio Pagan and the Padres have agreed on a $2.3MM deal, reports Rosenthal (on Twitter). The 30-year-old worked 63 1/3 innings of 4.83 ERA/3.93 SIERA ball this past season.
  • The Diamondbacks agreed to a $2MM deal with left-hander Caleb Smith, reports Zach Buchanan of the Athletic (via Twitter). The 30-year-old posted a 4.83 ERA/4.68 SIERA across 113 2/3 innings in a swing capacity in 2021.

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Orioles Claim Brooks Kriske From Yankees

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The Orioles announced they’ve claimed reliever Brooks Kriske off waivers from the Yankees and optioned him to Triple-A Norfolk. Righty Jorge López was transferred from the 10-day to the 60-day injured list to open space on the 40-man roster.

Kriske hasn’t yet found any big league success. He’s been up-and-down with New York over the past two seasons and combined for 11 1/3 innings of twenty-run ball. The righty has punched out a fine fifteen batters in that time, but he’s also issued thirteen walks and been tagged for six home runs.

As one would expect, Kriske has been much better in the minor leagues. He owns a 2.59 ERA in 48 2/3 frames in Double-A, and he’s been almost as good this season with the Yankees’ top affiliate in Scranton/Wilkes-Barre. Through 28 1/3 Triple-A innings, the 27-year-old has posted a 3.81 ERA with a massive 36.6% strikeout rate and 16.8% swinging strike percentage. Kriske has issued a few too many walks in the minors as well, but he’s shown more promise against high-level hitters than his major league resume might indicate.

Kriske still has one additional minor league option year remaining beyond this season. Assuming he sticks on the 40-man roster, he can be shuttled between Baltimore and Norfolk through the end of 2022. The Orioles have had arguably the league’s worst bullpen, so they’re in search of any arms who might be able to establish themselves as reliable members of the pitching staff next year. It’s no surprise the front office would take a flier on Kriske in hopes that he can translate some of his minor league success into the majors at some point.

López’s IL transfer is merely a procedural move. He was already expected to be out for the season after spraining his right ankle last week. The 28-year-old posted a 6.07 ERA across 121 2/3 innings this year.

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