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NL East Notes: Harvey, Collins, Wittgren

By Jeff Todd | September 26, 2017 at 1:40pm CDT

The Mets are indeed preparing to tender righty Matt Harvey a contract, Jon Heyman of Fan Rag reports. MLBTR’s Steve Adams examined the matter just yesterday, explaining why the club likely sees the 28-year-old as a worthwhile investment despite his marked struggles. GM Sandy Alderson had already made that rather clear, but Heyman suggests it’s all but a done deal and adds some context. New York, he says, may mostly plan to rely on the team’s slate of internal rotation options while investing instead in the bullpen.

More from the NL East:

  • It seems likely the Mets will move on from Terry Collins, as we’ve also heard recently, but Mike Puma of the New York Post gives the clearest indication yet that the veteran skipper will probably depart. Per the report, ownership is not expected to override the baseball ops department, which seemingly intends to notify Collins of its decision shortly. The club’s precise plans for the potential managerial vacancy remain unknown, though Puma says it’s fairly likely that New York will look to bring in a new skipper that has previous “ties to the organization.” He lists Robin Ventura, Alex Cora, Kevin Long, Bob Geren, and Chip Hale as potential candidates.
  • Marlins righty Nick Wittgren underwent surgery to remove a bone spur from his elbow, as he himself tweeted. Notably, Wittgren fills us in on one underappreciated aspect of the work of Dr. James Andrews: the famed surgeon was thoughtful enough to send his patient home with the malevolent spur. Wittgren, 26, will have a full offseason to get healthy (as well as a new trophy). He had an interesting 2017 season, recording 9.1 K/9 against 2.8 BB/9 over 42 1/3 innings, but managed only a 4.68 ERA. As the Miami organization looks for ways to make its roster leaner, Wittgren holds out some hope of providing useful relief innings at a budget rate of pay.
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Miami Marlins New York Mets Matt Harvey Terry Collins

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Dan Duquette On Orioles’ Rotation Needs

By Jeff Todd | September 26, 2017 at 12:34pm CDT

As the Orioles wrap up a difficult campaign, there’s still some ongoing tension between executive VP of baseball ops Dan Duquette and skipper Buck Showalter, according to Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic (subscription req’d). But there’s no indication that “strained” communications will lead to any major changes, and Duquette suggests that he’s heading into the winter preparing once again to build a winning roster — with a particular focus on starting pitching.

In conversations with Rosenthal and also with Dan Connolly of BaltimoreBaseball.com, Duquette indicated that he’s optimistic about some young players that are reaching or nearing the majors. While filling out the rotation will be a “big challenge,” says Duquette, “it’s been done here before.”

We’ve heard previously that the O’s believe they need to add at least two new starters, and that certainly seems to be the case after a miserable 2017 performance. “There’s no major league team in the business that’s going to withstand three of their starters not pitching up to the level that they established for themselves,” said Duquette, referring to the struggles of Chris Tillman, Ubaldo Jimenez, and Wade Miley.

Of course, those veterans all had some concerns entering the season, and it’s fair to wonder whether and how Baltimore will find more reliable arms this time around. As Connolly notes, while Duquette expressed optimism about some prospects, it doesn’t seem any are waiting in the wings to take a rotation spot out of camp.

With a big commitment to Chris Davis on the books and several core player slated to depart after the 2018 season, the O’s will need to be cautious of long-term commitments in free agency. Unless owner Peter Angelos really opens up the pocketbook, adding veteran pitching through the open market may be challenge. (MLBTR’s Steve Adams recently broke down the starting pitching market by certain indicators.)

The trade market doesn’t necessarily seem an easier route. With the Orioles likely relying on position-player prospects to cover for the possible losses of Manny Machado, Adam Jones, and eventually Jonathan Schoop, they’ll be hesitant to deal from that stock. While Connolly hints that the club might consider trying to swap out Mark Trumbo for an expensive hurler from another organization, that may be easier said than done.

Despite the obvious difficulties, Duquette insists he can build a quality staff around Dylan Bundy and Kevin Gausman. Those two make for a good starting point, to be sure, though Bundy will be looking to sustain his performance after a big innings jump and Gausman struggled badly over the first half of 2017. Even assuming that pair is healthy and effective, it’ll be a tall order to put together a productive five-man unit (not to mention ensuring adequate depth behind it).

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Baltimore Orioles

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West Notes: Maxwell, Rodney, Hundley

By Jeff Todd | September 26, 2017 at 10:33am CDT

Whatever one may think about athletes making social or political gestures during the National Anthem, this excellent piece from Jeff Passan of Yahoo Sports on Athletics catcher Bruce Maxwell is well worth a read. The first-year big leaguer, who became the first and thus far only major-league player to join many in the NFL in taking a knee during the anthem, certainly has thought deeply about his actions and appears to be motivated by honestly-held beliefs.

Here’s more from out west:

  • While the Diamondbacks will end up paying closer Fernando Rodney more than he was guaranteed before the season, that’s a good thing. As Nick Piecoro of the Arizona Republic explains, Rodney has already tacked on $1.25MM on top of his $2.75MM base salary. With one more appearance he’ll take home another $250K check. The purpose, says GM Mike Hazen, was to “pay him more if we leaned on him in a good season” but leave the team “more protected” if things went south. With the D-Backs slated for a Wild Card play-in, the money has proven well spent. The 40-year-old Rodney carries a less-than-inspiring 4.33 ERA, but has racked up 39 saves and has perhaps thrown better than the ERA suggests. Rodney has stranded only 59.9% of baserunners to reach against him, which likely reflects some poor fortune. He carries 10.5 K/9 and 4.3 BB/9 along with a 51.5% groundball rate on the year.
  • Veteran backstop Nick Hundley says he’d like to return to the Giants, as Andrew Baggarly of the Mercury News reports. Skipper Bruce Bochy says he’ll “sit down” with the catcher about the future, noting that he expects Hundley to “have some choices” in free agency. Hundley slashed .252/.281/.434 with nine home runs in 290 plate appearances, with the on-base struggles offsetting his pop. And he doesn’t rate well as a framer. Still, the Giants seem to feel they have received good value on their $2MM investment; Baggarly documents Hundley’s work with the pitching staff and positive clubhouse presence. “I love it here,” said Hundley, adding that he “can’t imagine how much better it’d be if we were winning more games.”
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Arizona Diamondbacks Athletics San Francisco Giants Fernando Rodney Nick Hundley

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Shohei Otani Interviewing MLB Agents

By Jeff Todd | September 26, 2017 at 8:12am CDT

Japanese superstar Shohei Otani has not made anything official, but indications continue to gather that he will indeed seek a move to the majors over the offseason to come. After reports emerged recently that Otani was lining up to request that he be made available by his current team, the Nippon Ham Fighters, the 23-year-old pitcher/outfielder has now begun to interview MLB player agents, according to a report from Jon Heyman of Fan Rag.

It seems that Otani and those close to him have already begun the process in earnest, with a variety of well-known agents making the trek to Japan (even as MLB executives do the same). Heyman’s report suggests that the search for a rep is moving at a healthy clip, with Otani said to be possibly preparing to “begin a second round of interviews within the next week or so” after narrowing the field of possibilities.

Otani is widely regarded as the best baseball player in the world that isn’t currently wearing a MLB uniform. Given his age and immense talent (as both a pitcher and a hitter), there’s little question that Otani would command a nine-figure commitment were he free of the international bonus pool caps.

Because he is less than 25 years of age, and evidently does not wish to wait to make the move, Otani can receive only a minor-league deal that almost certainly won’t top seven figures. The precise bonus that each team can offer varies widely, but in no event can a team accumulate and dispense more than $10.1MM under the current system. And even those teams that could reach that figure will have committed some funds to other players. Quite a few organizations — including some that seem to be looking into Otani — cannot even give more than $300K to a single player, owing to penalties imposed under the prior bonus system. (Whatever team signs Otani would also need to send $20MM to the Fighters, though that element of the player exchange rules is said to be up for potential discussion before the offseason transactions get underway in earnest.)

With that backdrop, Otani’s meetings with prospective agents are all the more interesting to ponder. Just what he’ll prioritize in deciding upon a MLB team — geography, the ability to play both ways, likelihood of contention, marketing opportunities, long-term extension possibilities — isn’t clear. And his precise approach will surely be influenced by what he believes to be possible after this series of sit-downs.

Many have speculated that Otani could seek — and teams could offer — a handshake agreement of some kind to enter into an early-career extension. While the league has indicated it will police any attempts to evade the bonus pool rules, there seems to be a broad gray area that could theoretically be encountered. Just how far will Otani’s agents and organizational suitors go in weighing a future contract during initial talks? How long might they wait to formalize any such agreement? What would happen if injury or performance issues intervene to change the future expectations? These are fascinating questions that we won’t know the answers to for some time — if the issues even fully form — but the groundwork for how things may play out is being laid right now.

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Uncategorized Shohei Ohtani

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Injury Notes: Altuve, Yadi, Olson, Red Sox

By Jeff Todd | September 26, 2017 at 12:04am CDT

Here are the latest health notes from around the game:

  • The Astros dodged a bullet tonight when star second baseman Jose Altuve left the game after being struck on the forearm by a pitch. Thankfully, as Jake Kaplan of the Houston Chronicle tweets, x-rays came back negative. The diminutive 27-year-old is leading the American League in hits for the fourth consecutive year and in batting average for the third time in four seasons. He’s also pacing qualified batters with a career-best 168 OPS+.
  • Also departing with an injury tonight was Cardinals veteran Yadier Molina. The team announced that he’s undergoing testing as part of the concussion protocol after taking two consecutive foul balls off of his mask. His status for the rest of the regular season remains uncertain, but it could become a bigger issue if St. Louis can claw into Wild Card position.
  • Athletics slugger Matt Olson has been diagnosed with a grade 2 hamstring strain, Susan Slusser of the San Francisco Chronicle tweets. He’s very likely to miss the remainder of the season, but it won’t put a damper on an exciting campaign. Olson, 23, has streaked to 24 long balls in 216 trips to the plate, with a robust .259/.352/.651 batting line. He’ll fall shy of a full year of service, too, so the A’s will control Olson for six more campaigns.
  • Things didn’t go quite as hoped for the Red Sox tonight. Lefty Drew Pomeranz was sitting in the high-eighties with his fastball, though he says that was part of a plan to save some gas for the later innings, as Jason Mastrodonato of the Boston Herald reports. Star outfielder Mookie Betts left with a wrist issue, though there’s no reason as yet to think it’s significant. Of the greatest concern, perhaps, infielder Eduardo Nunez tweaked his injured knee. He suggested that he’ll sit out a few more games and try again to return, as Jason Mastrodonato of the Boston Herald tweets.
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Athletics Boston Red Sox Houston Astros St. Louis Cardinals Tampa Bay Rays Drew Pomeranz Eduardo Nunez Jose Altuve Matt Olson Mookie Betts Yadier Molina

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Will The Royals Retain Any Of Their Free-Agent Stars?

By Jeff Todd | September 25, 2017 at 9:08pm CDT

The question isn’t a new one. It has long been observed that three key Royals players — center fielder Lorenzo Cain, first baseman Eric Hosmer, and third baseman Mike Moustakas — would all reach the open market after the 2017 season. Indeed, it seemed at times that the club would get out ahead of the pending departure by dealing one or more of those players, as it did with closer Wade Davis over the winter, though that never came to pass.

With the Kansas City club all but mathematically eliminated from the postseason, we’re fast approaching the point where the question will no longer be hypothetical. It’s clear that all three players are worthy of receiving and declining qualifying offers, potentially setting the stage for the organization to pick up a nice haul of draft picks as compensation if they depart. Barring a stunning development — the QO decision period will at least provide a window — none will re-up with the Royals before reaching the open market.

While the expectation long has been that the Royals would require some transition period, it’s tough to guess from the outside just what that might look like. The organization ran a payroll of over $140MM this year and has made clear it can’t do so again. But it already has more than $100MM committed for 2018, with a variety of veteran players — many controlled for the short-term, but a few on longer-term deals — still on the books. Some of those contracts have some value; others don’t. But the mix will make it difficult for the Royals to embark upon a complete and immediate tear-down.

So, is there still some possibility that Cain, Hosmer, and/or Moustakas could find themselves back in a familiar place next year and beyond? It isn’t as if the club has obvious replacements lined up for the trio. And all have indicated they would like to return, if that proves possible.

Obviously, the biggest barrier is cost. While K.C. might conceivably welcome back veteran shortstop Alcides Escobar, he likely won’t cost all that much given his ongoing struggles at the plate. The three players under consideration here, though, will surely command over $10MM annually over lengthy terms.

Cain might be the best of this group and will likely require the lowest total guarantee, mostly because he’s already 31 years old — which will also add to the Royals’ trepidation in paying to keep him. Hosmer has yet to turn 28 and is coming off of his best season in the majors, though he’ll probably be the most expensive and is probably also the easiest of this group to replace (given the glut of older power hitters on the market). Moustakas, 29, might offer something of a middle ground between the others and did just set the organizational record with his 37th dinger, though he won’t be cheap and remains an iffy performer in the on-base department.

So, how do you see this playing out? (Link for app users.)

Which of the Royals' 3 Free-Agent Stars Will Return?
None 37.05% (3,609 votes)
Hosmer only 17.60% (1,715 votes)
Moustakas only 10.17% (991 votes)
Hosmer & Moustakas 10.06% (980 votes)
Cain only 9.78% (953 votes)
Cain & Moustakas 6.17% (601 votes)
Cain & Hosmer 5.87% (572 votes)
All 3.30% (321 votes)
Total Votes: 9,742
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Kansas City Royals MLBTR Polls

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Carter Capps To Undergo Surgery For Thoracic Outlet Syndrome

By Jeff Todd | September 25, 2017 at 7:38pm CDT

Padres righty Carter Capps will undergo surgery to address thoracic outlet syndrome, Dennis Lin of the San Diego Union-Tribune reports on Twitter. He had been dealing with a blood clot, leading to the diagnosis and course of treatment.

Obviously that’s not the best news for a hurler that only recently made it back from Tommy John surgery. It’s considered possible, though, that he’ll be able to return in time to participate fully in Spring Training.

Even if Capps is ready to join in when camp opens, it remains to be seen whether he’ll do so with the Padres. If he’s tendered a contract, the 27-year-old is not going to earn much more than the $987,500 he did this year, but it’s also possible that San Diego will simply decide it does not want to dedicate a 40-man spot to Capps.

After all, the once-dominant reliever did not quite look himself upon his return this year. In 12 1/3 innings, he allowed nine earned runs with seven strikeouts and two walks. His once-blistering fastball sat at just over 93 mph. And his swinging-strike rate — which topped out at a monstrous 25.4% in his unreal 2015 season — fell all the way to a marginal 7.8%.

It’s a short sample, to be sure, but Capps clearly has a ways to go to recapture any of the immense ability he showed in that magical 2015 campaign, when he struck out 58 batters and allowed just four earned runs in 31 frames. Given his young age, though, Capps will have plenty of opportunities to make it back even if the Padres decide against it.

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San Diego Padres Carter Capps

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NL Notes: Cardinals, Jeffress, Kang

By Kyle Downing | September 25, 2017 at 5:38pm CDT

In a Q&A led by Derrick Goold of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch, Cardinals Chairman Bill DeWitt provides some reflections on the team’s performance so far in 2017, as well as some subtle insights into the organization’s plans for this offseason and the future. DeWitt mentions that the organization can afford to add payroll, but won’t “spend just to spend”. He also explains that the Cards prefer a balanced core of young starting pitchers and position players, rather than trying to build with a focus on one or the other. DeWitt expressed confidence in Mike Matheny as the right person to lead the Cardinals into the future. The interview is a great read, particularly for a fan of the Cardinals franchise.

Here are some other notes from around the National League…

  • Brewers reliever Jeremy Jeffress talks about his rehab process and desire to remain in Milwaukee in an interview with Todd Rosiak of The Journal Sentinel. Jeffress expresses hope that the Brewers will tender him this coming offseason, gives some explanation behind his struggles in Texas, and talks about being traded to the Royals early in his career. Jeffress has seen his walk rate spike dramatically since being traded to the Rangers at the deadline last season; he’s walked 4.74 batters per nine innings since that trade. However, his 67% ground ball rate so far in the second half of 2017 is intriguing and certainly valuable if he can sustain something close to it.
  • Pirates’ infielder Jung Ho Kang has been granted an exemption to play in the Dominican Winter League despite being on the restricted list, Bill Brink of the Pittsburgh Post-Gazette reports. Kang has not earned any salary or service time during the 2017 season, because the Department of State denied his application for a visa after a third drunk driving incident in his home country of South Korea. Major League Baseball and the MLBPA reached an agreement to allow Kang to play in winter ball in the offseason in hopes that he can get a visa for 2018.
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Milwaukee Brewers Pittsburgh Pirates St. Louis Cardinals Jeremy Jeffress Jung-ho Kang

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Tendering A Contract To Matt Harvey

By Steve Adams | September 25, 2017 at 3:49pm CDT

As part of our ongoing MLBTR Mailbag series, we’ve decided to begin branching off frequent topics of interest and expanding upon them at greater length than we’d normally spend in one post that answers four to six separate questions. This will be the first of several such posts to follow in the new format, and you can submit questions for consideration here via email: mlbtrmailbag@gmail.com.

Why would the Mets not non-tender Matt Harvey? Are 7.00-ERA pitchers with upside really that hard to find? Or is there an emotional/attachment thing going on? — Josh M.

Josh isn’t the only person with this sentiment — especially based on the comments in the wake of GM Sandy Alderson’s suggestion that the Mets will indeed tender a contract to Harvey this winter.

The frustration that Mets fans feel with the performance of the former “Dark Knight” and Harvey’s own frustration (which he’s voiced on multiple occasions) are understandable. To borrow from Harvey’s own blunt self-evaluation, he’s been “terrible all the way around” in 2017 — his first season back from surgery to alleviate thoracic outlet syndrome last summer. That operation was the second major surgery in Harvey’s career, as he also had Tommy John surgery following the 2013 campaign.

The attrition rate following TOS surgery seems to be greater than after Tommy John surgery, and Harvey is one of the only pitchers in recent memory to have both operations in such close proximity. Viewed through that lens, this season’s 6.60 ERA through 88 2/3 innings perhaps shouldn’t be all that surprising. Harvey has been working with diminished velocity (though it’s been trending up lately) and has posted career-worst K/9 (6.5) and BB/9 (4.5) marks while averaging 2.03 HR/9. It has not, to put it mildly, been a very good season.

That said, it’s been just two years since Harvey came back from TJS to throw 189 1/3 innings in the regular season with a 2.71 ERA, 8.9 K/9, 1.8 BB/9 and a 46 percent ground-ball rate. Harvey further rose to the occasion with 26 2/3 innings of 3.04 ERA ball in the postseason (though Mets fans will forever debate Terry Collins’ decision to leave him in for the ninth inning of a Game 5 against the Royals). Simply put, from 2012-15, Harvey was one of the best young pitchers on the planet. Even his 2016 season, which ended with a disappointing 4.86 ERA and his eventual TOS procedure, featured solid K/BB numbers and a 3.47 FIP.

To the greater point here, it is indeed possible to find passable arms at bargain one-year rates in free agency. However, Harvey is in for at best a modest raise on this season’s $5.125MM salary. Looking back over the past few offseasons, the free agent starters that have signed one-year deals worth less than $6MM include: Clayton Richard, Jhoulys Chacin, Jered Weaver, Trevor Cahill, Tommy Milone, Jesse Chavez, Mat Latos, Tim Lincecum (mid-season in 2016), Henderson Alvarez, Brandon Beachy, Bud Norris and Aaron Harang. Weaver was 34 when he signed his deal (and retired partway through the 2017 season). One could argue that Lincecum or perhaps Beachy carried significant upside, but both were returning from serious injuries, were older than Harvey and were further removed from success than Harvey is now.

Last offseason, Derek Holland signed a one-year, $6MM contract with the White Sox after throwing a combined 203 innings from 2013-16. With all due respect to Holland, his upside isn’t on par with that of Harvey. Meanwhile, Tyson Ross also signed for one year and $6MM after undergoing his own TOS surgery. If Ross was able to find $6MM on the heels of a season he spent entirely on the DL — his lone appearance in 2016 came on Opening Day — that should be an indication that paying a younger Harvey at a roughly comparable rate isn’t exactly an overpay by market standards.

Moreover, if the 2017 season proved anything, it’s that the Mets need to stockpile as many reasonably priced arms and rotation depth options as possible. With injuries to Harvey, Steven Matz, Noah Syndergaard, Seth Lugo, Zack Wheeler and Robert Gsellman impacting the staff at various points throughout the season, it doesn’t seem prudent to be cutting ties with a fairly inexpensive young arm. If anything, the Mets will probably aim to bring in some low-cost veterans on minor league deals that could be stashed at Triple-A and emerge as big league options in 2018 should their injury issues persist.

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MLBTR Mailbag MLBTR Originals New York Mets Matt Harvey

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Sorting The Starting Pitchers Of The 2017-18 Free Agent Class

By Steve Adams | September 25, 2017 at 1:30pm CDT

With the playoff picture largely taking shape and the majority of clubs around the league eliminated (or virtually eliminated) from postseason play, a number of teams and fans are looking to the offseason and the 2018 campaign and envisioning how best to augment their 2018 rosters.

The 2017-18 free agent class has a stronger group of starting pitching than the 2016-17 class (though that was a low bar to clear), and while there are a limitless factors that go into evaluating pitchers and determining their worth, there are plenty of surface-level indicators that can be helpful in identifying potential upgrades. For the purposes of this post, I’ve used Fangraphs’ customizable leaderboards to make a list of all of the starters likely to hit the open market this winter (excluding those with no-brainer club options like Chris Sale and Madison Bumgarner as well as players that’ll obviously forgo opt-out clauses such as Wei-Yin Chen and Ian Kennedy). It’s not yet a given that Masahiro Tanaka will opt out of the remaining three years and $67MM on his contract, but given his strong strikeout, walk and ground-ball rates (leading to a 3.61 xFIP and 3.67 SIERA), I’ve included him on these lists as well.

Though there are dozens of ways to evaluate, here’s a look at the top arms on the market (min. 20 innings as a starter) in terms of velocity, missing bats, limiting walks and inducing favorable contact. (And thanks to the folks over at Fangraphs for being an always invaluable source of info.)

Hardest Throwers (Fangraphs leaderboard)

League average = 92.4 mph

  1. Tyler Chatwood*: 94.6 mph average fastball
  2. Yu Darvish: 94.2 mph
  3. Andrew Cashner: 93.3 mph
  4. Francisco Liriano*: 92.6 mph
  5. Yovani Gallardo: 92.3 mph
  6. Masahiro Tanaka: 92.2 mph
  7. Jake Arrieta: 92.1 mph
  8. Matt Garza**: 91.9 mph
  9. Jesse Chavez/Lance Lynn: 91.8 mph
  10. Alex Cobb: 91.7 mph

*Bullpen work for Chatwood and Liriano was not included.

**The Brewers hold a $5MM club option over Garza, which is a modest price even considering his recent struggles. It’s certainly possible that his option is exercised, which would push Jhoulys Chacin (91.4 mph) up a spot.

Top Strikeout Arms (Fangraphs leaderboard)

League average = 20.6 K%, 7.96 K/9

  1. Yu Darvish: 27.0 K%, 10.02 K/9
  2. Masahiro Tanaka: 24.6 K%, 9.40 K/9
  3. Trevor Cahill*: 24.3 K%, 9.75 K/9
  4. Jake Arrieta: 23.0 K%, 8.66 K/9
  5. Doug Fister: 21.8 K%, 8.47 K/9
  6. Anibal Sanchez: 21.4 K%, 8.59 K/9
  7. John Lackey: 20.6 K%, 7.97 K/9
  8. Ubaldo Jimenez: 20.5 K%, 8.50 K/9
  9. Jhoulys Chacin: 19.9 K%, 7.59 K/9
  10. Francisco Liriano*: 19.7 K%, 8.06 K/9

*Bullpen work from Cahill and Liriano following their respective trades to the Padres and Astros was not included.

Fewest Walks (Fangraphs leaderboard)

League average = 8.1 BB%, 3.13 BB/9

  1. Anibal Sanchez: 5.2 BB%, 2.09 BB/9
  2. Bartolo Colon: 5.5 BB%, 2.26 BB/9
  3. Masahiro Tanaka: 5.6 BB%, 2.15 BB/9
  4. Alex Cobb: 5.9 BB%, 2.21 BB/9
  5. Jeremy Hellickson: 6.8 BB%, 2.58 BB/9
  6. John Lackey: 7.2 BB%, 2.80 BB/9
  7. Jason Vargas: 7.4 BB%, 2.81 BB/9
  8. Scott Feldman: 7.4 BB%, 2.83 BB/9
  9. Ricky Nolasco: 7.6 BB%, 2.95 BB/9
  10. Jake Arrieta: 7.8 BB%, 2.94 BB/9

Best Ground-Ball Rates (Fangraphs leaderboard)

League average = 44.0 percent

  1. Tyler Chatwood: 57.1 percent
  2. Trevor Cahill: 55.4 percent
  3. Jaime Garcia: 54.8 percent
  4. Doug Fister: 51.8 percent
  5. CC Sabathia: 51.2 percent
  6. Wade Miley: 50.9 percent
  7. Masahiro Tanaka: 49.2 percent
  8. Jhoulys Chacin: 49.0 percent
  9. Andrew Cashner: 48.5 percent
  10. Alex Cobb: 47.8 percent

Least Hard Contact (Fangraphs leaderboard)

League average = 32.3 percent

  1. CC Sabathia: 27.3 percent
  2. Jhoulys Chacin: 28.3 percent
  3. Jake Arrieta: 28.9 percent
  4. Trevor Cahill**: 29.0 percent
  5. Andrew Cashner: 29.0 percent
  6. Lance Lynn: 29.1 percent
  7. Tyler Chatwood: 29.5 percent
  8. Francisco Liriano**: 30.1 percent
  9. Jaime Garcia: 30.5 percent
  10. Masahiro Tanaka: 31.3 percent

*Bullpen work from Cahill and Liriano following their respective trades to the Padres and Astros was not included.

Obviously, this is a high-level look at the starting pitching market, though it’s of some note that a few under-the-radar names continually surface in multiple categories. While pitchers like Chatwood and Chacin may not be Plan A for any club looking to bolster its rotation, they’ve somewhat quietly displayed secondary numbers that are generally more impressive than their ERA. Sanchez has had a dismal year with the Tigers thanks to a major penchant for surrendering home runs, but he’s posted a solid 16.2 K%-BB% (league average is 12.5 percent). Fister, meanwhile, has rediscovered his ability to miss bats and has his velocity back up to an average of 89.8 mph, so while his control isn’t as sharp as it once was, he could draw more interest than many would’ve initially thought when the Red Sox claimed him off release waivers from the Angels.

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2017-18 MLB Free Agents MLBTR Originals

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