The Astros finalized their three-year, $54MM deal with Tatsuya Imai this afternoon. It came as a surprise that the Japanese righty ended up in Houston — not because the Astros didn’t need a starter, but due to what appeared to be a tight budget.
Imai settled for an $18MM average annual value that landed below most projections. Houston got a short-term deal at a reasonable salary by offering opt-out chances after each of the first two seasons. RosterResource projects their Opening Day payroll around $242MM. They’re at an estimated $238MM in luxury tax commitments. The Astros also need to pay a $9.975MM release fee to Imai’s NPB club, the Seibu Lions. That does not count against their luxury tax ledger, though it’s a not insignificant sum for what could amount to one year of Imai’s services if he opts out.
The Astros opened the 2025 season with a $220MM payroll. Their season-ending luxury tax number landed just shy of $246MM, subjecting them to a modest ($1.5MM) bill for exceeding the $241MM base threshold. Next season’s cutoff is $244MM. They’re already projected within $6MM of that number. A team’s luxury tax payroll is not finalized until the end of the year, meaning in-season acquisitions count on a prorated basis towards that sum. So do any unlocked incentives and contracts for players on minor league deals who are selected onto the MLB roster.
Early offseason reporting indicated that Houston owner Jim Crane was reluctant to go beyond the tax line for what would be a third straight season. Chandler Rome of The Athletic wrote this morning that remains the case even with Imai on the books.
Will that be a firm mandate? Crane was loath to pay the CBT in each of the past two offseasons as well. That changed quickly in 2024, when they responded to a season-ending injury to Kendall Graveman by signing Josh Hader — a deal that rocketed them into tax territory. Houston stayed below the CBT line entering the ’25 season. Then came an opportunity to reacquire Carlos Correa at the deadline, again pushing them above. The owner has changed his mind before.
As it stands, it’s difficult to see the Astros staying below the tax line throughout the 2026 season. They’d be very limited in what they can accomplish at the trade deadline. RosterResource’s calculation is unofficial and pending resolution on a number of arbitration cases, so there are decent-sized error bars in the $238MM estimate, but the broader point remains that they’re not far below the CBT line. Some clubs prefer to have more than $10MM in payroll room for in-season additions.
That could lead the front office to clear a few million in an offseason trade. Let’s look at how their payroll is shaping up.
Players on Guaranteed Contracts (10)
- Carlos Correa, Jose Altuve, Yordan Alvarez, Christian Walker, Josh Hader, Tatsuya Imai, Lance McCullers Jr., Cristian Javier, Ryan Weiss, Nate Pearson
Correa, Altuve and Alvarez obviously aren’t getting traded. Hader anchors the bullpen and is headed into the third season of a five-year deal; he’s not going anywhere. Imai, Weiss and Pearson signed free agent contracts this offseason. That only leaves three possibilities from this group.
Javier is headed into the fourth season of a five-year, $64MM extension. His deal comes with a $12.8MM luxury tax hit. Tommy John surgery wiped out most of his last two seasons. He made it back for eight starts at the end of last year. His whiff rate was down compared to pre-surgery levels but the raw stuff didn’t look much different. It’s fair to attribute his inconsistency to some rust off the layoff. A team with a deeper rotation might consider selling low in this situation, but that’s not a luxury the Astros can afford. They’d need to replace him in the middle of the rotation and are unlikely to find anyone better in free agency for less than $13MM annually.
McCullers is making $17MM in the final season of his five-year extension. Injuries cost him all of 2023-24. He pitched to a 6.51 ERA around three more IL stints last year. He might be looking at minor league offers if he were a free agent. No one is taking any of this contact unless the Astros attach a prospect to convince a team to pay down a small percentage. Maybe that’d work for a rebuilding club, but McCullers also locked in full no-trade rights when he crossed the 10-year service threshold last season. There’s probably not much to be done about this one.
Of the players on guaranteed deals, that only leaves Walker. He’s owed $40MM over the next two seasons and counts for $20MM against the tax ledger. His first year in Houston was a disappointment. Despite hitting 27 homers, he had a below-average .238/.297/.421 batting line over 640 plate appearances. Walker’s typically excellent defensive metrics tanked. He picked things up offensively with a near-.800 OPS in the second half, though even that narrative is clouded by a .277 on-base percentage in September.
Altogether, Baseball Reference graded Walker as a replacement level player. FanGraphs credited him with one win. He wouldn’t come close to $40MM for his age 35-36 seasons if he were a free agent. Even getting another team to cover half the contract would be a stretch. (Ryan O’Hearn, who is two years younger, just signed a two-year deal at $14.5MM annually coming off a .281/.366/.437 season that was valued between 2-3 WAR.) The Astros could probably find a taker if they paid Walker down to $7-8MM per season, yet that’d be a lot of dead money to eat a third of the way into the contract. General manager Dana Brown downplayed the chance of moving Walker at the GM Meetings in early November, calling him the team’s “everyday first baseman.”
Arbitration-Eligible Players (12)
- Enyel De Los Santos, Bryan Abreu, Steven Okert, Isaac Paredes, Jesús Sánchez, Jeremy Peña, Jake Meyers, Hunter Brown, Yainer Diaz, Nick Allen, Bennett Sousa, Hayden Wesneski
There’s no chance of a Hunter Brown trade. Dana Brown said at the Winter Meetings that teams weren’t even asking about Peña because they’re aware “there’s no way” they’d move their franchise shortstop (via Rome).
De Los Santos will make $1.6MM after avoiding arbitration. The Astros could have non-tendered him if they just wanted that small amount off the books. Okert, Allen, Sousa and Wesneski are all projected by MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz for $2MM salaries or less. Savings compared to the $780K minimum would be negligible. They’re useful role players or, in Wesneski’s case, a potentially valuable long-term piece.
Abreu ($5.9MM projection) and Diaz ($4.5MM projection) are probably too valuable to trade. The former is their best setup man, the latter their starting catcher. While there’d be significant interest in both, they’re not easily replaced by someone making the league minimum. That leaves three players: Paredes, Meyers and Sánchez.
Paredes is projected for a $9.3MM salary and has two years of remaining control. The GM said in November that the team had “no interest” in moving him. Paredes had an excellent start to his Astros tenure, hitting 20 homers with a .254/.352/.458 line over 438 plate appearances. He missed most of the second half with a significant hamstring injury. The Astros responded by acquiring Correa to play third base. Paredes could factor in at second base but is unlikely to be a strong defender there. Walker is penciled in at first for now with Alvarez and Altuve splitting left field and designated hitter.
The Astros dangled Meyers for a controllable starter early in the offseason. It would’ve been a bit of a sell-high situation on the heels of a career-best .292/.354/.373 showing at the plate. He’s less likely to move now that the Astros dealt outfield prospect Jacob Melton to Tampa Bay in the three-team trade to land starter Mike Burrows. Meyers’ $3.5MM projection isn’t onerous, and trading him would place a lot of faith in rookie Zach Cole to step up as an everyday center fielder.
That may leave Sánchez as their top candidate for a pure salary dump move. He’s projected for a $6.5MM salary, and it came as a surprise that Houston tendered him a contract at all. Sánchez was a disappointment after a deadline deal from Miami, batting .199/.269/.342 over 160 plate appearances while making a handful of defensive lapses. They could shop Sánchez and add a cheaper left-handed free agent outfielder (e.g. Mike Tauchman, Michael Conforto) to compete with Cole and Cam Smith for right field playing time.
Yes, it will spur and Astros trade, and all Astros fans should know. I would disagree that Bryan Abreu is too valuable to trade. (Look at the Tucker trade), Javier is making 21.4 million too.
I think that either Walker/Paredes will go. Astros likely trade Sanchez, while Meyers will still be dangled. McCullers Jr. is never going to accept a trade, so he’s stuck. I think that when he goes, we can sign a Hunter Brown extension or a Jeremy Pena extension. When it comes to a Diaz trade, we get Caratini first, and that will be a massive haul. We could start offloading per-arb players to stack up the millions, but there aren’t that many that we can offload. Trading Sanchez, Paredes/Walker, and maybe some more DFA’s are the easiest ways to dump. But who knows, maybe the Astros have something up their sleeve we don’t know.
You shop Sanchez, and then after trading him, you use your inner players to replace him and also stack up the bench, though that’s not related.
We’re not extending either Peña or Brown. We’re not going to do it, but trading Peña would net a nice haul to help rebuild the farm system.
Maybe not Pena, but there’s still enough time to get our payroll down. The Astros spend up to the luxury tax threshold. So Brown is a free agent up after the 2028 season, so still time. But Pena is a free agent earlier, and we may not have enough time to extend them, but an extension would be nice. It’s not impossible, but still unlikely for Pena, and too early for Brown.
It’s hard to see anyone trading for Walker, Houston would have to take on 50% of that contract and include a better prospect than they would receive. May have to hold off until after the season begins and hope he shows some improvement to move him to. Maybe a team with an injury would be willing to take on more $.
Paredes would bring in a few good players, but he’s their 2nd best hitter. His contract is very manageable for what he brings. I don’t see them getting better moving him.
Nobody is trading for Walker unless the Astros pay most of the contract which makes no sense when they need to shed cash.
They could move both Paredes & Sanchez to SFG, if they’re interested in an old theater in return.
Paredes is going to fetch some good stuff. Sanchez, well… umm… that’s… err… something else.
Paredes & Sanchez for the O’Farrell Theatre. Done….
Sweet !
We gotta keep the popcorn maker tho.
@ oldgfan
What team are you a fan of?
Giants.
They bought the Curran Theater this offseason. Bad timing/optics.
Oh, um. Why do your think the Astros will trade Sanchez and Paredes for a theater?
Hopefully sarcasam, but if you really want them, what would you offer.
Ya, sarcasm.
They do need a RF & 2B, but would rather invest in a 100 year old theater.
It is classy, but can’t hit at all.
This is one of those scenarios where a team like the Rockies should just offer to take someone off their hands like McCullers or Sanchez. Ask for a prospect back and just use them as a body on the roster. Not sure the Astros are thrilled about trading prospects but maybe something like France and Sanchez to the Rockies for a reliever?
Which reliever?
I could see something like Christian Walker and a mid range prospect for Antonio Senzatela working. Senzatela would offset the salary a little for Colorado. And getting Walker on the team means they wouldn’t have to face him anymore. Walker is one of the best Coors Field hitters in history. The only potential downside is that he wouldn’t be facing Colorado pitching anymore when playing there. For Houston, they would get a veteran coming off a couple of injury plagued years that could be in line for a bounce back season being one more year removed from TJ. More importantly for them, they would save 8 million this year and 20 minus the buyout for next year.
If the Pirates miss out on Okamoto I would take Paredes in a second.
Hader is the one to trade. They could get MLB ready OF and a RP
Hader is not going. Unless you have a monster package to offer, it’s no. Tell me what you monster godfather package is.
Who says NO, Abreu and Myers to the Orioles for Cowser?
Hader has a full no trade clause and with money owed to him you aren’t getting back good prospects. The Correa trade was a mistake, Put them over the tax in 2025 and complicated the infield situation.
Correction: Hader is getting back a good haul.
O’s say no. Correa trade was good and bad in different ways. Also, yes Hader isn’t going to be traded.
The orioles stupidly believe cowser is a core player, so they decline. For what it is worth, neyers is a JAG- only one decent year of production.
Neyers? Do you mean Meyers, as in Jake Meyers? Or Neyens, as in Xavier Neyens (the Astros #2 prospect)? And what about Abreu.
As a Mets fan I would take Walker and Hader, Walker plays 1b with Polanco moving to DH.