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Blue Jays Notes: Prospects, Osuna, Anderson, Urena

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The 2017-18 international market has only been open for a little over two months, but Baseball America’s Ben Badler already has a preview (available to BA subscribers) of 10 notable prospects who will be available in the 2018-19 int’l class, which opens next July 2.  Dominican shortstop Orelvis Martinez projects to have the largest bonus of this group, as the 15-year-old is expected to receive over $3MM from a team, with the Blue Jays reportedly favorites.  The Jays have been active on the international front in recent years, most notably landing star prospect Vladimir Guerrero Jr.  Badler’s piece outlines which teams are connected to the other nine prospects, as well as details on the Rangers and Yankees potentially still lined up to sign well-regarded prospects in the current international class (or eyeing Shohei Otani this winter).

Here’s the latest from Toronto…

  • Roberto Osuna has struggled in recent weeks, though as Sportsnet’s Shi Davidi notes, perhaps the only surprise is that Osuna went almost three full seasons into his career before hitting an extended slump.  Osuna is still 22 and he has outstanding peripherals (11.6 K/9, 8.44 K/BB rate), plus his problems could stem from incorporating a sinker and cutter into his repertoire, as opposed to his old fastball/slider mix.  The counter-argument is provided by Jonah Keri, writing for the Athletic (subscription required), who suggests that the Jays may want to consider trading Osuna while he still has value.  Osuna’s velocity drop and 10 blown saves are both concerns, and Keri raises the point that hitters may simply be starting to figure Osuna out, as it’s rare for relievers to remain consistently dominant.
  • Brett Anderson has a 3.06 ERA over his first three starts in a Jays uniform and he has yet to walk a batter over his 17 2/3 innings.  As Sportsnet’s Arden Zwelling notes, Anderson is rebuilding his value for free agency this winter and even putting himself into the Blue Jays’ rotation plans.  “I think everybody’s looking at him to see what’s available for next year,” manager John Gibbons said.  “Hey, maybe if he’s really good they want to re-sign him. He’s experienced this place, maybe he likes it here, too.”  Marcus Stroman, J.A. Happ and (health permitting) Aaron Sanchez are the only locks for the 2018 rotation, as Marco Estrada is headed for free agency and Joe Biagini’s future may be in the bullpen.
  • Richard Urena is off to a nice start in his Major League career, though the young shortstop seems likely to begin the 2018 season at Triple-A rather than on the Jays’ roster, Sportsnet’s Shi Davidi writes.  Urena was something of a surprise call-up, going directly from Double-A to the bigs without a stop at Triple-A Buffalo since the Jays were in need of middle infield help.  As such, his September playing time “is more a growth experience than audition for next year,” Davidi notes.  Urena is still just 21 years old and, at Triple-A next year, he’ll give the Blue Jays some available depth at shortstop or second base, which is necessary given the checkered injury histories of Troy Tulowitzki and Devon Travis.

Injury Notes: Contreras, Fowler, Syndergaard, Heaney

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Here’s the latest on some injury situations around baseball…

  • The Cubs announced that catcher Willson Contreras has been activated from the 10-day disabled list.  Manager Joe Maddon told MLB.com’s Carrie Muskat (Twitter links) and other reporters that Contreras is available to play, though the team will only gradually work him back into the lineup, such as not using Contreras for a full game.  Contreras has been sidelined for the last month due to a hamstring strain, which interrupted a very strong season for the 25-year-old.  Prior to the injury, Contreras had posted a .274/.342/.519 slash line and 21 homers over 378 plate appearances, spending the bulk of his time at catcher but also playing a few games in both corner outfield and infield spots.
  • Dexter Fowler will be out of action “for at least a few days” due to a left knee contusion, MLB.com’s Jenifer Langosch reports (Twitter link).  Fowler suffered the injury crashing into the outfield wall in pursuit of an Adam Frazier fly ball last night, and Fowler was forced to leave the game.  The good news is that an MRI didn’t reveal any structural damage to Fowler’s knee.  Fowler as been productive (.255/.356/.470, 15 homers) when he’s been able to play this season, though a variety of injuries has limited the Cardinals outfielder to 436 PA and 106 games.
  • Due to what the team described as “general soreness,” Mets right-hander Noah Syndergaard won’t throw any simulated innings today, Kristie Ackert of the New York Daily News reports.  Syndergaard threw three innings in a minor league rehab start on Thursday and was supposed to toss some simulated frames today in the latest step of his recovery process.  Syndergaard has missed much of the season due to a partially torn lat muscle, and with the Mets out of contention and few games left on the schedule, any sort of notable setback could end Syndergaard’s chances of returning to the mound in 2017.
  • Andrew Heaney left his start last night during the third inning due to shoulder tightness, though the Angels right-hander tells Jeff Fletcher of the Orange County Register and other reporters that he’s “not very concerned” about the injury.  Heaney only just returned from Tommy John rehab in August and has made five starts (to a 7.06 ERA in 21 2/3 IP) for the Halos.  A shoulder issue is less of a red flag than an elbow or forearm problem given Heaney’s history, and he said he hopes to soon resume throwing.

MLBTR Originals

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Here’s the recap of all the original content from the past week at MLB Trade Rumors…

  • MLBTR launched the “Three Needs” series, detailing three pressing offseason needs for teams that have a lot of work ahead of them this winter in the wake of disappointing 2017 seasons.  The Giants were the first team featured, as Steve Adams highlighted San Francisco’s need for upgrades in the outfield, third base and in the middle of the rotation.
  • Twins right-hander Trevor May took over a special edition of the MLBTR Mailbag, answering reader questions about his Tommy John rehab, how players deal with trades, and several other topics.
  • Veteran righty Tim Dillard returns with his latest Inner Monologue, sharing some insight into the Triple-A playoffs, introducing the PONAR statistic and introducing new ways to befriend strangers on a plane.
  • Andrew Cashner has posted some good results for the Rangers this season, though his lack of strikeouts and injury history are question marks for teams that may look into signing the right-hander as a free agent this winter.  Jeff Todd explores Cashner’s pros, cons, comparables and potential market in a Free Agent Stock Watch piece.
  • September isn’t usually a big month for contract extensions, though Jeff Todd lists several notable players from the last six years who have inked significant new contracts just weeks before hitting free agency.
  • Giancarlo Stanton hit his 54th home run of the season last night, inspiring Connor Byrne to ask MLBTR readers how many homers they think the Marlins slugger will post before the year is out.  Over 55% percent of respondents feel Stanton will finish with between 61-64 dingers.

Mets Notes: Warthen, Offseason, Injuries

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Here’s the latest from Citi Field…

  • Pitching coach Dan Warthen had intended to retire after the season but now would like to return in 2018, he tells Kristie Ackert of the New York Daily News.  Despite Warthen’s plans, “after this year, I want one more year. I don’t want to leave them [the pitching staff] like this.”  Warthen, who has been the Mets’ pitching coach since June 2008, is respected around the game and is popular with his pitchers and Mets owner Fred Wilpon, though he does have some critics in the organization.  Warthen and the rest of the Mets’ coaching staff (as well as manager Terry Collins) aren’t under contract for 2018, and with wide speculation about Collins’ future, it stands to reason that a coaching shakeup could take place if New York does indeed make a managerial switch.
  • The Mets face a difficult offseason, Joel Sherman of the New York Post writes, as the team wants to stay competitive but may cut payroll, and planning ahead is difficult since the Mets don’t know how many of their multiple injured stars will rebound in 2018.  If the Mets “really a big-market team,” Sherman opines, they’ll bring back Asdrubal Cabrera, Juan Lagares and Matt Harvey next year at a total price tag of roughly $23MM to provide needed roster depth and flexibility.  For external help, Sherman feels that the Amazins could add some slightly less-expensive help (he lists such names as free agents Eduardo Nunez, Howie Kendrick, Logan Morrison or possible trade targets Dexter Fowler and Ian Kinsler) rather than aim for a big-ticket free agent like Mike Moustakas or Eric Hosmer.
  • Trades could be difficult, Sherman adds, since the Mets have a thin farm system and (even more troublingly) several of their younger players took hits to their trade value in 2017 due to injury or under-performance.  First baseman Dominic Smith, for instance, hasn’t produced much in first taste of MLB action, and despite being a top-50 prospect, still has some doubters who question his fitness and ability to hit for power at the big league level.  Given these concerns, as one executive puts it, “that is a hard sell and then (the rival GM) is going to ask, ‘why are the Mets willing to get rid of him?’ ”
  • The Mets don’t seem to be planning any changes to their training staff or their affiliation with the Hospital for Special Surgery in the wake of the injury-ruined season, according to Newsday’s David Lennon.  In an effort to simplify and improve how the team releases medical information to media and fans, the Mets have been publishing a daily injury report listing the progress, prognosis and forthcoming steps for each injured player.

MLBTR Poll: Giancarlo Stanton’s 2017 HR Total

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Marlins right fielder Giancarlo Stanton continued marching toward the 60-home run mark on Saturday when he slugged his 54th long ball of the year, a 456-foot shot off Braves left-hander Max Fried. While the 68-74 Marlins lost the game and have dropped 11 of their past 13 to plummet from playoff contention, Stanton still seems likely to garner serious NL MVP consideration even if he doesn’t reach 60. The 27-year-old currently leads every other NL player by at least 17 homers, after all, and has slashed an incredible .282/.377/.646 in 604 plate appearances.

Giancarlo Stanton

The excellence Stanton has exhibited could be difficult for MVP voters to ignore, particularly if he does reach the celebrated 60 figure by season’s end. In doing so, the 27-year-old would follow Barry Bonds, Mark McGwire, Sammy Sosa, Roger Maris and Babe Ruth as the sixth player to accomplish the feat (McGwire and Sosa each did it multiple times) and the first since 2001. That was the year Bonds smashed a record 73. Remarkably, Stanton may have outdone his former hitting coach had he been as otherworldly in the season’s first half as he has been since the All-Star break.

While Stanton racked up a “mere” 26 long balls in 369 PAs between Opening Day and mid-July, he’s already at 28 through 235 attempts over the nearly two months since the Yankees’ Aaron Judge upstaged him at the Home Run Derby on Stanton’s turf in Miami. Stanton has gone yard every 8.39 trips to the plate in the second half, which would translate to 83 over a 700-PA season (Stanton’s on track for 698). Should Stanton continue to stay healthy and hammer HRs at his second-half pace, he’d finish the year with around 65 – a number only Bonds, McGwire (twice) and Sosa (twice) have matched or exceeded.

As superb as Stanton has been, it goes without saying that it will be immensely difficult for him to keep raking at his current clip over the Marlins’ final 20 games of the season. But both the slate of mostly unspectacular starting pitchers scheduled to face Stanton over the next couple weeks and the Marlins’ three-game set at Colorado’s Coors Field thereafter should aid him in his quest to go deep at least six more times this year. Clearly, Stanton’s on the verge of posting one of the most awe-inspiring offensive seasons in the history of the sport. The question is: Will he pull it off?

How many HRs will Giancarlo Stanton finish with this year?
Between 61 and 64 54.89% (3,261 votes)
Fewer than 60 21.44% (1,274 votes)
60 16.07% (955 votes)
65 or more 7.59% (451 votes)
Total Votes: 5,941

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

NL Notes: Acuna, Braves, Cubs, D-backs

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Braves outfield prospect Ronald Acuna earned Minor League Player of the Year honors from Baseball America on Friday, before which BA’s Matt Eddy noted that the 19-year-old had one of the finest offensive seasons ever put together by a teenager. Acuna, who climbed from High-A to Double-A to Triple-A in 2017, combined for a .325/.374/.522 batting line and a 155 OPS+ in 612 plate appearances. Only seven other teenage players – all household names in Andruw Jones, Gary Sheffield, Alex Rodriguez (twice), Jason Heyward, Gregg Jefferies, Justin Upton and Mike Trout – bettered Acuna’s OPS+ in an individual season, Eddy notes. Based on Acuna’s Double-A and Triple-A production, Eddy writes that he stacks up closely with where A-Rod, Sheffield, Jones, Jefferies, Heyward, Trout, Melvin Upton, Justin Upton, Adrian Beltre and Delmon Young were at similar stages of their minor league careers. For the most part, that’s special company.

A bit more from the NL…

  • Cubs catcher Willson Conteras has been out with a hamstring strain since Aug. 9, but manager Joe Maddon suggested Saturday that he’s closing in on a return. “It’s not impossible [he could be activated on Sunday], but I don’t know that it’s going to happen,” Maddon said, per Carrie Muskat of MLB.com. “It’s just a matter of when you talk to him, ’How are you seeing the ball? What do you feel like at the plate? How does the leg feel?'” Although Conteras has been among the majors’ best catchers this year, the first-place Cubs have managed to increase their lead in the NL Central during his absence from 1.5 games to three. Among the reasons: Fellow backstops Alex Avila and Rene Rivera, both of whom joined the Cubs as recent acquisitions, have filled in with aplomb offensively.
  • Diamondbacks manager Torey Lovullo announced Saturday that the team has shut down right-hander Randall Delgado and added that he could miss the rest of the season, according to Kellan Olsen of Arizona Sports 98.7. Delgado hasn’t pitched for the D-backs since July 15 on account of elbow issues. He underwent an MRI this week that showed a flexor strain, and the club will send him to famed orthopedist Dr. James Andrews for a second opinion. Flexor strains sometimes portend Tommy John surgery, of course, and having to undergo the procedure at this point would likely keep Delgado out until the 2019 campaign. The swingman was having a nice year before the injury cropped up, as he pitched to a 3.59 ERA with 8.62 K/9 against 2.01 BB/9 across 62 2/3 innings (26 appearances, five starts).

Jimmy Nelson Out For Season

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7:32pm: If Nelson does require surgery, the procedure he’d undergo carries a success rate of better than 90 percent, Rosiak tweets.

12:46pm: The Brewers announced that Jimmy Nelson will miss the rest of the season with a right rotator cuff strain and a partial anterior labrum tear. General manager David Stearns said Saturday that it’s unclear whether Nelson will require surgery, according to Todd Rosiak of the Milwaukee Journal Sentinel (on Twitter).

The premature end to Nelson’s year is a devastating development for the 73-68 Brewers, who trail the NL Central-leading Cubs by four games and sit three games back of the Rockies for the league’s last wild-card spot. The Brewers are currently in the midst of a three-game series against the Cubs and took the opener on Friday, 2-0, behind Nelson. The 28-year-old tossed five innings of four-hit, two-walk ball and added seven strikeouts, and he threw one of those frames with a labrum tear, Adam McCalvy of MLB.com tweets. Nelson suffered the injury on the base paths after hitting a fifth-inning single.

Like his team, Nelson has been a surprising success story this season. The emergent ace posted spectacular numbers across 175 1/3 innings and currently ranks fourth among major league starters in fWAR (4.9), ninth in strikeouts per nine innings (10.21), 10th in groundball rate (50.3 percent) and 15th in ERA (3.49). While Nelson’s brilliant work this year came at a near-minimum salary, his price tag will rise in the offseason. Nelson will take his first trip through arbitration, where the ERA, innings, strikeouts and 12-6 record he logged in 2017 should each help his cause.

As for the Nelson-less Brewers, they’ll likely look to their minor league system for down-the-stretch rotation help, Stearns announced (via McCalvy, on Twitter). Candidates to come up include Triple-A right-hander Taylor Jungmann and Double-A righty Aaron Wilkerson, per McCalvy.

AL Injury Notes: Price, Mariners, Twins, Gomez, Angels

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Red Sox southpaw David Price threw a two-inning sim game Saturday as he continues to work back from forearm problems, Scott Lauber of ESPN.com was among those to report (links here). While Price hasn’t taken the mound for the Red Sox since July 22 and only threw 32 pitches Saturday, they’re hopeful he’ll be able to come back this year as a starter, Lauber notes. The Sox will have a clearer idea about Price’s future after he throws another sim game midway through next week, but the likelihood is that he’ll finish 2017 as a reliever because he won’t have enough time to ramp back up as a starter, Tim Britton of the Providence Journal writes.

More injury news from around the American League:

  • The Mariners will welcome James Paxton and Felix Hernandez back to their rotation during the upcoming week, Greg Johns of MLB.com relays (on Twitter). Both hurlers will hover around the 50- to 60-pitch marks during their first starts back. Paxton went on the disabled list with a strained left pectoral on Aug. 11, depriving the Mariners of a burgeoning ace for a key stretch. Hernandez, who preceded Paxton as the Mariners’ top starter, landed on the DL on Aug. 5 with shoulder bursitis. The 31-year-old previously missed all of May and most of June with the same injury.
  • Twins manager Paul Molitor told reporters Friday that left-hander Hector Santiago is likely done for the season (via Rhett Bollinger of MLB.com). Santiago, who hasn’t taken a major league mound since July 2 because of a shoulder strain, threw just 84 mph to 87 mph in a Triple-A rehab start Sunday (down from his usual low-90s velocity) and is undergoing further testing in Minnesota, according to Bollinger. With his contract set to expire at season’s end, the 29-year-old Santiago may be done as a Twin. Formerly a capable starter with the White Sox and Angels, Santiago has posted unsightly numbers – including a 5.61 ERA and a 28.4 percent groundball rate – over 131 2/3 innings since the Twins acquired him from Los Angeles last summer.
  • Rangers center fielder Carlos Gomez could miss a fair amount of time after suffering a high ankle sprain Saturday against the Yankees, per Gerry Fraley of the Dallas Morning News. Gomez, who departed the game in the second inning after injuring his right ankle, was on crutches and in a walking boot afterward. A lengthy Gomez absence would be the second notable loss in recent weeks for a Texas offense that saw superstar third baseman Adrian Beltre go down with a hamstring strain Sept. 1. While he’s not nearly as impactful as Beltre, Gomez has still had a decent contract year (.251/.337/.459, 2.0 fWAR in 407 plate appearances) for a team that’s three games out of a wild-card spot.
  • Angels third baseman Yunel Escobar had another setback in his rehab from an oblique injury, Jeff Fletcher of the Orange County Register tweets. Nevertheless, manager Mike Scioscia still expects to see Escobar again this season. The impending free agent hasn’t played since Aug. 6 and was in the middle of a mediocre season at the time of his injury (.274/.333/.397 in 381 PAs).

5 Key Stories: 9/3/17 – 9/9/17

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Recapping the top stories from the past week at MLBTR:

Juan Nicasio on the move again: Nicasio went from the Phillies to the Cardinals in a rare September trade, thus continuing a peculiar week-plus for the right-hander. After they couldn’t put together a trade for him via revocable waivers, the Pirates placed Nicasio on outright waivers Aug. 29 in a cost-cutting move, leading the out-of-contention Phillies to claim him on the final day of the month. The Phillies then flipped him to playoff-contending St. Louis this past Wednesday for a quality prospect, infielder Eliezer Alvarez, whom MLB.com ranked 19th among the Redbirds’ farmhands prior to the trade. As an impending free agent, Nicasio might only be a Cardinal for a few weeks. Even if the Cards overcome a four-game NL Central deficit or a three-game disadvantage in the wild-card race, Nicasio won’t be able to pitch in the postseason because they acquired him after the Aug. 31 waiver trade deadline. Nicasio did his part to help the Cardinals play into October in his first appearance, though, as he picked up a four-out save Friday against a familiar team – the Pirates.

Jimmy Nelson

Brewers lose their ace: The Brewers’ already low playoff odds took a hit Saturday when they announced that Jimmy Nelson will miss the rest of the season with a right rotator cuff strain and a partial anterior labrum tear. All the more frustrating for Milwaukee and Nelson is that he suffered the injury while running the bases. The breakout star, 28, was in the middle of another excellent start at the time, one that saw him shut out the NL Central-leading Cubs for five innings in a 2-0 victory.

Pirates retain their brain trust: The Bucs on Tuesday announced extensions for Neal Huntington, the general manager who cut Nicasio, and skipper Clint Hurdle through 2021. While the Pirates are on track to finish under .500 for the second straight season, the seven-year Huntington-Hurdle partnership has mostly yielded positive results. Pittsburgh made the playoffs each season from 2013-15, with the first of those berths ending a 21-year drought for the franchise. Further, as Baseball America’s Ben Badler tweeted this week, the low-payroll club has won the fifth-most games in the majors over the past half-decade.

Potential stars debut: The Nationals, Dodgers and Phillies each called up a top 100 prospect this week. Washington controls the highest-ranked member of the trio, 20-year-old outfielder Victor Robles, who divided this season between the High-A and Double-A levels before the soon-to-be NL East champions selected his contract Thursday. He has collected one plate appearance since his promotion, while the Dodgers’ Walker Buehler and the Phillies’ J.P. Crawford have also seen action. One of baseball’s elite pitching prospects, the 23-year-old Buehler threw two scoreless innings in relief against the Rockies on Thursday. Crawford, a 22-year-old shortstop, is off to a slow start through a meager 16 PAs.

More misfortune for David Wright: The longtime Mets captain and third baseman suffered yet another setback in his rehab and will need rotator cuff surgery. Wright, who previously went under the knife to repair a herniated disk in his neck, won’t play this year after combining to appear in only 75 games from 2015-16. His most recent big league showing came May 1 of last year. With $47MM still owed to him through 2020, the 34-year-old isn’t considering retirement.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

Rosenthal’s Latest: Cashner, Rangers, Moore, Giants, Reds

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The latest rumblings from FOX Sports’ Ken Rosenthal (video link)…

  • Impending free agent right-hander Andrew Cashner told Rosenthal that he hasn’t discussed a new deal with the Rangers and expects to test free agency in the offseason. Cashner also expressed confidence that his production this season should lead to plenty of interest on the open market. The 30-year-old owns an excellent 3.19 ERA and a solid 48.1 percent groundball rate through 146 2/3 innings, though he ranks second last among starters in strikeouts per nine innings (4.79) and third from the bottom in swinging-strike percentage (5.7). While Cashner has been a mixed bag this year, he had a worse 2016 between San Diego and Miami but still landed a $10MM guarantee in the offseason.
  • It’s a safe bet that the Giants will exercise left-hander Matt Moore’s $9MM option for 2018 and retain his $10MM option for 2018 in the offseason, says Rosenthal. Although the 28-year-old Moore has recorded the NL’s highest ERA (5.31) through 162 2/3 innings this season, the Giants would rather bet on a bounce-back 2018 at a reasonable cost than subtract from their pitching depth. Buying Moore out would cost the Giants $1MM next year and $750K in 2019.
  • Reds manager Bryan Price will return next season, but his future beyond then is in question, per Rosenthal, who adds that the club could cut the cord if it doesn’t make legitimate progress in 2018. The Reds have gone just 269-359 in three-plus years under Price and are currently one loss away from guaranteeing their fourth straight sub-.500 season during his reign. There hasn’t been much pressure on Price to this point, though, given Cincinnati’s rebuilding status and its lack of pitching.

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