Hyun-Jin Ryu Undergoes Elbow Surgery
The Dodgers announced that left-hander Hyun-Jin Ryu underwent an arthroscopic left elbow debridement earlier today. The southpaw is expected to be ready for the 2017 season, according to the team.
Ryu, 29, had a brief return to the Majors in 2016 after missing the entire 2015 campaign due to shoulder surgery. Though he did make it back to the mound with the Dodgers this season, his return lasted for just one start — a 4 2/3 inning effort in which he yielded six runs on eight hits and two walks back on July 7. That represented his only big league work since Sept. 12, 2014.
Originally signed to a six-year, $36MM contract out of Korea (plus a $25.7MM posting fee), Ryu looked to be worth the investment for the Dodgers after a brilliant rookie season in 2013 and a strong sophomore effort in 2014. The former Hanwha Eagles standout finished fourth in 2013 Rookie of the Year voting after logging 192 innings of 3.00 ERA ball with 7.2 K/9 against 2.3 BB/9 and followed that up with a similarly excellent 3.38 ERA across 152 innings a year later. While the second two seasons of that six-year pact certainly haven’t gone as the Dodgers had hoped, Ryu still has another two seasons of cheap club control remaining. He’s owed just $7MM in each of the next two seasons — a manageable sum for virtually any club but especially the deep-pocketed Dodgers — though he’ll obviously fall shy of the requisite 750 innings (2013-17) that would allow him to opt out of his contract and test the free agent market a year early.
Most likely, the Dodgers aren’t banking on a full, healthy season for Ryu as they map out their 2017 season, but Los Angeles has built a virtually unprecedented staff in terms of overall pitching depth this year (as The Ringer’s Ben Lindbergh recently profiled at length in an excellent piece), and it’s likely that they’ll do the same in 2017. Ryu joins Clayton Kershaw, Kenta Maeda, Scott Kazmir and Brandon McCarthy as pitchers that are already guaranteed contracts next season (though Kazmir does technically have an opt-out clause, even if he’s unlikely to exercise it), and the Dodgers also have Alex Wood, Jose De Leon, Julio Urias, Carlos Frias, Brock Stewart and Ross Stripling under control either via arbitration or as pre-arb rotation options. Nonetheless, they’ll also presumably be active on both the free agent and trade markets this winter as they look to remain atop the National League West.
CC Sabathia Hopes To Pitch Beyond 2017
It’s nearly a foregone conclusion that CC Sabathia‘s $25MM option for the 2017 season will vest at season’s end — he’d have to be on the disabled list due to a shoulder injury in order for the option not to trigger — but the big lefty tells Mark Feinsand of the New York Daily News that he’s felt so good in 2016 that he isn’t having any thoughts that next year could be his last.
“I know I want to pitch after next year, but I haven’t thought about where or what,” said Sabathia. “Hopefully it will be here. We’ll see.”
While many can accuse Sabathia of putting the cart before the horse, it’s understandable that he’s thinking long term as he puts the finishing touches on his healthiest season since 2013. Myriad knee and elbow injuries limited the former Cy Young winner to just 213 innings in 2014-15, and there was a great deal of uncertainty about his ability to hold up entering the season. Sabathia took to wearing a brace to protect his surgically repaired knee this season, and it would appear that the added support has done him plenty of good. The 36-year-old has pitched to a 4.02 ERA (his lowest mark since 2012) over the life of 172 1/3 innings and averaged 7.5 K/9 against 3.3 BB/9 to go along with the second best ground-ball rate of his career (49.7 percent).
Sabathia will pitch the majority of the 2017 season at the age of 36, so the 2018 campaign he’s targeting at this point would only be his age-37 season — a more than reasonable goal if he proves healthy next year. Of course, Sabathia did hedge his aspirations somewhat, adding the critical caveat: “I know I feel like it’s not my time yet. Barring any crazy injuries, I know I can pitch past next year.”
While no longer the front-line pitcher that he was when he signed a then-record $161MM contract with the Yankees, Sabathia’s 2016 results suggest that there would be plenty of a market for him if he’s able to navigate another season without a significant injury. A pitcher capable of pitching 180 to 200 innings and turning in a roughly 4.00 ERA at Yankee Stadium/in the AL East would certainly have appeal, even if it were only as a fourth starter to round out a team’s rotation and provide some leadership to younger arms.
For those interested in checking out Sabathia’s hypothetical competition, MLBTR has already released its list of 2017-18 free agents, and the crop of starting pitchers looks to be considerably better than the upcoming class. Sabathia is slated to be joined by names like Jake Arrieta, Yu Darvish, Johnny Cueto (if he opts out of his Giants deal), Alex Cobb, Danny Duffy, Tyson Ross and his own teammate, Michael Pineda. Of course, the possibility exists that one or more of those names will sign extensions, and others, most notably Ross, come with plenty of question marks surrounding their health.
MLBTR Chat Transcript
Click here to view the transcript of the MLBTR Live Chat With Jason Martinez: September 28, 2016
Dodgers Release Bud Norris
SEPT. 28: The Dodgers have released Norris, reports MLB.com’s Ken Gurnick (via Twitter).
SEPT. 20: The Dodgers announced today that they have designated right-hander Bud Norris for assignment in order to clear a spot on the roster for left-hander Alex Wood, who has been reinstated from the 60-day disabled list.
Norris, 31, signed a one-year, $2.5MM deal with the Braves this offseason and recovered from a brutal month of April to deliver a dominant performance in May and June (2.08 ERA in 47 2/3 innings between the rotation and bullpen). That strong run allowed the Braves to trade Norris, Dian Toscano and a PTBNL (Alec Grosser) to Los Angeles in exchange for minor league pitchers Caleb Dirks (originally drafted by Atlanta and reacquired in this deal) and Phil Pfeifer.
Norris started out quite well for the Dodgers and made a handful of very effective starts during his time in L.A., but he also mixed in his fair share of clunkers and was torched in four separate bullpen appearances. Ultimately, his Dodgers tenure will finish with a 6.54 ERA in 42 2/3 innings split between the rotation and the ‘pen. While that’s not a terrific stepping stone back into the free-agent market for Norris, his impressive run with the Braves should pique the interest of some clubs looking for a buy-low candidate. Norris, after all, received a Major League deal this past winter on the heels of an even more disappointing 2015 campaign, and free agency will present teams with even fewer rotation options this coming winter.
Athletics Activate Sonny Gray
Sonny Gray is back in action for the Athletics after missing about seven weeks with a forearm strain, with the club announcing his activation from the 15-day DL. Gray is expected to start today for one final time this season, but he’ll be limited to a strict pitch count.
Gray, 26, is looking to end his forgettable campaign on a relative high note by returning to the major league mound. He has twice been sidelined by injury, and has handled only 116 innings to date. The results just have not been there for a pitcher who previously featured as a front-line starter. Gray carries a 5.74 ERA with 7.2 K/9 and 3.3 BB/9 to go with a 54.3% groundball rate.
Those major peripherals aren’t really out of line with his prior marks, but Gray has been plagued by a shift in his ability to suppress the damage on batted balls. He has previously maintained a low batting average on balls put in play while limiting the homeruns, but this year he surrendered a .318 BABIP and 17.8% HR/FB rate, with 10.2 hits and 1.4 dingers per nine leading to a flood of earned runs.
For the A’s, there isn’t much to do but hope that Gray can ramp back up for a fresh start in 2017. Hopefully, at least, the arm troubles can be put behind him after a full winter of rest and preparation. Oakland won’t pay nearly as much as it might have expected for Gray’s services next year, as his first year of arbitration will be built off of this highly disappointing campaign — though the 491 innings of 2.88 ERA pitching he compiled heading into the season will certainly still result in a solid payday.
Reds Claim Patrick Kivlehan
The Reds have claimed utilityman Patrick Kivlehan off waivers from the Padres, the Cincinnati organization announced. Kivlehan had been designated for assignment by San Diego.
Entering the year, the 26-year-old had spent his entire professional career in the Mariners organization, moving steadily up the ladder but never having earned a big league promotion. That all changed with a wild 2016 campaign for the former fourth-round draft pick.
Kivlehan is now on to his fourth team of the year with today’s claim. In between his time in Seattle and his forthcoming stint with Cinci, he saw action in the Rangers and Padres organizations. The latter of those afforded him his first big league opportunity, with Kivlehan logging four hits (including one home run) in his first 19 plate appearances.
For most of this year, Kivlehan has played at Triple-A with his various teams. In 397 total plate appearances, he owns a .254/.302/.416 batting line with 12 home runs. Since beginning his pro career as a third baseman, Kivlehan has increasingly spent time also in the corner outfield as well as at first base.
Cardinals Expect To Retain Mike Matheny For 2017
Cardinals owner Bill DeWitt Jr. says that skipper Mike Matheny will remain at the club’s helm next year, as Jose de Jesus Ortiz of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch reports. Matheny’s contract runs expires after 2017.
There had been at least some outside questions of Matheny’s status, given the Cards’ somewhat disappointing 82-75 mark with five games left to play. St. Louis is still battling for a Wild Card spot, of course — and the team has already qualified for the postseason in all four prior seasons of Matheny’s tenure — but never really competed this year in an NL Central that has been dominated by the rival Cubs.
“Mike’s done a really good job for us,” said DeWitt. “There’s no thought that we’re going to go in any different direction.” The owner went on to explain that Matheny remains “a great leader” who isn’t responsible for what has been “one of those years where things haven’t worked.”
GM John Mozeliak also expressed confidence in the organization’s dugout chief, saying that the 46-year-old Matheny can be unfairly blamed when things don’t go smoothly. “Mike takes a lot of heat, and I’ve defended him and I will continue to,” said Mozeliak. “I really feel like some of the things that we’re dealing with aren’t fair to put on the manager.”
It is certainly hard to argue with Matheny’s overall results, though obviously he was entrusted with a talented and veteran-laden ballclub. Still, the former big league backstop has received his share of criticism for in-game management, focused particularly on his use of the bullpen.
Clearly, though, the Cardinals’ top decisionmakers don’t feel that any shortcomings in those areas override Mathany’s track record and overall management of the club. That being said, it’s not clear that any new contract discussions will take place, and Matheny could enter the 2017 season managing for his future in the organization.
Indians Outright T.J. House
We’ll track today’s minor moves here:
- The Indians have outrighted southpaw T.J. House after designating him for assignment recently, the club announced. As the team notes, House is eligible to elect minor league free agency, meaning he could elect to test the open market. Though he has shown a fair bit of promise in his limited major league opportunities, House has struggled to return to form after losing much of his 2015 season to shoulder issues. He has pitched mostly at the Triple-A level this year, much of it out of the pen, with 72 1/3 innings on his ledger. Though House has posted a 3.98 ERA, he has done so while compiling just 6.2 K/9 against 5.4 BB/9.
Mozeliak: Cardinals Intend To Improve Fielding This Winter
Cardinals GM John Mozeliak called his team’s defense “porous” and suggested that the club would look to improve in that area this winter, Rick Hummel of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch reports.
This year’s St. Louis team has been one of the worst in baseball by measure of UZR. Mozeliak evidently agrees with that assessment, though it should be noted that DRS rates the Cards’ D as average. Apart from the matter of allowing unearned runs, the Cardinals landed in the middle of the pack at preventing earned runs, posting a 4.13 team ERA one season after running up a league-best 2.94 mark.
Clearly, there are other causal factors at play beyond the glovework. The pitching staff’s uninspiring performance is chief among them, but there was also some inevitable regression in store after the team’s hurlers outperformed the peripherals last year. Still, the runs prevented by stellar defense are just as valuable as those avoided owing mostly to pitching.
The question in bolstering the defense, though, is how to accomplish that goal without taking runs off the board by sacrificing productivity at the plate. “A lot of times it’s at what cost,” says Mozeliak. “To get better defense, we may have to take a step back offensively.”
There were some positives on an individual level this year. Kolten Wong and Jedd Gyorko both showed well, with the latter representing a pleasant surprise in a versatile role. The position-switching that the team ultimately employed to account for injuries and keep its best bats in the lineup may ultimately have contributed to the fielding malaise, Mozeliak hinted. (Indeed, Jhonny Peralta was panned by defensive metrics after his move to third base.) But, he added: “I still see clubs that have better defensive flexibility that have played better defense.”
It will be interesting to see what route the organization takes to improve its defensive effort in 2017. The infield seems largely set heading into the winter, but perhaps the outfield will be an area of focus. Matt Holliday remains a question mark — his option probably will not be exercised, but he could be retained — and the Cards could look to fill in with a defensively proficient replacement or instead pursue a new center fielder while shifting Randal Grichuk to the corner.
MLBTR Mailbag: Buchholz, Giants Pen, Dozier, Melancon
Thanks as always for your mailbag inquiries. We can’t get to ’em all, but you’re always welcome to try again in any of our three weekly chats: Tuesdays at 2pm CST with Steve Adams, Wednesdays at 6:30pm CST with Jason Martinez and Thursdays at 2pm CST with yours truly.
If his $13MM option gets declined, what is the free agency outlook for Clay Buchholz? – Jon R.
Well, this all begins and ends with the desperately thin starting pitching class available this winter — though that may be a bit overstated as a driving force for salaries. The low supply is probably more a matter of timing, and a reflection of extensions, than it is pure scarcity.
That being said, the low supply could well play a notable role, especially if several teams decide that Buchholz — moreso than, say, Andrew Cashner — is the bounceback candidate worth targeting. Even in a free agent class rich in pitching last year, plenty of guys got paid; there’s little reason to think that the market will fall this winter.
So, what’s the positive case for Buchholz? It’s fairly straightforward, really: the 32-year-old has had productive major league campaigns in the past, and carries a second-half ERA of 3.59 and has limited opponents to a .234/.302/.347 batting line over those 52 2/3 innings. Plus, it’s arguable that he might benefit from moving beyond the constant scrutiny and the saga-like rises and falls he has experienced of late in Boston.
I’m not quite ready to pin a number on Buchholz, but I do think he’ll sign as a starter and I wouldn’t be shocked if he’s able to command a multi-year deal if his option isn’t picked up. Of course, he may prefer to rebuild his value on a one-year pact; that’s a risky proposition for any pitcher, especially one at his age, but I’d expect he could secure a single-season contract for something in the ballpark of his option price.
It’s obvious the Giants need to upgrade their bullpen this offseason. With 3 (Sergio Romo, Javier Lopez, and Santiago Casilla) all free agents at year end who do you see them targeting in free agency? – Michael C.
In some ways I have to dispute the premise of your question. The Giants’ pen has had some notable lapses, at the back end and at inopportune moments, but overall has been an approximately average unit with a 3.72 ERA. Apart from all those blown saves and a rather low strikeout rate — the San Francisco pen is one of only five with less than eight K/9 — it has been an unremarkable unit.
Now, that’s not to say that there’s nothing to do here. But I make the point because I’m not sure that the Giants are facing much more than a fairly typical number of bullpen openings for a hopefully-contending team.
That may not be as soothing to you as it is to me, but you can also take solace in the fact that most of the Giants’ best relievers this year remain cheap and controllable. And Romo, Lopez, and Casilla combined to earn $19.5MM this year, so there’s a lot of reliever salary coming off the books. All said, there’s a solid-enough base to add onto here, and it ought to be possible for Bobby Evans and co. to pursue a top-tier closer and bolster the remainder of the relief corps this winter.
Brian Dozier is having a career year and most GMs will see that. What would an expected return for him be? How many teams will even be in the market for a defensive deficient 2nd baseman with a little pop in his bat? – Thomas M.
“A little pop”?! Dozier has 42 long balls and a .284 isolated slugging percentage. He’s second in all of baseball in both categories, putting him in the company of lumbering sluggers like David Ortiz, Mark Trumbo, Edwin Encarnacion, and Nelson Cruz.
Dozier isn’t a premium defender, but UZR and DRS have both generally graded him firmly in the vicinity of average. So, imaging being able to take Encarnacion — look it up their batting lines are quite similar — and plug him in at second base, confident that you’d get sturdy glovework.
Sure, we can expect some regression, but he now has a new ceiling that you can’t ignore. Even with a step back, there’s a ton of value here. That’s all the more true given that Dozier is owed just $15MM over the next two years, which is not only enticingly cheap but also represents a very limited commitment to a player who won’t turn thirty until next May.
We will surely examine this question in greater detail and from many angles as the offseason gets underway, but for now, suffice to say that I see Dozier as a legitimately excellent trade chip. Realistically, he’s a good enough asset that many teams could pursue him even if they do not, strictly speaking, have a “need” at second base.
Mark Melancon is viewed by many as an inferior pitcher to Aroldis Chapman and Kenley Jansen, but he is has been just as good in ERA and some other statistics, such as saves. Will he end up getting more money than thought because of this? – Nicolas C.
You can’t look past results and focus only on the peripherals, any more than you can do the opposite. I’m not going to argue that Melancon is better than Chapman or Jansen, but I’m also not going to ignore his 1.82 ERA over 287 frames since the start of 2013 — or the 2.26 FIP in that span which supports the results.
Ultimately, in terms of the comparisons, there is none — but that’s because of an entirely different factor. Jansen turns 29 at the end of this month, with Chapman not far behind him. But Melancon is already more than halfway between his 31st and 32st birthdays.
But your question, really, is a bit different. As I take it, you’re wondering if teams will reach for Melancon because of his gaudy results, even though he doesn’t carry the huge fastball or strikeout rate that we might prefer to see. (Remember, he also doesn’t walk anybody.)
I do think Melancon will be paid handsomely — I agree with MLBTR’s Mark Polishuk that he is a strong candidate for a four-year deal — but that’ll be a reflection more of the ever-evolving valuation of relievers than a return to some knee-jerk day of yore when saves paid. The bottom line is that Melancon remains extremely effective and has been for some time, and he’s going to get rewarded for that. The open market always carries the potential for inflating a given player’s salary, since it is a bidding situation (and one with nebulous organizational valuations and ownership prerogatives in the background), but I don’t see any reason to expect that Melancon will not be valued properly.