Free Agent Notes: Wieters, Yankees, Phillies, Hellickson, Nova
Orioles catcher Matt Wieters appears to be headed for the open market, as Jon Heyman of Fan Rag reports in his latest notes column. Recent chatter between agent Scott Boras and the club did not really even delve into extension talks, because it wasn’t seen as likely to result in any progress with the sides “believed to be tens of millions of dollars apart.” And Baltimore doesn’t seem to be interested in dangling a $16.7MM qualifying offer after Wieters took the one-year deal last offseason. Whether the O’s will pursue Wieters in free agency remains unclear — the team has chased its own free agents in the recent past, and does have a need behind the dish — but it seems that they’ll let him test interest from other clubs regardless.
Here’s more from Heyman’s column along with a few other notes on pending free agents:
- The Yankees have an interesting offseason ahead, with many internal options but also a clear need to improve, and Heyman says the club will be looking to bolster its power while adding to its stable of arms — both in the starting staff and the bullpen. Last winter, New York didn’t give out a single big league contract, but that list of wants certainly suggests that things will be different this time around. One area the club could target, Heyman suggests, is the outfield. There are no shortage of possibilities on hand, with Brett Gardner, Jacoby Ellsbury, Aaron Hicks, and a returning Dustin Ackley joined by less-established players such as Tyler Austin, Rob Refsnyder, Jake Cave, Mason Williams, Aaron Judge, and possibly Clint Frazier in the possible mix. The unit’s overall output this season was uninspiring, though, and its most productive player — Carlos Beltran — is already playing elsewhere.
- While the Phillies are said to be interested in adding to their lineup and rotation, Heyman writes that the club isn’t quite prepared for a major spending spree. Philadelphia’s brass believes that the team is at least a year away from competing in earnest, so it would be somewhat premature to go all-out on this winter’s market. That being said, it does still seem reasonable to think that the team will make some targeted additions as it seeks to ramp back up, with Heyman suggesting a left-handed hitter to spend time at both first base and the corner outfield.
- Though his season ended with an early exit due to a sprained knee, Jeremy Hellickson provided the Phillies with solid output all year — he’ll wrap things up with a 3.71 ERA in 189 innings — and will hit the open market having significantly boosted his stock. He said after tonight’s game that he’s looking for multiple years on his next contract, as Matt Gelb of the Philadelphia Inquirer tweets. It seems rather likely he’ll find that elsewhere, with the big question being whether the Phils will make him a qualifying offer on his way out. That kind of cash could prove tempting, but it seems that Hellickson is hoping for some long-term security, and he ought to do quite well even if he’s tagged with draft compensation given the lack of other options.
- Pirates righty Ivan Nova says he hopes to remain in Pittsburgh and intends to value his comfort there, as Travis Sawchik of the Pittsburgh Tribune-Review reports (Twitter links). Still, he suggested that’s far from a certainty. “I don’t want to leave this clubhouse, to be honest,” he said. “But it’s not up to me.” It’s not immediately clear just what Nova meant by that comment, but certainly there are plenty of other factors at play — on his end, but also for the Pirates and other clubs. The 29-year-old has positioned himself nicely with a huge showing since heading to Pittsburgh. After his outing tonight, Nova has allowed just 21 earned runs over 59 1/3 innings with 47 strikeouts against only three walks.
Indians Hope To Bring Back Mike Napoli For 2017
The Indians hope to re-sign first baseman Mike Napoli this winter, according to a report from Jon Heyman of Fan Rag. It’s not known whether the club will issue the veteran slugger a qualifying offer, he adds.
There certainly seems to be mutual interest, and Cleveland still could use a first baseman/DH to pair with Carlos Santana — whose option seems all but certain to be exercised. Napoli has performed well, swatting 34 home runs in 631 plate appearances and compiling a .242/.338/.473 slash. And he seems to have taken up an important place in the clubhouse.
Still, there are limits to the veteran’s value. He certainly isn’t young, and his total output adjusts to a 116 wRC+ and 106 OPS+, which isn’t exactly world-beating for a player with his defensive limitations. When it comes to the glove, Napoli received negative ratings from both UZR and DRS after previously rating as a quality defender at first.
All said, it’s easy to see both the cause for the continued interest but also for the questions over how much to spend. At $16.7MM, the qualifying offer seems rather steep — particularly with numerous other slugging types set to reach the open market — and it’s not impossible to imagine him accepting.
The best case for Napoli, of course, would be to hit free agency without the necessity of draft compensation hanging over him, as that could significantly tamp down market interest. He will be seeking multiple years this winter, Heyman notes, after settling for a one-year, $7MM contract with the Indians — as well as up to $2MM in plate appearance bonuses that he may max out — following a disappointing 2015 campaign.
While there’s no indication that team and player have discussed a new contract at this point, it’s possible to imagine discussions taking place before the qualifying offer deadline (or while Napoli is mulling it, if issued). Ultimately, it may be that some kind of two-year accommodation to keep Napoli in Cleveland could make sense for all involved.
Jeremy Hellickson Departs Final Start Of 2016 With Knee Sprain
8:12pm: Hellickson has a right knee sprain, the club announced (via Jim Salisbury of CSNPhilly.com, on Twitter). That’s certainly good news for the Phils and for Hellickson, assuming that there’s no further damage.
7:30pm: Phillies right-hander Jeremy Hellickson left the mound tonight with an apparent injury, calling for the trainer in the middle of the fourth inning. This was his final scheduled start of the season, with free agency beckoning at year’s end.
At present, there is no indication of just what went wrong. Certainly, it isn’t clear whether Hellickson suffered any significant injury, let alone one that would impact his upcoming entry onto the open market.
Any uncertainty could have a major impact on a pitcher who’ll be one of the best available through free agency this winter. Philadelphia has been expected to issue a qualifying offer to Hellickson, who’ll presumably decline it in hopes of securing a multi-year pact.
Hellickson, 29, has provided Philadelphia with 185 2/3 innings of 3.78 ERA pitching entering tonight’s contest, with 7.3 K/9 against 2.2 BB/9 and a 40.5% groundball rate. ERA estimators weren’t quite as high on him as the results would suggest, but still valued him — as they have in years past — as a low-4.00 ERA arm.
That’s actually quite a valuable profile, especially in a market that lacks anything close to the firepower we’ve seen in recent years. Hellickson has an argument as the hurler with the most earning potential this winter, with his top competitors likely being the aging-but-suddenly-unhittable Rich Hill and a re-emergent Ivan Nova.
Latest On Michael Brantley’s Shoulder Injury
There were some conflicting indications today about what the Indians can expect from outfielder Michael Brantley in 2017. Jon Heyman of Fan Rag cited sources who suggested that Brantley was at risk of “miss[ing] significant time next year” after undergoing shoulder surgery, but that’s not quite how the team sees it.
Both Brantley and Cleveland president of baseball operations Chris Antonetti contested the idea that such a scenario was likely, as Paul Hoynes of the Plain Dealer reports. “I’m out again?” Brantley queried. “Maybe he knows something I don’t.”
Antonetti reiterated, as he had to Heyman, that the team has not learned anything that would change the initial timeline. Doctors have indicated that the star outfielder would need four to five months to recover from his mid-August surgery date, which would leave him ready to go for Spring Training.
Of course, there still seems to be a fair bit of uncertainty in Brantley’s situation. After all, it had been expected that he’d return to full health for the majority of the 2016 campaign, but the 29-year-old appeared in only 11 games. While it seems there’s hope that the full scope of his shoulder troubles have been identified and addressed, he isn’t exactly dealing with a straightforward issue.
Cleveland has rather remarkably succeeded without Brantley, arguably the team’s best position player, but that doesn’t make him any less important moving forward. He is guaranteed just one more season under his previous extension, with the Indians also possessing a $11MM option (with a $1MM buyout) over his 2018 campaign.
Rockies, Nolan Arenado Have Yet To Discuss Extension
The Rockies have not yet approached star third baseman Nolan Arenado about a contract extension, Patrick Saunders of the Denver Post reports in response to a reader inquiry. Both Arenado and his agent say that no talks have taken place about seasons beyond his current arbitration control.
Certainly, there’s no rush to explore a new pact. Arenado, 25, just played out his Super Two year and has three more years of control remaining. He remains under Colorado’s control through 2019.
That being said, the organization’s leverage only continues to diminish as Arenado’s earnings increase and his play continues to impress. He took down a hefty $5MM this year after a big 2015 season, and he has played his way into a significant raise with an even-more-impressive 2016 campaign.
Over his 678 plate appearances thus far on the year, Arenado carries a .293/.361/.567 slash while racking up forty home runs and 130 runs batted in. Those counting stats are highly valuable in the arbitration setting, all the more so since they are both league-leading totals (as they were in 2015).
In actuality, the offensive production is more very good than great, given that half of it has come at Coors Field. Looking further into the numbers, Arenado owns a strong (but hardly earth-shattering) 123 wRC+. Of course, his true value lies in the fact that he delivers that quality production as a premium defender at the hot corner.
Given his age and productivity, Arenado is unquestionably one of the game’s better young position players. And he’s young enough that any control-enhancing extension would cover late-prime seasons (his age 29 season and beyond). With a big arb salary to start, there’s a stack of cash already all but guaranteed to Arenado, so he’ll be in a nice position to demand — and receive — a major guarantee if the Rox do ever take a pass at a new deal.
Jesus Montero Receives 50-Game Suspension
Blue Jays Triple-A first baseman Jesus Montero has been slapped with a fifty game suspension after testing positive for a banned stimulant, dimethylbutylamine, the league announced. Montero was once a hyped prospect, but has been trying unsuccessfully to revive his career in recent years.
Montero, 26, never panned out with the Mariners after he was shipped to Seattle in exchange for Michael Pineda in rare swap of high-end young talents who had each reached the majors. All said, Montero owns a .253/.295/.398 big league batting line in his 865 career plate appearances.
This year was the first since 2011 in which Montero failed to earn any MLB action. He did post a strong .317 batting average over 518 Triple-A plate appearances. But he only walked 23 times, resulting in a .349 OBP, and didn’t show much of the power that he had long been expected to provide (11 home runs, .438 slugging).
Of course, Montero was originally a catching prospect; now that he’s limited to first base and DH duties, the bar is raised for his bat. It’s not clear what kind of opportunity he’ll have in the future. For one thing, he’ll need to serve his ban at the start of 2017; for another, it’s not his first, as Montero also took a fifty-game hit after he was caught up in the Biogenesis scandal.
MLBTR Live Chat: 9/29/16
Click here to read a transcript of today’s live chat with host Jeff Todd.
Wilson Ramos Discusses Knee Injury
The Nationals and Wilson Ramos suffered a crushing injury earlier this week when Ramos tore his ACL — an unfortunate incident that will obviously prevent him from playing in the postseason and may severely hamper his free-agent stock this winter. The full extent of his injury won’t be known until he goes under the knife, but Ken Rosenthal of FOX Sports tweeted earlier this morning that it’s believed there could be damage to Ramos’ meniscus as well, which certainly wouldn’t make rehab any easier.
Ramos is thinking of the team first, he told reporters, including MASNsports.com’s Byron Kerr (via an interpreter), explaining how difficult it will be if his injury and rehab needs force him to watch the postseason from home rather than alongside his teammates. Manager Dusty Baker said he’s hopeful that Ramos can at least be available to stay with the team during the playoffs so that he can provide leadership and instill some wisdom and scouting reports into backstops Pedro Severino and Jose Lobaton in October.
From a personal standpoint, Ramos said he hopes to remain with the Nationals but conceded that he’s not sure he’ll be able to play with a National League club next season — seemingly implying that his knee injury may require some days as a designated hitter, at least in his first year back: “Unfortunately, this injury happened so close to the end and it may affect whether I’m able to stay with a National League team or not, but if it’s up to me, I definitely would like to keep playing for the Nationals and play as long as I can.”
Ramos was previously a lock to receive and reject a qualifying offer in search of what we at MLBTR were projecting to be a five-year contract, though his untimely injury certainly reduces the likelihood of that scenario and probably eliminates it altogether. It’s difficult to know exactly where to peg Ramos’ free agent stock until we have a timeline for his recovery, and that won’t be known until after his surgery takes place. As MLBTR’s Jason Martinez observed, Yasmani Grandal underwent surgery in July 2013 to repair both his ACL and MCL but was ready for a full Spring Training and the Opening Day roster in 2014. Ramos’ injury, of course, is not only different but is potentially more difficult to rehab, as he’s older and this is the second time he’s torn his right ACL in his career.
If Ramos is able to make it back for a significant portion of the 2017 campaign and an American League club proves to be the best fit based on his medical evaluation, then there should be no shortage of teams on the lookout for a catcher this winter. The Angels, Astros, White Sox, Twins, Orioles and Rays could all use upgrades behind the dish (though a catcher with knee problems may wish to avoid running on the turf at Tropicana Field, and even at a reduced price, Ramos may prove too costly for Tampa Bay).
Phillies Likely To Pursue Veteran Arm In Offseason
While much has been made of the Phillies’ desire to add a veteran bat this winter — two, if manager Pete Mackanin gets his wish — Jim Salisbury of CSNPhilly.com writes that adding a veteran starter to provide some stable innings in the rotation “seems to be as big a priority” for GM Matt Klentak as adding to his lineup.
“I don’t think we will ever have the luxury of ignoring starting pitching,” said Klentak. “Starting pitching is the name of the game. We saw it for the first month or two of the year. Every night we were pitching. Our starters were performing. … We were competitive almost every night. At times, throughout the rest of the season, we’ve sputtered along. … But if you can dictate the pace of the game on the mound, you always have a chance to win. We’re never going to ignore that.”
Right-hander Jeremy Hellickson, acquired with little fanfare this offseason, proved to be that stabilizing force for the Phillies in 2016, but Salisbury writes that he’ll likely go elsewhere (likely after rejecting a qualifying offer, from my own vantage point) and cautions not to expect any type of spending spree on the free agent market this winter. As such, a low-cost free-agent starter — Charlie Morton, Doug Fister and Jorge De La Rosa come to mind as possibilities — or swinging a similar deal to last year’s Hellickson swap could make some sense for the Phils.
Hellickson amounted to a rental for Philadelphia at the time of the deal, as he’d disappointed in his lone season with the D-backs and cost the team a low-level prospect and the willingness to pay Hellickon’s arbitration salary. There may not be a direct comparable to Hellickson’s situation, but the Twins’ Hector Santiago has disappointed in his few months with the team (and has a connection to Klentak from the duo’s Angels days), and left-hander Wade Miley has floundered in Baltimore but still has $9.25MM coming his way through next season. The Phils could also look to acquire a pitcher with a 2017 option that is of borderline value (e.g. Jaime Garcia or Derek Holland) and hope that he experiences better results in 2017.
While some Phillies fans might bemoan the idea of adding a veteran starter when the team has so many enticing young arms, there’s a great deal of uncertainty in Philadelphia’s contingent of young horses. Vince Velasquez has long had durability questions and missed a month on the DL this season, while Aaron Nola had to be shut down for the season due to a UCL/flexor sprain and Zach Eflin underwent surgery on each of his knees. With Hellickson departing, there’s certainly plenty of logic to adding not only a source of potentially quality innings but someone to help mentor the team’s young starters through the ups and downs of a full season at the big league level.
Salisbury also writes that in addition to adding a source of innings to the rotation, the Phillies also figure to look into some veteran relievers. However, Klentak stressed to Salisbury that the Phillies aren’t interested in removing too many opportunities for the team’s younger players to establish themselves. “We want to do everything we can to field the most competitive team on the field that we possibly can,” the GM explained. “We also want to make sure we continue to provide opportunities to our young players to develop. That’s the fine line that we’ll have to tiptoe all offseason.”
Wilson Ramos Diagnosed With Torn ACL
SEPT. 29: Surgery will reveal the full extent of Ramos’ knee injury, but it’s possible there are also some tears in his meniscus, tweets Ken Rosenthal of FOX Sports.
SEPT. 27: Nationals catcher Wilson Ramos has received the devastating news that he has again torn his right ACL, manager Dusty Baker told reporters (via CSN Mid-Atlantic, on Twitter). Ramos previously suffered that injury — which isn’t exactly typical for a catcher — back in 2012.
With just a week left in the regular season, and the division already locked up, the Nationals now face a void at the catching position entering the postseason. Ramos’s huge season — a .307/.354/.496 slash with 22 home runs over 523 plate appearances — was among the factors that helped drive the Nats’ success this year after both player and team disappointed in 2015.
Of course, the injury also casts a massive shadow over Ramos’s upcoming free agency. It had seemed all but certain that he’d receive and decline a qualifying offer, then enter the market in search of four or five years at over $10MM per season. Instead, in all likelihood, he’ll now likely be looking for an entirely different sort of contract.
Washington had reportedly just taken a crack at extending Ramos, though the team’s reported offer (something a bit north of three years and $30MM) didn’t seem all that likely to result in a deal. As I noted in that post, Ramos had already taken on basically all of the risk of performance and injury decline, reducing his incentive to sell his future seasons at a discount. But the relatively meager odds didn’t prevent the catastrophic injury, which is all the more concerning given that Ramos has already had that ligament replaced.
The Nats will go with Jose Lobaton and Pedro Severino for now, and will simply have to make do with that pair for the playoffs. It’s now certain that the organization will need to replace Ramos after the season — there would seem to be little chance that he’ll be ready for the start of 2017 — though it could also sign a gap-filler and explore some kind of multi-year arrangement to keep him around for the future.
Just how things will play out remains unknown, with Ramos’s anticipated timeline still yet to be determined. The repeat nature of the surgery likely increases the uncertainty surrounding his recovery, and the situation as a whole only adds to concerns about how the large-bodied receiver would age, particularly with the litany of leg injuries he has suffered.
On the positive side, “the Buffalo” — as he is affectionately and appropriately known — just turned 29 in early August, so he’s still rather youthful. He has already proved capable of working back from an ACL tear, and has held up to an immense amount of abuse before this hard-luck injury, appearing in 259 games since the start of 2015.
All said, it’s extremely disappointing to see such misfortune for a universally respected player who has already been through so much. Hope remains that he’ll be able to return to being a productive big league receiver, but it won’t be in 2016.
The injury also creates some added opportunity for other catchers on the free agent market, such as Matt Wieters and Jason Castro, who may see their demand increase. And it could shift the trade winds, potentially enhancing the Yankees’ bargaining position with veteran Brian McCann and adding to the appeal of struggling Padres receiver Derek Norris.