Offseason Outlook: Detroit Tigers
A disappointing 2015 season led to a mini fire sale that sent David Price, Yoenis Cespedes and Joakim Soria to new teams in July as well as the eventual dismissal of GM Dave Dombrowski. With longtime Dombrowski lieutenant Al Avila now atop the baseball operations pyramid, the Tigers will again act as buyers this winter in hopes of returning to the top of the AL Central.
Guaranteed Contracts
- Miguel Cabrera, 1B: $280MM through 2023 (including buyout of 2024 option)
- Justin Verlander, RHP: $112MM through 2019
- Victor Martinez, DH: $54MM through 2018
- Anibal Sanchez, RHP: $37MM through 2017 (including buyout of 2018 option)
- Ian Kinsler, 2B: $30MM through 2017 (including buyout of 2018 option)
Arbitration Eligible Players (service time in parentheses; projections via MLBTR)
- Neftali Feliz (5.151) – $5.2MM
- Al Alburquerque (4.147) – $2.1MM
- J.D. Martinez (4.036) – $7.8MM
- Andrew Romine (3.049) – $700K
- Jose Iglesias (3.036) – $1.5MM
- Non-tender candidate: Feliz
Free Agents
Contract Options
- Joe Nathan: $10MM club option ($1MM buyout)
Other Financial Commitments
- Prince Fielder: $6MM (paid to Rangers as part of the 2013 Kinsler/Fielder trade)
For a team with a lot of holes to fill and a potentially expensive arbitration class, the Tigers have a huge amount committed to the 2016 payroll already. Detroit has nearly $111MM committed to just the five players listed above, and that number will rise into the upper-$120MMs simply tendering contracts to the arbitration eligible players above (excluding Neftali Feliz and Josh Wilson, who are near locks to be cut loose) and rounding out the roster with league-minimum players.
The good news for Tigers fans is that the team has averaged about $155MM on their Opening Day payrolls over the past four seasons, and owner Mike Ilitch seems likely to authorize his newly minted general manager to spend aggressively in order to build a contender.
The Tigers’ biggest need is on the pitching staff — both in the rotation and in the bullpen. Last winter’s trades to acquire Shane Greene and Alfredo Simon paid little dividends, and now neither can be definitively penciled into the 2016 picture. Simon is a free agent, while Greene’s season was cut short by a nerve injury. Justin Verlander and Anibal Sanchez are the two Opening Day locks, and I’d expect that left-hander Daniel Norris, the key piece acquired in the David Price trade with Toronto, will be included as well (presuming his surgery to remove a malignant growth from his thyroid goes smoothly. Best wishes to Daniel in his fight against cancer.). Other options for the Tigers include Matt Boyd (who was also acquired in the Price deal but struggled considerably in the Majors), Kyle Lobstein, Buck Farmer, Kyle Ryan and Drew VerHagen. While they have a fairly sizable quantity of arms, the quality of said group leaves something to be desired.
As such, it’s not a surprise to hear GM Al Avila state the goal of adding two starting pitchers this winter. Verlander’s resurgence over the final few months might lessen the need for a front-of-the-rotation arm, and re-signing Price would cloud their long-term payroll outlook anyway. The Tigers are already paying Miguel Cabrera and Verlander a combined $58MM in 2019, and adding Price would seemingly lock them in to a pair of $30MM+ salaries (Cabrera and Price) through the 2022 season. Their pockets are deep, but from a roster construction standpoint, that type of handcuffing so far down the line makes a six- or seven-year commitment to a pitcher that will be in decline for the final few years far too risky.
Rather, second-tier arms could be the preferred route for Detroit. Jeff Samardzija, Ian Kennedy and Scott Kazmir have all been mentioned as possibilities, and any of the bunch would add some much-needed stability to a murky rotation picture. Ilitch is no stranger to dealing with Scott Boras, so perhaps we should include Wei-Yin Chen as a possibility to slot into the middle of the Detroit rotation as well.
If the aim is to suppress the length of commitment to a rotation addition, older-but-solid veterans such as John Lackey and Hisashi Iwakuma make sense on two- or three-year pacts. A one-year reunion with Doug Fister could make sense for both parties if Fister’s preferred option is to sign a short-term deal to rebuild his depleted free agent value. Failing those options, trades for 2016-17 free agents C.J. Wilson or Andrew Cashner could theoretically be reached.
Over the years, the bullpen has been Detroit’s Achilles heel, particularly in the postseason. Former GM Dave Dombrowski gets a bad rap for the team’s bullpen woes, though he frequently sought to improve the relief corps by signing Joaquin Benoit and Joe Nathan in addition to trading for Joakim Soria and Jose Veras (to name just a few moves). In the end, the Tigers have wound up with shaky relievers and wilted at various stages of their recent playoff runs. The lone holdovers from previous years that will be locks for next year’s bullpen include Alex Wilson and Al Alburquerque. Bruce Rondon should factor into the mix as well, but he was sent home from the team in rather embarrassing fashion, with the Tigers citing his “effort level” as a reason for the decision. It remains to be seen how he’ll bounce back from that. It’s possible the decision fractured the relationship between player and team, but it’s equally plausible that the drastic maneuver will serve as a wakeup call for the flamethrowing young righty.
The free-agent market this year offers a deep crop of setup men from which to draw. Darren O’Day stands out as the top arm on the market, and the Tigers will no doubt be linked to him in the weeks and months to come. Right-hander Shawn Kelley quietly had a dominant season in San Diego, as his ERA finally lined up with his excellent peripherals. Ryan Madson had a brilliant comeback campaign, and Soria will, of course, be a free agent this winter. The Tigers need lefty help as well, making both Antonio Bastardo and Tony Sipp (each of whom handles both lefties and righties well) attractive targets on two-year deals.
On the trade front, Avila could line up with frequent Tigers trading partner Mike Rizzo of the Nationals. It’s been widely speculated that Drew Storen, who did not take kindly to the team’s acquisition of Jonathan Papelbon, could be dealt this winter. He’d be a one-year rental, as he’ll hit the open market after earning a projected $8.8MM next year. But, Storen has a track record of quality performance, even if many remember him for a pair of disappointing postseason appearances.
A second option with the Nationals could be to take on Papelbon himself. While that could undoubtedly present problems within the clubhouse, Papelbon has a solid season split between the Phillies and Nationals, and Washington would most likely be willing to eat part of his $11MM salary to facilitate a trade in the aftermath of his confrontation with Bryce Harper.
One more expensive bullpen trade candidate could be Mark Melancon, who has enjoyed a dominant run with the Pirates. That success, though, has Melancon’s projected arbitration salary at $10MM, which may be too steep for the cost-conscious Pirates. A trade with Pittsburgh would need to bring more than the salary dump type of deal that sent fellow $10MM closer Jim Johnson from Baltimore to Oakland in the 2013-14 offseason, but Melancon’s value will fall in somewhere south of fellow NL Central stopper Aroldis Chapman. The Reds and Padres could represent theoretical trade partners, but the value of Chapman and Craig Kimbrel is exceptionally high, and the Tigers may not want to part with the necessary prospects to land either elite closer.
With the infield mostly set, a young catcher with starting upside in the form of James McCann (Alex Avila is expected to land elsewhere as a free agent), Victor Martinez penciled in at DH and right field locked down with J.D. Martinez, the team’s biggest need on the position player side is an outfielder. Anthony Gose can handle a good chunk of the center field duties, though he’d require a platoon partner. That could mean a reunion with Rajai Davis — perhaps on a two-year deal similar to the previous one he signed in Detroit — or a lower-key acquisition such as Drew Stubbs. One can also envision a return for Austin Jackson, whose best seasons came in Detroit, though he’d require a larger commitment and may push Gose over to left field.
While the Tigers have Steven Moya and Tyler Collins as in-house options in left, Collins looked like a platoon option at best, while Moya struggled in the Majors and at the Triple-A level. For a team with significant payroll capacity and high 2016 expectations, the best course of action would seem to be giving Moya additional time at the Triple-A level and utilizing Collins as a bench piece. Top-tier names like Yoenis Cespedes, Justin Upton, Alex Gordon and Jason Heyward (who would force Martinez to left field) are plausible, though with pitching being a greater priority, they may be deemed too expensive. If that’s the case, second-tier outfield options like Dexter Fowler and Colby Rasmus make some sense. That’s not to say either will be cheap relative to the rest of the market, just more affordable than the top echelon of free-agent outfielders.
The other big issue for the Tigers this winter will be whether or not they’re able to agree to a long-term deal with J.D. Martinez. The two sides are said to have mutual interest in an extension, but Martinez only has two years of club control left, and thus, isn’t too far removed from free agency. With a projected arbitration salary of $7.8MM and a $3MM salary from 2015 already under his belt, Martinez has already obtained some financial security, so there’s reason for him to simply elect to play out his final two years and hit the open market heading into what would be his age-30 season. If he can maintain anything close to his 2014-15 form, he’d be one of the hottest free agents on the market in two winters — perhaps on the receiving end of a $150MM+ guarantee. Knowing that, Detroit isn’t likely to be able to land him at a hugely discounted rate.
There aren’t many comparables when looking for hitters that signed extensions with between four and five years of service under their belts. Adam Jones is one such case, though his six-year, $85.5MM extension with Baltimore is now three years old, and it was a midseason extension that bought out one arb year and five free-agent seasons. Martinez’s projected second-year arb price of $7.8MM handily tops Jones’ $6.15MM mark, and the market, of course, has taken a huge step forward since May 2012. (Jones’ deal, at the time, was the second-largest contract for a center fielder, clearly illustrating how things have changed.) I’d wager that Martinez’s remaining arb years could be valued at around $21MM, so perhaps a six-year deal that pays him $20-22MM per free-agent year would get talks going. That would put the rough guess for an extension at $100-110MM over six years — an unfathomable sum for Martinez just 18 months ago but one that would be worthwhile if he’s able to maintain his current level of production.
In each of the past two offseasons, the Tigers sought to get their hands on a young, controllable rotation piece that could be slotted into the starting five for the foreseeable future without further bogging down the crowded future payroll. That resulted in disappointing returns from both Robbie Ray and Shane Greene, and it subsequently contributed to the team’s disappointing 2015 campaign. Somewhat ironically, Dombrowski may have finally gotten his man in the form of Norris, but the decision to rebuild may ultimately have cost him his job.
Because of that, it seems likely that Avila will take a more aggressive approach to spending on the pitching staff in his first offseason as GM. While I find a pursuit of Price, Zack Greinke or Johnny Cueto too drastic a measure, I’d imagine we’ll see the Tigers mentioned in connection with those names before ultimately landing a pair of mid-rotation arms and multiple relievers. And, given the productive names that proliferate the club’s depth chart on the position-player side of the equation, the Tigers’ return to contention in the AL Central might not take more than a single offseason.
Latest On Phillies’ GM Search
The Phillies announced before the season that they were officially looking to rebuild, and the organization is currently hanging on to pole position in next year’s draft. With Andy MacPhail taking over as club president and Ruben Amaro Jr. being relieved of his duties as general manager, the organization is expected to find a numbers-savvy GM to guide the its development.
The latest on their search:
- Ken Rosenthal of FOX Sports reports that Athletics AGM Dan Kantrovitz is receiving a second interview from the Phillies (Twitter link). There are others in the wave of second-round interviews as well. Kantrovitz interviewed for the Brewers’ GM slot before Milwaukee hired David Stearns. Kantrovitz has had two stints with the A’s and two with the Cards, serving in various capacities, including assistant GM, director of scouting and director of international scouting.
- MacPhail told Zolecki that while it’d be ambitious to expect a hire before the Phillies’ organizational meetings begin next Monday, we shouldn’t dismiss the possibility that a hire could be announced later next week. Zolecki notes that Angels AGM Matt Klentak, who Zolecki previously reported to be a favorite, has had his first interview. MacPhail hired Klentak as the Orioles’ director of baseball operations back in 2008, making Klentak one of the game’s youngest execs. Zolecki also notes that Ng is not among MacPhail’s top candidates.
Earlier Updates
- ESPN’s Jerry Crasnick spoke to someone familiar with the Phillies’ GM search that disputed the notion that Picollo has become the front-runner in the search (links to Twitter). Rather, he hears that owner John Middleton’s top preference is former Red Sox GM Ben Cherington. However, Crasnick reminds that Cherington has previously indicated that he does not want to dive right back into another GM opportunity. Crasnick also reported over the weekend (Twitter link) that Beinfest has been informed that he is no longer in the running for the position.
- While the Phillies still have plans to interview about six more candidates, Royals assistant GM J.J. Picollo has emerged as a “heavy favorite” to become the next Philadelphia general manager, reports Bob Nightengale of USA Today (Twitter link). The New Jersey native has been connected to the Phillies’ opening previously, though it’s not exactly clear when he initially interviewed for the position. Picollo has held his current post with the Royals since 2008 and been in the organization since 2006. Prior to his time with the Royals, he spent seven years working for the Braves.
- The Phillies have interviewed Cardinals director of player personnel Matt Slater for the position, reports MLB.com’s Anthony Castrovince. Slater has been working in front offices for 20 years, beginning as the Orioles’ administrator of scouting from 1995-98, per his bio on the Cardinals’ web site. He also has served in various capacities with the Brewers, Angels and Dodgers in addition to consulting work with Nippon Professional Baseball’s Orix Buffaloes.
AL East Notes: Chen, Britton, Murphy, Blue Jays
While many are anticipating that the Orioles will have difficulty in retaining their free agents, Roch Kubatko of MASNsports.com cautions against simply dismissing the possibility that Baltimore can find a way to retain some combination of Wei-Yin Chen, Chris Davis, Matt Wieters and Darren O’Day. Of the four, Kubatko considers Chen the least likely to return, but he notes that the O’s had an organizational meeting last Friday which included managing partner Peter Angelos. One source later termed the meeting “productive” when speaking to Kubatko. The MASN scribe also hears from a source that Angelos wants to not only re-sign Chen but also is showing a willingness to add a free agent starter beyond the longtime Baltimore lefty. Of course, Kubatko also points out the possibility that Chen’s demotion to Class-A ball this season — a more or less procedural move that bought the Orioles some time to sort out a roster crunch — strained the relationship between player and team.
From my own vantage point, history hasn’t shown that the Orioles would be willing to spend at the necessary levels to sign Chen. A four-year deal is almost certainly there for him this winter, and he has a case for a fifth season at an annual rate in excess of the $12.5MM on Ubaldo Jimenez‘s four-year deal with Baltimore. As Kubtako notes, Baltimore “shocked” many in the industry with that Jimenez contract; either a five-year deal or a significantly larger four-year pact for Chen strikes me as unlikely.
A few more items pertaining to the AL East…
- Kubatko’s colleague, Steve Melewski, writes that fans who feel the Orioles should try Zach Britton back in the rotation are misguided. Britton would be unable to jump from about 70 innings per season to the 175 to 200 necessary out of the rotation, and more importantly, he’d almost certainly be less effective in the rotation. Moving to a starting role would make it more difficult for Britton to hold his velocity, and hitters would benefit from second and third looks at his incredible sinker. He’d also need to throw more secondary pitches than he presently does, and the move would further weaken a bullpen that will already be an area of need for Baltimore this winter.
- Daniel Murphy signing with the Yankees is an unlikely scenario but can’t be completely ruled out, writes Mark Feinsand of the New York Daily News. Second base is the Yankees’ most uncertain position on the diamond at present, and while many believe Rob Refsnyder will get a long look next year, Murphy’s swing fits Yankee Stadium well. The Yankees are in the midst of their pro scouting meetings and beginning to plot a course for the offseason, so Murphy’s name figures to at least be mentioned. Feinsand spoke to a pair of sources that estimated Murphy can land a deal similar to Chase Headley‘s four-year, $52MM contract on the heels of a big postseason performance.
- Joel Sherman of the New York Post looks back on the trade that sent R.A. Dickey, Josh Thole and Mike Nickeas to the Blue Jays in exchange for Travis d’Arnaud, Noah Syndergaard, John Buck and Wuilmer Becerra. While there were other pieces in the trade, the core of the trade — Dickey for Syndergaard/d’Arnaud — looks excellent for the Mets, in hindsight. Sherman spoke with Jays GM Alex Anthopoulos, who explained the the team had a win-now approach back in that 2012 offseason, with the goal of maximizing the prime years of Jose Bautista and Edwin Encarnacion. Both d’Arnaud and Syndergaard were years from contributing, and Toronto felt it could get four years of control of a win-now pitcher to help its near-term playoff hopes. The Jays also talked to the Rays about James Shields and had interest in free agent Anibal Sanchez at the time, but Tampa Bay didn’t want to move Shields within the division and Sanchez preferred Detroit to Toronto, Sherman adds.
Jae-Gyun Hwang, Ah-Seop Son Ask To Be Posted By KBO Team
OCT. 20: KBO has determined that Lotte will not be permitted to post both Hwang and Son simultaneously, per a new report from Yonhap. However, if the first player posted by the Giants fails to reach a deal with a Major League club, the Giants could then post the other player.
KBO players are eligible to be posted beginning on Nov. 1 and at any point until March 1, though it’d obviously behoove Lotte (or any other club) to post its players earlier in the offseason, when MLB teams have more money to spend. Per the Yonhap report, the Giants plan to try to convince both players to stay in KBO for another season.
OCT. 16: Korean third baseman Jae-gyun Hwang and outfielder Ah-seop Son have both asked their team, the Lotte Giants, to be posted for Major League teams to bid on this offseason, according to a report from Korean media outlet Yonhap News (link is in English).
However, we’re not likely to see both players make the jump to Major League Baseball in 2016, as the Korea Baseball Organization’s rules stipulate that a team can only accept a posting bid on one player per offseason. That, however, does not technically mean that both cannot be posted. A person familiar with the league tells MLBTR that there’s an internal debate among KBO officials as to whether or not the Giants could still post both players. In that instance, the team would be limited to accepting a bid on one or the other. To this point, given the limited number of players to jump from KBO to MLB, there’s been no precedent for a team desiring to post multiple players in the same offseason.
At this juncture, the Giants haven’t given an indication as to whether or not they’ll post either player, per the Yonhap report. From a pure business standpoint, though, it would make the most sense to post Hwang. The 28-year-old third baseman has eight years of service time in KBO, and players become eligible for international free agency after nine seasons, meaning Hwang could leave without the restriction of the posting process next offseason. Son, on the other hand, has seven years of service time and could be posted again next winter.
Hwang enjoyed a breakout season in 2015, shattering his previous career-high in home runs. The right-handed hitter batted .290/.350/.521 with 26 homers on the season after never having totaled more than 18 in a season. It’s worth noting that KBO did up its number of regular-season contests from 128 to 144 this season, but even on a per-plate-appearance basis, his homer output markedly increased, and he won the KBO’s annual home run derby this season as well. Hwang is said to be a good defensive third baseman, and he’s played in every KBO game dating back to 2011, so he has durability on his side also.
Son is a few months younger and will play all of the 2016 season at age 28 (Hwang will turn 29 next July). The left-handed hitter doesn’t have Hwang’s power upside but is a better contact hitter and has posted consistently superior on-base percentages. Son batted .317/.406/.472 with 13 homers and 11 steals (17 attempts) in 116 games this year and has hit .306 or better with at least a .370 OBP each year dating back to 2010. He’s previously swiped as many as 36 bases in a season. Yahoo’s Jeff Passan reported recently that Son hoped to be posted and was being represented by the Beverly Hills Sports Council.
It’s not known what type of posting fee either player would command, but as a reminder, KBO still uses the old, “blind” posting method from which Japan’s Nippon Professional Baseball has moved away. Under the KBO posting system, all 30 teams would be able to submit a blind bid of any amount, with the Giants then accepting the highest bid. From that point, the team that won the bidding would have a month to negotiate a contract with the player and his representatives. If an agreement isn’t reached, the player would return to the Giants, and the posting fee would be returned to the team that had won the bidding.
Jung Ho Kang, a close friend of Hwang, cost the Pirates a $5MM posting fee plus a guaranteed four-year, $11MM contract. That deal, of course, looks to be an incredible bargain for GM Neal Huntington in hindsight. It will be interesting to see if the success of Kang makes teams more willing to wager larger posting fees on future Korean players even though neither Hwang nor Son possesses the same level of power.
MLBTR Mailbag: Cardinals, Benoit, Pompey, ChiSox, Ethier, Brewers
It’s time for another round of the MLBTR Mailbag. Thanks to everyone who wrote in with questions, and apologies to those we couldn’t respond to.
With an early post season exit and the Cardinals offense on the decline for the last 2 years, do you see John Mabry being on the hot seat and having someone else take over as hitting coach? Also what are the chances of the Cardinals signing Yoenis Cespedes if Jason Heyward is too expensive? — Tim S.
Mabry’s already been invited back to coach in 2016, so the team clearly doesn’t feel an immediate need to make a change. Cespedes won’t be markedly cheaper than Heyward — I have him somewhere in the $150MM range — so if they’re going to spend at that level, it’d probably be for the younger guy with whom they’re already familiar.
Will the Padres pick up Joaquin Benoit’s option? He has been good the last couple of years but should the Padres pay 8 million for a 38 year old reliever? — Abraham S.
It’s not really an $8MM decision on Benoit, since he’s guaranteed at least a $1.5MM buyout on that salary. They’re basically deciding if he’s worth $6.5MM on a one-year deal, and his performance has been worth that. He’s probably not going to keep his BABIP as low as this year’s .182, and you can question whether or not he can post a fifth straight strand rate north of 80 percent. But, even with some regression to his career marks, Benoit will probably still be an above-average reliever. He drew interest at the trade deadline, and I can imagine that he’d generate interest as a trade candidate this winter even if their preferred route is to exercise the option and trade him.
We all know that Kevin Pillar exceeded expectation this season. There is no question that he and Revere will patrol the outfield next year. With Pillar and Revere being relatively young and under team control for the next few seasons, do you think that Dalton Pompey is still the Blue Jays center fielder of the future? If not, do you see him as a trade bait for the Jays this offseason? — Christophe L.
I do think you’ll see Pompey’s name mentioned in trade rumors this winter. Toronto has alternative options, as you note, and they also have significant needs on the pitching staff. The Blue Jays stand to lose David Price, Marco Estrada and Mark Buehrle this offseason and could lose Drew Hutchison. On top of that, they traded MLB-ready arms in Daniel Norris and Matt Boyd to acquire Price and can’t necessarily pencil Drew Hutchison in for 180+ innings next season after his down year. Even if Aaron Sanchez is put back in the rotation, they’ll still have two, if not three rotation spots to fill. They can’t — or at least shouldn’t — expect to fill in the entire rotation via free agency, so if Pompey can help fetch a pitcher that will step into the rotation, he strikes me as a very logical trade candidate.
With the White Sox making it sound as if third base is a priority, who are some of the realistic trade options they could look to, seeing as the FA market seems thin? — Anthony P.
Beyond free-agent options, which consist primarily of David Freese and Daniel Murphy, I can envision Trevor Plouffe, Luis Valbuena, Yunel Escobar, Martin Prado and Cody Asche all being available in trade. The Reds could end up listening on Todd Frazier, also, but the asking price on him would figure to be through the roof. Another option for Chicago will be Korean slugger Jae-gyun Hwang, if he is posted by his team — KBO’s Lotte Giants. Hwang hit .290/.350/.521 with 26 homers in 2015 and is said to be a solid defender at the hot corner. He’s an under-the-radar option for anyone needing third base help, but it’s not certain yet whether or not he’ll be posted. (More on that situation here.)
Assuming that Crawford’s contract will be almost impossible to unload this winter, what is the likelihood that Ethier could be moved? — Jeff D.
Crawford’s contract isn’t immovable, the Dodgers will just need to eat half or more of the remaining two years and ~$43MM on the deal. Matt Kemp’s contract was far more sizable, and we saw the Braves unload Melvin Upton last offseason as well. Eating half the salary would bring the commitment to about $21.5MM over two years, and while that’s too much, it’s a pretty manageable sum for a lot of teams.
That said, the Dodgers will probably listen to offers on Ethier as well, but at $38MM over the next two seasons and coming off a strong performance, his contract doesn’t look as unappealing as it did last winter. A platoon of Ethier and Enrique Hernandez or Ethier and Scott Van Slyke should be more than productive enough to get through a season.
Who could David Stearns use to fill the hole at third base long term for the Brewers? Is there any chance they could get Freese? — Chris W.
It doesn’t make much sense for the Brewers to sign Freese to a two- or three-year free agent deal when they’re not going to contend in 2016-17 anyhow. A longer-term deal for Hwang, mentioned above, would make some sense because he could be around by the time Milwaukee is contending once again, and there’s opportunity for a sizable amount of surplus value. If Milwaukee feels it can turn Asche around and get passable defense out of him at third base, he’s a reasonable long-term option as well. Asche brings the bonus of being a left-handed bat; much of Milwaukee’s long-term pieces are right-handed batters.
Minor MLB Transactions: 10/19/15
Here are the latest minor moves from around the game:
- Outfielder Jason Pridie has been given his release by the Athletics in order to pursue an opportunity playing in Japan, Oakland announced. The 32-year-old has seen action in seven big league seasons, but has exceeded ten plate appearances in only one of those — 2011, when he slashed .231/.309/.370 in 236 turns at bat for the Mets. But Pridie had a big year at Triple-A in 2015, putting up a .310/.380/.515 line with 20 home runs and 20 steals over 540 plate appearances.
- The Athletics also announced that 28-year-old catcher Bryan Anderson has been outrighted to Triple-A. Not unlike Pridie, Anderson has seen action in five MLB seasons but accumulated just 77 total plate appearances in that span. He struggled badly offensively at the Triple-A level this year, slashing a meager .202/.273/.288 in 322 trips to the plate.
- The Giants have outrighted catcher Jackson Williams, infielder Nick Noonan and righty Brett Bochy, according to the MLB.com transactions page (and as MLBTR has confirmed). The 29-year-old Williams collected 14 plate appearances after being promoted in early September. He spent most of the year at Double-A Richmond, where he hit .228/.312/.279. Noonan, too, was a September call-up. He spent the first several months of the season with the Yankees’ Triple-A affiliate before the Giants signed him in August and sent him to Triple-A Sacramento. For the season, the 26-year-old hit .263/.310/.338 in 339 plate appearances in the minors, mostly playing shortstop. He’s already cleared waivers and elected free agency. Bochy, the son of Giants manager Bruce, got a cup of coffee in the big leagues for the second consecutive year in 2015. The 28-year-old spent most of the season in Sacramento, posting a 4.19 ERA, 6.7 K/9 and 2.3 BB/9 in 58 innings of relief.
Offseason Outlook: New York Yankees
The Yankees could have a bit of room to add another big contract this winter, though a greater need may be finding young depth to bolster its veteran core.
Guaranteed Contracts
- Masahiro Tanaka, SP: $111MM through 2020 (Tanaka can opt out after 2017)
- Jacoby Ellsbury, OF: $105.714MM through 2020 ($21MM club option for 2021 with $5MM buyout)
- Brian McCann, C: $51MM through 2018 ($15MM club option for 2019, can vest to become player option)
- Alex Rodriguez, DH: $40MM through 2017
- Chase Headley, 3B: $39MM through 2018
- Brett Gardner, OF: $36MM through 2018 ($12.5MM club option for 2019, $2MM buyout)
- Andrew Miller, RP: $27MM through 2018
- C.C. Sabathia, SP: $25MM through 2016 ($25MM vesting option for 2017, $5MM buyout otherwise)
- Mark Teixeira, 1B: $22.5MM through 2016
- Carlos Beltran, OF: $15MM through 2016
Arbitration Eligible Players (service time in parentheses; projections by MLB Trade Rumors)
- Sergio Santos (5.110) – $900K projected salary
- Andrew Bailey (5.034) – $900K arbitration projection (has $2MM club option).
- Ivan Nova (5.024) – $4.4MM
- Michael Pineda (4.099) – $4.6MM
- Dustin Ackley (4.087) – $3.1MM
- Nathan Eovaldi (4.013) – $5.7MM
- Adam Warren (3.036) – $1.5MM
- Justin Wilson (3.035) – $1.3MM
- Didi Gregorius (2.159) – $2.1MM
- Non-tender candidates: Santos
Contract Options
- Brendan Ryan, IF: $2MM club option/$1MM player option for 2016
- Andrew Bailey, RP: $2MM club option
Free Agents
In many ways, 2015 was a successful year for the Yankees. They returned to the postseason (albeit for just one game, losing to the Astros in a wild card matchup), got some solid contributions from building-block younger players and received several bounce-back seasons from their expensive veterans. While anything short of a World Series championship is generally considered a disappointment in New York, the Yankees at least made some positive strides.
The trick for GM Brian Cashman, however, is figuring out how exactly to add major upgrades to a roster that has over $180MM committed to just 10 players. There’s a light at the end of the guaranteed-salary since at least $37.5MM (Mark Teixeira and Carlos Beltran) will be freed up after 2016, plus Alex Rodriguez and C.C. Sabathia (a combined $45MM) will be off the books after 2017. The Yankees don’t seem likely to go on another free agent spending spree, but with some financial relief in sight, it doesn’t seem out of the question for them to make one or two major free agent signings on backloaded contracts. It may make more sense for New York to strike in free agency now rather than next winter, when the projected open market doesn’t look nearly as deep in talent, particularly in frontline pitching.
Starting pitching indeed stands out as an area of focus, and free agent righty Jeff Samardzija has already been cited as a Yankee target this offseason. Samardzija would cost less than pursuing one of the top-tier arms in this winter’s free agent pitching market, though the lower price tag is due to Samardzija’s lackluster 2015 season. He posted a 4.96 ERA over 214 innings with the White Sox, and while ERA predictors were a bit more kind to his performance (Chicago’s bad defense certainly played a role), Samardzija also suffered drops in his strikeout and grounder rates. It should be noted, though, that the Yankees weren’t interested in signing free agents that required draft pick forfeiture, and Samardzija reportedly will receive and reject a $15.8MM qualifying offer from the White Sox.
Acquiring a new starter would require the Yankees to bump a current rotation member. The 2016 rotation projects as Masahiro Tanaka, Luis Severino, Nathan Eovaldi, Michael Pineda and Sabathia, with Ivan Nova and Adam Warren on hand as depth. Sabathia recently entered an alcohol rehabilitation program, adding a far more pressing personal concern to his 2016 status beyond just his knee injuries and declining performance. Sabathia has only made one relief appearance in his 15-year career (during the 2011 playoffs) and he still ate 167 1/3 innings last season, yet as strange as it would be to see him coming out of the bullpen, he’s the most logical candidate to leave the rotation. Tanaka and Severino obviously aren’t going anywhere, and trading promising young starters like Eovaldi and Pineda (whose ERA indicators show he drastically outperformed his 4.37 ERA) would be an odd move for a club that claims to want to get younger.
It’s hard to see where a major new salary could be fit around the diamond since that’s where most of the Yankees’ payroll commitments can be found. Aside from shortstop Didi Gregorius and the unsettled second base situation, every other position is filled by a veteran with an eight-figure salary, the youngest of whom (Chase Headley) is entering his age-32 season. The Yankees enjoyed several bounce-back seasons from many of these older stars in 2015 but even those came with some caveats; Teixeira missed the last six weeks with a shin fracture and Rodriguez hit only .191/.300/.377 in 213 PA after Aug. 1.
Combine those with down years from Headley, Jacoby Ellsbury and Brett Gardner, and a team-wide lackluster defense (24th in team UZR/150, 27th in team Defensive Runs Saved), and you have to question if the Yankees can realistically expect to catch lightning in a bottle again and contend with this aging lineup. Manager Joe Girardi was already pretty liberal with off-days for many of his veterans last year, and the same can probably be expected in 2016 now that the manager has a few more young reinforcements to be called upon.
Greg Bird and John Ryan Murphy lead the way in this regard, as the rookie first baseman and third-year backup catcher both had strong seasons, particularly Bird stepping in to deliver big numbers after Teixeira was lost to the DL. There has been some speculation that Bird could be tried out at third base or right field so he could get regular time spelling Teixeira, Headley and Beltran, though it remains to be see how Bird could adjust to playing two new positions for the first time in his pro career. Murphy could also see some time at first base, though it’s probably more likely that he could get more time behind the plate spelling Brian McCann (who would either rest on those days or play first himself). More at-bats for Murphy would also get a right-handed bat into the lineup on a more regular basis, which would help a Yankees offense that struggled badly against southpaws.
Chris Young was a valuable weapon against left-handed pitching last season, posting a .972 OPS in 175 PA against southpaws en route to an overall very solid .252/.320/.453 slash line and 14 homers in 356 PA. Young and his new representation will be looking for a multi-year contract and a job that offers more regular playing time, though I’d expect the Yankees will explore keeping a lefty-masher who can play both corner outfield spots and handle the occasional fill-in game or two in center. If Young signs elsewhere, the Bombers will be in the market for another versatile backup outfielder.
Rob Refsnyder and Jose Pirela were the two young second base candidates rumored to be in for long looks in 2015, though Stephen Drew ended up seeing most of the at-bats at the keystone. It’s unlikely that Drew returns in the wake of his rough season, so the Yankees could go with a platoon of left-handed hitting Dustin Ackley and either Refsnyder or Pirela (both righty batters) at second next season. Ideally, the Yankees would probably prefer to have Refsnyder or Pirela win the job outright in Spring Training as Ackley has only played in 10 games at second over the last two years.
Could New York look for a more permanent answer at second base? Names like Howie Kendrick, Daniel Murphy and Ben Zobrist stand out as the most promising options on the free agent market. Murphy and Zobrist, in particular, could fill depth needs as Murphy can also play third and Zobrist can play short and left. Neither are defensive standouts, though, as Zobrist’s usually-solid defensive metrics took a plunge in 2015; signing Zobrist in particular would mean the Yankees would commit another big contract to another mid-30’s player.
Signing an everyday second baseman would allow the Yankees to package Refsnyder as part of a trade, as he could be a young talent the club would be willing to part with if rumors of attitude issues are true (Cashman has denied these rumors, for the record). The Yankees have become much more wary about trading top prospects for established stars over the last few years, so you’re more apt to see the likes of Aaron Judge, Eric Jagielo or Jacob Lindgren in the pinstripes next season than another Major League uniform.
The bullpen was rebuilt last winter with good results, as Yankees relievers led the league in K/9 (10.11) and ranked third in fWAR (5.2). Andrew Miller, Dellin Betances and Justin Wilson should again be a very tough late-game trio for opponents to overcome, and if another starter is acquired, adding Warren or Nova as a full-time reliever would further strengthen the pen. Warren and Nova could also be trade chips; Nova’s stock isn’t high after a tough 2015 campaign, but it was his first year back from Tommy John surgery.
While the relief corps was already a strength, the Yankees also explored adding elite bullpen arms like Craig Kimbrel or Aroldis Chapman at the trade deadline. If the Yankees make another attempt at creating a super-bullpen, perhaps they could offer Major League pieces rather than prospects. This is entirely speculation on my part, but maybe the Padres be interested in adding a needed left-handed bat and outfield defense in the form of Gardner (plus a prospect or two) for Kimbrel.
Since Ellsbury may be untradeable at this point due to his big contract and disappointing season, moving Gardner or Beltran would open up a corner outfield spot. This could open the door for a big signing, and Mike Axisa of the River Ave. Blues blog recently opined that Jason Heyward would be an ideal fit, even without the Yankees making room by trading someone else. Heyward would play every day and then Ellsbury, Gardner and Beltran would be rotated (or, Beltran would DH on days that A-Rod sits), which would be a uniquely big-market way of solving a fourth outfielder problem if Young doesn’t re-sign. The juggling of playing time would only be an issue for 2016 since Beltran’s contract is up next winter, or it might not end up being an issue at all if someone gets injured, as Axisa notes.
Heyward is only 26, is one of the game’s elite defensive outfielders, and he’ll command the kind of massive long-term contract that only the Yankees and a handful of other big-market teams can afford. He’s also a player that New York targeted last offseason in trade talks when Heyward was still with the Braves, so the interest is there. The Yankees, as usual, will be linked in rumors to just about every notable free agent name, though in Heyward’s case, there could be some legitimate substance to the whispers. Adding Heyward would bring both youth and elite talent to the Bombers in one fell swoop.
On the surface, Cashman doesn’t appear to have a ton of maneuverability given that his club is still a year away from finally starting to shed some of its major salary commitments. Last winter, however, Cashman was very active on the trade market and came away with such important pieces as Gregorius, Eovaldi and Wilson. If he can expand on that creativity and manage to unload one of his big contracts, it could unlock several new offseason possibilities.
Heyman’s Latest: Harvey, Murphy, Kennedy, Wieters, Phillies
Mets righty Matt Harvey and agent Scott Boras took out an insurance policy on the right-hander’s arm, writes Jon Heyman of CBS Sports in his latest Inside Baseball column. The policy covers a mere fraction of Harvey’s overall earning potential, says Heyman, but it does give him a bit of a safety net in the event that his workload following Tommy John surgery leads to future arm complications. Heyman notes that Harvey’s dominant outing in Game 1 of the NLCS “all but obliterated” other teams’ chances of trading for the right-hander, who was lauded by the Citi Field faithful. Never one to pass up the chance for a memorable quote, Boras said of Harvey’s performance on a cold New York evening: “Forget Batman. He’s Mr. Freeze.”
A few more highlights from the column…
- While multiple reports have indicated that the Mets aren’t planning on giving Daniel Murphy a qualifying offer, one rival GM tells Heyman that they “absolutely have to” extend the QO on the heels of Murphy’s huge postseason. The GM added that Murphy should reject the offer and look to capitalize on the five homers he’s launched since the NLDS got underway.
- The Padres appear to have interest in a reunion with starter Ian Kennedy, per the report. It’s likely, of course, that there will be competition. As Heyman notes, the 30-year-old righty has sustained the gains in velocity and strikeout rate that he showed last year — in fact, his 9.3 K/9 is second only to David Price among free agents — and has been a reliable source of innings for the last six years.
- Catcher Matt Wieters will draw some open-market interest from the Rangers, but only if he avoids a qualifying offer. Texas would not have interest in giving up its first-round pick to ink Wieters, says Heyman.
- The Phillies haven’t yet called Jim Hendry about their open GM seat. He teamed with new Philadelphia president Andy MacPhail with the Cubs. But Heyman writes that the Phils appear to be angling toward younger candidates. Though we haven’t heard much lately on the status of Kim Ng, one source says that she remains in the mix.
Blue Jays Claim Pat Venditte, Designate Darwin Barney
The Blue Jays announced today that they’ve claimed switch-pitcher Pat Venditte off waivers from the Athletics. To clear a spot on the 40-man roster, Darwin Barney has been designated for assignment. Venditte isn’t eligible to pitch in the postseason with Toronto.
As an ambidextrous pitcher, the 30-year-old Venditte grabbed quite a few headlines in Oakland when he made his big league debut earlier this season. Venditte logged 28 2/3 innings with the A’s in the Majors, totaling a 4.40 ERA with 7.2 K/9, 3.8 BB/9 and a 32.9 percent ground-ball rate. Venditte was hit hard by right-handed hitters — particularly in the few instances where he had to face them as a left-handed pitcher. However, he excelled in lefty-lefty matchups, limiting opponents to a .116/.188/.256 batting line in such situations.
Formerly a 20th-round pick by the Yankees in 2008, Venditte also grinded his way through eight minor league seasons before emerging at the Major League level in Oakland this year. His minor league track record is exceptional, as he’s worked to a 2.39 ERA, averaging 10.0 K/9 against 2.5 BB/9 along the way. Venditte doesn’t throw particularly hard, averaging just 84.6 mph and sitting in the mid-80s from each side. However, that hasn’t limited his effectiveness in the minors, and the Blue Jays will hope that he can be a contributor for him in future seasons. If nothing else, he’s a nice depth piece for a team that is currently slated to lose LaTroy Hawkins and Mark Lowe to free agency.
The 29-year-old Barney, a fixture in the Cubs’ infield from 2010-14, came to the Blue Jays by way of trade from the Dodgers in September. Toronto had a need at second base with Devon Travis again sidelined by injuries, and Barney was picked up to fill that role despite the fact that being acquired after Sept. 1 made him ineligible for the postseason. Barney spent most of the season in Triple-A with the Dodgers, where he batted .277/.325/.354. While those numbers don’t exactly leap off the page, Barney’s calling card has long been his defense at second base, where he won a Gold Glove in 2012. He also has experience at shortstop and third base.
Mariners Claim Cody Martin From A’s, Release Logan Kensing
The Mariners announced today that they’ve claimed right-hander Cody Martin off waivers from the A’s (Twitter link). To make room on the roster, right-hander Logan Kensing has been released.
The 26-year-old Martin began the year with the Braves and posted a 5.40 ERA in 21 1/3 innings there before being traded to Oakland in exchange for an international bonus slot in early July. Martin was hit hard in green and gold, though, yielding 14 runs across nine innings in four appearances (two starts). He does have a much better Triple-A track record, where he’s worked to a 4.02 ERA overall in parts of three seasons. Martin had a 2.88 ERA with the Braves’ Triple-A affiliate before struggling upon a move to the Pacific Coast League. He makes for a Major League ready depth piece for a Mariners team that could lose Hisashi Iwakuma to free agency and has seen both James Paxton and Taijuan Walker struggle with injuries.
The veteran Kensing, 33, has seen just 16 Major League innings since 2009 — 15 1/3 of which came with the Mariners this season. He allowed a 5.87 ERA in his return to the Majors. Kensing was up and down with the Marlins from 2004-09 posting a similar 5.81 ERA in 161 innings.