Giants To Re-Sign Juan Gutierrez
The Giants have re-signed right-handed reliever Juan Gutierrez to a minor league deal, Baseball America’s Matt Eddy recently reported. Gutierrez was designated by San Francisco back in November, in advance of the non-tender deadline.
The 31-year-old tossed 63 2/3 frames of 3.96 ERA ball last year for the eventual World Champions, with 6.2 K/9 against 2.3 BB/9. Though he has mostly performed at roughly replacement level for his career, Gutierrez has suffered from his share of bad luck: all major ERA estimators value his work at a significantly better rate than his lifetime ERA. And his career 3.79 SIERA suggests that he can be a serviceable piece from the bullpen.
Hiroki Kuroda Signs With Hiroshima Carp
Veteran righty Hiroki Kuroda is returning to the place where he made his name: the Hiroshima Toyo Carp of Japan’s Nippon Professional Baseball league.
Soon to turn 40 years of age, Kuroda remains every bit as sturdy and effective as ever. Since coming to the big leagues from NPB back in 2008 — his age-33 season — Kuroda has never ended a season with an ERA over 3.76. In seven MLB campaigns, he owns a 3.45 ERA with 6.7 K/9 and 2.0 BB/9.
Of course, Kuroda had entire separate career in Japan before he came stateside. He broke in at age 22 and threw 11 seasons, all with Hiroshima. His numbers there looked quite similar to his big league marks: 3.69 ERA with 6.7 K/9 against 2.4 BB/9.
Kuroda will no doubt take a significant pay cut to return to the Carp, but he has the luxury to choose his destination at this point in his career. He ultimately earned a total of $88.3MM over his time in the big leagues, mostly through short-term deals as he continually chose to keep his options open rather than committing to a lengthy pact.
Though Kuroda was of course free to sign with any team, it had long been thought that he would be choosing between the Yankees, NPB, and retirement. In that respect, today’s move resonates most in New York, as the Yanks are left with a rotation full of durability questions.
For the rest of the starting pitching market, the news should have relatively little effect. Most of the quality mid-level starters have already found new homes, and Kuroda likely had a narrow range of suitors.
Jim Allen of Kyodo News tweeted that the Carp had announced the signing; Japanese media outlets Nippon and Chugoku Shimbun first reported that Kuroda was set to return to NPB.
Minor Moves: Mitch Lively, Rick VandenHurk
Here are Friday’s minor moves from around baseball…
- The Nationals have inked righty Mitch Lively to a minor league deal with a spring training invite, the club announced on Twitter. Washington also made several other previously-reported signings official. Lively, 29, had pitched exclusively in relief as a professional before converting to the rotation in 2013. He joined the Nationals in the middle of last year after opting out of his deal with the Giants.
- Former Marlins right-hander Rick VandenHurk has signed with the Fukuoka SoftBank Hawks of Japan’s Nippon Professional Baseball, the team announced (Japanese link). Though VandenHurk’s big league career never took off, the Dutch hurler has a solid Triple-A track record and even more impressive numbers from a recent stint in the hitter-friendly Korea Baseball Organization. The 29-year-old VandenHurk has pitched to a 3.55 ERA with 9.6 K/9 and 2.8 BB/9 in 296 1/3 innings with KBO’s Samsung Lions over the past two seasons. He led the KBO with a 3.18 ERA in 2014, averaging 10.6 strikeouts per nine innings.
Free Agent Faceoff: K-Rod vs. Soriano vs. Janssen
Among the remaining free agents on the open market, only three held down a ninth-inning job for a significant portion of the season: Francisco Rodriguez, Rafael Soriano and Casey Janssen. The trio is similar in that each has a history of pitching in the ninth inning, each is in his mid-30s and each succeeds despite lacking an overpowering heater. Let’s take a bit of a closer look at each.
Rodriguez’s relative youth may surprise some; he’ll turn 33 in January. It may feel like he should be in his upper 30s, but that comes with the territory when you cut your teeth as a 20-year-old in the midst of a World Series run. K-Rod’s ERA has been 3.04 or lower in four of the past five seasons (a 4.38 in 2012 being the lone exception), and it has, in fact, been 3.04 or better in all but two of his 13 big league seasons. fWAR was down on K-Rod quite a bit this season, as his FIP of 4.50 was rather pedestrian. However, that number doesn’t account for his eye-popping 23.3 percent homer-to-flyball ratio. Rodriguez’s career mark in that field is 9.9 percent, and even if he’s more homer-prone now (and the past three seasons suggest he might be), it can be reasonably expected for his HR/FB to drop by as much as 10 percentage points. xFIP normalizes HR/FB when projecting a 2.91 ERA for Rodriguez, and even if the true talent level is something a bit higher, Rodriguez would have value. He’s the youngest of the three relievers in question and also had the best ground-ball rate (43.9 percent) in 2014.
Soriano is the elder statesman of this group at the age of 35. He, too, has just one ERA blemish under his belt over the past five seasons — a 4.12 mark in an injury-shortened season with the 2011 Yankees. Over the past three seasons he has a 2.84 ERA with 8.2 K/9 and 2.8 BB/9. Soriano throws the hardest of this bunch (91.5 mph average fastball in 2014) and was having far and away the best season of the group as of mid-August. Soriano’s ERA was under 2.00 entering play on Aug. 15, but he limped to the finish line, allowing 12 runs in 14 2/3 innings over his final 16 games. While that offers cause for concern, some clubs may just write it off as poor luck (he did have a .367 BABIP in that stretch).
Janssen, who turned 33 in September, was in the midst of a characteristically strong season when he caught a violent case of food poisoning. He reportedly lost eight pounds within a day’s time and was never fully recovered, which was a contributing factor to his 6.46 second-half ERA. Even when Janssen was healthy, his K/9 rate was down this season, however, and he does throw the slowest of this trio. However, Janssen has also shown the best command of this group in recent seasons, and he’s missed plenty of bats in previous years. Plus, his recent trials have come in the AL East, whereas Soriano and Rodriguez have both worked in the National League in recent years.
All three of these relievers could help a bullpen, but it doesn’t seem that all three will end up with a closer’s job. Clearly, this post is just a mere glimpse into each reliever’s profile, so feel free to do a bit more of your own research before answering…
Which reliever would you rather sign?
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Francisco Rodriguez 39% (5,943)
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Rafael Soriano 34% (5,110)
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Casey Janssen 27% (4,159)
Total votes: 15,212
Astros Outright Darin Downs
The Astros announced that they’ve outrighted left-hander Darin Downs to Triple-A after he cleared waivers. Additionally, Gregorio Petit, who was outrighted earlier this week, has accepted his assignment to Triple-A rather than electing free agency. Both will be invited to big league Spring Training. Houston’s 40-man roster is currently at 39 players.
Downs, who turns 30 today, worked to a 5.45 ERA with 7.0 K/9 and 4.9 BB/9 in 34 2/3 innings for Houston this past season. Downs is typically excellent against fellow left-handers, and while he held them to a .203 average in 2014, he also yielded a .337 OBP and .333 slugging percentage against them. However, his overall career numbers versus left-handed hitters remain impressive: a .202/.291/.310 batting line in 189 plate appearances.
East Notes: Clevenger, Hamels, Zobrist, Asdrubal, Nats
The Orioles‘ waiver claim of Ryan Lavarnway adds a fifth catcher to the 40-man roster and further clouds the future of fellow backstop Steve Clevenger, writes Roch Kubatko of MASNsports.com. Clevenger’s agent, Josh Kusnick, spoke with Kubatko about his client’s role in Baltimore, noting that while he’s been told Clevenger can win the backup catching job in Spring Training, it’s difficult to see happening after he was passed over last season. Clevenger hit .225/.289/.337 in a small sample of Major League plate appearances last year but slashed a much stronger .305/.366/.389 in 64 Triple-A games. Given the amount of clubs needing depth at catcher, I’d imagine that Clevenger would have interest to other teams.
Here’s more from baseball’s Eastern divisions…
- In his latest column, Peter Gammons takes a look back at the recent history of trades of ace-caliber pitchers and notes that there’s very little certainty that the Phillies would receive a franchise-altering package for Cole Hamels. Trades of pitchers such as Roy Halladay and Cliff Lee have not reaped many benefits, while others such as the Johan Santana trade netted one All-Star caliber player (Carlos Gomez) who didn’t break out until he was traded to a third team.
- Also in Gammons’ piece, he writes that many GMs believe the Giants will eventually trade a prospect package to the Rays to land Ben Zobrist.
- MLB.com’s Bryan Hoch tweeted earlier this week that the Yankees don’t appear to be in on Asdrubal Cabrera at this time and instead appear to be heading toward a Spring Training battle between prospects Rob Refsnyder and Jose Pirela in addition to minor league signees Nick Noonan and Cole Figueroa.
- In addition to a very heartfelt holiday wish to all of his readers, Pete Kerzel of MASNsports.com penned an excellent look at the Nationals‘ roster yesterday and ran down three players that he feels could be on the move before Opening Day. While Kerzel doesn’t think all three of Danny Espinosa, Tyler Moore and Tyler Clippard will be dealt, he can envision at least one of the three moving. Espinosa’s name is still popular in trade talks, Kerzel hears, so he could be shipped elsewhere if the Nats can acquire another second base option (I’d imagine today’s signing of Dan Uggla is unrelated to Espinosa’s availability, personally). Moore is a popular name when GM Mike Rizzo chats with AL clubs, as he could be a platoon DH/first baseman/outfielder. Clippard’s projected $9.3MM salary may simply be more than the Nats care to spend on a setup ace, and teams like the Blue Jays are known to be looking for a closer, Kerzel points out. Clippard was among the Nats’ most asked-about players at the Winter Meetings, and he would welcome the opportunity to move into a closer’s gig.
Nationals Sign Dan Uggla To Minor League Deal
The Nationals have signed Dan Uggla to a minor league contract with an invitation to Spring Training, the team announced (on Twitter). Uggla is a client of Turn 2 Sports Management.
The Nationals are plenty familiar with Uggla, who turns 35 in March, for a couple of reasons. He’s spent the bulk of his big league career in their division as a member of the Marlins and Braves, and additionally, GM Mike Rizzo drafted Uggla when he was the Diamondbacks’ scouting director back in 2001.
Clearly, Uggla’s five-year, $62MM contract extension with Atlanta didn’t pan out as the Braves had hoped. In fact, they’ll pay him $13MM this coming season after releasing him in the fourth year of his contract. Uggla’s bat significantly declined in 2013 and fell off even further in 2014. In total, he batted a mere .171/.291/.326 in 694 plate appearances over the life of those two seasons. While strikeouts have always been a problem for Uggla, his K-rate jumped to 31 percent in 2013-14, and his power vanished entirely in 2014 (two homers in 157 PA, .064 ISO).
The Nationals have some uncertainty at second base, as they’ll shift Anthony Rendon to third base full-time in 2015, with Ryan Zimmerman jumping to first base. That leaves Danny Espinosa, who has had offensive struggles of his own, and utility infielder Kevin Frandsen as the primary internal options at the keystone. And while Uggla’s name often invokes cynicism from fans, it’s tough to fault the Nats for taking a low-risk flier on a player that hit 30 or more homers each year from 2007-11 and has been roughly a league-average bat as recently as 2012.
Braves To Sign A.J. Pierzynski
DEC. 26: Pierzynski will earn exactly $2MM, and his contract contains an additional $700K worth of incentives, tweets Bob Nightengale of USA Today.
DEC. 24, 2:01pm: Pierzynski is expected to earn around $2MM in the deal, Jon Heyman of CBSSports.com tweets.
1:50pm: The Braves have reached a one-year deal with free agent catcher A.J. Pierzynski, MLB.com’s Mark Bowman reports on Twitter. Financial terms are not yet reported, and the deal will not become official until a physical that will be delayed by the holidays.
Soon to turn 38, Pierzynski played last year for the Red Sox and Cardinals, struggling to the lowest offensive output of his career. The veteran slashed just .251/.288/.337 and hit five home runs in 362 plate appearances. Advanced defensive metrics (via Baseball Prospectus) saw Pierzynski as slightly below average. The net package was below replacement level.
All that being said, Pierzynski has a lengthy history of solid-to-good output for his position. His lifetime slash of .281/.320/.424 is quite productive for a backstop, and he was good for an .827 OPS and 27 home runs as recent as 2012. Pierzynski has also generally been regarded as a sturdy option behind the dish, both in terms of defensive ability and (especially) durability.
It is ultimately not surprising to see the Braves add a veteran of this ilk. The team appears set to move Evan Gattis out from behind the plate (if not to another team altogether), and pairing well-regarded youngster Christian Bethancourt with a more established option makes plenty of sense.
If Pierzynski returns to his prior form, he could help lead a surprise run for a team that many have written off. Or, he could turn into July trade fodder. Of course, there may be some added risk given the frequent chatter about issues with Pierzynski’s personality. But that likely figured into the price tag, and he delivers scarce upside in a largely barren catching market.
Aaron Lunsford first tweeted news of Pierzynski’s agreement.
Quick Hits: Anthony Carter, KBO/NPB, Salary Inflation
Anthony Carter‘s deal with the Cubs is a split contract, Steve Adams of MLBTR reports on Twitter. Carter will earn at a $575K rate for time spent at the big league level, per Adams, who recently reported the righty’s signing with Chicago.
Here are a few more notes from a quiet Christmas Day:
- Over at Fangraphs, Bradley Woodrum breaks down the next potential wave of talent from Asia. The KBO and NPB each have a variety of interesting players, and Woodrum provides context for their recent statistical achievements wile discussing their possible translation to the big leagues.
- Writing for FOX Sports, Lewie Pollis presents a theory for the rise in player salaries. The influx of money into the game only means so much, argues Pollis, who cites to the economic notion of the “winner’s curse.” In essence, because the winning bidder for each free agent generally has the most optimistic view of that players’ likely future output and almost always outbids every other team, the overall spending environment is likely to overstate the actual number wins available for purchase in the market. In large part, says Pollis, the issue boils down to the fact that clubs overrate their own informational and analytical advantages against the rest of the league.
Poll: Most Surprising Free Agent Contract To Date
Every year, there are free agent signings that fall within, and without, of expectations. Some of those are probably the result of strategic decisions — signing early or trying to wait out the market, for example — while others may suggest that public perception of a player’s value does not always match demand or teams’ valuations. And then, of course, there is the nearly impossible-to-gauge element of non-monetary player considerations.
With that in mind, these are the signings to date that seem most surprising to me, in the sense that they land above or below the generally expected length and/or value:
Billy Butler, three years/$30MM, Athletics – Butler landed an attractive deal from an unexpected place after his old club declined the chance to have him for one year and $12.5MM
Melky Cabrera, three years/$42MM, White Sox – given Cabrera’s relative youth, his excellent overall record of offensive production in recent years, and the mediocre overall pool of free agent corner outfielders, this deal is perhaps lighter than expected
Zach Duke, three years/$15MM, White Sox – nobody saw this coming before the season, and I’m not sure that I saw anyone predict it at the end of the season, but a resurgent Duke took down a nice guarantee over even better term
Jason Hammel, two years/$20MM, Cubs – Scott Feldman got three years and $30MM last year, and Hammel is the better pitcher; this is, perhaps, an instance of player preference and timing taking control
Nick Markakis, four years/$44MM, Braves – true, MLBTR’s Steve Adams did predict that Markakis would get this deal and then some, but surely there were many skeptics out there
Russell Martin, five years/$82MM, Blue Jays – everyone knew that Martin would have a huge market as the only true starting catcher on the market, but coming in just under Brian McCann‘s guaranteee from last year still rates as a big surprise
Brandon McCarthy, four years/$48MM, Dodgers – sure, we all saw what kind of a pitcher McCarthy could be upon his mid-season trade to the Yankees, but many doubted that such a short sample (even accompanied by rosy projections moving forward) would be enough to deliver McCarthy this level of contract — especially with his injury history
Kendrys Morales, two years/$17MM, Royals – Morales severely underperformed last year and is limited to DH duties, yet out-earned Michael Morse
Hanley Ramirez, four years/$88MM, Red Sox – this deal came in way under MLBTR’s expectations; while Ramirez is obviously something of a lightning rod, his superstar-level abilities at the plate cannot be denied
David Robertson, four years/$46MM, White Sox – we at MLBTR felt all along that Robertson was in line for a guarantee on this level, even with a qualifying offer, but many others were not so sure; of course, you could argue that the Andrew Miller contract was even more surprising since he has never even worked as a closer
Most Surprising Free Agent Contract To Date?
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Russell Martin, five years/$82MM, Blue Jays 20% (5,709)
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Brandon McCarthy, four years/$48MM, Dodgers 17% (4,808)
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Billy Butler, three years/$30MM, Athletics 16% (4,551)
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Hanley Ramirez, four years/$88MM, Red Sox 14% (3,927)
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Kendrys Morales, two years/$17MM, Royals 10% (2,888)
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Nick Markakis, four years/$44MM, Braves 7% (2,009)
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Zach Duke, three years/$15MM, White Sox 6% (1,691)
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Melky Cabrera, three years/$42MM, White Sox 5% (1,541)
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David Robertson, four years/$46MM, White Sox 5% (1,529)
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Jason Hammel, two years/$20MM, Cubs 1% (403)
Total votes: 29,056