NL East Notes: Marlins, Alderson, Flores, Nats, Uggla
In his latest piece for FOX Sports, Rob Neyer examines the hot starts of both the Marlins and Rockies to see if either club can sustain its success and make a playoff run. While Miami’s trio of Jose Fernandez, Nate Eovaldi and Henderson Alvarez is imposing, he also points out that the club’s hitters are playing over their heads. A year after finishing last in the Majors in scoring, Miami is second in the NL in runs after adding Jarrod Saltalamacchia, Garrett Jones and Casey McGehee but doing little else. As for Colorado, they’ve posted the NL’s lowest strikeout-to-walk ratio, and it’s tough to buy the starts of Charlie Blackmon and Brandon Barnes, Neyer believes.
More links pertaining to the Senior Circuit’s Eastern division…
- Though the perception is that Omar Minaya left a mess in New York for Mets GM Sandy Alderson, Joel Sherman of the New York Post writes that the remnants of that mess are keeping the Mets afloat. He states that one could argue the team’s best players this season were acquired during Minaya’s tenure. Sherman calls Matt Harvey Minaya’s “parting gift” to the team, adding that the trades of Carlos Beltran and R.A. Dickey were made possible because Minaya’s regime brought them in to begin with. He notes that “this is not a final report card” as Alderson hasn’t been in charge long enough for a total transformation, but also points out that none of Alderson’s draftees have made the Majors yet.
- Baseball America’s Matt Eddy profiles Wilmer Flores for Mets fans as the team prepares to install him in its infield, noting that his bat is his ticket to the Major Leagues, but fans shouldn’t expect him to come close to replicating the .318/.357/.524 batting line he’s compiled in the PCL. He also has defensive flaws, as “his slow first step and well-below-average speed make him an imperfect fit at any spot but first base,” says Eddy.
- The Nationals have weathered injuries to Bryce Harper, Doug Fister and Wilson Ramos in large par due to a dominant bullpen, writes the Washington Post’s Adam Kilgore. Kilgore notes that offseason acquisition Jerry Blevins has been dominant to this point, and indeed, Blevins has a sub-3.00 ERA with the best strikeout rate (11.15 K/9) of his career in this season’s small sample.
- Despite his well-documented struggles, Dan Uggla isn’t likely to be released by the Braves, writes MLB.com’s Mark Bowman. The Braves don’t appear comfortable biting the bullet on his remaining $24MM, but they also aren’t comfortable with him as their starting second baseman. Atlanta is likely to evaluate its other options — Ramiro Pena and Tyler Pastornicky — in the coming weeks before turning to prospect Tommy La Stella for assistance, adds Bowman.
AL Central Links: Indians, Carroll, Tigers, Guerrier
In his latest piece for Fangraphs, Tony Blengino breaks down the Indians‘ pitching staff and why the team’s ERA has yet to live up to its peripheral stats. Blengino points out the lack of quality infield defenders as well as some difficulties in limiting contact that make it unlikely for Corey Kluber and Zach McAllister to live up to their own peripherals. Blengino concludes that while the staff is better than its 3.97 ERA, it’s not as good as its 3.40 FIP would indicate, and it isn’t good enough to save Cleveland from a mediocre defense and middling offense that ranks 12th in the AL in runs, 12th in OBP and last in slugging percentage.
More out of the AL Central…
- Scott Carroll, who is on the mound for the White Sox against the Cubs tonight, may not have been in the Majors were it not for a stroke of good luck, writes Dan Hayes of CSN Chicago. Carroll was home rehabbing from Tommy John surgery when he saw an “HBO Real Sports” special in which Steve Delabar explained how a weighted ball program saved his career following an injury. Carroll decided to try the program, and eight months removed from surgery, he had his fastball up to 94 mph.
- While many Tigers fans are calling for Corey Knebel to replace Phil Coke in the team’s bullpen, Chris Iott of MLive.com looks at why that’s unlikely at this time. While the club will likely have to switch to six right-handers eventually, it’s more likely that that scenario will happen when Joel Hanrahan is ready to join the team. Iott spoke with GM Dave Dombrowski, who said: “It is good for [Knebel} to continue his development. At this point, we have not discussed moving him, but that does not mean it cannot happen if we decide this is the best thing for him.”
- Mike Berardino of the St. Paul Pioneer Press writes that the Twins never officially asked Matt Guerrier to move back his opt-out clause before selecting his contract today. Guerrier says that he’s very happy to be back with the Twins, with whom he spent the first six years of his career. “This is where I wanted to be,” said Guerrier.
Matt Treanor Retires
Veteran catcher Matt Treanor has officially retired from his playing career, according to the Triple-A International League’s transactions page. MLBTR’s Zach Links has confirmed the news (Twitter link).
The 38-year-old Treanor signed a minor league deal with Cleveland this offseason but didn’t get into a game for the team’s Triple-A affiliate in Columbus as he dealt with a hamstring injury. After a setback in his rehab and with the birth of his first child nearing, Treanor has elected to spend time with his wife (three-time Olympic Gold Medalist Misty May) and child rather than pursue further rehab of the injury, according to Links.
In parts of nine Major League seasons between the Marlins, Rangers, Tigers, Royals and Dodgers, Treanor posted a .221/.313/.305 batting line and gunned down 26 percent of the baserunners who attempted to steal against him — highlighted by a league-leading 47 percent for the 2006 Marlins.
Padres Designate Hector Ambriz, Outright Xavier Nady
The Padres announced that they have designated right-hander Hector Ambriz for assignment and recalled fellow right-hander Kevin Quackenbush from Triple-A El Paso (Twitter link). Jeff Sanders of the San Diego Union-Tribune reports (via Twitter) that in addition to that move, outfielder Xavier Nady has been outrighted to El Paso. Nady, was designated for assignment earlier in the week to clear room for Kyle Blanks, will have three days to accept or reject the assignment.
Ambriz was with the team for less than 24 hours, making one relief appearance and allowing an earned run on two hits and two walks with a strikeout in two innings of work. Ambriz was excellent in 16 2/3 innings at Triple-A this season, allowing just three earned runs and posting a 13-to-3 K/BB ratio in that time. Overall, in his big league career, the 29-year-old Ambriz has a 5.35 ERA in 106 innings between the Indians, Astros and Padres.
In a return to the team that originally drafted him, Nady batted .135/.238/.405 with three home runs in 42 plate appearances — his first taste of big league action since 2012.
Giants, Romo Unlikely To Discuss Extension During Season
The Giants are interested in locking up closer Sergio Romo, reports Jon Heyman of CBS Sports, but the two sides aren’t likely to talk about a new contract during the season. According to Heyman, while the sides are “open” to re-engaging, Romo and the Giants have agreed to not let the talks disrupt the season for the time being.
That, of course, does not mean that the 31-year-old Romo is a lock to reach free agency. The Giants hammered out an extension for Hunter Pence last September just prior to the season’s completion, and they negotiated a new two-year deal for Tim Lincecum before he filed for free agency. San Francisco GM Brian Sabean has shown an affinity for retaining his players, recently signing Angel Pagan, Marco Scutaro, Santiago Casilla, Jeremy Affeldt and Javier Lopez to new multi-year deals upon the expiration of their previous deals with the Giants. He also signed Matt Cain to a five-year extension (with a sixth-year option) to keep the right-hander from hitting the open market.
Romo is off to a nice start to the 2014 season, having pitched to a 1.88 ERA with 7.5 K/9, 1.9 BB/9 and a 52.8 percent ground-ball rate. ERA estimators such as FIP and xFIP aren’t as bullish on his work to this point, but such metrics have, in the past, agreed that Romo’s skill set is that of an elite reliever. In 308 innings at the Major League level (all coming with the Giants), Romo has a 2.25 ERA (2.59 FIP, 2.98 xFIP) and has averaged better than 10 strikeouts per nine innings pitched.
Should he hit the open market, Romo could be perceived as the prize of the reliever market next offseason. He’d be joined by names like Jason Grilli, LaTroy Hawkins, Jim Johnson, Casey Janssen and potentially Rafael Soriano, assuming his $14MM option is declined. Huston Street could hit the open market as well, though it stands to reason that his $7MM club option will be exercised as long as he is healthy. If not, he wouldn’t provide much competition for Romo anyhow.
Romo is a client of Meister Sports Management, as shown in MLBTR’s Agency Database. A look at MLBTR’s Extension Tracker shows that Meister Sports was the agency behind Romo’s previous two-year deal with the Giants (which bought out his remaining arbitration years) as well as the four-year, $12MM extension signed by Cory Luebke with the Padres and the three-year, $16.5MM pact inked by Sean Marshall with the Reds. Clearly, a deal to buy out multiple free agent seasons for Romo would top those contracts with relative ease.
Rangers Promote Sardinas, Odor; Designate Baker, Wilson
The Rangers will execute a series of roster moves, the club announced. Texas will designate righty Scott Baker and infielder Josh Wilson to help create roster space for the call-up of top prospects Luis Sardinas and Rougned Odor.
In the aggregate, the moves represent a fairly substantial re-working of the club’s roster as the injuries continue to mount. Also involved in today’s moves were infielder Donnie Murphy, who was placed on the DL, and righty Justin Germano, whose contract was purchased from Triple-A.
Baker, 32, made just one appearance for Texas, throwing 5 1/3 innings and allowing just two earned runs. The veteran had decided not to exercise his opt-out clause with the team, and was rewarded at the time with a call-up. The 33-year-old Wilson had taken 72 plate appearances with the team, putting up a .224/.257/.269 triple-slash.
Both Odor and Sardinas are 20-year-old middle infielders out of Venezuela — though the latter is actually nearly a year older — who have consistently been ranked among the team’s top prospects by evaluators. Baseball America put Odor at 42nd on its top 100 list, while predicting a 2015 arrival. Other observers, such as ESPN.com’s Keith Law (64th) and MLB.com (54th) roughly concurred with that placement. Sardinas, who already received a cup of coffee in 2014, landed at the 70th overall slot on MLB.com’s rankings, though he did not appear it the top 100 of either of the other two.
Before the season, BA called Odor the club’s top prospect. In that publication’s view, while he is somewhat undersized, Odor’s raw tools play up due to an outstanding swing and approach, strong baserunning instincts, and overall positive intangibles. While Odor is heralded mostly for his bat, Sardinas is a glove-first prospect. Speed, range, arm strength, and contact at the dish are the calling cards for the youngster.
The pair of middle infielders entered the year without any MLB service time. Were they to stick on the active roster from this point forward, both players would stand to pick up 143 days of service and position themselves as fairly sure bets to achieve Super Two status. (As MLBTR’s Mark Polishuk recently noted with respect to the call-up of Marcus Stroman, the highest level of service required for Super Two status in recent years has been two years and 146 days. This year, it projects to land at just 2.128.) On the other hand, given their youth and the presumptive return of Jurickson Profar and Murphy, this call-up may not be permanent.
Braves Expect Major Revenue Boost From Reworked TV Deal
While prior reports have indicated that the Braves re-negotiated aspects of their oft-bemoaned television rights package, the magnitude of the impact remained unknown until today, as Tim Tucker of the Atlanta Journal-Constitution reports. Greg Maffei, the CEO of Liberty Media (the Braves’ publicly-held corporate owner), said on a quarterly conference call today that the renegotiated contracts would add “probably in the order of $500MM of incremental revenue over the life of the contracts of value to us.”
The original set of contracts was never fully publicized, but were often referred to — even by team executives — as sub-market in comparison to the more recent mega-deals being locked up around the league. “They were at-market deals when they were done, but the market has changed,” team chairman and CEO Terry McGuirk said in early 2012. “We will have to look elsewhere for the increases that we will need in revenue to continue to build this franchise. It’s what the owners at the time decided to do, so we have to live with it.” While the situation may not have been crippling, it imposed an obvious limitation on the team’s spending capacity.
It now appears that the Braves will not have to live with those out-of-date TV revenue streams — for the most part. Maffei noted in his remarks that the original contracts ran through 2027, but did not specify the timeline of the reworked terms. A key aspect of the ultimate, bottom-line impact of the renegotiation thus remains unknown; as Maffei said, the estimated $500MM revenue boost is a sum that will be spread across the still-unreported “life of the contracts.” Much as in the case of a pre-arb player giving up future free agent seasons, it seems implicit that the Braves may have sacrificed some future years to find relief from a set of deals that reportedly included no mechanisms to force a renegotiation.
For some context, consider that the Phillies’ recent TV deal came in at $2.5B over 25 years (and also gave the Phils certain equity and ad revenue rights). As I explained at the time, that contract (unsurprisingly) did not spread that revenue evenly, but rather increased it year-over-year. From a present-value perspective, of course, the greater future annual payouts would take a larger hit. Likewise, in the Braves case, Maffei hinted at a similar situation. Calling the reworked rights situation “very positive,” he noted that it “adds a lot of value even on a present value basis to the Braves.”
Even if the down-the-line earning potential is not a full half-billion dollars in today’s money, though, it is clear that the impact on the club’s bottom line is substantial. If nothing else, that $500MM figure represents a solid 20% of the total rights fees achieved in the Phillies deal, which seems impressive given the limitations facing the organization.
And, of course, we know that Atlanta has already embarked on a rather remarkable extension spree. In the first five months of 2014, Atlanta has guaranteed over $300MM to six already-controlled players over a total of 30 seasons. Prior to this run of new deals, the Braves had not extended a player with less than five years of service during the six-year term of GM Frank Wren. The team also paid up for Ervin Santana at the last minute after an early spate of pitching injuries threatened the chances of contention this year.
It would appear, then, that at least some payroll impact has already been felt. The club had carried a payroll in the low-to-mid $90MM level since breaking nine figures back in 2008, but that mark jumped to over $112MM for 2014. And the team’s future salary obligations, which stood at 24th in the league heading into the offseason, have increased more than five-fold in the meantime. (As I noted at that time, the Braves had among the lowest ratios of future commitments to recent high payroll.)
Of course, the television component is only part of the overall picture. When Atlanta’s recent spending began, it seemed that the primary driver was the recently-announced Cobb County ballpark and development project. Maffei acknowledged the role of that deal as well, saying that “the new stadium and the complex around it … are going to create a lot of value for the Braves.” With management having “created a great product with a controlled payroll,” said Maffei, the Braves “have been a profitable team” and are an “asset [that] has gone up quite nicely in value over the last several years.”
Minor Moves: Raul Valdes, Nik Turley, Ryan Searle
Here are the day’s minor moves:
- Astros lefty Raul Valdes has accepted his outright assignment to Triple-A rather than electing free agency, tweets Chris Cotillo of MLBDailyDish.com. Valdes was designated and then outrighted after an ugly eight-appearance stint in Houston this year (five earned in 3 2/3 with four strikeouts and three walks).
- The Yankees have agreed to re-sign lefty Nik Turley to a minor league deal, reports Cotillo (Twitter link). The 24-year-old was recently released to clear a 40-man roster spot. Turley has dealt with arm issues and is yet to throw a competitive pitch this year, but has posted intriguing strikeout totals across his time in the minors since being taken in the 50th round of the 2008 draft. Last year, working mostly as a starter at the Double-A level, Turley threw to a 3.79 ERA with 8.8 K/9 and 4.7 BB/9 over 145 innings.
- Australian righty Ryan Searle has been given his release by the Cubs, Bruce Miles of the Daily Herald reports on Twitter. The 24-year-old had been working at the Double-A level this year, pitching to a 6.63 ERA in 19 innings with 8.1 K/9 against 4.3 BB/9.
- As reflected in MLBTR’s DFA Tracker, the following players remain in DFA limbo: Elliot Johnson (Indians), Heath Bell (Rays), Xavier Nady (Padres), George Kottaras (Indians), and Omar Quintanilla (Mets). Joining that group today is Buddy Boshers of the Angels.
Amateur Notes: Top Picks, Gordon, Zimmer, Hoffman, Nola
Baseball’s amateur talent season is in full swing, even if it generates less national hype than the football version. (Of course, if you follow the NFL, you’ll want to pay close attention today to MLBTR’s sister site, ProFootballRumors.com, for the latest draft news and rumors.) The Rule 4 amateur draft is set to begin on June 5, with the July 2 international amateur signing period just behind it. Here’s the latest:
- Despite some recent questions, N.C. State lefty Carlos Rodon still lands atop the first mock draft of Baseball America’s John Manuel. While the Astros will surely be tempted by an attractive group of prep arms that includes Tyler Kolek and Brady Aiken, says Manuel, Rodon’s two primary offerings are good enough to make him a big league pen option right now, though obviously he’ll be taken as a starter. Ultimately, his “combination of stuff, physicality and track record” makes Rodon the most likely pick for Houston, in Manuel’s estimation. The first position player off the board in the mock is high school shortstop Nick Gordon, who Manuel has going to the Twins fifth overall.
- Aiken takes top billing in the top 100 draft prospect list produced by ESPN.com’s Keith Law (Insider link), based upon his wide arsenal of offerings and lofty ceiling. One of the largest gaps among the top potential choices (as between Law’s ranking and Manuel’s draft projection) belongs to University of San Francisco outfielder Bradley Zimmer. Law places him at fifth overall, citing his size, athleticism, and projectable power, while Manuel believes he could fall into the second half of the first round.
- It was recently reported that Jeff Hoffman, who had been viewed as a top-five choice, will undergo Tommy John surgery. While that surely bumps him down the board, Law still has Hoffman as the 25th-best player available, while Manuel thinks the Blue Jays will take a chance on his rehab with the second of the team’s two early-round choices (9th and 11th overall).
- In response to reader questions, MLB.com prospect guru Jim Callis joins the consensus holding Rodon, Kolek, and Aiken as the three top players available. While the White Sox may hope to get a college arm, says Callis, Chicago will probably take whoever is left from that trio (even if it is not Rodon) with the third choice in the draft.
- Profiling Louisiana State righty Aaron Nola, Callis says that Reds hurler Mike Leake is a good comp as a command-first, quick-to-the-bigs arm. But Callis opines that Nola has somewhat more upside than Leake, who was the most recent player to jump straight to MLB out of the draft.
- After recently discussing the set of international players expected to be signed to cap-busting bonuses, Ben Badler of Baseball America profiles five other July 2 prospects who are making waves. Leading the pack is Venezuelan outfielder Brayan Hernandez, who Badler says could near the $2MM level in his contract. According to Badler, Hernandez is both well-rounded and projectable, and could be headed to the Mariners.
Angels Designate Buddy Boshers For Assignment
The Angels have designated lefty Buddy Boshers for assignment, the club announced. The move was made to clear space for fellow southpaw Brooks Raley, who was just claimed off waivers from the Twins.
Like Raley, Boshers is a 25-year-old with only minimal MLB exposure. In 15 1/3 relief innings last year, he worked to a 4.70 ERA with 7.6 K/9 against 4.7 BB/9. Boshers had put up consecutive strong seasons in the upper minors, but is off to a tough start in 2014. Through 13 innings at Triple-A this year, Boshers has a 6.23 ERA with 8.3 K/9 but a startling 9.0 BB/9.