Rockies Notes: Monfort, Starters, Payroll, Fowler
The Rockies' pre-arbitration pay scale continues to be unpopular amongst agents, tweets MLBTR's Tim Dierkes. Colorado pays a league-minimum $500K for players with between zero and one year of service, then bumps that up by just $1K for each additional service year before arbitration. Here's more from the Rockies:
- In a Q&A with fans today over Twitter (transcript via the Denver Post), club owner Dick Monfort covered a variety of topics. Expressing confidence in executive VP and GM Dan O'Dowd, Monfort said that the club is capable of reaching 90 wins next year if it maintains a healthy roster.
- Colorado could be turning the corner in its efforts to put together a strong pitching staff despite a notoriously hitter-friendly home park. Monfort noted that the club's 2013 rotation was "statistically the best pitching in our history." And more improvements could be on the way: Monfort says that top prospects Jonathan Gray and Eddie Butler "could potentially be pitching at Coors Field by late summer."
- Monfort also confirmed the organizational philosophy of adding arms that can induce grounders, noting that pitchers like Clayton Kershaw, Tim Lincecum, and Stephen Strasburg all sport career ERAs of over 6.00 at Coors Field. Major off-season acquisition Brett Anderson, notably, sports a career 54.9% ground-ball rate that lands well above league-average (which sat at 44.5% last year). Though he struggled with surrendering home runs last year (17.9% HR/FB), Anderson managed a career-best 62.9% ground-ball rate, continuing a trend of increasing his induction of grounders in each of his five MLB campaigns.
- Monfort fielded several less-than-positive inquiries regarding spending. He argued that the club's payroll has increased 20% over last year, and said that despite strong attendance (9th in the bigs), the team maintained only the 28th-highest ticket prices and boasted only the 19th-ranked market in the league. He noted, however, that the team's TV deal "will improve next year."
- On the Dexter Fowler trade (which brought back Jordan Lyles and Brandon Barnes), Monfort said that the team was pleased to add "a good pitcher and center fielder." The owner says he is confident in the team's outfield depth, and explained that the deal was made because "it allowed us to do other things." The swap cleared the club's books of the $7.35MM owed Fowler in 2014 and, presumably, an increase through arbitration next year. It likely played an important role in allowing the club to take on Anderson's contract ($8MM in 2014, less $2MM paid by the A's, with a $12MM option for 2015) and sign Justin Morneau (two years, $12.5MM).
Jamie Moyer To Join Phillies Broadcast Team
Ironman starter Jamie Moyer has to date seemingly left open the possibility of a return to professional pitching, but the 51-year-old has now decided to take a different role in the game. As MLB.com's Todd Zolecki reports, Moyer is set to join fellow MLB veteran Matt Stairs in the Phillies broadcast booth for the coming season.
Moyer and Stairs were both part of the Phils' 2008 World Series-winning club. Moyer, of course, last saw big league action in 2012, when he threw 53 2/3 innings of 5.70 ERA ball for the Rockies, becoming the oldest hurler to notch a win in the bigs.
Over his remarkable career, which began in 1986 with the Cubs, Moyer threw over 4,000 MLB innings, most of them as a starter. The ageless wonder, who maintains a lifetime 4.25 ERA, put up full seasons of work through his mid-40's. The best stretch of Moyer's career came between 2001 and 2003 with the Mariners, over which he logged 100 starts, 655 1/3 innings, and posted a 3.34 ERA on the back of 5.4 K/9 and 2.2 BB/9
Nolan Ryan Joins Astros As Executive Advisor
Former Rangers CEO Nolan Ryan will join the Astros in an advisory role, reports Mark Berman of Houston's Fox 26 (Twitter links). Ryan's duties will span both the business and baseball operations side of the organization, says Berman.
The club confirmed the report via press release, indicating that Ryan would serve as the team's "Executive Advisor." Though Ryan represents a high-profile addition to the Houston front office, his role will reportedly be limited and somewhat ad hoc. Ryan does not plan to maintain an office or residence in Houston, tweets Jeff Wilson of the Fort Worth Star-Telegram. He will primarily perform "special assignments," according to Wilson.
Ryan previously spent time with the Astros in the front office (in the mid-2000s) and, of course, as a player (1980-88). His son Reid is the club's president of business operations.
Marlins Designate Chris Hatcher For Assignment
The Marlins have designated reliever Chris Hatcher for assignment to create roster space for Carlos Marmol, the club announced. Hatcher, 29, had spent his entire career in the Marlins' system.
After seeing a cup of coffee with the Fish back in 2010 as a catcher, Hatcher shed his gear and took to the hill, reaching the bigs again in the very next season from the opposite end of the battery. The double-duty man has produced solid results throwing in the upper minors, but has not found success at the MLB level. Hatcher has thrown just 33 2/3 innings of 7.22 ERA ball over the last three seasons.
Dodgers Avoid Arbitration With Kenley Jansen
The Dodgers have avoided arbitration with closer Kenley Jansen, with the two sides agreeing to a $4.3MM salary for the coming season, reports Jon Heyman of CBSSports.com (via Twitter). Jansen, 26, is a client of Wasserman Media Group.
Jansen's settlement amount comes in just above the mid-point between the hurler's $5.05MM filing figure and the team's $3.5MM counter. He falls a full half-million dollars shy of the projection of MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz. Though Jansen has been among the most dominant relievers in the game — last year, in 76 2/3 innings, he maintained a 1.88 ERA with 13.0 K/9 against just 2.1 BB/9 — he has not racked up quite the save tallies (28 last year and 25 in 2012) of several other big-name closers who earned more in their first run through arbitration.
Roy Oswalt Retires
Veteran right-hander and three-time All-Star Roy Oswalt has decided to retire, reports ESPN's Buster Olney (on Twitter). Though he's retiring from playing the game, it looks as if Oswalt will join the business side of baseball, as Olney also adds that he will begin working with former agent Bob Garber.
That Oswalt, 36, made "only" three All-Star teams is somewhat surprising (to this writer at least), given his run of dominance in the early 2000s. In 2001, Oswalt finished second in the National League Rookie of the Year voting, fifth in the Cy Young vote and 22nd in the MVP vote on the strength of a 2.73 ERA with 9.1 K/9 and 1.5 BB/9 in 141 2/3 innings (unfortunately for Oswalt, that was also Albert Pujols' rookie year).
Over the next 10 seasons with the Astros, Oswalt turned in a 3.24 ERA with 7.4 K/9 and 2.1 BB/9. He was flipped to the Phillies in 2010 in exchange for Anthony Gose, J.A. Happ and Jonathan Villar (Gose and Happ have since been traded by Houston — both are Blue Jays — while Villar should be their shortstop in 2014). Oswalt was rock-solid in his two seasons with the Phillies when healthy (2.96 ERA in 221 2/3 innings) and helped to compose one of the most intimidating rotation quartets in recent history alongside Roy Halladay, Cliff Lee and Cole Hamels.
However, injuries began to pile up quickly for Oswalt, as his already troublesome back worsened and was joined by elbow and hamstring injuries over the next several seasons. Oswalt inked midseason deals with the Rangers and Rockies in 2012 and 2013, respectively, but pitched ineffectively in those hitter-friendly environments and didn't top 60 innings with either club.
Oswalt will retire with a lifetime 163-102 record to go with an outstanding 3.36 ERA, 7.4 K/9 and 2.1 BB/9. His 127 ERA+ indicates that even with his struggles in 2012-13, his work, on the whole, was 27 percent better than a league-average starter throughout his career. Though he never took home Cy Young honors, Oswalt had five finishes in the Top 5 and also had a sixth-place finish to his credit as well.
Baseball-Reference pegs Oswalt's career at 49.9 wins above replacement, and Fangraphs' valuation is a near-mirror image at 49.7 WAR. Oswalt earned roughly $97MM in his playing career, according to B-Ref. Looking beyond Major League Baseball, Oswalt twice represented the United States on a global scale, winning a Gold Medal in the 2000 Summer Olympics and also pitching for Team USA in the 2009 World Baseball Classic.
MLBTR wishes him well in his new career path and congratulates Oswalt on an excellent Major League career.
Central Links: Stetter, Bonifacio, Ryan, Harden
Former Brewers reliever Mitch Stetter announced on Twitter last night that he has retired from baseball and accepted a coaching job with the Royals. Chris Cotillo of MLB Daily Dish tweets that Stetter will be the Double-A bullpen coach. Stetter, 33, hasn't appeared in the bigs since 2011 after his career was cut short by hip surgery and a back injury. From 2009-11 with the Brew Crew, Stetter posted a 3.46 ERA with 9.4 K/9 and 5.7 BB/9 in 75 1/3 innings. While his command was clearly lacking, the southpaw held opposing lefties to just a .194/.310/.335 slash line in his career. Best of luck in your coaching career, Mitch.
Elsewhere in baseball's Central divisions…
- Ken Rosenthal of FOX Sports tweets that the Royals will only be on the hook for about $575K of Emilio Bonifacio's salary if he clears release waivers tomorrow at 2pm ET and becomes a free agent. While a claim is unlikely, a number of teams are interested in Bonifacio, he adds in a second tweet.
- Cotillo tweets that as many as nine teams have interest in Bonifacio. Roch Kubatko of MASNsports.com tweets that the Orioles are one of those teams, pointing out that Bonifacio has long been a favorite of manager Buck Showalter. Besides that, the Orioles lack a clear starter at Bonifacio's best position — second base. However, Kubatko also tweets that Baltimore isn't interested in him at his $3.5MM salary, so a waiver claim isn't likely.
- Twins GM Terry Ryan, who announced yesterday that he has cancer, is among the game's most respected general managers, writes Phil Rogers of MLB.com. Rogers recalls that Ryan displayed the ultimate selflessness a GM could show back in 2001 when, with the Twins facing contraction, Ryan turned down a chance to run the Blue Jays to stay with his club.
- Right-hander Rich Harden wants to pitch in 2014 but won't sign anywhere until he's further along in his throwing, tweets Darren Wolfson of 1500 ESPN. The Twins wouldn't rule out a return for Harden, even though the former ace never pitched for one of Minnesota's affiliates after signing a minor league deal with the club last offseason.
Scouting Masahiro Tanaka
Though he's yet to throw a pitch in the Major Leagues, the Yankees committed a massive $175MM to sign 25-year-old righty Masahiro Tanaka in January. $20MM of that went to his old team, the Rakuten Golden Eagles, with $155MM going to Tanaka. Tanaka's contract is the third-largest ever for a pitcher in MLB history, topped only by Clayton Kershaw's new extension with the Dodgers and C.C. Sabathia's 2008 free agent deal with the Yankees. Like those deals, Tanaka's includes an opt-out clause.
Tanaka comes to MLB for the 2014 season after posting what many scouts refer to as "video game numbers" in Japan last year: a 24-0 record and a 1.27 ERA in 212 innings. Last Friday, Yankees GM Brian Cashman did his best to temper expectations for Tanaka in a conversation with ESPN's Ian O'Connor. Cashman said he expects the pitcher to have growing pains in the States, and asked his ultimate upside two or three years down the road, the GM said Tanaka "has the potential to be a really solid consistent number three starter." Free agent salaries continue to rise, but I don't think the Yankees would spend that kind of money on a pitcher they thought might become a number three a year or two before his opt-out clause comes up.
Unbiased opinions were needed. To get a feel for Tanaka's repertoire and approach, injury risk, and overall ability, I spoke to high-ranking officials with scouting-related positions for four MLB teams (referred to simply as "scouts" later in this article). Each has seen the pitcher in person extensively, and none work for the Yankees.
Before we begin, here is a refresher on the 20-80 (or 2-8) scouting scale from Kevin Goldstein, formerly of Baseball Prospectus: "A score of 50 is major-league average, 60 is above-average (also referred to as "plus"), and 70 is among the best ("plus-plus"). 80 is top of the charts, and not a score that gets thrown around liberally." For more information on scouting pitchers from Goldstein, click here.
Scouting Report: Three Plus Pitches
Tanaka's fastball typically sits between 91-93 miles per hour, with the ability to touch 96 mph. Most of the scouts to whom I spoke graded his fastball as a 6, or plus, though one put a 70 on the heater. One scout praised his fastball in saying he throws a "heavy ball," though two others noted the pitch can get flat or straight at times. One of those two said Tanaka's fastball is "probably his most hittable pitch, in a way."
Scouts agreed Tanaka has a second or third gear for his fastball. In Japan he'd often be in "cruise control" for the first half of the game, ramping his fastball up into the mid-90s later if he needed to. Noted one scout who loves Tanaka, "When they're in Japan, they don't have to throw their best stuff because the league's not as good." That figures to change for Tanaka in MLB, given the deeper lineups.
Tanaka clearly had plus-plus control in Japan, with walk rates below two per nine innings in each of the last four seasons. Scouts feel that will translate to plus in the States. Grading Tanaka's command, one scout said "60 or 70," another went with 55, and one gave a 5. The most pessimistic scout elaborated, "I actually thought with the offspeed stuff, the splitter and the slider especially, I thought there was more command of those pitches. And I thought with the fastball he definitely threw strikes to an above average level but I thought the command, pinpointing it, was just average." When Tanaka does get into trouble in MLB, there's a good chance it will be the result of throwing hittable fastballs.
Next is Tanaka's splitter, by most accounts a nasty pitch. One scout put an 8 on it, suggesting if you don't put an 8 on this particular pitch, then you might be the type who never gives out 8s. He explained, "It's not a tumbling pitch. It's more of a disappearing fastball. It's not a Contreras splitter that comes out and kind of flutters." Two others put 7s on the splitter, though one dissented with a 6. That person admitted the split "could be plus-plus," but unlike his peers, he feels Tanaka's best pitch is his slider.
The lone scout who prefers the slider explained, "I think it's a true slider with a good tilt, he would get depth to it more than ones that are plus-plus." He feels the slider has a slight lead over the splitter, noting the slider has been Tanaka's pitch since his high school days. With the other scouts, Tanaka's slider received a 6 across the board.
It is generally agreed that Tanaka's fastball, splitter, and slider are plus pitches, and he'll get strikeouts with each. For a change of pace, he also throws a slow curveball, described by one scout as "useful." This pitch grades in the 45-50 range. Tanaka's ability to throw this pitch for strikes allows him to pitch backward if he chooses. Typically, though, Tanaka's approach is aggressive, as one scout explained: "He pitches inside, he doesn't pitch away from contact a lot. Some guys in Japan, they're not as aggressive. He has more of a Western style that he's not afraid to go up and in, he's not afraid to pitch inside. He pitches kind of with a little chip on his shoulder."
Reduced Strikeout Rate: Red Flag?
Though he posted a 1.27 ERA, Tanaka struck out only 7.8 batters per nine innings last year in Japan. That mark was his lowest since 2010. While one scout admitted, "It's certainly not a positive," all agreed the reduced strikeout rate is not a cause for concern. Explained another, "He's the type of guy that if he wants to, he can go out and strike out hitters. He's a brilliant, smart pitcher and he's not afraid to pitch to contact. I saw him doing that a lot that last couple years. That's one of the reasons he was able to stay efficient with his pitch counts." Throw in MLB lineups that are much more prone to swinging and missing, and there's good reason to believe Tanaka will whiff more than 7.8 per nine in 2014.
Heavy Workload: Cause For Concern?
In December, multiple MLB executives expressed concern to Yahoo's Jeff Passan regarding Tanaka's high pitch counts. The righty averaged about 110 pitches per regular season start in 2013, with seven outings in excess of 122 and a high of 136. Most famously, Tanaka threw 160 pitches in a Japan Series game and another 15 the next day in relief. In total, he threw 1,315 innings through his age-24 season, which hasn't happened in the Majors since the mid-70s, according to SI's Tom Verducci. Perhaps the GMs and owners calling the shots were worried about Tanaka's high pitch counts, but most of the scouts we talked to brushed it off.
"He's been trained for that his entire life," remarked one. Another noted his durable, solid body and suggested he's someone who might be able to handle throwing a lot of pitches. One scout noted that while it's obviously not a great idea to throw 160 pitches in a game, Japanese pitchers typically get six or seven days rest between starts, making the total mileage similar to MLB starters. None of the four feel that Tanaka's injury risk exceeds that of a typical MLB starter. Keep in mind, however, that the chance of going on the disabled list for the average MLB starter is around 39% for 2014, based on research from Jeff Zimmerman for FanGraphs.
Tanaka's Overall Projection
In a tweet last month, Joel Sherman of the New York Post said the comparables he's heard most often for Tanaka are Hiroki Kuroda and prime-age Dan Haren, plus reliever Bryan Harvey for his splitter. One scout agreed with the Haren comp, noting that Tanaka has more arm strength. Others cited Zack Greinke and Matt Cain.
In terms of placing an overall grade on Tanaka, opinions ranged, but all were quite positive. One scout, who admitted being "toward the higher end of the spectrum," described Tanaka as a number one starter, without hesitation. He expects Tanaka to contend for the Cy Young, and feels he'll be one of the ten best starting pitchers in MLB in 2014.
The other three scouts placed Tanaka in a slightly lower tier, ranking him in the #15-25 range among all MLB starters for 2014. Two of them described him as a number two starter.
The mystery of how Tanaka will perform in Major League Baseball should be resolved in short order. He'll face MLB hitters in Spring Training later this month, and could have a bit of a soft landing with the Yankees' first three regular season games coming in Houston in early April.
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Quick Hits: Harden, O’s, Arroyo, Stanton, d’Arnaud
32-year-old righty Rich Harden is not retiring, tweets Chris Cotillo of MLBDailyDish.com. Though he has not played professionally since 2011, and had a comeback bid with the Twins fall apart last year due to multiple, ongoing injury issues, Harden will apparently give it another go. Harden has been brilliant at times in his career, and owns a lifetime 3.76 ERA over 928 1/3 innings (including 9.2 K/9 and 4.1 BB/9).
Here are a few more notes to round out the evening:
- One factor in Bronson Arroyo's decision to sign with the Diamondbacks rather than the Orioles, reports Dan Connolly of the Baltimore Sun, was the fact that Baltimore had scrapped deals with Grant Balfour and Tyler Colvin over concerns with their physicals. The O's offer was on par with that of the D-Backs: it was for slightly less guaranteed money, but carried a greater third-year option value. While Connolly writes that other factors — including a preference for the NL West — certainly played a role, he says that the risk of a deal falling apart at this stage of the off-season weighed substantially in Arroyo's decision-making process.
- The Marlins have made clear that they hope to extend star outfielder Giancarlo Stanton, but MLB.com's Joe Frisaro reports that Stanton still wants to see what the organization does moving forward. "I want some team security as well," Stanton said. "I'm very pleased with how things panned out for me. But I would like to see it grow. I have my security, somewhat now. I'd like to see a team full of that, which we are going in the right direction." The 24-year-old slugger inicated that he does not expect to engage in talks until after the coming season. "In order for the team to have security," he said. "that doesn't happen in two seconds. That happens over a season or over two seasons. You show me that, and we can get something going."
- A major factor in the rebuilding process of another NL East club — the Mets — is the development of young catcher Travis d'Arnaud. Though he struggled at the plate in limited action last year, the backstop comes with an excellent pedigree with the bat. Promisingly, moreover, he also showed signs of adding value in another area, writes Adam Rubin of ESPNNewYork.com: in his short season of work at the MLB level, d'Arnaud flashed outstanding pitch-framing ability.
NL West Notes: Padres, Benoit, Belt, Arroyo, Bradley
Padres fans got some welcome news this evening, as it was announced that Time Warner Cable will begin airing Padres games for the coming season, MLB.com's Corey Brock tweets. As Wendy Thurm of Fangraphs has explained, the failure of Time Warner (and, at the time, AT&T U-verse and DISH Network) to agree to the Fox Sports San Diego subscriber fee not only left many fans without access to games, but put a significant dent in the Friars' expected annual payout. Here's more from San Diego and the rest of the NL West:
- When the Padres inked reliever Joaquin Benoit to a two-year, $14MM deal earlier in the off-season, it raised an immediate question whether he or incumbent Huston Street would close. As Jeff Sanders of the San Diego Union-Tribune writes, both back-end arms are content with the situation and their roles. "[Street] is going to shut the door," said Benoit, "and I'm going to try to give him as many games with leads as I can." For his part, Street — whose deal includes a $7MM club option for 2015 — says that he understands the business side of things and hopes only for success for his new teammate. "It's a smart move on the Padres' part," he said. "It gives them options for 2015. It gives them options if I go down. It gives them options if I struggle."
- After a breakout campaign last year put him in position for a nice payday as a Super Two, Giants first baseman Brandon Belt has yet to reach agreement with his club on a price for his 2014 season. The sides' filing figures ($3.6MM against $2.05MM) are the furthest apart in relative terms among remaining arbitration cases. As Henry Schulman of the San Francisco Chronicle reports, however, it remains likely that a hearing will be avoided, as team and player both recently expressed an expectation that a settlement will be forthcoming.
- Despite adding another rotation arm in Bronson Arroyo, Diamondbacks GM Kevin Towers says that top prospect Archie Bradley can still earn a starting spot out of camp, reports FOX Sports Arizona's Jack Magruder. "We want to get out of the gate quick," said Towers. "I've said from the beginning, with Archie, it's not about trying to save a year, save money. We need to win games. If he's ready coming out of the spring and we're a better ballclub with Archie being in it, he's going to be there." Putting the 21-year-old on the MLB roster for Opening Day would mean giving up the ability to extend team control for an extra season, but Towers' statement indicates that is still a real possibility. (On the other hand, given that factor and Bradley's limited seasoning, it will probably be a tall order for him to unseat one of the expected five as a practical matter.) Fellow righty Randall Delgado would likely join the bullpen if he does not earn a turn in the rotation, said Towers, since he is out of options.
- The Arroyo signing has earned mixed reviews; as MLBTR's Charlie Wilmoth opined, for example, the $23.5MM guarantee that he received is a debatable investment in a market that promised Paul Maholm just $1.5MM. One under-the-radar issue with Arroyo, argues Dave Cameron of Fangraphs, is that his pronounced struggles against lefties have been masked somewhat by pitching in a division (the National League Central) that has not featured the volume of left-handed bats to take full advantage of the platoon split. In particular, Cameron says, should the Diamondbacks reach the post-season, Arroyo's achilles heel could significantly impair his usefulness to his new club.