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Diamondbacks Sign Corbin Burnes

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The Diamondbacks have officially announced their signing of Corbin Burnes to a six-year free agent deal. Burnes, a client of the Boras Corporation, is reportedly guaranteed $210MM and can opt out after two seasons. He’ll collect a $10MM signing bonus up front and is due $30MM salaries in the first two years. He’d need to weigh whether to leave the remaining four years and $140MM on the table after 2026. The contract reportedly includes roughly $60MM in deferred money and varying no-trade protection over the course of the deal.

The news is a shocking turn of events, as Burnes had garnered plenty of interest in free agency but had not been connected to Arizona at any point in the offseason. While some rumored suitors for the right-hander’s services such as the Yankees and Red Sox turned to alternative options for the front of their rotations by signing Max Fried and trading for Garrett Crochet respectively, a number of known interested parties remained in the mix. That included not only the incumbent Orioles but also the big-market Giants and Blue Jays, both of whom USA Today’s Bob Nightengale reports offered Burnes a higher guarantee.

However, Burnes lives in Scottsdale, and playing close to home seems to have inspired the right-hander’s decision. According to Nick Piecoro of The Arizona Republic, Burnes was the one who approached the Diamondbacks “expressing a desire to pitch in Arizona.” John Gambadoro of 98.7FM Arizona Sports radio (multiple links to X) reports that the deal came together quickly, as talks between Burnes’ camp and the Snakes only started within the last three or four days. Diamondbacks chairman Ken Kendrick viewed signing Burnes as “too good of an opportunity to pass up,” as a source told Piecoro, and thus Kendrick okayed the biggest contract in franchise history.

Gambadoro writes that the contract contains “a significant amount of” deferred money, and a full no-trade clause covering just the 2025-26 seasons. If Burnes doesn’t opt out, Nightengale notes that Burnes’ no-trade protection is then limited to 14 teams over the final four seasons of the deal. Piecoro, meanwhile, goes into further detail regarding the deferred money. Per Piecoro, Burnes’s contract includes “a little north” of $60MM in deferred money, or between $10MM and $11MM per year deferred. Should Burnes decide to opt out following the 2026 campaign, the more than $20MM in deferred money accrued during the first two years of the deal would then need to be paid out within the following year.

Earlier this offseason, Blake Snell landed a $182MM guarantee from the Dodgers ahead of his age-32 season, and a look at MLBTR’s Contract Tracker reveals that Zack Greinke, Max Scherzer, and Jacob deGrom have all signed free agent contracts that guaranteed nine figures ahead of their age-32 campaigns or older. Burnes’ deal falls short of his previously-reported goal of matching the $245MM guarantee the Nationals offered to right-hander Stephen Strasburg during the 2019-20 offseason.

By total guarantee, Burnes’ contract lands close to the seven-year, $200MM prediction that MLBTR made at the start of the offseason as part of our annual Top 50 MLB Free Agents list, where Burnes ranked second in the class behind only Juan Soto. A closer look at the deal reveals that Burnes followed in the footsteps of virtually every other pitcher this winter, however, and landed a deal that exceeds expectations. The $35MM average annual value of the deal dwarfs the $28.57MM AAV predicted by MLBTR and even matches Strasburg, while the opt-out opportunity provides its own value in the form of flexibility.

For the Diamondbacks, it’s a massive financial outlay that beats out Greinke’s aforementioned six-year, $206.5MM deal for the largest guarantee in franchise history. Setting a club record for total guarantee in free agency would be noteworthy for any club, but it’s especially surprising coming from an Arizona team that previously indicated that they planned to run a payroll for 2025 that more or less matched their 2024 figure. As noted by RosterResource, Arizona spent just $173MM on payroll in 2024 and after signing Burnes are projected for a $194MM payroll in 2025. That hike of more than $20MM brings payroll to a completely unprecedented level for the franchise after setting a record for payroll just last year. It’s hardly a secret that the club is trying to move on from left-hander Jordan Montgomery on the trade market this winter, but even if the club manages to shed the majority of his salary they’ll have still put themselves into uncharted territory financially by signing Burnes.

That’s not to say the risk is a poor one to take, of course. Burnes established himself as among the league’s very best starters with Milwaukee during the shortened 2020 campaign, where he broke out to finish sixth in NL Cy Young award voting. He followed that performance up by going out and winning the award the following year, and the four-time All-Star has been on the shortlist for the game’s top rotation arms ever since. Over the past five seasons, Burnes ranks fifth among qualified MLB starters in innings pitched, second in fWAR, fourth in ERA, sixth in FIP, and third in strikeouts. Of course, much of that is due to a dominant 2021 season that saw Burnes lead the sport in ERA (2.43), FIP (1.69), and strikeout rate (35.6%).

Some red flags have emerged in the right-hander’s profile since then, as he’s started to go deeper into games at the expense of rate-basis dominance. His fastball velocity isn’t quite at the level it was during his Cy Young-winning campaign, and his strikeout rate has declined in each of the past five seasons until it ultimately fell to a roughly league average 23.1% this year. On the other hand, that relatively pedestrian figure started to tick back up towards the end of the season, when he struck out 27.7% of opponents faced in September. While he’s not quite matched the dominance of his otherworldly 2021 campaign in the years since, his 3.08 ERA and 3.49 FIP in 590 innings over the last three seasons ultimately still cast him as a starter who is clearly capable of fronting a playoff-caliber rotation.

He’ll be tasked with doing exactly that in Arizona this year, as the Diamondbacks appear to be all-in after narrowly missing the playoffs in 2024 despite winning more games than the 84-win 2023 club that managed to secure the NL pennant. Burnes will pair nicely with longtime club ace Zac Gallen at the front of the rotation, with veterans Merrill Kelly and Eduardo Rodríguez bringing up the middle. Brandon Pfaadt and Ryne Nelson represent intriguing options at the back of the club’s rotation, as will Montgomery if he’s not traded before the start of the season. Overall, the club’s rotation mix is among the most robust in the league at the moment on paper and should help to support an offense that lost both Joc Pederson and Christian Walker to free agency this winter. The front office swung a trade to land first baseman Josh Naylor in hopes of helping to plug that hole, but the club nonetheless seems likely to lean heavily on its internal youngsters like Corbin Carroll, Geraldo Perdomo, and top prospect Jordan Lawlar at the plate in 2025.

It’s unclear what’s in store for the Diamondbacks going forward this winter given their unprecedented current payroll commitments. The club has long been known to be pining after help at the back of its bullpen this winter, with a trade for Ryan Helsley or signing Kirby Yates among the potential options the club has reportedly considered. Another hitter would also make sense for the club after losing both Walker and Pederson to free agency, preferably a right-handed bat to complement a heavily left-handed lineup. With that being said, it’s entirely possible that the club won’t have room to make additional moves of significance without first shedding salary in the form of Montgomery or another potential trade candidate.

Because Burnes turned down the Orioles’ qualifying offer, Baltimore will receive a compensatory pick after the first round of the 2025 draft. Gaining what currently stands as the 30th overall selection isn’t a bad consolation prize for the Orioles, but since they had designs on retaining Burnes themselves, the O’s are still on the lookout to add more frontline pitching to their rotation.

Jon Heyman of the New York Post first reported the D-Backs were signing Burnes to a six-year, $210MM deal with an opt-out after year two. USA Today’s Bob Nightengale reported the signing bonus and the salaries for the first two seasons.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images

Rangers Designate Grant Anderson For Assignment

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The Rangers announced they’ve designated reliever Grant Anderson for assignment. The move opens the necessary 40-man roster spot for Joc Pederson, who has officially signed his $37MM free agent deal.

Anderson has been on the roster since May 2023. The low-slot righty has made 49 big league appearances as an up-and-down reliever. His major league work hasn’t been great, as he has allowed 6.35 earned runs per nine over 62 1/3 innings. Anderson’s respective strikeout (21.5%) and walk (8.8%) rates aren’t far off league average. He has had massive home run issues, though, giving up 16 longballs (2.31 per nine innings) in his major league career.

That hasn’t been as big a problem in the minors. Anderson didn’t allow a single homer over 27 2/3 Triple-A innings this year. He fanned 28.3% of minor league opponents and turned in a sub-3.00 ERA in the Pacific Coast League. Anderson has a 3.87 mark over parts of three seasons for the organization’s top affiliate in Round Rock.

After the New Year, the Rangers will have a week to trade Anderson or attempt to run him through waivers. The 27-year-old has just over one year of major league service. He has one option remaining, so another team could keep him in Triple-A next season if they’re willing to carry him on the 40-man roster.

Rangers Sign Joc Pederson

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The Rangers have officially announced the signing of designated hitter Joc Pederson to a two-year deal with a mutual option for 2027. Pederson, a client of Excel Sports Management, can opt out of the contract after next season. He’s reportedly guaranteed $37MM.

Pederson, 32, has now signed his fifth consecutive contract that allows him to re-enter free agency after just one year. The slugger first reached free agency during the 2020-21 offseason and signed a one-year deal with the Cubs. He followed that up with a one-year deal with the Giants before accepting the Qualifying Offer from the club the following offseason, and most recently signed yet another one-year pact with the Diamondbacks last winter. His newest deal offers a bit more security, however, given that it comes with a player option for a second season.

The constant trips through free agency haven’t stopped Pederson from being one of the most productive lefty bats in the majors in recent years. Since making his second career All-Star appearance in 2022 as a member of the Giants, Pederson has slashed a fantastic .262/.365/.485 with a 135 wRC+. That figure leaves him with the 16th-highest wRC+ in baseball among qualified hitters over the past three seasons, and he’s sandwiched comfortably between Vladimir Guerrero Jr. and Jose Ramirez on that leaderboard.

Given that he’s provided superstar-caliber offense on the cheap to multiple teams in recent years, it may seem somewhat surprising for Pederson to wind up with yet another relatively short-term deal that guarantees him less than $20MM per year. That discrepancy is primarily due to Pederson’s extremely limited profile. While he’s a phenomenal hitter who rakes against right-handed pitching, his profile features a massive platoon split and he’s typically been at his best throughout his career when he sits against same-handed pitching as much as possible. He’s a career .210/.300/.330 (78 wRC+) hitter against left-handed pitching and even in the past three seasons has floated a pedestrian 104 wRC+ against southpaws.

Perhaps that on its own wouldn’t be enough to stop Pederson from getting a hefty contract in free agency, but he’s also a poor defender in the outfield who didn’t put on a glove a single time during his year in Arizona after starting just 23 games in the outfield in San Francisco the prior year. His last season as a regular on defense in 2022 saw Pederson struggle to a -11 Outs Above Average figure that landed him near the bottom of the league’s leaderboards. Even with prodigious hitting talent, Pederson’s earning power has been consistently limited on the open market due to relatively minimal upside available in signing a platoon bat who’s increasingly restricted to DH-only duties. With that context, Pederson actually did quite well in landing the deal he got from the Rangers; his $37MM guarantee significantly outpaces the two-year, $24MM pact MLBTR predicted he would land when placing him as the #24 free agent on our Top 50 MLB Free Agents list at the outset of the winter.

For the Rangers, the addition of Pederson offers some much-needed thump to a lineup that finished just 22nd in the majors with a 95 wRC+ last year. That includes utterly abysmal production at DH, where Texas managed just a 65 wRC+ that was second-worst in baseball ahead of only the Reds. The addition of Pederson not only adds another big lefty bat to the Rangers lineup to complement his former Dodgers teammate Corey Seager but also makes up for the loss of Nathaniel Lowe, who the club traded to the Nationals just last night. The additions of Pederson, Kyle Higashioka, and Jake Burger to the club’s lineup in conjunction with better health from youngsters Josh Jung and Evan Carter should give the Rangers a much stronger offense up and down the batting order while allowing the club to lean less heavily on utility man Josh Smith, who was one of the team’s top offensive contributors in the first half but faded to hit just .215/.265/.300 after the All-Star break.

With Pederson now in the fold, RosterResource projects the Rangers for a payroll of just under $217MM for 2025, and that figure jumps up to just over $229MM for luxury tax purposes. That leaves around $11MM left for the club to work with before the first luxury tax threshold, which it was reported earlier this winter that the club hopes to duck under next year. While the rotation was addressed by bringing back Nathan Eovaldi and the lineup appears to be in good shape at the moment, the club still appears to be a piece or two short in the bullpen even after adding Hoby Milner, Jacob Webb, and Robert Garcia. It’s possible the Rangers could look to follow the example they laid out in the deal that sent Lowe to D.C. in exchange for Garcia and deal a potential trade candidate like Leody Taveras, Dane Dunning, or Jon Gray in a deal that bolsters their relief corps while also freeing up payroll space that could help them land a proven closer such as Kirby Yates or David Robertson, both of whom pitched well for the Rangers in 2024 but elected free agency last month.

Now that Pederson is headed to Texas, a handful of other suitors will need to look elsewhere. The incumbent Diamondbacks reportedly had interest in a reunion with Pederson earlier this month, though it’s possible that the club’s recent trade for Josh Naylor eliminated that need and leaves them in position instead to look for some right-handed thump to replace outgoing first baseman Christian Walker. Meanwhile, the Blue Jays were connected to both Pederson and Naylor in the rumor mill and at this point could be further motivated to land a notable bat such as Anthony Santander or Teoscar Hernandez now that many of the club’s lower-level targets have come off the board.

Evan Grant of the Dallas Morning News was first to report the Rangers and Pederson were discussing a contract. The Athletic’s Ken Rosenthal was first with the agreement. ESPN’s Buster Olney reported the two-year, $37MM guarantee and the opt-out.

Cubs Among Teams Interested In Josh Rojas

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According to Mark Feinsand of MLB.com, free agent Josh Rojas is drawing interest from multiple teams. The Cubs are one such club, and Feinsand characterizes their attraction to the veteran utility man as “serious.”

Rojas, who turns 31 next June, was somewhat surprisingly non-tendered by the Mariners earlier this offseason. His bat was middling at best in 2024, but he did steal 10 bases and draw walks at a well-above-average clip. More importantly, he graded out as a strong infield defender according to several metrics, including Defensive Runs Saved (DRS) and Outs Above Average (OAA). As a result, he finished with 1.9 Wins Above Replacement (WAR) according to FanGraphs and 2.1 WAR according to Baseball Reference. If he could simply repeat that performance in 2025, he would have been well worth his projected $4.3MM salary. Yet, the Mariners decided to move on.

Although Rojas played the vast majority of his games at the hot corner in 2024, he is also a capable defensive second baseman. On top of that, he can cover most other positions in a pinch. He has played shortstop, both outfield corners, and (briefly) first base at times throughout his six-year MLB career.

The Cubs are stocked with Gold Glove winners at second base, shortstop, and both outfield corners. However, they don’t currently have anyone locked in at third base. Top prospect Matt Shaw seems like the most logical choice to replace Isaac Paredes on the far left side of the infield, but Shaw has no big league experience and only 35 games at Triple-A under his belt. To that point, Cubs president of baseball operations Jed Hoyer recently said Shaw will have a chance to earn the third base job, but it’s not his just yet. Recent trade acquisition Vidal Bruján can also play third base, but given his complete lack of MLB success over the past four years, Bruján should be nothing more than a utility player for the bench. Finally, Rule 5 pick Gage Workman is a terrific defender at third base, but like Shaw, he has no major league experience – and unlike Shaw, there are serious questions about how his bat will hold up against MLB pitching.

With all that in mind, Rojas seems like a perfect fit for the Cubs. He could take over as Chicago’s starting third baseman to begin the season, batting at the bottom of the lineup and supplementing what is already one of the best defensive alignments in the league. However, he wouldn’t block Shaw if the youngster proves himself ready for everyday playing time at the big league level. Instead, he would slide into the utility job on the bench, offering a significant upgrade over Bruján.

Financially speaking, the Cubs should have no trouble paying whatever price Rojas is seeking. Presumably, he’ll end up signing a one-year contract with a seven-figure guarantee. After offloading most of Cody Bellinger’s salary earlier this month, Chicago is approximately $50MM below the first luxury tax threshold and $54MM below last year’s final payroll (per RosterResource). If the Cubs don’t land Rojas, other free agents who could address the same need at a similar price point include Jose Iglesias and Paul DeJong.

Cubs To Sign Ben Heller To Minors Contract

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The Cubs are signing Ben Heller to a minor league contract, reports Andrew Destin of the Pittsburgh Post-Gazette. The right-hander is represented by Onyx Sports Management.

Heller, 33, was a 22nd-round draft pick in 2013, signing with Cleveland for a mere $2,500 bonus. However, he quickly began turning heads with his high-velocity fastball. From 2013-16, he moved up the ranks of Cleveland’s farm system from Low-A to Triple-A, pitching to a 2.77 ERA and 2.58 FIP. In 172 1/3 innings, he gave up just six home runs while striking out more than 30% of the batters he faced. All the more impressive, those numbers aren’t inflated by a dominant performance at the lower levels. He pitched to a 0.81 ERA and 1.59 FIP in 22 1/3 innings at Double-A Akron and a 2.49 ERA and 3.01 FIP in 25 1/3 innings at Triple-A Columbus.

Due to his age (he was approaching 25 by the time he was promoted to Triple-A) and the fact that he was always a reliever, Heller rarely earned much attention from prospect evaluators. However, he started to generate some buzz when he was included in the package Cleveland sent to the Yankees to acquire Andrew Miller at the 2016 trade deadline. Heller made his MLB debut for New York later that year. Unfortunately, his results were poor for just about the first time in his pro career. Over 10 appearances, he gave up five runs on 11 hits in seven innings, striking out six, walking four, and hitting two batters.

Despite his poor debut with the big league squad, Heller continued to thrive at Triple-A in his new organization. He put up a 2.73 ERA and 2.97 FIP in 62 2/3 innings for the Scranton/Wilkes-Barre RailRiders from 2016-17. Even better, he looked more effective in a handful of appearances in the majors in 2017, tossing 11 frames and giving up just one run.

Sadly, Heller lost almost all of his 2018 and ’19 seasons to Tommy John surgery. Since then, he has struggled to find consistent success. He made just six appearances in 2020, and the Yankees released him the following offseason. The Diamondbacks signed him to a minor league contract not long after, but a stress fracture in his elbow kept him out for the entire 2021 campaign.

Since then, he has bounced between the Twins, Rays, Braves, and Pirates organizations. He has a 6.75 ERA in 30 2/3 MLB innings for Atlanta and Pittsburgh and a 3.78 ERA in 78 2/3 innings at Triple-A. He has continued to generate high strikeout rates in the minors, but control issues have plagued him in the big leagues. Of the 148 MLB batters he’s faced over the past two years, 16.9% have reached on either a walk or a hit-by-pitch. What’s more, arm injuries were a problem again in 2024; Heller landed on the IL at the end of August with right shoulder inflammation and did not return.

At the end of the day, Heller is a no-risk, high-reward signing for the Cubs. His four-seam fastball averaged 96.3 mph in 2024 and topped out at 98 mph, while his sinker averaged 95.3 mph and topped out at 97 mph. He also throws a changeup, a cutter, a slider, and a sweeper. That’s an unusually deep arsenal for a reliever, which gives the Cubs plenty to work with if they want to adjust his pitch mix. Presumably, Heller will compete for a spot in Chicago’s bullpen during spring training.

Wade Miley Plans To Pitch In 2025, Would Prefer To Re-Sign With Brewers

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When Wade Miley went under the knife for Tommy John surgery this past April, he wasn’t sure if he’d ever return to a major league mound. He told Adam McCalvy of MLB.com that he’d wait to get through some of his rehab before deciding whether or not to retire, though he added that he’d prefer to go out on his own terms rather than due to an injury, saying “I still feel like I’ve got more in the tank.”

Today, Curt Hogg of the Milwaukee Journal Sentinel offered an update on Miley’s rehab and future plans. Long story short, the veteran southpaw is doing everything in his power to get back on the field. Not only does he plan to pitch in 2025, he wants to pitch as soon as possible. It’s been less than eight months since he underwent TJS this past May, but he hopes to be pitching in games by the end of spring training and ready to pitch in the majors as soon as late April/early May. The general recovery timeline for pitchers who undergo TJS is 12 to 18 months, and Miley isn’t your typical patient – he was 37 when he had his surgery and turned 38 in August. Yet, he’s optimistic he can get back to the highest level of competition barely a year after he hit the shelf.

Interestingly, Miley suggests his advanced age could actually help him make a speedy return. While a younger pitcher might prefer to exercise the utmost caution with the future of his career in mind, Miley is only thinking in the short term. His priority isn’t to prolong his pitching career for as long as possible, it’s to get back to action as soon as he can. “I’m not dragging [out] this thing for 14 to 16 months,” he explained. “…If it doesn’t work out, it doesn’t work out. And that’s on me.”

The 2024 season was a lost year for Miley, who threw just seven innings over two outings. The year prior, he made 23 starts for the Brewers. He pitched to a 3.14 ERA, 4.33 xERA, and 5.04 SIERA over 120 1/3 innings between two stints on the IL with back and elbow issues. He put up slightly better numbers with the Cubs the year before that, although more injuries limited him to just 37 innings. His last qualified season came with the Reds in 2021. He tossed 163 frames in 28 starts with a 3.37 ERA, 4.09 xERA, and 4.52 SIERA.

All that to say, Miley can still be a productive pitcher when healthy, even though health has been hard for him to come by. Perhaps that’s enough to earn the veteran a one-year, major league deal. If not, it should make him the ideal candidate for an incentive-based minor league contract. The big question, however, is if he’ll be able to find a club that’s willing to let him attempt such a quick return from TJS. Most teams might prefer that he take a slower and steadier approach to his rehab, both to keep him healthy and to keep him on the 60-day IL until they need him for depth later in the year.

As badly as he wants to pitch in 2025, Miley clarified that he wouldn’t sign just anywhere. For one thing, he isn’t interested in joining a team that would stash him on the IL for the first several months of the season. Furthermore, geography seems to be important to him, likely because he doesn’t want to relocate his family across the country. To that end, he expressed a preference to sign with a Central division team; he’s been in the NL Central since he signed with the Reds ahead of the 2020 campaign. In particular, Miley heavily implied that the Brewers remain his team of choice. “I would sign back in the Central, preferably wearing blue,” he said. “Dark blue.”

Hogg notes that the interest is mutual, and the Brewers have spoken with Miley this winter about a new contract. While the two sides haven’t made much progress yet, that doesn’t mean a deal won’t come together. Miley’s representatives are trying to find him a guaranteed big league deal, while the Brewers are not yet willing to offer anything more than a minor league contract. Ultimately, however, Miley told Hogg that he’d be happy to sign a non-guaranteed contract with financial incentives. He’s not doing his agents any favors by saying that out loud, but it seems like Miley isn’t too concerned about the money.

As for the Brewers, they rarely spend significant money on free agent pitchers. Combine that fact with Miley’s injury history, and it’s not hard to see why they’d be hesitant to offer him a big league deal. What’s more, Milwaukee already has a full rotation including Freddy Peralta, Brandon Woodruff, Nestor Cortes, Tobias Myers, and Aaron Civale, as well as DL Hall and Aaron Ashby. However, this team knows better than anyone that there’s no such thing as too much starting pitching depth – their rotation was plagued by injuries throughout the 2024 season – and they clearly like what Miley brings to the table. They’ve already acquired him three times before, and for what it’s worth, they won their division in all three years (2018, ’23, ’24). Thus, it’s not hard to picture these two sides coming together on a new deal for 2025.

With all that said, it’s still no guarantee Miley is pitching for the Brewers, or anyone, in 2025. He implied to Hogg that he’d rather retire than sign with a team that isn’t the right fit. He also made it clear that he doesn’t want to pitch in the majors if he isn’t going to be productive. “I don’t want to be a burden on anyone and make three starts and be done,” he said.

To that point, Miley mentions that bone spurs in the back of his elbow have been a problem so far in his rehab. If the bone spurs continue to cause trouble and prevent him from pitching this spring, it’s certainly possible he’ll decide to hang up his hat. After all, he told Hogg that he’s already accomplished everything “he ever dreamed of” in Major League Baseball over the course of his 14-year career.

CPBL’s Fubon Guardians Sign Roenis Elías

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Left-handed pitcher Roenis Elías has reportedly signed a contract for the 2025 season with the Fubon Guardians of the CPBL in Taiwan. TSNA (h/t to CPBL Stats) was the first to report the news (Chinese language link), which Francys Romero later confirmed. The southpaw will earn a guaranteed $500K USD salary.

Elías, 36, spent time with the Mariners, Red Sox, and Nationals throughout parts of seven MLB seasons. His best year was his rookie campaign with Seattle in 2014, when he pitched 163 2/3 innings over 29 starts with a 3.85 ERA and 3.96 SIERA. Unfortunately, he struggled to ever replicate that success. From 2015-22, he pitched 232 big league innings over 104 games (25 starts), putting up a 4.03 ERA and 4.49 SIERA.

Although he signed a minor league deal with the Cubs ahead of the 2023 season, Elías made only four starts for Triple-A Iowa before the organization released him to pursue a career overseas. He inked a $540K contract with the KBO’s SSG Landers in May and pitched to a 3.70 ERA in 131 1/3 innings over the rest of the year. That ERA was well below the 4.14 league average, as was his 6.0% walk rate. Those numbers were enough to earn him another season (and a raise) from the Landers, who re-signed him to a one-year, $1MM deal for the 2024 campaign.

Unfortunately, the 2024 season wasn’t quite as kind to Elías. He missed time with an oblique injury and finished with a 4.08 ERA in 123 2/3 innings. However, it’s worth pointing out that his ERA was actually better compared to the league average in 2024 than it was in 2023. He also increased his strikeout rate from 17.0% to 19.8% while slightly reducing his walk rate. Nevertheless, it seems as if the Landers opted not to bring him back for a third year with the club. Instead, Elías will take a pay cut and try to establish himself in a new foreign league.

The Opener: Luzardo, Buehler, Pending Contracts

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The Opener is back after a brief hiatus. Here are three things to watch for around baseball today:

1. Jesús Luzardo media availability:

Jesús Luzardo will speak with media members today for the first time since the Phillies acquired him in a trade with the Marlins. The left-hander was excellent in 2023 but struggled in 2024 before suffering a season-ending lumbar injury. He also spent a couple of weeks on the IL in April and May with tightness in his throwing elbow. However, the 27-year-old told reporters (including Christina De Nicola of MLB.com) earlier this winter that he has been able to perform his “normal offseason progression,” suggesting his elbow and back are “feeling really good.” Presumably, Luzardo will further discuss his health and offseason program with reporters from the Phillies beat this afternoon.

2. Craig Breslow to discuss Walker Buehler signing:

After coming to terms with free agent right-hander Walker Buehler last week, the Red Sox officially announced his one-year, $21.05MM contract over the weekend. Today, chief baseball officer Craig Breslow will meet with reporters to take questions about Buehler (per Chris Cotillo of MassLive). Cotillo adds that there are currently no plans for the pitcher himself to hold an in-person press event.

Breslow is likely to address how Buehler will slot into a starting rotation that also includes Garrett Crochet, Tanner Houck, Lucas Giolito, Brayan Bello, Kutter Crawford, and potentially/eventually Garrett Whitlock, Patrick Sandoval, and Quinn Priester. In addition, expect Breslow to answer questions about what comes next. He has made several moves to bolster Boston’s pitching staff this winter but next to nothing to upgrade the offense.

3. Free agent contracts yet to be finalized:

A handful of reported free agent deals from December have yet to be officially announced. Those include Paul Goldschmidt’s one-year, $12.5MM deal with the Yankees; Joc Pederson’s two-year, $37MM deal with the Rangers; Teoscar Hernández’s three-year, $66MM deal with the Dodgers; and Corbin Burnes’s six-year, $210MM deal with the Diamondbacks. While the Hernández and Burnes deals were reported relatively recently (Dec. 27 and Dec. 28, respectively), it’s been more than a week since Goldschmidt (Dec. 21) and Pederson (Dec. 23) agreed to terms with their new clubs. Barring any surprising developments, both deals will most likely be finalized imminently.

Angels, Tigers Interested In Anthony Santander

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Anthony Santander has been linked to multiple teams this winter, and Evan Petzold of the Detroit Free Press adds two new names to that list in the Angels and Tigers.  Interestingly, Petzold describes the Angels and Blue Jays “as the frontrunners” to sign Santander, while the Tigers view the switch-hitting outfielder as something of a backup plan if they can’t sign Alex Bregman.

With Juan Soto and now Teoscar Hernandez off the market, Santander stands out as the top free agent option remaining for teams in need of outfield help.  He was reportedly looking for a five-year contract even before Hernandez re-signed with the Dodgers, and with the Yankees and Red Sox joining the Blue Jays, Angels, and Tigers as known suitors, there might enough interest for Santander to land that longer commitment even though he’s entering his age-30 season.

Santander has hit .245/.312/.476 with 134 home runs in 2571 plate appearances since Opening Day 2020, translating to a 119 wRC+.  Santander saved his most overall productive season (3.3 fWAR) for his walk year, as he hit a career-best 44 homers along with a .235/.308/.506 slash line in 665 PA for the Orioles.  He had relatively even splits from both sides of the plate, and posted above-average numbers in terms of barrel, hard-hit ball, strikeout, and walk rates.  This production earned Santander his first All-Star and Silver Slugger nods, and he even received a bit of down-ballot support in AL MVP voting.

There also some clear minuses, as Santander isn’t much of a defender or baserunner, and his offense is largely tied to his power production.  That doesn’t necessarily bode well for hitting in such homer-suppressing ballparks as Angel Stadium or Comerica Park, which creates a Catch-22 for the Angels and Tigers as they seek out some much-needed pop for their lineups.

The Angels’ emergence as a possible favorite for Santander isn’t necessarily a surprise, given how the Halos have been aggressively scouring the market for hitting help.  Los Angeles has already brought Jorge Soler to town in a trade with the Braves, and added the likes of Travis d’Arnaud, Scott Kingery, and Kevin Newman to the bench mix.  On the pitching end, Yusei Kikuchi and Kyle Hendricks were signed to free agent deals.

Santander would require a bigger commitment than any of this group.  MLB Trade Rumors ranked Santander ninth on our list of the offseason’s top 50 free agents, and projected him for a four-year, $80MM pact.  RosterResource estimates the Angels’ 2025 payroll to sit at just under the $190MM mark, so a $20MM average annual value for Santander would still bring the Halos under their $214.7MM payroll for the 2023 season.  This would fit with owner Arte Moreno’s claim from October that the Angels would be increasing spending this winter, if not in excess of their 2023 expenditures.

If Santander was signed to presumably take on his usual right field role, he’d join Mike Trout and Taylor Ward as the starting outfielders, with Jo Adell and Mickey Moniak moving to backup duty.  There has been some reports that the Angels are exploring trading from this outfield group, which could perhaps subtract Adell or Moniak, or left field could be opened up if Ward was dealt.  Trout could conceivably be shifted to left field as a way to reduce the wear-and-tear on his body as the Halos attempt to keep their star healthy.  Since the Angels’ starting lineup is mostly full of right-handed hitters, Santander’s switch-hitting ability adds some balance.

Amusingly, Santander would also balance out a Tigers lineup that leans in the opposite direction.  Detroit’s abundance of left-handed hitting has made the addition of at least one big righty bat a clear priority this winter.  As Petzold observed, the signing of Gleyber Torres didn’t really address the lineup imbalance, as Torres will essentially replace another righty hitter in Spencer Torkelson (as Colt Keith will move to first base to accommodate Torres at second base).

In Detroit, Santander’s move into right field would shift Kerry Carpenter into DH duty against right-handed pitchers, with Torkelson or Matt Vierling then likely acting as the right-handed side of that DH platoon.  Vierling might also serve as the regular third baseman in this scenario where the Tigers signed Santander and not Bregman, depending on how third base prospect Jace Jung adjusts to big league pitching in his first full MLB season.

The Tigers’ payroll situation is pretty clear over the long term, and signing a big bat like Santander to a long-term deal would be the type of win-now move many expected from Detroit after the team reached the ALDS last season.  Conceivably, the team could sign both Bregman and Santander, yet it seems more likely that they’d just aim for one of the two players.  Bregman’s expected contract is more than double what Santander is projected to receive, yet the Tigers may be more willing to pay his steeper price tag.  While a gap remains between Detroit’s preferred offer and Bregman’s reported goal of a $200MM deal, Petzold writes that “the Tigers appear to be all-in on Bregman.”

Because the Tigers are a revenue-sharing recipient, they would pay a lesser penalty to sign a player like Santander who rejected the qualifying offer — Detroit would have to give up its third-highest pick in the 2025 draft.  Since the Angels aren’t a revenue-sharing team and they didn’t cross the luxury tax line last season, they’d have to give up their second-highest pick in the 2025 draft as well as $500K in international bonus pool money.

The Blue Jays would pay the same penalty as the Angels, and Toronto might well have even more incentive than either the Halos or Tigers to splurge for a proven bat like Santander.  The Jays have thus far come up short on all of their major free agent pursuits this offseason, and are sorely in need of offensive help for what might be Vladimir Guerrero Jr. and Bo Bichette’s last season in Toronto.

Nationals Sign Josh Bell

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Josh Bell is heading back to Washington, as the New York Post’s Jon Heyman reports that the first baseman has signed a one-year, $6MM deal with the Nationals.  The 32-year-old Bell is represented by the Boras Corporation.

Since Nathaniel Lowe was just acquired last week to be the Nats’ new everyday first baseman, Bell likely now slots in as the first-choice designated hitter.  Both the left-handed hitting Lowe and the switch-hitting Bell have pretty even career splits, but Bell could step in at first base every once in a while when Washington faces a left-handed pitcher, even though Lowe is a much better fielder.  As the DH, Bell’s switch-hitting bat also brings a bit more balance to a Nationals lineup that is heavy on lefty swingers.

In a career defined by major hot and cold streaks, Bell’s previous stint in D.C. stands out as perhaps the most consistent stretch of his nine MLB seasons.  The Nationals acquired Bell from the Pirates during the 2020-21 offseason, and Bell proceeded to hit .278/.363/.483 with 41 homers over 1005 plate appearances from Opening Day 2021 until he was dealt to the Padres as part of the Juan Soto blockbuster at the 2022 trade deadline.

Unfortunately for Bell and the Padres, his bat went cold after the deal, though his overall offensive output was enough for him to earn NL Silver Slugger honors for the DH position.  It also led to a two-year, $33MM contract with the Guardians that winter, but Bell didn’t hit particularly well in his first four months in Cleveland before he was again dealt at the deadline, which sparked another hot streak as he helped lead the Marlins to a playoff berth.

The pattern continued at last July’s deadline, as Bell again found himself on the move from the Marlins to the Diamondbacks.  Bell had hit only .239/.305/.394 in 441 PA for Miami last year, but his bat again came to life post-trade, as he hit .279/.361/.436 in 162 PA for an Arizona team that had temporarily lost starting first baseman Christian Walker to the injured list.

The short-term nature of this latest contract leaves open the possibility that Bell could be dealt at his fourth consecutive trade deadline if the Nationals aren’t in contention.  While Lowe is under arbitration control through the 2026 season, Bell and fellow free agent Michael Soroka were both inked to one-year deals, as the Nationals seem to be somewhat hedging their bets on their readiness to compete in 2025.  The Nats have struggled through five straight losing seasons since their World Series victory in 2019, yet with many members of their young core now in the big leagues, there was speculation Washington might be a little more aggressive this winter in firmly announcing the end of its rebuild.

This being said, Bell’s signing is certainly a boost for a Nationals club that had trouble producing offense last year, particularly in the power department.  The Nats’ 135 home runs ranked 29th of 30 teams, and CJ Abrams (with 20 homers) was the only D.C. player who went yard more often than Bell (19 homers) did in 2024.

With Bell and Lowe in the fold, expected improvement from Abrams and Luis Garcia Jr., and a full season from top prospects James Wood and Dylan Crews, there is plenty of reason to think the Nats can be a much more productive lineup.  If everything clicks and the team’s young pitching also takes a step forward, the Nationals might well get back to winning baseball next year, and then perhaps start spending on bigger-name talent next offseason.

Bell’s career walk and strikeout rates have consistently been above average, while his barrel rates have been more spotty.  His hard-hit ball rate dropped to 40.1% last season, slightly below the league average and his lowest mark since the 2018 season.  While there isn’t much sign of decline at age 32, per se, the big question about Bell is simply which version of the slugger is going to show up, given how his production has swung back and forth so sharply over the last few seasons.

Now that Bell is signed, third base remains a target area for Washington, as the team’s attempt to get Gleyber Torres to change positions from second base fell on deaf ears.  The bullpen remains a clear area of need, and there’s still plenty of time in the offseason for the Nationals to add a bigger name than Soroka as more of a clear-cut upgrade to the rotation.

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