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Andrew Chafin

Nationals Sign Andrew Chafin To Major League Deal

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6:15pm: Chafin’s contract with the Nationals guarantees him $1MM, according to Spencer Nusbaum of the Washington Post.

5:45pm: The Nationals announced that they have signed left-hander Andrew Chafin to a one-year major league deal. Fellow lefty Colin Poche has been designated for assignment as the corresponding move. Chafin was with the Tigers on a minor league deal but had an opt-out in that pact. Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic reported that Chafin was signing with the Nats prior to the official announcement.

Chafin, 35 next month, is a veteran with over a decade of solid relief work. He has logged 508 1/3 innings for various clubs, allowing 3.42 earned runs per nine. He has struck out 25.9% of batters faced, given out walks at a 10% clip and kept the ball on the ground at a 48.1% pace. He had a strong performance in 2024, with a 3.51 ERA between the Tigers and Rangers. His 12.6% walk rate was quite high but he also bumped his strikeout rate up to 28.5%.

Despite those good numbers, he lingered unsigned through the winter and somewhat surprisingly had to settle for a minor league deal with Detroit in late February. It still seemed like the Tigers would add him to the roster at the end of camp but that didn’t come to pass.

Chafin was an Article XX(b) free agent this winter, which is any player with at least six years of major league service who finished the previous season on a major league roster or injured list. Such players get uniform opt-out dates on minor league deals, provided they sign more than ten days prior to Opening Day. The opt-outs are five days prior to Opening Day, May 1st and June 1st.

Though he didn’t break camp with the club, Chafin decided to report to Triple-A Toledo. He put up great numbers for that club, tossing 12 2/3 innings with a 2.13 ERA, 31.5% strikeout rate, 7.4% walk rate and 51.6% ground ball rate. That’s obviously a small sample of work but, as mentioned, Chafin also has a lengthy résumé of big league success.

Despite that strong performance, the Tigers never called him up. They are seemingly content with their lefty relievers Tyler Holton, Brant Hurter and Sean Guenther. Chafin apparently triggered his opt-out and landed with a club that has a greater need for his services. The Nationals have used Poche and Jose A. Ferrer as their southpaw relievers this year, with disastrous results so far. Poche has an 11.42 ERA through 8 2/3 innings, with Ferrer at 7.36 through 14 2/3.

The Nats aren’t really expected to contend this year, currently sporting a record of 13-18. Regardless, Chafin can give them a veteran lefty presence in the bullpen for now. If he performs well for the next few months, they will be able to trade him for a prospect or two at the deadline.

Poche should end up on waivers in the coming days. As mentioned, he has had a rough start to the season. He has walked 12 batters faced already, an awful rate of 26.1%. Given those struggles, he’s likely to clear. He had to settle for a minor league deal in the offseason and obviously hasn’t improved his stock since cracking Washington’s Opening Day roster.

He will likely be able to find a minor league deal somewhere based on his previous track record. With the Rays from 2022 to 2024, he tossed 156 2/3 innings with a 3.27 ERA, 24.5% strikeout rate and 9.2% walk rate.

Photo courtesy of Steven Bisig, Imagn Images

Tigers Send Jason Foley, Andrew Chafin To Minors

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The Tigers are making some surprising roster cuts ahead of the start of the season. Per Evan Petzold of the Detroit Free Press, the club is sending both right-hander Jason Foley and left-hander Andrew Chafin to Triple-A Toledo. Foley is on the 40-man roster and will be optioned. Chafin is a veteran on a minor league deal with certain guaranteed opt-out dates but Petzold relays that the southpaw is expected to report to Toledo.

Foley, 29, was last optioned to the minors in April of 2022. He was recalled in May of that year and has been up with the club since then, seemingly establishing himself as a bonafide major leaguer. He’s never had huge strikeout numbers but has succeeded with good control and a grounder-heavy approach.

Overall, he has 199 2/3 innings in the bigs with a 3.16 earned run average, 18.1% strikeout rate, 6.2% walk rate and 54.1% ground ball rate. He has emerged as a key leverage arm for the club in recent years. In 2023, he secured 28 holds and seven saves. Last year, he largely took over the closer’s role, racking up 28 saves and eight holds. He qualified for arbitration and is making $3.15MM this year.

In this year’s camp, his 6.14 ERA certainly looks ugly, but it’s a tiny sample of 7 1/3 innings and the numbers under the hood aren’t nearly as bad. He struck out 10 opponents without issuing a walk, with one hit-by-pitch the only free pass of the spring. The five earned runs he allowed came over his first four appearances. The past four were scoreless. A .429 batting average on balls in play and 62.5% strand rate point to much of the damage against him being bad luck.

All in all, it’s a pretty surprising move. It seems as though Brenan Hanifee will get the final bullpen spot over Foley, per Petzold. Hanifee has a strong 2.36 ERA in his career but in just 34 1/3 innings. Similar to Foley, he’s a ground ball guy, with an 18.2% strikeout rate and 54.1% grounder rate thus far.

Ultimately, Opening Day is just one day on the calendar. Bullpen churn is pretty common in today’s game, so Foley could be back up in short order. Still, it’s notable when last year’s closer is sent to the minors without much obvious reason. If Foley spends significant time in the minors this year, it could impact his trajectory. He comes into 2025 with his service clock at three years and 33 days, putting him on track for free agency after 2027. If he spends enough time on optional assignment this season to come up short of the four-year mark, that trip to the open market would be pushed back by a year.

The news on Chafin is also surprising. He’s a pretty reliable veteran with over a decade in the big leagues. He has a 3.42 career ERA and posted a 3.51 ERA last year. Even settling for a minor league deal was a surprise, but at least that deal came with a strong $2.5MM base salary for cracking the majors.

Like Foley, Chafin’s spring numbers look bad at a glance but not so much under a magnifying glass. He posted an ERA of 12.00 by allowing eight earned runs in six innings. He also gave out six walks. However, six of those eight earned runs and five of the six walks were surrendered in his first two innings pitched. He only allowed two runs and one walk in his final four innings, with the final two innings being scoreless and walk-less with five strikeouts.

Given his reputation, it would be fair to write-off his poor spring stats as small-sample weirdness but the Tigers evidently don’t want to make room for him. He’ll report to Toledo and hope for a call-up but he’ll have chances to opt-out on May 1 and June 1.

In another notable move, Petzold reports that utility player Ryan Kreidler will make the Opening Day roster. Kreidler had previously been optioned to the minors but it was reported earlier this week that the club’s injuries might open a spot for him. The Tigers have been hit hard by the injury bug, particularly in center field, with Parker Meadows, Wenceel Pérez and Matt Vierling all slated to start the season on the injured list.

Kreidler has played more infield in his career but the club apparently considers him viable enough in center to bring him up for extra coverage there. It’s unclear who will get the bulk of the playing time in center, but it may be some combination of Kreidler, Riley Greene and Manuel Margot.

Photo courtesy of Junfu Han, Imagn Images

36 Veteran Players With Looming Opt-Out Dates

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The 2022-26 collective bargaining agreement implemented a new series of uniform opt-out dates for players who qualified as free agents under Article XX(b) of said agreement and sign a minor league deal in free agency. More specifically, that designation falls on players with six-plus years of MLB service time who finished the preceding season on a major league roster or injured list. Some contracts for players coming over from a foreign professional league like Nippon Professional Baseball or the Korea Baseball Organization will also have language written into their contracts allowing them to qualify as an XX(b) free agent despite a lack of six years of service.

The three uniform opt-out dates on those contracts land five days before Opening Day, on May 1 and on June 1. With the regular season set to kick off next week, any Article XX(b) free agents who are in camp on minor league contracts will have the opportunity to opt out on Saturday, March 22. A player triggering one of these out clauses gives his current club 48 hours to either add him to the 40-man roster or let him become a free agent.

There are other ways to secure opt-outs in contracts, of course. Many players who don’t qualify for XX(b) designation will still have opt-out opportunities negotiated into their minor league deals in free agency.

The following is a list of 36 players who are in camp as non-roster invitees and will be able to opt out this weekend. Most were XX(b) free agents, but there are a handful of names who didn’t meet that requirement but had outs negotiated into their respective deals nonetheless. This is not a comprehensive list of all players with opt-out opportunities this weekend.

All spring stats referenced are accurate through the completion of games played Wednesday, March 19.

Astros: LHP Jalen Beeks

Beeks, 31, was a relatively late sign (March 7) who’s since tossed three spring frames — including two scoreless innings just yesterday. He logged a 4.50 ERA in 70 innings between the Rockies and Pirates last season. He struggled to miss bats last year but typically runs strong strikeout rates. Dating back to 2020, Beeks carries a 4.16 ERA in 192 2/3 innings. In Josh Hader, Bryan King and Bennett Sousa, the Astros already have three lefty relievers on the 40-man. Another veteran non-roster invitee, Steven Okert, has rattled off 8 2/3 shutout spring innings with a 14-to-2 K/BB ratio. Beeks might have long odds of cracking the roster.

Blue Jays: RHP Jacob Barnes, LHP Ryan Yarbrough

The 34-year-old Barnes logged a 4.36 ERA in a career-high 66 big league innings last season. He posted an ERA north of 5.00 in each of the five preceding seasons (a total of 115 1/3 frames). He’s been tagged for four runs in 5 1/3 innings this spring.

Yarbrough, 33, had a terrific run with the Jays to close out the 2024 season. Joining Toronto in a deadline swap sending Kevin Kiermaier to the Dodgers, the veteran southpaw posted a 2.01 ERA in 31 1/3 innings. He’s a soft-tosser, sitting just 86.5 mph with his heater, but Yarbrough can pitch multiple innings in relief and has a decent track record even beyond last year’s overall 3.19 earned run average (4.21 ERA in 768 MLB innings). He’s allowed three runs with and 8-to-1 K/BB ratio in 6 2/3 innings in camp.

Braves: RHP Buck Farmer, RHP Hector Neris

Farmer was already reassigned to minor league camp on Sunday, so there’d seem to be a good chance of him taking his out. The 34-year-old turned in a terrific 3.04 ERA in 71 innings for the Reds last year but was probably hampered by his age, pedestrian velocity and subpar command in free agency. With a 3.68 ERA in 193 innings over the past three seasons in Cincinnati, he should find an opportunity somewhere — even if it’s not in Atlanta.

Neris is still in Braves camp. He signed well into camp and thus has only pitched one official inning so far, which was scoreless. (Neris is pitching today as well.) He’s looking to bounce back from a 4.10 ERA and a particularly poor performance in save opportunities last year. Prior to his nondescript 2024, Neris rattled off a 3.03 ERA in 208 innings from 2021-23 between Philly and Houston, saving 17 games and collecting 67 holds along the way.

Brewers: 1B/OF Mark Canha, OF Manuel Margot

He’s had a brutal spring, but the 36-year-old Canha has been an above-average hitter every year since 2018, by measure of wRC+. He’s just 2-for-23 in Brewers camp, but he’s slugged a homer and walked as often as he’s fanned (four times apiece). Milwaukee has Rhys Hoskins at first base, but Canha could chip in at DH and offer a right-handed complement to lefty outfielders Sal Frelick and Garrett Mitchell.

Margot hasn’t hit well in a tiny sample of 35 spring plate appearances, but he’s outproduced Canha with a .250/.314/.375 slash. He’s coming off a dismal .238/.289/.337 showing in Minnesota, however, and hasn’t been the plus defender he was prior to a major 2022 knee injury. Like Canha, he could complement Frelick and Mitchell as a righty-swinging outfielder, but Canha has been the far more productive bat in recent seasons.

Cubs: RHP Chris Flexen

The Cubs reassigned Flexen to minor league camp after just 3 2/3 innings this spring. He was hit hard on the other side of town with the White Sox in 2024, though Flexen quietly righted the ship after an awful start. He posted a 5.69 ERA through nine starts but logged a 4.62 mark over his final 21 trips to the mound, including a tidy 3.52 earned run average across 46 innings in his last eight starts. Flexen may not bounce back to his 2021-22 numbers in Seattle, but he’s a durable fifth starter if nothing else.

Diamondbacks: INF/OF Garrett Hampson, RHP Scott McGough

The D-backs don’t really have a backup shortstop while Blaze Alexander is sidelined with an oblique strain, which seems to bode well for Hampson. He’s hitting .235/.333/.324 in camp and can play three infield spots and three outfield positions. He had a bleak .230/.275/.300 performance in Kansas City last year but was a league-average hitter for the Marlins as recently as 2023.

McGough was reassigned to minor league camp yesterday after serving up six runs in 4 2/3 innings of spring work. That wasn’t the follow-up to last year’s gruesome 7.44 ERA for which the 35-year-old righty or the team had hoped.

Giants: C Max Stassi, RHP Lou Trivino

Stassi is battling Sam Huff, who’s on the 40-man, for the backup catcher’s role while Tom Murphy is injured. The 34-year-old Stassi is hitting .300/.364/.700 with a pair of homers in 22 spring plate appearances. He’s a plus defender with a scattershot track record at the plate.

Trivino hasn’t pitched since 2022 due to Tommy John surgery and a separate shoulder issue. He also hasn’t allowed a run in 8 1/3 spring innings. (9-to-4 K/BB ratio). Trivino’s scoreless Cactus League showing, his pre-injury track record and his familiarity with skipper Bob Melvin — his manager in Oakland — all seem to give him a real chance to win a spot.

Mariners: RHP Shintaro Fujinami, RHP Trevor Gott, 1B Rowdy Tellez

Fujinami’s command has never been good, and he’s walked more batters (seven) than he’s struck out (four) through 5 2/3 spring innings. He’s also plunked a pair of batters. He’s looking to bounce back from an injury-ruined 2024 season but might have to take his first steps toward doing so in Triple-A.

Tellez has had a big camp and looks like he could have a real chance to make the club in a part-time DH/first base role, as explored more yesterday. Gott is on the mend from Tommy John surgery performed last March and won’t pitch until midseason. He’s unlikely to opt out.

Mets: RHP Jose Ureña

Ureña was torched for seven runs in his first 1 1/3 spring innings after signing with the Mets on Feb. 27. He bounced back by striking out all three opponents he faced in an inning this past weekend, but he hasn’t helped himself otherwise. Ureña’s 3.80 ERA in 109 innings with Texas last year was his first sub-5.00 ERA since 2017-18 in Miami.

Padres: 1B Yuli Gurriel, INF Jose Iglesias

Both veterans have a legitimate chance to make the club. Gurriel has had a productive spring (.296/.321/.519) at nearly 41 years of age, while Iglesias is out to a 5-for-18 start since signing in mid-March. Gurriel could split time at first and DH, lessening the need to use Luis Arraez in the field. Iglesias could see frequent work at second base, shifting Jake Cronenworth to first base and pushing Arraez to DH. The Padres probably wouldn’t have put a hefty (relative to most minor league deals) $3MM base salary on Iglesias’ deal if they didn’t see a real path to him making the roster.

Pirates: LHP Ryan Borucki

Borucki was great for the Pirates in 2023 and struggled through 11 innings during an injury-marred 2024 season. The 30-year-old southpaw has allowed one run in eight spring innings. His five walks are a bit much, but he’s also fanned 11 of his 33 opponents.

Rangers: SS Nick Ahmed, RHP David Buchanan, RHP Jesse Chavez, OF Kevin Pillar, RHP Hunter Strickland

Ahmed has more homers in 28 spring plate appearances than he had in 228 plate appearances in 2024 or 210 plate appearances in 2023. He’s popped three round-trippers already and slashed .286/.310/.607. With a crowded infield and versatile backups like Josh Smith and Ezequiel Duran, Ahmed might still have a hard time cracking the roster.

None of the three pitchers listed here has performed well in limited work. Buchanan had a nice run as a starter in the KBO in the four preceding seasons, while Chavez has been a mainstay in the Atlanta bullpen for much of the past few years. Strickland had a nice 2024 in Anaheim but signed very late and retired only one of the five batters he faced during his long spring outing.

Pillar may have the best chance of the bunch to make the team. He’s hitting .273/.333/.394 in 39 plate appearances. Outfielders Wyatt Langford and Adolis Garcia have been banged up this spring, so some extra outfield depth could make sense.

Rays: DH/OF Eloy Jimenez

Jimenez homered for the second time yesterday, boosting his Grapefruit line to .263/.300/.447. He’s coming off a dreadful season in 2024, but from 2019-23 the former top prospect raked at a .275/.324/.487 pace, including a 31-homer rookie campaign (admittedly, in the juiced-ball 2019 season). Durability has been a bigger factor than productivity. If the Rays can get Jimenez to elevate the ball more, he could be a bargain; he’s still only 28.

Red Sox: LHP Matt Moore, RHP Adam Ottavino

Moore signed on Feb. 20 and has only gotten into two spring games so far, totaling two innings. Ottavino has pitched four innings but allowed five runs. He’s walked five and tossed a pair of wild pitches in that time. Both pitchers have long MLB track records, but they’re both coming off lackluster seasons.

Reds: LHP Wade Miley

Miley underwent Tommy John surgery early last season and contemplated retirement upon learning his prognosis. He wanted to return to one of his former NL Central clubs in free agency, and the Reds clearly offered a more compelling minor league deal than the Brewers. He’s not going to be a realistic option until late May, and it seems unlikely he’d opt out while his rehab is still ongoing.

Rockies: RHP Jake Woodford

Woodford isn’t an Article XX(b) free agent, but MLBTR has learned that he still has a March 22 opt-out. He made his fourth appearance of Rockies camp yesterday, tossing 2 2/3 innings with an earned run. Woodford has allowed seven runs on 11 hits and three walks with five punchouts and a nice 47.2% grounder rate in 10 2/3 frames this spring. He has experience as a starter and reliever. The righty doesn’t miss many bats but keeps the ball on the ground and has good command. He’s a fifth starter/swingman who’s out of minor league options.

Royals: C Luke Maile, RHP Ross Stripling

Maile is a glove-first backup who’s had a nice spring at the plate but has done so on a team with a healthy Salvador Perez and Freddy Fermin. His path to a roster spot doesn’t look great. Speculatively, his former Reds club, which just lost Tyler Stephenson to begin the year, would make sense if they plan to add an outside catcher. Maile’s .214/.294/.329 performance over the past three seasons is light, but he’s already familiar with the bulk of Cincinnati’s staff. He’s a fine backup or No. 3 catcher for any club, Kansas City included.

Stripling notched a 3.01 ERA in 124 innings for the 2022 Blue Jays, but it’s been rough waters since. He was rocked for a 5.68 ERA across the past two seasons, spending time with both Bay Area clubs, and has been tagged for 11 runs on 14 hits — four of them homers — with just two strikeouts in six spring frames. He’ll likely need a strong Triple-A showing, be it with the Royals or another club, to pitch his way back to the majors.

Tigers: LHP Andrew Chafin

Chafin surprisingly commanded only a minor league deal this offseason and has struggled to begin his third stint with the Tigers. He’s been tagged for eight runs in four spring innings, walking six batters along the way. It’s a rough look, but the affable southpaw notched a 3.51 ERA in 56 1/3 MLB frames last year and touts a 3.12 mark across the past four seasons combined.

White Sox: RHP Mike Clevinger, INF Brandon Drury, OF Travis Jankowski

The ChiSox signed Clevinger for a third time late this spring and are trying him in the bullpen. He’s responded with four shutout innings, allowing only one hit and no walks while fanning six hitters. His 2025 White Sox reunion is out to a much better start than his 2024 reunion, wherein he was limited to only 16 innings with a 6.75 ERA thanks to elbow and neck troubles.

Drury could hardly be doing more to secure a spot with the Pale Hose. He’s decimated Cactus League pitching at a .410/.439/.821 pace, slugging three homers and seven doubles in only 41 plate appearances. He’s coming off a terrible 2024 showing with the Angels but hit .263/.313/.493 from 2021-23. It’d be a surprise if the Sox didn’t keep him.

Jankowski started the spring with the Cubs, was granted his release and signed with the Sox. The hits haven’t been dropping, but he has six walks in 25 plate appearances. The White Sox already have Michael A. Taylor in a fourth outfield role. Andrew Benintendi, who missed three-plus weeks with a fractured hand, was back in the lineup yesterday, making Jankowski something of a long shot.

Yankees: RHP Carlos Carrasco

With a nice spring showing and several injuries in the Yankees’ rotation, Carrasco looks to have a good chance at making the roster. Jack Curry of the YES Network already reported it’s “likely” Carrasco will be added this weekend. Carrasco has a 1.69 ERA with 15 strikeouts and seven walks (plus four hit batters) in 16 spring innings. He tossed five shutout frames yesterday.

Tigers Sign Andrew Chafin To Minor League Deal

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5:05pm: Evan Petzold of the Detroit Free Press reports that Chafin will make $2.5MM if he cracks the roster. There’s also $1.5MM available via incentives and a $250K assignment bonus if he is traded.

4:00pm: The Tigers announced that they have signed left-hander Andrew Chafin to a minor league deal with a non-roster invite to spring training. The southpaw is a client of Meister Sports Management.

Chafin, 35 in June, has spent over a decade as an effective lefty reliever. That includes a couple of previous stints with Detroit. He was with the Tigers for the entire 2022 season, posting a 2.83 earned run average. Last year, he had a 3.16 ERA in 37 innings for the Tigers before being traded to the Rangers at the deadline. His results with Texas weren’t quite as strong, so he finished the year with a 3.51 ERA overall.

His profile has changed over his career, as he was previously a strong ground ball guy but has moved more towards strikeouts in more recent seasons. From 2014 to 2022, Chafin tossed 400 2/3 major league innings with a 3.23 ERA, 25.2% strikeout rate, 9.3% walk rate and 50.9% ground ball rate. His pitch mix consisted of 26.6% fastballs, 39.6% sinkers, 32.8% sliders and 1% changeups.

Over the past two seasons, he has bumped the slider usage to 40.6%, mostly at the expense of his fastball, which has been used just 18.3% of the time. That’s led to a 4.10 ERA, 28.3% strikeout rate, 12.6% walk rate and 37.2% ground ball rate.

Though Chafin has been solid and consistent on the whole, he hasn’t been viewed kindly by the open market. In the past seven full seasons, he has logged at least 49 innings, only once posting an ERA higher than 3.76.

He first became a free agent after a rough showing in the shortened 2020 season, spending most of it on the injured list and tossing just 9 2/3 innings. That led to a one-year, $2.8MM deal with the Cubs for 2021. Chafin posted a 1.83 ERA that year and secured a two-year, $13MM deal with Detroit going into 2022, with the second year being a player option.

After posting a 2.83 ERA in 2022, he declined his $6.5MM player option to take another shot at free agency. That didn’t lead to much extra earning power, as he landed a one-year, $6.3MM deal with the Diamondbacks, plus $1MM of incentives. Last winter, another one-year deal was his result, getting a $4.8MM guarantee from the Tigers. This time around, despite a solid campaign, he’s had to settle for a minor league pact.

The Tigers have Tyler Holton, Brant Hurter and Sean Guenther as lefty relievers on the roster. Holton should have a big league job locked down but Guenther has just 41 1/3 innings in the majors with a 5.01 ERA. Hurter just made his MLB debut last year and is also in the rotation mix, so the club might prefer to have him as a frequently-optioned multi-inning guy/depth starter.

If Chafin looks like his old self in camp, he could perhaps get a job as the second lefty in the bullpen alongside Holton. If not, he’ll have chances to look elsewhere. Under the current collective bargaining agreement, Article XX(b) free agents get guaranteed opt-out chances on minor league deals if they are signed more than ten days prior to Opening Day. An Article XX(b) free agent is one with six years of service who finished the previous season on a 40-man roster or 60-day injured list. Those opt-out chances are five days prior to Opening Day, May 1st and June 1st.

Yankees Showing Interest In Andrew Chafin

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The Yankees have interest in Andrew Chafin, reports Jon Heyman of the New York Post. New York is looking for a left-handed bullpen arm. Heyman reported earlier this week that a reunion with Tim Hill was also a possibility.

Both players are natural targets for a team that doesn’t have a single left-hander in its projected bullpen. The Yankees only have two left-handed pitchers on their 40-man roster: Max Fried and Carlos Rodón. New York has yet to add an experienced southpaw on a minor league contract either, so they’ll probably look for multiple lefties over the coming weeks.

Chafin, 34, has been a durable and generally reliable middle innings arm for a decade. He’s coming off another decent season, turning in a 3.51 earned run average across 56 1/3 innings between the Tigers and Rangers. Most of the positives came during his first few months in Detroit, however. Chafin carried a 3.16 ERA with a near-31% strikeout rate into late July. Things went downhill after a deadline deal sending him to Texas. He allowed a 4.19 ERA with the Rangers. His strikeout rate fell to 24% while his walk percentage nearly doubled to an untenable 17.9% clip.

While it wasn’t a great finish, Chafin has an extended track record. Despite middling velocity, he has fanned around 28% of batters faced in three straight years. He missed bats on a huge 15.4% of his pitches this year — the second-highest rate of his career. Chafin has walked more than 12% of opponents in consecutive seasons, reflecting command that comes and goes. He can handle hitters of either handedness, though, so he shouldn’t have an issue finding another big league contract. Chafin has been a bullpen workhorse, topping 50 innings in seven of the last eight full seasons. (He threw 49 1/3 frames in 2018.) His only injured list stint in the last four years was a two-week stay in April ’22 for a groin strain.

Chafin has signed one-year contracts — respectively valued at $6.25MM and $4.75MM — in the last two winters. Texas declined a $6.5MM club option at the beginning of the offseason. Chafin will be limited to one year and could land a base salary in the $3-5MM range.

Cubs Reportedly “Determined” To Trade Seiya Suzuki Or Cody Bellinger

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The Cubs are “determined” to trade one of first baseman/outfielder Cody Bellinger or outfielder Seiya Suzuki, reports Joel Sherman of The New York Post, with the idea of then redirecting their cost savings to upgrade other parts of the roster. Per Bruce Levine of 670 The Score, the Cubs have some interest in catchers Carson Kelly and Danny Jansen as well as relievers Andrew Chafin and Kirby Yates.

The Cubs have been seen as a logical candidate to move an outfielder due to having a fairly crowded mix on the grass. Pete Crow-Armstrong seemingly established himself as a viable glove-first center fielder this year, with the potential for huge value if his offense takes a step forward. For the corner spots, the Cubs have Bellinger, Suzuki and Ian Happ. Bellinger can also play some first base but Michael Busch took that position and ran with it this year.

There are also some other options lurking just below those established big leaguers. Alexander Canario has just 45 major league plate appearances but he has always hit well in Triple-A and is now out of options. Kevin Alcántara and Owen Caissie are both on the 40-man roster and consensus top 100 prospects in the league. Alcántara made a brief MLB debut in 2024 while Caissie spent the whole season in Triple-A and played well, so both are arguably ready for some proper big league playing time. Even with the designated hitter spot open, that’s more guys than the Cubs have spots.

But untangling the knot comes with complications. The prospects and Crow-Armstrong are cheap and controllable, so the the Cubs probably view them as part of the long-term solution, especially since the Happ/Bellinger/Suzuki trio are all slated for free agency after 2026, with Bellinger able to opt out of his deal after 2025. But Happ and Suzuki have no-trade clauses, making it difficult to move them.

Bellinger is also difficult to trade on account of that opt-out. For the Cubs or an acquiring club, the best case scenario is that he plays well in 2025 and leaves, but even that wouldn’t be cheap. He’s going to make $27.5MM in 2025 and then gets to choose between a $5MM buyout and $25MM salary in 2026. That means that even a one-and-done from Bellinger in 2025 will cost $32.5MM. Teams may have some willingness to take a chance on Bellinger bouncing back from a middling 2024 campaign, but the downside is that he doesn’t quite get back into form and sticks around for 2026. In that scenario, the acquiring team would be on the hook for $52.5MM over two years for a struggling player.

At this point, it’s anyone’s guess which version of Bellinger is going to show up next year, given his up-and-down career. He won an MVP award earlier in his career but then suffered through a few miserable seasons, perhaps struggling to get healthy after a notable shoulder surgery. He bounced back with the Cubs in 2023, hitting 26 home runs, slashing .307/.356/.525 and stealing 20 bases. FanGraphs credited him with 4.4 wins above replacement in 130 games. He played the same number of games in 2024 but with his fWAR cut in half to 2.2. His home run tally dropped to 18, he stole nine bases and he played less time in center field as Crow-Armstrong took over that spot.

Lining up with another club on a trade could be difficult, but it’s still a possibility. At the start of the offseason, we put Bellinger on our list of likely trade candidates, though with a spot near the bottom as a reflection of the complications. It was reported this week that the Yankees, Mariners and Astros have checked in about him.

With Suzuki, this is the first suggestion that he is available, and he will surely draw interest. In his 381 major league games thus far, he has hit 55 home runs and drawn walks at a 10.2% clip. His .278/.354/.470 batting line translates to a 129 wRC+ and he has seemingly been getting better over time. His home run total has gone from 14 to 20 and then 21 in his three seasons, with his walk rate climbing year-over-year from 9.4% to 10.1% and then 10.8%. As such, his wRC+ has gone from 118 in his rookie season to 128 and then 138.

Suzuki isn’t considered a strong defender, with the advanced metrics mixed on exactly where to rank him. He has -5 Outs Above Average to this point but Defensive Runs Saved has him at league average overall, and with apparent improvements. He had -4 DRS in his rookie season and then +2 in each of the subsequent campaigns to get back to par overall.

Regardless, the bat should make him appealing and his contract isn’t onerous. He is going to make $18MM in each of the next two years, his age-30 and -31 campaigns, for a total guarantee of $36MM. Comparable free agents are likely to earn far more than that on the open market. MLBTR predicted that Anthony Santander could secure a contract of $80MM over four years, with guys like Teoscar Hernández, Jurickson Profar and Tyler O’Neill projected for the $40-60MM range.

As mentioned, Suzuki has a full no-trade clause. That naturally complicates the possibility of a trade, as the Cubs would be limited in their discussions to whatever clubs Suzuki would be willing to join and it’s unknown what his preferences are or might be. The Cubs will presumably have discussions with Suzuki and various suitors to see what possibilities exist for them. If a deal can come together, it would open up some playing time for their prospects while freeing up some cash for other pursuits.

It doesn’t appear the budget is especially tight right now. RosterResource has the Cubs projected for a $185MM payroll, well below last year’s Opening Day mark of $214MM, per Cot’s Baseball Contracts. Perhaps the Cubs are planning to keep spending a bit tight this offseason, as many predicted them to pursue a notable rotation upgrade such as Corbin Burnes or Max Fried. But they recently agreed to a two-year, $29MM deal with Matthew Boyd, a notable expense but far less than what Burnes or Fried are expected to earn.

The club is known to be looking for help behind the plate and Kelly and Jansen are two of the better names available in free agency. Kelly has generally paired some solid defense with passable offense in his career. Though his bat has gone up and down a bit, he has a .224/.307/.373 batting line in his career for a wRC+ of 85. Jansen, on the other hand, had a long stretch as a great hitter but is coming into free agency on a down note. He hit .237/.317/.487 for a wRC+ of 121 from 2021 to 2023 and got out to a roaring start in 2024 as well but then slashed .158/.274/.243 for a wRC+ of 53 after the month of May.

MLBTR predicted a two-year, $20MM guarantee for Jansen as part of our Top 50 free agents list, with Kelly in the honorable mention section. Either should easily fit into Chicago’s budget with or without an outfield trade.

Chafin and Yates both align with the Cubs and their aversion to notable deals for relievers, as shown in MLBTR’s Contract Tracker. Since Jed Hoyer took over as president of baseball operations, the club has never given a multi-year deal to a free agent reliever. Last year’s $9MM one-year deal for Héctor Neris was the first time Hoyer went beyond $5MM for a bullpen signing.

Yates just wrapped up a tremendous season, tossing 61 2/3 innings with a 1.17 earned run average and 35.9% strikeout rate. But since he’s turning 38 years old in March and has a notable injury history, he will likely be limited to a one-year deal. MLBTR’s $14MM projection would be new territory for Hoyer, though only slightly. Chafin has been a solid bullpen lefty for over a decade, with a 3.42 ERA in 601 appearances. His last two trips to free agency have resulted in one-year deals of $6.3MM and then $4.8MM.

Rangers Decline Andrew Chafin’s Club Option

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The Rangers announced that they declined their $6.5MM club option on left-hander Andrew Chafin for the 2025 season. Chafin will receive a $500K buyout and enter free agency.

It’ll be the fourth straight offseason on the market for the 34-year-old Chafin, who has signed with the Tigers, D-backs and Tigers over the past three seasons. The first of those was a two-year pact with an opt-out, which he took the following winter. He’s earned salaries of $6.5MM, $6.25MM and $4.75MM along the way in those three respective seasons and will now likely land another short-term pact in free agency.

The 2024 season was a solid one for Chafin, who split the year between Detroit and Texas. He pitched a combined 56 1/3 innings with a 3.51 ERA, 28.5% strikeout rate, 12.6% walk rate and 36% grounder rate. Chafin has lost some life on his fastball in recent seasons and seen his once-strong command dip, but he remains a generally effective reliever against hitters from both sides of the dish. Lefties did post an uncharacteristically strong split against him in 2024 (.273/.363/.375), but that was due largely to an inflated .400 average on balls in play that should come back down to earth.

Over the past four seasons, Chafin has worked to a combined 3.12 ERA, though the manner in which he’s gotten to his generally solid results has changed. He’s adopted a more slider-heavy approach in recent seasons, doing so at the expense of his four-seamer and sinker. That’s led to more missed bats but also more walks and fewer grounders. Each of his pitches has graded out better than average at least once in those four seasons, but his slider has been a consistently plus pitch so it’s no surprise to see him gravitate toward it more strongly — particularly as his four-seam and two-seam fastballs lose a bit of life.

Although the Rangers passed on guaranteeing Chafin $6.5MM from the jump, they’re still likely to be heavily involved in the bullpen market this winter. Chafin is one of four relievers departing, joining David Robertson, Kirby Yates and Jose Leclerc. That quartet accounted for much of the leverage work among Texas relievers. Declining Chafin’s option isn’t so much a sign that they’re not interested in keeping him or adding other bullpen arms; rather, it’s likely that Texas wants to make sure it has as much powder dry for top offseason pursuits, likely headlined by fellow free agent Nathan Eovaldi, whom president of baseball ops Chris Young has already called a “priority” in free agency.

What Would It Take For The Rangers To Duck Under The Luxury Tax Line?

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The 2023 Angels entered the trade deadline as something of a long-shot contender but nevertheless embarked on an aggressive win-now push. In an effort both to break their postseason drought and perhaps to show impending free agent Shohei Ohtani a commitment to winning, the Halos went out and acquired Lucas Giolito, Reynaldo Lopez, C.J. Cron, Randal Grichuk and Dominic Leone. It was a valiant, if not desperate effort, and it fell short almost immediately. By mid-August, the Angels were buried in the standings with virtually no hope of climbing back into contention. With the former August trade waiver system no longer in place, GM Perry Minasian and his staff waved the white flag in a new and more drastic way: they put more than one quarter of the roster on outright waivers.

By placing Giolito, Lopez, Cron, Grichuk, Leone, Matt Moore, Hunter Renfroe and Tyler Anderson on waivers, the Angels positioned themselves to A) save an enormous amount of money, B) potentially dip back under the luxury tax threshold (they succeeded), and C) impact several postseason races ... just not in the way they originally envisioned. For those who don't recall, the Guardians claimed Giolito, Lopez and Moore. Renfroe was claimed by the Reds. Leone went to the Mariners. Grichuk and Anderson were not claimed.

Last week, MLBTR's Darragh McDonald previewed a handful of veterans who could hit waivers in just this fashion later this month. Since Darragh wrote that piece, one team has emerged as an even likelier candidate to go down this road; as the Astros have gone on an eight-game winning streak and the Mariners have kept in arm's reach, the Rangers have fallen to a daunting 10 games back in the AL West and 10.5 back in the Wild Card hunt. FanGraphs gives the Rangers a 0.6% chance of reaching the postseason. Baseball Prospectus' PECOTA is more bullish ... at 2.4%. Texas isn't mathematically eliminated, but they're not far off.

As Darragh noted last week and as both Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic and Jon Becker of FanGraphs have explored this week, there's an argument that the Rangers should jettison some of their impending free agents and cut back costs. In his column, Becker looked at how much money the Rangers would save by placing their impending free agents on waivers two days before the Aug. 31 postseason eligibility deadline. Rosenthal noted within his column that there's no clear path to dipping under the luxury tax for the Rangers, "so their only motivation would be to save on salary."

Technically that's true, but it's also not impossible for the Rangers to duck under the threshold without placing their entire roster on waivers for the taking. While sneaking under the tax threshold is a tall order, it could potentially be done without completely decimating next season's roster. Let's take a look at how they could get there and at what type of benefits they'd receive for doing so.

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Rangers Acquire Andrew Chafin

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The Rangers announced they’ve acquired lefty reliever Andrew Chafin from the Tigers. Pitching prospects Joseph Montalvo and Chase Lee are going to Detroit. Texas designated righty Jonathan Hernandez for assignment in a corresponding move.

The 34-year-old Chafin is in the midst of yet another solid season. He’s pitched 37 innings of 3.16 ERA ball with a big 30.9% strikeout rate, a 9.9% walk rate and a 35.8% grounder rate. He’s been particularly dominant of late, rattling off 17 innings of one-run ball with a 26-to-5 K/BB ratio dating back to early June.

That 35.8% grounder rate is an uncharacteristically low mark for Chafin, who’s changed up his pitch usage this year. He’s throwing more sliders than ever before (46.4%) and missing more bats as a result but also yielding more balls in the air and a few more walks than in recent years. Chafin’s velocity is down a bit from its 93-94 mph peak, however, sitting around 92 mph on average this year with both his four-seamer and sinker. It’s possible the change in repertoire was borne out of the diminishing life on those harder offerings. Regardless, it’s been an effective recipe for the well-traveled southpaw, who’ll now suit up for the sixth team of his 11-year career.

Chafin is playing on a one-year, $4.75MM contract, although the Rangers are picking up another year of possible control over him in the form of a 2025 club option valued at $6.5MM (a net $6MM decision after factoring in a $500K buyout). He’s owed about $1.42MM of his $4.25MM base salary but has a handful of incentives approaching that could boost the value of that contract. Chafin would earn a $125K bonus for pitching in his 50th game — he’s at 41 appearances — before taking home $250K bonuses for reaching 55 and 60 games, a $300K bonus for 65 games and a $325K bonus for reaching 70 appearances. The last of those milestones could be hard to reach, but the Rangers will be on the hook for some additional incentives of note, which will all come with a 30% tax given their luxury-tax status.

With Chafin’s acquisition and Cody Bradford’s return from a 60-day IL stint, a Rangers bullpen that has lacked an established left-handed option for much of the season will suddenly have two quality options in that regard. Chafin will join a late-inning mix including Kirby Yates, David Robertson and Jose Leclerc. He’s held lefties to an awful .180/.261/.213 batting line this season, and while righties are enjoying more success at .293/.366/.390, they’re not managing much power against the southpaw. In his career, Chafin has yielded only a .234/.313/.361 line to right-handed opponents, though much of that came with a more vibrant fastball and different mix of his three pitches.

The trade for Chafin underscores the fact that yesterday’s trade of Michael Lorenzen to the Royals was less about selling off in the midst of a disappointing season and rather opening space for the return of several other veteran starters (e.g. Max Scherzer, Tyler Mahle, Dane Dunning and, further down the road, Jacob deGrom). Much of the cost-savings from that trade of Lorenzen — earning $4.5MM with incentives of his own — will now be reallocated to the comparably priced Chafin.

Montalvo is the more highly regarded of the prospects headed to Detroit. Baseball America ranked him 19th on their most recent update of the Texas system, crediting him with a plus changeup and the ability to spin his low-90s fastball. He’s dominating lower minors opponents, striking out nearly 30% of batters faced with a 2.44 ERA in High-A. Lee is an upper minors reliever who’ll be eligible for the Rule 5 draft next offseason if he’s not added to the 40-man roster. He lost the first couple months of this season to injury but had a 3.98 ERA in Triple-A last year.

ESPN’s Jeff Passan first reported the Rangers were finalizing a deal for Chafin. The Athletic’s Ken Rosenthal confirmed an agreement was in place. Evan Grant of the Dallas Morning News reported the Tigers would receive Montalvo and Lee.

Latest On Tigers’ Trade Candidates

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“The Tigers are listening to everything” in regards to trade possibilities, Evan Petzold of the Detroit Free Press writes, as the team is at least open to moving both pending free agents and players under longer-term control.  It remains unclear exactly how aggressive the Tigers might be in moving anyone who isn’t controlled beyond 2025, as while it costs the team nothing to test the market for offers, Detroit does broadly expect to finally get back to contention next season.

With a 52-54 record, the Tigers are still technically in contention this season, as they sit only 5.5 games back of the final AL wild card berth.  A stirring 14-8 record in July has kept Detroit alive in the playoff picture, yet with the postseason still something of a longshot, this recent surge hasn’t been enough to detract from the Tigers’ plan to move some veterans.

Jack Flaherty and Mark Canha have been mentioned in trade rumors already, but Petzold notes that the Tigers are “shopping” catcher Carson Kelly.  As MLBTR’s Steve Adams observed in a piece earlier this month, Kelly has rebounded after a couple of down years to assume close to an even split of Detroit’s catching duties alongside Jake Rogers. Kelly has is hitting .242/.327/.393 with seven home runs over 202 plate appearances, translating to an above-average 106 wRC+.

Despite the importance of the catching position, it is relatively rare to see prominent backstops dealt at the deadline, due in part to all of the added prep work that a catcher must handle behind the scenes.  Since so much of the job is based around handling pitchers and calling games, it can quite difficult for a catcher to join a new team and immediately be tasked with learning the tendencies for an entire new set of hurlers.

This alone complicates Detroit’s efforts to move Kelly, not to mention the fact that a lot of other contenders are relatively set at the catching position.  That said, you never know what teams might emerge with needs — the Red Sox weren’t seemingly in search of catching on paper, yet Boston acquired Danny Jansen from the Blue Jays yesterday.  Kelly is also pretty inexpensive, as has about $1.22MM remaining on his $3.5MM salary for the 2024 season.

In terms of players with extra control, Andrew Chafin and Shelby Miller can each be retained via club options for the 2025 season.  (Chafin’s option is worth $6.5MM with a $500K buyout, while Miller’s option is for $4.25MM with a $250K buyout.)  According to Petzold, the Tigers are leaning towards picking up both options for now, though their plans could change if another team makes a good enough offer for either pitcher by Tuesday’s deadline.

Chafin has more value as a left-handed reliever, plus his numbers are better than Miller’s this season.  Chafin has a 3.25 ERA with an outstanding 29.9% strikeout rate over 36 innings, and while he is still prone to issuing free passes, the veteran’s 9.6% walk rate is still markedly improved over his 12.5% figure from 2023.  Miller is something of the opposite, as he has a strong 5.4% walk rate but his other numbers are a lot rougher — a 4.66 ERA in 36 2/3 frames out of the Tigers’ bullpen.

Sticking with the relief corps, Petzold reports that the Tigers have gotten trade interest in both Jason Foley and Will Vest, but the club is unlikely to move either right-hander.  Foley and Vest are both controlled through 2027 and won’t even reach their first rounds of salary arbitration until this coming offseason, so barring a very compelling offer, Detroit has no reason to consider moving relievers who aim to be part of the bullpen plans for years to come.

Foley in particular has performed well as Detroit’s closer this season, saving 15 of 18 chances and posting a 3.22 ERA in 36 1/3 innings.  If there is a reason for the Tigers to think about selling high, it could be that Foley doesn’t fit the traditional model for a lights-out stopper.  Foley is a grounder specialist with surprisingly low strikeout totals for a pitcher with a 96.9mph fastball, though his slider has been much more effective than his heater this season.

Vest has quietly posted strong numbers for two seasons in a row now, following up his 2.98 ERA in 48 1/3 innings in 2023 with a 3.15 ERA in 45 2/3 frames this year.  Somewhat akin to Foley, Vest also doesn’t miss many bats, but he is very good at limiting hard contact.  Only six percent of Vest’s fly balls have left the yard over the last two seasons, and his 2.9% barrel rate is in the 97th percentile of all pitchers in 2024.

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