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Royals Sign Will Smith

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The Royals announced the signing of left-hander Will Smith to a one-year contract. It’s reportedly a $5MM guarantee for the CAA client, who could earn up to $1MM in additional incentives. He’d receive $125K for every fifth appearance between 25 and 60 contests.

Smith, 34, returns to the club with whom he made his big league debut back in 2012. Then a starting pitcher, Smith took the ball for 16 turns through the rotation during his age-22 rookie campaign, struggling to a 5.32 ERA and 4.66 FIP across 89 2/3 innings of work. The Royals converted Smith to relief the following season, and the southpaw hasn’t looked back since. He posted a solid 3.24 ERA, 23% better than league average by ERA+, and a 3.03 FIP from 2013-16 across 202 2/3 innings of work split between the Royals, Brewers, and Giants organizations.

Smith missed the entire 2017 season after undergoing Tommy John surgery, but returned to the mound in 2018 to deliver the finest two seasons of his career. Pitching for San Francisco in 2018-19, Smith posted a 2.66 ERA and 2.71 FIP, striking out a whoping 35.8% of batters faced while racking up 48 saves and earning his lone career All Star appearance during the 2019 season. That dominant performance earned him a three-year, $40MM deal with the Braves in free agency the following winter.

The lefty struggled during the first season of that deal, posting a 4.50 ERA with a whopping 7.38 FIP during the shortened 2020 season, though that amounted to just 16 innings of work. The remainder of the contract saw Smith post decent numbers out of the bullpen as the Braves won the World Series in 2021, though he would ultimately be shipped to Houston the following year in a swap that brought Jake Odorizzi to Atlanta. Overall, Smith posted a 3.69 ERA and 4.21 FIP over 127 innings while striking out 27.9% of batters faced and collecting two World Series rings between the 2021 and 2022 campaigns.

In his return to the open market last winter, Smith lingered on the free agent market until late March before ultimately signing with the Rangers on a one-year, $1.5MM guarantee. Though Smith posted a roughly league average 4.40 ERA in 2023, he managed a more palatable 3.36 FIP and recorded 22 saves in 27 chances for Texas last season as they went on to make the postseason for the first time since 2016 before winning the first World Series championship in franchise history and earning Smith his third consecutive World Series ring.

Back on the free agent market once again, Smith wasted no time in agreeing to a deal this winter, and figures to get the opportunity to close for the Royals entering the 2024 campaign. The contract will give the southpaw the opportunity to bounce back on a team with minimal hopes of making the playoffs next season, a similar situation to the one Kansas City offered Aroldis Chapman in 2023 before he joined Smith in Texas following a midseason trade. Meanwhile the Royals are surely hoping that, if they do find themselves on the outside looking in with regards to the playoff race, Smith will have pitched well enough by the time the trade deadline rolls around next summer to net the club a solid return just as Chapman did when he was swapped for Cole Ragans. Ragans, 26 this week, made 12 starts for the Royals down the stretch after the club acquired him from the Rangers and impressed with a 2.64 ERA and 31.1% strikeout rate in 71 2/3 innings of work.

Jeff Passan of ESPN first reported Smith and the Royals had agreed to a one-year, $5MM guarantee. Ken Rosenthal of the Athletic reported the possibility of $1MM in incentives, which the Associated Press specified.

Scott Boras Discusses Gerrit Cole’s 2024 Opt-Out Clause

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Yankees ace Gerrit Cole just won the first Cy Young award of his career in a unanimous vote last month, adding another significant accomplishment to the right-hander’s incredible resume. The Yankees, meanwhile, are desperate to get back to the playoffs after an 82-80 campaign in 2023. The club dealt away much of its big-league ready pitching depth in order to acquire Juan Soto and Trent Grisham in a seven-player deal last week. While the trade bolstered the club’s lineup considerably, it leaves them more reliant than ever on the 33-year-old than ever as they look ahead to the 2024 season. While bounceback seasons from the likes of Carlos Rodon and Nestor Cortes could certainly take some of the burden off Cole’s shoulders, it’s hard to imagine much success in the Bronx next year if Cole can’t muster a repeat performance.

Betting on Cole is a fairly safe decision for the Yankees. Since being swapped from the Pirates to the Astros prior to the 2018 season, Cole has been at or near the top of virtually all pitching leaderboards. His 28.5 fWAR over the past six seasons leads all MLB pitchers, and no hurler has thrown more innings than Cole’s 1,076 2/3 frames. Cole’s 2.93 ERA is only outclassed by Jacob deGrom, Justin Verlander, Clayton Kershaw, Max Scherzer, and Walker Buehler among starting pitchers in that timeframe. His 33.4% strikeout rate is only outclassed by deGrom, Chris Sale, and Tyler Glasnow, while his 2.97 SIERA is bested by only deGrom and Sale. That combination of dominance and durability puts Cole on the shortlist for the best starting pitchers in the game at the moment.

As Cole enters year five of his nine-year, $324MM contract with the Yankees, speculation has begun to arise regarding the opt-out he holds on the final four years of this contract in New York. Even as Cole would be entering the free agent market at the age of 34, it seems all but certain that the righty would be able to top the four years and $144MM remaining on his contract on the open market barring a catastrophic 2024 campaign. With that being said, the contract isn’t as simple as Cole holding the sole decision over his opt-out clause. Should Cole decide to exercise his opt-out, the Yankees can void that decision by tacking an addition year and $36MM onto Cole’s existing contract, effectively offering him a one-year, $36MM extension that would take the sum of his deal in the Bronx to $360MM over ten years.

Agent Scott Boras, who represents Cole, has indicated he believes that’s exactly how the situation will play out next year. As quoted by USA Today’s Bob Nightengale, Boras indicated that he and Cole “would anticipate” that both Cole opting out of his contract and the Yankees voiding that decision “are going to happen” next offseason. It’s a reasonable assumption to make, given the likelihood that Cole will be able to command a guarantee greater than $144MM on the open market next season. For him to actually get the opportunity to test the open market, the Yankees would need to decide they aren’t interested in retaining Cole on what would effectively be a five-year, $180MM contract.

Assuming Cole posts a reasonable facsimile of his recent performance in 2024, such a deal would appear to be roughly fair market value for his services. After all, deGrom received a five-year, $185MM contract from the Rangers last winter entering his own age-35 campaign, despite the fact that he had pitched just 156 1/3 innings over the 2021-22 seasons. Cole, by contrast, has already surpassed that tw0-year innings total before throwing a single pitch in 2024. While the $36MM average annual value of the deal would be among the heftier yearly salaries in the game, it’s no different than what the Yankees are currently paying Cole and clubs around the league haven’t shied away from offering large annual salaries to top starting pitchers, even as they grow older. The deals Scherzer and Verlander signed with the Mets the past two offseasons are perhaps the best examples of this, and each veteran hurler was offered an AAV north of $40MM on pacts that would cover Scherzer’s late thirties and Verlander’s early forties.

Shohei Ohtani Notes: Advertising Revenue, 40-Man Roster Move

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The baseball world is still reeling from the news of two-way superstar Shohei Ohtani signing a ten-year, $700MM deal with the Dodgers. Not only is it the largest contract in baseball history (by a mile), it is the most lucrative deal for any professional athlete, surpassing the four-year €555MM contract (approximately $674MM in USD) soccer star Lionel Messi signed with FC Barcelona in 2017. Given the unprecedented nature of the deal, it’s more than fair for fans to wonder if it makes financial sense. Is Ohtani genuinely worth nearly twice as much as Aaron Judge? Can a single player truly provide $70MM in value per year over the next ten years?

Moreover, various outlets have reported that the Dodgers significantly outbid the competition to secure Ohtani’s services. J.P. Hoornstra of Dodgers Nation reports that the Dodgers upped their offer by as much as $100MM on the final day of negotiations. Jon Heyman of the New York Post quotes a team source from one of the finalists, who claimed, “We certainly were not at 699 [million dollars].” Meanwhile, when asked if the Angels had made an offer close to that $700MM number, team president John Carpino simply responded, “No comment” (per Sarah Valenzuela of the L.A. Times).

However, it is critical to remember that Ohtani’s deal is not worth $700MM in present-day value, due to the deferred payments in the contract. As Jeff Passan of ESPN eloquently explained, “Money today is more valuable than money tomorrow, inflation being what it is.” Thus, the other finalists for Ohtani might not have offered him anywhere close to $700MM total, but that doesn’t mean the Dodgers blew any other offer out of the water in terms of present-day value.

More to the point, while Ohtani’s contract might be unprecedented, so too is Ohtani an unprecedented player. The value he will bring to his new organization goes beyond his performance on the field, and the Dodgers could be in for a windfall if they know how to market their brand-new international superstar. Sam Blum and Fabian Ardaya of The Athletic quote an anonymous MLB evaluator who claims the deal will “pay for itself within six or seven years… Even just on advertising alone.” That might be an exaggeration, but still, it’s clear how highly Ohtani is valued around the league.

As many sources have pointed out (including Bob Nightengale of USA Today), Ohtani earned approximately $40MM in endorsement deals last offseason. The MLB player with the next highest endorsement-related income was Mike Trout, who took home $5MM. If Ohtani can personally command so much money, the team he plays for should be able to cash in big as well.

According to Mike DiGiovanna of the L.A. Times, the Angels earned somewhere between $10MM and $20MM per year in “Ohtani-related advertising, promotions, [and] marketing revenue.” Nightengale believes that number was even higher, claiming Ohtani “brought in $25 million a year.” Both reporters suggest the Dodgers could double that revenue, thanks to their higher level of popularity, both locally and across the globe. At the high end of that estimation, the Dodgers would earn back more than half of Ohtani’s annual salary, and the team is surely hoping he will continue to bring extra value to the franchise long after his ten-year deal is complete.

On that note, it’s worth acknowledging that although the Dodgers are regularly big spenders, their front office has demonstrated a keen ability to get the best bang for its buck. While some high-spending teams have crashed and burned in recent years, the Dodgers have made the playoffs in 11 straight seasons, winning ten NL West division titles in that time. They have won over 100 games in four of the last five years, and the only year they didn’t, the shortened 2020 campaign, they went 43-17 (.717, a 116-win pace) en route to a World Series championship. This team spends in abundance, but they don’t spend frivolously. If the Dodgers are paying Ohtani $700MM, it’s because they think he’s worth even more, and they haven’t given us any reason to doubt their accounting so far.

In other Ohtani news, Jack Harris of the L.A. Times points out that the signing has not yet been made official. However, that doesn’t mean the deal is at risk of falling through. Ohtani himself has already confirmed the agreement, and it’s hard to imagine his physical would hold up the deal; the Dodgers already know he is recovering from his second UCL procedure and won’t pitch in 2024. Instead, Harris suggests that the Dodgers are still figuring out their corresponding 40-man roster move. The club’s roster is currently full, so they will need to make a trade or designate someone for assignment in order to finalize Ohtani’s contract. What’s more, they also need to free up a roster spot for veteran reliever Joe Kelly, whose one-year, $8MM contract has not been finalized either. Expect a trade or a roster move in the coming days.

NL Notes: Alonso, Yamamoto, Dodgers, Brewers

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The Mets and first baseman Pete Alonso have not engaged in extension talks this offseason, according to Tim Healey of Newsday. Healey adds that it’s as of yet unclear if the club intends to broach the subject of a long-term deal with Alonso this winter.

Reports last month indicated that Alonso hopes to surpass recent long-term deals signed by the likes of Matt Olson and Freddie Freeman, and the 29-year-old changed representation to the Boras Corporation earlier this offseason. For his part, Scott Boras told reporters (including Healey) at the Winter Meetings that he’s spoken to president of baseball operations David Stearns and that he and Alonso are “all ears” regarding potential negotiations. Healey goes on to suggest that Alonso could be on track to follow in the footsteps of teammate Brandon Nimmo. Much like Alonso, Nimmo switched representation to Boras in the final offseason before he hit the open market. Any contract discussions with the Mets that offseason didn’t result in an extension, leaving Nimmo to hit free agency that winter. Upon hitting the open market, he re-upped with the Mets on an eight-year, $162MM contract.

Of course, it’s worth noting that Nimmo went through that process at a time when the Mets were a staunchly win-now team that ultimately won 101 games during his 2022 walk season. While the club has made clear that they plan for Alonso to be part of the Opening Day roster next season and that they hope to compete in 2024, the club’s focus appears to be on building for the future and it would hardly be a shock if Alonso were to find himself traded midseason if the Mets were to fall out of the race once again in 2024. Whether as a trade candidate or an extension candidate, Alonso is an attractive target as one of the game’s premiere power hitters. His 192 home runs lead the majors since he made his debut back in 2019, while only Aaron Judge, Olson, Kyle Schwarber, and Shohei Ohtani have crushed more dingers over the past three seasons than Alonso’s 123.

More from around the National League…

  • While the Dodgers made waves earlier today by agreeing to a record-setting $700MM deal with Ohtani, Jon Heyman of the New York Post indicates that landing the winter’s biggest fish won’t stop the club from pursuing other marquee free agents. Heyman indicates that even after factoring in Ohtani’s massive deal, the Dodgers still have both the desire and the necessary payroll capacity to sign NPB star Yoshinobu Yamamoto. Yamamoto, 25, is moving stateside on the heels of three consecutive sub-2.00 ERA campaigns in Japan. A report earlier this week suggested that the Dodgers were among seven teams considered to be finalists for the right-hander’s services, and Heyman even suggests that LA could be ahead except the Mets and Yankees in their pursuit of Yamamoto. The young righty is an obvious fit for a Dodgers roster with an otherworldly lineup but little certainty in the rotation. Sophomore right-hander Bobby Miller is joined by Walker Buehler as the only starters locked into the club’s Opening Day rotation as things stand, though even Buehler will be pitching for the first time since early 2022 after undergoing the second Tommy John surgery of his career.
  • The Brewers are continuing to finalize their coaching staff under new manager Pat Murphy, who was promoted from his role as bench coach following the departure of longtime manager Craig Counsell earlier this offseason. To that end, Will Sammon of The Athletic reports that the club is moving assistant director of player development Charlie Greene from the front office to the big league coaching staff, where he’ll take over as Milwaukee’s bullpen coach. Greene will take over for Jim Henderson, who in turn is becoming the club’s assistant pitching coach.

Mariners Sign Brett de Geus To Minor League Deal

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The Mariners have signed right-hander Brett de Geus to a minor league, according to the transactions tracker on his MLB.com profile page. He has since been assigned to Triple-A Tacoma.

de Geus, 26, began his professional career when he was selected by the Dodgers in the 33rd round of the 2017 draft. He made his big league debut with the Rangers during the 2021 season, though his rookie seasons did not go particularly well. In 50 innings of work split between the Rangers and Diamondbacks, de Geus struggled badly with a 7.56 ERA and 5.07 FIP. He struck out just 17.2% of batters faced while walking 10.5%, ratios his standout 52.5% groundball rate was unable to make up for. Those struggles at the big league level led de Geus to spend the 2022 season in the independent Atlantic League, which he remained in for the start of the 2023 season as well.

Just six appearances into his second season of independent ball, however, he jumped ship to sign with the Royals on a minor league contract. de Geus’s first season back in organized ball saw him post mixed results; while he was shelled to the tune of a 11.45 in 11 innings of work at the Triple-A level, he impressed in 35 1/3 Double-A innings with a 2.80 ERA. Looking under the hood of that Double-A performance, de Geus struck out 20.6% of batters faced while generating groundballs at a 56.8% clip.

Clearly, in signing de Geus Seattle is making a bet that his Double-A numbers last season are more indicative of his overall ability than his 11-inning stint at the highest level of the minors last year. Despite his largely middling results, de Geus could prove to be an interesting piece of bullpen depth as the Mariners enter the 2024 campaign thanks to his proclivity for keeping the ball on the ground. It’s a trait the Mariners clearly value in relief arms, as the club’s bullpen posted an impressive 48.2% groundball rate last season, good for the third-best figure in the majors behind only the Yankees and Cardinals.

Latest On J.D. Martinez’s Market

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Among the top free agents on the market his offseason, one could argue that no player has had his market impacted more by the presence of two-way superstar Shohei Ohtani than veteran slugger J.D. Martinez. After all, the Dodgers declined to extend Martinez a qualifying offer last month despite interest in a reunion due to the complications that would arise if the club landed both Martinez and Ohtani. With Ohtani now signed in LA on a record-shattering $700MM deal, its hard to imagine the Dodgers-Martinez reunion both sides appeared to have interest in coming together. To that end, Jon Heyman of the New York Post provided an update regarding Martinez’s market, suggesting that the Angels, Mariners, Mets and Diamondbacks could be among the teams in play for his services now that he’s unlikely to return to Chavez Ravine. Among that group, only Arizona had previously been connected to the veteran slugger this winter.

The Angels certainly make plenty of sense as a suitor for Martinez now that they know Ohtani won’t be returning to Anaheim in 2024. After all, the club has made it clear they have no plans to launch a rebuild this offseason as the club dismissed speculation that Ohtani’s impending departure could lead to a trade of Mike Trout this offseason. With Ohtani moving on in 2024 and a 2023 record of just 73-89, the club has a lot of work to do if it hopes to compete for a playoff spot next season.

Of course, improved health from the likes of Trout, Logan O’Hoppe and Anthony Rendon could represent internal avenues toward improvement, but it’s hard to imagine the Angels competing without an external offensive addition to help mitigate the loss of Ohtani. Martinez, who slashed .271/.321/.572 with 33 home runs and a 135 wRC+ last season, was outclassed only by Ohtani and Marcell Ozuna among regulars at DH last season and would go a long way toward filling the offensive hole left by Ohtani.

As for the Mariners, the addition of Martinez would surely benefit a lineup that has lost Teoscar Hernandez, Jarred Kelenic, Eugenio Suarez, and Mike Ford this offseason without a clear everyday replacement for any of those bats. What’s more, the club has shed plenty of payroll this offseason and has previously been connected to fellow righty slugger Jorge Soler this offseason. Martinez, 36, posted a stronger offensive season than the 31-year-old Soler in 2023 and could potentially be a more impactful addition to Seattle’s lineup next season.

With that being said, the Mariners have made clear their desire to improve their lineup’s contact skills headed into 2024, and Soler’s 25.7% strikeout rate figures to be much more palatable than Martinez’s 31.4% mark last season. What’s more, while MLBTR projected Soler for a $45MM guarantee that clocks in higher than Martinez’s $40MM figure on our annual Top 50 MLB free agents list, it’s worth noting that Soler’s relative youth could allow him to secure a longer contract than Martinez, which would tamp down the average annual value of the deal and potentially allow the Mariners to more room in their budget for further offensive additions.

The Mets are perhaps the most curious fit for Martinez among the listed teams. While the club received a mediocre 100 wRC+ from their DH slot (the 12th-worst figure in the majors) last season and subsequently parted ways with Daniel Vogelbach at the non-tender deadline last month, it’s worth noting that the club has plenty of young bats such as Mark Vientos and Brett Baty who could command playing time next season and that adding a 36-year-old DH to a club that’s more focused on the future than 2024 may not be the best use of the club’s resources. On the other hand, the only Mets regulars to post above-average seasons by measure of wRC+ last season who will remain with the club in 2024 are Pete Alonso, Francisco Lindor, and Brandon Nimmo. Adding the bat of Martinez to the middle of the club’s lineup next season would add some much-needed offensive firepower and help the club compete in what is shaping up to be the final year before Alonso heads into free agency next winter.

Thomas Hatch, Taylor Hearn Reportedly Sign With NPB’s Hiroshima Carp

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The Hiroshima Carp of Japan’s NPB have signed a pair of hurlers who pitched in the majors this past season. According to Yahoo Japan (Japanese language link), the Carp have agreed to deals with left-hander Taylor Hearn and right-hander Thomas Hatch. The report indicates Hiroshima’s agreement with Hearn is worth $900K in total, while Hatch’s deal is reportedly worth a total of $1.3MM. Hatch was released by the Pirates late last month and was initially expected to sign with the Nippon-Ham Fighters prior to landing a deal with the Carp. Hearn, on the other hand, elected free agency back in October.

Hearn, 29, made his big league debut back in 2019 with the Rangers and spent parts of five seasons in the majors with the club, pitching to a 5.11 ERA and 4.45 FIP during that time. From 2021-22, Hearn occupied a swing role with Texas, pitching both as a member of the starting rotation and out of the bullpen throughout the two campaigns. Those two seasons accounted for a 204 1/3 of Hearn’s career 229 innings of work for the Rangers and both campaigns saw him post strong numbers out of the bullpen, with ERAs of 3.54 and 3.51 respectively. Unfortunately, that success didn’t translate over in his limited time as a full-time reliever during the 2023 season, where he struggled to a 11.40 ERA in 15 innings of work while splitting time between the Rangers, Royals, and Braves organizations. Looking ahead to 2024, Hearn figures to have the opportunity to pitch in a full-time relief role on a regular basis with the Carp.

Hatch, 29, has found more big league success during his career than Hearn. A third-round pick by the Cubs in the 2016 draft, Hatch made his big league debut with the Blue Jays during the shortened 2020 season and impressed in his first taste of big league action with a 2.73 ERA in 26 1/3 innings of work. Things came off the rails a bit for Hatch the following two seasons, however, as he pitched just 14 innings in the majors with a 10.93 ERA. He got a more extensive opportunity in the majors in 2023, however, and did reasonably well with it. Across 28 2/3 innings of work with the Blue Jays and Pirates, Hatch posted a solid 4.08 ERA with a strong 52.3% groundball rate and a respectable 20.2% strikeout rate. Those decent results and promising peripherals surely made Hatch an attractive target for Hiroshima, and he’ll now join Hearn on the Carp pitching staff in 2024.

Steven Brault Announces Retirement

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Left-hander Steven Brault has retired, as he announced on his personal Instagram page last month. A veteran of seven MLB seasons, Brault spent almost his entire major league career as a member of the Pirates. According to a recent report by Jason Mackey of the Pittsburgh Post Gazette, Brault has his sights set on a second act in broadcasting now that his playing career has come to a close.

“I cannot possibly describe what it feels like to achieve a childhood dream,” Brault wrote in his announcement,  “Playing Major League Baseball was everything I could have ever imagined and so much more… I may be retiring from playing, but I plan to continue in this game for life. Baseball is my passion, and I plan on sharing that passion with the world. ”

Drafted by the Orioles in the 11th round of the 2013 draft, Brault was acquired by the Pirates as the player to be named later in the deal that sent outfielder Travis Snider to the Orioles back in January 2015. Brault made his major league debut for the Pirates the following year and served as a swingman while shuttling between the majors and Triple-A from 2016 to 2017. In those first two years of his big league career, Brault posted roughly league average results, with a 4.76 ERA and 4.70 FIP in 68 innings of work.

In 2018, Brault got his first chance to stick on the major league roster, pitching to a 4.61 ERA (85 ERA+) in 91 2/3 innings of work primarily as a multi-inning reliever out of the Pittsburgh bullpen. While Brault held his own in his first full-season taste of big league action, his effectiveness was limited by control issues that saw him issue free passes to 13.8% of batters faced while striking out just 19.9%.

Brault’s role shifted again in 2019, as he began to pitch primarily as a member of the starting rotation. Brault posted a 5.16 ERA during the 2019 campaign that was virtually identical to his previous season by measure of ERA+ (84), but he eclipsed 100 innings for the first (and only time) in his career and posted more solid numbers when looking exclusively at his 19 starts that season. In 95  2/3 innings of work as a starter in 2019, Brault posted a 4.99 ERA with a walk rate under 10% while striking out 20.1% of batters faced.

The shortened 2020 campaign was by far the strongest of Brault’s career. Pitching almost exclusively as a member of the rotation, he posted a strong 3.38 ERA, 34% better than league average by measure of ERA+, with a 3.92 FIP and a career-best 21.3% strikeout rate in 42 2/3 innings of work. Unfortunately for Brault, he’d be left unable to build upon his strong campaign during the shortened season the following year as he was limited to just seven appearances due to a recurring left lat strain that saw him make his first start of the season in August before prompting returning to the injured list in September.

Brault’s injury woes led the Pirates to designate the lefty for assignment following the 2021 campaign, at which point Brault caught on with the Cubs on a minor league deal. Brault once again battled injury issues early in the season but managed to make his debut with the big league Cubs on the Fourth of July. He would ultimately make nine appearances in short relief for the Cubs, posting a 3.00 ERA and 3.33 FIP with a 20.5% strikeout rate before a shoulder strain ended his season.

Entering 2023, Brault caught on with the Spire City Ghost Hounds of the independent Atlantic League, though he did so as an outfielder, not as a pitcher. Brault had hit well during his college days with a .971 OPS in 199 trips to the plate, and was one of the better hitting pitchers in the majors as well, with a career .258/.275/.337 slash line in 101 major league plate appearances. Brault’s stint with the Ghost Hounds ultimately lasted 58 games, during which he slashed a solid .283/.327/.465 with an 18% walk rate in 200 plate appearances.

Ultimately, Brault ended his big league career having posted a 4.73 ERA and 4.64 FIP with 299 strikeouts in 352 1/3 innings of work. Those of us at MLBTR would like to congratulate Brault on his playing career and wish him all the best in his post-playing endeavors.

Roki Sasaki Asks To Be Posted For MLB Teams, Chiba Lotte Marines Likely To Deny Request

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Japanese pitching sensation Roki Sasaki has asked the Chiba Lotte Marines to make him available to MLB teams via the posting system this winter, according to Sponichi Annex (Japanese language link from Yahoo Japan).  Nippon Professional Baseball teams have until December 15 to post players for possible moves to Major League Baseball in advance of the 2024 season, and this brief timeline alone makes it highly unlikely that the Marines will grant Sasaki’s request.

In the broader picture, it is quite rare for Japanese players to ask to be posted so early in their careers, as the 22-year-old Sasaki has only played three seasons in NPB.  As per MLB’s posting rules, players must be at least 25 years and have at least six pro seasons under their belt in order to receive anything more than a minor league contract.  Big league clubs could also only pay such players money from their international bonus pools, and with this year’s international signing window yet to open on January 15, teams have long since committed the bulk of their pool money to prospects.  Shohei Ohtani faced these restrictions when he came to the majors at age 23, and thus received only a minors deal from the Angels and a $2.3MM signing bonus.

Jorge Castillo and Jack Harris of the Los Angeles Times profiled Sasaki last month, noting that Sasaki’s contract with the Marines “is thought to” have an escape clause that would allow the righty to leave for the majors at any time.  Ohtani enacted such a clause in 2017, though Ohtani had played five seasons with the Hokkaido Nippon-Ham Fighters.

The Sponichi article didn’t give any mention about such a contractual opt-out, though the unusual timing of Sasaki’s request perhaps does indicate that he has some leverage to take this rather immediate plunge into the posting system.  Castillo/Harris wrote that the Dodgers, Padres, and Giants have all “intensely scouted” Sasaki in Japan, and at one point, the Dodgers thought that Sasaki would be available as early as this offseason.

Sasaki wouldn’t achieve full free agency until he has nine seasons of service time, and in general, NPB teams don’t post players early until they’re a year or two away from that nine-season threshold.  For instance, Yoshinobu Yamamoto played seven seasons with the Orix Buffaloes before the Buffaloes agreed to post the star righty this winter, and the 25-year-old Yamamoto now looks poised to command a contract well north of $200MM.

Yamamoto’s combination of youth and skill has all but guaranteed a huge contract, yet even his number could pale in comparison to what Sasaki might receive.  Though he would seemingly be limited to a minor league deal at first and would have to wait at least a few seasons into an MLB career to sign an extension without drawing attention from the league office, that might be a risk Sasaki is willing to take given the potential huge payoff down the road.  In the interim, he won’t be lacking in compensation, since a jump to the majors would surely boost his endorsement appeal.

Over 283 2/3 career innings with the Marines, Sasaki has a 2.00 ERA, 34.4% strikeout rate, and 5.12% walk rate, and these video-game numbers are only part of Sasaki’s burgeoning legend.  His fastball routinely sits in the upper-90s and has topped out at 102.5mph, and his forkball is arguably an even deadlier pitch.  Sasaki’s pitched well for Japan’s gold medal-winning team at the 2023 World Baseball Classic, and he has two NPB All-Star appearances on his resume.  Most famously, Sasaki came within an inning of back-to-back perfect games — he tossed a perfecto against the Buffaloes in April 2022 that saw him record 13 straight strikeouts amidst an NPB-record 19 K’s in his masterpiece of a start.  Incredibly, Sasaki followed that up with eight perfect innings in his next outing before being pulled before the start of the ninth due to pitch count reasons (102 pitches).

The Marines’ desire to preserve Sasaki’s arm and overall health has been a main storyline of his career.  He was the first overall pick of the 2019 NPB draft, yet he didn’t make his debut with Chiba until May 2021, as the team wanted to ease his development into pro ball.  Sasaki missed about six weeks this season due to an oblique strain, limiting him to 91 innings for the 2023 campaign.  As MLB’s Dai Takegami Podziewski noted in his last installment of the NPB Players To Watch feature, durability is basically the last question Sasaki has to really answer about his long-term potential, and the righty’s 6’4″, 203-pound frame would suggest that he is perhaps built to hold up under the larger workloads faced by Major League pitchers.

While it remains to be seen if Sasaki will actually be able to enter the 2023-24 free agent market, it would obviously be a game changer in a winter that already has a lot of high-end starters still on the board.  If nothing else, Sasaki’s request might well be setting a stage for a posting next winter, when he could join another loaded pitching class that might include Corbin Burnes, Max Fried, Walker Buehler, Shane Bieber, Tyler Glasnow, Max Scherzer, Justin Verlander, and possibly even Gerrit Cole if the Yankees don’t enact a contract clause preventing Cole from opting out.

Junior Fernandez Signs With NPB’s Chiba Lotte Marines

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The Chiba Lotte Marines announced (Japanese language link) the signing of right-hander Junior Fernandez.  The move to Nippon Professional Baseball comes after Fernandez elected minor league free agency following a 2023 season spent with the Triple-A affiliates of the Blue Jays and Nationals.

An international signing for the Cardinals in 2014, Fernandez spent his entire career in the St. Louis season until September 2022, and he has since bounced around to four different MLB teams before now heading to the Marines.  The Pirates claimed Fernandez off waivers in September 2022 and the Yankees and Jays then added the righty on subsequent waiver claims during that offseason.  Toronto released Fernandez in August, and he then caught on with the Nats on a minor league contract.

Fernandez has a 5.17 ERA over 54 career MLB innings with St. Louis and Pittsburgh from 2019-22, seeing at least some big league action in each of those four seasons.  He posted a hefty 13.9% walk rate while striking out only 18.7% of batters.  Fernandez became a full-time reliever in 2018 and has since shown some flashes of improved strikeout ability, as well as a pretty steady ability to generate grounders.  However, walks have been an issue, as Fernandez has had trouble fully controlling a pitch repertoire that includes a 98.7mph sinker.

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