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Twins Getting Trade Interest In Jorge Polanco, Max Kepler

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Infielder Jorge Polanco and right fielder Max Kepler “are the two Twins players drawing the most interest on the trade market,” sources tell Bobby Nightengale of the Minneapolis Star Tribune.  With Polanco in particular, MLB Network’s Jon Morosi adds that the former All-Star’s market has “increased” within the last week.

It doesn’t appear as though a deal might be particularly close for either player, as the Twins are one of several teams whose winter business has been somewhat stalled by the logjam at the top of the free agent market.  As Minnesota PBO Derek Falvey told Nightengale and other reporters at the Winter Meetings, “what we continue to hear on the trade front…is ’Hey, we have interest in some of your players.  We’d like to talk about these guys, but we have to wait on a few other things to happen,’ or free agent discussions to come to pass.  When that happens, you’re constantly waiting to some degree.”

Trade winds have swirled around Polanco and Kepler even before the offseason began, and that speculation even before Favley said last month that the Twins were going to reduce their payroll for 2024.  It is worth noting that the Twins might’ve been able to make those cuts simply by not retaining Polanco or Kepler for the next season, though the team opted to exercise club options on both players (Polanco for $10.5MM, Kepler for $10MM) rather than just lose them for nothing.

With some level of trade interest brewing, it would appear as through Minnesota’s front office made the right decision.  Obviously it remains to be seen if either player will be dealt at all, or what a return might be for either solid-but-unspectacular veteran.  Kepler also has only one year of control remaining, while Polanco can be controlled through the 2025 season via another club option ($12MM with a $750K buyout).

A case can be made that the Twins could or retain both Polanco and Kepler given how the team has battled injuries (including some missed time for these two themselves) over the last two seasons, yet Minnesota does appear to have something of a surplus around the diamond.  With Royce Lewis and Edouard Julien emerging last season, third base and second base might now be covered, leaving Polanco without an obvious starting position since Carlos Correa naturally has Polanco’s old shortstop spot covered.  Matt Wallner, Nick Gordon, and Trevor Larnach are all left-handed hitting outfield options, so Kepler might be a bit of an expendable piece.

Perhaps ideally, Minnesota would prefer to trade utilityman Kyle Farmer (and his $6.6MM projected arbitration salary) rather than Polanco or Kepler.  That said, rival teams would likewise be more willing to give up a notable return to land an everyday type of commodity rather than Farmer, who is maybe best suited for a part-time role.  Since center field, first base, and the rotation are all target areas for the Twins this winter, they might have no choice but to move at least one of Polanco and Kepler to thread of needle of upgrading the roster while also reducing payroll at the same time.

Bryce Harper Interested In Extension With Phillies

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After some speculation over the last few weeks that Bryce Harper was interested in extending his deal with the Phillies, agent Scott Boras confirmed the matter when speaking with reporters (including Scott Lauber of the Philadelphia Inquirer) at the Winter Meetings.

“Bryce has let me know that he wants to work out an extension so that he knows that he’s going to be there for the remainder of his career….Apart from my advice, he goes, ’I just want to go and make sure that I can recruit players to Philadelphia.  I want the fans in Philadelphia to know that I’m going to be there for the duration and that I’m committed.’  I think he’s been an important voice for them to attract major free agents and other players,” Boras said.

Harper is still not even halfway through the 13-year, $330MM contract he signed with the Phillies as a free agent during the 2018-19 offseason.  At the time of the signing, Harper’s contract was the most expensive in baseball history, and it still ranks seventh all-time in terms of total dollars.  In terms of average annual value, however, Harper’s deal doesn’t crack the top 40 all time, as he is making a relatively (in a very broad sense) modest AAV of just under $25.4MM per season.  In terms of actual dollars, Harper is still owed $196MM through the 2031 season.

The deal was a straight 13-year pact without any opt-outs or club option years, which was by design.  At the time of the signing, Harper stressed that he wanted long-term security for the rest of his career, so he could focus on baseball without having to worry about any future changes of scenery or upcoming trips to free agency.  This dovetailed with the Phillies’ desire to add premium talent while also keeping costs (again) relatively in check in terms of the luxury tax.  With Harper’s money spread out over a longer term, that $25.4MM AAV puts less of a hit on Philadelphia’s annual luxury tax bill.

Since the Phillies have exceeded the tax threshold in each of the last two seasons, the AAV benefits of Harper’s contract are perhaps even more important to the Phillies now than it was at the time of Harper’s signing in February 2019.  On paper, this gives the team little reason to consider extending a player who is already locked up through his age-38 season.  Even if the Phils are open to indeed retaining Harper into his 40’s, it makes sense for the club to wait at least a few more years to monitor any signs of decline in Harper’s play.

In addition, Harper is also coming off two seasons hampered by injuries and defensive limitations, as a UCL tear and subsequent Tommy John surgery limited Harper to DH-only duty and then some time at first base over the 2022-23 seasons.  Though Harper is now apparently healthy enough to resume right field duties, Philadelphia will instead use him as the everyday first baseman in at least 2024, allowing the Phillies to both address a first base need and to get more at-bats in the outfield for such players as Brandon Marsh, Johan Rojas, and Cristian Pache.

Even with these injuries clouding the picture, Harper is still unquestionably a force at the plate.  He has hit .284/.395/.536 over 2497 plate appearances in a Phillies uniform, as well as a whopping 1.137 OPS over 126 PA in the postseason.  Harper was the NL MVP in 2021, and he helped lead the Phillies end their playoff drought with a World Series appearance in 2022, and then a trip to Game Seven of the NLCS in 2023.

If Harper was a free agent now entering his age-31 season, would he land more than eight years and $196MM?  The answer certainly would appear to be yes, as Harper’s mighty bat might very well outweigh any concerns over his long-term health or defensive future.  Speculatively, if security is still Harper’s focus more than pure money, the Phillies could float an extension that adds a couple of years to Harper’s contract at a lesser AAV, or perhaps a restructured deal entirely that lengthens the contract but lowers the Phils’ annual tax hit even further.

Reports: Ohtani Still Undecided On Next Club

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Free agent Shohei Ohtani has not made a decision on his next club, per reports from Ben Nicholson-Smith and Shi Davidi of Sportsnet and Alden Gonzalez of ESPN and others. Earlier today, a report from J.P. Hoornstra of Dodgers Nation relayed that the two-way superstar would be signing with the Blue Jays, though nothing has been made official as of yet. Ohtani was reported to be en route to Toronto by Jon Morosi of MLB.com, though Bob Nightengale of USA Today reports that Ohtani is at home in Southern California. Morosi has since retracted the report about Ohtani traveling to Toronto.

Ohtani’s free agency has been shrouded in secrecy by design, with the player and his reps preferring to keep the proceedings as private as possible. Recent reports have pegged the Jays, Dodgers, Giants, Angels and Cubs the finalists, though most of those clubs were hesitant to even admit they were involved, given Ohtani’s wishes. Blue Jays general manager Ross Atkins spoke with reporters via Zoom during the Winter Meetings and would not divulge where he was. Later reporting from Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic indicated that it was “believed” that Ohtani met with the Jays at their facilities in Dunedin, Florida at that time. There were also “rumblings” that Ohtani met with the Giants at Oracle Park, per Susan Slusser of The San Francisco Chronicle.

Dodgers manager Dave Roberts broke through this cone of silence earlier this week, frankly admitting that his club had recently met with Ohtani and identified him as a “top priority.” Many wondered if this plain-spoken approach would harm the Dodgers’ chances of signing Ohtani, given his clear desire for privacy. But Hoornstra reports it’s not believed that had any role in Ohtani’s choice, even a choice has even been made.

All of this has made it very difficult to secure concrete information about Ohtani’s market and what sort of discussions he was having with his suitors, though Morosi reported this morning that a decision was “imminent” and could be announced as soon as today.

Red Sox Acquire Tyler O’Neill

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The Red Sox brought in outfield help on Friday night, announcing the acquisition of outfielder Tyler O’Neill from the Cardinals. Right-handers Nick Robertson and Victor Santos are going back to St. Louis.

O’Neill, 29 in June, has had a mercurial career but showed his tremendous ceiling as recently as 2021. He played 138 games that season, hitting 34 home runs. He struck out at a high 31.3% clip but hit .286/.352/.560 overall for a wRC+ of 143. He also received strong grades for his outfield defense and stole 15 bases. That all-around production led to a tally of 5.5 wins above replacement, per FanGraphs, whereas Baseball Reference had him at 6.1 WAR.

But the results since then have been less impressive, with injuries seeming to drag him down. In the past two seasons, O’Neill has hit the injured list due to a right shoulder impingement, a left hamstring strain, a lower back strain and a right foot sprain. He’s been able to get into just 168 games over those two campaigns, hitting 23 home runs and producing a batting line of .229/.310/.397. That amounts to a wRC+ of 98, indicating he’s been just a bit below league average.

It appeared that he had fallen out of favor in St. Louis over that time. In early 2023, he and manager Oli Marmol got in a bit of a spat, where the skipper publicly admonished O’Neill for a perceived lack of hustle. Though the outfielder pushed back on the idea that he wasn’t giving full effort and also seemed displeased with Marmol making the disagreement public.

As the Cardinals fell out of contention during the most recent season, it seemed as though O’Neill could have been traded at the deadline a few months ago, since he’s slated for free agency after 2024. But no deal materialized and he stuck with the club into the current offseason. In recent weeks, trade rumors surfaced and president of baseball operations John Mozeliak did little to quell them. “In the outfield, right now, if we were to play tomorrow it’d likely be [Lars Nootbaar], Tommy Edman and [Jordan Walker],” said Mozeliak during the Winter Meetings earlier this week. “Our fourth outfielder would be Dylan Carlson. … Tyler O’Neill is somebody that we are listening to on trades.”

But for the Red Sox, O’Neill makes plenty of sense. After they traded Alex Verdugo earlier this week, their outfield projects to have lefties Masataka Yoshida, Jarren Duran and Wilyer Abreu. The club also has righties Ceddanne Rafaela and Rob Refsnyder, but the former has just 28 games of experience while the latter is a platoon specialist. Chief baseball officer Craig Breslow recently spoke about how the club would like to add a right-handed hitter capable of playing center field, but that it wouldn’t be a need.

O’Neill does indeed hit from the right side and has played some center field, having logged 303 2/3 innings there over 40 games in his career. The defensive reviews are mixed but it’s hard to glean much in such a small sample.

He will likely not be Plan A in center anyhow. Per a report from Jen McCaffrey and Chad Jennings of The Athletic this week, the club considers Rafaela a viable center field option. Even if he were to struggle in his first extended stretch of play in the big leagues, Duran has spent plenty of time up the middle and Abreu has seen action there as well. But all told, he balances the mix and will be a low-cost upside play for the Sox.

As mentioned, O’Neill is slated for free agency after 2024. Per MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz, he’s projected for a salary of just $5.5MM next year before reaching the open market. If he gets back to his 2021 upside, he would be a bargain and could help the club return to contention or perhaps turn into a midseason trade chip if the Sox are out of the race. If he continues to struggle, he can yield playing time to Duran, Rafaela or Abreu, depending on who is performing well.

The Cardinals came into this offseason with a notable position player surplus. Mozeliak outlined the outfield situation, which also includes players like Alec Burleson and Richie Palacios. But they also have Nolan Arenado and Paul Goldschmidt on the infield corners. Up the middle, they have Masyn Winn, Nolan Gorman and Brendan Donovan as potential options.

It was thought that they would use this surplus to add their rotation, where they were looking to add three arms. But they rather quickly signed Sonny Gray, Lance Lynn and Kyle Gibson to bolster their starting group. That led to recent speculation that an eventual position player trade would return bullpen help or prospects.

Robertson, 25, was drafted by the Dodgers and added to that club’s 40-man roster earlier this year, but he was flipped to Boston as part of the Enrique Hernández trade from a few months ago. He has 22 1/3 innings of MLB experience between the two clubs with an earned run average of 6.04, though with more encouraging peripherals. He struck out 24.5% of batters faced while walking 8.5% and getting grounders at a 47.1% clip. His .397 batting average on balls in play and 57.5% strand rate were both on the unlucky side of average, leading to a 3.88 FIP and 3.76 SIERA.

He was even better in the minors, having tossed 42 2/3 Triple-A innings between the two clubs with a 3.16 ERA, 33.1% strikeout rate and 7.4% walk rate. He still has a couple of options, so the Cards don’t need to commit an active roster spot to him right away, but he’s already had some MLB experience and could potentially be part of their club in the coming season.

Santos, 23, has mostly been a starter in the minors but hasn’t ever really been a top prospect, though he has received plaudits for his command. He tossed 145 innings in 2022, split between Double-A and Triple-A with a 4.97 ERA. His 20.6% strikeout rate was a bit below average but his 5.6% walk rate was quite strong. He didn’t pitch in 2023 because of injury. He’ll provide the Cards with a bit of non-roster depth for their starting staff.

Jon Heyman of the New York Post first reported O’Neill was being traded to Boston. Sean McAdam of MassLive reported that St. Louis would receive two minor leaguers. Alex Speier of the Boston Globe reported that Robertson and Santos were going to the Cardinals.

Braves Acquire Max Stassi, David Fletcher

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The Braves and Angels have lined up a swap of change-of-scenery candidates. Atlanta announced the acquisition of infielder David Fletcher and catcher Max Stassi for minor league first baseman Evan White and reliever Tyler Thomas. The Braves’ 40-man roster count is up to 36; the Halos will be at 39 once they finalize one-year free agent deals for Luis García and Adam Cimber.

It’s an odd fit for the Braves, who aren’t in need of catching help. Atlanta has Sean Murphy as their starter and re-signed Travis d’Arnaud to an $8MM deal to work as the backup. Stassi gives them a third experienced, fairly highly-priced catcher. Since it’s unlikely they’d want to carry all three — none of whom can be sent to the minor leagues — Mark Bowman of MLB.com tweets that they plan to flip Stassi elsewhere.

Atlanta has already moved a trio of players whom they’d acquired in previous offseason trades. Right-hander Jackson Kowar, added from the Royals for Kyle Wright, went to the Mariners in the deal that brought in Jarred Kelenic. As part of the Kelenic trade, the Braves agreed to take on salary on the underwater contracts for left-hander Marco Gonzales and White. Gonzales was dealt to the Pirates for a minimal return on Tuesday, while White is now himself shipped away in this swap with the Angels.

Now they’ll try to move Stassi, who is under contract for $7MM next season. He’s also guaranteed a $500K buyout on a $7.5MM team option for the 2025 campaign. The Halos had signed him to an extension on the heels of a combined .250/.333/.452 showing between 2020-21. That contract didn’t work as the organization envisioned. Stassi slumped to a .180/.267/.303 line over a personal-high 375 plate appearances in 2022.

The 32-year-old didn’t appear at all in 2023. Stassi began the season on the injured list with a left hip strain. While he recovered from the hip issue midseason, he remained away from the team to attend to a family issue. After the season, Stassi and his wife Gabrielle revealed their son had been born three months prematurely in mid-April and had spent the past few months in NICU. In November, Angels GM Perry Minasian told reporters that Stassi was planning to play in 2024 (link via Jeff Fletcher of the Orange County Register).

In the season’s final month, the Angels had placed Stassi on the restricted list. That ensured he wouldn’t be paid for the last few weeks as part of the organization’s ultimately successful effort to limbo below the luxury tax line. There’s no public indication that affected the franchise’s relationship with Stassi, but he also seemed an arguably superfluous part of the roster. Logan O’Hoppe has emerged as the top option behind the plate with Matt Thaiss backing him up.

Fletcher likewise signed an extension that hasn’t panned out. The glove-first infielder inked a $26MM guarantee in April 2021. At the time, the Angels envisioned him as a long-term starter at second base thanks to a strong showing in the shortened 2020 season. That looks like an anomaly, as Fletcher’s offense has evaporated in the three years since then. Going back to the start of the ’21 campaign, he’s a .259/.296/.327 hitter.

The Angels twice ran Fletcher through waivers this year. He played in only 33 MLB games while getting into 85 contests at Triple-A Salt Lake. Fletcher made a ton of contact with minimal power impact at the top minor league level, hitting .330/.382/.428 with a microscopic 6.3% strikeout rate across 380 plate appearances.

Fletcher will make $6MM next season, is guaranteed $6.5MM in 2025 and will take home at least a $1.5MM buyout on a ’26 club option. That’s well above what he’d have received were he a free agent this offseason. He’s a plus defender at each of second base, shortstop and third base. For the Braves, he’ll serve as utility infield depth behind Ozzie Albies, Orlando Arcia and Austin Riley. It’s a role that had been played by Nicky Lopez in the second half of last season, but Atlanta packaged him in the Aaron Bummer trade with the White Sox.

It’s strictly a financial move for the Angels, who also clear two spots on their 40-man roster. White had been a highly-regarded prospect during his time with the Mariners. Seattle signed him to an extension before his MLB debut. That didn’t work, as the righty-hitting first baseman turned in a .165/.235/.308 line in 84 big league games between 2020-21. White hasn’t played in the majors in two years and has barely played in Triple-A because of various injuries, including multiple surgeries on his left hip.

Atlanta passed White through waivers just yesterday. The Angels will take on the remainder of his contract: $7MM next season, $8MM in 2025 and a $2MM buyout on a ’26 club option. He’ll likely start next season in Salt Lake.

Thomas is a left-handed pitcher who turns 28 in a few weeks. The Braves had just selected him in the minor league phase of the Rule 5 draft out of the Mets organization. The Fresno State product has appeared in parts of six minor league seasons. He has a 4.30 ERA over 130 2/3 career innings at Double-A with scant experience at the Triple-A level.

The Braves agree to take on an extra $6MM next season, while the Halos are assuming an additional $1.5MM between 2025-26. Atlanta is also assuming $6MM in luxury tax obligations for the upcoming season. A traded player’s luxury tax number is recalculated as the average annual value of what remains on their contract at the time of the trade (including option buyouts). Stassi is guaranteed $7.5MM for one season, while the remaining $14MM over two years on Fletcher’s deal is a $7MM average value. White is due $17MM over two seasons, an $8.5MM annual hit. There’s a $6MM gap between the $14.5MM which Atlanta is assuming versus the $8.5MM they’re shipping out.

Jeff Passan of ESPN first reported the terms of the trade.

Images courtesy of USA Today Sports.

Latest On Orioles’ Ownership, Lease Situations

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One of yesterday’s top stories was a Bloomberg report that private equity mogul David Rubenstein had been in contact with the Angelos family about purchasing some portion of the Orioles. It comes at a time of ongoing uncertainty about the franchise’s lease at Camden Yards, which runs through December 31.

In late September, the Orioles and the Maryland governor’s office jointly announced a non-binding memorandum of understanding that would, if approved, extend the Camden Yards lease by 30 years. As part of that framework, the O’s would receive a 99-year development rights agreement to build around the stadium with visions of a ballpark village.

That latter aspect has found some pushback in the state legislature. Rubenstein’s reported discussions about the franchise only made the situation more complex. State senator Bill Ferguson released a statement on Friday afternoon expressing opposition to the memorandum.

“Fundamentally, I believe that the long-term lease for the use of the ballpark should not be conditioned on whether or not a private owner receives a 99-year ground lease to develop land owned by Maryland taxpayers. This is more relevant today, as recent news has heightened uncertainties about the future ownership of the team,” Ferguson said (via the Associated Press).

Jeff Barker, Hayes Gardner and Emily Opilo of the Baltimore Sun write that while the governor’s office and the Orioles had reached a tentative 30-year lease agreement, the governor has put that on hold in response to Ferguson’s comments. According to the Sun, the governor’s office had been briefing elected officials about the framework of the lease agreement as recently as this morning. Once Ferguson made his statement in the afternoon, the governor’s office reversed course and halted the deal. Neither the governor nor the Orioles made any public announcement.

Whether Ferguson would have intervened if not for the reported discussions between Rubenstein and the Angelos family isn’t clear. (The Sun notes that Ferguson had expressed opposition to giving the O’s land development rights as far as back as August.) Still, it seems the Bloomberg report played some role in the renewed opposition. Andy Kostka and Pamela Wood of The Baltimore Banner write that Ferguson’s concerns were heightened by the possibility of an ownership change.

To that end, the Angelos family has sought to downplay that possibility. Kostka and Wood report that O’s chairman John Angelos spoke with Maryland governor Wes Moore on Thursday night and reassured him the family had no plans to sell a majority stake in the franchise. The Sun observes that the Angelos family would be subject to notable capital gains taxes if they sell while longtime owner Peter Angelos, 94, remains alive.

The respective reports from The Sun and The Banner contain myriad details about the lease framework that seemed to be in place before the governor’s office’s change of heart. Next steps aren’t entirely clear, but it stands to reason the sides will act quickly to try to modify the agreement to overcome the legislature’s objections before year’s end.

Tigers Sign Anthony Bemboom, Brenan Hanifee To Minor League Deals

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The Tigers have agreed to minor league contracts with catcher Anthony Bemboom and right-hander Brenan Hanifee. Ken Rosenthal of the Athletic reported (on X) the Bemboom deal, while Evan Petzold of the Detroit Free-Press reported Hanifee’s signing. Both players will be in camp as non-roster invitees.

Bemboom has spent the past two seasons as a depth catcher with the Orioles. He played in 22 games two seasons back but only got into six contests this summer. The left-handed hitter saw most of his action in Triple-A, where he had a league average .288/.365/.417 batting line through 148 trips to the plate.

The Creighton product has appeared at the big league level in each of the last five years. Bemboom has suited up with the Angels, Rays and Orioles and hit .161/.236/.260 over 82 MLB contests. He has a more impressive .252/.343/.395 slash through parts of seven seasons at the Triple-A level. Bemboom will turn 34 before Opening Day.

Hanifee, 25, made his MLB debut with three outings for the Tigers in September. He worked five innings of three-run ball. A minor league signee going into 2023, he’d pitched in a swing capacity at Triple-A Toledo. Hanifee posted a 4.38 ERA with a modest 20.5% strikeout rate while demonstrating strong control over 90 1/3 innings for the Mud Hens. Detroit non-tendered him at the start of the offseason. He returns to the organization without occupying a 40-man roster spot, which he’ll work to reclaim next spring.

Felix Pena Re-Signs With KBO’s Hanwha Eagles

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The Hanwha Eagles of the Korea Baseball Organization have re-signed righty Félix Peña (h/t to Jeeho Yoo of Yonhap News). The former big leaguer will collect a $200K signing bonus and a $650K salary with an additional $200K available in incentives.

Peña has spent a year and a half in Korea. He first signed with the Eagles midway through the 2022 campaign. After posting a 3.72 ERA down the stretch, he re-signed on an $850K guarantee last winter. Peña was a durable rotation piece for the Eagles, taking the ball 32 times and tossing 177 1/3 innings. He worked to a 3.60 ERA despite a middling 19.6% strikeout rate.

The 6’2″ righty pitched for the Cubs and Angels over an MLB career that spanned 2016-21. His best season came with the Halos in 2018, when he turned in a 4.18 ERA over 92 2/3 innings. Peña has allowed 4.66 earned runs per nine over his 260 2/3 career big league frames. He’ll turn 34 in February.

Giants Agree To Deals With Daulton Jefferies, Yoshi Tsutsugo

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Daulton Jefferies is in agreement on a deal with the Giants, the right-hander announced this morning. Susan Slusser of the San Francisco Chronicle confirms it’s a minor league pact with an invitation to Spring Training. Additionally, Jon Heyman of the New York Post reports that first baseman Yoshi Tsutsugo has agreed to terms with San Francisco (X link). It seems fair to presume that’s also a minor league deal with a non-roster invite.

Jefferies sticks in the Bay Area. A Berkeley product, he was selected by the A’s with the 37th pick of the 2016 draft. Jefferies made his big league debut with one appearance in 2020. He pitched five times the following season and on eight occasions in 2022. In 14 career outings (10 starts), he has worked to a 5.75 ERA through 56 1/3 frames. He has a middling 15.2% strikeout rate while walking fewer than 6% of opponents.

The 28-year-old has lost most of the last two seasons to injury. He underwent thoracic outlet surgery in June 2022 before requiring a Tommy John procedure that September. Oakland ran him through waivers and off the 40-man roster last offseason. Jefferies missed all of last season and elected minor league free agency at year’s end. He’ll get a look in camp with former Oakland skipper Bob Melvin. Jefferies still has an option remaining, so the Giants could freely send him to Triple-A even if he earns a 40-man roster spot.

Tsutsugo, who recently turned 32, spent time in the San Francisco system this year. He signed with the Giants out of independent ball in August, playing in 17 games between Double-A and Triple-A. Tsutsugo, who hit .197/.291/.339 over 640 big league plate appearances from 2020-22, had posted a .249/.380/.432 line with Texas’ top minor league affiliate in the first half of last season.

Royals Exploring Pitching Market, Have Interest In Seth Lugo

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The Royals have been “aggressive” in their search for rotation help this offseason and made an offer to right-hander Sonny Gray before he signed with the Cardinals, reports Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic. Rosenthal further writes that the Royals are among the teams showing strong interest in right-hander Seth Lugo, who’s drawn widespread interest this winter.

Kansas City general manager J.J. Picollo has made no secret about his desire to add to his rotation, plainly stating early in the offseason that “one of our goals is to get starting pitching.” The Royals need at least one arm and could well look to add multiple pieces to the rotation between now and Opening Day. The Royals got a breakout showing from Cole Ragans after acquiring him from the Rangers in exchange for Aroldis Chapman this past summer, and right-hander Brady Singer is likely locked into a rotation spot even after an up-and-down year (and, more broadly, up-and-down big league tenure in terms of performance). Beyond that, the Royals have veteran innings eater Jordan Lyles signed for next season and are surely still hopeful of getting some quality innings from former top prospects Kris Bubic (recovering from Tommy John surgery) and Daniel Lynch.

That said, the Royals have been hoping for the quartet of Singer, Lynch, Bubic and Jackson Kowar to eventually emerge at the MLB level for several seasons. That group comprised the nucleus of a vaunted 2018 crop of college arms around whom the Royals hoped to build, but their development hasn’t panned out. Singer had a brilliant 2022 season and took a step back in 2023. Bubic had Tommy John surgery early in 2023. Kowar has been twice traded this offseason and is now in the Mariners organization.

Rosenthal suggests that in their quest to find rotation upgrades, the Royals have been willing to talk about trades of former top catching/outfield prospect MJ Melendez, infielder Michael Massey and catcher Freddy Fermin. Melendez and Massey, however, are coming off dismal 2023 campaigns. The former is a .227/.314/.396 hitter in 1136 MLB plate appearances and has posted bottom-of-the-scale defensive grades both behind the plate and in the outfield corners. The latter got his first full-time look in ’23 but managed only a .229/.274/.381 slash with mixed defensive ratings (-9 Defensive Runs Saved, +3 Outs Above Average). Both players still have five seasons of remaining club control.

Fermin, meanwhile, looks to be a late-blooming option capable of handling a regular workload behind the dish, be it for the Royals or another club. He entered the 2023 season with just seven MLB plate appearances but wound up tallying 235 trips to the plate with a .281/.321/.461 output and nine home runs. Defensive Runs Saved credited Fermin at a hearty mark of +8, and both FanGraphs and Statcast credited him as an above average framer. Statcast also tabbed Fermin as league-average in terms of blocking balls in the dirt, and his 31% caught-stealing rate checked in 10 percentage points above the league average.

Age and lack of big league track record notwithstanding, there’s plenty of intrigue surrounding Fermin and his breakout rookie season. However, that also makes him quite valuable to a Royals club that has an aging Salvador Perez behind the plate. Perez’s defensive ratings have been in a freefall for the past few seasons, and his production at the plate has also begun to wane. The 33-year-old (34 in May) team captain still smacked 23 home runs last year, but his overall .255/.292/.422 batting line was his weakest since 2018. Perez still caught 91 games last year (against 29 at DH), but at some point the Royals could begin playing him more regularly at DH, which would open time for Fermin. Perez is still signed for another two years at a total of $44MM.

Since Rosenthal reports that Kansas City has spoken with the Marlins and Mariners about pitching-related trades, Miami might stand out as a logical team that could have interest in Fermin’s services.  The Fish are in need of catching help, and seem to be open to the idea of dealing more pitching, after already parting ways with a decent chunk of their rotation depth in other trades over the last couple of years.

As for the team’s free-agent pursuits, Lugo is a sensible and logical target both due to his strong platform season and the fact that the Royals also reportedly had interest in him a year ago. After spending the bulk of his career as a reliever with the Mets, Lugo signed a two-year, $15MM deal with the Padres, who offered him a chance to start and even included an opt-out in the event that he showed well in a starting role.

That’s exactly how things played out. Lugo took the ball 26 times and posted a 3.57 ERA with a 23.2% strikeout rate and 6% walk rate in a career-high 146 1/3 innings. He’s already 34, but Lugo figures to command a much nicer multi-year deal this time around — perhaps reaching three years in length. That the length of his deal will likely be capped due to age should be appealing to the Royals, who typically operate on a tight budget but do have some spending flexibility this winter. Picollo has already said that his club should have at least $30MM to spend.

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