Offseason In Review: Philadelphia Phillies
The Phillies brought in more veterans to supplement an already-aging core, and it is fair to wonder if the club is chasing good money after bad.
Major League Signings
- Carlos Ruiz, C. Three years, $26MM.
- A.J. Burnett, RHP. One year, $16MM. Mutual/player option for 2015.
- Marlon Byrd, OF. Two years, $16MM.
- Roberto Hernandez, RHP. One year, $4.5MM.
- Wil Nieves, C. One year, $1.125MM.
- Total spend: $63.625MM
Notable Minor League Signings
- Bobby Abreu (since released), Brian Bixler, Andres Blanco, Reid Brignac, Shawn Camp, Ronny Cedeno, Chad Gaudin (since released), Tony Gwynn, Jr., Cesar Jimenez, Jeff Manship, Lou Marson (since released), Sean O'Sullivan, Dave Sappelt, Clete Thomas
Trades and Claims
- Acquired RHP Brad Lincoln from Blue Jays in exchange for C Erik Kratz and LHP Rob Rasmussen.
- Acquired IF Jayson Nix from Rays for cash.
- Acquired C Koyie Hill from Nationals for PTBNL or cash.
Extensions
- None
Notable Losses
- Roger Bernadina, Roy Halladay (retired), John Lannan, Michael Martinez, J.C. Ramirez, Joe Savery, Casper Wells
Needs Addressed
Before addressing its roster, the Phillies set about formalizing what had already been expected: namely, that Hall of Famer Ryne Sandberg would take over as the skipper after serving as interim manager for the tail end of 2013. Guaranteeing Sandberg three years, the club made a clear commitment to his efforts to increase the hustle of a veteran-laden ballclub.
In off-the-field matters, the organization wrapped up a substantial new TV deal that figures to provide it $2.5B (and more) in revenue over the next 25 years. As I explained shortly thereafter, that deal should allow the club to maintain its place among the game's highest-revenue clubs, though it does not promise to advance the Phils beyond the other upper-echelon clubs.
Turning to the club's player assets, as I wrote back in October, Philadelphia GM Ruben Amaro Jr. faced a clear set of priorities, in the sense of roster areas where an MLB-ready player was needed. The club entered the offseason in the market for a corner outfielder, catcher, a couple of starters, and perhaps an arm for the bullpen.
Amaro tackled that list head on. He acted quickly to lock up a rejuvenated Byrd to play right field and to re-sign the longtime backstop Ruiz, plugging the two glaring holes in the everyday lineup. Having already decided to tender a contract to starter Kyle Kendrick, Amaro then rounded out the rotation by picking up a bounceback candidate in Hernandez and jumping on the opportunity to sign the aging-but-excellent Burnett. With several minor league signings to build out the team's bench options, the club wrapped up a straightforward offseason that — on its face — addressed most of the team's needs.
Questions Remaining
According to the thinking of Amaro, the big question facing this ballclub is simply the health of key players like Ryan Howard, Jimmy Rollins, and Chase Utley. "If the club we believe is going to break camp is able to stay on the field, we're a contending team," Amaro said. "My job is for us to try to be a contending team every year. Our payroll should allow us to do that. We had a couple of crappy years because we couldn't get guys on the field and couldn't get the performances we're accustomed to. Doc Halladay not being healthy crushed us. It's not his fault. It's just part of the game. When it happens to guys you are counting on with huge contracts, you can't just buy your way out with mediocre players."
But is that really the case? Those three have been relatively healthy over the spring, with each getting at least 46 plate appearances in Grapefruit League action. Other expensive, older players like Ruiz, Byrd, Cliff Lee, and Jonathan Papelbon have not suffered any injury issues, while costly setup man Mike Adams seems to be progressing well in his return from injury.
Nevertheless, questions persist. It remains difficult to see where the team will make up the production deficit that left it only about halfway to the WAR total posted by the lowest-level playoff teams in 2013.
To some extent, the continued uncertainty is due to bad luck, with injuries striking at the portion of the roster that was not considered most susceptible. One of the team's few seemingly sure things, co-ace Cole Hamels, has struggled to get off the ground in the spring. The so-far disappointing Cuban signee Miguel Alfredo Gonzalez, along with important younger arms like Jonathan Pettibone and Ethan Martin, have suffered shoulder problems as well. Various ailments have cropped up amongst some younger bench options like Darin Ruf and Freddy Galvis.
Of course, some share of the blame here must also go to the organization's general lack of depth. While the bullpen looks to be in decent shape, the paper-thin starting depth has left the club looking to O'Sullivan, Manship, and David Buchanan as possible rotation candidates. The bullpen includes out-of-nowhere youngster Mario Hollands. And the team was looking at filling out its bench with names like Abreu (the 40-year-old version) and Brignac (lifetime .221/.262/.311 hitter) before settling on Gwynn and dealing for Nix for the final slots.
Even if the once-great core of Howard, Rollins, Utley, and Ruiz finds the fountain of youth, and even if Byrd and Burnett can somehow maintain their own late-career surges at 37 and 36 years of age, respectively, it still is not clear that this team has the pieces to be a contender. Even the more promising, younger big leaguers have unanswered questions, ranging from Domonic Brown's defense to Ben Revere's ability to get on base.
The real question entering the offseason was never just about the health of guys who once led Philly to a World Series. And it was never about what positions on the field needed additions, which was obvious enough. Instead, the offseason posed the question of how those open slots would be filled.
As I wrote at the outset, the organization appeared to face a tough choice between aggressively buying or aggressively selling. Choosing once again to supplement its veteran core without changing the team's trajectory, I suggested, carried a significant risk of fielding an expensive, injury-prone, low-ceiling ballclub.
The decisions that were ultimately made — adding mostly mid-level free agents in their mid-to-late thirties on relatively short-term deals — carry precisely the risk that I noted. The club is carrying a record payroll. It is already riddled with injuries (and, more importantly, largely lacks the upper-level minor league talent to cover for those injuries), all before those players most susceptible have entered the grind of the season. And projection systems and scouts alike have been down on the Phillies all spring.
One could say that the biggest question for the Phillies in 2014 is whether they can somehow find the fountain of youth that seems necessary to get prime-level production from their many post-prime (albeit still-talented) players. But it may be that the true question facing Philadelphia is simply when it will begin to sell off pieces.
Amaro seems to appreciate that the time may come for a teardown — he said recently that, if the team does not win, he will need to "figur[e] out what's the transition move." But it is eminently arguable both that the team should already have some plan in place, and that the point for action has already been reached. (When asked if he ha a "disaster plan" in place, Amaro said his "thought process is to stay positive," while acknowledging that, "we also can't be so blinded to the fact that if this doesn't work out we're going to have to make some tough decisions.")
To be fair, the Phillies are already said to have tried and failed to move Papelbon and Rollins. The latter has once again become the subject of some trade speculation after apparently landing in Sandberg's just-constructed doghouse. And the trades of Hunter Pence and Shane Victorino show that Amaro is willing to deal away veteran talent. (Of course, those may or may not have been the right pieces to move. In the above-cited piece, Amaro said he would "probably not" handle things differently in retrospect and explained that he believes "they were more solid complementary players than superstars.")
But as things stand, several of the team's contracts seem completely immovable, others would require Philly to eat significant chunks of the future outlay, and virtually all are complicated by the generous no-trade protection that the team included. If Amaro finally comes around to what many observers have suggested — looking to offload some of the club's worst contracts for whatever prospects and/or salary relief he can find — it may be difficult for him to find much value at all in return.
Deal of Note
It is difficult to choose a single deal to highlight, because essentially all of the Phillies' offseason moves seem predicated on roughly the same idea of adding support pieces to an existing core. But the Ruiz deal comes with the most risk (and, in some ways, the most upside). A brief scroll through MLBTR's list of catcher contracts of three or more years reveals that none of those players were anywhere near Ruiz's age (35) when they inked their deals. And Ruiz is coming off of a clear down year, with concerns ranging from health to performance.
But the real issue is not how this deal will look if it does not pan out, but how it will look even if it does. Will the 2016 Phillies have a need for a 37-year-old Ruiz?
The Ruiz contract marries Amaro's commitment to the players most closely tied to the Phils' former glory and his recent tact of spending large but not monumental sums of money on aging complementary pieces. Last year, of course, Adams and Michael Young were the two key additions, along with the younger Revere, with Lannan, Delmon Young, and Chad Durbin all getting guaranteed deals as well. While Byrd and, especially, Burnett are much more significant upgrades, the rest of the roster is all a year older now.
It remains to be seen whether the club can make one or two more runs at glory, but it seems a near certainty that the longer it waits to reload — instead spending cash and adding players to try to field a winner — the more painful that process will be.
Conclusion
It is hard to argue with Amaro's core thesis: "My job is for us to try to be a contending team every year. Our payroll should allow us to do that." Whatever else one may say about the embattled GM, he (and, perhaps more importantly, team ownership) have shown every willingness to plunk down serious coin to deliver a winner. One result, of course, was a great run of division titles and a championship.
But the World Series win came in 2008, and the last division title was had in 2011. The NL East belongs now to the Nationals and Braves, with the Marlins and Mets both showing signs of future health. Philadelphia is caught in the middle, and seems to have ground to make up after only recently delving into modern analytics.
Fortunes can change quickly, of course, and the Phillies have the financial clout to effect a quick turnaround. But what model are they following? Last year's Red Sox had already taken a heavy dose of pain in dealing away their big contracts. This year's Yankees spent an immense amount of money in an effort to buy their way out of their own declining roster logjam, locking up nine players at an average annual value of $16.24MM. Philadelphia signed five players for eight total years at an AAV of just $7.95MM, with the average age of those player-seasons falling just shy of 36.
Until the Phils choose a strategy that offers a clear path forward, the organization faces the risk of a continued slide not only in the standings but also in the attendance rankings. The difficulty, of course, comes in deciding upon that strategy. The Cubs' recent experience shows that a full rebuild can be quite painful, even for a team with resources.
So, what should the Phillies have done this past offseasion and what is the path forward? I won't claim to know the answers to either question. It could be that there is little value to be had in shipping out the team's most undesirable contracts and that the team's recent commitments won't hamstring future spending. But I can't help but feel that a more decisive direction would have better served the club. Trading Lee, Utley, and/or Rollins while foregoing Byrd, Ruiz, and/or Burnett might have brought back some young talent and built up the organizational war chest to be an opportunistic buyer of high-priced, somewhat younger players. Alternatively, adding a longer-term, impactful free agent or two (players like Brian McCann, Shin-Soo Choo, and Matt Garza would have been fits) might have made the team a likelier contender in the near-term. Either way, the club would be headed somewhere; as presently constituted, it seems stuck in neutral while carrying the league's third-highest payroll.
Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.
Phillies Release, Re-Sign Ronny Cedeno
SUNDAY: The Phillies tweeted they have re-signed Cedeno to a minor league deal and have assigned him to Triple-A Lehigh Valley.
TUESDAY: The Phillies have released infielder Ronny Cedeno, the club announced. Cedeno had looked to be a decent bet to make the roster, especially with Freddy Galvis shelved to start the season.
The 31-year-old spent last season with the Padres and Astros, putting up a combined .242/.287/.330 line in 288 plate appearances. It is probably fair to say that is a good approximation of his true talent, as both Cedeno's career line (.246/.289/.354) and his spring line (.182/.250/.273 in 24 plate appearances) are to much the same effect. Defensive metrics have never been big fans of Cedeno's work in the field, and his numbers took a downturn last year. At short, where he spent most of his time, Cedeno was graded at -7.6 UZR and -5 DRS in only 627 2/3 innings.
With the news, the Opening Day odds increase for Cesar Hernandez and Reid Brignac, Matt Gelb of the Philadelphia Inquirer notes on Twitter.
Added To The 40-Man Roster: Saturday
Between now and Opening Day, several minor league signees will win jobs with their clubs and earn 40-man roster spots. Here are today's additions:
- The Angels have purchased the contract of infielder Ian Stewart, Bill Shaikin of the Los Angeles Times tweets. The former top prospect, now 28, was brought in on a minor league contract in January.
- Ryan Rowland-Smith will make the Diamondbacks' Opening Day roster, GM Kevin Towers disclosed (via Steve Gilbert of MLB.com). Rowland-Smith was in camp on a minor league deal. The 31-year-old hasn't pitched in the majors since 2010 but was excellent last year for Boston's Triple-A club.
- The Giants announced that right-hander J.C. Gutierrez and infielder Brandon Hicks have been chosen for the Opening Day roster. Hicks had been competing with rookie Ehire Adrianza for a backup infield job, but both have made the team.
- The Braves announced via press release that pitchers Gus Schlosser and Ian Thomas have been added to the Opening Day roster.
- Reds manager Bryan Price announced that reliever Trevor Bell and outfielder Roger Bernadina have made the club's Opening Day roster, according to a tweet from the team's Triple-A affiliate. Bell hasn't pitched in the majors since 2011, but threw very well this spring in 8 2/3 innings.
- The Mets are set to add Omar Quintanilla to their Opening Day roster, tweets Adam Rubin of ESPNNewYork.com. Quintanilla figures to serve as the back-up at short. He rejoined the club on a minor league deal after being non-tendered.
- Xavier Nady will break camp with the Padres, tweets AJ Cassavell of MLB.com, and thus will be added to the 40-man roster. The 35-year-old had a solid spring, and will fill in while Kyle Blanks and Cameron Maybin work back from injury.
- The Tigers have purchased the contract of Tyler Collins, the club announced. The 23-year-old, left-handed-hitting outfielder has not played above the Double-A level, but now grabs an Opening Day roster spot for a Detroit club that is without Andy Dirks to start the year. In 530 plate appearances at Double-A last year, Collins put up a .240/.323/.438 line with 21 home runs (and 122 strikeouts against 51 walks).
- The Rangers will add minor league free agent Daniel McCutchen to the roster, according to a tweet from his representatives at Sosnick Cobbe Sports. Texas will need to add the reliever to the 40-man roster in order to activate him.
- Yangervis Solarte will make the Yankees Opening Day roster, tweets Bryan Hoch of MLB.com. Fellow utility infielder Eduardo Nunez, meanwhile, will be optioned to Triple-A to start the year. Solarte earned the position after a torrid spring.
- The Phillies have announced their Opening Day roster, which includes three players — Tony Gwynn Jr., Mario Hollands, and Jeff Manship — who must be added to the 40-man. Meanwhile, Miguel Alfredo Gonzalez has been put on the 60-day DL to create roster space while infielder Reid Brignac and reliever Shawn Camp have been reassigned to Triple-A, reports MLB.com's Todd Zolecki (Twitter links).
- The Athletics have selected the contract of infielder Hiroyuki Nakajima and optioned him to Triple-A, according to the MLB transactions page. After failing to see MLB action in the first year of his two-year, $6.5MM deal with Oakland, Nakajima was outrighted and ultimately re-signed to a minor league deal.
Aaron Steen contributed to this post.
NL Notes: Montreal, Phillies, Epstein, Kottaras, Braves
Baseball was back in Montreal yesterday, with the Mets and Blue Jays squaring off at old Olympic Stadium. Of course, its former occupant — the Expos — now plays its games in Washington, DC. It is good to see the ballpark filled once again with fans donning caps featuring the team's classic logo. Jared Diamond and Brian Costa of the Wall Street Journal take a look at the latest on the possibility of baseball landing back in Montreal on a more permanent basis. Here are some notes from the National League:
- The Phillies are easing into their use of analytics, as a supplement to traditional scouting writes Matt Gelb of the Philadelphia Inquirer. But statistical analysis has already informed several decisions, such as the signing of Roberto Hernandez. "Our scouts and our analytics people looked at the middle-of-the-road, back-end starters," said GM Ruben Amaro Jr., "and we felt like he would be a good choice for us." Philadelphia likes his ground-ball rate and believes his sky-high HR/FB% will come back down to earth. The team also hopes to join the trend of utilizing shifts.
- In a lengthy profile of Cubs president of baseball ops Theo Epstein, ESPN The Magazine's Tim Keown writes that the 40-year-old is full of optimism about his organization's direction. One key change in Chicago has been the flow of information, which has been modernized under Epstein's direction. "The currency of the draft is information," Epstein says. "Scouting information, statistical information, makeup information, medical information. In each of those buckets, we have to drill deeper if we want to have an advantage." And while some of the strategic maneuvering to secure draft picks is now no longer possible, Epstein says that does not change the other key input in acquiring young talent. "Now you're left only with how well you can scout," he says. "It's gone from strategy and scouting to just scouting."
- One veteran that the Cubs probably had higher hopes for is catcher George Kottaras, who was released on Wednesday. The 30-year-old has a handful of suitors, tweets Chris Cotillo of MLBDailyDish.com, and is trying to decide on the best opportunity.
- The Braves are not only hoping to do something new with their planned ballpark, by building it in conjunction with a mixed-use development, but will buck the trend of putting new baseball parks downtown, writes Tim Tucker of the Atlanta Journal-Constitution. The piece offers a nice discussion of the preliminary plans, which include designing the park's exterior in a "transparent" manner that will allow it to remain integrated into the overall development project.
Phillies Acquire Jayson Nix From Rays
The Phillies have acquired infielder Jayson Nix from the Rays for cash considerations and have added him to the team's 40-man roster, the club announced. The club further announced that it had informed Reid Brignac that he would not make the club.
Nix, 31, spent last year with the Yankees, taking 303 trips to the plate for New York. He ended up with a .236/.308/.311 triple-slash. In parts of six MLB seasons, Nix has a lifetime .218/.290/.358 line.
Pitching Notes: Hernandez, Cordero, Lewis, Gonzalez
Diamondbacks reliever David Hernandez has a torn UCL and may require Tommy John surgery, Hernandez's agent Jason Hoffman tells FOX Sports' Ken Rosenthal (Twitter link). Hernandez is getting a second opinion but if the original diagnosis is confirmed, the right-hander will miss the entire 2014 season. Since coming to Arizona in December 2010 as part of the Mark Reynolds trade, Hernandez has posted a 3.42 ERA, 3.17 K/BB and 10.8 K/9, though he struggled a bit last season due to an inflated home run rate. Losing Hernandez would further hurt the Arizona pitching staff, which also lost Patrick Corbin to an UCL tear earlier this month.
Here are some more notes about pitchers whose roster status is in question…
- Francisco Cordero has been told by the Red Sox that he isn't making the Opening Day roster, so the veteran reliever is now deciding whether to go to Triple-A Pawtucket or leave for another team, WEEI.com's Alex Speier reports. While Cordero doesn't officially have an opt-out clause in his minor league deal with the Sox, the two sides have an agreement that Cordero would be released if he finds a job elsewhere.
- Colby Lewis can opt out of his minor league deal with the Rangers on April 10, Gerry Fraley of the Dallas Morning News reports. Lewis was brought back on a minors contract after missing the entire 2013 season recovering from hip-resurfacing surgery, and the Rangers have been easing him back into action during Spring Training.
- If the Phillies are in need of another 40-man roster spot, GM Ruben Amaro said that Miguel Alfred Gonzalez could end up on the 60-day DL, Matt Gelb of the Philadelphia Inquirer tweets. Gonzalez was officially placed on the 15-day DL (backdated to March 21) today due to tendinitis in his right shoulder.
Phillies Release Bobby Abreu
The Phillies have released outfielder Bobby Abreu, tweets Jim Salisbury of CSNPhilly.com. Abreu is pursuing an opportunity with another team, Salisbury adds.
The 40-year-old joined the Phillies on a minor league deal after a strong run through the Venezuelan Winter League. He had agreed to push back the date on his opt-out clause with the team to Sunday, but the Phils decided to let him pursue an alternative opportunity after deciding that he would not make the Opening Day roster. Abreu has a .244/.404/.366 line in 52 spring plate appearances, his first in a big league uniform since 2012.
Phillies Notes: Abreu, Izturis, NL East
Here's the latest from the City Of Brotherly Love…
- Bobby Abreu is looking for a Major League opportunity with another team, ESPN's Jayson Stark reports. Abreu was told earlier today that he wasn't going to make the Phillies' Opening Day roster and thus it seems like just a matter of time before Abreu opts out of his minor league deal with the team. The veteran outfielder has until Sunday to do so, as Abreu and the Phils agreed to push his opt-out date to the 31st.
- The Phillies aren't in on Cesar Izturis, CSNPhilly.com's Jim Salisbury reports (via Twitter). Izturis opted out of his minor league deal with the Astros on Monday after being told he wasn't going to make Houston's Opening Day roster. Philadelphia is in the market for a utility infielder who can play shortstop, as Freddy Galvis to a MRSA infection, Kevin Frandsen opted out of his contract after being outrighted and the club released Ronny Cedeno.
- With so many talented young arms filling the major and minor league rotations of the other four NL East teams, "one wonders if the Phillies aren’t years from serious contention," Peter Gammons writes in his latest piece for GammonsDaily.com. The Phillies' thin farm system has put them behind their division rivals in terms of developing young talent, and Gammons feels it will be "a far, far more difficult climb for the Phillies than when they were assembling that extraordinary 2007-2012 team."
Minor Moves: Cunningham, Vizcaino, Moylan, Stutes
We'll keep tabs on the day's minor moves right here:
- The Diamondbacks signed Aaron Cunningham to a minor league deal earlier this week. The 27-year-old outfielder posted a .628 OPS over 501 PA with the Indians, Padres and A's from 2008-12 and spent last season playing with the Rangers' Triple-A affiliate. Cunningham was released by the Cubs two weeks ago after he signed a minor league contract with them in November.
- The Orioles released veteran right-hander Luis Vizcaino from their minor league camp, MASNsports.com's Steve Melewski reports. Vizcaino last appeared in the majors in 2009 and didn't play any professional baseball from 2010-12 before posting a 1.40 ERA over 45 relief innings for Yucatan of the Mexican League in 2013. The O's signed Vizcaino to a minor league deal in January.
- The Astros have released Peter Moylan, the pitcher himself tweets. Last week, it was reported that Moylan had a UCL tear. He was to meet Dr. James Andrews for a second opinion this week. Moylan, 35, pitched 15 1/3 innings for the Dodgers last season. He has a career 2.80 ERA with 6.9 K/9 and 3.9 BB/9 in 276 innings, most of them with the Braves.
- The Phillies have released reliever Michael Stutes, the club announced. Already outrighted off of the club's 40-man roster, Philadelphia has now parted with a once-promising arm at just 27 years of age. After a solid 2011 rookie year in which he threw 62 innings of 3.63 ERA ball, Stutes struggled with arm issues. Last year, he posted a 4.58 ERA with 4.6 K/9 and 4.1 BB/9 in 17 2/3 big league innings.
MLBTR's Mark Polishuk and Charlie Wilmoth also contributed to this post.
Quick Hits: Sanit, Abreu, Carroll
When the Rangers face the Quintana Roo Tigers of the Mexican League in Texas Thursday night, former Yankees hurler Amauri Sanit will be the opposing pitcher. As Gerry Fraley of the Dallas Morning News notes, the 34-year-old left Cuba in 2006, then spent two years in Central America before signing with the Yankees. He signed with the Yankees in 2008, then spent several years making his way through the minors, partially as a closer, before pitching in four games with the Yankees in 2011. He ended up with Quintana Roo in 2012, and after two seasons there, he'll be back in the United States, pitching against a big-league team. Here are more notes from throughout the big leagues.
- The Phillies have announced that veteran outfielder Bobby Abreu will not make their team out of spring training. GM Ruben Amaro says that Abreu is still with the Phillies organization and is "weighing his options," MLB.com's Todd Zolecki tweets. Abreu, 40, hit .263/.429/.395 this spring, but he struggled defensively, and he hasn't appeared in the big leagues since 2012 with the Angels and Dodgers.
- Infielder Jamey Carroll was released by the Nationals yesterday, but the veteran infielder would like to keep playing, Mike Berardino of the St. Paul Pioneer Press tweets. Carroll, 40, hit .211/.267/.251 in 249 plate appearances with the Twins and Royals last season.