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Bill Me Later: Backloaded Multiyear Deals

By Tim Dierkes | December 28, 2010 at 12:19pm CDT

Most multiyear free agent contracts are backloaded to some extent.  For example, Adam Dunn's four-year, $56MM deal has an average annual value of $14MM but pays the player $12MM in 2011.  The White Sox will pay Dunn about 85% of his deal's AAV in the upcoming season, which reflects the average first-year percentage for the 36 multiyear deals signed so far this offseason.

Some teams have opted for a more drastic "bill me later" plan, however.  The biggest example is the Phillies' five-year, $120MM deal with Cliff Lee.  That works out to $24MM a year on average, but they'll pay him only $11MM in 2011 – just 46% of the AAV.  The backloading is accomplished by $25MM salaries in the final three years, plus what appears to be the biggest option buyout ever at $12.5MM.  The deals for A.J. Pierzynski, Jayson Werth, and Orlando Hudson are other examples of heavily backloaded contracts that pay the player less than 70% of the AAV in 2011.  Including part of his signing bonus, Werth will make only $12MM in '11.

Dodgers GM Ned Colletti did some big-time backloading this winter in his three-year deals for Matt Guerrier, Ted Lilly, and Juan Uribe.  Overall the trio will be paid 67% of their AAV in 2011.  Lilly, for example, will make only $7.5MM in 2011 but $12MM in '12 and $13.5MM in '13.

Teams can also pay later by negotiating deferred money into the contract.  This is the case with Derek Jeter, Mariano Rivera, Paul Konerko, and even Carlos Pena's one-year deal.  These deferrals are often without interest, so the team benefits greatly.

Some teams prefer balanced contracts.  Including his signing bonus, the Red Sox are paying Carl Crawford a full $20MM in 2011, almost the same as his AAV.  They didn't backload Bobby Jenks' deal either.  The contracts for Victor Martinez, Aubrey Huff, and Jorge de la Rosa are also spread out evenly. 

Thanks to Cot's Baseball Contracts for contract details.  Click here to download a spreadsheet used to create this post.

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Unfinished Business: NL East

By Tim Dierkes | December 27, 2010 at 2:00pm CDT

The new year is typically when free agent bargains begin, for teams that set a few million bucks aside.  Let's examine the unfinished business for each of the NL East clubs today.

  • Braves: Backup outfielder who can handle center field.  Someone like Dewayne Wise, Scott Hairston, or even Andruw Jones could work within the Braves' limited payroll flexibility.  The Braves will also be seeking a taker for Kenshin Kawakami.
  • Marlins: Left-handed hitting bench bat.  Catcher John Baker is one candidate.  Free agency offers plenty of options – Laynce Nix, Jason Giambi, Joe Inglett, Mark Kotsay, Hank Blalock, Jeremy Hermida, Ryan Church, Casey Kotchman, Gabe Gross, and Jody Gerut, for example.
  • Mets: Starting pitcher, lefty reliever, fourth outfielder.  The Mets will undoubtedly be bargain shopping, and it's not clear whether they'll manage to add Chris Young or Jeff Francis to the rotation.  The market for lefty relievers still features useful, affordable names like Mark Hendrickson and Tim Byrdak.
  • Phillies: Taker for Joe Blanton.  It seems the Phillies' main remaining goal is to unload Blanton's contract.  They could add to the right field mix, but may stick with internal options.
  • Nationals: Starting pitcher, first baseman, reliever.  The Nats remain in the mix for Carl Pavano and Derrek Lee.  Failing those two, they could go in significantly cheaper directions.  Casey Kotchman's name has been mentioned.  Hard to say whether the Nationals are content with Chad Gaudin and Henry Rodriguez as the bullpen additions.
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Atlanta Braves Miami Marlins New York Mets Philadelphia Phillies Washington Nationals

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Cafardo’s Latest: Uggla, Pavano, Matsuzaka, Ellsbury

By Mike Axisa | December 26, 2010 at 10:29am CDT

In today's column, Nick Cafardo of The Boston Globe asked ten baseball people to select the ten most significant moves/non-moves of the offseason. Unsurprisingly, Adrian Gonzalez, Zack Greinke, Carl Crawford, and Cliff Lee topped the list. Here are the rest of Cafardo's rumors…

  • Talks between the Braves and Dan Uggla have slowed because he's seeking more money, but an extension should get done during the first week of January. Cafardo reported that the two sides were close to a five-year deal worth $60-61MM about two weeks ago.
  • The Orioles still have interest in Kevin Gregg and the Red Sox still have interest in Brian Fuentes, but other free agent relievers like Rafael Soriano, Grant Balfour, Octavio Dotel, Aaron Heilman, Manny Delcarmen, Hideki Okajima and Jon Rauch remain in limbo.
  • Carl Pavano is holding out for three years, with the Nationals, Twins, and Rangers still showing interest. Cafardo adds the Mariners to the mix, with the caveat that they free up some money first.
  • The teams considering Pavano could also turn to Joe Blanton, who would certainly come cheaper.
  • The Red Sox "haven’t heard anything close to the value they would need in return" for Daisuke Matsuzaka.
  • The Angels and several other teams made a run at Jacoby Ellsbury this offseason, but the Sox "never heard any offer resembling proper value."
  • Cafardo wonders if Adrian Beltre is looking at a much smaller payday than originally anticipated. Last we heard, the Angels pulled their five-year, $70MM offer to the third baseman, but they remain in the mix to sign him.
  • David Aardsma is still trade bait and the Mariners wouldn't mind moving him for starting pitching depth. Earlier this week we heard Seattle wanted an impact bat for its closer.
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Atlanta Braves Baltimore Orioles Boston Red Sox Los Angeles Angels Minnesota Twins Philadelphia Phillies Seattle Mariners Texas Rangers Washington Nationals Adrian Beltre Brian Fuentes Carl Pavano Daisuke Matsuzaka Dan Uggla David Aardsma Jacoby Ellsbury Joe Blanton Kevin Gregg

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Moyer Still Eyes Comeback After Surgery

By Zachary Links | December 25, 2010 at 4:18pm CDT

Veteran pitcher Jamie Moyer underwent "very successful" Tommy John surgery earlier this month and continues to have his eye on a comeback in 2012.  Moyer, who will be 49 years old when he looks to make his return to the mound, told Larry Stone of The Seattle Times that he'll be willing to compete for a job without a guaranteed deal.

"It may be difficult to find a job at the age of 49," the left-hander said. "Then again, it may not be. I know where I stand: I'll probably get a spring-training invitation, and rightly so. I don't have a problem with that. Throughout my career, I've always had to earn the situation I've been in. I don't expect anyone to give me anything. It's never been that way, so why now?"

Moyer turned in a 4.84 ERA with 5.1 K/9 and 1.6 BB/9 in 19 games with the Phillies last season before elbow trouble ended his season in July.  The changeup artist might play winter ball in the Dominican Republic to gauge where he stands after rehabilitation.  Moyer says he could also decide to spend more time with his family rather than attempt a comeback.  The fact that he seems willing to prove himself once again and presumably take a pay cut could go a long way towards him making another run in the majors.

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Odds & Ends: Yankees, Blanton, Garza, LaRoche

By Mark Polishuk | December 23, 2010 at 11:13pm CDT

This has been a pretty good few months for Giants fans.  Not only did their team end a 56-year World Series drought, but now TV announcers Mike Krukow and Duane Kuiper are close to six-year extensions to continue broadcasting Giants games, reports Henry Schulman of the San Francisco Chronicle.

Onto some other Thursday news…

  • Andrew Marchand of ESPNNewYork.com looks at Hal Steinbrenner's "frugal approach" and how it won't go over well in New York if the Yankees don't win.
  • Andy Pettitte has delayed his retirement decision long enough that if he does choose to return next year, he's already behind on his preseason preparations, observes ESPN.com's Buster Olney.
  • In an MLB.com mailbag, Ian Browne thinks the Red Sox will look to acquire a veteran backup infielder or "a Bill Hall-type who can play the infield and outfield."
  • The Yankees have "had internal chats" about signing Manny Ramirez, tweets Jack Curry of the YES Network.  Curry rates the odds of Ramirez in pinstripes as even slimmer than those of the Yanks signing Johnny Damon, which Curry says "is also unlikely."
  • With the pitching market so thin, baseball sources tell MLB.com's Todd Zolecki that the Phillies shouldn't have any trouble dealing Joe Blanton and might not even have to eat much of the $17MM Blanton is owed through 2012.
  • MLB.com's Alden Gonzalez and Matthew Leach go point/counterpoint on whether or not the Rays should be shopping Matt Garza.
  • Buck Showalter denies reports that the Orioles have made a three-year, $21MM offer to Adam LaRoche, tweets MLB.com's Brittany Ghiroli.
  • ESPN's Keith Law chats with fans about a number of topics, including the Zack Greinke trade, Kerry Wood's deal with the Cubs, and various teams' minor league systems and prospects.
  • Speaking of the Greinke trade, MLB.com's Mark Sheldon explains why Cincinnati didn't make a move for the ace right-hander and discusses other Reds-related matters in a fan mailbag.
  • In a separate piece, Sheldon writes that the Reds will look internally to replace Arthur Rhodes, who agreed to a contract with Texas today.
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Baltimore Orioles Boston Red Sox Cincinnati Reds New York Yankees Philadelphia Phillies Tampa Bay Rays Adam LaRoche Andy Pettitte Joe Blanton Manny Ramirez Matt Garza

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Odds & Ends: Montanez, D’Backs, Rays

By Ben Nicholson-Smith | December 22, 2010 at 4:18pm CDT

A year ago today, the Yankees acquired Javier Vazquez from the Braves for a group of players led by Melky Cabrera. Neither headliner did much in 2010, but the two lefty relievers in the deal – Michael Dunn and Boone Logan – did well and the Braves acquired a promising young arm in Arodys Vizcaino. As we await the next big trade of the 2010-11 offseason, here are today's links…

  • Cardinals assistant GM John Abbamondi is leaving for San Diego, where he'll be a VP with the Padres, according to Derrick Goold of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch (Twitter links).
  • Luis Montanez told Roch Kubatko of MASNSports.com that he has drawn interest from some AL East teams and some Japanese teams. The 29-year-old outfielder posted a .223/.257/.323 line in 266 plate appearances for the Orioles from 2008-10.
  • The D'Backs have avoided incentive-based contracts in the past, but as MLB.com's Steve Gilbert explains, GM Kevin Towers has been creative with the contracts he's worked on this offseason. Click here for more contract details from around the majors.
  • Cork Gaines of Rays Index explains that Tampa Bay's Opening Day payroll projects to be much lower in 2011, perhaps under $40MM.
  • Ken Rosenthal of FOX Sports explains that former Ray and Type A free agent Grant Balfour could end up returning to Tampa Bay, though it seems unlikely.
  • The Phillies will have almost no flexibility to acquire players next summer unless they trade Joe Blanton to free up salary, according to Rosenthal.
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Arizona Diamondbacks Philadelphia Phillies San Diego Padres St. Louis Cardinals Tampa Bay Rays Grant Balfour Joe Blanton

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Contract Details: Bruce, Lee, Jenks, Pirates, Gomez

By Ben Nicholson-Smith | December 21, 2010 at 10:51pm CDT

Here are some recent updates on contracts from around the majors:

  • Jay Bruce gets $25.25MM for his four arbitration years and $12-12.5MM each for a pair of free agent seasons, reports MLB.com's Mark Sheldon.
  • Cliff Lee can earn $50K for winning a Gold Glove or a Silver Slugger and his new deal also includes bonuses for winning the Cy Young Award, making the All-Star team and winning playoff MVP awards, according to MLB.com's Todd Zolecki.
  • Jonathan Papelbon is Boston's closer, but Bobby Jenks' new deal with the Red Sox includes up to $1MM in incentives for finishing games, according to Rob Bradford of WEEI.com.
  • The Pirates cannot offer Scott Olsen or Kevin Correia arbitration if they rank as Type A free agents when their contracts expire, according to MLB.com's Jenifer Langosch, who has all the details you'd want to know about the contracts for those two pitchers and Josh Fields. 
  • As MLB.com's Adam McCalvy explains, Carlos Gomez can earn up to $100K in incentives depending on how many plate appearances he picks up next year. The Brewers' decision to trade Lorenzo Cain likely helped Gomez.
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Boston Red Sox Cincinnati Reds Milwaukee Brewers Philadelphia Phillies Pittsburgh Pirates Bobby Jenks Carlos Gomez Cliff Lee Jay Bruce Kevin Correia Scott Olsen

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Odds & Ends: Uggla, Soria, Romero, LaRoche

By Dan Mennella | December 20, 2010 at 8:37pm CDT

Fallout from the Zack Greinke deal continues to dominate the baseball landscape. We have more on that and some other items of note, too…

  • Dan Uggla and the Braves are still hammering out a contract extension, tweets David O'Brien of the Atlanta Journal-Constitution. Atlanta GM Frank Wren said the progress between the sides has been steady and there have been no setbacks, but nothing's imminent, according to O'Brien. We heard last week that the Braves remain optimistic about extending Uggla, who is entering his final year of arbitration eligibility.
  • The teams that inquired with the Royals about Zack Greinke were told that Joakim Soria will not be traded, tweets Jack Curry of the YES Network. Ken Rosenthal of FOX Sports reported earlier today that the Royals don't intend to move their closer. Soria, who will turn 27 in May, is considered one of the best young stoppers in the game and is signed to team-favorable terms through 2014, his age-30 season. Perhaps the combination of Soria's age and fair contract have persuaded the Royals to see that he's with Kansas City while its highly touted wave of young talent trickles into the bigs.
  • Free-agent reliever J.C. Romero hopes that Dennys Reyes' failed physical might facilitate his own return to Philly, writes Randy Miller of the Bucks County Courier Times. The 34-year-old Romero, who spent the past three-plus seasons with the Phillies after they acquired him in a midseason deal in 2007, said he'd "definitely" like to return, just as Cliff Lee did.
  • The Orioles' first choice to fill their vacancy at first base remains free agent Adam LaRoche, writes Brittany Ghiroli of MLB.com. Baltimore and LaRoche have been "heavily involved" in talks, and LaRoche is "waiting for a few things" before deciding on a team. The Nationals and Padres are also pursuing him.
  • Ken Rosenthal of FOX Sports noted some leftover tidbits from the Greinke deal, and here are a few of the highlights: The Yankees made a strong push for Greinke in July 2010, but the pitcher didn't want to leave the Royals then. The Royals liked a package of prospects the Blue Jays offered for Greinke, but he didn't want to play for Toronto. One rival executive said the Brewers' acquisition of Yuniesky Betancourt with Greinke "nullifies" the benefits of adding the ace.
  • Greinke was readying for an offseason move late in the 2010 season, going so far as to shelve his toxic but arm-taxing slider, writes Tim Brown of Yahoo! Sports.
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Atlanta Braves Baltimore Orioles Kansas City Royals Philadelphia Phillies Adam LaRoche Dan Uggla Dennys Reyes J.C. Romero Joakim Soria Zack Greinke

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Top Five Phillies GMs Since 1960

By Howard Megdal | December 17, 2010 at 8:26pm CDT

As Philadelphia prepares to present Ruben Amaro, Jr. with his weight in cheesesteaks, it is important to remember that for all of the Phillies' 10,000+ losses, Amaro's got some worthy competition among the GMs in Philadelphia history.

Indeed despite the acquisition of Cliff Lee this week, much of Amaro's story is still to be told. As of this writing, it isn't clear Amaro is in the top three to hold that executive position. Here are the cases for the best five since 1960. I'm using the 50-year window, with the clear understanding that whoever traded Bill Foxen for Fred Luderus, thus securing the first baseman on the NL Champion 1915 team, was a baseball genius.

1. Paul Owens (1972-1983): Owens took the reins of a team that went 59-97 in 1972, and whose primary achievement was to allow Steve Carlton to display his brilliance by winning so little when he didn't pitch (Carlton won 27 games). But by 1975, the Phillies were contenders, and by 1976, they won 101 games, beginning an eight-year stretch that included six playoff appearances, two NL pennants and a World Series title in 1980.

Interestingly, his predecessor, John Quinn, helped him quite a bit, trading Rick Wise for Carlton just months before Owens took over. Owens had directed Philadelphia's farm system before his promotion, and even on the 1972 team, those efforts began to pay off. A 21-year-old Greg Luzinski hit 18 home runs, a rookie catcher named Bob Boone hit .275, and a second baseman/third baseman named Mike Schmidt hit his first major league home run.

But while Owens had a head start, he only built upon those gains in subsequent seasons. His drafts produced talent like Lonnie Smith and Ryne Sandberg, while he signed George Bell and Julio Franco as amateur free agents. He traded Willie Montanez for Garry Maddox. Both men hit  at about league average rates, but Maddox played an elite defensive center field.

Owens didn't put together a great Rule 5 track record – he lost Bell, Greg Walker and Willie Hernandez in various Rule 5 drafts. He also, near the end of his tenure, traded five players, including Franco, for Von Hayes, and five days later, traded a package including Mark Davis and Mike Krukow to the San Francisco Giants for reliever Al Holland and an aging Joe Morgan. But because of what he did well, Owens is still the easy choice at number one.

2. Pat Gillick (2005-2008): Simply put, it is hard to argue with the results. Gillick succeeded everywhere he went, and in just his second season with Philadelphia, the Phillies won the National League East. In his third season, they won a World Series.

So what did he do to push beyond the successful, but also-ran teams of Ed Wade? For one thing, he immediately traded Jim Thome to open first base to a young Ryan Howard. He put together drafts that allowed Philadelphia to deal prospects to fill remaining holes (see Kyle Drabek, for instance, who eventually headlined the deal for Roy Halladay). He picked up Jamie Moyer for a couple of minor leaguers, signed Jayson Werth for six fewer years and approximately $125MM fewer dollars than the Nationals. Plus, he dealt Michael Bourn for Brad Lidge.

Not everything worked for Gillick – his trade of Gio Gonzalez and Gavin Floyd for Freddy Garcia was one-sided for the White Sox. On the other hand, Gonzalez and Floyd would be battling for the fifth starter's job on the 2011 Phillies.

In short, enough of what Gillick did worked, and following the 2008 season he handed a team over to Amaro that managed to win another NL pennant with little tweaking. Only his relatively short tenure keeps Gillick from the number one spot.

3. Ed Wade (1998-2005): I'll be honest: even I'm surprised to see Wade this high. But hear me out.

Wade's drafts, unquestionably, formed the heart of the championship years Philadelphia celebrated after Wade left. Ryan Howard, Chase Utley, Cole Hamels, Pat Burrell, Ryan Madson, Brett Myers, Kyle Kendrick, even the eventually-traded Gavin Floyd, J.A. Happ and Michael Bourn were drafted and signed under Wade. Carlos Ruiz and Antonio Bastardo signed as amateur free agents.

To be sure, there were missteps. Curt Schilling, traded to Arizona, yielded Travis Lee as the primary piece in return. Nick Punto and Carlos Silva went to Minnesota in exchange for Eric Milton. Free agent relievers like Terry Adams too frequently found multi-year deals, thanks to Wade. And despite contending much of the time, Wade couldn't add enough talent to get Philadelphia over the finish line first.

But the Phillies won at least 86 games in four of Wade's final five seasons at the helm, then began a string of four consecutive NL East titles with mostly Wade-acquired players two years later. Most GMs don't get fired for results like this; they get raises.

4. Ruben Amaro, Jr. (2008-Present): Well, for the most part, you probably already know about the successes. Amaro acquired Halladay. He just signed, in an under-the-radar story, Cliff Lee. He acquired Roy Oswalt for surprisingly little this past summer. And under his watch, the Phillies have two playoff appearances, including one NL pennant.

Why isn't Amaro higher? Two reasons. One is, as demonstrated above, his two teams have won largely on the efforts of his two predecessors. Not entirely, of course, but quite a bit. And beyond the big three pitchers mentioned above – two of whom, it must be said, were acquired with prospects provided by his predecessors, there are some troublesome moves as well.

Many of the deals Amaro has given out already look like mistakes. Three years and more than $30MM to Raul Ibanez before 2009 has proven to be an overpay since June of 2009. Three years and $24MM to Joe Blanton has Philadelphia trying to dump Blanton's salary a season later. And the five-year, $125MM deal signed by Ryan Howard – one that doesn't even kick in until 2012 – is arguably the inexplicable move of the baseball decade.

As the players Amaro inherited age, it will be fascinating to see how well the team plays. If he manages that transition well, he'll certainly move up on this list. But the long-term deals he's given out to many older players could keep him anchored at fourth.

5. John Quinn (1959-1972)/Lee Thomas (1988-1997)

This is a very difficult decision, so I've elected not to make it, and call it a tie. Quinn, as mentioned before, made the Steve Carlton trade. He signed Dick Allen as an amateur free agent. But he also presided over seven losing seasons, and never did get Philadelphia to the postseason.

As for Thomas, he took over a 67-win team in 1989, and by 1993, led them to 97 wins and a NL pennant. He stole Dave Hollins in the Rule 5 draft, brought in Lenny Dykstra and Roger McDowell for Juan Samuel, and managed to trade Jason Grimsley for Curt Schilling. And yet, Thomas' Phillies didn't post a winning record once in his final four seasons as GM, meaning his teams had one winning record in eight years.

Both men made some astute moves while GM. But Phillies fans are equally glad that Quinn made way for Owens, and Thomas made way for Wade, Gillick and Amaro.

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Phillies Will Not Sign Dennys Reyes

By Ben Nicholson-Smith | December 17, 2010 at 2:40pm CDT

FRIDAY, December 17th: There will be no deal, according to Jim Salisbury of CSNPhilly.com (Twitter link).  Reyes' agent told MLB.com's Todd Zolecki, "We hit a snag."  Suarez chose not to clarify.

THURSDAY, December 9th: The Phillies agreed to sign Dennys Reyes to a one-year deal worth $1.1MM, according to Matt Gelb of the Philadelphia Inquirer (Twitter links). The deal, which is pending a physical, includes a 2012 option worth $1.35MM. Ken Rosenthal of FOX Sports and Enrique Rojas of ESPN Deportes add details, via Twitter, noting that the club option, which has a buyout worth $150K, becomes mutual if Reyes appears in 70 games in 2011. Agent Oscar Suarez represents the 33-year-old left-hander, who is set to join his 11th team.

Reyes appeared in 59 games last year and posted a 3.55 ERA with 5.9 K/9 and 5.0 BB/9. Those numbers look OK, but the lefty pitched to a 5.91 ERA after posting a 0.54 ERA through May. He can induce grounders, but he walks more than one batter per two innings pitched.

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