Stark: Howard Not Likely To Accept Deal Similar To Pujols
In a recent blog post, Jayson Stark notes that everybody should be paying close attention to the Ryan Howard arbitration case and speculates that Howard and the Phillies are much farther apart that the $3MM difference in their arbitration numbers. In fact, the distance between the two sides can be measured as the difference between Albert Pujols and Alex Rodriguez.
Stark says:
The Phillies renewed Howard at $900,000 last year–precisely the same amount Pujols got from the Cardinals the year before he was eligible for arbitration. Next up, the Phillies will no doubt offer Howard a long-term deal that mirrors the seven-year, $100 million contract Pujols signed with the Cardinals in his first year of arbitration eligibility.
That might sound reasonable from afar. But there is no chance –zero–that the reaction to that offer…is going to sound anything like: Where do we sign?
A-Rod is more what this particular family has in mind.
The $7MM arbitration figure offered by the Phillies is the same amount Pujols made in the first year of his contract extension (his first arbitration-eligible season). The biggest argument against the Pujols comparison is that the Cardinals signed their young record-breaking slugger to a 7-year, $100MM contract in 2004, and there has been an explosion in baseball revenue in the last four years. The Phillies would argue that Howard’s numbers, while historic, are not equal to what Pujols accomplished in his first three seasons. The Phillies appear to be trying to balance performance against inflation.
Stark does not go so far as to say that Howard is seeking $250MM, but does speculate that it would take seven years and at least $150MM. If Stark is right, and the two sides cannot work out an agreement prior to the arbitration hearing, this could get ugly.
By Cork Gaines
Odds and Ends: Closers, Benson, Reed Johnson
Some random links for the day…
- I have created a Fantasy Baseball Closers page at RotoAuthority. With the help of readers it will be constantly updated with current closers and the pecking order of each team.
- Kris Benson will throw for teams again, probably a week from now. The Phillies will again be in attendance. Benson may only get a minor league deal this time around. I remember when he set the standard with his three-year, $21MM deal. Also, the Phils could look to move Wes Helms or Greg Dobbs now that they’ve signed Pedro Feliz.
- The Red Sox had their eye on Reed Johnson, perhaps thinking he would be non-tendered. He wasn’t, and Joe McDonald says Bobby Kielty and Eric Hinske will probably sign elsewhere as well. That leaves Brandon Moss for the bench job, unless the Sox sign Tony Clark, Sean Casey, or Brad Wilkerson.
Pedro Feliz Signs With Phillies
UPDATE, 1-28-08 at 8:47pm: Feliz gets a guaranteed $8.5MM over two years. With a third year option and incentives, the deal could reach $15MM over three. Feliz left the Giants with some bad blood, turning down what may have been a better offer. We all know Feliz has his flaws, but he is what he is. I agree that the Phils improved themselves here, and I’m not sure if I saw a better alternative.
FROM 1-28-08 at 3:06pm:
According to ESPN’s Jayson Stark, the Phillies have signed third baseman Pedro Feliz to a two-year deal (pending a physical).
Feliz, 33 in April, has a career line of .252/.288/.433. The average NL third baseman hit .280/.348/.456 in ’07, so Feliz is definitely subpar offensively. On the flip side, the Fielding Bible’s panel of experts ranked him the best defensive third baseman in baseball for 2007. Sum it up and you have a player worth roughly three wins above replacement, an improvement over what the Phillies had. Kyle Kendrick may be most appreciative of Feliz’s defense, as he is the staff’s lead groundballer.
Feliz was a Type B free agent, so the Giants get a sandwich pick for their loss.
Ryan Howard and Arbitration Comparables
ESPN’s Keith Law has some good info up on his personal blog. I have always wondered about this stuff. In the post, Law discusses how little sense it makes for the Phillies to pay Ryan Howard more than his service time calls for. But also in the comments Law explains which players Howard’s agent can compare him to for an arbitration hearing.
Law says:
For comparison purposes, a player may be compared to players in the same “service class” in the current year or in prior years, and third- and fourth-time eligibles may be compared to free agents who have signed in the current year or in prior years. Single-year salaries are more powerful comparisons than multi-year deals, since the individual salaries within a multi-year deal may be skewed due to bonuses, backloading, or other factors.
Law notes that Howard’s comp could be Miguel Cabrera, who made $7.4MM last year. Howard logically deserves more than that based on a stat comparison, making the Phillies’ $7MM submission seem low.
Odds and Ends: Howard, Aardsma, Odalis
Here we go, another random collection of links.
- The Red Sox inked a couple of former closers to minor league deals: Dan Kolb and Dan Miceli. No need to run out and pick them up for your fantasy team. I think Papelbon is secure.
- Nick Cafardo of the Boston Globe says the Red Sox are hunting for a lefty bench bat. Tony Clark emailed him to say he’d love a return to Boston, but Cafardo says he’s not on the top of the list. Clark hit .207/.265/.291 for the ’02 Sox.
- A few comments from Pat Gillick on the Ryan Howard situation. He says the Phillies are "open to anything." Gillick also claimed arbitration hearings really aren’t all that contentious. I guess that could be true, I’ve never been in the room for one.
- The official acquisition of Octavio Dotel meant the White Sox DFA’d David Aardsma. Aardsma, 26, has whiffed about a batter per inning over his last two seasons. He has to have a little bit of trade value.
- Impacto Deportivo says the Mets will meet with Odalis Perez. Two left-handed O. Perez’s might confuse opponents, giving the Mets an advantage. Really though it’s a good idea for Omar to stockpile some arms even if Odalis doesn’t have much left. One thing’s for sure, he won’t be earning $7.75MM again. (Hat tip to MetsBlog).
- Looking for an MLBTR reader forum? I offer you our Facebook discussion board.
Odds and Ends: Howard, Cormier, Gerut
I am currently evaluating Phil Hughes‘ playlist. Some of it is solid. Let’s get on to the odds and ends…
- Bill Conlin thinks it’s a mistake for the Phillies to pay Ryan Howard at a rate commensurate with his service time. It’s a slippery slope – shouldn’t Cole Hamels be earning $15MM instead of $500K, then? The system may be broken but it doesn’t make sense for the Phillies to start ignoring service time.
- John Mozeliak is not done yet. Meanwhile, Albert Pujols continued to direct his ire at KTVI-TV of St. Louis.
- The Orioles agreed to a minor league deal with 27 year-old righty Lance Cormier worth around $450K. Cormier doesn’t have much to show for his 244 big league innings, whether starting or relieving. He has a decent groundball rate, at least.
- The Padres signed Jody Gerut to a minor league pact that could be worth as much as $910K. He’s 30 now; his best season was an .830 OPS for Cleveland at age 25. Since then he’s had all sorts of knee problems and even had a grievance with the Pirates.
Odds and Ends: Gregg, Howard, Shingo, Valentin, Ankiel
Some loose ends and links from today…
- Closer Kevin Gregg is the highest-paid Marlin at $2.5MM. Quick! Trade him!
- Ryan Howard and the Phillies submitted salary figures: Howard wants $10MM, the Phillies want to pay him $7MM. If they can’t meet in the middle then an independent arbitrator will pick one of the two amounts next month. MLB.com has a handy table showing all the figures submitted today by players and teams.
- Fun fact, the Cubs signed Shingo Takatsu. He’s 39 now; he saved 19 games for the ’04 White Sox. He had a 6.17 ERA in 23 innings in Japan last year though. Mr. Zero is the all-time saves leader in Japan.
- Jose Valentin‘s minor league deal was announced today. The free agent market is pretty much barren of middle infielders now.
- The Cardinals and Rick Ankiel agreed on $900K plus another $100K in incentives for ’08. He was an oddball case without comparables given his career progression.
- The Royals appear to be done this offseason.
Odds and Ends: Hendrickson, Soria, Sherrill
Here’s today’s random collection of links.
- The Marlins signed Mark Hendrickson as the veteran leadership guy for ’08, at a cost of $1.5MM. He was knocked around in 15 starts for the Dodgers in ’07 but was solid in the pen. The Marlins will put him in the rotation, perhaps to tutor fellow southpaws Andrew Miller and Scott Olsen.
- Craig Brown would like to see the Royals use Joakim Soria as a starter.
- There is a theory that the Mariners’ signing of Arthur Rhodes will allow them to trade George Sherrill in an Erik Bedard deal. Seems a half-baked theory, wherever it originated. I don’t think Sherrill is holding this deal up.
- An argument for the Nate Robertson extension from Danny Knobler, and one against from J.C. Bradbury. Also, Peter Abraham thinks Chien Ming-Wang‘s agent will use Robertson as a comparable.
- The White Sox are still considering Bartolo Colon, according to ESPN Radio’s Bruce Levine.
- Pat Burrell would love to re-sign with the Phillies after this season. Pat, by the way, doesn’t have a computer and owes his second half success to "more hits."
- Phil Hughes has a computer, and even a new blog. Not much going on over there yet though.
Neal On Garza Trade
I recently named La Velle E. Neal III of the Minneapolis Star-Tribune as Rumor Royalty for the Twins. He answered a few questions for MLBTR.
MLBTR: Given the loss of Carlos Silva and probable trade of Santana, was it wise for the Twins to send Matt Garza to the Rays?
Neal: The Twins needed to address their offense. They were deficient last season at third base, left field and, on the days Joe Mauer wasn’t available, designated hitter. Scouts from other organizations keep talking about Delmon Young‘s 40-homer potential, and it was nice to hear Brendan Harris say, "everyone has to pull their weight at the dish," on the day of the trade. I’ve covered this team for 10 years and have seen a lot of bad offense.
You can’t blame the Twins for not re-signing Silva, but you wonder why they didn’t trade him during the season when the Phillies and other teams were interested.
Olney’s Latest: Hall, Cameron, Benson
Buster Olney’s ESPN blog is always a good read. A few nuggets from today’s posting:
- Olney wonders whether the Brewers and Dodgers will revisit talks about Bill Hall. There seems to be this general vibe that Hall is upset about moving positions again, even though he hasn’t said anything publicly. Plus, he’d have to move back to third as a Dodger anyway.
- According to Olney: "The Yankees were never seriously engaged in talks to sign Mike Cameron." However you can’t really say Cameron’s agent used the Yankees to pump up Cameron’s price, since he signed for just one year and $6.2MM.
- The Phils may send people to watch Kris Benson throw next week. I believe this would be the second time they’ve observed him, so maybe it’s getting serious.