Rumor Royalty: Todd Zolecki (Phillies)
Todd Zolecki is our Rumor Royalty recipient for the Phillies. Todd covers the team for the Philadelphia Inquirer and also keeps a blog, the soon-to-be-renamed Zo Zone. Todd has kindly agreed to answer a handful of reader questions for the series.
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MLBTR: Does signing Ryan Howard to a long term contract make sense for the Phils?
Zolecki: It depends what price we’re talking about. Before and after winning $10 million in arbitration, Howard is seeking major money. Maybe in the $200 million range. The Phillies are not the Yankees or Red Sox, so if they commit that type of money to one player, it almost certainly would cost them elsewhere. That could mean Cole Hamels going elsewhere. Or Brett Myers. Or others. I’m not sure the Phillies want to do that, and get stuck in a contract they hate like the Rangers and A-Rod.
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MLBTR: For many years, the Phillies’ farm system has been lackluster with respect to pitching. Why is this the case, and do you think the farm system is improving in this respect?
Zolecki: There’s no question it’s been a source of frustration. The Phillies haven’t had a homegrown 20-game winner since Chris Short in 1966. That’s remarkable. There are millions of theories out there, but lately it seems like they’ve had better success. Hamels. Myers. Kendrick. They like Carlos Carrasco, Joe Savery, Josh Outman and Kyle Drabek (who’s recovering from Tommy John) in the minors. Will these guys pan out? We’ll see. But it seems like they are turning some things around. Of course, things would be easier if they spent a little more money to sign players in the draft.
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MLBTR: Do the Phillies have the goods to acquire Joe Blanton without hurting the ’08 team?
Zolecki: I don’t think so. The Phillies are very hesitant to give up some of their top talent because they don’t have much at the moment.
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MLBTR: What was your opinion of the Brad Lidge trade? Do you think he can handle Philly?
Zolecki: I like it. They got him relatively cheaply — Geoff Geary, Michael Bourn and Mike Costanzo. If Lidge pitches like they think they can, the Phillies improved their bullpen and rotation with one move. That’s tough do. Fortunately for them, Myers is versatile and should transition back into the rotation.
Ryan Howard Fallout
Ryan Howard winning a $10MM salary yesterday was kind of a big deal. Let’s examine this first-year arbitration record.
- A source of Jayson Stark’s thinks the Phillies would’ve won had they submitted above Miguel Cabrera’s $7.4MM. Seems that even slightly above would’ve done it, because then Howard losing would’ve still set a record.
- Tom Haudricourt talks about how Prince Fielder is now in line for the same $10MM for his ’09 salary. And he doesn’t see Scott Boras relenting and doing a multiyear deal. Stark adds Ryan Braun, Ryan Zimmerman, and Hanley Ramirez as other young stars who will be affected. Zimmerman, arbitration-eligible after ’08, will be renewed for ’07.
- It doesn’t sound like the Phillies will sign Howard long-term, in part because there is no precedent. There is talk of $200MM, something no one expects of the Phils. On the plus side, Howard is theirs for the 2008-11 seasons. They may have to keep giving him record-breaking salaries though. A trade is a strong option before he hits free agency, but that’s a ways off.
- Jim Salisbury thinks Howard’s win might result in another monster year. He expects the Phils to eventually at least talk about a multiyear deal with Howard (maybe once the sting wears off).
Ryan Howard Wins Case
THURSDAY, 9:07am: Victory for the players! Howard gets his $10MM. It’s a first-year arbitration record salary. As Keith Law has pointed out – "the effect of this loss is cumulative" for the Phillies. Another effect will be on Prince Fielder‘s 2009 salary.
WEDNESDAY, 9:31am:MLB.com’s Ken Mandel says Phillies’ assistant GM Ruben Amaro Jr. met with Ryan Howard‘s agent Casey Close minutes before the player’s arbitration hearing. They looked into a last-minute agreement but it could not be done. The hearing began at 8:30am CST; $3MM hangs in the balance. We should know within a day.
Players are 0-5 in hearings so far. But as we discussed, that’s not terribly unexpected. Jim Salisbury has a cool inside look at arbitration hearings (hat tip to ShysterBall). Tom Gordon talks about his experience here. Also, Jon Heyman takes a look at Chien Ming Wang’s team’s losing argument.
Astros Win Loretta Case
Arbiters ruled in favor of the Astros over Mark Loretta today, saving the team $2.15MM. I guess the 20% pay cut thing doesn’t apply here. With the Jose Valverde savings, that makes $3.65MM for Houston. That’s probably right around what Shawn Chacon will get.
Three hearings remain undecided; the players will probably snag at least one victory in the cases of Ryan Howard, Oliver Perez, and Francisco Rodriguez. Keith Law explains again why the Phils paying Howard more than they have to does not make sense.
Historically teams have won 57.7% of cases. So we might’ve expected the teams to be 3-2 instead of 5-0 this year but it’s not exactly a huge upset.
Burrell Enters Contract Year
All sorts of players are entering contract years, and it’s become a popular Spring Training topic. Pat Burrell mentioned over a month ago that he’d love to re-sign with the Phillies. Todd Zolecki chronicles Burrell’s trials and tribulations over nine years playing for the Phils. He’s set to earn $14MM this year, finishing up the extension Ed Wade engineered.
Other major power threats in Burrell’s free agent class: Mark Teixeira, Adam Dunn, and perhaps Manny Ramirez. Dunn, by the way, hasn’t had any extension talks with the Reds.
Burrell Enters Contract Year
All sorts of players are entering contract years, and it’s become a popular Spring Training topic. Pat Burrell mentioned over a month ago that he’d love to re-sign with the Phillies. Todd Zolecki chronicles Burrell’s trials and tribulations over nine years playing for the Phils. He’s set to earn $14MM this year, finishing up the extension Ed Wade engineered.
Other major power threats in Burrell’s free agent class: Mark Teixeira, Adam Dunn, and perhaps Manny Ramirez. Dunn, by the way, hasn’t had any extension talks with the Reds.
Odds and Ends: Kelly Johnson, Nathan, Crede
Time for some early Monday odds and ends.
- Remember how White Sox GM Ron Schueler embarrassed Cubs GM Ed Lynch in 1998 by acquiring Jon Garland for Matt Karchner? Rany Jazayerli sees a parallel to that heist with the Royals’ acquisition of Daniel Cortes as part of the July ’06 Mike MacDougal trade.
- Mike Berardino’s blog continues to entertain; this time with a Dan Miceli story. Ah, knife fights with siblings. Who among us can say they haven’t had one or two?
- Buster Olney learned from Braves GM Frank Wren that Kelly Johnson has been the team’s most asked-for player in trade talks this winter.
- The look on Kyle Kendrick‘s face is priceless.
- Extension talks with the Twins and Joe Nathan have gone dormant. Nathan still thinks the gap can be bridged but wants it done before the season begins.
- Andy Marte and Shin-Soo Choo are both out of options; when Choo comes back from elbow surgery a month into the season one of them could be traded.
- Henry Schulman says the White Sox may accept prospects from the Giants for Joe Crede.
- Derek Lowe is entering his walk year, and he hasn’t had any extension talks with the Dodgers yet.
Odds and Ends: Perez, Jones, Howard, Burnett
Let’s round up today’s linkage.
- No more long-term discussions with Oliver Perez and the Mets.
- Andruw Jones already wants to talk extension with the Dodgers.
- The Cardinals are not likely to make anymore acquisitions. In my view the team has question marks in right field, the middle infield, and the rotation. Here’s a look at their MLB.com depth chart. By the way, could Ryan Franklin be a league average starter? They could try it if the current options don’t pan out.
- Jim Salisbury thinks the Ryan Howard contract situation is a nonstory. I think this is partially because (and I hope this doesn’t sound condescending) most fans do not understand the arbitration process. Anyway Salisbury’s source says the Phillies would match Chase Utley‘s seven-year, $85MM deal and might approach $100MM. He says Howard may want "significantly more."
- Ivan Rodriguez would like to play beyond the 2008 season and retire a Tiger. If the Tigers can’t find a taker for Brandon Inge this year, he could be their starting catcher in ’09.
- Carl Pavano doesn’t seem too popular in the Yankees’ clubhouse.
- J.P. Ricciardi does not plan to do an extension during the season with A.J. Burnett. I think Burnett will stay healthy enough to top the two years, $24MM he could get if he does not opt out.
Rumor Royalty: Todd Zolecki (Phillies)
Todd Zolecki is our Rumor Royalty recipient for the Phillies. Todd covers the team for the Philadelphia Inquirer and also keeps a blog, the soon-to-be-renamed Zo Zone.
Todd has kindly agreed to answer a handful of reader questions for the series. Please leave your Phillies hot stove queries in the comments and I’ll choose the best three or four.
Odds and Ends: Helms, Bako, Crisp
I am going to toss today’s non-Santana odds and ends into this post.
- Paul Hagen runs through some possibilities for the likely-to-be-traded Wes Helms: Marlins, Rays, Twins, Giants, and A’s. Any teams you’d like to add to his speculation?
- The Pirates have moved on from Johnny Estrada to Paul Bako. He’d battle to back up Ronny Paulino.
- OK this is Santana-related. Gordon Edes says the Red Sox will listen to offers for Coco Crisp, but are fine with keeping him around as perhaps the game’s best fourth outfielder. See any good fits for Crisp?