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AL East Notes: Hanley, Madson, Happ, Rays

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Hanley Ramirez “is going to be our first baseman,” a high-ranking Red Sox source tells WEEI.com’s Rob Bradford.  The club is committed to using Ramirez at first in 2016 and the Sox have mapped out a rough 140-game schedule for Ramirez at the position.  The Boston Globe’s Nick Cafardo reported earlier today that the Red Sox were shopping Ramirez.  While this statement from Bradford’s source won’t end that speculation, it only makes sense that the club is preparing as if Ramirez will be on the roster rather than assuming a trade partner will be found.  President of baseball operations Dave Dombrowski also said the Sox were intent on using Ramirez at first during his season-end media conference, for what it’s worth.

Here’s more from around the AL East…

  • The Red Sox will likely need to make a decision about whether to keep or trade Ramirez before the Winter Meetings if they want a shot at signing Chris Davis, Jason Mastrodonato of the Boston Herald writes.  Davis could well agree to a deal at the Meetings, leaving Boston looking for lower-tier first basemen as platoon options to share time with Travis Shaw and utilityman Brock Holt.  Signing Davis before trading Ramirez, of course, isn’t feasible since it would leave the Sox with zero negotiating position in trade talks.
  • The Blue Jays are looking at relievers with closing experience, ESPN’s Jerry Crasnick reports (Twitter link), and Ryan Madson is one of the names under consideration.  Madson had a tremendous year as the Phillies’ closer in 2011 but then missed the next three seasons with injuries before reviving his career in the Royals’ bullpen in 2015.  In looking for former closers, it stands to reason that the Jays are still considering stretching out current ninth-inning man Roberto Osuna as a starter.  The Tigers and Dodgers have also been rumored to be interested in Madson this offseason.
  • J.A. Happ discussed signing with the Blue Jays in an interview on MLB Network Radio on SiriusXM (audio link), saying that multiple teams showed interest but “Toronto was really aggressive” in making a deal happen.  Happ was also swayed by his past stint in Toronto, his good relationships with John Gibbons and pitching coach Pete Walker, and the fact that the Jays look to be contenders again next year.  The southpaw said the Pirates, his former club, were one of the clubs with interest but talks “never quite got there” (hat tip to Rob Biertempfel of the Pittsburgh Tribune-Review).
  • The Rays seem to overhaul their bullpen every winter but their 2016 relief corps appears to be mostly set, Marc Topkin of the Tampa Bay Times writes.  Brad Boxberger, Jake McGee, Steve Geltz and three out-of-options arms in Enny Romero, Xavier Cedeno and Alex Colome seem to be the top six, with Andrew Bellatti and newcomer Danny Farquhar also on hand and probably a couple of veterans on minor league deals to eventually be signed for additional depth.  Of course, Topkin notes that this stable bullpen plan could be greatly shuffled if the strong interest in Boxberger and McGee actually induces the Rays to part with one in a trade.
  • In other AL East notes from earlier today, the Blue Jays’ GM search is down to two known finalists, the Orioles have some interest in Denard Span and MLBTR’s Zach Links compiled another set of division notes.

Non-Tender Candidate: Pedro Alvarez

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MLB’s deadline to tender contracts to arbitration-eligible players is coming up on Wednesday, and one of the more interesting cases is that of Pirates first baseman Pedro Alvarez, who seems at least somewhat unlikely to return to the Bucs next season. MLBTR projects that Alvarez would make $8.1MM through the arbitration process in 2016 (after which he would become eligible for free agency). That’s a figure that the Pirates could be reluctant to pay, and there are any number of signals that both Alvarez and the Bucs appear ready to move on from one another.

USATSI_8768590_154513410_lowresAlready this offseason, reporters have indicated that the Pirates are listening to trade offers for Alvarez. Last week, CBS Sports’ Jon Heyman reported that Alvarez himself would prefer to be dealt. And the Bucs’ signing of fellow left-handed first baseman Jake Goebbert to a big-league deal last week suggests that the organization is planning for the possibility that Alvarez won’t be back. Goebbert doesn’t look like a long-term answer at first base, and he has options remaining, so the Bucs could simply mostly want him for minor-league depth. But they could also platoon him with righty Michael Morse at first until the Super Two threshold passes, at which point they could promote top prospect Josh Bell.

It seems at least somewhat likely, then, that Alvarez will head to a new team this winter. The question is how he’ll do it. The Pirates could still try to trade him before next week’s deadline, but it’s questionable whether they’ll be able to find a suitor, given that other teams know the deadline will force the Bucs’ hand. They could tender Alvarez and plan to trade him later, but that would be somewhat of a risk, particularly given that they don’t generally have huge payrolls and they have many key players whose salaries are increasing (including Neil Walker and Mark Melancon through arbitration and Andrew McCutchen, Josh Harrison and Starling Marte through their long-term deals). Or they could non-tender him.

Even leaving aside the looming deadline, assessing Alvarez’s trade value is difficult. What does appear fairly clear is that he should have little value to any team in the National League. Via FanGraphs, Alvarez ranked as the third-worst defensive player in the Majors last year, ahead of only Matt Kemp and Hanley Ramirez. The Bucs moved Alvarez to first in 2015 after he suffered inexplicable throwing issues at third base in 2014, but the move across the diamond did him few favors, as he struggled badly with the fundamentals at his new position and made 23 errors. Essentially, unless he dramatically improve at one of the two defensive positions with the help of a new team’s coaching staff, he’s close to unplayable at either position.

That would make Alvarez a better fit for the American League, where he can DH. His 27 home runs in 2015 have to appear tempting to opposing clubs, particularly ones with ballparks more favorable to home-run power than PNC Park. Unfortunately, Alvarez has offensive shortcomings as well — he’s struck out in more than a quarter of his plate appearances in every year he’s been in the league, and he therefore struggles to post good batting averages.

Still, absent context, Alvarez’s .243/.318/.469 line in 2015 (or the .243/.320/.454 Steamer projects for him next season) would make him a decent DH, particularly given that he might hit somewhat better in certain ballparks. AL designated hitters batted .264/.334/.454 in 2015, and Alvarez would appear to fit in fairly well. As I pointed out in September at Bucs Dugout, however, using Alvarez as a full-time DH would limit the flexibility many teams like to have with that lineup spot. Many full-time DHs, like David Ortiz, Alex Rodriguez and Kendrys Morales, are significantly better hitters than Alvarez, and many teams without that kind of strong DH option divide plate appearances at that position among several players, many of whom also play in the field. Also, some of the teams who fared worst at DH in 2015, like the Tigers and Athletics, did so because of the performances of veterans who are signed to long-term deals and who seem likely to return to their positions next season.

This isn’t to say that there won’t, or shouldn’t, be interest in Alvarez. The Orioles, who struggled at DH last year and who play in a ballpark friendly to left-handed home run hitters, stand out as one potential fit. But trading Alvarez might be somewhat tricky for the Pirates, particularly given that, if they tender him a contract, he won’t be particularly cheap. To be worth his likely $8.1MM salary, he’ll have to produce something like one win above replacement. In the past two seasons combined, he’s been worth less than one win, via both FanGraphs and Baseball Reference. So trading for Alvarez and taking on his salary would require a leap of faith — that his incredible power can somehow overwhelm his shortcomings, or (if his new team uses him in the field with any regularity) that his defense can improve.

It will be interesting, then, to see if the Pirates can pull off a trade involving Alvarez, and if not, what they do with him. Non-tendering him and spending elsewhere would be defensible, particularly with Bell waiting in the wings. Non-tendering Alvarez would also free the Bucs to spend on some other left-handed first base option for next season. The Pirates could also tender Alvarez, use him in a platoon with Morse, hope he recoups some value with a couple decent months in the field, and then either trade him or keep him, depending on the team’s position in the standings and how Bell is doing at Triple-A Indianapolis. We’re only days from the deadline to tender contracts, and it’s not at all clear which direction the Pirates will go.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

NL Notes: Braves, Zimmermann, Moroff

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Former GM Jim Duquette’s list for MLB.com of five trades that should happen includes two deals involving the Braves. Duquette suggests the Braves deal Freeman to the Cardinals for Matt Adams, Kolten Wong and starting pitcher Tim Cooney — an interesting suggestion, given the Cards’ need for a power bat, although, Wong’s departure would create a new hole at second base. (The Braves, of course, emphatically deny that they will trade Freeman, as Duquette notes.) Duquette also suggests the Braves deal Shelby Miller to the Cubs for prospects Billy McKinney and Willson Contreras. Miller would provide the Cubs with a mid-rotation pitcher who might be an alternative to a free-agent option like Jeff Samardzija, and McKinney and Contreras would give the Braves a couple good position-player prospects to complement their collection of young pitchers. Of course, these are both just ideas, and not actual trade rumors, but they’re fun. Here’s more from the National League.

  • Former Nationals starting pitcher and free agent Jordan Zimmermann isn’t quite on a tier with David Price and Zack Greinke, but there’s plenty to recommend him, beginning with his consistency, as MLB.com’s Paul Casella writes. Zimmermann, Casella points out, is the only MLB starter who’s made at least 32 starts and posted ERAs below 3.70 in all of the past four seasons. He’s also one of the best starters in baseball at limiting walks.
  • Second baseman Max Moroff was little more than a sleeper prospect before the season, but after an outstanding 2015, he’s earned a place on the Pirates’ 40-man roster, Adam Berry of MLB.com writes. The Bucs gave Moroff a $300K bonus as a late-round pick in 2012 and moved him aggressively through the system, but it wasn’t until this year at Double-A Altoona that his patient approach at the plate started to pay dividends. Moroff hit .293 and walked 70 times en route to a .374 OBP. That earned him the Pirates’ Minor League Player of the Year award, and forced the Bucs to protect him from the Rule 5 Draft. “We felt that he was one of those guys that, if selected [in the Rule 5], could do enough things to help a Major League team win that he might end up staying with another organization,” says GM Neal Huntington.

NL Notes: Reyes, Pirates, D’Backs, Davis

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Rockies shortstop Jose Reyes has been charged with abuse of a family or household member, the Associated Press reports (via SI.com). The 32-year-old has entered a plea of not guilty to the charges, which stem from his recent arrest in Hawaii for alleged violent acts against his wife during an argument. As explained in the linked post, the commissioner’s office will be watched closely as it applies the newly agreed-upon domestic abuse protocol for the first time to a highly-paid, high-profile player.

As we wait for further information in that disappointing and concerning situation, let’s take a look at some other links relating to National League clubs:

  • The Pirates are “definitely listening” on all players entering their final year of contract control, ESPN.com’s Jayson Stark reports on Twitter. Closer Mark Melancon, second baseman Neil Walker, and first baseman Pedro Alvarez are all prime candidates to be dealt, says Stark. It certainly will be fascinating to see how the team proceeds with those notable players, including what they seek (and potentially obtain) in return as well as what other moves the ultimate decisions set up.
  • The Diamondbacks are said to be looking into a variety of options to add starting pitching, including cashing in some young position player talent via trade. Nick Piecoro of the Arizona Republic breaks down the considerations facing GM Dave Stewart and co. Piecoro gathers the thoughts of numerous talent evaluators in the interesting piece, focusing his analysis on the timing of the team’s assets. Arizona is still testing several possibilities, he reports, but it sounds rather likely that some kind of hitting-for-pitching deal will come together at some point this winter.
  • Bernie Miklasz of 101Sports.com takes a look at the Cardinals’ decision-making process regarding free agent first baseman/outfielder Chris Davis. There’s a fit on paper, writes the veteran journalist, but he says it would rate as a surprise if St. Louis emerges as a serious bidder — especially if the ask goes past five years (as it almost assuredly does).
  • If those links don’t have enough interesting reading to get you through turkey day, check out these two recent pieces on Fangraphs: Brewers GM David Stearns spoke with David Laurila about a variety of interesting and relevant topics. And Jeff Sullivan assesses the trade value of all-world Reds closer Aroldis Chapman.

Heyman’s Latest: Madson, Iwakuma, Alvarez, Zobrist, O’s, Perez, Freese

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Let’s take a look in at the latest reporting from Jon Heyman of CBSSports.com, who touched upon several notable stories today (all via his Inside Baseball column, except as otherwise noted):

  • The Dodgers have had contact with free agent righty Ryan Madson, Heyman says. The veteran, who enjoyed a remarkable turnaround last year, could be one of several options as Los Angeles looks to beef up its pen.
  • The Mariners have long said that re-signing Hisashi Iwakuma is a priority, and GM Jerry Dipoto reaffirmed that stance only days ago. Heyman writes that the club is “willing to go to around $24 million or so over two years” for the accomplished veteran. It’s not entirely clear whether there’s any willingness to go beyond that amount, but it seems a bit light for a pitcher of Iwakuma’s ability. (MLBTR’s Tim Dierkes predicts a three-year, $45MM deal for the righty.)
  • Pirates first baseman Pedro Alvarez would welcome a trade, writes Heyman. It’s been known for awhile that Alvarez is on the block due to his rising arbitration salary, poor glove and struggles with left-handed pitching. The Pirates almost certainly don’t want to pay Alvarez his projected $8.1MM salary next season and could very well non-tender him next week if they can’t find a taker. Heyman notes that the Orioles make some sense, and I’d add the Athletics as a speculative fit also. He’s probably best off with an AL club where he can DH, but it’s also fun to think of the power numbers Alvarez could log at Coors Field.
  • The Cardinals are among the most interested teams in Ben Zobrist and have reached out to his representatives at Octagon, reports Heyman. Zobrist was linked to the Cardinals last week, and Heyman notes that there are as many as 20 teams believed to have interest in the versatile switch-hitter. Derrick Goold of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch tweets that the Cardinals are indeed in the mix, but it remains to be seen whether they can sell Zobrist on a super-utility role (an “uber-role,” as Goold terms it). Zobrist’s preference is reportedly to play second base.
  • While the Orioles are prioritizing an effort to bring back Chris Davis, the club has legitimate interest in outfielder Alex Gordon. Meanwhile, Heyman says that he’d be surprised if the club pursues Gerardo Parra as a corner outfield option, since “they weren’t all that impressed by him” over the last several months.
  • The Royals may be “willing to at least talk” with the reps of backstop Salvador Perez about “reworking” his early-career extension. That contract has become almost comically team-friendly since it was signed — a reflection of both the significant risk taken on by the team at the time and the extent to which Perez has rewarded that trust. It’s not entirely clear what kind of scenario could be pursued, but all indications are that Kansas City would be bargaining from a position of strength.
  • There’s at least “a bit” of contact between the Angels and free agent third baseman David Freese, says Heyman. A reunion continues to appear possible, though the club will likely look to see how some other market possibilities play out before committing to the veteran.

Pirates Acquire Allen Webster From Diamondbacks

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The Diamondbacks announced that they’ve traded right-hander Allen Webster to the Pirates in exchange for cash considerations. Webster was designated for assignment last week.

Webster, 26 in February, was once considered a consensus Top 100 prospect. The former 18th-round pick (Dodgers, 2008) has been involved in a pair of notable trades, first going to Boston from L.A. as part of the Adrian Gonzalez/Carl Crawford blockbuster and then being traded to the D-Backs last winter in the Wade Miley deal.

Webster displayed a penchant for strikeouts early in his minor league career but has struggled more recently, both at the upper levels of the minors and in the Major Leagues with Boston and Arizona. Control, in particular, has become a problem for Webster, who has averaged 4.9 walks per nine innings in parts of three big league seasons and walked more batters (20) than he struck out (17) in 31 innings with the D-Backs this year. All told, Webster has a 6.13 ERA in 120 1/3 big league innings.

When his prospect status was at its peak, Baseball America wrote that Webster showed the “best pure stuff of anyone in the Red Sox system,” praising a fastball that ranged from 93-98 mph with good sink as well as a plus changeup. BA noted, however, that while Webster’s “outrageous” stuff came with top-of-the-rotation potential, an inability to command his fastball and questions about his confidence were enough to wonder if he’d ever reach that ceiling.

Certainly, the Pirates will hope that realization is still possible, though Webster needn’t become more than a solid middle reliever for this to look like a shrewd pickup in hindsight. He’s out of minor league options, however, so he’ll need to stick with the Bucs out of camp next spring or again be exposed to waivers.

Pirates Sign Jake Goebbert To Major League Deal

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The Pirates announced that they have signed first baseman/outfielder Jake Goebbert to a Major League contract. His signing brings the team’s 40-man roster to a total of 39.

Goebbert, 28, spent the entire 2015 season in Triple-A with the Padres, where he batted .294/.392/.452 with 10 home runs. While the Pacific Coast League is known as an exceptionally hitter-friendly environment, Goebbert has long shown a discerning eye at the plate, walking in 11.1 percent of his plate appearances since being selected by the Astros in the 13th round of the 2009 draft.

Houston sent Goebbert to the Athletics in April of 2013 in exchange for left-hander Travis Blackley, and he was traded again a year later, heading from Oakland to San Diego in exchange for fellow first baseman/outfielder Kyle Blanks. Goebbert received 115 plate appearances with the Padres in 2014 — his only Major League experience — and batted .218/.313/.317 with a homer, a double and three triples.

Goebbert’s addition to the 40-man roster comes at a time when the Pirates are known to be shopping Pedro Alvarez, though his presence isn’t necessarily an indicator that Alvarez will be jettisoned. It’s unlikely he’d be slotted in for any kind of starting role, though the Pirates clearly like him enough that he has to be considered in the mix for a spot as a left-handed bat off the bench next year.

Cafardo’s Latest: Giants, Braves, Gordon, Chapman

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Here’s the latest from The Boston Globe’s Nick Cafardo…

  • The Braves are one of multiple teams who have asked the Giants about Joe Panik and Matt Duffy in trade talks but San Francisco isn’t interesting in dealing either young infielder.  Panik and Duffy may have come up in discussions with the Braves over pitching, as Cafardo reports the Giants have discussed Julio Teheran and Shelby Miller.
  • Marlins second baseman Dee Gordon is generating “a ton of interest” and Miami is at least listening.  It would take a controllable, front-of-the-rotation arm to really get the Marlins’ attention, however, and it “seems unlikely” that Gordon would go anywhere.  I have to agree that dealing Gordon would be a stunning move even for the Marlins; if anything, the club is far more likely to extend him, as has been noted in recent reports.
  • The Reds and Red Sox discussed a trade for Aroldis Chapman, but Cincinnati wanted more from Boston than the Sox eventually sent to the Padres to land Craig Kimbrel.  That would represent a stunningly high asking price for a closer who is only under contract through the 2016 season.  Kimbrel, by contrast, is owed $25MM through the 2017 season and Boston has a $13MM club option on his services for 2018.
  • Andrew Miller is “atop” the Astros’ list of closer targets and Mark Melancon is also under consideration.  We’d already heard about Houston’s interest in acquiring a top reliever earlier today, with Miller’s name included with the likes of Chapman, Brad Boxberger and Ken Giles.
  • Speaking of Melancon, the Pirates closer tells Cafardo that he’s keeping an open mind about trade speculation.  “I love the Pirates. I love our group of guys and would love to stay here, but I also understand the business of it.  Every organization has a different business plan, and if the Pirates feel they need to deal me, then I understand that. Our people haven’t said a word to me about the possibility, so until that changes, I’m assuming I’m starting the year with the Pirates.”
  • The Twins are another team looking for relief help and they’ve also received a lot of interest about third baseman Trevor Plouffe.  There has been speculation that Plouffe could be moved to make way for Miguel Sano at third base, especially if the Twins come to an agreement with Byung-Ho Park.
  • Though Brett Gardner’s name has surfaced in trade talks, it’s “not a slam dunk” that the Yankees would part with him since he’s a clubhouse leader.  As CBS Sports’ Jon Heyman did yesterday, Cafardo also downplays the idea of a Gardner-for-Starlin Castro trade, noting that the Yankees would only trade Gardner if they got a starting pitcher back.
  • Five general managers told Cafardo that they wouldn’t take Hanley Ramirez in a trade even if the Red Sox covered at least half of Ramirez’s remaining salary.  Ramirez is owed $66MM through 2018 and he has a $22MM vesting option for 2019, so even at a reduced rate, that’s still a hefty price for a player coming off such a rough season on and off the field.
  • Cafardo feels the Cubs and Giants have the best chance at signing John Lackey, who wants to remain in the National League.  The Cardinals have also “kept their toes in the water” for his services.  The Red Sox have checked in on Lackey but are more focused on landing an ace starter.
  • John Boggs, Trevor Cahill’s agent, said his client looks to be a starter again “but he would accept a bullpen spot if he doesn’t secure a starting job.”

Pirates “Shopping” Neil Walker, Have Talked With Orioles

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FRIDAY: The Bucs are “shopping” Walker and have spoken not only with the O’s but with several other clubs, per Jeff Passan of Yahoo Sports (via Twitter).

WEDNESDAY: The Orioles and Pirates discussed a trade that would’ve sent Neil Walker to Baltimore at last week’s GM Meetings, reports Roch Kubatko of MASNsports.com. Baltimore’s initial hope was that Walker could be non-tendered due to his impending raise (MLBTR projects him at $10.7MM in 2016), but the Pirates do plan on tendering him a contract, Kubatko notes. Trade talks between the two sides didn’t get very far, as Pittsburgh’s asking price on Walker was deemed too high.

Eduardo A. Encina of the Baltimore Sun also heard the two sides talked Walker, adding that it’s “pretty evident” that the Pirates are attempting to move Walker (links to Twitter). He classifies talks between the two teams as “off and on.” Rob Biertempfel of the Pittsburgh Tribune-Review hears that the Pirates are fielding offers for Walker, though he doesn’t characterize the desire to move Walker quite as aggressively as Encina does.

Both Kubatko and Encina note that while Walker is a second baseman by trade, the O’s are set there with Jonathan Schoop. Rather, the duo suggests that Walker could see time at first base while spelling Schoop and third baseman Manny Machado on occasion. Kubatko adds that the two sides could revisit talks in Nashville at the Winter Meetings next month and notes that the Pirates are likely seeking young pitching in return.

Per Biertempfel, Pirates GM Neal Huntington appeared on KDKA-FM radio today and said that the team has the resources to retain Walker, closer Mark Melancon ($10MM projection) and first baseman Pedro Alvarez ($8.1MM projection). All three have been suggested as possibilities to leave the organization, however, with Melancon and Walker being trade candidates and Alvarez being either a trade or non-tender candidate. Recently, Jon Heyman noted that the Pirates have fielded offers on all three, plus the rest of their arbitration class.

Walker, who recently turned 30, will be a free agent next winter. He’s coming off a solid, albeit down season at the plate, in which he batted .269/.328/.427 with 16 home runs in 603 plate appearances. Walker has rated as a considerably above-league-average bat by measure of OPS+ (114) and wRC+ (115) in parts of six big league seasons dating back to 2010. A history of back troubles and a pair of fluke injuries — a 2014 appendectomy and a severely lacerated finger in 2013 — have limited him to an average of 136 games per season in that time. He also rates as a below-average defender, though not egregiously so. Defensive Runs Saved pegs him at -10 runs over the course of 6889 innings at second base, and Ultimate Zone Rating feels he’s about six runs below average per 150 games.

The intrigue surrounding Baltimore’s interest in Walker is somewhat dependent on how the team truly feels he’s best deployed. If Baltimore is looking at Walker as an everyday first base option, then that would signal that the team isn’t confident in its ability to retain free agent Chris Davis. If the plan is for Walker to split time between DH, first base, second base, third base and perhaps even the corner outfield, as Encina writes, the interest wouldn’t seem to immediately preclude a reunion with Davis.

Added To The 40-Man Roster: Friday

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Tonight at 8:00pm ET is the deadline for teams to add players to their 40-man roster and thereby protect them from this year’s Rule 5 Draft. In other words: there will be a significant amount of 40-man roster moves made over the course of the next 13 or so hours. Six clubs already made moves to protect prospects from the Rule 5 yesterday, and each of the remaining 24 clubs should make moves today as well.

In brief: players drafted/signed at 18 years of age or younger must be added to the 40-man roster within five years of signing or be exposed to the Rule 5 Draft. Players drafted/signed at 19 or older must be added within four years. Those interested in all of the specifics can refer to articles from MLB.com’s Jonathan Mayo and J.J. Cooper of Baseball America. Perhaps of greater interest is that Mayo lists all of the prospects from MLB.com’s Top 100 list and from their organizational Top 30 lists that much be protected in advance of tonight’s deadline, while Cooper provides brief write-ups on each player that has been protected (and will continue to do so as additions are made).

Here are today’s additions to the 40-man roster. You can check out Baseball America’s coverage to learn more about the individual players listed below …

Earlier Updates

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