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NL Central Notes: Cahill, Cardinals, DH

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Last month, the Boston Globe’s Nick Cafardo reported that Trevor Cahill had offers from the Pirates and Orioles to sign as a starting pitcher, but he turned them down in favor of a relief role with the Cubs. Cafardo noted that Cahill’s preference was to start, but that he preferred to remain in Chicago. Today, Gordon Wittenmyer of the Chicago Sun-Times tweets that, according to Cubs pitching coach Chris Bosio, the Pirates’ offer was for two years. The deal he accepted from the Cubs was only for one year and $4.25MM. It sounds, then, like Cahill’s preference to stay with the Cubs was strong indeed. Here’s more from the NL Central.

  • This offseason hasn’t gone the way the Cardinals had planned, with Jason Heyward and John Lackey heading elsewhere and David Price rejecting them for the Red Sox. But GM John Mozeliak is confident the team has what it needs to succeed, Derrick Goold of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch writes. “I feel like the answer for us is still we feel we have the right pieces,” he says. “If we go out and add an outfielder – where are they going to play? Who is not playing? How does that affect us? What does the short-term view look like vs. the long-term commitment? Honestly, we feel very comfortable with what we have.” Mozeliak says the team likes the idea of giving Randal Grichuk the opportunity to start in center field. The club also likes the idea of giving playing time to Stephen Piscotty and Brandon Moss.
  • Mozeliak says there has lately been “more momentum” for bringing the designated hitter to the National League, according to Goold (on Twitter). Cubs president of baseball operations Theo Epstein also addressed the possibility of the DH coming to the NL today, according to Bruce Miles of the Daily Herald (also on Twitter). “We have so many good hitters coming that we wouldn’t mind the DH,” Epstein says. Against most NL competitors, the DH likely would be an advantage for the Cubs, given their strong group of young hitters and the presence of a defensively-challenged slugger in Kyle Schwarber on their roster. Epstein adds, though, that he doesn’t feel any change to NL rules is imminent.

Players Avoiding Arbitration: Friday

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The deadline for teams to exchange arbitration figures with eligible players is 1pm ET today. Dozens of arb agreements figure to flow in over the next few hours, and we’ll keep track of the smaller arb agreements in this post. All projections referenced are courtesy of MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz and can be viewed on the full list of 156 players that filed for arbitration this year. Remember also that you can keep track of everyone that has avoided arbitration by checking out MLBTR’s Arbitration Tracker.

Onto the agreements…

  • Shortstop Zack Cozart is in agreement with the Reds for an undisclosed sum, per a team announcement. He projected at $2.9MM in his second year of eligibility after a promising start to the 2015 season was cut short by a serious knee injury.
  • The Diamondbacks announced that they have avoided arbitration with righty Rubby De La Rosa for an undisclosed sum. He was projected at $3.2MM but, per Jack Magruder of Fanragsports.com (on Twitter), will earn only $2.35MM.
  • Reliever Fernando Rodriguez settled with the Athletics for $1.05MM — beneath his projected $1.3MM — per the Associated Press.
  • Dodgers infielder Justin Turner will earn $5.1MM next season, Jon Heyman reports on Twitter. That’s just a shade under his $5.3MM projection.
  • The Braves settled with reliever Arodys Vizcaino for $897,500, MLB.com’s Mark Bowman tweets. He had a $1.1MM projection entering the fall.
  • Both Zach Putnam will earn a $975K salary next year after agreeing with the White Sox, per a club announcement. That’s $175K over the projected arb value of the Super Two.
  • The Cardinals settled with first baseman Matt Adams for $1.65MM, Heyman tweets. That’s a small bump over his $1.5MM projections. The team is also in agreement with right-hander Seth Maness, per Derrick Goold of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch. The Super Two reliever projected at $1.2MM but will receive $1.4MM, per MLB.com’s Jenifer Langosch (via Twitter).
  • Righty Tom Koehler receives a $3.5MM payday from the Marlins, per Jon Heyman (via Twitter). The team gets a break on the $3.9MM that had been projected. The team also has an agreement with righties David Phelps and Carter Capps, MLB.com’s Joe Frisaro tweets. Heyman adds (via Twitter) that Phelps will earn exactly his projected amount of $2.5MM. Capps was predicted to earn $800K, but his salary is yet to be reported.
  • The Diamondbacks agreed to a $4.35MM rate with first-year-eligible starter Shelby Miller, Jeff Passan of Yahoo Sports reports on Twitter. He had projected at $4.9MM. Notably, Miller comes in just ahead of fellow 3+ service-class pitcher Harvey (who is covered below). Fellow Arizona hurler Patrick Corbin will earn $2.525MM next year, Passan also tweets.
  • The Nationals have agreed with infielder Danny Espinosa for $2.875MM, Jon Heyman tweets. He gets a slight bump over his $2.7MM projection in his second season of arb eligibility.
  • Nolan Arenado will receive a $5MM salary from the Rockies in his first season of eligibility, Jeff Passan of Yahoo Sports tweets. That’s exactly what fellow star young third baseman Manny Machado settled for as well, though Arenado was a Super Two. As Swartz explained recently, those two players’ cases may well have been tied together despite some important distinctions. He also explained why Arenado might not reach his sky-high $6.6MM projection in actuality.
  • The Orioles have agreed with starter Miguel Gonzalez for $5.1MM, Eduardo Rodriguez of the Baltimore Sun reports on Twitter. Gonzalez projected for $4.9MM.
  • Outfielder Chris Coghlan agreed at $4.8MM with the Cubs, MLB.com’s Carrie Muskat tweets. That’s quite a nice increase over his projected $3.9MM. Also agreeing with Chicago was reliever Pedro Strop, who gets $4.4MM, per Gordon Wittenmyer of the Chicago Sun-Times (via Twitter). He had been projected at $4.7MM.
  • Both righty Michael Pineda (for $4.3MM) and infielder/outfielder Dustin Ackley ($3.2MM), according to Passan (via Twitter) and Jon Heyman (Twitter link). Those numbers largely track the projected amounts of $4.6MM and $3.1MM, respectively.
  • Danny Duffy will play at $4.225MM next year after reaching terms with the Royals, Jeffrey Flanagan of MLB.com reports (Twitter links). Catcher Drew Butera, meanwhile, will get $1,162,500 from Kansas City. Both represented small bumps over their projected values of $4MM and $1.1MM.
  • Marlins closer A.J. Ramos will get $3.4MM in 2016, Heyman reports (Twitter links). Teammate Adeiny Hechavarria, meanwhile, will take down $2.625MM. Both first-year-eligible players went over their projections ($2.8MM and $2.3MM, respectively).
  • The Mets will pay $4.325MM to Matt Harvey and $3MM to shortstop Ruben Tejada for 2016, ESPNNewYork.com’s Adam Rubin reports (Twitter links). Harvey approaches, but doesn’t quite reach, his $4.7MM projection. Though he’s still recovering from an unfortunate leg injury suffered during the post-season, Tejada will take home a cool half-million more than had been projected.
  • Righty Joe Kelly has agreed with the Red Sox at $2.6MM, Rob Bradford of WEEI.com reports. He falls a fair sight shy of the $3.2MM that MLBTR projected. Though he reached ten wins on the year, Kelly scuffled to a 4.82 ERA over his 134 1/3 innings.
  • Righty Drew Hutchison agreed with the Blue Jays for $2.2MM, Ben Nicholson-Smith of Sportsnet.ca reports on Twitter. He falls short of a $2.6MM projection after a tough 2015 campaign.
  • The Tigers have reached terms with shortstop Jose Iglesias for $2.1MM, per another Heyman tweet. The deal also includes some incentives, per the report. That’s a healthy jump up over the $1.5MM projection for the slick-fielding infielder, who did have a strong 2015 season.
  • The Mariners announced that they reached agreement with lefty Charlie Furbush and righty Evan Scribner. Furbush will receive $1.7MM, while Scribner will get $807.5K, Bob Dutton of the Tacoma News Tribune reports.
  • Both shortstop Jean Segura and righty Wily Peralta are under contract with the Brewers, per a team announcement. Segura gets $2.6MM after being projected at $3.2MM, per Heyman (Twitter link). Matt Swartz’s system pegged Peralta at $2.8MM, and that’s exactly what he’ll earn, according to Tom Haudricourt of the Milwaukee Journal-Sentinel (via Twitter).

There are plenty more after the jump:

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Pirates, Mark Melancon Avoid Arbitration

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2:24pm: Melancon will receive $9.65MM for his final season before free agency, according to Bill Brink of the Pittsburgh Post-Gazette (on Twitter).

2:03pm: The Pirates and closer Mark Melancon have avoided arbitration, according to a club announcement. Financial terms have yet to be disclosed, although the All-Star right-hander was projected to earn an even $10MM by MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz. Melancon, a client of Relativity Sports, is entering his final season of club control before reaching the open market as a free agent. With his agreement in place, the Pirates have seemingly avoided arbitration with all of their eligible players, although they’ve yet to announce backup catcher Chris Stewart’s reported two-year contract extension.

Players Avoiding Arbitration: Thursday

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Here are the day’s lower-value arbitration deals, with all projections coming via MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz:

  • The Padres and southpaw Drew Pomeranz have avoided arb by agreeing to a one-year, $1.35MM deal, tweets Ken Rosenthal of FOX Sports. That’s a near-match with Swartz’s projection of $1.3MM. Acquired in an offseason trade with the A’s, Pomeranz will slot into the San Diego ’pen this season and look to build on last season’s 86 innings of 3.66 ERA, during which he averaged 8.6 K.9 and 3.2 BB/9 to complement a 42.2 percent ground-ball rate.
  • Fernando Salas and the Angels are in agreement on a one-year, $2.4MM deal, thereby avoiding a hearing, per Rosenthal. The 30-year-old Salas, who will be a free agent next winter, posted a 4.24 ERA in 63 2/3 innings this past season but had more encouraging peripherals; Salas averaged 10.5 K/9 against 1.7 BB/9 with a 35.1 percent ground-ball rate, prompting FIP (3.15) xFIP (3.23) and SIERA (2.65) to forecast markedly better results.
  • Right-hander Jeanmar Gomez and the Phillies have avoided arb with a one-year, $1.4MM agreement, Rosenthal tweets. The soon-to-be 28-year-old posted a strong 3.01 ERA with 6.0 K/9 against 2.1 BB/9 and also recorded a sound 48.8 percent ground-ball rate in 74 1/3 innings of relief across 65 appearances. He’ll again provide some valuable innings for the rebuilding Phillies.

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Arbitration Breakdown: Aroldis Chapman, Mark Melancon, Kenley Jansen

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Over the next few days, I will be discussing some of the higher profile upcoming arbitration cases. I will rely partly on my arbitration model developed exclusively for MLB Trade Rumors, but will also break out some interesting comparables and determine where the model might be wrong.

Mark Melancon

As young fireballers have gotten more opportunity to close, more arbitration cases with few comparables have emerged. Last year, I wrote about such a foursome of closers who had reached second-year arbitration eligibility, and this year I am writing about two of those closers, Aroldis Chapman and Kenley Jansen, along with Mark Melancon (who I wrote about separately last year). My arbitration model projects each of these pitchers to get raises between $4MM and $4.85MM this winter, each of which would break Jim Johnson’s current record of a $3.88MM raise for a third-year eligible closer.

Depending on how different statistics are weighed, they all have a compelling case to break this record. Johnson’s $3.88MM raise came after he had a 2.49 ERA and 51 saves in 68 2/3 innings, but Johnson struck out just 41 batters that season. He also only had 72 total saves at that point in his career. Although pre-platform performances generally do not matter outside of first-time-eligible arbitration salaries, one large exception I have found is career saves for closers. It is clear that having a history of being a closer matters, which means that Chapman’s 146 career saves, Melancon’s 121 saves, and Jansen’s 142 saves will all help them have better arbitration cases than Johnson did with 72 career saves.

Melancon also had 51 platform-year saves, matching Johnson’s 51 in his platform year in 2012. Along with his 2.23 ERA in 76 2/3 innings, he should have little trouble topping Johnson’s $3.88MM raise after his 2.49 ERA in 68 2/3 innings. Melancon’s $4.6MM projected raise seems about right.

Although Chapman only had 33 platform-year saves, his 1.63 ERA and aforementioned 146 career saves have led him to get an even bigger projected raise than Melancon. His projection actually slightly exceeded the Kimbrel Rule maximum, which is why he is projected for $12.9MM instead of the $13MM figure that was actually forecast by the model. In spite of the lower platform-year save total, Chapman’s vastly superior ERA and greater bulk of career saves give fair reason to assume he will probably get a bigger raise than Melancon, whose case is a straightforward improvement over Jim Johnson’s 2013 case. Both pitchers are likely to get raises between $4MM and $4.85MM.

Kenley Jansen

Kenley Jansen is projected to land a $4MM raise, which would just barely top Johnson’s record. Jansen had 36 platform-year saves, but 142 career saves, so he has fewer platform-year saves but almost double Johnson’s career saves. His platform-year ERA (2.41) is a bit better than Johnson’s was, although it came in fewer innings (52 1/3 versus 68 2/3) due to the fact that Jansen opened the season on the disabled list with a foot injury. I could see Jansen failing to make the case that he should get a larger raise than Johnson did, although if Melancon or Chapman set new records, he could easily argue that those are more applicable comparisons.

It is difficult to find pitchers other than Johnson that would apply to this trio of players. Jose Valverde had 44 platform-year saves going into his 2009 case, in which he earned $3.3MM, and he did have 142 career saves. However, his ERA was 3.38. A year prior to that, Francisco Rodriguez had a $2.95MM raise with similar numbers, but that case would be even more stale than Valverde’s. Joel Hanrahan got a $2.94MM raise with 36 saves going into his 2013 case, but he only had 96 career saves at that point. Johnson’s case against appears more applicable for all three of these closers.

Each of these three players could set the market for each other, so their raises are likely to be highly interdependent. They are also likely to set the market for future closers, now that more players will presumably reach their third year of arbitration eligibility with a career of closing behind them. I think that my model probably has appropriately guessed their salaries for 2016, but if it is wrong, it will probably be either too high on all three, or too low on all three.

Photos courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

Gregory Polanco Open To Extension Talks With Pirates

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Pirates outfielder Gregory Polanco told reporters today that he’d be open once again to exploring an extension with the club, as MLB.com’s Adam Berry was among those to report (Twitter link). But the Bucs haven’t yet re-visited the subject since it was tabled last April, he added.

Notably, the Pirates and Polanco “came very close” to reaching an accord last year, Rob Biertempfel of the Pittsburgh Tribune-Review reports on Twitter (and as Jon Heyman has previously suggested). Biertempfel indicates, though, that the sides are likely to open a new dialogue this spring, as he explains further in a post on the subject.

The new deal yesterday for Dee Gordon — like Polanco, a BHSC client — provides a reminder that extension season is upon us. Spring training has often proved a fertile venue for long-term negotiations, with many deals coming to fruition there — or, sometimes, gaining steam before completion early in the season.

Polanco certainly looks to be a candidate for a multi-year deal after turning in a full and productive big league season last year. He slashed just .256/.320/.381, but turned things on in the second half and also contributed 27 steals. Importantly, too, metrics credit him with big overall value on the bases (5.3 BsR) and with the glove (7.7 UZR, 12 DRS).

While other organizations might prefer to see a lengthier run of production, Pittsburgh has given every indication of being committed to the 24-year-old and would obviously also see some upside in locking him in now, when he’s accumulated only 1.103 years of service.

Prior talks were said to be in the seven or eight-year range, though it’s not clear where things might head now that there’s another season under Polanco’s belt. Certainly, the youngster’s leverage has risen due to his solid campaign and service accumulation, though he also hasn’t yet reached his potentially lofty ceiling.

According to Heyman’s prior reporting, the earlier negotiations did not result in a deal in large part because the parties could not come to an understanding over the option rights that the Pirates would acquire in the contract. While it seemed that a string of three option seasons was a settled element of the package being discussed, both the value (reportedly, $11MM to $13MM) and the timing of the decisions on those options were apparently never resolved.

NL Central Notes: Epstein, Brewers, Oh, Nicasio

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An extension for Cubs president of baseball operations Theo Epstein is “just a matter of time,” team owner Tom Ricketts told reporters, including Gordon Wittenmyer of the Chicago Sun-Times at a charity event on Wednesday. “We talk all the time, and it comes up,” Ricketts explained, adding that he is “on the same page” with Epstein in that regard. Epstein, of course, is entering the final season of his five-year contract with the Cubs, though given the manner in which Chicago has returned to prominence in the NL Central and the team’s very positive long-term outlook, it’d come as a surprise if the two sides didn’t work out a new contract.

Here’s more from the division…

  • Brewers GM David Stearns wouldn’t disclose whether he will continue the “file and trial” approach to arbitration that the Brewers have employed in recent years, writes MLB.com’s Adam McCalvy. For those unfamiliar, “file and trial” teams cease negotiating one-year deals with players once arbitration figures are exchanged — which will happen this Friday. While some file-and-trial clubs will continue negotiating multi-year deals after arb figures are exchanged, such teams will head to a hearing if no multi-year deal talks are in the works. The Brewers have three arbitration-eligible players — Wily Peralta, Jean Segura and Will Smith. Stearns said he didn’t expect any updates on the trio’s contract status until closer to the exchange deadline.
  • Seung-hwan Oh told reporters in Korea, including Jee-ho Yoo of the Yonhap News Agency, that he got the impression all throughout negotiations with the Cardinals that the team felt it needed him, and he’s happy with the deal he received. Oh apologized to his Korean fans for some legal troubles that he incurred which resulted in a 72-game suspension from the KBO, though his actions wouldn’t have warranted any consequences in the United States. Oh was suspended for gambling at an overseas casino in Japan (not on baseball), which is against the KBO’s rules. He’d be forced to miss a half season if he returned to Korea’s top league, though he spoke like a man who doesn’t intend to do so in the near future, saying he hoped to reach the World Series and wouldn’t be satisfied with an ERA over 3.00. Instead, Oh said, he hopes to keep that number closer to 2.00 — a threshold with which he is familiar after a stellar career in both Korea and Japan. Oh said he doesn’t plan to add a new pitch but might rely more heavily on his split-finger. He’s also looking forward to a potential showdown with countryman and new division rival Jung Ho Kang, who was 4-for-13 with a homer off Oh in Korea, per Yoo.
  • Pirates GM Neal Huntington told reporters, including Rob Biertempfel of the Pittsburgh Tribune-Review, that right-hander Juan Nicasio will be stretched out in Spring Training so that he may serve as depth in a number of roles (Twitter link). Depending on how Nicasio fares, he could be used as rotation depth, a long man or in middle relief, according to Biertempfel. Nicasio was a bit wild but had generally strong results out of the L.A. bullpen last season, working to a 3.86 ERA with 10.0 K/9 against 4.9 BB/9.

Pirates Release Tony Sanchez

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JAN. 13: The Pirates released Sanchez today, according to Stephen J. Nesbitt of the Pittsburgh Post-Gazette (Twitter link).

JAN. 6: The Pirates announced that catcher Tony Sanchez has been designated for assignment in order to clear a spot on the roster for right-hander Neftali Feliz, whose reported one-year, $3.9MM contract with the Bucs is now official.

Sanchez, formerly selected with the fourth overall pick in the June draft (2009), received just nine plate appearances in the Majors this past season and has only 155 Major League plate appearances under his belt. In that time, he’s compiled a .259/.303/.378 batting line with four homers. Sanchez has been about average in his 51 big league contests in the eyes of pitch-framing metrics, but he’s also struggled to control the running game, throwing out just 17 percent of attempted base-stealers (5 of 30). Those throwing struggles have also existed at Triple-A in recent years, though his bat at the top minor league level has been better, as he owns a .248/.342/.415 batting line at the Triple-A level across parts of four seasons.

The 27-year-old Sanchez will now be in limbo for up to 10 days as the Pirates explore trade options. Pittsburgh can elect to place him on outright waivers at any time in that window, at which point clubs throughout the league will have the ability to claim him, in the reverse order of last year’s standings.

Pirates, Daniel Bard Agree To Minor League Deal

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The Pirates and right-hander Daniel Bard have agreed to a minor league contract, per reports from MLB.com’s Adam Berry (links to Twitter) and the Pittsburgh Tribune-Review’s Rob Biertempfel (Twitter link).

Bard, now 30 years of age, was once a lights-out setup man for the Red Sox but has pitched just a single inning in the Major Leagues dating back to 2013 due to a landslide of injuries resulting in severe control problems and, ultimately, surgery to relieve throacic outlet syndrome. Bard has been largely absent from baseball since 2013, throwing just 17 1/3 innings across multiple minor league levels, the Puerto Rican Winter League and the aforementioned one inning with Boston.

From 2009-11, Bard was outstanding, however, posting a 2.88 ERA in a considerably more hitter-friendly era than today’s game even a few short years later. That 2.88 ERA, when adjusted for the league and Bard’s home of Fenway Park, resulted in a 154 ERA+, indicating that he was 54 percent better than a league-average pitcher. He averaged 9.7 K/9 and 3.5 BB/9 in that time to go along with a well-above-average ground-ball rate and a fastball that averaged better than 97 mph.

Bard told Berry that the Pirates’ history of reclamation projects with pitchers made Pittsburgh an appealing destination for him as he seeks to revive his career. “They seem to help out the Pirates a lot, and the Pirates seem to help them out a lot,” said Bard of pitchers that have revitalized their careers with the Bucs. Among the most notable names to have turned their careers around in Pittsburgh in recent years are A.J. Burnett, Francisco Liriano and Edinson Volquez.

NL Central Notes: Pena, Cardinals, Sanchez, Pirates

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In a piece for The Players’ Tribune, Cardinals catcher Brayan Pena discusses his dramatic defection from Cuba as a 16-year-old and the emotions behind his return to his home country last year as part of a MLBPA goodwill tour with other Cuban players.  Here’s some news from around the NL Central…

  • The Cardinals should be punished beyond just a fine for the computer breach scandal involving the Astros’ player evaluation database, Yahoo Sports’ Jeff Passan opines.  Even a substantial fine might not be enough of a deterrent for a wealthy team like the Cards, so Passan believes that Major League Baseball needs to take away future draft picks, or funds from the Cardinals’ amateur draft or international signing pools.
  • Tony Sanchez tells Rob Biertempfel of the Pittsburgh Tribune-Review that he wasn’t surprised when the Pirates designated him for assignment earlier this week.  “I dug my own grave.  When I started having throwing issues, I knew they lost trust in me. And if you can’t trust your catcher, you can’t play him,” Sanchez said.  The catcher was the fourth overall pick of the 2009 draft but has yet to deliver on that promise in the majors; Sanchez has a .259/.303/.378 line over 155 plate appearances since 2013.  As Sanchez noted, he also had trouble throwing out baserunners at the both the big league and Triple-A level.
  • The signing of Neftali Feliz indicates that the Pirates still put a premium on hard-throwing arms, Travis Sawchik of the Pittsburgh Tribune-Review writes.  The Bucs’ average fastball velocity has increased every season since Neal Huntington took over was GM, culminating in a league-leading 94mph average in 2015.  Feliz is also another investment for the Pirates bullpen, as Sawchik notes that the club is projected to be spending about a quarter of its payroll (roughly $23.7MM) on five relievers.
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