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NL Central Notes: Liriano, Pirates, Brewers, Cardinals, Tanking

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Francisco Liriano embodies the rising trend of pitchers throwing fewer pitches in the strike zone than ever, writes Fangraphs’ August Fagerstrom. In 2014-15, Liriano recorded to two lowest single-season zone percentage marks (the number of pitches thrown in the designated strike zone) since the stat began being tracked. However, he also coerced opposing hitters into chasing more than a third of his out-of-zone pitches, yielding high quality results in his third year with the Pirates. As Fagerstrom notes, though, the decrease of pitches in the strike zone is not confined to Liriano’s left arm but is rather a league-wide phenomenon. And, despite the rapidly decreasing number of pitches thrown in the zone, hitters are failing to adjust and continuing to chase. While it’s not the case with Liriano specifically, Fagerstrom hypothesizes that the record levels of velocity throughout the game mean hitters must be more geared up for velocity than ever before, thereby limiting their ability to recognize and lay off breaking pitches out of the zone. Additionally, he speculates that the fact that umpires are continuing to expand the strike zone creates a greater urgency within hitters to protect themselves at the plate. It’s an interesting analysis that’s well worth reading in its entirety. (Additionally, while his column doesn’t state this, Fagerstrom’s analysis reminds how strong Liriano’s work was in the first season of a three-year, $39MM investment that right now looks to be an excellent move for the club.)

Onto some other items pertaining more closely to the Pirates and their division…

  • The Pirates will face a challenge in replacing Francisco Cervelli, who hits free agency next winter, writes Travis Sawchik of the Pittsburgh Tribune-Review. The Pirates have picked up a trio of excellent pitch-framers in Cervelli, Russell Martin and Chris Stewart in recent years, but the Martin contract shows what a premium the market now places on catcher defense, Sawchik notes, thus making it seem unlikely that they’ll re-sign Cervelli, who could end up as the market’s most valuable catcher. Sawchik sees no chance that the two sides will hammer out an extension, and he points out that while top prospect Reese McGuire draws strong praise for his glovework, he can’t be expected to be a contributor before 2018.
  • Later in that same piece, Sawchik notes that the Pirates’ front office has taken a number of significant hits this winter — the most recent of which is the loss of Tyrone Brooks to the Commissioner’s Office. Brooks, the former director of player personnel, oversaw the team’s international and pro scouting efforts and played a large role in the acquisition of Jung Ho Kang. The Pirates have also lost special assistants Jim Benedict (who was renowned for his work with the team’s pitchers) and Marc DelPiano — both of whom left the organization to take positions with the Marlins.
  • There’s been little in the way of trade talk surrounding Brewers right fielder Ryan Braun, Jon Heyman tweeted recently. Milwaukee has made more of an effort with catcher Jonathan Lucroy to this point, per Heyman, perhaps due to the club’s recognition of what would be a limited market for Braun. The asking price on Lucroy is said to be high, though Lucroy himself is open to a deal. As for Braun, his five-year, $105MM extension begins this season, but his value has been tarnished by a PED suspension as well as offseason back surgery and a nerve issue in his thumb that twice required a cryotherapy treatment last year. Braun did enjoy a nice season at the plate, however, hitting .285/.356/.498 with 25 homers and 24 steals.
  • Cardinals shortstop Jhonny Peralta’s second-half decline may have been part of the impetus to trade for Jedd Gyorko, writes Rick Hummel of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch. While Peralta himself said this past weekend that he doesn’t feel he wore down late in the year and always wants to play in as many games as possible, the 33-year-old batted just .247/.313/.305 over the season’s final two months. Hummel writes that Gyorko could be used to spell Peralta at third base despite a suspect glove at the position. Moreover, he notes that Aledmys Diaz, fresh off a monster second half and Arizona Fall League showing, could soon knock on the door to the Majors. “We’re excited where he is,” said GM John Mozeliak of Diaz. “I think you’ll probably see (Diaz) playing in the big leagues at some point this year, I wouldn’t rule that out at all and I welcome that.” Peralta expressed comfort with moving anywhere on the diamond, should the need arise, citing previous experience at third base and even at first base and in the outfield.
  • “Tanking” has become a popular buzzword due to the number of rebuilding clubs in the National League, but Fangraphs’ Dave Cameron rejects the idea that any of the so-called tanking teams is actually trying to lose as many games as possible. The Brewers have held onto the likes of Lucroy and Will Smith thus far despite favorable contracts that appeal to other clubs, and they haven’t paid down a significant portion of Braun’s deal to move his bat, either — a reasonable expectation for a club gunning for the No. 1 pick. The Reds have prioritized proximity to the Majors over long-term upside in trades of veterans and haven’t made an effort to move their best player, Joey Votto, Cameron writes. The Braves have signed Nick Markakis and targeted MLB-ready help like Shelby Miller, Ender Inciarte and Hector Olivera in trades over the past 15 months, to say nothing of their Nick Markakis signing (and, I might add, the complementary signings of A.J. Pierzynski, Jason Grilli, Jim Johnson and others). The Phillies are the only team that could reasonably fit the definition of “tanking” we see in the NBA, writes Cameron, but the best players in baseball can’t influence a team in the same manner they can in basketball. And, he rhetorically asks, would baseball truly be better off if the Phillies followed the path the Rockies have for the past several years — staunchly refusing to trade veterans (prior to this summer’s Troy Tulowitzki deal) and remaining in a noncompetitive state as opposed to “bottoming out in the hopes of bouncing back to high levels?”

Prospect Notes: Dodgers, Cuba, Reed

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The Dodgers’ Triple-A squad made a remarkable 334 transactions last season with 84 different players appearing in a game, writes Bill Plunkett of Baseball America. Director of player development Gabe Kapler implied that the big league club will continue to make frequent use of their minor league rosters as a way to shuffle depth around. Such a strategy can be particularly useful with back-of-the-roster pitching like spot starters and over-taxed young relievers.

  • Cuba’s Ciego De Avila club will represent the island nation in the upcoming Caribbean Series, writes Ben Badler of Baseball America. The tournament begins on February 1. International tournaments are a commonly used opportunity to defect and join the majors. The most notable players in attendance will be Yulieski Gourriel, his young brother Lourdes Gourriel, and Alfredo Despaigne. Badler calls Yulieski, 31, the top player in Cuba, citing a .494/.586/.861 line in 215 plate appearances. Lourdes better fits the role of prospect – he’s 22 with a .340/.400/.561 slash. Badler calls him one of Cuba’s top five players. Despaigne is the best Cuban slugger. He hit .258/.352/.462 in 409 plate appearances last season for Japan’s Chiba Lotte Marines. While those are the biggest names to watch, there’s no telling which, if any, players will defect.
  • MLB.com’s Jim Callis has unveiled his first base prospect rankings with the Astros’ A.J. Reed taking the top spot. Reed’s excellent first full season included some truly gaudy stats – 34 home runs, 113 runs, and 127 RBI. Callis notes that he still has to prove he can hit advanced left-handed pitching. Pirates prospect Josh Bell and Mets first baseman Dominic Smith are next up in Callis’ Top 10.

Central Notes: Royals, Indians, Pirates

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One of the keys to the Royals’ success is their chemistry, Tigers third baseman Nick Castellanos tells FOX Sports’ Jon Morosi. “What the Royals do so good, is they’re very good at coming together. They know how to win,” Castellanos says. Part of the key, from Castellanos’ perspective, is that the Royals’ core has been in the same organization for so long. (Morosi points out, for example, that Eric Hosmer and Salvador Perez played together all the way back in rookie ball, for the 2008 Idaho Falls Chukars.) “We have pretty good team chemistry, too. But the Royals, I guess, have a deeper connection because that whole nucleus came up together and played together,” says Castellanos. The Royals haven’t been shy about spending in free agency this winter, but Morosi argues that their success is built on a connection that can’t be bought on the open market. Here are more quick notes from the Central divisions.

  • The Indians have announced that they’ve named Koby Perez their new director of Latin American scouting. Baseball America’s Ben Badler provides some good background on Perez’s career — Perez joined the Indians organization two offseasons ago, but prior to that, he was with the Phillies, for whom he was involved with a solid collection of signings that included those of Maikel Franco, Domingo Santana, Hector Neris and Lisalverto Bonilla. Prior to that, Perez was a scout in the Cardinals organization.
  • In another front office move, the Pirates have lost director of player personnel Tyrone Brooks, who will be taking a job in the commissioner’s office, as the Pittsburgh Tribune-Review’s Rob Biertempfel tweets. Brooks’ departure isn’t the first from the Pirates front office after the organization’s three straight Wild Card berths — the team also recently lost pitching guru Jim Benedict and special assistant Marc DelPiano to the Marlins. As Biertempfel previously reported, Brooks oversaw the Pirates’ pro scouting and international scouting areas, and he played a significant role in the Bucs’ successful signing of Jung Ho Kang last winter. Brooks had previously interviewed for the Brewers’ open GM job.

NL Central Notes: Bastardo, Pirates, Rosenthal, Lucroy, Peraza

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The Pirates made an effort to re-sign left-hander Antonio Bastardo, tweets Baseball Essential’s Robert Murray. Pittsburgh was willing to offer the lefty a two-year, $8MM contract to return to the bullpen, but he eclipsed that mark fairly handily in landing a total of $12MM over the life of his two-year deal with the Mets. Bastardo reportedly drew varying levels of interest from the Dodgers, Orioles, Blue Jays and Twins in addition to Pittsburgh and New York. From my vantage point, given the willingness to go to two years on Bastardo and the lack of internal options on the 40-man roster beyond excellent setup man Tony Watson and DFA reclamation Kyle Lobstein, the Pirates make sense as a landing spot for a veteran lefty on a one-year deal.

Elsewhere in the NL Central…

  • The upcoming wave of collective bargaining negotiations will be a critical one for small-market teams like the Pirates, writes USA Today’s Bob Nightengale, who spoke to Pirates owner Bob Nutting for the column. Nutting spoke about how he’d “love to see [Andrew McCutchen] stay with us forever,” though as Nightengale notes, that’s a difficult proposition considering Pittsburgh’s payroll constraints and the robust free agent prices (specifically, Nightengale references Jason Heyward’s deal, though comparing a 26-year-old to McCutchen, who will be entering his age-32 season when hitting the open market after 2018, is somewhat of an imperfect analogy). Revenue sharing and possible alterations to the luxury tax in an attempt to level the playing field, to some extent, will both be topics of discussion, Nightengale notes, though as he points out, it’s unlikely that the Pirates, Brewers, Indians and other small-market clubs will ever be able to spend at the level of the Dodgers, Yankees and Red Sox. Nutting feels this CBA will be “critically” important to small-market clubs and hopes steps are taken to give such teams greater access to talent acquisition.
  • Cardinals closer Trevor Rosenthal tells Ben Frederickson and Derrick Goold of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch that there have been no talks of a long-term deal with the team at this point. “As far as contractual, multi-year type things, I guess we haven’t had any talks,” said Rosenthal. “I don’t know what they’re thinking, what we’re thinking. I don’t know how any of that looks because I haven’t gone through it. Going through the arbitration process was pretty good. Smooth. I’m happy with how it ended up.” That’s a perhaps unsurprising revelation, as Rosenthal is represented by Scott Boras, whose clients rarely take contract extensions prior to hitting the open market. Beyond that, Rosenthal is already earning significant money in arbitration, having agreed to a $5.6MM salary for the 2016 season last week.
  • Brewers catcher Jonathan Lucroy, who candidly expressed his frustration with the team’s rebuilding process yesterday, tells Tom Haudricourt of the Milwaukee Journal-Sentinel that he’s working to avoid further concussions after suffering a serious one late in the 2015 season. Specifically, Lucroy explained that doctors and team trainers have preached neck strengthening exercises, as studies have shown that neck strength can help to limit the impact of a concussion.
  • Fangraphs’ Jeff Sullivan examines the decline in Lucroy’s pitch-framing marks over the past four years and whether or not the Brewers (or an acquiring team) should expect him to bounce back in that regard. Sullivan’s research finds that catchers that see their pitch-framing numbers decline rarely experience a rebound in that particular metric, and perhaps more troubling, finds that Lucroy’s decline has been the most rapid of virtually any catcher in the league. As Sullivan notes, quantifiable pitch-framing metrics are relatively new, so there are some uncertainties with the information and there could be elements not being considered. Nonetheless, the initial returns on his examination don’t paint a particularly bright picture.
  • Because Brandon Phillips elected not to waive his no-trade rights earlier this offseason, Reds fans could see newly acquired prospect Jose Peraza at a number of positions in 2016, writes MLB.com’s Mark Sheldon. “I think it’s important to remember that Peraza has played a lot at shortstop,” GM Dick Williams tells Sheldon. “He has played center field. There’s a chance we could see him in different spots. I don’t think getting playing time for him will be an issue. We’d gladly take an approach where we get him some time at different areas and see where he can be of assistance to the team.” Sheldon notes that one means of enticing Phillips to approve a trade would be to reduce his playing time somewhat in favor of Peraza, though that could result in some clubhouse problems by making a still-productive veteran feel slighted by the organization.

Pirates Extend Chris Stewart

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4:10pm: The Pirates have announced the two-year extension and third-year club option via press release.

JAN. 19, 3:39pm: Stewart has passed his physical, and his deal will be announced soon, reports SB Nation’s Chris Cotillo. Per Cotillo, Stewart will earn $3MM over the life of the deal. That includes salaries of $1.35MM in 2016, $1.4MM in 2017 and a $250K buyout on a $1.5MM option for the 2018 season (links to Twitter).

JAN. 14: The Pirates have reached agreement on a two-year extension with backstop Chris Stewart, according to a report from Robert Murray of Baseball Essential (Twitter link). The deal will reportedly also come with a club option for a third season.

MLBTR had projected Stewart to earn $1.6MM this season in his final year of arbitration eligibility. Instead of just taking a single-season payout, he’ll promise away one free agent season and leave another in the control of the Pirates.

Stewart, 33, has taken 1,060 plate appearances in parts of nine seasons in the majors. He’s settled in as a reserve for the Bucs over the last two years, slashing .292/.340/.336 (without a single home run or stolen base) in that period. He’s a highly-rated pitch framer and was charged with just one passed ball last year, though he’s caught less than a quarter of the baserunners who’ve tried to steal on him in Pittsburgh.

While the guaranteed salary has yet to be reported, it seems obvious with the move that Pittsburgh intends to utilize Stewart as its backup for at least the next two seasons. What remains unclear is whether the organization will be able to work out a multi-year arrangement with starter Francisco Cervelli, who had a breakout 2015 campaign and is also entering his final year of arbitration control.

Pirates Designate Yoervis Medina For Assignment

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The Pirates announced that they have designated right-hander Yoervis Medina for assignment. Medina’s DFA will clear a spot on the 40-man roster for fellow right-hander A.J. Schugel, whom the team claimed off waivers from the Mariners organization earlier this afternoon.

Medina spent most of the 2015 season in the Cubs organization after being acquired in exchange for Welington Castillo. Medina delivered strong results for the 2013-14 Mariners, pitching to a combined 2.81 ERA with 9.4 K/9, 4.9 BB/9 and a 53.5 percent ground-ball rate before taking a significant step backwards in 2015. This past season, he logged a 4.71 ERA with an unsightly 16-to-11 K/BB ratio in 21 innings for the Mariners and Cubs. Notably, his fastball velocity, which had averaged 94.8 mph in 2014, sat a full two miles per hour lower at 92.8 in 2015, and his ground-ball rate dipped to 36.8 percent. Medina’s struggles weren’t confined to the Major Leagues, either. He also recorded 40 innings of Triple-A work between the two teams but limped to a 5.62 ERA with 8.8 K/9 against 5.0 BB/9.

The Pirates had claimed Medina in late December, but since his acquisition they’ve added Neftali Feliz on a big league deal and now also claimed Schugel, both of whom surpassed Medina on the depth chart. Another club could look at Medina’s track record and see an arm with some upside that can be controlled for another four seasons, though his loss of velocity and Triple-A struggles certainly give teams plenty of reason for pause.

Pirates Claim A.J. Schugel

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The Pirates have claimed righty A.J. Schugel off waivers from the Mariners, Pittsburgh announced. A corresponding move was not announced.

Schugel has found himself bouncing around the wire this winter. First, he was bumped from the Diamondbacks’ roster to make way for Zack Greinke. Seattle claimed him but set him loose to add Joe Wieland. And now he’s landed in Pittsburgh.

The 26-year-old threw 115 1/3 innings of 4.84 ERA pitching with 6.2 K/9 against 2.5 BB/9 in his second attempt at Triple-A last year. He did earn his first brief call-up to the majors, though, and has more success in the lower levels of the minors in prior seasons.

Central Notes: Lucroy, Cardinals, Aiken

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As the United States celebrates one of its greatest heroes, the Reverend Martin Luther King, Jr., it’s worth remembering that his cause, and even his own story, have many links with baseball. The wonderful Negro League Museum, which captures a uniquely compelling and important segment of American and baseball history, provides some incredible photos to drive this point home today (Twitter links). MLB.com’s Mike Bertha explores those connections in honor of King. And as Examiner.com reminds us, you’ll want to revisit this Time story featuring a King anecdote from legendary Dodgers hurler Don Newcombe.

The threads of history extend everywhere, of course; as Stephen Nesbitt of the Pittsburgh Post-Gazette explores, Pirates reliever Tony Watson’s great uncle, Tom Offenburger, served as an aide to King and the Southern Christian Leadership Conference. On this somber but grateful day, here are some notes from the game’s central divisions:

  • A pre-season trade of Brewers backstop Jonathan Lucroy appears to be increasingly unlikely, Tom Haudricourt of the Milwaukee Journal-Sentinel suggests (Twitter links). Milwaukee has put a justifiably steep price tag on the veteran, says Haudricourt, and it seems that “has scared off suitors.” Of course, it’s probably fair to add that the situation still warrants attention this spring. A strong Cactus League showing from Lucroy and/or a key injury for a contender could quickly shift the balance of considerations.
  • There’s no getting around the fact that some of the Cardinals’ most important players are getting up in years, Derrick Goold of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch writes, but that aging core still has plenty of confidence entering 2016. “Nobody likes being called old, right?” said veteran right-hander Adam Wainwright. “But I think they’re right, for the most part. We are aging. We’re just becoming more wise. Somebody has to get old. If we’re still playing and older it means we still have some ability.” As Wainwright and owner Bill DeWitt Jr. rightly point out, too, it isn’t as if the organization lacks for any talented, younger players on its major league roster. Still, St. Louis remains one of the more interesting clubs to watch as it tries to defend its N.L. Central crown against two strong challengers in the Pirates and Cubs.
  • Indians lefty Brady Aiken is excited to be back on the bump, MLB.com’s Jordan Bastian reports. The high-ceiling youngster, who famously failed to sign with the Astros as the top overall pick before landing in Cleveland after being taken 17th overall last year, is still on a Tommy John rehab program but threw his first pitches from the mound last week. Both team and player have positive vibes from his first months in the organization, per the report, but the 19-year-old obviously has a long way to go both to regain his full physical health and then to start the grinding climb toward the majors.

NL Central Notes: Cubs, Epstein, Cardinals, Pirates

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The Cubs are eyeing their own television network for when their current deal expires in 2020, writes Jesse Rogers of ESPN. If the team goes the route of running their own network, they could launch something as soon as 2018. For now they continue to talk to outside suitors. President of business operations Crane Kenney said, “as we have conversations, which are ongoing, if someone offers us something dramatically better we’ll look at it.” He also noted that ongoing issues in the cable universe would be monitored.

Here’s more from the NL Central:

  • Theo Epstein sees himself “staying in the exact same role for a long time,” reports Carrie Muskat of MLB.com. Epstein’s contract with the Cubs expires after the 2016 season, but it doesn’t sound as though there’s any chance he’ll go elsewhere. Notably, ace pitcher Jake Arrieta is the club’s only unsigned arbitration player. Per Epstein, “I’m more worried about the team. Honestly, I want to take care of the players first, and then we’ll go from there.” Reading between the lines, it sounds like owner Tom Ricketts and Epstein may resolve their talks once Arrieta’s contract is finalized.
  • The Cardinals hope catcher Yadier Molina will be available for Opening Day, but they’re hunting for backups just in case, writes Jenifer Langosch of MLB.com. Molina had a setback recovering from a thumb injury which has put his early season status in jeopardy. The team does have reliable backup Brayan Pena on the roster, but the only other catcher on the 40-man is minor leaguer Mike Ohlman.
  • Jon Niese could be Pirates pitching coach Ray Searage’s next project, writes Rob Biertempfel of the Pittsburgh Tribune-Review. Searage has developed a reputation as a pitching “wizard” after working with Francisco Liriano, Edinson Volquez, J.A. Happ, and others. The Pirates have benefited greatly from Searage’s tutelage as they’ve maximized the value of their buy-low trades and free agent pitching contracts. I’d add that Juan Nicasio is another reclamation project to watch.

NL Central Notes: Cahill, Cardinals, DH

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Last month, the Boston Globe’s Nick Cafardo reported that Trevor Cahill had offers from the Pirates and Orioles to sign as a starting pitcher, but he turned them down in favor of a relief role with the Cubs. Cafardo noted that Cahill’s preference was to start, but that he preferred to remain in Chicago. Today, Gordon Wittenmyer of the Chicago Sun-Times tweets that, according to Cubs pitching coach Chris Bosio, the Pirates’ offer was for two years. The deal he accepted from the Cubs was only for one year and $4.25MM. It sounds, then, like Cahill’s preference to stay with the Cubs was strong indeed. Here’s more from the NL Central.

  • This offseason hasn’t gone the way the Cardinals had planned, with Jason Heyward and John Lackey heading elsewhere and David Price rejecting them for the Red Sox. But GM John Mozeliak is confident the team has what it needs to succeed, Derrick Goold of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch writes. “I feel like the answer for us is still we feel we have the right pieces,” he says. “If we go out and add an outfielder – where are they going to play? Who is not playing? How does that affect us? What does the short-term view look like vs. the long-term commitment? Honestly, we feel very comfortable with what we have.” Mozeliak says the team likes the idea of giving Randal Grichuk the opportunity to start in center field. The club also likes the idea of giving playing time to Stephen Piscotty and Brandon Moss.
  • Mozeliak says there has lately been “more momentum” for bringing the designated hitter to the National League, according to Goold (on Twitter). Cubs president of baseball operations Theo Epstein also addressed the possibility of the DH coming to the NL today, according to Bruce Miles of the Daily Herald (also on Twitter). “We have so many good hitters coming that we wouldn’t mind the DH,” Epstein says. Against most NL competitors, the DH likely would be an advantage for the Cubs, given their strong group of young hitters and the presence of a defensively-challenged slugger in Kyle Schwarber on their roster. Epstein adds, though, that he doesn’t feel any change to NL rules is imminent.
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