Adam Dunn

The grip that batting average seems to have on people is undeniable.  I’m not trying to sound snarky here; I just think it’s crazy that hitting .380 for a week may be changing the public sentiment about Adam Dunn.

Lonnie Wheeler of the Cincinnati Post seems to be saying that Dunn’s strikeouts are…unprofessional.  But I really don’t think it’s a lack of diligence or effort.  Dunn just has an all-or-nothing style, which is easy to rag on when he’s going bad (his last two months of 2006 were awful). 

A lot of players can post an unusually high batting average over a month or two’s time.  David Newhan made a career out of a nice stretch in 2004.  I still think Dunn’s going to hit .250 or so this year.  He’s made contact in 71% of his ABs this year, as opposed to 65% last year and 69% the year before.  All signs point toward regression, even with Brook Jacoby around. 

Regardless of his batting average, I think Dunn’s $13MM option for 2008 is a no-brainer.  PECOTA feels the same.  But will Wayne Krivsky and the Cincinnati media agree?  If not, Dunn could be traded this summer.

This time of year we hear a lot about guys entering their walk years or guys with questionable team options for 2008.  Is Adam Dunn one such player?

The Reds have a $13MM option on him for ’08.  Obviously, they’ll take the wait and see approach after Dunn slipped to .234/.365/.490 last year.  PECOTA thinks he’ll bounce all the way back to .267/.390/.574 this season.

For ’08, they have him hitting .267/.398/.581, perhaps his peak season at age 28.  He could be worth $18MM according to BP’s projection system.  Unless Dunn completely flops this season, the option should be exercised.  Even if he reaches the midpoint of his projection and ’06 performance, it’s probably a smart move.  How many teams wouldn’t sign Dunn for one year and $13MM?

As far as Reds of the future, Jay Bruce will probably end up in right and Joey Votto at first.  That still leaves room for Dunn and his 40+ HRs in left.

Is it possible, in this day and age, for a player like Adam Dunn to be undervalued?  I think so.  As Lonnie Wheeler informs us, it’s "not working" with the big guy.  Dunn turns 27 in November.  He’ll make $10.5MM in 2007 and has a $13MM club option for ’08.

So what exactly isn’t working with Dunn?  He’s hit 126 home runs over the past three seasons.  Only David Ortiz and Albert Pujols have more.  Dunn also has a .380 OBP over the last three seasons.  Better than Carlos Delgado, David Wright, Mark Teixeira, Miguel Tejada, Carlos Beltran, Aramis Ramirez, or Andruw Jones.

The problems, of course, are the strikeouts and low batting averages.  Sportswriters just can’t take this.  You just can’t convince some people that a guy who hits .240 and whiffs 190 times is a premiere player.

Dunn slipped all the way to .229/.360/.416 after the All-Star break, and that certainly contributed to the Reds’ demise.  But I don’t think 250 ABs should erase Dunn’s previous body of work.  He’s pretty close to a lock for 40 HRs and a .370 OBP.  You better believe that’s worth $10 mil.  Baseball Prospectus says Dunn is worth about $53MM for 2007-10. 

I wouldn’t be surprised to see some smart team fleece Wayne Krivsky for Dunn.  You’ll notice I said smart,which probably rules out the Cubs.  That’s a shame – would Bob Howry and Scott Eyre get it done?  One could envision the Blue Jays, Red Sox, White Sox, A’s, Rangers, Brewers, or Diamondbacks acquiring Dunn this winter. 

There hasn’t been a whole lot of activity on the trade rumor front in recent days, but I’ll keep digging.  In the event that there are just no rumors to report, I’ll step slightly outside of the rumor realm to talk about contracts, analyze teams, and whatever else suits my baseball fancy.  I hope you continue to engage in discussion here and check out the site daily.

Anywho, Buster Olney had a thought this morning in his blog that definitely had not occurred to me:

"The first thing I thought of when I saw the Reds had signed Scott Hatteberg was that now Cincinnati has protection in the event they decide to move Adam Dunn in a deal for pitching."

In reference to Hatteberg’s role, new Reds GM Wayne Krivsky remarked, "The playing time will take care of itself."

One can certainly question whether Hatteberg could serve as even a league average regular first baseman in Dunn’s absence.  He hit .256/.334/.343 last year in 464 ABs.  There’s a chance Hatteberg returns to the .780 OPS level, but that’s still well below the .843 mark posted by the average NL first baseman in 2005.

The Reds led the National League with 222 HRs in 2005 but had a league-worst 5.15 ERA.  The need for pitching is manifest.  In an Orange County Register article this morning, Randy Youngman mentioned that the Reds are rumored to be interested in free agent Jeff Weaver.  However, the Angels are the only known team with an offer currently on the table.

As far as free agent starting pitching goes, the options are grim outside of Weaver.  Some possible retreads for the Reds:  Pedro Astacio, Kevin Brown, Jose Lima, and Jamey Wright.  Only a year removed from 130 solid innings for the Yanks, I still think Brown is worth a look.  But he’s neither reliable nor a long-term solution.  That brings us to the idea of trading Dunn for starting pitching.

Dunn becomes a free agent after the 2007 season, so the Reds shouldn’t be in any big hurry.  It’s well known that the Astros hope to lure him to his hometown, as Houston has already gone to great lengths to "butter him up."  The Reds have not discussed a multi-year deal with Dunn. 

Dunn was worth 6.9 wins last year despite playing with a broken hand.  He was the fourth-best left fielder in baseball last year according to WARP, above Hideki Matsui and Manny Ramirez.  Ranked as a first baseman, Dunn probably should be grouped with Carlos Delgado and Richie Sexson.  A brief comparison would indicate that Dunn is due for a four-year, $52MM contract.  However, he’s at least five years younger than any of the aforementioned players. 

Assuming the Reds are looking for affordable starting pitching with potential, which teams have the need for power and could part with a starter?

I’d say the Braves might make a play, given that they could part with Jorge Sosa and Chuck James to add Dunn.  But the club seems content with LaRoche/Langerhans/Johnson manning the 1B/LF spots, and that’s worth a shot.

Would the Twins deal from their strength and send Scott Baker to the Reds?  Doesn’t seem like their style.  Dunn would probably be out of their price range, though he’d be a huge upgrade over Shannon Stewart.

The Orioles could consider shipping off Erik Bedard or Daniel Cabrera to add Dunn, but they’re not exactly pitching-rich right now.  Such a trade would create a new problem for the O’s.

Jake Westbrook is expendable, but the Indians would have to include Adam Miller or Jeremy Sowers as well.  This could be a trade that could help both teams, in my mind.

The Jays could give up Gustavo Chacin, but the Reds would likely ask for Dustin McGowan in any deal.  Top pitching prospects of this nature are rarely traded, though it would fit Ricciardi’s "win now" plan.