Knocking Down The Door: Bregman, Healy, De Leon, Renfroe, Lively
This is the debut of my weekly “Knocking Down the Door” series here at MLBTR. The purpose is to identify players in Triple-A or Double-A who are doing everything in their power to earn a big league call-up in the very near future.
For the most part, I’ll try to include players who could make a significant impact soon after arriving to the majors, if not right away. So unless it’s a really slow week for potential impact prospects, I will not be telling you about the pending arrival of the next great middle reliever, spot starter or fourth outfielder.
Here are five players to keep an eye on …
Alex Bregman, 3B, Houston Astros (Double-A Corpus Christi): The Houston Astros might be the most disappointing team in baseball. And while the next Carlos Correa probably isn’t waiting in the wings—check back in another decade or so—it’s possible that Alex Bregman can give them a much-needed spark before their season goes completely down the drain.
Correa did make a quick stop in Triple-A before he was called up to the majors last season, but the fading Astros might not be able to wait much longer on the 22-year-old Bregman if they think he can help them out.
The 2nd overall pick in the 2015 draft, Bregman has been a man among boys in Double-A with a 1.007 OPS to go along with 13 homers and more walks (27) than strikeouts (20), which is a good sign that he can handle himself against big league pitching. He’s only played seven games at third base, although a move from shortstop shouldn’t be a difficult transition.
Ryon Healy, 1B, Oakland Athletics (Triple-A Nashville): The A’s have plenty of incentive to continue giving at-bats to Yonder Alonso, who was acquired in the offseason for All-Star candidate Drew Pomeranz, and Billy Butler, who is in year two of a three-year, $30MM deal.
But at some point very soon, they’ll need to move on from at least one of the two—Alonso does have 13 hits in his last eight games to boost his OPS to .642; Butler is coming off of a three-hit game that increased his OPS to .683—and reward first base prospect Ryon Healy for the damage he’s done to Double-A and Triple-A pitching this season.
The 24-year-old Healy has nine hits, including three homers, in his last 22-at-bats to give him an overall slash line of .343/.404/.615 in 60 games between the two levels.
Jose De Leon, SP/RP, Los Angeles Dodgers (Triple-A Oklahoma City): After a breakout season in 2015, Jose De Leon has fallen a bit off the radar due to multiple injuries that have limited him to only three Triple-A starts this season.
While this makes it unlikely that he’ll be able to make an impact in the Dodgers’ rotation anytime soon—he’s made a pair of three-inning starts since returning from the disabled list earlier this month—the 23-year-old right-hander is an intriguing option for a bullpen that does not have a reliable power arm to bridge the gap to closer Kenley Jansen.
In 11 innings, De Leon has allowed three earned runs on four hits with three walks while striking out 21 batters. Sounds like a power arm to me.
Los Angeles Dodgers Depth Chart
Hunter Renfroe, RF/LF, San Diego Padres (Triple-A El Paso): Top outfield prospect Hunter Renfroe is doing his part to earn a big league promotion with a robust .598 slugging percentage after recently belting his 13th and 14th homers of the season. Now he just needs general manager A.J. Preller to do his part and create a spot for him.
Preller has his work cut out for him as he works the phones and tries to find takers for outfielders Matt Kemp and Melvin Upton Jr. and at least some of the remaining salary due on their contracts. Trading free agent-to-be Jon Jay, who is having a nice bounce back season, shouldn’t be difficult. It should only take one trade, though, for the 24-year-old Renfroe to get the call, where the big league coaching staff will hopefully introduce him to something called “plate discipline.”
Renfroe’s Kemp-esque 7-to-45 walk-to-strikeout ratio is a concern. However, in what should be a rebuilding season, it would be great if a key part of the team’s future can get regular at-bats against big league pitching.
Ben Lively, SP, Philadelphia Phillies (Triple-A Lehigh Valley): It’s Zach Eflin who is getting the call tomorrow to replace the injured Vince Velasquez, but it could’ve easily been Ben Lively or Jake Thompson. All three are pitching well. In fact, it was pretty much a coin toss between Lively and Thompson for this highly-coveted spot on the “Knocking Down the Door” list. With the 24-year-old Lively being nearly two years Thompson’s elder, I’m giving him the nod.
Acquired from the Reds for Marlon Byrd two offseasons ago, Lively has really stepped up his game after not making much of an impression in his debut season with the Phillies. After posting a 4.13 ERA in 25 Double-A starts in 2015, the 6’4″ right-hander has put himself on the prospect map with a 1.94 ERA, 2.6 BB/9 and 7.9 K/9 in 13 starts between Triple-A and Double-A. He’s also 10-0, which is probably meaningless, but impressive, nonetheless. Maybe he’s one of those guys who “just knows how to win.”
AL Notes: Astros, Yankees, Choo
There’s a chance Astros shortstop prospect Alex Bregman, the second pick in last year’s draft, will make his major league debut sometime this season. “I wouldn’t rule out him getting [to the Majors] this year, but we have to see how the rest of the season goes for him and if there’s an opening for him at the big leagues,” general manager Jeff Luhnow told Brian McTaggart of MLB.com. If the ex-LSU standout does break in with the Astros this season, it’s unlikely to come at short, where the team already has young star Carlos Correa firmly entrenched. Given Correa’s presence, the Astros had Bregman play third base for the first time Friday with their Double-A team. “I feel like I’ll be very comfortable here really soon — really, really soon,” Bregman stated. Proficiency at the hot corner from the 22-year-old Bregman would bode well for the Astros, whose third basemen have hit a weak .221/.302/.358 this season.
More from two other American League teams:
- The Yankees’ three-headed relief monster of Dellin Betances, Andrew Miller and Aroldis Chapman was in top form Saturday, combining for 3 1/3 innings of eight-strikeout, one-hit ball in a 2-1 win over the White Sox. Chapman’s velocity was particularly awe-inspiring, as the left-hander averaged 100.5 mph on 17 fastballs and topped out at 102.5 mph. Despite the excellence of Betances, Miller and Chapman, Joel Sherman of the New York Post wonders how often the Yankees are actually going to be in position to take advantage of having one of the greatest late-game troikas ever assembled. The victory improved the Bombers to just 15-20 on the season, and their below-average offense once again failed to generate much (albeit against premier lefty Jose Quintana).
- Rangers right fielder Shin-Soo Choo, out since early April with a strained right calf, will begin a Triple-A rehab assignment Sunday and could rejoin the major league club Friday, reports Stefan Stevenson of the Fort Worth Star-Telegram. Thanks to the emergence of stellar rookie Nomar Mazara, whose promotion came as a result of Choo’s injury, there was once expected to be a corner outfield logjam upon Choo’s return. However, the Rangers have since demoted center fielder Delino DeShields and shifted Ian Desmond from left to center. Once Choo comes back, Mazara is a good bet to move from right to left, writes Stevenson.
- Though the Yankees placed right-hander Luis Severino on the 15-day disabled list Friday with a triceps strain, they’re not using the injury as an excuse for his highly disappointing start to the 2016 season. “His arm strength is there, but his stuff is not there,” said GM Brian Cashman (via Chad Jennings of LoHud.com). “He doesn’t have command of his fastball. He doesn’t have command of his secondary pitches. His changeup and slider have been inconsistent. It’s not health related.” Manager Joe Girardi backed up Cashman, saying, “You don’t throw 97, 98 (if you’re) hurt.” Severino has averaged 95.5 mph on his fastball, up a bit from last year’s 95.2, but his 7.46 ERA through 35 innings is nearly five runs worse than the 2.89 mark he put up in his 62 1/3-frame major league debut last season. The 22-year-old’s K/9 has also dropped off markedly, going from 8.09 to 6.94, as he’s yielding more contact while generating fewer swinging strikes.
After 2014 Mess, Astros Pleased With 2015 Draft
The Astros had a strange and disappointing 2014 draft, failing to sign top overall pick Brady Aiken and also failing to sign highly regarded fifth-rounder Jacob Nix when they lost the bonus pool allotment contingent upon Aiken’s signing. But amateur scouting director Mike Elias is pleased with his team’s 2015 draft and feels it makes up for the disappointing results in 2014, Evan Drellich of the Houston Chronicle writes.
“I don’t think I’ll ever forget about that unfortunate part of that draft class,” says Elias. “I think we took a lot of other good players in that draft, but to certainly not sign the first overall pick, have what happened happen, and have the other complications that arose from that occur, it was an unpleasant experience I think for everyone involved.”
Since the Astros didn’t sign Aiken, they got the No. 2 pick in this year’s draft, which they used to sign LSU shortstop Alex Bregman. They also got Florida high school outfielder Kyle Tucker with their regular first-round pick (No. 5 overall), then picked another top talent, Georgia high school outfielder Daz Cameron, with the No. 37 overall pick, a Comp Round A selection they had acquired in the trade that sent Jarred Cosart the Marlins. All three have begun their careers in the Astros organization.
That the Astros had both the No. 2 and No. 5 overall picks gave them an enormous bonus pool of about $17.3MM, far bigger than that of that of the Rockies, who had the second biggest pool at about $14MM, and more than twice as large as the average pool, which came in at around $7.46MM.
The Astros have signed all their picks in the first ten rounds. Bregman signed for $5.9MM, significantly less than his allotment of about $7.4MM, and the Astros saved on later picks as well, picking college seniors in the seventh through tenth rounds as a way of limiting costs. They were thus able to sign Cameron away from a Florida State commitment with a hefty $4MM bonus that ties Tucker for the fourth-largest bonus in the entire draft so far (keeping in mind that top overall pick Dansby Swanson has not yet signed). The Astros also signed their 11th-round pick, California high school lefty Patrick Sandoval, for $900K, of which $800K counted against their pool.
“[T]o come away with three top 10 players, essentially, out of two high picks and a (compensation round pick at No. 37), it’s huge,” Elias says. “And it is, I think, the optimal outcome for the compensation that we received for not signing Brady last year. … [O]n paper, I do feel that we made the most of a scenario we were presented with for 2015.”
Astros Agree To Terms With Alex Bregman
2:58pm: Bregman’s bonus is expected to be $6MM, reports Drellich (on Twitter). That would add an approximate $1.42MM to the $1.069MM they’ve already saved, giving the team about $2.3MM over slot to offer Cameron. Of course, as noted below, the team’s second- and third-round picks remain unsigned, so there are still some yet-undetermined factors in calculating Cameron’s maximum bonus.
12:35pm: Bregman tells MLB.com’s Chandler Rome that he’s “pretty sure” he’ll be introduced at Minute Maid Park tomorrow (Twitter link).
12:27pm: The Astros are in agreement with No. 2 overall pick Alex Bregman, reports Mark Berman of MyFOXHouston.com (All Twitter links). Bregman has arrived in Houston to sign his contract with the Astros, according to Berman. A shortstop out of Louisiana State University, Bregman himself confirmed that the deal is in place and voiced his excitement over beginning his pro career when talking to Berman. “I was so excited. I can’t wait to get wherever I’m going,” said Bregman.
Earlier this week, the Houston Chronicle’s Evan Drellich reported that the ‘Stros were closing in on agreements with Bregman and No. 37 overall selection Daz Cameron. GM Jeff Luhnow told Drellich he hoped to have a couple of signings to announce during the upcoming homestand, which starts tomorrow.
Bregman was universally considered among the top four prospects in this year’s draft class. He rated as the No. 4 prospect in the draft in the estimation of Baseball America, Keith Law of ESPN.com and Jonathan Mayo/Jim Callis of MLB.com. Fangraphs’ Kiley McDaniel ranked Bregman third.
Law calls Bregman the “best pure hitter in the class,” sharing the opinion of many scouts that Bregman will eventually end up at second base. That’s far from a guarantee, however, as McDaniel notes that he feels Bregman can stick at short, and both the MLB.com and BA scouting reports add that he has a chance to be an average defender there. BA notes that “average” range isn’t good enough for some clubs, but Bregman projects as a plus defender at second if he moves to the other side of the bag. BA calls Bregman “one of the safest picks in this year’s draft,” noting that he has an exceptionally long track record of success, dating back to his high school days, when he led the USA 16U and 18U teams to gold medals in 2010 and 2011.
If Bregman’s bonus comes in below the slot value of $7,420,100, the Astros could use those savings and the roughly $189K they saved on No. 5 overall selection Kyle Tucker in order to offer Cameron a significantly above-slot bonus. A look at MLB.com’s draft bonus tracker also shows that the Astros have saved $273K on fourth-rounder Anthony Hermelyn, $66.5K on fifth-rounder Trent Thornton, $43K on sixth-rounder Nestor Muriel, $120K on seventh-rounder Michael Freeman, $76K on eighth-rounder Garrett Stubbs, $154K on ninth-rounder Zac Person and $148K on 10th-rounder Scott Weathersby. All told that’s a savings of about $1.069MM in addition to any savings from Bregman’s bonus and their remaining unsigned second- and third-round selections. Cameron’s slot value is $1.6686MM, so the Astros seem well-positioned to offer substantially more in order to convince him to sign rather than attend Florida State.
Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.