Rosenthal’s Latest: Dunn, Wheeler, Izzy
Ken Rosenthal posted a new column last night, and has updated it very recently. I’ve already spoken about the Teixeira stuff, but there’s other good material in there too.
- Some of the wilder speculation out there has been that the Twins might trade Torii Hunter or Johan Santana if they decide they’re out of it. Various Baseball Prospectus reports put the Twins’ playoff chances between 5-10%. Rosenthal debunks the idea that Minnesota would shop Hunter without first making him an offer, and keeping Santana for at least 2008 makes sense. Plus, Santana has a no-trade clause.
- Rosenthal does have some Twins for us who might be traded: Luis Castillo and Carlos Silva. Castillo has already been connected to the Mets in rumors, though Silva is a new one. One could definitely envision Silva’s style working in the National League (I know, I say that a lot). There was a recent Silva to Atlanta rumor, though Silva’s agent seems to have debunked it.
- Rosenthal says Dontrelle Willis is not available. Perhaps he and Tim Brown will engage in fisticuffs over this disagreement.
- The Diamondbacks have kicked the tires on Adam Dunn. He might make sense as a rental – the D’Backs playoff changes sit between 16-27%, worth fighting for. No doubt they’ve got a stable of young players to offer.
- Rosenthal says the Astros have yet to receive interest on the Lidge/Wheeler/Qualls troika, while Jayson Stark said yesterday that the Astros hadn’t opened shop on them. Thunderdome match #2, Rosenthal vs. Stark. Assuming Ken survives Tim Brown. Anyway, word is that the Rockies have their eye on Wheeler.
- Parties interested in Zack Greinke: Diamondbacks, Dodgers, Braves, and Cubs. This gels with Dan Graziano’s findings. Of course, trading a player like Greinke requires an equally talented youngster in return.
- The Royals may not be able to do better than Cleveland’s Ben Francisco as a bounty for Octavio Dotel. More on him in a separate post.
- Trades of Joe Blanton and Huston Street are "highly unlikely." So you’re saying there’s a chance?
- The chances of the Cardinals trading Jason Isringhausen are described as "remote." The Cards would have a hard time replacing him next year; he’s got a reasonable $8MM option. He also has no-trade protection, so he’d probably want a better extension if he was to accept a trade.
State Of The Astros
Astros GM Tim Purpura has finally admitted that the Astros should not be making player acquisitions with this year in mind. A huge veteran firesale makes perfect sense right now.
As far as the huge blockbuster names – Carlos Lee, Lance Berkman, and Roy Oswalt – Purpura specifically says they will not be traded. I have avoided wasting ink on the Oswalt rumors that have bounced around over the past few weeks, because I just didn’t believe them. Oswalt’s 2008-11 total salary – $58MM – is about the same as Mark Buehrle‘s and an equal-sized bargain.
Oswalt mentioned his willingness to waive his no-trade clause if a deal would help the Astros, which I imagine would require the $16MM option for 2012 to be exercised. Regardless, trading Oswalt would be silly. A pitcher of his stature at a reasonable contract is a rarity.
Fortunately for a website that specializes in trade rumors, Purpura still has plenty of parts to sell off. I outlined all the trade candidates in this post.
Brad Lidge seems to be healthy now, and spending all of next week in the Majors closing games for the Astros would go a long way toward his trade value. But maybe a nice run would convince Purpura to keep him. We’ve heard conflicting messages on whether the Astros are willing to trade Lidge. Today, Richard Justice mentions the Indians, Red Sox, and Tigers as "hot for" Lidge.
Right behind Lidge in trade value is Jason Jennings. Jennings, who typically acts as a bullpen-saver, is on the road to re-establishing his health after missing most of April and May with elbow problems. He had a decent June, making six starts and going seven innings in three of them. Since the injury risk and impending free agency may keep his price down, Jennings might be the best realistic trade target among starters.
Rosenthal’s Latest: Andruw, Lidge, Gwynn Jr.
Ken Rosenthal has a new Full Count video up at FOXSports for your viewing pleasure.
- Rosenthal believes that despite Andruw Jones‘s lousy May and June, he’ll still cash in this winter as the best available center fielder. He’ll still provide more offense than Torii Hunter in the long run.
- The Nationals are still asking for the moon in trade talks. If Jim Bowden does start acting reasonable, Dmitri Young, Chad Cordero, Jon Rauch, and Ryan Church could be dealt. Word via Bill Ladson of MLB.com is that only the Braves have inquired on Young.
- Brad Lidge is expected to remain an Astro. The main reason: Drayton McLane still doesn’t think his team is out of it. Most simulations a 2% chance or less of reaching the playoffs. If the Astros finally do acknowledge reality, they’d prefer to trade relievers other than Lidge (ie, Dan Wheeler or Chad Qualls).
- The Rangers and Brewers were close to a trade: Akinori Otsuka to the Brewers for Tony Gwynn Jr. Rosenthal seemed to dislike it, but I think it made sense for the Crew. Regardless, Bill Hall‘s injury thwarted the deal as Gwynn will be needed to man center.
- The new plan for the Brewers is to call up 29 year-old Grant Balfour, who’s dominated in the minors. He endured elbow and shoulder woes before undergoing Tommy John surgery in May of ’05. In the midst of his TJ recovery, Balfour developed the need for shoulder surgery to repair a torn rotator cuff and labrum. This guy would be pumping gas if he’d been born a few decades earlier. After the surgeries, the Twins cut Balfour and the Reds snagged him. Balfour rehabbed with the Reds but never made it to the bigs; the Brewers claimed him off waivers in October of ’06. He’s all the way back; Johnny Estrada was singing his praises back in February.
Latest From Gammons
The man himself, Peter Gammons, had a blog posting on Saturday that I neglected to mention here.
- Gammons mentions some suitors for Mark Buehrle: the Mets, Cardinals, and Mariners. He draws the Jermaine Dye/Padres connection we have seen in the past.
- Gammons believes the Astros will move one of Brad Lidge, Dan Wheeler, or Chad Qualls. However, that was written before Lidge hit the DL for a strained oblique. Houston would also love to move Morgan Ensberg, but that’s nothing new.
- The Dodgers are looking for a corner infield slugger, but aren’t interested in Troy Glaus or Scott Rolen. Adam Dunn isn’t in the Dodgers’ plans, either. Dunn’s defensive limitations really seem to be hindering a deal. If they are going to give up multiple young future stars, it’s going to take Mark Teixeira. In other words, they’d go all-in.
- Bill Stoneman is "cautiously looking for a bat." Cautious is the name of the game with Stoneman. It’s a seller’s market for power hitters. Imagine what the Marlins could get for Miguel Cabrera.
Mets Inquire On Buehrle, Lidge
Dan Graziano of the Newark Star-Ledger writes that the Mets have inquired as to the availability of starter Mark Buehrle as well as reliever Brad Lidge.
According to Graziano, a Buehrle acquisition would allow the Mets to move Jorge Sosa to the bullpen, helping two areas at once. Apparently Omar Minaya has been a big Buehrle fan for a while. Something involving Lastings Milledge would make a ton of sense. Would a Mike Pelfrey or Philip Humber be required as well?
Kenny Williams and Omar Minaya have matched up a couple times before, when Minaya was GM of the Expos. The Sox plucked Bartolo Colon and Carl Everett from the Expos in separate deals, sending away Rocky Biddle, Orlando Hernandez, Jon Rauch, and Gary Majewski. With over a month to spare, it sounds like Williams will sit back and see what offers come to him. On the other hand, the acquiring team can’t afford to wait.
Graziano says the Mets believe Lidge would be very comfortable working behind Billy Wagner, his former mentor. The availability of Lidge is still in question however.
Rosenthal’s Latest
The authority on all trade rumors, Ken Rosenthal has spoken. Let’s review.
- As we have heard before, the Dodgers like Adam Dunn. We’ve also discussed the fact that there’s not a clear place to put him. Whether you go with first base or left field, a veteran must move. The Padres like Dunn as well but talks have yet to occur. The Angels may have liked him in the past but they don’t seem likely at this point. And the Twins? They just won’t break the bank for him unfortunately.
- With Michael Barrett having issues with 40% of the Cubs’ rotation, the Cubs could look to trade him. Even though he’s a top offensive catcher, his impending free agency might prevent any strong return. Plus, the Cubs would have to go with a Henry Blanco/Koyie Hill tandem. A more likely scenario is that the Cubs will let Barrett walk after the season.
- Finally some clarity on Eric Gagne‘s limited no-trade protection. Rosenthal reveals that he can veto trades to 12 teams. The Phillies and Indians are again mentioned as suitors. Rosenthal thinks Mark Teixeira could generate a lot of talk but no action at the trading deadline. Kind of like Alfonso Soriano or A.J. Burnett before him.
- The asking price for Brad Lidge, supposedly: a premium young catcher and promising young pitcher. Lidge will probably earn $8MM next year before hitting free agency. The Astros should be happy with a young catcher or a young pitcher, not both. I’d mention Salty here but I think he is worth much more than Lidge. Rosenthal says the Astros could move another bullpen arm like Wheeler or Qualls to get the bat they need.
- Could the Devil Rays simply retain Al Reyes and Carlos Pena? Both players could be valuable contributors to the 2008 club. I like the idea of keeping Reyes around for next year, but I think Pena has peaked.
- Noah Lowry would get the attention of the Braves or Cardinals, but the Giants are unlikely to move him.
- The Phils are likely to pass on Tomo Ohka despite their need for pitching.
Latest On Lidge
Today brings four new articles mentioning ousted Houston closer Brad Lidge. MLBTradeRumors reads them so you don’t have to.
Ken Davidoff of Newsday simply drops one sentence on the topic, writing that Lidge is not available for the moment. Well, that’s a start.
Dan Graziano of the Newark Star-Ledger names Lidge one of his "Five Closers Who Had A Tough Week." I really think Ugueth Urbina belongs at #6. Graziano mentions that the Devil Rays have been one of the most aggressive teams calling on Tim Purpura for Lidge, but that the Astros have shown no eagerness to trade him.
Speaking of those Devil Rays, Marc Topkin of the St. Petersburg Times is well-connected to the club as the beat writer. He says Lidge trade chatter is ongoing, but that if the Astros do decide to trade him they might avoid the Rays. Why’s that? Former Astros pitching coach Jim Hickey might be able to fix him, and the Astros don’t want to be shown up in a trade. In essence, they want Lidge to continue to fail if they trade him.
Side note: I couldn’t figure out a good destination for Jorge Cantu, ultimately leaning toward the Mets. But Topkin says the Blue Jays and Twins have come up in rumors in the media. I didn’t catch those articles, but maybe he is referring to reporter chatter.
Scott Lauber of the Wilmington News Journal again connects the Phillies to Lidge. I’m starting to think he’s got more than speculation there. Lauber feels that Lidge needs a change of scenery, but obviously the Astros are reluctant to sell low.
Ringolsby On Lidge, Otsuka, And More
Esteemed Denver Post writer Tracy Ringolsby drops a few trade rumors on us in this morning’s column.
- Ringolsby writes that the Padres have some rainy-day money saved up to be used specifically for one of three players, if they are available and the team is contending. The players are future free agents Ichiro Suzuki, Andruw Jones, and Torii Hunter. I’m not sure how Mike Cameron would feel about that, and whether it would affect his contract negotiations. Hopefully he wouldn’t mind moving to a corner.
- Should Eric Gagne prove himself healthy and reliable (a long shot), the Red Sox, Indians, and Marlins have interest in acquiring Akinori Otsuka. In my opinion the Phillies might want in on that too. The Mets and Diamondbacks have expressed interest in the past. I’m a bit skeptical that the Marlins would take on another $3MM reliever after the Jorge Julio debacle.
- The same three teams Ringolsby mentioned for Otsuka would have interest in Brad Lidge if available. Also, some major connections between Lidge and the Rockies are described. And Buster Olney mentions the Blue Jays as another possibility in his blog today.
- Ringolsby quotes Joe Nathan as saying his agents have had positive initial talks with the Twins. Yesterday, Jon Heyman of SI.com had a source indicating that talks with Nathan had slowed.
Wagner on Lidge
Jon Heyman has been talking to Mets’ closer Billy Wagner, who is apparently close friends with the down-and-out former Astros’ closer Brad Lidge. Who knew that Wagner was an expert insider in major league baseball– he refutes the Astros’ claim that they are not planning on moving the shell-shocked reliver.
According to Wagner, Philadelphia wouldn’t be a good fit, because, well, it wasn’t a good fit for him. From Heyman’s article: "He needs to be in a place where he can [exhale],” Wagner said. "Houston’s so laid back. Maybe I’m biased against [Philadelphia] … [But] all it takes is one bad game, and fans would kill him." Obviously the Phillies are part of the discussion because they need to improve their bullpen in order to compete in the NL East, but Heyman also mentions the Mets and Devil Rays. Of the Mets, Wagner says: "He’d be a good fit here. In this clubhouse, it isn’t ‘Who hit the home run?’ or "Who had the hit?’ It’s "Did we win?”’ Yea, when I think of a place to exhale, I think Shea Stadium, with its kind, gentle, forgiving Mets fans. Right.
Lidge is on a one-year, $5.35M contract, so despite all the Astros "connections" to the D-Rays, I don’t see it happening. Marc Topkin of the St. Petersburg Times named some candidates yesterday nonetheless. In my opinion, any of those guys are too much to give up, especially for a team with no prayer of making the playoffs. Why are they in the market for a closer?
With so many teams in need of relief pitching, it is likely that Houston will be able to dump all of Lidge’s salary and still get some good value in return. But who, what, and when? It’s only speculation for now.
John Peterson is a Mets fan and writes for the blog Blastings Thrilledge.
Devil Rays And Brad Lidge?
Combining a couple of reports this morning, it appears that the Devil Rays may have some interest in acquiring ousted Houston closer Brad Lidge.
Jose de Jesus Ortiz of the Houston Chronicle has a friend covering an AL East team reporting that his team is talking to Tim Purpura about Lidge. Naturally one might think the Red Sox would be interested in Lidge for a setup role, as they’ve talked to the Astros about him in the past.
However, Jose’s friend may be Marc Topkin of the St. Petersburg Times, who covers the Devil Rays. Topkin reports that the Rays would make a good match with possible trading chips like Rocco Baldelli, Jason Hammel, Andy Sonnanstine, J.P. Howell, and Shawn Riggans. Topkin thinks the presence of former Astros GM Gerry Hunsicker and the previous Aubrey Huff deal could inhibit a Lidge deal now. I imagine the Astros would pounce on a Baldelli for Lidge trade, but I don’t see that happening. The Astros are fairly well set in the outfield.
Drays Bay throws out Joel Guzman as a possibility, and notes that current Rays pitching coach Jim Hickey previously worked for the Astros. Would the Rays really want to take on Lidge’s $5.35MM and give up a solid player for him? This club is not expected to win this year, though Lidge will not become a free agent until after the 2008 season.
The Phillies certainly need some bullpen help, though I’m not sure that Lidge would change things. Scott Lauber of the Wilmington News Journal suggests the possibility, but only as speculation.
It should be noted that de Jesus Ortiz spoke to Purpura, and the GM’s comments do not seem to indicate a trade anytime soon.