Baseball Blogs Weigh In: 2008 Debuts For Top Prospects
Baseball America recently unveiled their lists of the Top 10 prospects in each organization. Many of these top prospects will make their major league debut in 2008 and a number of moves made this off-season have a direct impact on exactly when that will happen. With one week to go before pitchers and catchers report, and still no official announcement of an Erik Bedard trade, let’s take a look at these speculations from the blogosphere.
- Red Reporter would not be surprised to see Jay Bruce start the year in Triple A, as they feel his strikeout totals suggest he may struggle early on the big leagues. However, the recent trade of Josh Hamilton to the Rangers suggest the Reds are at least entertaining the idea of starting Bruce in the big leagues despite beginning 2007 in Single-A.
- Sox & Dawgs projects that the last spot in the rotation will come down to Jon Lester or top prospect Clay Buchholz. The recent news of a shoulder injury for Curt Schilling makes it more likely for Buchholz to be on the opening day roster.
- Rays of Light believes that Evan Longoria is the top candidate for Rookie of the Year in the AL, if he starts the year on the Major League roster. It is believed that the Rays will make a decision prior to Spring Training, as it should not be impacted by the recent legal troubles of Willy Aybar or the signing of Eric Hinske.
- Dodger Thoughts feel that Clayton Kershaw will be in the Dodgers rotation by midseason. It is unclear if this decision will be impacted by a potential acquisition of Joe Blanton from the A’s.
- Redbird Ramblings does not see Colby Rasmus making the Cardinals roster out of Spring Training without any experience in Triple A. However, they project that Rasmus will be manning center field for St. Louis and leading off at some point this season. The off-season trade of Jim Edmonds opened a spot for Rasmus.
Erik Bedard Rumors
The Baltimore Sun’s Jeff Zrebiec has the latest regarding ace Erik Bedard. Some rank Bedard as the best available starter, all-in-all – he’s under team control for longer than Johan Santana, doesn’t have no-trade rights, and has better stuff than Dan Haren.
- The Orioles and Bedard’s agent never actually exchanged salary figures, and now contract extension talks have come to a stop. Andy MacPhail isn’t concerned but no one seems to expect the O’s to pony up the money needed to retain their ace beyond 2009. Johan Santana should set the bar; Bedard may become a $20MM pitcher.
- Zrebiec lists the Yankees, Mets, Mariners, Angels, and Dodgers as teams that have inquired on Bedard. It’s surprising to see the Red Sox omitted from that list.
- The Mets made an offer: Carlos Gomez, Aaron Heilman, and perhaps Phil Humber. That’s an OK starting point but the O’s could do better.
- The Dodgers have also had talks with the O’s, with Matt Kemp, Jonathan Broxton, and Clayton Kershaw coming up. That’s certainly worth mulling over.
Orioles, Dodgers Talking Bedard, Kemp
Earlier this month, we learned that the Orioles will listen to offers for Erik Bedard. Sounds kinda crazy, shopping a potential Cy Young candidate with two years remaining until free agency. But if the Orioles can pick up a couple of younger but still MLB-ready players, so be it. The first connection comes from the Dodgers, who are offering a package centered around — guess who — Matt Kemp.
Kemp himself won’t get this deal done. Tim Brown of Yahoo! Sports lists the usual suspects from the Dodgers: Andy LaRoche (because 93 at-bats is a plenty big sample), Jonathan Meloan, James Loney, Clayton Kershaw, Delwyn Young, Andre Ethier, and Tony Abreu.
Of course, Kemp would play a large part in a potential Miguel Cabrera trade, so the Dodgers must choose wisely. They certainly have the players it would take to land either player.
Brown notes that the Dodgers are already looking to upgrade at center field. We all know what that means: Hunter, Rowand, and Jones.
Joe Pawlikowski is co-author of River Ave. Blues.
Orioles To Attempt To Extend Bedard
It looks like Erik Bedard is Andy MacPhail’s top priority right now. He’s already gauged the trade interest for his ace, and is now exploring the idea of a contract extension.
Jeff Zrebiec says the Mets, Yankees, Angels, and Dodgers expressed interest in the southpaw starter. Interesting to see the Halos in the mix. The Dodgers are pushing the hardest for him. Two years of Bedard is expected to cost a team three MLB-ready players. The names mentioned for the Dodgers are Jonathan Broxton, Matt Kemp, and Clayton Kershaw. While Kershaw’s not MLB-ready, I doubt the Orioles would mind. Zrebiec says the problem with the Dodgers is that Kemp and Kershaw would be part of a Miguel Cabrera package.
What would a contract extension cost? I’m thinking it would require something like four years, $65MM to cover the two team-controlled years and two years of free agency.
Zrebiec also mentions that the Mets inquired on Ramon Hernandez, but found the price of a high-end prospect prohibitive.
Angels and Dodgers Battling For Miguel Cabrera
UPDATE, 11-15-07: MLB.com’s Joe Frisaro says the Angels are in the lead now, and trade talk for Cabrera is picking up with A-Rod on the verge of signing. Frisaro says a deal could be done by Thanksgiving, in contrast to Joe Capozzi’s suggestion that this would happen at the Winter Meetings. The L.A. Times explained several Dodgers/Angels scenarios on Wednesday; that’s also worth a read.
FROM 11-13-07:
Joe Capozzi of the Palm Beach Post says the Dodgers and Angels are leading the pack in the Miguel Cabrera derby. Four other clubs are said to be in the mix. The Marlins will continue to field offers and hope to trade Cabrera at the Winter Meetings in a few weeks.
Both the Dodgers and Angels are also in the mix for Alex Rodriguez. Scott Boras must love Cabrera messing up his market. A friend of Tommy Lasorda’s told me today that Lasorda puts the Dodgers’ chances of signing A-Rod around 25%.
From the Angels, the Marlins want Howie Kendrick, Nick Adenhart, another pitcher, and an outfielder. Now that’s a tall order! Ervin Santana or Joe Saunders could be in the mix. Maybe the Marlins like Terry Evans, Nathan Haynes, or Reggie Willits as well.
The Dodgers are being asked to pony up four of Chad Billingsley, Clayton Kershaw, Andy LaRoche, James Loney, and Matt Kemp. Capozzi suggests the Dodgers would probably only include one of the pitchers. Even so, a Kershaw/LaRoche/Loney/Kemp package is insane for one player. That has to be well over $100MM of value – a bit less than 20 team-controlled seasons. Three of the five would still make for a sweet bounty. The team acquiring Cabrera would probably be compelled to lock him in past 2009.
An educated guess at the other four teams in the mix for Cabrera: White Sox, Red Sox, Yankees, and Giants. I’ll guess that the Indians have bowed out.
Sunday Morning Santana
Nick Cafardo of the Boston Globe discusses the names being thrown around for Johan Santana. As well as the Kemp/Kershaw for Santana, Cafardo quotes an AL Executive:
One AL executive theorized, "There are a few teams who could match up with the Twins. Would the Yankees deal Melky Cabrera and an Ian Kennedy for Santana? How about Boston? Would they send a Clay Buchholz and a Jacoby Ellsbury for him? The Mets? There are few teams who could handle the paycheck you’d have to give Santana and also be able to part with key prospects."
If that logic is correct, it narrows the list of suitors considerably.
MLBTR readers made the astute point in the Kemp/Kershaw comments that if a team is going to give up two Major League-ready prospects, the deal would be contingent on a re-signing of Santana. A one year rental is most likely not going to appeal to any GM handing over otherwise untouchable commodities such as a Buchholz/Ellsbury or a Kennedy/Cabrera or a Kemp/Kershaw.
Which teams, therefore, can afford the likes of baseball’s best starting pitcher?
Here’s an intriguing twist. As most already know, it’s safe to assume Santana will not finish in the top 3 in Cy Young voting this year and therefore will not be gaining his no-trade clause for 2008. However, he still gets to choose up to 12 teams to which he can’t be traded. If for some reason he didn’t want to leave the Twins next season, could he strategically choose every team capable of dealing for him?
Despite not having a no-trade clause, it’s safe to note Santana will have considerable say in any deal.
Posted by: Nat Boyle
Kemp/Kershaw for Santana
Well it’s what I call an "official possibility" now. In his ESPN.com chat yesterday afternoon, Jonah Keri of Page 2 confirmed the Johan Santana for Matt Kemp and Clayton Kershaw rumor that’s been generating a lot of buzz here at MLBTR. Let’s discuss, shall we?
Kemp and Kershaw both have 6 years before they reach free agency. Santana has 1. There’s the obvious red flag right there, Dodgers fans. But if Los Angeles GM Ned Colletti wants to win now, and he usually does, Santana could be the golden ticket. I shudder to think of how dominant Santana could be not only in the NL but also in Dodgers Stadium.
If you’re the Twins, and you know you can’t afford Santana, I think this is a no-brainer. Especially if (big if) you think you have Francisco Liriano returning to form.
The question remains: Is an ace like Johan what the Dodgers need to win? I’m not so sure. They’re rotation has been solidified by the emergence of Chad Billingsley. With a scrapheap lineup of Gonzo, Nomar, and Pierre, Matt Kemp could become their best hitter as early as… tonight.
Posted By: Nat Boyle
Clayton Kershaw Pulled After One Inning
Dodgers fans following phenom southpaw Clayton Kershaw‘s start tonight may have been disappointed. The 19 year-old was pulled after just one inning. Conspiracy theorists have already established that Kershaw must be involved in a trade.
Usually I’m quick to contribute to any conspiracy, but I decided to take a few minutes to listen to the Great Lakes Loons broadcast instead. Turns out that the plan all along was to have Kershaw pitch just one inning – this plan was outlined before the game started. Apparently the Dodgers sent down this directive to keep Kershaw’s innings count down this year. After all, this is Kershaw’s first full pro season.
You could call BS on the Dodgers and insist Kershaw is headed to Oakland in a Joe Blanton deal. After all, there had to be some kind of party line for the announcer to use to explain the one-inning stint. But if he really had been traded, why let him pitch at all? Why not just scratch him and say he has the flu?
Kershaw might be the best pitching prospect in all of baseball right now. He’s definitely the top lefthander. Most likely, the Dodgers are just being careful with him.
Additionally, I’m still trying to track down why Mets prospect Fernando Martinez was pulled from tonight’s game after one at-bat. But I do know he recently came off the DL for a right hand contusion, so taking it easy with him is entirely reasonable.
One more for you: apparently Philip Humber was supposed to start tonight for the Zephyrs after being scratched Friday for food poisoning. Adam Bostick started instead, but I’m not sure why.
Latest Mark Teixeira Trade Rumors
Now we’re really getting down to the wire; will Jon Daniels take this thing all the way to tomorrow’s deadline, knowing that some teams will move on if he doesn’t commit soon?
- Evan Grant of the Dallas Morning News writes of serious talks with the Angels, Dodgers, and Braves. Grant was the one who still saw the Dodgers involved yesterday, and he’s held fast to that. He believes Arizona’s late interest may kick the Dodger talks back into high gear. Inclusion of Clayton Kershaw would get it done pretty quickly, it seems. In that scenario a reliever would go to L.A. as well.
- Tony Jackson of the Los Angeles Daily News has a source saying an Internet report that the Dodgers offered James Loney, Andre Ethier, and Jonathan Meloan to the Rangers for Teixeira and Joaquin Benoit is false. I’m not sure what Internet report Jackson is referring to; Jayson Stark mentioned Meloan recently but said nothing about an offer.
- David O’Brien of the Atlanta Journal Constitution adds that the shortstop going to Texas could be Brent Lillibridge instead of Elvis Andrus. John Schuerholz is still engaged in talks. Neither O’Brien or Grant mentions Matt Harrison‘s injury. Harrison is a top pitching prospect who was supposed to be included in the deal. O’Brien has the Braves, Angels, and Diamondbacks as the teams in the mix for Teixeira. In a separate article O’Brien adds that the Braves might be able to get southpaw Ron Mahay added to the deal.
- Yahoo’s Jeff Passan says righty Tommy Hanson could replace Harrison in the deal. Hanson is 6-foot-6 but only throws in the 88-92 range. He’s more known for his excellent command and is currently working on his secondary pitches in High A ball.
Mailbag: Nomar To Third Base
Feel free to hit up the MLBTR mailbag at mlbtraderumors@gmail.com.
Today, Peter C. writes:
Grady Little has finally snapped and decided to put Nomar at third and James Loney at first base. What do you think the overall repercussions of this move will be?
- Nomar’s injury likelihood increases drastically.
- The switch does not spark Nomar’s bat.
- With the offensive decline, an $8.5MM salary for 2008, and a lengthy injury history, Nomar is untradeable except in a salary-for-salary type swap. How about some kind of convoluted trade for Pat Burrell?
- Should he stay, Nomar’s presence will be an inconvenience, but he won’t eat up too much playing time because of injuries.
- Loney fails to provide the power the Dodgers are looking for over the next several weeks. He may eventually become Mark Grace, but could disappoint in the short term.
- Ned Colletti gives up on Loney and uses him in a deadline deal for Mark Teixeira. I can’t decide who else would go to Texas in this imagined deal. Jonathan Meloan? He’s a reliever, though an impressive one. I can’t see even Colletti trading big-time pitching prospects like Clayton Kershaw or Chad Billingsley.
- Kind of funny that as I was just finishing up this post, a reader passed along this rumor from Evan Grant. Grant’s trade proposals don’t deviate too far from my Loney/Meloan package. He actually suggests the Rangers package Eric Gagne with Teixeira in an attempt to pry away Kershaw.