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Cliff Lee

Olney’s Latest: Lee, Mets, Ibanez, Fukudome, DeJesus

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In today's blog post at ESPN (Insider req'd), Buster Olney names the winners and losers in yesterday's Cliff Lee deal. Beyond the obvious, he says the Red Sox and Rays win because Lee stays away from the team they're chasing in the AL East while the Athletics and Angels lose because he's going to the team they're chasing in the AL West. Olney also dubs the Phillies losers because yesterday's trade again showed that they didn't receive as much as they could have for Lee when they traded him last winter.

Here are the rest of Buster's rumors…

  • People within the Mets' front office are working under the assumption that they will not be able to expand payroll. Earlier this week we heard that the team liked the idea of acquiring Ted Lilly and taking on the now $5.55MM left on his deal as a way to move fewer prospects.
  • The Phillies would prefer to move Raul Ibanez and the $17MM left on his deal to make room for top prospect Domonic Brown, but I can't imagine anyone will bite. Impending free agent Jayson Werth might go instead.
  • Kosuke Fukudome's stock is falling, but the Cubs are still keeping the eye on the market for his services.
  • The Royals are telling teams that they are going to hang on to David DeJesus until the trade deadline before deciding whether or not to move the outfielder.

What’s Next For The Mariners?

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The Mariners cashed in their biggest chip yesterday, dealing Cliff Lee to the Rangers for Justin Smoak and three prospects. With the team currently 34-52 and 16 games back in the division, it's reasonable to expect GM Jack Zduriencik to continue making moves geared more towards contending in 2011 than righting the ship in 2010.

Geoff Baker of The Seattle Times points out that with Smoak set to man first on an every day basis, the Mariners now have three players (Milton Bradley, Russell Branyan, and Michael Saunders) for two roster spots (left field, designated hitter). Bradley's sore knee buys them some time, and Saunders could also be optioned to Triple-A, but flipping Branyan to a contender looking for some pop is very possible.

Saunders was almost sent to Philadelphia in last winter's Lee deal before the Phillies' requested Tyson Gillies instead, and Baker says the Zduriencik regime "hasn't exactly been in love" with holdover prospects from the Bill Bavasi era. Saunders could again find himself on the chopping block.

Backup first baseman Casey Kotchman could go at any time, though it's tough to believe there will be much trade interest in his .208/.292/.344 batting line, regardless of how good his defense is. The same could be said of the currently injured Mike Sweeney, though he was hitting a tolerable .263/.327/.475 before his back flared up.

Jose Lopez is very much available, but Baker doesn't think either Brandon League or David Aardsma will be dealt. Both are under team control for the next two seasons, so the Mariners aren't feeling pressure to move them immediately.

The Lee trade basically represented the white flag, but the Mariners don't have much left to trade away beyond Lopez, some relievers, and possibly Branyan. More than anything, they need to start getting better production out of Chone Figgins (.235/.334/.277) and Bradley (.211/.295/.368) while Jason Vargas (3.09 ERA) and Doug Fister (also a 3.09 ERA) continue to establish themselves as viable starters behind Felix Hernandez.

Yankees Still Seen As Favorites To Sign Lee For 2011

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The city of New York has missed out on both LeBron James and Cliff Lee over the last two days.  In the latter star's case, however, another chance to acquire Lee will likely be coming soon, and many seem to think it's already a fait accompli.

As Andrew Marchand of ESPNNewYork.com puts it, "there is still a feeling around baseball that it is a matter of when, not if, Cliff Lee will become a Yankee."  Lee is a free agent at the end of the season and given the uncertainly surrounding the Rangers' ownership situation, it's unknown exactly what the club's payroll or overall financial status will be come winter.  Bob Nightengale of USA Today reports (via Twitter) that the Rangers feel they can sign Lee to a long-term deal should the sale of the team be settled, but even with this stability, it means that the Rangers will still need to face the Yankees in a bidding war — a daunting task for any club when pursuing a player that New York truly seems to want.

Even by losing out on Lee now, the Yankees can still win in the long run.  The Bronx Bombers can keep top prospect Jesus Montero and promising infielder David Adams (who would've gone to Seattle in a Lee deal) and still possibly get Lee for nothing but money in the offseason.  Also, New York's rotation will have more room for Lee in the winter since Javier Vazquez is probably unlikely to be re-signed and Andy Pettitte may retire.

There is one possible short-term downside for the Yankees, however, best summarized in a tweet by Mark Feinsand of the New York Daily News: "..this worked out quite well for the Yankees. Unless they have to play Texas in the playoffs, of course."

Will The Yankees Still Look For Starting Pitching?

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It's not often that the Yankees miss out on a player, but after their seemingly all-but-finalized negotiations for Cliff Lee fell through earlier today, Lee is now property of the Texas Rangers.  While it's been reported that the Yankees have some hard feelings towards the Mariners over how the M's pulled out of their proposed deal, ESPN's Buster Olney tweets that some members of the Yankee front office have put Lee behind them.

The question is, will the Bronx Bombers move on to any other starting pitchers that are on the trade market?  Dan Haren, Ted Lilly and Roy Oswalt are among the big-name hurlers who could be wearing different uniforms by July 31, but just because New York didn't acquire Lee doesn't mean that the Yankees are still in the hunt for rotation help.

There is, after all, Javier Vazquez.  After a disastrous start to his second go-around with the Yankees, Vazquez seems to have gotten on track; he posted a 3.23 ERA in six June starts and held opponents to a .189 batting average over the month.  Had the Yankees picked up Lee, Vazquez either might have been traded, become the most over-qualified long reliever in baseball, or possibly stayed in the rotation had New York made a less-obvious move (like keeping Phil Hughes' innings under control by having Hughes replace the struggling Joba Chamberlain as Mariano Rivera's set-up man).

As ESPN's Jayson Stark observes, Lee has dominated the Yankees in recent years, most notably beating them twice in last year's World Series.  If anything, it seems like New York's pursuit of Lee was more about keeping the left-hander away from other teams than it was about adding a needed piece.  It's one thing to add a proven ace with an expiring contract like Lee, but quite another to add a starter with an expensive long-term deal (like Oswalt or Haren) or a pitcher like Lilly who isn't a clear enough upgrade over Vazquez to justify trading the prospects that the Cubs would want in return.

Rangers Acquire Cliff Lee For Smoak, Prospects

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Cliff Lee is joining his fourth team in 12 months and the Rangers are hoping he can lead them to the playoffs for the first time in 11 years. The Rangers pried Lee away from the Mariners and multiple suitors today in a blockbuster deal that makes the 50-35 Rangers clear favorites to win the AL West.

They obtained Lee, Mark Lowe (who is out for the season with back surgery) and cash considerations from the Mariners for Justin Smoak, Blake Beavan, Matthew Lawson and Josh Lueke.

Though the Rangers' ownership is uncertain, GM Jon Daniels was able to add Lee and his $9MM salary with some creative deal-making. The Mariners will cover about $2.5MM of the $4.2MM remaining on Lee's salary, according to ESPN.com's Buster Olney (via Twitter), presumably because the Rangers included an appealing group of prospects. But giving up Lee wasn't easy, even for top young talent.

“This is a bittersweet day for us,” Mariners GM Jack Zduriencik said. “While we are excited about the group of young players we have acquired from the Rangers, it’s never easy to trade a player like Cliff Lee, who has been outstanding here.”

Justin Smoak has yet to stand out at the big league level, but has star potential. Baseball America ranked Smoak second among all Rangers prospects before the season, behind 2010 All-Star Neftali Feliz. The publication suggested Smoak, 23, has "a chance to be a switch-hitting slugger in the Mark Teixeira mold." So far, Smoak's big league performance has been less than Teixeira-esque. He has a .209/.316/.353 line with eight homers in half a season.

Beavan, 21, was the Rangers' first round pick in 2007 and is now pitching at AA. He has a 2.78 ERA with 5.6 K/9 and a Cliff Lee-like 1.0 BB/9. Baseball America ranked Beavan 17th among Rangers prospects before the season, explaining that he could become a back-of-the-rotation innings eater, even if his stuff doesn't improve.

Lawson, a 24-year-old second baseman is hitting .277/.371/.438 at AA, along with Lueke and Beavan. Lueke, 25, has a 3.86 ERA with 12.5 K/9 and 2.4 BB/9 as a reliever this year.

A lot of talent is heading to Seattle, but the Rangers will have the chance to reclaim some young players, even if Lee departs as a free agent after the season. Lee currently ranks as a Type A free agent, so the Rangers can obtain two top picks in the 2011 draft if they offer Lee arbitration and he turns it down to sign elsewhere.

Joel Sherman of the New York Post first reported that a deal was close and first reported that the Rangers had agreed to acquire Lee. Buster Olney, Jon Heyman, Ken Davidoff, Mark Feinsand, Bob Nightengale, Ken Rosenthal, Jon Paul Morosi, Ed Price, Evan Grant, T.R. Sullivan, Frankie Piliere and others added updates and details.

The Rangers outbid the many other clubs connected to Lee, including the Rays, Tigers, White Sox, Twins, Phillies, Mets, Cardinals, Dodgers and Reds. Oh yeah, and the Yankees.

So much for the Yankees’ unwillingness to hand over prospects for three month rentals. Brian Cashman & Co. offered Jesus Montero, David Adams and another prospect, possibly Zach McAllister, for Lee and were 'on the brink' of acquiring him earlier today. The Yankees thought they had a deal for the left-hander, according to Rosenthal (Twitter link), but it wasn't the case. The Mariners re-opened discussions with the Rangers, learned that Smoak was available, and the sides reached a deal.

For the deal that sent Lee to the Phillies click here; for the deal that sent Lee to the Mariners click here.

Reactions To The Cliff Lee Trade

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Now that we know for sure that Cliff Lee is headed to the Rangers, the pundits are already chiming in about the big swap — both about what it means for Texas and Seattle, and about what it means for the teams that fell short in the Lee sweepstakes.

  • Since the Rangers didn't have to give up any of their blue-chip pitching prospects, the trade is "a huge, huge 'win' for" Texas, tweets Evan P. Grant of the Dallas Morning News.
  • Grant also tweets that he was told that one of those young pitchers, Martin Perez, "was deemed untouchable" by the team.
  • Jim Bowden of Sirius XM Radio thinks "both teams win on this deal," though the Rangers are the "biggest winner" since it helps their chances in October.  Bowden also compliments the Mariners for getting more talent back for Lee than they dealt to acquire him in the winter.  (Twitter link).
  • USA Today's Bob Nightengale writes that last night, the Rangers thought that Lee was going to the Yankees.  (Twitter link)  Nightengale also thinks this trade makes Texas GM Jon Daniels the executive of the year.
  • The Phillies are taking some heat for not getting as much minor league talent for Lee when they dealt him over the winter.  ESPN's Jayson Stark tweets that one scouting director rated Philadelphia's haul for Lee as "last by a long shot" compared to what Seattle and Cleveland both got for the pitcher within the last year.
  • John Fay of the Cincinnati Enquirer reports that the Reds "made what they thought was a serious offer" for Lee today, though Fay thinks both "the Rangers and Yankees offered a better package than the Reds could have put together."
  • Ed Price of Fanhouse.com comments that the Rays didn't want to give up any significant prospects for Lee (via Twitter), while the Mets simply didn't have the caliber of prospects that Seattle was looking for.  Price notes, however, that Jeremy Guthrie could be on the Mets' radar screen.
  • The Mets could use this Lee deal as a guideline, however, tweets ESPN's Buster Olney.  The Mets could follow the Rangers' example and try to get a trading partner to add money into a deal, since Olney reports that New York won't be able to add to their payroll before the deadline.
  • Rays manager Joe Maddon is unsurprisingly happy that Lee isn't in Yankee pinstripes, reports Marc Topkin of the St. Petersburg Times.
  • Tigers general manager Dave Dombrowski says his team "had interest [in Lee], but we didn’t come close to a deal," reports John Lowe of the Detroit Free Press.
  • Alyson Footer of MLB.com tweets that the Lee trade may help Houston move Roy Oswalt, since the "more attractive pitcher is off the table & Roy is the next best option."

Odds & Ends: D-Backs, Padres, Brewers, Rangers

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Here are some links to check out while we all hope there won't be an hour long television special when Cliff Lee is traded… 

  • ESPN's Keith Law tweets that the Diamondbacks have signed fourth round pick Kevin Munson. Nick Piecoro of The Arizona Republic says Munson received a $243K bonus (via Twitter).
  • FoxSports.com's Jon Paul Morosi asked a scout if the Padres should make a trade for a right fielder now that Will Venable is on the disabled list (Twitter link)."No," said the scout. "Aaron Cunningham is playing better than Venable was." Cunningham was acquired from the A's as part of the Kevin Kouzmanoff–Scott Hairston deal, and is hitting .310/.318/.476 in 45 plate appearances this year.
  • The Brewers' front office watched four straight losses during their organizational meetings this week, and Morosi thinks (via Twitter) that has them looking more like a seller than buyer. 
  • Baseball fans aren't the only ones getting excited about a potential Cliff Lee trade. Players inside the Rangers' clubhouse are also thrilled about the possibility of adding the former Cy Young Award winner to the staff, according to MLB.com's T.R. Sullivan.
  • The Nationals have signed three more draft picks according to a team press release, including third rounder Rick Hague. The Nationals' faithful are still waiting on Bryce Harper, however.

Cliff Lee Rumors: Thursday

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The Twins aren’t close to a deal for Cliff Lee, but the Rangers are working hard to acquire him and a number of other clubs are involved. The Mariners are seeking a monster return for Lee, according to Jayson Stark of ESPN.com and Ken Rosenthal and Jon Paul Morosi of FOX Sports. Click here to check out yesterday’s Lee rumblings and check back throughout the day for the latest on the lefty:

  • MLB.com's Mark Sheldon reports that talks between Seattle and the Reds have yet to "hit the serious stages." No formal proposals have been exchanged between the two teams.
  • Lee appeared on ESPN 710's Brock and Salk earlier today, and said that he and his agent approached the Mariners about an extension before the season only to be told that the team wasn't "going to go down that road."
  • The Mariners are interested in some of the game’s top prospects and young players, sources tell Jon Heyman of SI.com. Their wish list includes catching prospects Jesus Montero (Yankees) and Wilson Ramos (Twins) plus Justin Smoak and Wade Davis. A competing team says the Twins are a “real” threat to acquire Lee, though we’re not accustomed to seeing them give up lots of talent at the deadline.
  • A rival executive told Heyman that the Rangers discussed Chris Davis and Jarrod Saltalamacchia in a possible Lee trade. As we heard earlier today, the Mariners prefer Smoak and would want more than Davis and Saltalamacchia.
  • The Mariners asked the Yankees for at least three prospects, including Montero, according to Heyman.
  • B.J. Upton’s name has come up, but Heyman suggests the Rays haven't offered him to the Mariners.
  • Larry Stone of the Seattle Times hears rumblings that the White Sox, who just lost Jake Peavy to the DL, are at least 'kicking tires' on Lee. That would not be a surprise given Kenny Williams' track record.
  • One MLB GM told Ken Rosenthal and Jon Paul Morosi of FOX Sports that the Rangers are the favorites to acquire Lee. The Rangers don’t want to include Justin Smoak in a trade and at least one rival executive believes they would be ‘crazy’ to do so. The Rangers’ desire to hold onto Smoak is one of the biggest barriers remaining between the two teams. If the Rangers trade Smoak, they could call on Chris Davis, who has a .961 OPS in Triple A.
  • Jon Paul Morosi of FOX Sports hears the Mets mentioned with Lee less and less frequently (Twitter link). The Mariners are looking to obtain a major league-ready power bat, but the Mets don't want to part with Ike Davis. 
  • Jack Curry of the YES Network says the Yankees are being thorough and will inquire on Lee, just as they would on any available player of his caliber (Twitter link). That doesn't mean the Yanks are willing to out-bid everyone else, however.
  • The Rangers and Mariners continue to discuss a possible Lee trade, according to Richard Durrett of ESPNDallas.com. The Rangers have spoken to numerous teams to figure out what it will take to improve the club for the stretch run.
  • In case there was any doubt remaining about the Mariners' asking price, John Fay of the Cincinnati Enquirer clears it up. An insider tells Fay that "it's going to take a ton," but Fay does not get the sense that a trade is about to happen.
  • The Rangers have financial restrictions, but MLB.com's T.R. Sullivan reports that they have some money ‘tucked away’ for making moves. GM Jon Daniels is ‘fully engaged’ in the Lee trade talk.
  • We know a lot of teams are interested in Lee, but how many? “Pretty much every team within five games of the playoffs," a source tells Ken Davidoff of Newsday (That's 17 teams). We’ve heard that the Mets may have trouble adding payroll, but GM Omar Minaya and his front office are operating as though they can add salary. That means Lee and Ted Lilly could be targets for the Mets.

What The Elias Rankings Mean For Trade Candidates

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Many of this year's trade candidates share a distinguishing characteristic: they are about to become free agents. After the season, their teams will decide whether to offer arbitration and have a chance at top picks in next year's draft. A player's ranking can contribute to or detract from his trade value, so let's take a look at some of this year's trade candidates and see where they place under our reverse-engineered Elias rankings. 

We'll start with some trade candidates who project as Type A free agents. If these players decline arbitration offers to sign elsewhere, their former teams will receive two top picks in the 2011 draft. These players are sometimes more inclined to accept arbitration, since their Type A status can intimidate would-be suitors who don't want to surrender a pick (just ask Juan Cruz and Orlando Hudson).

It's important to note that teams don't necessarily give first rounders up to sign the players below. The first 15 picks are protected and sometimes teams sign more than one Type A player. Say the Red Sox sign Adam Dunn (75.8 ranking) and Scott Downs (74.6 ranking) and both were offered arb. The Nationals would get Boston's top pick and the Blue Jays would get their second-best pick because Dunn ranks higher than Downs. In that instance, Downs only costs the Red Sox a second rounder.

Once a team signs one Type A free agent, the cost of signing a second and a third drops, since the club is giving up lesser picks. Rafael Soriano (88.9), Vladimir Guerrero (88.6), Carl Crawford (85.5), Javier Vazquez (79.0) and Adrian Beltre (78.9) could all get arbitration offers this winter, so Type As, especially lower-ranked players, don't always cost a first rounder. With that in mind, here are some trade candidates who currently have Type A status:

  • Cliff Lee (91.8) – He is getting an arbitration offer and turning it down. Lee's Type A status boosts his trade value.
  • Jayson Werth (86.0) – Same goes for Werth.
  • David DeJesus (78.3)- Matt Klaassen of FanGraphs argued yesterday that the Royals shouldn't offer arbitration, since DeJesus would accept. It's entirely possible that the Royals can get more value for DeJesus in a trade, but I don't think DeJesus would necessarily accept arbitration. He will easily be a top-five outfielder if his team lets him hit free agency instead of picking up his $6MM option. And if he accepts? The team has an above-average outfielder on an affordable one-year deal.
  • Adam Dunn (75.8) – He will get an arbitration offer and will probably turn it down. Dunn's Type A status boosts his trade value.
  • Scott Downs (74.6) – Earlier this week, I suggested the Blue Jays could offer Downs arbitration and either collect the picks or pay him $5MM or so in 2011. There's a good chance that Downs accepts an offer of arbitration, but the chance at two top picks probably makes that a risk worth taking. 
  • Miguel Tejada (74.4) – It's hard to imagine teams forfeiting picks to sign Tejada. It seems unlikely that a team would offer arbitration. Tejada's Type A status doesn't affect his trade value (and he is only a couple points away from becoming a Type B).
  • Ted Lilly (74.3) – Lilly will be a top free agent starter after the season, so the Cubs will likely offer arbitration. Lilly's Type A status boosts his trade value.

And here are some players who currently project as Type B free agents. These players will bring their former teams a supplementary round pick if they decline arbitration to sign elsewhere. But teams don't have to give up their picks to sign Type Bs, which makes these players appealing as free agents.

  • John Buck – J. P. Arencibia is Toronto's catcher of the future, but it's easy to imagine the Blue Jays (or another team) offering Buck arbitration after the season. It worked last year, when the Jays got a supplemental rounder for losing Rod Barajas. Buck wouldn't make much through arbitration, so his Type B status boosts his trade value.
  • Jose Guillen – It's extremely hard to imagine the Royals offering arbitration. His Type B status does not affect his trade value.
  • Mike Lowell – Same goes for Lowell.
  • Kevin Millwood – And for Millwood.
  • Jason Frasor – Frasor makes only $2.65MM this year, so he wouldn't be making an overwhelming amount even if he accepted arbitration. Obtaining a pick for Frasor would be a plus, so his Type B status helps his trade value.
  • Derrek Lee – Given Lee's struggles and salary, it's hard to imagine his team offering arbitration.
  • Cristian Guzman – Guzman makes $8MM this year and though players aren't guaranteed raises via this kind of arbitration, Guzman isn't even worth his current salary on the open market. An arbitration offer seems unlikely, so his status doesn't affect his trade value.
  • Octavio Dotel –  Like Frasor, Dotel could see an offer of arbitration, depending on how he finishes the season, so his Type B status helps his trade value. The Pirates have a $4MM option for Dotel that becomes mutual if he is traded.
  • Aaron Heilman – It seems unlikely that the D'Backs would feel comfortable offering Heilman arbitration, given his inconsistent performance in 2010, so his status doesn't help his trade value.

Cliff Lee Rumors: Wednesday

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The Cliff Lee trade talk started intensifying yesterday, as the Twins, Mets, Yankees, Rangers, Phillies and Tigers now have a new suitor to out-bid: the Rays. Not only are the Rays on the periphery of the Lee sweepstakes, they are ready to add payroll and appear willing to part with B.J. Upton. The Yankees are confident that they can jump in and pry Lee away from their divisional foes, but let's not rule out the Yanks' crosstown rivals. Here is the latest on Cliff Lee, with more rumors to come throughout the day:

  • MLB.com's T.R. Sullivan says that the Rangers are working hard to acquire Lee, but nothing is imminent. Texas has plenty of minor league talent to offer, but they don't appear to be willing to move Tanner Scheppers or Martin Perez according to Sullivan. Derek Holland, Blake Beavan, Chris Davis, Justin Smoak, and Jarrod Saltalamacchia could all be fair game.  Jeff Wilson of the Fort Worth Star-Telegram says the Mariners "inquired about the availability" of Davis and Saltalamacchia.  Righty Alexi Ogando is said to be on the Mariners radar, though "there is some resistance to include him in a deal" on the Rangers' side. 
  • Morosi expands on his earlier tweet, saying that the Reds and Mariners have exchanged names "in preliminary fashion," though the two sides have yet to exchange firm proposals. One GM called Cincinnati a "sleeper" in the Lee sweepstakes.
  • CSNNE.com's Sean McAdam checked on the status of Boston's interest in Lee earlier today, and heard that the asking price was too high (Twitter links). Seattle wants a "stud catcher" close to the bigs, which the Red Sox simply don't have.
  • Joe Christensen of the Minneapolis Star Tribune gets the impression that the Mariners aren't close to moving Lee, at least not to the Twins. He was also told that the two sides haven't exchanged official proposals, and that the Ramos-Hicks talk is "pure speculation."
  • The Mariners are seeking a “mammoth return” for Lee, according to Jon Paul Morosi and Ken Rosenthal of FOX Sports. One executive interested in the left-hander said the Mariners made a “crazy ask,” demanding an even better package than Wilson Ramos and Aaron Hicks.
  • FOX reports that the Twins offered Ramos and Kevin Slowey for Lee. At the moment, the Twins, Mets, Yankees and Rangers are most actively engaged with the Mariners in trade talks.
  • The Mariners are calling teams back and telling them that it will take two blue-chip prospects plus a third young player to acquire Lee, according to Jayson Stark of ESPN.com.
  • Two scouts tell Jon Paul Morosi of FOX Sports that third base prospect Juan Francisco would be the Reds' best trade chip, not Yonder Alonso (Twitter link).
  • ESPN.com’s Buster Olney hears that the Yankees are not engaged in trade talks for Lee now. They are confident they could acquire the left-hander, but do not intend to deal for him. Olney says the Twins are the favorites to acquire Lee, followed by the Reds, the Rays, the Mets, the Rangers and the field.
  • The Mets officials who have spoken to Joel Sherman of the New York Post don’t seem concerned that the Twins are the perceived frontrunners for Lee. The perception within the game is that the Mariners are leaning more toward scouting than number crunching, and the Mets believe that will work in their favor.
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