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Dakota Hudson

Dakota Hudson Unlikely To Pitch Again In 2020

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2:55pm: Hudson has been placed on the 10-day injured list, per the Cardinals. Righty Nabil Crismatt is up from the alternate site to take his spot on the active roster.

1:20pm: President of baseball operations John Mozeliak now tells reporters that Hudson’s injury is believed to be a flexor tendon issue, and he’s unlikely to pitch again in 2020 (Twitter link via Mark Saxon of The Athletic). The team is still awaiting an official diagnosis following the MRI.

Sept. 18, 8:00am: Cardinals manager Mike Shildt described his overall level of concern regarding Hudson’s injury as “fairly low,” per Richard Justice of MLB.com. Shildt termed the issue as a “minor” forearm strain. The club will know more after imaging, but both Shildt and Hudson himself were optimistic about his outlook postgame. Hudson added that he “felt good all the way up to that second inning” before experiencing some tightness and speaking up about the issue.

Sept. 17: Cardinals right-hander Dakota Hudson left the team’s game against the Pirates early on Thursday with elbow tightness. He’ll undergo an MRI on Friday, Derrick Goold of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch reports.

Hudson departed after throwing just two innings in another defeat for the Cardinals, who are 22-24 and fighting for a wild-card spot. Hudson has been an asset for the team, evidenced by his 2.77 ERA over 39 innings. It’s the third straight year in which he has defied fielding-independent numbers to post much better run prevention figures, evidenced by the 3.20 ERA and 4.72 FIP he has recorded over 239 innings since debuting in 2018. Hudson’s strikeout and walk rates (7.0 K/9 against 4.41 BB/9) haven’t been good, but he has offset those to some degree with a 57.4 groundball percentage.

At the very least, the Cardinals appear to have a legitimate MLB starter in Hudson, so the hope is that his elbow issue won’t stop him from pitching the rest of this year or cause him to miss time in 2021. The Cardinals may need all the rotation help they can get then with Hudson, Jack Flaherty and Kwang Hyun Kim seemingly the only members of their staff who appear to be locks for next year’s rotation. They could also get Miles Mikolas back from surgery on a right flexor tendon, though, while it remains to be seen whether Adam Wainwright will continue his career in 2021.

Cardinals’ Talks For Arenado “Haven’t Gone Anywhere”

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1:30pm: ESPN’s Jeff Passan tweets that while the Rockies and Cardinals have indeed exchanged some names, their talks on Arenado “haven’t gone anywhere” and the exchange of names “hasn’t been productive.”

11:29am: The Rockies and Cardinals “have begun exchanging names” of players of interest as they attempt to structure a potential deal that would send third baseman Nolan Arenado to St. Louis, MLB.com’s Jon Morosi reports. The Colorado organization is said to want both MLB and minor-league players to move their franchise cornerstone.

It’s a bit difficult to know what to make of this latest update. On the one had, it’s presented as a step forward. Morosi reported over the weekend that the sides had struck up “preliminary trade negotiations.” He now states that the chatter has “advanced beyond a preliminary stage.”

On the other, it seems hard to imagine that the sides had really been engaged in dialogue of much substance if no names of players other than Arenado even came up. As Derrick Goold of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch recently explained, the Cards have had “longstanding interest” in Arenado but have “found the Rockies’ asking price prohibitive.” So, it would appear the sides are only now returning to a level of discussion at which they’ve previously engaged without seeing eye to eye.

The real question here remains how motivated the Rockies are about taking advantage of the opportunity to move Arenado’s contract and get something in return. If so, then perhaps it is indeed notable that they are back to swapping possible names with the Cards. It’s obviously not the Rockies’ preference to move their biggest star, but there’s huge risk in holding pat given the roster’s 2019 backslide and a slate of contractual commitments that is straining the payroll that the organization has established.

Morosi does go on to name a few names, though again it is not clear how the information is best interpreted. The Rox have both interest and some misgivings in Dakota Hudson, says Morosi, who echoes Goold’s characterization of the Cards being utterly unwilling to discuss Jack Flaherty. In addition to contemplating Hudson, who certainly has his warts but also has thrown over 200 MLB innings of 3.25 ERA ball and won’t turn 26 until September, the Rox are said to be eyeing up the Cards’ top prospects as well.

This is where the skepticism really enters the picture, because that’s quite a haul of talent. Arenado is obviously well worth it from an on-field perspective, but his contract — which, as already written to death, gives him huge downside protection ($234MM guaranteed) with the upside of opting out after 2021 — is less than a straightforward asset to price. It would be a bit odd to see the Cardinals part with that kind of surplus value for the right to take over such a deal, particularly since the team wasn’t notably connected to free agent Anthony Rendon.

Morosi’s report takes a curious turn when he gets to Cardinals infielder Matt Carpenter. While the highly compensated veteran is said to be under consideration in talks, Morosi writes that “the Rockies don’t appear to be mandating his inclusion.” That’s a befuddling way to characterize a 34-year-old player who just wrapped up a subpar season and is owed a hefty $39MM over the next two years (including a buyout on an option). Clearly, the Rox would rather not have that contract; Carpenter would be included to help offset the Arenado obligations.

Once more, it’s tough to know what to make of that curious bit. There’s no chance the Rockies are clamoring for Carpenter, but it’s equally true that the club wouldn’t want the deal to seem publicly like a salary dump. So, perhaps this strained characterization constitutes evidence that the Colorado organization is preparing to sell an all-but-assuredly unpopular trade to a skeptical fan base. Or maybe that’s just reading into things.

Two things seem safe to say at this point: First, that there are reasonably serious discussions involving Arenado, with the Cardinals at least one of the teams engaged with the Rockies. (The Rangers and perhaps others are also seemingly still at least kicking around the periphery.) And second, that there remain a number of significant obstacles that must still be cleared to move an Arenado trade scenario from the realm of hypothetical plausibility to one approaching actualization.

Cardinals, Rockies Have Reportedly Engaged In Preliminary Arenado Talks

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The Cardinals and Rockies have recently engaged in “preliminary trade negotiations” regarding Nolan Arenado, reports Jon Morosi of MLB.com. Morosi characterizes the Redbirds as “a viable suitor” for the five-time All-Star.

Of course, a deal coming to fruition is far from certain. Indeed, just yesterday, we heard that a St. Louis acquisition of Arenado was unlikely. That the sides are talking could give Cardinals’ fans cause for hope, but it’s hardly proof anything will get across the finish line. Teams surely engage in preliminary negotiations on any number of scenarios without ultimately completing the deal all the time.

Just how far these talks between Colorado and St. Louis have yet progressed isn’t clear. The Cardinals are intent on adding an impact position player this offseason, Morosi notes, although a re-signing of free agent Marcell Ozuna could fill that void. Morosi adds that Dakota Hudson could be a central figure in Arenado talks, although that seems more speculative than a definitive report that Colorado is intent on acquiring the 25-year-old sinkerballer.

As Morosi notes, an Arenado deal would be difficult to pull off, whether for the Cardinals or another suitor. Arenado is due $234MM over the next seven years on the extension he signed last February. That’d be a huge commitment for any acquiring team, but it’s hardly unreasonable for a player of his caliber. Anthony Rendon signed for $245MM over the same term this offseason. While Rendon has been marginally better than Arenado over the past few seasons, the Rockies’ star is a year younger.

More difficult to navigate are Arenado’s full no-trade clause and post-2021 opt-out clause. Arenado has in the past been vocal about his desire to compete, and Morosi notes he admires the Cardinals’ franchise history and has a strong rapport with Paul Goldschmidt. It thus seems feasible he’d be willing to waive the no-trade clause, particularly if the Rockies pivot to a large-scale rebuild. It should be noted, however, Arenado himself has not addressed the no-trade clause publicly.

The opt-out clause poses a greater challenge. Suitors figure to be understandably reluctant to part with the kind of young talent Colorado would surely require for their franchise player if they fear he’ll depart after 2021. (Of course, if Arenado were to not exercise his opt-out in two years’ time, it’s probably an indicator he couldn’t beat the hefty $164MM he’s currently due from 2022-26 on the open market). Morosi reports that St. Louis could explore attempting to convince Arenado to waive his opt-out clause (particularly by guaranteeing him more money), but there’s hardly any indication he’d be willing to do so.

Arenado will surely remain one of the game’s most notable trade candidates unless a deal ultimately comes to fruition. Whether St. Louis or any other team can overcome the numerous hurdles to a deal is one of the offseason’s most fascinating storylines.

Latest On Cardinals’ Rotation Plans

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Entering camp, the expectation was that Carlos Martinez would regain his standing as a member of the Cardinals’ starting five. That may ultimately come to pass, though he’ll first need to work back to full strength. In Martinez’s absence, Mark Saxon of The Athletic tweets, the Cards will utilize either John Gant or Dakota Hudson to round out the rotation.

Gant, 26, is one of several out-of-options Cardinals hurlers. He pitched to a 3.47 ERA last year in 114 frames over 19 starts and seven relief appearances. The results came in spite of a marginal combination of 7.5 K/9 and 4.5 BB/9 with a 45.1% groundball rate. Gant’s success was driven largely by suppression of home runs (0.71 per nine) and batting average on balls in play (.253), the sustainability of which is questionable. If he’s not in the rotation, Gant will either need to find a landing spot in the bullpen or be exposed to waivers.

Options abound for Hudson, a 24-year-old former first-round pick. He could begin the season as the fifth big-league starter, take a job in the MLB pen, or stay stretched out in the Triple-A rotation. In 19 starts last year at the highest level of the minors, Hudson worked to a 2.50 ERA over 111 2/3 innings with 7.0 K/9 and 3.1 BB/9 to go with a hefty 57.5% groundball rate. The worm-burners kept coming during his 26-appearance foray into the Cards pen. Though he managed only 19 strikeouts against 18 walks in his first 27 1/3 MLB frames, Hudson allowed nary a home run. That’s no fluke; Hudson has permitted only eight long balls in over three hundred professional innings pitched.

Austin Gomber and Daniel Ponce de Leon are other 40-man members that might have been seen as possibilities. Each started MLB contests last year but has evidently already been ruled out of the Opening Day rotation race. As the news further suggests, hugely talented youngster Alex Reyes is also out of the mix to open the season as a starter. But that doesn’t mean he’ll necessarily be optioned at the end of camp. As Derrick Goold of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch tweets, manager Mike Shildt says that Reyes will be considered for a relief post. Reyes, 24, is working back from significant shoulder and elbow surgeries and will surely face innings limitations.

NL Central Notes: Martinez, Hamels, Diaz

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Carlos Martinez’s right shoulder is a major source of uncertainty for the Cardinals right now, as the righty was in camp with his arm in a sling yesterday following a platelet-rich plasma injection. Martinez was already halfway through a two-week shutdown when he received the injection, and the Cardinals indicated yesterday that said injection could push his timeline for throwing back another week. There’s been ample talk of Martinez pitching in a relief capacity this season, but Rick Hummel of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch quotes Martinez as plainly and confidently stating, “I’m going to start, man.” Because Martinez won’t resume throwing until mid-March, it seems virtually impossible for him to build up to a starter’s workload by the team’s season opener on March 28. As such, if there is indeed a plan for Martinez to work in the rotation, he’d need to start the season on the injured list. As Hummel writes, that’d open the door for one of Dakota Hudson or Austin Gomber to step into the starting five to begin the season. Manager Mike Shildt praised both Hudson and Gomber when discussing potential rotation options with Hummel.

Elsewhere in the NL Central…

  • Asked about his future in the game Wednesday, Cubs lefty Cole Hamels told a flock of reporters that he has zero intention of retiring anytime soon (Twitter link via MLB.com’s Mark Feinsand). There’s been little reason to think that Hamels, who just turned 35 in December, would give serious consideration to retirement, but his answer was nonetheless entertaining and telling of his goals. Hamels gave a blunt “Hell no!” when asked if he’s considered retirement and voiced a desire to play until he’s 45 years old, noting that he was a teammate of ageless wonder Jamie Moyer early in his career. Hamels had a rocky start to the season with the Rangers in 2018 but was revitalized by a trade to Chicago, as he pitched to a brilliant 2.36 ERA with 8.7 K.9, 2.7 BB/9, 0.7 HR/9 and a 47.7 percent grounder rate in 76 1/3 innings with the Cubs (12 starts).
  • Pirates catcher Elias Diaz is battling a viral illness, and it’s questionable whether he’ll be ready for Opening Day, as Nubyjas Wilborn of the Pittsburgh Post-Gazette writes. Pirates director of sports medicine Todd Tomczyk said that Diaz will be shut down from baseball activity for “a couple of weeks.” The 28-year-old Diaz quietly enjoyed somewhat of a breakout season in 2018, hitting .286/.339/.452 with 10 homers and a dozen doubles in just 277 plate appearances. He’s still firmly behind Francisco Cervelli on the team’s depth chart, but with Cervelli entering the final season of his current contract, the 2019 campaign could be a proving grounds for Diaz as he eyes the starter’s job in 2019. Presumably, 29-year-old Jacob Stallings would serve as Cervelli’s backup early in the year if Diaz isn’t ready to go, as he’s the only other catcher on Pittsburgh’s 40-man roster. The Bucs have minor league veteran Steven Baron in camp on a minor league deal as well.

Cardinals To Designate Greg Holland For Assignment, Promote Dakota Hudson

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11:28am: Derrick Goold of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch tweets that Holland will be designated for assignment — not released. That may well be a moot point, as the DFA will merely give the Cardinals a week (it had been 10 days prior to the new version of the CBA) to either trade Holland or place him on outright or release waivers. Holland would be able to reject an outright assignment in favor of free agency anyhow, so if the Cards aren’t able to find a taker on the trade market — which would assuredly require them to eat the vast majority of Holland’s remaining $4.89MM salary — then it seems he’ll hit the open market regardless.

11:17am: The Cardinals are expected to release right-hander Greg Holland today, reports Jon Morosi of MLB.com (Twitter links). His roster spot will go to pitching prospect Dakota Hudson, who is set to have his contract selected from Triple-A Memphis, per Morosi.

That report certainly meshes with some recent comments made by president of baseball operations on the Bernie Miklasz Show on ESPN 101, in which Mozeliak said to “expect changes” to the club’s bullpen in the near future (Twitter link). The Athletic’s Mark Saxon recently speculated that Holland would be cut loose and that Hudson would be brought up to the big league roster (Twitter link).

The Cardinals’ decision to sign Holland to a last-minute, one-year contract with a $14MM guarantee on Opening Day proved to be a catastrophic misstep for the club. Not only did St. Louis surrender a valuable selection in the 2018 draft to do so, but the Cardinals received nothing in the way of on-field value from the 2017 National League saves leader.

Holland missed all of Spring Training while waiting to find a deal he and agent Scott Boras dubbed suitable, and the Cardinals made the eyebrow-raising decision to bring him to the Majors after just two minor league appearances. Holland struggled immediately, walking four batters in his Cardinals debut on April 9. Those struggles were the first of many in 2018 for Holland, whose Cardinals tenure will come to a close with a 7.92 ERA, 22 strikeouts and 22 walks over the life of 25 innings.

As for his replacement on the roster, Hudson will come to the Cardinals having drawn considerable fanfare since being selected with the 34th overall pick in the 2016 draft. He ranked as the Cardinals’ No. 4 prospect on this week’s updated Top 30 rankings from Jim Callis and Jonathan Mayo of MLB.com, and while he falls outside that duo’s Top 100 overall prospects, Hudson is still viewed as a potential mid-rotation arm. The 23-year-old has pitched to a 2.50 ERA with 7.0 K/9, 3.0 BB/9 and a hefty 57.7 percent ground-ball rate through 111 2/3 innings in Triple-A Memphis this season.

Though Hudson is being promoted to replace a reliever, it seems quite likely that the organization will deploy him as a starter. Saxon speculated before that John Gant and/or Austin Gomber could be moved to the bullpen, with Hudson stepping into a starting spot and giving the Cards a couple of months to evaluate his future. Callis and Mayo note that while Hudson has four average or better offerings, led by his fastball and his slider, he still doesn’t miss many bats. His fastball/slider combo is strong enough, though, that he could work in relief even if he doesn’t pan out as a starter, per their report.

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