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Guardians Place Triston McKenzie On IL With Elbow Sprain

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8:44pm: As noted by Paul Hoynes of Cleveland.com, manager Terry Francona told reporters that an MRI revealed that McKenzie was suffering from inflammation in his right elbow, with Francona noting that the inflammation “means the UCL is involved.” It’s obviously less than ideal news for McKenzie, as UCL issues can often require Tommy John surgery, though it’s certainly possible that this issue won’t rise to that level. Per Francona, McKenzie will head back to Cleveland to be examined by team staff before the club determines next steps.

6:30pm: The Guardians are making a series of roster moves ahead of tonight’s game against the Diamondbacks, as noted by Zack Meisel of The Athletic. The club is placing right-hander Triston McKenzie on the injured list with a right elbow sprain, designating right-hander Touki Toussaint for assignment, selecting the contract of left-hander Daniel Norris, and recalling left-hander Tim Herrin from Triple-A. Meisel also notes that the club is recalling catcher Bo Naylor, as previously expected.

McKenzie, who was scratched from yesterday’s start with elbow discomfort, now heads to the IL with a sprain in his right elbow. While further details have not yet been made available, it’s certainly an ominous diagnosis for the 25-year-old hurler, particularly after missing the first two months of the season with a teres major strain. McKenzie made just two starts before returning to the IL, striking out ten over five scoreless innings against the Twins before getting lit up for five runs in five innings against the Astros at home last week.

Of course, McKenzie was a key factor in Cleveland’s success last season as he threw 191 1/3 innings with a 2.96 ERA and 3.59 FIP. McKenzie posted an excellent 25.6% strikeout rate against a walk rate of just 5.9% as he helped to lead the Guardians to a surprising AL Central crown before the club fell to the Yankees in the ALDS. The club has struggled to replicate its 2022 campaign this year, with a record of just 32-37 that leaves them three games back of the Twins in a weak AL Central division.

Some of those struggles can be attributed to the uncertainty facing the club’s starting rotation, as only Shane Bieber has managed to stay healthy and effective as a starter throughout the entire season to this point, though youngsters Logan Allen and Tanner Bibee have done well following in-season promotions. Unfortunately, that uncertainty appears poised to continue with McKenzie headed back to the injured list with what could be another lengthy absence, though his timetable for return will remain uncertain until the club provides additional clarity on the situation.

Joining the club’s pitching staff as McKenzie exits is a pair of left-handers. Herrin, a 26-year-old who made his MLB debut for the Guardians earlier this season, struggled to a 6.39 ERA and 4.54 FIP in ten major league appearances but has posted more palatable numbers at the Triple-A level with a 3.93 ERA in 18 1/3 innings of work. Norris, meanwhile, signed with the Guardians on a minor league deal back in March. He’s struggled to a 6.93 ERA in 14 appearances (nine starts) at the Triple-A level this season, though the veteran has pitched in parts of nine major league seasons and has been roughly league average by measure of ERA+, with figure of 99 in 569 2/3 career innings of work.

Making room for Norris on the active roster is Toussaint, who departs the Guardians after making a spot start last night in McKenzie’s stead. The 27-year-old former first round pick allowed two runs on three hits and five walks over 3 2/3 innings of work while striking out two against the Diamondbacks yesterday. The Guardians now figure to either attempt to swing a trade involving the right-hander or attempt to pass him through waivers. If successful in doing so, Cleveland could outright Toussaint to Triple-A, where he would continue to serve as pitching depth for the club going forward.

Best Deadline Rental Returns In Recent History: Honorable Mentions

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The calendar has flipped to June, and more than one-third of the season is in the rearview mirror. While there’s still plenty of time for the standings to change in dramatic fashion — just ask the 2022 Phillies or 2019 Nationals — the “early” portion of the season is a bit behind us. As the weather heats up and playoff pictures begin to take a more definitive shape, the baseball world inherently turns its focus to a few things: the looming All-Star Game, the upcoming amateur draft and, of course, the annual trade deadline.

June trades of note are admittedly rare — particularly over the past ten years or so — but we’re fast approaching the portion of the season where trade needs, potential trade candidates and many other deadline-adjacent minutiae begin to crystallize. It’s common for fans of rebuilding and/or underperforming clubs to begin to wonder just what sort of returns their favorite team might be able to eke out for veteran players with dwindling club control.

Some of the most common questions we’re asked in chats at MLBTR these days center around what a team might be able to get for a certain player — rentals in particular. Names like Lucas Giolito, Cody Bellinger, Jordan Montgomery and Jeimer Candelario were just a few readers asked me about this past week. To be clear, it’s not a given that all or even any of those specific names will change hands in two months’ time (or sooner), but it’s obviously a hot topic that’s on people’s minds.

As such, it only seemed natural to take a look back through recent history and look at some high-profile trades of rental players and see which panned out the best for the team selling off the veteran player in question. Over the next couple weeks, we’ll roll out a look at the ten “best” returns for rental players in recent trade deadline history.

A few caveats of note! At times, it can take three, four, five years or even longer for a team to begin reaping the benefits from such a deal. An immediate return isn’t always apparent, particularly when you’re only selling two months of a player or players. As such, we’re not considering trades completed at last year’s deadline for our top ten, even though they could well prove excellent as soon as 2024 or 2025. It’s simply too soon to evaluate those swaps. Also, these rankings are subjective; they’re not based on a hard-and-fast WAR criteria or anything of the sort. If you think we should’ve ranked No. 7 higher and No. 4 lower, let us know. It’s all part of the fun.

While I said we’re omitting last year’s deadline from our top ten, that doesn’t mean we’ll completely ignore the results of the 2022 deadline. To kick off the series, here’s a quick look at three honorable mentions from 2017-21 as well as a handful of 2022 trades that will be worth keeping an eye on in the years to come. Present-day impact of these 2022 trades has either been minimal or nonexistent, but each brought the “selling” team some nearly MLB-ready help that could be impactful as soon as this season. These honorable mentions and 2022 swaps aren’t ranked — they’re just sorted alphabetically by the last name of the player who was traded.

Let’s begin!

Honorable Mentions

Orioles acquire RHPs Dillon Tate, Cody Carroll and LHP Josh Rogers from the Yankees in exchange for LHP Zack Britton (7/24/18)

Two-thirds of this return for Baltimore wound up making little to no impact, but the acquisition of Tate, a former No. 4 overall draft pick, wound up paying dividends. Though Tate isn’t the rotation piece the Rangers hoped for when drafting him or the Yankees envisioned when acquiring him for Carlos Beltran, he’s emerged as a quality setup man at Camden Yards. The O’s gave Tate just ten starts after the trade before moving him to the bullpen, and while his rookie effort in 2019 left plenty to be desired, he’s since pitched quite well.

Dating back to 2020, Tate has a 3.65 ERA in 158 innings of relief, adding 25 holds and eight saves along the way. Tate’s 19.1% strikeout rate is below-average, but his 6.8% walk rate is better than average and his 57.9% grounder rate is outstanding. In 2022, he pitched to a pristine 3.05 ERA through 73 2/3 frames, tallying five of those saves and 16 of those holds. A forearm strain has kept Tate out of action this year, however.

Tate isn’t peak Britton and likely never will be, but trading two months of an elite reliever and winding up with six years of club control over an above-average reliever isn’t a bad outcome for Baltimore. As for the Yankees, they got the tail end of Britton’s prime. He notched a 2.88 ERA in 25 innings down the stretch and re-signed on a three-year deal with a fourth year option (that had to be exercised after the contract’s second season to prevent a Britton opt-out). Britton posted a sub-2.00 ERA in both 2019 and 2020, but he pitched just 19 innings over his final two years in New York due to injuries.

Rays acquire LHP Jalen Beeks from the Red Sox in exchange for RHP Nathan Eovaldi (7/25/18)

Few could’ve predicted what an impactful trade this would end up being at the time it was made. At the time of the swap, Eovaldi was in his first season back from Tommy John surgery and had pitched 57 innings of 4.26 ERA ball for Tampa Bay. He’d long intrigued teams with his power arsenal but was inconsistent and carried a career ERA that more or less matched that season total.

Eovaldi took off in Boston, however, tossing 54 frames of 3.33 ERA ball as the Sox marched to the postseason, where he cemented his status in Red Sox lore. Eovaldi was a star that October, tossing 22 1/3 innings of 1.61 ERA ball with a 16-to-3 K/BB ratio. Those are impressive numbers on their own, but they only tell part of the tale. Eovaldi won his first two starts of the playoffs before moving to the bullpen and picking up a pair of holds. But it was Game 3 of the World Series, where Eovaldi gutted out six innings of relief in an 18-inning marathon and finished out the game, that many will remember. The Dodgers wound up winning when Eovaldi’s 97th (!) pitch out of the bullpen was deposited in the seats by Max Muncy, but he saved the Boston bullpen with six innings of one-run ball that night. The Sox went on to win the World Series in five games.

As for the Rays, they came away with a lefty who’d come up through Boston’s system as a starter but would be used in a jack-of-all-trades role in St. Petersburg. Beeks has served as a long reliever, a setup man and an opener in parts of five seasons with Tampa Bay, totaling 258 innings of 4.12 ERA ball along the way. He’s been the type of versatile arm whose value can’t be neatly encapsulated in what looks like an otherwise modest WAR total. Beeks has handled just about any role the Rays could ask, and he’s generally been effective in doing so. He’s not a star, but he’s been an important member of their pitching staff for a half decade now and is still under team control through the 2024 season.

Tigers acquire RHP Reese Olson from the Brewers in exchange for LHP Daniel Norris (7/30/21)

The 23-year-old Olson made his big league debut on Friday when he stepped into the Detroit rotation to take the spot of the injured Eduardo Rodriguez. As far as debuts go, it was nearly as good as a young pitcher could ask for. Olson carried a no-hitter into the sixth inning before being tagged for a pair of runs and departing five frames of two-run ball in the books.

Olson isn’t regarded among the sport’s top 100 prospects and isn’t even universally considered to be among the Tigers’ top 10 prospects, but he’s missed bats consistently in the upper minors and is regarded as a potential long-term rotation piece if he can improve upon the command of his fastball. Scouting reports at Baseball America, FanGraphs, The Athletic and MLB.com praise Olson’s secondary pitches, particularly his changeup, which he’s begun using effectively even in right-on-right situations.

Detroit has seen a lot of turnover in the baseball operations department since this trade, but former GM Al Avila, AGM David Chadd and others will be in line for some praise if the Tigers get a viable big leaguer in exchange for two months of the veteran Norris, who was sitting on a 5.38 ERA in 36 2/3 innings at the time of the deal. Norris had been tough on lefties, and the Brewers surely felt they could coax a higher level of performance out of him with some tweaks. That didn’t happen, however, as Norris was rocked for a 6.64 ERA in Milwaukee, walking 15 of the 63 batters he faced (23.8%) and serving up five homers in 20 1/3 frames (2.2 HR/9).

2022 Deadline Swaps to Watch

Pirates acquire RHP Johan Oviedo, INF Malcom Nunez from the Cardinals in exchange for LHP Jose Quintana, RHP Chris Stratton (8/2/22)

Yes, technically this isn’t a pure rental. Stratton had an additional year of club control, and that surely factored into the return. But he was also sitting on a 5.09 ERA at the time of the deal, and this was largely a trade centered around getting Quintana to land some much-needed rotation help in St. Louis.

The Cardinals got just what they wanted out of this deal — and then some. Quintana stepped into the rotation and not only solidified the staff but pitched to a brilliant 2.01 ERA in 62 2/3 frames down the stretch. The lefty was so excellent that St. Louis wound up tabbing him as the Game 1 starter in last year’s National League Division Series. Quintana had signed a one-year, $2MM deal in the offseason and was acquired as a back-end starter but pitched like an ace. The script doesn’t get much better for the acquiring team.

That said, this trade also has the makings of a winner for Pittsburgh. The 25-year-old Oviedo has been inconsistent but shown flashes of brilliance with the Bucs. He’s throwing fewer fastballs and more breaking pitches — particularly more curveballs, which has been an extremely effective offering for him through 11 starts. Oviedo’s 4.50 ERA in 58 innings looks pretty pedestrian, but he’s upped his ground-ball rate and improved his velocity even in a rotation role. He’s allowed one or zero runs in six of his 11 starts this year. The Pirates can control Oviedo for four more years beyond the current season, and if he’s a legitimate starter or even a multi-inning relief piece, that’ll be a fine return for their modest Quintana flier. Nunez, meanwhile, hit .286/.381/.476 in Double-A following the trade and is at .255/.338/.369 in 160 Triple-A plate appearances this year.

Cubs acquire RHP Ben Brown from the Phillies in exchange for RHP David Robertson (8/2/22)

Robertson was one of the most in-demand relievers — or trade candidates in general — at last year’s deadline, and the rebuilding/retooling Cubs needed to get their return right. So far, it looks like they’ve done just that. Brown is out to a sensational start in the upper minors this year, pitching to a combined 2.63 ERA with a 35.5% strikeout rate against a less-appealing 11.7% walk rate. Baseball America ranked him sixth among Cubs prospects heading into the season, and The Athletic’s Keith Law called him a “heck of a get for two months of a 37-year-old reliever.” FanGraphs currently has him ranked 87th on their top-100 prospect list, and MLB.com moved him into its top-100 just this morning.

Despite Brown’s wide-reaching acclaim, the Phillies might not even regret making the swap. Robertson struggled with his command following the trade but still posted 22 1/3 innings of 2.70 ERA ball and saved six games for Philadelphia down the stretch in a tight Wild Card race that saw them edge out the Brewers by exactly one win. The Phillies needed every single victory, and if they’d held onto Brown and targeted a different reliever(s), who knows whether they’d have reached the playoffs? Were it not for Robertson — who pitched 7 2/3 innings of one-run ball in the playoffs — the Phils may never have experienced J.T. Realmuto’s NLDS inside-the-parker, Rhys Hoskins’ four-homer NLCS, or Bryce Harper’s iconic NLCS-clinching bomb.

Angels acquire OFs Mickey Moniak, Jadiel Sanchez from the Phillies in exchange for RHP Noah Syndergaard (8/2/22)

This trade might not have gone as well as the Phillies hoped. Syndergaard was decent down the stretch, pitching to a 4.12 ERA in 10 appearances, nine of them starts. He started just twice in the postseason and made one relief appearance. Syndergaard pitched like a fourth or fifth starter but saw his already diminished velocity and strikeout rate step even further back following the trade. Again, the Phils needed every last win to get to the playoffs, though, so it’s hard to say they’d definitively have done anything different. They won six of Syndergaard’s nine starts and also picked up the victory in the lone game they used him out of the bullpen, when he tossed two scoreless frames.

At least thus far, Angels fans can’t complain about the return. Moniak isn’t going to sustain a .429 batting average on balls in play, but he’s hitting .327/.340/.694 in 50 plate appearances. The BABIP and a 34% strikeout rate scream for regression, but the former 1-1 pick has already hit as many homers through 50 trips to the plate with the Halos (four) as he did in 167 with the Phillies. He’s played good defense, run well and given some hope that he can carve out a role moving forward.

Red Sox acquire INF Enmanuel Valdez, OF Wilyer Abreu from the Astros in exchange for C Christian Vazquez (8/1/22)

Trading Vazquez was part of a disjointed Red Sox trade deadline that saw Boston trade away their longtime catcher and lefty reliever Jake Diekman while also acquiring Eric Hosmer and Tommy Pham. It wasn’t clear that their 2023 roster was improved, and the decision to hold onto other trade targets while adding Pham’s salary left them just over the luxury tax line (thereby reducing their compensation for qualifying offers extended to Xander Bogaerts and Nathan Eovaldi).

Digression aside, the swap might prove beneficial to the Sox in the long run. Valdez has already made his big league debut, and although his bat faded after a hot start, he’s still sporting a passable .244/.292/.422 batting line (91 wRC+) in his first 97 big league plate appearances. He’s picked up four homers, four doubles and three steals (in four tries) while subbing in at second base in the wake of a slew of middle-infield injuries. Valdez posted absolutely massive numbers in 205 Double-A plate appearances last year (.357/.463/.649) before moving up to Triple-A and hitting .265/.327/.488.

Abreu, meanwhile, was added to the 40-man roster over the winter and is hitting .264/.379/.479 in 40 Triple-A games so far. He’s regarded as a potential plus outfield defender, and his success in Triple-A and status on the 40-man roster mean the Red Sox could possibly have two MLB contributors within a year or so of trading Vazquez.

It’s hard to say anything moves the 2022 Astros made “didn’t work out,” as the team won the World Series in the end. But Vazquez took a backseat to Martin Maldonado both in the regular season and the playoffs, hitting just .250/.278/.308 in 108 regular-season plate appearances following the swap (plus .235/.316/.235 in just 19 playoff plate appearances).

Guardians, Daniel Norris Agree To Minor League Deal

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The Guardians are in agreement with reliever Daniel Norris on a minor league contract, tweets Mandy Bell of MLB.com. He’ll report to minor league camp and likely open the season with Triple-A Columbus.

Norris had been in camp with the Reds but was released on Monday. That came on the heels of a tough Spring Training, as he’d allowed six runs (five earned) over 6 2/3 innings with seven walks and five strikeouts. That predictably wasn’t enough to earn a season-opening roster spot in spite of a Cincinnati bullpen that only has one lock for left-handed relief (Reiver Sanmartin).

A veteran of parts of nine big league campaigns, the 29-year-old Norris split last season between the Cubs and Tigers. He threw 58 2/3 innings over 41 outings, pitching to a 5.22 ERA with an above-average 26.4% strikeout rate and a lofty 11.6% walk percentage. It was a tail of two seasons, as Norris had plenty of punchouts and walks in Chicago before trimming both numbers later in the year with Detroit.

The Guardians will be without top southpaw Sam Hentges to start the season, as he’s battling shoulder inflammation. That thinned the left-handed bullpen depth. Cleveland informed reporters this afternoon that 26-year-old Tim Herrin will break camp in the MLB bullpen (relayed by Zack Meisel of the Athletic). He’ll be the only southpaw in Terry Francona’s Opening Day relief corps.

Herrin, a 29th-round draftee out of Indiana in 2018, split the 2022 campaign between Double-A Akron and Columbus. He worked 69 1/3 frames, allowing a 4.02 ERA. Herrin’s strikeout and walk numbers were much more eye-catching than the run prevention. He fanned 34.1% of opponents against a 7.8% walk percentage. Cleveland added him to the 40-man roster over the offseason to keep him out of the Rule 5 draft. He’s now going to get a chance to make his big league debut after striking out 11 with two walks in 9 2/3 frames of five-run ball in camp.

Reds Release Daniel Norris

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The Reds announced Monday that they’ve released left-handed reliever Daniel Norris, who’d been in camp on a minor league deal. Cincinnati also optioned outfielder Stuart Fairchild to Triple-A Louisville and reassigned righty Silvino Bracho and infielder/outfielder Alejo Lopez to minor league camp.

It’s been a tough spring for Norris, who’s appeared in seven games with the Reds but been tagged for six runs (five earned) in 6 2/3 innings of work. Opponents have collected a dozen hits against the veteran southpaw, and he’s shown some troubling command issues as well. Norris has walked seven of his 40 opponents and plunked another three.

The 29-year-old Norris was once regarded as one of the top prospects in all of baseball, even headlining the Tigers’ return for David Price (alongside Matthew Boyd) when trading him to the Blue Jays at the 2015 trade deadline. He’s shown promise at varying points — 3.55 ERA in 129 1/3 frames with the Tigers from 205-16 — but Norris has also been slowed by injuries and a frightening battle with thyroid cancer, which he thankfully overcame.

Norris split the 2021-22 seasons between the Cubs, Tigers and Brewers but turned in a sub-par 5.68 ERA in 115 2/3 innings during that time. He was far more impressive with Detroit during the shortened 2020 season, logging a 3.25 ERA with a 24.1% strikeout rate and strong 6% walk rate in 27 2/3 innings out of the bullpen.

Overall, Norris has a 4.71 ERA in 569 2/3 big league innings. He’s fanned just under a quarter of his opponents over the past three seasons — an improvement from his early-career levels — but those increased punchouts have came with an increase in walks as well. Norris walked hitters at an 8.6% clip through 2019 but has issued free passes at a 10.7% rate over the past three years. He’ll look for opportunities elsewhere, and while teams in need of a left-handed reliever could well have interest in him as a depth piece, he might have to take another minor league deal and pitch his way onto a big league roster with a strong showing in Triple-A.

As far as the Reds’ bullpen is concerned, Norris’ release could bode well for lefty Alex Young. The former D-backs and Giants hurler is also in camp on a non-roster deal, but he’s had a much stronger showing, allowing just two runs with a 9-to-2 K/BB ratio in eight innings. Either Young or waiver claim Bennett Sousa would give manager David Bell a second lefty alongside Reiver Sanmartin. Sousa is already on the 40-man roster.

NL Central Notes: Helsley, Reds, Stephenson

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Ahead of their victory over Ryan Helsley in an arbitration hearing, the Cardinals reportedly discussed a multi-year deal with the right-hander, according to The Athletic’s Katie Woo. Woo notes that the sides were far apart, with the biggest issue being Helsley’s durability. As Woo notes, the Cardinals were concerned with Helsley’s rarely pitching on back-to-back days last year, while Helsley’s camp pointed out that he frequently went multiple innings during appearances as an explanation for that.

Helsley pitched on back-to-back days eight times in 2022, with eighteen of his 54 appearances lasting longer than 1.0 IP, though just nine of his appearances involved pitch counts greater than 25. Whatever one makes of his durability, however, Helsley certainly turned in a dominant 2022 season as he pitched to a sterling 1.25 ERA good for a 306 ERA+, meaning he was more than three times more effective than the league average pitcher in 2022. That performance was backed by a strong 2.34 FIP thanks to Helsley’s fantastic 39.3% strikeout rate and solid 8.4% walk rate. His K-BB% of 31 ranked fourth best in the majors last year among those with at least 60 innings of work.

For his part, Helsley told reporters that there were “no hard feelings” between himself and the organization, though he noted that the arbitration process was a tough one and that he and other players “wish it was a little different.”

Elsewhere in the NL Central…

  • Reds catcher Tyler Stephenson will likely see more time off from his duties behind the plate this year, manager David Bell tells reporters, including Bobby Nightengale of the Cincinnati Enquirer. Bell plans for Stephenson to catch around 65 games this season, with about 80 games split between the DH slot and first base, allowing him to play around 140-50 games this season. Stephenson was limited to just 50 games and 183 plate appearances in 2022 due to injuries, but he hit well in those appearances, slashing .319/.372/.484, good for a wRC+ of 134. That overall line was likely helped by an inflated .409 BABIP, but as a career 119 wRC+ hitter, Stephenson still figures to be a key cog in the Reds lineup in 2023 as long as he can stay healthy. The Reds are no doubt hoping that less time behind the plate will help Stephenson stay on the field this year, while still allowing him to primarily be a catcher. The Reds expect to roster three catchers headed into Opening Day, with Curt Casali and Luke Maile both signed to big league deals.
  • Sticking with the Reds, Bell tells reporters, including Mark Sheldon of MLB.com, that his hope is to have more than one left-handed reliever in his bullpen this year. Reiver Sanmartin is the only lefty currently expected to be part of Cincinnati’s Opening Day bullpen, coming off a difficult season where he posted a 6.32 ERA (71 ERA+) in 57 innings with the big league club. Two potential options to join Sanmartin in the bullpen this year are Daniel Norris and Alex Young, both of whom are in camp on non-roster invitations. Norris struggled in 2022, posting a 5.22 ERA (76 ERA+) in 58 2/3 innings split between the Cubs and the Tigers last year. Young, however, found success in 2022 pitching for the Guardians and Giants. The lefty posted a 2.36 ERA (175 ERA+) with a 2.89 FIP in 26 2/3 innings, almost all of which came in San Francisco.

Reds Sign Daniel Norris To Minor League Deal

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The Reds announced Wednesday that they’ve signed left-handed reliever Daniel Norris to a minor league contract and invited him to big league camp. The Excel Sports client will vie for a job in the Cincinnati bullpen this spring.

Norris, 29, split the 2021-22  seasons between the Tigers, Brewers and Cubs, struggling to a combined 5.68 ERA through 115 2/3 innings across the three clubs. It’s a far cry from his excellent showing with the Tigers during the shortened 2020 campaign, when he pitched to a 3.25 ERA with a 24.1% strikeout rate against a 6% walk rate through 27 2/3 frames.

Once regarded as one of the top prospects in all of baseball, Norris was the headline piece in the 2015 trade that also sent Matthew Boyd and Jairo Labourt from the Blue Jays to the Tigers in return for then-ace David Price. Norris showed promise at varying points with Detroit — 3.55 ERA in 129 1/3 innings from 2015-16 — but was also slowed by health troubles, most notably including a frightening bout with thyroid cancer.

All told, Norris carries a 4.71 ERA in 569 2/3 innings at the MLB level. He’s punched out 21.6% of his opponents overall but has piled up strikeouts at an above-average 24.8% clip over the past three seasons. Conversely, he has a solid 8.6% walk rate in his career but has seen that mark creep up to 10.7% over the past three years.

The Cincinnati bullpen recently lost one of its most talented relievers, Tejay Antone, for as much as half the season following a flexor strain that required a platelet-rich plasma injection. Alexis Diaz is locked in as the closer, while Lucas Sims and Buck Farmer are virtual locks in the setup corps. At the moment, Reiver Sanmartin is the lone lefty reliever on the 40-man roster, but he’s coming off 57 innings with a 6.32 ERA, a poor 18.4% strikeout rate and a bloated 11.3% walk rate. Sanmartin was solid against lefties but walked nearly as many righties (12.1%) as he struck out (12.9%) while yielding a jarring .324/.404/.529 slash against them.

Norris will join Alex Young as one of two veteran non-roster lefties vying for a spot in manager David Bell’s bullpen, so he ought to have a decent chance at winning a job if he pitches well this spring.

Which Remaining Free Agent Relievers Are Coming Off The Best Seasons?

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The offseason floodgates opened this month, with an avalanche of free agent activity once the Winter Meetings got underway. Things have quieted down in recent days thanks to the holidays, but clubs are likely to again get back to attacking the free agent market in earnest this week.

Most of the winter’s top names are off the board, leaving teams to mostly look through lower-cost options as they search for upgrades on the margins of the roster. There are still a number of experienced options available, particularly for teams seeking to round out the bullpen. Using MLBTR’s free agent list, we find 47 pitchers who tossed at least 20 innings out of a team’s bullpen in 2022 and remain unsigned.

We’ll sort the remaining free agent relievers by various metrics of 2022 performance to identify some of the top arms. There are obviously other factors for teams to consider — quality of raw stuff, pre-2022 track record, the player’s injury history, etc. — but a brief snapshot on the top bullpen arms by last year’s performance should provide a decent starting point for players teams might target moving forward. (All figures cited, including league averages, are looking solely at pitchers’ outings as relievers).

ERA (league average — 3.86)

  1. Matt Moore (LHP), 1.95
  2. Alex Young (LHP), 2.08
  3. Matt Wisler (RHP), 2.23
  4. Wily Peralta (RHP), 2.72
  5. Brad Hand (LHP), 2.80
  6. Andrew Chafin (LHP), 2.83
  7. David Phelps (RHP), 2.87
  8. Ralph Garza Jr. (RHP), 3.34
  9. Jackson Stephens (RHP), 3.38
  10. Michael Fulmer (RHP), 3.39

Strikeout rate (league average — 23.6%)

  1. Daniel Norris (LHP), 30%
  2. Darren O’Day (RHP), 27.7%
  3. Andrew Chafin, 27.6%
  4. Matt Moore, 27.3%
  5. Aroldis Chapman (LHP), 26.9%
  6. Steve Cishek (RHP), 25.8%
  7. Chasen Shreve (LHP), 25.4%
  8. Will Smith (LHP), 24.9%
  9. David Phelps, 23.9%
  10. Noé Ramirez, 23.7%

Strikeout/walk rate differential (league average — 14.5 percentage points)

  1. Andrew Chafin, 19.8 points
  2. Daniel Norris, 19 points
  3. Darren O’Day, 17 points
  4. Chasen Shreve, 16.7 points
  5. Steve Cishek, 16.4 points
  6. Craig Stammen (RHP), 15.7 points
  7. Will Smith, 15.3 points
  8. Matt Moore, 14.8 points
  9. Ross Detwiler (LHP), 14.8 points
  10. Luke Weaver (RHP), 13.8 points

Ground-ball rate (league average — 43.5%)

  1. Luis Perdomo (RHP), 62.5%
  2. Joe Smith (RHP), 57.5%
  3. Alex Young, 55.7%
  4. Alex Colomé (RHP), 55.6%
  5. T.J. McFarland (LHP), 53%
  6. Craig Stammen, 52.6%
  7. Garrett Richards (RHP), 52.4%
  8. Bryan Shaw (RHP), 51.8%
  9. Andrew Chafin, 51.3%
  10. Jacob Barnes (RHP), 50.7%

FIP (league average — 3.86)

  1. Luke Weaver, 2.46
  2. Alex Young, 2.65
  3. Matt Moore, 2.98
  4. Andrew Chafin, 3.06
  5. David Phelps, 3.11
  6. Garrett Richards, 3.16
  7. Jackson Stephens, 3.45
  8. Michael Fulmer, 3.57
  9. Brad Hand, 3.93
  10. Darren O’Day, 4.04

Innings Pitched

  1. Matt Moore, 74
  2. Caleb Smith (LHP), 69
  3. Steve Cishek, 66 1/3
  4. Michael Fulmer, 63 2/3
  5. David Phelps, 62 2/3
  6. Hunter Strickland (RHP), 62 1/3
  7. Will Smith, 59
  8. Andrew Chafin, 57 1/3
  9. Bryan Shaw, 54
  10. Jackson Stephens/Hirokazu Sawamura (RHP), 50 2/3 each

Tarik Skubal Visiting Specialist With Elbow Issue; Expected To Miss Remainder Of Season

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4:32pm: Skubal is set to visit orthopedic surgeon Dr. Neal ElAttrache next week, reports Chris McCosky of the Detroit News (Twitter link). The 25-year-old is alarmingly dealing with some form of elbow injury, although Hinch declined to speculate as to whether surgery was a possibility until the results of next week’s testing became apparent. McCosky adds that Skubal will not return to the mound in 2022 in any event.

3:03pm: The Tigers announced Friday that they’ve transferred lefty Tarik Skubal from the 15-day injured list to the 60-day injured list. The move opens a spot on the roster for lefty Daniel Norris, whose contract has been formally selected from Triple-A Toledo (as previously reported). It also casts doubt on whether Skubal will return at all in the 2022 season. Since he was placed on the 15-day IL on Aug. 2, there’s still technically time for him to get back for the final week of games in early October — but today’s move makes that look fairly unlikely.

It’s a fairly surprising shift for Skubal, who was placed on the injured list due to general arm fatigue. Skubal was lifted from his final start of the season after five efficient innings and downplayed any severity, telling the Tigers beat that he anticipated making his next start. Instead, it’s now possible that he won’t pitch in a game until next season. The Tigers didn’t provide any further updates on Skubal’s health beyond the move to the 60-day IL, though manager AJ Hinch will presumably divulge some additional context prior to tonight’s game.

If Skubal’s season is indeed over, it was a strong breakout year for the former top prospect. The 25-year-old will fall shy of last year’s 149 2/3 innings, but in the 117 2/3 frames he managed during the 2022 campaign, Skubal worked to a 3.52 ERA with a 24.5% strikeout rate, a strong 6.7% walk rate and a solid 45.7% grounder rate. Most importantly, he maintained the generally sharp strikeout and walk rates he’d displayed in 2021 while dramatically scaling back his home-run rate (2.11 HR/9 in 2021; 0.69 HR/9 in 2022). If Skubal can continue to miss bats, limit walks, keep the ball on the ground and limit home runs in this capacity, there’s room for even greater improvement (as evidenced by his hearty 2.97 FIP).

Whether there’s another gear for Skubal or this is roughly his peak output, he’s solidified himself as at least a quality mid-rotation option for Hinch in the coming years. Though there was talk of the Tigers being willing to at least listen to offers on the lefty before the Aug. 2 trade deadline, the Tigers would’ve required an exorbitant haul to part with him given that he’s still under team control for another four seasons beyond the current campaign. Given the current uncertainty regarding his arm, it’s difficult to imagine those talks being revisited this winter, as the Tigers — who’ll be operating under a new general manager after firing Al Avila yesterday — would be selling low on the heels of a lengthy IL stay.

As for what the Tigers’ rotation will look like moving forward, it’s practically anyone’s guess. Skubal joins Casey Mize and Spencer Turnbull (Tommy John surgery in both cases) as key rotation pieces on the 60-day injured list. The Tigers are currently also without Michael Pineda, Beau Brieske and Rony Garcia (injured list) and lefty Eduardo Rodriguez (rehabbing following a lengthy stay on the restricted list while dealing with a reported marital issue). That’s left the Tigers with Norris, Matt Manning, Tyler Alexander, journeyman Drew Hutchison and rookie Garrett Hill as options for the time being. With little certainty among that quintet, there figures to be additional rotation tumult in the final weeks of the year.

Tigers To Select Daniel Norris

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Left-hander Daniel Norris is returning for a second big league stint with the Tigers, the team announced to reporters Thursday. Norris, who signed a minor league deal after being cut loose by the Cubs, will start tomorrow’s game for the Tigers. He’ll make at least two starts, tweets Evan Woodbery of MLive.com. The Tigers will need to make a corresponding 40-man roster move before tomorrow’s game.

Further opportunities beyond these two scheduled outings for Norris will be dependent on the lefty’s performance and the health of the other options on the roster. Chris McCosky of the Detroit News tweets that veteran Michael Pineda is headed out on a rehab assignment and could only need two starts himself, for instance, so there’s likely some correlation there.

Norris, 29, was one of three lefties the Tigers acquired in the 2015 trade that sent David Price to the Blue Jays. (Matthew Boyd and Jairo Labourt also went to Detroit in that swap.) He spent the 2015-21 seasons with the Tigers organization, working as both a starter and reliever while batting a lengthy run of health issues — most notably a frightening bout with thyroid cancer which he thankfully overcame.

The Tigers flipped a then-struggling Norris to the Brewers for minor league righty Reese Olson last summer on July 30, and his results didn’t improve following the swap. He became a free agent after the season and inked a one-year, $1.75MM deal with the Cubs that didn’t pan out as hoped; in 30 innings with Chicago, Norris logged an unsightly 6.90 ERA with a career-best 32.1% strikeout rate but also career-worst marks in walk rate (15.7%) and home run rate (2.10 HR/9).

Since returning to the Tigers organization, Norris has made three starts in Triple-A and allowed a total of two runs on five hits and two walks with five strikeouts. He spent the season in the Cubs’ bullpen and thus wasn’t stretched out much at the time he re-upped with the Tigers, but he did toss four shutout innings with one hit, no walks and three strikeouts in his most recent outing (against the Cubs’ Triple-A affiliate, coincidentally enough).

This could prove to be a short stint on the roster for Norris. However, with each of Pineda, Tarik Skubal, Casey Mize, Beau Brieske, Rony Garcia and Spencer Turnbull all on the injured list — plus Eduardo Rodriguez still working his way back from the restricted list — there’s enough uncertainty on the staff that Norris could earn himself a longer leash if he shows well in his first couple outings.

Tigers Sign Daniel Norris, Jacob Barnes To Minor League Deals

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The Tigers announced agreement with relievers Daniel Norris and Jacob Barnes on minor league contracts. Detroit also confirmed the signing of righty Chi Chi González to a non-roster deal, which was first reported over the weekend. Chris McCosky of the Detroit News reported (Twitter links) both of today’s signings before the club announcement.

Norris and Barnes have each previously been members of the organization. The former spent six seasons in Detroit. Acquired from the Blue Jays as the centerpiece of the David Price deadline deal in 2015, Norris spent his first few years in the rotation. His tenure was up-and-down, and the Tigers kicked him to the bullpen starting with the shortened 2020 campaign. The left-hander posted a 3.25 ERA through 27 2/3 frames as a multi-inning type that year. Norris struggled to keep runs off the board in the first half of the following season, but he had impressive enough strikeout and ground-ball numbers the Brewers acquired him for pitching prospect Reese Olson last summer.

That deal didn’t pan out for Milwaukee, as Norris’ ERA never bounced back. He qualified for free agency and signed a $1.75MM guarantee with the Cubs this spring. The 29-year-old tossed 30 innings for the North Siders but allowed nearly seven earned runs per nine. He struck out an excellent 32.1% of opponents, but a lofty 15.7% walk percentage and marked home run issues led Chicago to release him last week. The Tigers would only owe Norris the prorated portion of the $700K league minimum salary if he makes it back to the majors.

Barnes was a Tiger as recently as last month. The right-hander broke camp with Detroit and made 22 appearances, managing only a 6.10 ERA across 20 2/3 frames. Typically a high-strikeout arm, Barnes generated swinging strikes on a meager 7.7% of his offerings this season. The Tigers cut him loose last month. The 32-year-old signed a minor league deal with the Mariners, briefly reached the majors but didn’t make an appearance, and was then outrighted off Seattle’s roster. He elected free agency and now returns to his first organization of the season in hopes of getting back to the big leagues.

González has already suited up for two MLB teams this year. He began the season on a non-roster pact with the division-rival Twins, making a pair of starts. The Brewers claimed him off waivers and deployed him four times before outrighting him off the roster. The 30-year-old has a 6.87 ERA in 18 1/3 big league innings this season, although he posted a much more palatable 3.44 mark in Triple-A. Unlike Morris and Barnes, González can serve as rotation depth.

The additions to the pitching depth come at a time when the Tigers are widely expected to move multiple hurlers off the big league staff. As MLBTR’s Steve Adams recently explored, veteran relievers Andrew Chafin, Michael Fulmer and Joe Jiménez are among the league’s more obvious candidates to change teams before next Tuesday’s trade deadline.

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