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Tigers Hot Stove Talk

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Lynn Henning of the Detroit News runs down all of the big names rumored to be possibilities for the Tigers this winter and assesses the likelihood of each.  It’s a well-written article so be sure to read it.  Here are the players, ranked by the percent chance of playing for Detroit next year:

Kenny Rogers – 90%
Todd Jones – 80%
Geoff Jenkins – 75%
Edgar Renteria – 50%
Jack Wilson – 30%
Francisco Cordero – 5%
Alex Rodriguez – 3%
Mariano Rivera – 3%
Raul Ibanez – 0.5%
Torii Hunter – 0%
Andruw Jones – 0%

  • Henning believes Jenkins is quite likely to become a Tiger on a two-year deal.  He only costs money, as the Brewers won’t be offering him arbitration if they decline his option.  The Twins may be in the mix for him as well.
  • Henning notes that new Braves GM Frank Wren and current Tigers GM Dave Dombrowski have a connection and could easily work together on a Renteria trade.  Pitching would be the requirement.  Jeremy Bonderman seems like too much; Nate Robertson perhaps too little.
  • The Tigers badly want to bring Rogers back; that seems very likely.
  • Henning expects Jones back unless he receives an offer from the Braves, located somewhat near his home.  That’s not expected.

Cardinals Have Work To Do

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Joe Strauss has had several insightful articles lately about the future of the Cardinals.  Let’s discuss.

  • The Cardinals have $83.8MM committed to 12 players for 2008.  Even worse, they don’t know what they’re going to get out of Scott Rolen, Jim Edmonds, Chris Carpenter, Juan Encarnacion, and Mark Mulder. They are spending $45MM on those five and may get very little production.
  • Next year’s payroll may approach $115MM on the high end, but that doesn’t mean the Cards have $30MM to burn.  Their 0-3 guys will earn roughly $5MM in aggregate, and the arbitration-eligible group may run another $5MM even if a few are cut loose.  So I’m thinking more like $20MM to burn, and Walt Jocketty will have to stretch that money pretty far.
  • The Cardinals need a power hitter, two starters, and a shortstop.  Tony La Russa, if he returns, won’t be "going young."
  • Joel Pineiro could be one of the starters, but if the Cards view him as a cheap #5 they’re going to be disappointed.  He’ll get paid.
  • An earlier Strauss article has a couple of rumors of note.  We learned that the Cards were fairly close to signing Miguel Batista last winter and almost traded Anthony Reyes to the Phillies this summer.

Here’s what I see happening this winter.  The Cards will fill the rotation spots with one mid-level signing and one cheaper wild card type guy.  I could see a Carlos Silva being paired with a Matt Clement.  Randy Wolf could fill the wild card role if the Dodgers won’t have him back.

It might make sense to fill the shortstop hole and need for a power bat in one fell swoop.  On the surface it seems like Miguel Tejada would fit the bill and Edgar Renteria wouldn’t, though Renteria outslugged Tejada this year.  Regardless I expect the Cardinals to make an aggressive push for one of them (Larry Borowsky of Viva El Birdos got me thinking along these lines).

Carlos Guillen to Play 1B Next Season

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The Tigers anticipated this.  Carlos Guillen’s okay with it.  Despite signing Guillen in March to a 4 year deal for $48MM to begin next season, the shortstop is going to be moving across the diamond sooner than expected to play first base.  The move is designed to protect his knees from the physical stresses of SS.

Tim argued that 4/48 was a bargain as long as he remained the Tigers’ shortstop.  Unfortunately, it appears Manager Jim Leyland has had to talk him into moving to first, despite Guillen’s condition last week that the Tigers had to bring in a gold glove caliber replacement.  However, Guillen now believes it’ll be better for the team and the longevity of his career.

Who then will be playing short for the Tigers in 2008?  Omar Vizquel, David Eckstein, and Cesar Izturis are free agents that stick out.  The Detroit Free Press notes there "could be other shortstops available in trade."  Edgar Renteria seems to be a popular choice among MLBTR readers.  Or will the Tigers make another attempt at Jack Wilson from Pittsburgh?  Or would they stick with the in-house option of Ramon Santiago?  The apparent good news is there are many options.

This also confirms the obvious:  the Tigers have no plans to bring Sean Casey back.

 

Posted by: Nat Boyle

Let’s Make A Deal: Edgar Renteria

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I’ve been getting a lot of emails about Edgar Renteria.  Let’s take a look at the situation.

In my opinion, the Braves need to import one solid, dependable starting pitcher.  Free agency presents plenty of options – a few dependable, most not: Matt Clement, Bartolo Colon, Freddy Garcia, Randy Wolf, Jaret Wright, Jason Jennings, Koji Uehara, Carlos Silva, Livan Hernandez, Tom Glavine.

Same deal with trade options: Carl Pavano, Jose Contreras, Kei Igawa, Matt Morris, Jon Garland, Bronson Arroyo, Nate Robertson, maybe Joe Blanton.

Back to Renteria – can we find a match?  The White Sox, Tigers, and A’s might want to import a shortstop (though Renteria for Blanton wouldn’t fly with Oakland).  Indeed, the first two connections have already surfaced in print.  The Braves offered Renteria and a top pitching prospect to the White Sox for Garland and were denied.  And more recently, John Paul Morosi of the Detroit Free Press connected Renteria with the Tigers for multiple reasons.

I like a Robertson for Renteria swap.  The Braves get two below-market price years of Robertson, who could be quite solid in the NL and is only 30 years old.  Renteria meanwhile is signed cheaply for $9MM in ’08 with an $11MM club option ($3MM buyout) for ’09.  Better yet, the Red Sox are chipping in towards next year’s salary and would cover the buyout.  Everybody wins and even Carlos Guillen is happy. 

The Braves would then move Yunel Escobar to shortstop and play Kelly Johnson every day at second base.  That’s not much of a loss and Robertson would really solidify the staff if healthy.  You may recall Keith Law opining in July that Escobar did have the glove to play short and could be a respectable hitter.

The Blue Jays, Royals, A’s, Cubs, Astros, Cardinals, and Giants may also be in the market for a shortstop.  Shaun Marcum, Joe Blanton, Wandy Rodriguez, Anthony Reyes, Sean Marshall, and Noah Lowry could conceivably be available from those clubs.  Marcum’s a long shot and as I said above I don’t see Renteria for Blanton happening.

Anyone have any other reasonable trade scenarios for Renteria?

Rosenthal’s Latest Videos: Teixeira, Dye, Garland

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Ken Rosenthal has a couple of recent videos up at FOXSports.  Check ’em out.  Some highlights:

  • The Mark Teixeira talks are at a standstill; the Braves and Angels are reluctant to improve their offers.  The Dodgers are said to be out of the picture.  Daniels, Schuerholz, Stoneman – which one blinks first?  I’ll say Daniels; he’ll go with Atlanta’s best offer.
  • Jermaine Dye is Plan B for the Angels, but as you know the Red Sox still have interest.
  • Jon Garland can be had, but Kenny Williams’ price is sky-high.  The Diamondbacks, Dodgers, Mets, and Braves all have interest.  The Braves had offered not only Edgar Renteria but a top pitching prospect, and still were rejected.  Rosenthal expects Garland to stay put because as the asking price is not met.
  • The Dodgers are still the leaders on Octavio Dotel, but the Tribe could jump in if they part with Ben Francisco.  Would Francisco really be missed?
  • The Cubs are looking at role players like Jay Payton and Jeff Conine.  Many Cubs fans have written me looking for some good rumors – anything I would hear would go on the site.  My gut feeling is that they do nothing major.
  • The Orioles asked about Kei Igawa, but were told he’s not available.
  • Rosenthal can see Adam Dunn and Eric Gagne staying put at the deadline.  The need to deal Gagne is a bit more pressing, in my opinion.

Teixeira Talk Heating Up

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UPDATE: Jon Heyman of SI.com has a nice rundown of the Teixeira suitors.  His sources seem to indicate that the chances of a trade are now better than Rosenthal’s 50/50.  Good point raised by Heyman and many commenters – even if the Braves wanted to trade Escobar, the Rangers don’t really have a need for a middle infielder.

UPDATE 2: Jim Molony of MLB.com says the Red Sox are the frontrunner.  The Rangers have scouted all of their major pitching prospects.

Ken Rosenthal has the latest on Mark Teixeira, who is now 50/50 to be dealt according to one source of his.

Rosenthal describes the scene as the Braves and Angels at the forefront, with the Yankees, Red Sox, and Giants lingering.  Evan Grant adds the Dodgers to the mix.  He also suggests the Rangers package Joaquin Benoit with Teixeira to get the best possible player.  Interestingly, the Yanks might be after Adam Dunn as another first base option.  They may have to focus on Dunn, because Jon Daniels is demanding Joba Chamberlain for Teixeira.

The Braves were really trying to shake things up; they would’ve done the Jon Garland for Edgar Renteria deal in tandem with a Teixeira acquisition.  The Garland proposal has been rejected, but Teixeira is very much alive.  Rosenthal describes the Braves as unwilling to trade Yunel Escobar and reluctant to trade Jarrod Saltalamacchia.  In my opinion, Salty is the more valuable player.  To me, Escobar for Teixeira is the right move.

I recently talked to ESPN’s Keith Law about Escobar.  He told me the glove is there to play shortstop, but he worries about the bat.  Based on observation, Law could see Escobar developing into a .300 hitter with little power.

Garland For Renteria Discussed?

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Found via Buster Olney’s blog: Peter Gammons suggested that the White Sox and Braves have discussed a Jon Garland for Edgar Renteria swap.

Renteria, soon to turn 32, is hitting better this year than he ever has.  He’s quite a bargain for Atlanta, because the Red Sox are footing much of the bill.  Assuming Boston’s $8MM contribution was spread evenly for 2006-08, the Braves are paying Renteria about 6.66MM this year and the same in 2008.  Renteria also has an $11MM option for 2009 on which Boston would pay the $3MM buyout if necessary.  At present it seems very likely to be exercised though.  Yunel Escobar can handle shortstop defensively, so the Braves have an in-house replacement.  Kelly Johnson deserves to be playing every day.

Garland will turn 28 in September.  He’s making $10MM this year and $12MM in ’08.  He’d give the Braves some much-needed stability, and the team would have a formidable front four of John Smoltz, Tim Hudson, Chuck James, and Garland.  Despite a lack of strikeouts, Garland should be able to keep his ERA under 4 in the NL.  One concern is that Garland has a persistent knot in his throwing shoulder, though it doesn’t hurt and he thinks he will just pitch through it for the rest of his career.

If Kenny Williams can’t come up with a shortstop this summer, I could see him going after Omar Vizquel, who he tried to sign in the winter of 2004-05.

Rosenthal’s Latest: Lohse, Hunter, Contreras

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The latest trade and signing rumors from Ken Rosenthal:

  • Rosenthal believes Alex Rodriguez’s ability to play shortstop could increase the number of suitors.  Take a look at the free agents – there may not be a single viable option at short this winter.  Still, the number of suitors for Rodriguez is severely limited by his massive contract requirement.  Not too many clubs aside from the Yankees and Red Sox can get in on $240MM over eight years or whatever.  The lack of available, reasonably priced shortstops could compel the Braves and Orioles to aggressively shop Edgar Renteria and Miguel Tejada.
  • As a 29 year-old free agent starter with decent stuff, Scott Boras could sell Kyle Lohse as the next Gil Meche this winter.  Meche’s work in the season’s first three months would only aid the wishcasting.  I put up a little Lohse history here, writing that his deal will likely fall somewhere between Jason Marquis and Meche.  Other free agent starters who will be under 30 for the 2008 season: Carlos Zambrano, Jason Jennings, Joe Kennedy, and Byung-Hyun Kim.
  • Rosenthal believes the Rangers will bid on Torii Hunter this winter unless they acquire a proven center fielder this summer.  He mentions that Jon Daniels set his sights on Shane Victorino but the Phils would rather trade Michael Bourn.  Unless the Rangers get a proven guy they will still go after Hunter.
  • The Mariners scouted Jose Contreras and Matt Morris recently, but both were lousy.  I still think Jennings could sneak in there as the best available starter, but he too hasn’t pitched well in July.  Definitely seems like the Mariners will snag some kind of starter.
  • Rosenthal disputes Evan Grant’s report of the Brewers and Indians showing interest in Kenny Lofton.  The Brewers are getting Bill Hall back soon and the Indians have some outfielders on the road to recovery as well.  Perfect, this frees him up for the Cubs!
  • Rosenthal mentions the same teams I did for Kevin Millar, but sees an August deal as a possibility.  Waiting until August doesn’t seem to make sense for the Orioles, as things get trickier then.
  • The Padres could trade Scott Linebrink in order to make payroll room for a starter.  Or they could just sign Brian Lawrence.  I discussed some other options for the Friars here.

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