Phillies Exploring Oswalt, Werth Trades
The Phillies are exploring acquiring Roy Oswalt and moving Jayson Werth in a companion trade, reports ESPN's Jayson Stark. GM Ruben Amaro Jr. says nothing is close, but Ed Price of AOL FanHouse says the Oswalt talks are "heavy." Oswalt has yet to be presented with a deal for his approval. Stark says the Phils have also discussed Dan Haren, Jeremy Guthrie, and Ben Sheets as they leave no rock unturned. As for Werth, Stark believes the Rays "head the list of interested teams." The impending free agent would be moved to save money, stock the farm system, and open up a spot for Domonic Brown. Stark says the Red Sox, Giants, and Padres are also interested in Werth.
The Phillies recently optioned Kyle Kendrick to the minors and lost Jamie Moyer to an elbow strain, so they could use starting pitching depth. GM Ruben Amaro Jr. hinted today that the club could acquire a starter by Saturday. The Phils have already committed $135MM to next year's payroll, so adding an expensive arm like Haren or Oswalt would take some maneuvering.
One candidate to start Saturday, or perhaps be traded, is J.A. Happ. Stark says the Phillies have shopped the lefty, and the Astros scouted him on Tuesday.
Click here to predict the Phillies next move.
Rosenthal On Yankees, Hart, Haren, Werth
Ken Rosenthal of FOX Sports has a new installment of Full Count up. Let's dive in and see what he has for us..
- The Yankees are talking to the Marlins and the two teams could match up in a few different ways. Cody Ross, a right-handed hitting outfielder, would be a perfect fit for the Pinstripes. Trouble is, Ross is a regular for Florida and the Yanks may not want to pay that price for a player they'd only use part-time. Leo Nunez would also make sense for the Yankees in a set-up role but they'll want a lot for him as well. The closer is under team control for two seasons after this one.
- The Braves like Ross as well but their opinions on Corey Hart are mixed. Some Atlanta officials are rather fond of Hart, but others see him as a slightly better version of Jeff Francoeur. If Matt Diaz hits well and Nate McLouth comes back strong, they may not even need the Brewers outfielder. If their guy ultimately is Hart though, it'll be at their price.
- Two of the top starters on the trading block hold no-trade clauses, though they may not be much of a factor. Ted Lilly can reject trades to ten teams, though the only contenders on his list are the Twins and Phillies, who may not even be interested in him. Arizona's Dan Haren can reject deals to twelve clubs, including the Reds. However, a source says that his list is not a factor as he has not been pitching well.
- The Phillies, at the moment, are not playing well enough to make a run at Roy Oswalt. However, they don't expect to fall far enough out of contention to sell. Jayson Werth, Rosenthal says, could be moved in order to improve the team in the short-term and long-term. A Werth-for-Javier Vazquez swap could make sense if the Yankees could acquire another starting pitcher. Cliff Lee, in theory, would have been that guy.
Olney’s Latest: Lee, Mets, Ibanez, Fukudome, DeJesus
In today's blog post at ESPN (Insider req'd), Buster Olney names the winners and losers in yesterday's Cliff Lee deal. Beyond the obvious, he says the Red Sox and Rays win because Lee stays away from the team they're chasing in the AL East while the Athletics and Angels lose because he's going to the team they're chasing in the AL West. Olney also dubs the Phillies losers because yesterday's trade again showed that they didn't receive as much as they could have for Lee when they traded him last winter.
Here are the rest of Buster's rumors…
- People within the Mets' front office are working under the assumption that they will not be able to expand payroll. Earlier this week we heard that the team liked the idea of acquiring Ted Lilly and taking on the now $5.55MM left on his deal as a way to move fewer prospects.
- The Phillies would prefer to move Raul Ibanez and the $17MM left on his deal to make room for top prospect Domonic Brown, but I can't imagine anyone will bite. Impending free agent Jayson Werth might go instead.
- Kosuke Fukudome's stock is falling, but the Cubs are still keeping the eye on the market for his services.
- The Royals are telling teams that they are going to hang on to David DeJesus until the trade deadline before deciding whether or not to move the outfielder.
Jayson Werth Rumors: Friday
The Yankees, Red Sox and Rays have told the Phillies that they would have interest in Jayson Werth if he is available, according to George A. King III of the New York Post. We heard yesterday that the Phillies, who would like to add a proven starter, are discussing possible Werth trades with ‘a lot of teams.’
Werth, 31, will hit free agency after the season and is projected to be a Type A free agent. That ranking likely boosts his value in the long-term. For now, Werth boasts a .278/.365/.514 line and plays solid defense in right field. Check back throughout the day for the latest rumors on Werth:
- The Red Sox have shown interest in Werth, but no deal is imminent, according to Rob Bradford of WEEI.com.
- An official of one team the Phillies discussed Werth with told ESPN.com's Jayson Stark that he would be very surprised to see the Phils trade him. Stark reports that the Phillies appear to have evaluated the market for Werth, Ibanez and Shane Victorino. The Phillies would have interest in Vazquez if the Yankees make him available.
- There’s no reason to believe that the Phillies will trade Werth to the Yankees for Javier Vazquez, according to MLB.com’s Todd Zolecki. The Phillies would want major league-ready players who are under team control after 2010 if they deal Werth, Zolecki confirms.
- The Phillies would part with Werth in the right deal, but aren't sure how they would do without a comparable right-handed bat, according to Jim Salisbury of CSNPhilly.com (via Twitter).
- The Phillies would prefer to move Raul Ibanez than Werth, according to ESPN.com's Buster Olney (via Twitter). The chances of that happening seem slim.
- Ken Rosenthal of FOX Sports says the Phillies would be looking to obtain players who can contribute instantly and who are under team control after 2010 (Twitter link).
- Rosenthal puts the odds of a Javier Vazquez-Werth swap at 50-1 and says the Rays are not likely to acquire the Phillies' outfielder (Twitter link).
Phillies Discussing Werth Trades
As they search for a proven starter, the Phillies are discussing Jayson Werth trades with “a lot of teams,” according to ESPN.com’s Buster Olney (Twitter links). Ken Rosenthal of FOX Sports reported yesterday that the Phillies would likely consider trading Werth if they fall from contention. The Phils are 43-40, three games out of a playoff spot, but it appears that they are open to trading Werth now.
Werth, 31, is about to hit free agency and his projected Type A ranking likely boosts his trade value. Werth's team will probably be able to obtain two top picks in next year's draft by offering arbitration. But Werth would have a big impact before next season. He is hitting .279/.365/.518 with 13 homers and plays solid defense in right field.
The Giants, Padres, Red Sox and Rays are among the teams that could be discussing a deal with the Phillies, though that is speculation on my part.
What The Elias Rankings Mean For Trade Candidates
Many of this year's trade candidates share a distinguishing characteristic: they are about to become free agents. After the season, their teams will decide whether to offer arbitration and have a chance at top picks in next year's draft. A player's ranking can contribute to or detract from his trade value, so let's take a look at some of this year's trade candidates and see where they place under our reverse-engineered Elias rankings.
We'll start with some trade candidates who project as Type A free agents. If these players decline arbitration offers to sign elsewhere, their former teams will receive two top picks in the 2011 draft. These players are sometimes more inclined to accept arbitration, since their Type A status can intimidate would-be suitors who don't want to surrender a pick (just ask Juan Cruz and Orlando Hudson).
It's important to note that teams don't necessarily give first rounders up to sign the players below. The first 15 picks are protected and sometimes teams sign more than one Type A player. Say the Red Sox sign Adam Dunn (75.8 ranking) and Scott Downs (74.6 ranking) and both were offered arb. The Nationals would get Boston's top pick and the Blue Jays would get their second-best pick because Dunn ranks higher than Downs. In that instance, Downs only costs the Red Sox a second rounder.
Once a team signs one Type A free agent, the cost of signing a second and a third drops, since the club is giving up lesser picks. Rafael Soriano (88.9), Vladimir Guerrero (88.6), Carl Crawford (85.5), Javier Vazquez (79.0) and Adrian Beltre (78.9) could all get arbitration offers this winter, so Type As, especially lower-ranked players, don't always cost a first rounder. With that in mind, here are some trade candidates who currently have Type A status:
- Cliff Lee (91.8) – He is getting an arbitration offer and turning it down. Lee's Type A status boosts his trade value.
- Jayson Werth (86.0) – Same goes for Werth.
- David DeJesus (78.3)- Matt Klaassen of FanGraphs argued yesterday that the Royals shouldn't offer arbitration, since DeJesus would accept. It's entirely possible that the Royals can get more value for DeJesus in a trade, but I don't think DeJesus would necessarily accept arbitration. He will easily be a top-five outfielder if his team lets him hit free agency instead of picking up his $6MM option. And if he accepts? The team has an above-average outfielder on an affordable one-year deal.
- Adam Dunn (75.8) – He will get an arbitration offer and will probably turn it down. Dunn's Type A status boosts his trade value.
- Scott Downs (74.6) – Earlier this week, I suggested the Blue Jays could offer Downs arbitration and either collect the picks or pay him $5MM or so in 2011. There's a good chance that Downs accepts an offer of arbitration, but the chance at two top picks probably makes that a risk worth taking.
- Miguel Tejada (74.4) – It's hard to imagine teams forfeiting picks to sign Tejada. It seems unlikely that a team would offer arbitration. Tejada's Type A status doesn't affect his trade value (and he is only a couple points away from becoming a Type B).
- Ted Lilly (74.3) – Lilly will be a top free agent starter after the season, so the Cubs will likely offer arbitration. Lilly's Type A status boosts his trade value.
And here are some players who currently project as Type B free agents. These players will bring their former teams a supplementary round pick if they decline arbitration to sign elsewhere. But teams don't have to give up their picks to sign Type Bs, which makes these players appealing as free agents.
- John Buck – J. P. Arencibia is Toronto's catcher of the future, but it's easy to imagine the Blue Jays (or another team) offering Buck arbitration after the season. It worked last year, when the Jays got a supplemental rounder for losing Rod Barajas. Buck wouldn't make much through arbitration, so his Type B status boosts his trade value.
- Jose Guillen – It's extremely hard to imagine the Royals offering arbitration. His Type B status does not affect his trade value.
- Mike Lowell – Same goes for Lowell.
- Kevin Millwood – And for Millwood.
- Jason Frasor – Frasor makes only $2.65MM this year, so he wouldn't be making an overwhelming amount even if he accepted arbitration. Obtaining a pick for Frasor would be a plus, so his Type B status helps his trade value.
- Derrek Lee – Given Lee's struggles and salary, it's hard to imagine his team offering arbitration.
- Cristian Guzman – Guzman makes $8MM this year and though players aren't guaranteed raises via this kind of arbitration, Guzman isn't even worth his current salary on the open market. An arbitration offer seems unlikely, so his status doesn't affect his trade value.
- Octavio Dotel – Like Frasor, Dotel could see an offer of arbitration, depending on how he finishes the season, so his Type B status helps his trade value. The Pirates have a $4MM option for Dotel that becomes mutual if he is traded.
- Aaron Heilman – It seems unlikely that the D'Backs would feel comfortable offering Heilman arbitration, given his inconsistent performance in 2010, so his status doesn't help his trade value.
Phils Remain Buyers; Could Sell
If the Phillies fall from contention, they could sell, GM Ruben Amaro Jr. acknowledged to Ken Rosenthal and Jon Paul Morosi of FOX Sports. The 43-38 Phillies are in the race now, but a lot depends on how the team plays over the course of the coming weeks.
“I could be buying and selling,” Amaro told FOX Sports, without naming specific players.
If the Phillies are buyers, they could add Ty Wigginton, Miguel Tejada or one of the other infielders they have expressed interest in. Rival teams are demanding substantial returns for their infielders, since Chase Utley and Placido Polanco are on the DL, so the Phils are in a vulnerable position. Amaro could also pursue a pitcher like Cliff Lee or Pedro Martinez, two major pieces of last year’s NL Championship team.
Sources tell FOX Sports that the Phillies would likely consider trading Jayson Werth if they fall from contention. The right fielder hits free agency after the season and would instantly become one of the top hitters available. For now the Phillies are buyers, but that won’t necessarily be the case at the deadline.
Krasovic On Washburn, Werth, Phillies
In his latest piece for AOL Fanhouse, Tom Krasovic discusses Carlos Gonzalez's ascension, Matt Kemp's benching, and Madison Bumgarner's potential, among other topics. Here are his hot stove notes:
- Agent Scott Boras says it's "up in the air" whether or not Jarrod Washburn still wants to pitch this season, adding that a pennant race could be appealing to the left-hander. I'm a little skeptical about Washburn's ability to contribute much to a contending team this season, given how long he's been away from the game.
- A major league executive tells Krasovic that the Phillies are "evaluating the trade market" for Jayson Werth. With Werth in the final year of his contract, and top prospect Domonic Brown waiting in the wings, it makes sense for the Phils to explore their options. As Krasvoic points out though, Philadelphia's lineup suffered a hit with injuries to Chase Utley and Placido Polanco, making a Werth trade especially unlikely.
- The Phillies may find it hard to make an impact move this month, since they'll want to hang on to Brown and their farm system doesn't have the depth it did last year at this time.
Odds & Ends: Lee, Orioles, Cubs, Oswalt, Chipper
Links for Wednesday, before Pedro Alvarez makes his MLB debut…
- Jack Curry of the YES Network (via Twitter) hears from a baseball official that the Phillies are interested in adding a starting pitcher. Curry specifically names Cliff Lee, though I can't imagine the team re-acquiring him just a few months after shipping him to Seattle.
- The Orioles have contacted Buck Showalter about managing the team, according to Tim Kurkjian of ESPN.com.
- The Cubs hired a statistical analyst for the team's baseball operations department, according to ESPN.com's Bruce Levine.
- Jon Heyman of SI.com hears that it's an "extreme long shot" that the Rangers acquire Roy Oswalt.
- One GM told ESPN.com's Buster Olney that teams are now demanding big returns for players who will eventually be traded for less.
- DJ Bean of WEEI.com introduces us to Red Sox fourth rounder Garin Cecchini, who told every major league team he wouldn't sign for less than mid-first-round money. Specifically, Cecchini wants $1.75MM, according to Bean.
- White Sox GM Kenny Williams told Mark Gonzales of the Chicago Tribune that he hasn't given up on his team and wants to see how it fares over the course of the coming week.
- Chipper Jones' agent, B.B. Abbott, told Jon Paul Morosi of FOX Sports that Chipper will "absolutely not" retire during the season.
- The Yankees released David Winfree from their Triple A team, according to Donnie Collins of the Times-Tribune.
- Joel Sherman of the New York Post points out that the Yankees won't have to pursue free agents Carl Crawford and Jayson Werth if Brett Gardner, Nick Swisher and Curtis Granderson keep playing this well.
Odds & Ends: Brewers, Orioles, Werth, Weathers
Some links after an astounding debut from Stephen Strasburg…
- Brewers owner Mark Attanasio tells MLB.com's Adam McCalvy that the Brewers could hypothetically add payroll if the team starts contending soon.
- Jayson Werth had a team spokesman tell Todd Zolecki and Zach Schonbrun of MLB.com that his impending free agency isn't distracting him at the plate.
- Phillies manager Charlie Manuel thinks Werth is putting extra pressure on himself to play well in his contract year, according to Matt Gelb of the Philadelphia Inquirer (via Twitter).
- The Orioles will interview Bobby Valentine for their managerial opening, according to Dan Connolly of the Baltimore Sun. Andy MacPhail called former Indians manager Eric Wedge to gauge his interest in the position.
- David Weathers told John Fay of the Cincinnati Enquirer that he would be willing to come back and pitch for the Reds. The 40-year-old righty pitched 62.0 innings of 3.92 ERA ball for the Reds and Brewers last year.
- MLB has accepted the Mets' decision to place Oliver Perez on the DL, reports Adam Rubin of ESPNNewYork.com.