Discussion: Battle Of The Upside Starters
With the signing of Jason Marquis, the free agent starting pitchers left on the board are all awfully similar in terms of likely value. If you like Doug Davis over Jon Garland, or Joel Pineiro over Davis, you're still not likely to get a frontline starting pitcher, and it is likely to cost a team roughly what Marquis cost the Nationals.
The two remaining starters with the chance to be much better than average- but carrying significant risk- are Ben Sheets and Pedro Martinez. With Martinez, we have a better sense of what he is looking for, contract-wise, thanks to ESPN.com's Jayson Stark reporting earlier today that he wants "more than Brad Penny got"- more than $7.5MM base salary, in other words. That's still in line with Marquis and company, however.
As for Sheets, he's reportedly seeking $12MM next year. So the question becomes, is Sheets likely to be more than a third better than Martinez?
The major advantages for Sheets: he's posted an ERA of 3.39 since 2007, while Martinez is actually below average during that time, at 4.66. Sheets has also made at least 30 starts as recently as 2008; Martinez last accomplished the feat in 2005.
But Martinez may be a better bet than that would suggest. For one thing, Sheets didn't pitch at all last season, while Martinez was quite effective- a 3.63 ERA in the regular season, 3.70 ERA in the playoffs. Martinez has also had a better strikeout rate than Sheets since 2007, which is a strong indicator of future performance.
If the price tag is significantly lower for Martinez- and as of right now, it appears to be- he might be the more valuable upside candidate of the two.
And if risk isn't your game, there's always Jon Garland.
Yankees Aiming To Add Starter Soon
Yankees GM Brian Cashman will "almost certainly add a starter by New Year's," reports Mike Puma of the New York Post. Puma notes that the Yanks inquired on the Cubs' Carlos Zambrano, but did not like the asking price. Zambrano has a full no-trade clause and is well-paid – $53.75MM over the next three years. On the other hand, ESPN's Bruce Levine has a Cubs source that refuted the idea that the Yankees even inquired.
A few other names to consider from our trade market post: Derek Lowe, Aaron Harang, and Gil Meche (we're unsure on the availability of Meche). Another interesting name could be Jeremy Bonderman, given his $12.5MM salary for 2010. Note that the Yankees have not been connected to these four in trade rumors; we're just speculating. And there is the small question of whether the team has $10MM+ in payroll space for a veteran starter.
Puma finds a free agent addition more likely for the Yankees; his speculative targets are Jason Marquis, Joel Pineiro, and Ben Sheets. However, Ken Davidoff of Newsday talked to "a person in the Yankees' loop" who said Sheets is "not even on the board" currently. Pineiro's contract demands remain steep, and you have to wonder whether a low-strikeout National League lifer like Marquis offers anything over Sergio Mitre or Chad Gaudin. The rest of the free agent market is not terribly appealing.
Bottom line: Puma expects Cashman to add a starter in the next eleven days, but we have no idea who that will be.
Mets Notes: Bay, Marquis, Pineiro
A few newsbits surrounding the Flushing Meadows nine….
- Ken Rosenthal of Fox Sports says the the Mets "are trying to be careful not to bid against themselves" for Jason Bay since they may be the only club with serious interest at this point. Rosenthal notes that the Red Sox are no longer a factor given the Mike Cameron signing, the Angels and Giants have "consistently downplayed their interest" in the free agent outfielder and the Mariners were never a major player in the Bay sweepstakes. We learned earlier today about the Mets' current offer to Bay.
- Rosenthal and his cohort Jon Paul Morosi also note that the Mets have interest in Jason Marquis and Joel Pineiro, but may face some competition from division rivals Washington. Rosenthal and Morosi say the Nationals want to add two pitchers, with at least one being a No. 2 starter, and the Nats are also looking at Jon Garland.
- Newsday's Ken Davidoff said that (of all things) Bay's long-ago stint in center field with Pittsburgh is the reason that New York rates him as a better defender than Matt Holliday.
- While answering e-mails from Mets fans disappointed by their team's lack of big free agent moves, MLB.com's Marty Noble points out that no number of free agents would make the Mets contenders in 2010 unless their large number of injured stars are healthy. Noble also "wouldn't count on a reunion" between the Mets and Joe Torre in spite of the fact that Torre's contract is up in Los Angeles after next year and Jerry Manuel might be on the hot seat.
Odds & Ends: Mets, Royals, Dodgers, Lowe
More links for Tuesday…
- Joe McDonald of the Providence Journal writes about the efforts of some players to find work during the off-season. Joe Nelson, who made $1.3MM with the Rays last season was at the winter meetings and said he is "just trying to put food on the table.”
- Nick Piecoro of the Arizona Republic is now on Twitter and reports that the Diamondbacks looked into bringing back Jose Valverde but his price was not within their budget.
- Mets GM Omar Minaya tells Newsday's David Lennon that he had hoped to sign John Lackey.
- Minaya tells Bart Hubbuch of the New York Post that he has interest in bringing Carlos Delgado back.
- Minaya tells Hubbuch that the Mets asked about Roy Halladay before the Blue Jays moved on to other options.
- The Royals accepted cash from the Red Sox to complete the Tug Hulett deal, according to Bob Dutton of the Kansas City Star.
- ESPN.com's Buster Olney says the Dodgers are expected to target pitchers with the money they freed up in the Juan Pierre deal. Could they target Joel Pineiro? They saved $8MM in the trade and that may not be enough for a single year of Pineiro's services. I'd be surprised to see the Dodgers sign him.
- The Mariners hope to bring the recently-non-tendered Ryan Langerhans back, according to Ryan Divish of the Tacoma News Tribune.
- Jon Paul Morosi of FOX Sports says the Braves aren't necessarily looking for a right-handed bat in exchange for Derek Lowe. They'd accept prospects, too.
Joel Pineiro Seeks Four-Year Deal
ESPN.com's Buster Olney hears from club executives that Joel Pineiro is looking for a four-year deal. The Angels and Cubs could look to sign the righty, who wants a higher annual salary than Randy Wolf, according to Jayson Stark. Wolf will make just shy of $10MM for each of the three guaranteed years on his deal with the Brewers.
The Mets, Dodgers, Yankees and Nationals are all looking for starters. We shouldn't rule out a return to Seattle either, though that's speculation for now. The Cardinals will obtain a supplementary rounder in next year's draft if and when Pineiro signs elsewhere.
Multiple Teams Eyeing Joel Pineiro
Yahoo's Tim Brown tweets of six early suitors for free agent righty Joel Pineiro, who is perhaps now the best free agent starter available aside from John Lackey. Brown names the Yankees, Mets, Nationals, Cubs, Orioles, and Angels as interested teams. ESPN's Jayson Stark says Pineiro wants more than $10MM a year.
Pineiro had a fine 2009 season, using a sinker to get tons of groundballs and walking very few. But while he's a couple years younger than Randy Wolf, I can't see Pineiro getting a four-year deal. I think he'll be hard-pressed to get three. And regarding the Cubs' interest, I'd be surprised if they found the cash. The Yankees also seem unlikely.
Mets Focused On Five Starting Pitchers
The New York Mets have targeted five free agent starting pitchers, according to the New York Post's Joel Sherman: John Lackey, Joel Pineiro, Jason Marquis, Jon Garland, and Doug Davis.
The Mets have yet to make any offers to free agent starters, but have met with Lackey's representation and are having an internal debate on whether to "go all-in" for the right-hander. With the club feeling that they're unlikely to invest heavily in a catcher or left fielder, some of the team's brass think they should spend their money on the best pitcher available, rather than saving it for other positions.
Of the five pitchers Sherman mentions, the Mets are only willing to offer more than three years to Lackey, and no more than two years to Marquis, Garland, and Davis.
Cardinals Rumors: Holliday, DeRosa, Tejada
The Cardinals' offseason plans hinge on Matt Holliday, according to the St. Louis Post-Dispatch's Joe Strauss and Derrick Goold. In their latest articles, each writer explains how the Cardinals' pursuit of Holliday will affect the rest of the team's offseason.
Goold notes that if the team fails to sign Holliday, it could free up some money to fill out the starting rotation. Conversely, if they are able to ink Holliday to a deal, their rotation solution will likely be an in-house player rather than a free agent. The team is set with Chris Carpenter, Adam Wainwright, Brad Penny, and Kyle Lohse as its top four, but will be searching for a fifth starter. Although the Cards are "out of the bidding" for Joel Pineiro, the team could pursue another mid-level starter if the Holliday money is available.
Meanwhile, Strauss writes that the more time the Cardinals spend going after Holliday, the greater chance there is that Mark DeRosa slips away. The Cardinals probably view DeRosa as a Plan B after Holliday, but with plenty of other teams interested, DeRosa may have signed elsewhere by the time Holliday makes a decision.
Strauss' article also mentions that Tony La Russa has interest in Miguel Tejada as a possible option for the left side of the infield.
Twitter Rumors: Mets, Granderson, Matsui
More links from Twitter. Be sure to follow MLBTR on Twitter for all your updates.
- Phils GM Ruben Amaro Jr. tells Andy Martino of the Philadelphia Inquirer that he is not interested in Aroldis Chapman.
- It doesn't look like the Reds will be spending big on a shortstop like Orlando Cabrera or Miguel Tejada, according to MLB.com's Mark Sheldon.
- The Nationals see John Smoltz as a starter, according to MLB.com's Bill Ladson. Ken Rosenthal says Smoltz could return to St. Louis.
- John Lackey, Joel Pineiro, Jason Marquis, Jon Garland and Doug Davis all have the Mets' attention, according to Joel Sherman of the New York Post.
- The D'Backs will look to add a position player and solidify their bullpen now, according to MLB.com's Steve Gilbert.
- The Red Sox discussed a Curtis Granderson trade with the Tigers, according to Amalie Benjamin of the Boston Globe. Apparently, the Tigers wanted Clay Buchholz and Jacoby Ellsbury (Michael Silverman reporting).
- The Dodgers were interested in Jackson, but didn't want to meet the Tigers' asking price, according to Dylan Hernandez of the LA Times.
- The Dodgers like Paul Maholm, according to Jon Paul Morosi of FOX Sports.
- La Velle E. Neal III of the Minneapolis Star-Tribune reports that the Twins and Robb Quinlan may be a fit for one another. The Rockies are interested, too.
- Yankees GM Brian Cashman told Marc Carig of the Star Ledger that he only has interest in Hideki Matsui as a DH.
- Bobby Seay, Dusty Ryan and Jeff Larish are all available in trades, according to Jon Paul Morosi of FOX Sports.
Rangers Discussing Millwood Trades
3:10pm: MLB.com's T.R. Sullivan believes the Orioles have cooled on Millwood. He says the Rangers were interested in Chris Tillman (which is crazy) while the O's offered David Hernandez and Brandon Erbe (Erbe alone seems fair).
9:00am: Jon Paul Morosi of FOX Sports says no deal is imminent and the Rangers are in serious talks with multiple teams about Millwood. As you know, the Rangers allowed Millwood to record "The $12 Million Out" last September, letting his $12MM option vest for 2010. Nick Piecoro of the Arizona Republic guesses that the D'Backs could be in the mix for Millwood if talks for Edwin Jackson fail, and Morosi agrees.
6:56am: The Baltimore Sun's Peter Schmuck reports that while it may have started as speculation, the rumors of Kevin Millwood going to Baltimore are starting to become more of a reality.
Schmuck reports that the Orioles are getting closer to acquiring Millwood for one of their second-tier pitching prospects. The Rangers are likely to eat some of Millwood's contract no matter what, I assume, but Schmuck writes that the number is dependent on which prospect the Orioles surrender.
Schmuck also adds that the Orioles have "at least a passing interest" in Joel Pineiro. Pineiro's agent Adam Katz tells MASN's Roch Kubatko that Baltimore's interest in Pineiro and Rich Harden has just been "preliminary tire-kicking," however.