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Johnny Damon

Sunday A-Rod Recap

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I hate to post about the same guy twice in a row, but there’s been a flurry of Alex Rodriguez speculation on this fine October Sunday.  To break it down, here’s a brief recap:

  • The New York Post reports the Yankees are expected to make an offer to prevent A-Rod from free agency.  However, the offer will approach neither $300MM nor 12 years.  I think this is both expected and a smart move by the Yanks because…
  • Nick Cafardo likens Scott Boras’ approach toward marketing A-Rod’s "Iconic Value" to the exaggeratory strategy he took with Daisuke Matsuzaka.  And Johnny Damon, for that matter.
  • Bob Klapisch reports that in Torre’s wake, there will be much posturing from Jorge Posada, Mariano Rivera, and Alex Rodriguez who we can expect to wait as long as possible to make any decision(s).  And this is because…
  • The New York Daily News’ Mark Feinsand notes that "it is unlikely that the Yanks will have all of their issues resolved" before the tenth day following the World Series, when A-Rod will decide whether or not to opt out.  Mike Lupica meanwhile points out that the unrest in the Yankee system is a golden opportunity for A-Rod to indeed opt out with a plausible excuse.  Or as Scott Boras so eloquently put it to CNN.com, the "state of flux is a grand issue."  And further leverage for the player and his agent.

Posted by Nat Boyle

Rosenthal’s Latest: Damon, Glaus, Wells

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Ken Rosenthal has a new column up; here are some rumor-related points of interest.

  • As you know, it doesn’t make sense for the Yankees to keep both Bobby Abreu and Johnny Damon around for 2008.  It’s just not an efficent way to spend $29MM.  Rosenthal says Damon would be open to waiving his no-trade clause, if the Yankees struck a deal with a team that fell under his 12-team protection.  Damon is apparently open to regular playing time on teams not located on the West Coast.  The White Sox, Phillies, Braves, or Astros might make sense, in my opinion.  The Yanks’ ability to pull an exercise-and-trade with Abreu’s 2008 option is hindered by his full no-trade protection.
  • Rosenthal believes the Blue Jays might aggressively shop Troy Glaus this winter.  Glaus surprisingly cleared waivers recently.  Glaus is holding all the cards – he has a full no-trade clause and a player option for 2009.
  • The Rockies will pass on David Wells, but the Dodgers are still interested.  The Rox might still go for Steve Trachsel if they opt for experience over potential.
  • Craig Monroe seems to be an option for second-tier clubs, especially if he becomes a free agent.  The Giants will pass. 

Do Yanks Have Room For Damon And Giambi?

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I think Johnny Damon’s comments yesterday have been overblown – he backed off a few hours after he made them.  And when asked point blank if he wanted a trade, he said no.  He did hint that a trade might make sense if he couldn’t play regularly, but calmed down after talking to Joe Torre.

Still, the Yankees will face a roster crunch once Jason Giambi returns to the club to act as the regular DH.  Damon has lingering injuries that will keep him from starting in center field regularly.  Between Giambi and Damon, that’s $34MM in 2007 salary spent on the designated hitter.

It’s not just Damon who could be traded – either player is eligible.  Let’s start with Damon though.  His name first came up on July 26th, with the Braves slightly interested.  Damon’s contract pays him $13MM annually through 2009, so that’s an obstacle.  And he’s owed another $4.4MM this year.  His partial no-trade clause probably isn’t a big problem, because it sounds like he’d rather go elsewhere to play every day.  The Yankees would have to eat some salary to trade Damon, probably around $8-10MM.  Damon at $8MM annually through ’09 isn’t a bad risk.

The Angels were reportedly interested in Giambi back in May, though Bill Stoneman denied it.  If healthy, he’d still supply the Halos a needed dose of OBP and power.  The problem is that he’s still owed about $33MM from now through the 2008 season and has a full no-trade clause.  The Yankees could eat half of the money, but that wouldn’t address a concession for waiving the no-trade.  The other problem is that the Yankees and Angels could be battling for the wild card this year if the Mariners overtake the Halos.

Giambi would be harder than Damon to trade, and I imagine it’d be a pure salary dump.  Chone Figgins was mentioned in the Angels rumor in May, but that’s a stretch and the Yanks have since acquired Wilson Betemit.  Damon might net a better player in return with less salary relief.  Both players would probably pass through waivers unclaimed, and I imagine the Yankees will at least go that far this month.

Prospects could be acquired, though probably in the form of a player to be named later realized after the season.  Getting immediate help back seems unlikely.

Yankees Shopping Damon?

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Here’s a name we haven’t talked about yet: Johnny Damon.  I think he hasn’t come up much because his contract makes him nearly immovable.  He’ll make $13MM annually through 2009 and has a partial no-trade clause. 

Nonetheless, Dan Graziano of the Newark Star-Ledger reports that the Yankees have been calling around to see if anyone’s interested in Damon.  The Braves have a touch of interest, but obviously there are many obstacles.  I imagine the Yankees are stuck with Damon.  Hey, it seemed like a good idea at the time. 

Time To Trade Johnny Damon?

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Bob Klapisch raises a possibility I haven’t seen yet: should the Yankees start shopping center fielder Johnny Damon?

Damon is earning $13MM annually through 2009, and has a partial no-trade clause.  His age 33 season has been a disappointment so far; he’s hitting .259/.363/.364.  His flyball rate is down from 40% to 32%; that might have something to do with it. 

Damon was supposed to enter the 2007 season in good health, with a broken foot bone healed and his shoulder 100%.  However, he began the regular season with cramps in his calves.  That developed into a strain, and then hamstring and back problems surfaced in late April.  Jason Giambi’s injury will give the Yankees a chance to DH Damon, but it really seems like he needs to rest for two weeks on the DL.

Trading Damon would not be easy right now, and would qualify as selling low.  The Yankees would probably have to eat some of his salary.  I really can’t think of a club that would make sense though.  I’d suggest the White Sox, but they seem too thrilled with Darin Erstad.

 

Comparing Crisp And Damon

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Both Coco Crisp and Johnny Damon came at a very steep price.  The Red Sox mortgaged part of their future, while the Yankees simply coughed up $52MM for four years.  Tossing salaries and cost of acquisition aside, which team actually has the better player for 2006?

Let’s start by looking at Baseball Prospectus’s WARP statistic.  Wins Above Replacement Player is a measure of value that combines both offense and defense into a single number.

Damon was worth 5.5 wins in 2005, while Crisp tallied 5.6.  So the players had very near equal value.  Baseball Prospectus projects Crisp at 4.6 wins in 2006, whereas Damon projects at 5.7.  It will be interesting to see if those projections are changed before the ’06 season begins.

As leadoff hitters, who gets on base more often?  Damon has a career OBP of .353, but his last two seasons had rates of .380 and .366.  Crisp has a more pedestrian .332 career OBP, with marks of .344 and .345 in recent years.  It’s not a huge difference, but Damon has a clear advantage here.

Damon’s overall offense is superior, probably worth about one win more than Crisp.

How about defense?  Damon posted 14 FRAR (Fielding Runs Above Replacement) in 2005 and 22 the season before.  Crisp managed 15 FRAR in left field last season, and 11 as mostly a CF in 2004.  His playing time was limited, but it still looks like Damon may have a slight edge here.    Damon had a 2.93 range factor in 2005 to Crisp’s 2.23.  Crisp posted a 2.32 mark in 2004.  Fielding stats are imperfect, but it doesn’t hurt to consider what’s available.

One other factor to consider is that Damon is entering his age 32 season while Crisp is entering his age 26.  That’s an important six year difference.  Crisp’s most comparable player, Jim Piersall, posted a .293/.350/.449 line at age 26.  Damon’s closest comp is Kenny Lofton, who hit .301/.405/.432 at age 32 but managed just 465 ABs.  Obviously these are just comparisons, but Lofton basically became a part-time player due to injuries and declining skills at age 35.  After hitting .322 at age 31, Piersall didn’t contribute much in any season.

It’s close, but I’d rather have Damon if I was trying to win it all in 2006.  Certainly Boston’s decision is defensible considering Damon’s contract and age.

Yanks Sign Damon

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The Yankees snagged center fielder Johnny Damon for four years, $52MM, making the winter splash we’ve come to expect from them.  I had Damon as the 12th best free agent on the market, but I guessed wrong that he’d re-sign with Boston.  I will give myself a minor pat on the back for coming within $2MM of his contract, however.

Back in mid-October, I explained why I thought Damon at four years was going to be a bad signing.  His defense is slipping big-time, and his bat isn’t far behind.  In 2008 and 2009, the Yankees might have another Bernie Williams-type liability on their hands.

That said, it’s the Yankees.  If they want to treat Year 4 and maybe Year 3 of this deal as sunk costs, they can do that.  He’s still the best option for 2006 (given that they already tried Kenny Lofton) and this type of thing is expected from the Yankees.

One last thing – it’s really cool to see an article of mine up on Fox Sports.  Thanks to all those who read what I write and have given me opportunities.   

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