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Jonathan Papelbon

Odds & Ends: Papelbon, Yankees, Pujols, Webb

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Links for Monday, as Roy Halladay attempts to lead the Phillies to another division title…

Red Sox Rumors: Ortiz, Papelbon

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Imagine the Red Sox without David Ortiz and Jonathan Papelbon. Heading into the 2010-11 offseason, it's hard to do, but not utterly impossible. As you'll see below, it now looks like both will be back in Boston next year…

  • David Ortiz told Mike Petraglia of WEEI.com that he'd like to retire in Boston, but he realizes it's out of his control. "Sometimes, I feel like I'm part of the family and I'm going to stick around longer but I'm not the one who takes that decision," Ortiz said. The Red Sox can bring Big Papi back for $12.5MM next year, though he has expressed interest in a long-term deal.
  • Red Sox GM Theo Epstein told John Tomase of the Boston Herald that he'd like to bring back Daniel Bard and Jonathan Papelbon in 2011. “Having two really good pitchers is better than one,” he said. “Sometimes you don’t want to overcomplicate things.” Both pitchers are under team control, but Papelbon has struggled this year and will make an eight-figure salary in 2011, so he's a trade candidate.

Odds & Ends: Glaus, Orioles, Figgins, Papelbon

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Links for Sunday, as Jeremy Hellickson aims for his third win in his third career start….

Poll: Jonathan Papelbon’s Future

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Although the Red Sox's season has been sabotaged by injuries, closer Jonathan Papelbon has drawn the ire of fans dating back to his blown save in Game Three of the ALDS last season. His blown save on Thursday was already his sixth this season, a career high, and both his strikeout (8.2 K/9) and walk (3.6 BB/9) rates are the worst of his career. 

With a $9.35MM salary this season, Papelbon will easily command eight-figures next year, his final season of arbitration eligibility before becoming a free agent. With Daniel Bard proving himself a viable late inning arm, the Sox have a replacement already in-house should they choose to part ways with their closer. That said, Papelbon is still one of the game's best relievers and will be very difficult to replace.

What should the Red Sox do with Jonathan Papelbon after the season?

Click here to take the poll, and here to view the results. 

Gammons On Papelbon, Ramirez, Overbay

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The venerable Peter Gammons appeared on WEEI's The Big Show to discuss a few Red Sox-related hot stove topics.  WEEI.com's Sam Dykstra has the transcript of some of the interview's highlights…

  • The Red Sox will have a hard time finding takers for Jonathan Papelbon this winter if the club decides to install Daniel Bard as its full-time closer.  Gammons predicts Papelbon will get around $12MM for his final year of arbitration, and doubts that Boston would be able to move Papelbon's entire salary plus get a quality return in a trade.
  • Manny Ramirez in Tampa Bay is Boston's "worst nightmare," according to Gammons.  He says that should Ramirez return from the disabled list and be placed on waivers by Los Angeles, Boston would then be faced with the difficult decision of whether or not to risk putting in a claim on their former slugger just to keep him from ending up as a Ray.  The Red Sox could end up being stuck with the approximately $5.5MM remaining on Ramirez's $20MM salary, not to mention the added baggage that Ramirez could bring back to the Boston clubhouse.  Then again, as Gammons describes it, "it may be that Manny doesn’t realize that he has to play and perform to get another contract. We have no indication that he’s understood that after three trips to the disabled list this year."
  • Lyle Overbay is cited as a backup option at first base if the newly-acquired Carlos Delgado can't find his stroke in the minors.  Overbay has cleared waivers and is free to be dealt to any team, though the Toronto first baseman does have a no-trade clause in his contract.

American League Team Claims Papelbon

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An unknown American League team claimed Jonathan Papelbon, according to Ken Rosenthal of FOX Sports. The Red Sox could trade Papelbon to the claiming club, but are unlikely to do so. Instead, they’ll likely pull their closer back from waivers and hold onto him.

Papelbon makes $9.35MM this season and will head to arbitration this winter. He will earn more than $10MM in next year and will hit free agency after 2011. Even though Papelbon appears headed for an eight-figure salary in 2010, the Red Sox don't necessarily have any interest in trading the four-time All-Star.

Teams often put players on waivers to determine interest even if they have no intention of making a deal. Papelbon has a 2.98 ERA with a career-low 7.7 K/9 and 3.0 BB/9. His 25 saves put him on track for a fifth consecutive 35-save campaign.

American League teams have the chance to claim AL players before NL teams. The Orioles have the league's worst record, so they currently have the top waiver claim. The Rays have the league's best record, so they pick last before National League teams get their chance. Click here for more on trading in August.

Cafardo’s Latest: Red Sox, Brewers, Mariners, Oswalt

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In today's notes column, Nick Cafardo of The Boston Globe wonders if the Red Sox would move closer Jonathan Papelbon after the season to open up the closer's role for Daniel Bard. He speculates that the Brewers, Twins, Rays, Braves, and Phillies could be in the market for a closer this winter. Papelbon is scheduled to become a free agent after the 2011 season. 

Let's round up the rest of Cafardo's rumors…

  • Scott Boras said he undervalued Stephen Strasburg last year, even though he eventually signed the largest contract in draft history. Boras added that being around San Diego State coach Tony Gwynn helped Strasburg become prepared for what lied ahead.
  • Cafardo says that New England isn't a high priority area for scouts before the draft because by time they can get out to see the players in the region, it's too late in the game for a cross-checker to confirm anything.
  • Cafardo predicts that Jacoby Ellsbury will be traded this offseason. He'll arbitration eligible for the first time after 2010, though he's been battling rib issues basically all season.
  • He also remarks that the Red Sox would have to play Mike Lowell if they want to showcase him for a trade. Lowell has received just 50 plate appearances since the end of April.
  • Kevin Millwood should become major trade bait as the deadline approaches because he's pitched well and is in the final year of his contract.
  • The Brewers would love to make Randy Wolf available, but no one would take him on with more than two years and $24MM left on his deal. Meanwhile, Milwaukee still isn't sure if they'll try to improve their catching situation or become sellers and look towards next season.
  • The feeling is that once Seattle trades Cliff Lee, pretty much everyone on their roster not named Ichiro and Felix Hernandez will be available as well. 
  • Diamondbacks' CEO Derrick Hall isn't happy with his team's performance and has talked about re-evaluating his management staff. They could be major players at the deadline, with Justin Upton representing the only untouchable.
  • Cafardo says that the feeling among big league executives is that the Dodgers will not give up the prospects necessary to acquire Roy Oswalt, but they would be okay taking on the money.
  • Adam Dunn would be a perfect fit for the Red Sox if they let David Ortiz go after the season, assuming the Nationals don't re-sign him.  

Could Jonathan Papelbon Be Trade Bait?

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It still seems way too early to write off Boston's 2010 season, but as of today, the Red Sox stand eight games behind Tampa Bay for first place in the AL East.  The way the Rays and Yankees (when healthy) have played this season, it will be hard for the Red Sox to make a run at either the division lead or the wild card barring either an extended hot streak on their part or a big collapse from one of the leaders.

Should July roll around and the Sox still haven't made their move, club management may decide that adding players would be fruitless and instead turn their attention to reloading for 2011.  Boston is hoping they get some trade offers for the likes of Mike Lowell and David Ortiz, but perhaps the most intriguing possible pick-up for a contender would be Jonathan Papelbon.  The closer is having a solid season (3.15 ERA, 10 saves out of 11 chances), but there are some outliers that suggest Papelbon isn't quite the dominant closer he was just a couple of seasons ago.

Tony Massarotti of the Boston Globe suggests that Papelbon was overworked during the 2008 postseason and has never been quite the same since.  He points to Papelbon's ballooning walk rate, which went from 2.1 BB/9 over the first four years of his career to 3.2 BB/9 in 2009 and 4.5 BB/9 this season.  Papelbon's srikeouts are down too — he has just a 6.8 K/9 ratio this season, well below the 10.4 K/9 average he posted in the first five years of his career.

Papelbon's slight decline could force the Red Sox to make a hard choice when it comes to the prospect of a long-term contract for their star closer.  Papelbon avoided arbitration last winter when he signed a one-year, $9.35MM deal, and he still has one more arbitration year left before becoming a free agent after the 2011 season.  As ESPN's Rob Neyer puts it, since Papelbon is still having an overall good season, "he'll get a raise next year and probably a nice one. Is a reasonably good reliever worth (say) $11 million?"  The presence of Daniel Bard as Boston's closer of the future is even more incentive for the Sox to think about moving Papelbon sooner rather than later.

Given Papelbon's pedigree, the right-hander would likely be a much more reliable midseason addition for a contender than other possible available closers as Matt Capps or Kevin Gregg.  If Brad Lidge can't pull himself together and Jose Contreras comes back to earth, the Phillies could be in the market for a proven closer.  Same with Colorado, should the Franklin Morales/Manuel Corpas tandem not work out.  Even the Angels could be a possibility if they can turn things around — if Brian Fuentes continues to struggle, L.A. might not be comfortable handing the job over to Fernando Rodney.

Odds & Ends: Helton, Gaudin, Hensley, Papelbon

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Links for Monday…

  • Troy Renck of The Denver Post has the details of Todd Helton's new contract extension. He can void the deal if two of three general partners sell their controlling interest in the team, and it contains $13.1MM in deferred money at three percent interest.
  • The Yankees could look to move Chad Gaudin soon, according to Rosenthal (via Twitter). In another tweet, he mentions that Clay Hensley can opt out of his contract with the Marlins if he's not on the roster by April 1st.
  • Jim Bowden shows off his post-trade fist pump in his latest GM's Corner video for FOX Sports.  Bowden asked a slew of GMs about their processes for making deals; Frank Wren estimated that less than ten percent of discussions lead to trades.
  • In considering Jonathan Papelbon's future, WEEI's Alex Speier demonstrates just how risky large multiyear deals for relievers have been.
  • FoxSports.com's Ken Rosenthal says the Blue Jays "will not settle for fringe prospects in return" for relievers Scott Downs and Jason Frasor, and they could use them to continue the rebuilding effort.
  • Rosenthal adds that Gary Sheffield is talking to a NL club, though it's not clear which one. 
  • Meanwhile, Jon Paul Morosi of FoxSports.com notes that both Jamey Wright and Austin Kearns have out clauses in their contracts, but a club official said the provisions will not impact the makeup of the team. A source added that there are "no trades on the horizon" for Cleveland.

The 2012 Free Agent Class

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Jeff Euston of Cot's Baseball Contracts recently posted an unofficial list of players who will become free agents after the 2011 season. That free agent class will be highlighted by a trio of first basemen: Prince Fielder, Adrian Gonzalez, and Ryan Howard, though there's a chance Albert Pujols will join them if he and the Cardinals can't work out an extension. 

Some other notable players scheduled to become free agents after 2011 include Jason Bartlett, Carlos Beltran, Mark Buehrle, Edwin Jackson, Heath Bell, and Jonathan Papelbon. Robinson Cano, Yadier Molina, Grady Sizemore, and Matt Cain may also become free agents if their club options for 2012 are declined. 

Obviously a lot will change between now and then, but it's never too early to look ahead!

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