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Nathaniel Lowe Questionable For Opening Day

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Rangers first baseman Nathaniel Lowe has been diagnosed with an oblique strain that could keep him sidelined long enough that he’ll need to open the year on the injured list, manager Bruce Bochy announced to the Rangers beat this morning (X link via MLB.com’s Kennedi Landry). As Landry points out, it’d be the first IL stint of the ultra-durable Lowe’s professional career.

Jeff Wilson of RangersToday.com adds that the team provided a rough, initial timetable for Lowe of three to four weeks. That generally aligns with the timeframe that’s common for most oblique injuries of note; even Grade 1 strains tend to sideline players for around a month. Presumably, the Rangers will provide further updates as camp progresses. Lowe was just lifted from Thursday’s Cactus League game after reporting some tightness in his side to the team’s training staff.

Texas has sufficient infield depth to withstand a short-term loss of Lowe, but his subtraction from the lineup would still be a notable hit to the team’s offense. While his 2023 performance (.262/.360/.414, 17 homers, 114 wRC+) wasn’t nearly as strong as his outstanding breakout campaign in 2022 (.302/.358/.492, 27 homers, 141 wRC+), Lowe was still one of the most productive hitters in a stacked Rangers lineup.

In the event that Lowe opens the year on the injured list, there are a number of routes the Rangers could go. Lowe has taken a whopping 94.2% of the team’s plate appearances at first base over the past three seasons, so Texas hasn’t needed to replace him too often. Utilityman Ezequiel Duran and catcher Sam Huff have both seen very brief time at first base on the rare days Lowe has been given a breather. The Rangers have bat-first infield prospect Justin Foscue in camp, and he’s already on the 40-man roster, so he’d also be an option to make his debut and take some reps at first base. Former Angels first baseman Jared Walsh is also in camp as a non-roster invitee and has thus far had a big showing in an obviously limited sample (7-for-17 with a double, a homer, three walks and four strikeouts).

The Rangers acquired Lowe from the Rays in a rare trade that’s gone poorly for Tampa Bay — at least thus far. In three seasons as Texas’ primary first baseman, Lowe has slashed .276/.359/.440 (122 wRC+) with 62 homers, an 11% walk rate and a 23.6% strikeout rate. Texas sent infielder Osleivis Basabe, catcher Heriberto Hernandez and outfielder Alexander Ovalles back to the Rays in that swap. Basabe made his MLB debut last year with the Rays but struggled in 31 games. Hernandez ranks 18th among Rays farmhands at Baseball America and isn’t in the team’s top 30 at MLB.com. Ovalles was selected by the Reds in the minor league phase of the 2023 Rule 5 Draft.

Rangers Select Four Players

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The Rangers announced Tuesday that they’ve selected the contracts of infielder Justin Foscue, right-hander Marc Church, lefty Antoine Kelly and righty Jose Corniell to the 40-man roster. All are now protected from next month’s Rule 5 Draft.

Foscue, 24, is perhaps the most recognizable name for fans. The 14th overall pick back in 2020, he’s ranked among the organization’s top prospects since that time. He turned in a sound .266/.394/.468 slash in Triple-A Round Rock this year, adding 18 homers and 14 steals with more walks (15.1%) than strikeouts (12.4%). Foscue has worked primarily as a second baseman in the minors, though due to questions about his glovework, he’s also seen increased time at the infield corners.

Church was an 18th-round pick by Texas back in 2019. Now 22 years old, he split the 2023 season between Double-A and Triple-A, working to a combined 3.63 ERA with a combined 29.5% strikeout rate but 11.2% walk rate. All but two of Church’s appearances on the season came in a relief role, which is how he’ll likely be used on the big league roster if he makes his debut next year. Given that he already has 44 Triple-A frames under his belt and is now on the 40-man roster, there’s a decent chance of that happening.

Kelly, 24 next month, was the Brewers’ second-round pick in 2019. He landed in the Rangers organization as part of Texas’ return for reliever Matt Bush at the 2022 trade deadline. Kelly split the 2023 season between the bullpen for the Rangers’ Double-A and Triple-A affiliates, working to a combined 2.04 ERA with a gaudy 32.1% strikeout rate against a 9.3% walk rate. Like Church, he could be a bullpen option as soon as the 2024 season.

Corniell, 20, was the player to be named later the Rangers received in their 2020 trade sending Rafael Montero to the Mariners. He split the season between the Rangers’ two A-ball affiliates, working as a starter and posting a composite 2.92 ERA with a 29.8% strikeout rate, 7.8% walk rate and 39% ground-ball rate in 101 2/3 innings. He’s unlikely to emerge as a viable big league option next year, but the Rangers were high enough on his arm and the success he had against much more advanced competition that they’ll dedicate a 40-man roster spot to him anyhow.

Rangers Notes: Dunning, Ragans, Smith, Foscue

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The Rangers could carry righty Dane Dunning and left-hander Cole Ragans in the big league bullpen to open the season, writes Evan Grant of the Dallas Morning News. Both pitchers were squeezed out of the initial rotation mix by Texas’ busy offseason. Jacob deGrom, Andrew Heaney and Nathan Eovaldi were all brought in to join Martín Pérez and Jon Gray in the starting five. Even with trade pickup Jake Odorizzi headed to the injured list, there’s no room in the season-opening five for Dunning or Ragans.

Rather than option either to Triple-A Round Rock to start the year, the Rangers might prefer to keep them stretched out as multi-inning options at the MLB level. The Rangers plan to be cautious with early-season workloads for deGrom and Eovaldi after each had minor soreness that slightly delayed them in camp. Dunning and Ragans could handle bulk work in relief. The former was second on the team with 153 1/3 innings over 29 starts last year; the latter worked 40 frames over nine big league starts after tallying 94 2/3 innings in the upper minors.

There are also some roster questions on the position player side, perhaps none bigger than in center field. Adolis García and Robbie Grossman are ticketed for most of the corner outfield work. Leody Taveras should get first crack up the middle if healthy, but his status for Opening Day is still up in the air owing to an oblique strain earlier this month.

Perhaps not coincidentally, Texas has begun to get Josh Smith some work in center field, as Grant writes in a separate piece. The 25-year-old didn’t see any big league time there last year, instead splitting his rookie campaign between third base, shortstop and left field. Texas gave Smith 131 innings in center in Triple-A. They were apparently sufficiently impressed to consider him a potential part-time option there at the highest level. He’s a slightly above-average runner who has plenty of experience in the middle infield, so it’s not out of the question he’s athletic enough to handle the outfield’s toughest position.

Smith doesn’t have a path to everyday playing time at any one spot after hitting .197/.307/.249 over his first 253 MLB plate appearances. An ability to take on tough defensive assignments would increase his utility off the bench. The Rangers have Bubba Thompson and non-roster invitee Travis Jankowski — neither of whom is hitting this spring — as the most straightforward center field replacements for Taveras. Smith might have the most offensive upside of that trio in spite of his slow start against big league pitching. He’d hit .290/.395/.466 in 55 games in Triple-A.

The efforts to broaden versatility aren’t limited to the MLB level. As part of a reader mailbag earlier this week, The Athletic’s Jamey Newberg noted that Texas is planning to get prospect Justin Foscue more work on the corner infield this year in Round Rock. Texas’ first-round draftee in 2020, Foscue has mostly played second base as a professional. He logged 106 innings at the hot corner with Double-A Frisco last year and played there regularly during his first couple collegiate seasons at Mississippi State. He has virtually no experience at first base.

Foscue will continue to get time at second base as well, though finding comfort at multiple positions could aid him in getting to the majors as a bat-first utility player. Marcus Semien should have the keystone secure for years to come. Foscue isn’t far off the majors from an offensive perspective after hitting .288/.367/.483 with 15 homers and a meager 14.3% strikeout rate in Round Rock last year.

Rangers Sign Top Two Draft Picks

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The Rangers this morning will formally announce the signing of their top two picks, Mississippi State second baseman Justin Foscue and Elizabethton High School (Tenn.) outfielder Evan Carter, according to executive vice president of communications John Blake. MLB Network’s Jon Heyman reports that Foscue signed for a $3.25MM bonus, which checks in south of the No. 14 overall selection’s $4.037MM slot value. Carter will get a $1.25MM bonus, Evan Grant of the Dallas Morning News tweets. His No. 50 slot carried a $1.47MM value.

Foscue, 21, batted .331/.395/.564 as a sophomore and was out to a .321/.464/.509 start as a junior prior to the college season’s shutdown. Dating back to the beginning of his sophomore season, Foscue has drawn 45 walks against 35 strikeouts through a combined 378 plate appearances. Scouting reports on Foscue paint him as a bat-first second baseman with particularly intriguing exit velocities at the plate, but he’s not regarded as a strong defensive prospect or a plus runner.

Foscue ranked as high as 19th on the draft rankings from Kiley McDaniel at ESPN. FanGraphs’ Eric Longenhagen pegged him 26th in this year’s class, and Foscue also checked in at No. 32 at MLB.com, No. 36 at Baseball America and No. 63 at The Athletic.

As for Carter, his selection was somewhat of a surprise. The Duke commit didn’t appear on any pre-draft rankings — even BA’s Top 500 — although that hardly means he’s not a prospect of note or that another club wasn’t similarly intrigued in his abilities. Texas scouting director Kip Fagg told Evan Grant of the Dallas Morning News after the draft that Carter and other lesser-heralded Rangers pick “would have really popped” had they been able to play out the 2020 season. It’s commonplace for a breakout senior season to send a prospect skyrocketing up rankings, and the Rangers believe they “beat teams to these guys,” Fagg tells Grant. In the aforementioned tweet from Grant, he reports that the Royals were eyeing Carter in the third round.

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