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Manny Ramirez

Manny To Philly Rumor Looks False

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This trade rumor has been lighting up forums across the Internet all day long:  Manny Ramirez to the Phillies for Bobby Abreu.  According to the rumor, it’s "basically a done deal."  I got in touch with my very best Phillies source for the scoop.  According to my source:

"I checked it out with high-ranking sources as early as 4 p.m., then again at 7. Nothing is going on."

This is definitely an authentic, reliable source, so I have to assume that this trade rumor doesn’t have a leg to stand on.  I’m the last guy to want to kill an exciting trade rumor, but Manny for Abreu is not a done deal as far as I can tell.

White Sox Receive Tejada Offer

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Remember when I decided to start calling Kenny Williams "spunky" based on his Javier Vazquez and Jim Thome trades?  I’m starting to think I should stick with "bold," as cliche as it may be.

As I mentioned earlier on this site, the White Sox submitted two trade proposals for Miguel Tejada with a deadline of December 31st.  Now the White Sox have re-entered the Tejada fray.

A rock-solid source of mine close to the White Sox tells me that the team is "lying in the weeds" and allowing the Mets, Devil Rays, Orioles, and Red Sox to beat each other up with this whole Manny/Tejada 4-way thing.  The White Sox hope that the 4-way deal falls apart because it’s too complicated and too expensive.  Presently, it seems that their wish will be fulfilled.

The Orioles want the Tejada deal done soon, and approached the White Sox yesterday with a proposal.  The Orioles asked for Jose Contreras, Juan Uribe, Ryan Sweeney, and a top pitching prospect.  That unknown prospect may be a sticking point, but it can probably be worked out.  Alex Woodson has been previously mentioned in discussions between the two clubs.  It would be a daring move by Kenny Williams to subtract Uribe and Aaron Rowand after winning a World Series with defense as the team’s strength.

My source tells me to look for an announcement by Friday about Tejada, no matter where he ends up.  The White Sox have their own motivation to wrap things up before the weekend: they’d like to have an announcement that does not conflict with a Bears playoff weekend or the Cubs Convention.

Agreement For Manny Trade?

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The latest Manny rumor making the rounds comes courtesy of commenter Wild Bill from the Orioles Hangout Forum.  As far as Bill’s track record, I can direct you to a thread over at Sons of Sam Horn.  According to the poster:

"There are three reputed "insiders" [at Orioles Hangout] and all three seem to agree that the trade has been agreed upon in principal but that Manny’s request for an extension will likely cause the deal to fall through. As for their validity, it seems each does have a source either within the Orioles organization or one who is once removed from someone inside.

That said, I don’t believe any of them have access to Mike Flanigan or any direct decision maker. The only thing that makes me feel this could be accurate is the fact that all three agree. Generally, they tend to have slightly different takes on the goings on inside the Orioles’ FO."

Here’s the main point of Wild Bill’s post:

"The word is the Tejada-Ramirez/Clement trade has been agreed to in principle by the two teams blocked only at this time with last minute complications caused by Manny."

Using 2005 WARP (Wins Above Replacement Player) values, the net gain for the Red Sox would be -3.6 wins.  Meaning that in a vacuum, this trade makes the team worse.  Of course, the move would free up significant salary for the Sox (I haven’t heard whether money would change hands) so the team would probably make up the difference in value somewhere else.

Manny Ramirez is on the hook for $58MM over the next three seasons.  Matt Clement will make $19MM over the next two seasons.  Miguel Tejada is owed $48MM over the next four seasons.  For the 2006 season only, this trade would free up $18.5MM for the Red Sox.

I’ll supply more updates on this trade possibility as I hear them. 

New Manny Scenario Discussed?

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A source close to the Mets organization has supplied me with a possible trade scenario that is being discussed.  It’s complicated, but I thought I’d put it out there.

Mets trade: Aaron Heilman, Cliff Floyd, Victor Diaz, Brian Bannister
Mets get: Manny Ramirez

TB trades: Julio Lugo, Joey Gathright
TB receives: Aaron Heilman, Victor Diaz, Bronson Arroyo

Red Sox trade: Manny Ramirez, Bronson Arroyo
Red Sox receive: Julio Lugo, Joey Gathright, Cliff Floyd, Brian Bannister

Wow.  I’m not sure if this is any more plausible than the other complicated possibilities floating around, but this is a solid source.  Let’s see if it passes the reality test.

The Mets give up Heilman, Floyd, Diaz, and Bannister for Manny.  That’s a huge bounty, but the only real gem there is Heilman.  Plus, Manny is still a superstar.  Diaz is a good outfield prospect, and Bannister is a B level starter with a low ceiling.  Floyd is a year away from free agency and expendable if Manny is acquired.  The Mets could always try to get Manny and keep Floyd, but Floyd hasn’t played RF since 2002.  I would say this portion is not too far-fetched.

How about Tampa Bay’s side of things?  First off, my guess is that upper management would be reluctant to package Lugo and Gathright together.  As with the Huff/Baez rumors, why not just trade them separately and maximize the return?  The demand is certainly there.  Lugo is a hot commodity right now, and the Rays have been asking for a lot of Gathright (Scott Olsen?).  Arroyo would make a great #2 for TB; I’ve projected him to lead the Red Sox in wins in 2006.  The team doesn’t have a need for Diaz in a stacked outfield.  Then again, he’d be a decent fit at first base.  They’d probably love to have Heilman in the rotation or closing games.  Overall, I’d label this part of the trade as somewhat questionable.

The Red Sox are basically getting three quality Major Leaguers in return for a superstar and a promising young starter.  Given Floyd’s injury record and impending free agency, I can see his inclusion.  Gathright hasn’t proven anything at the Major League level yet; only Lugo is a known quantity, and he’s also got free agency looming.  So if you look at it that way, things seem fair for the Red Sox.  The Mets might even have to throw in some cash to make this work for the Sox.       

Wild Rumor From Gotham Baseball

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Gotham Baseball’s Mark Healey has heard a massive trade rumor from "multiple independent baseball sources."  Of course, it’s subject to change, isn’t close, and all the usual disclaimers.  Here’s the Cliff Notes version of it:

"Mets would send Heilman and Matsui (and $5 million) to Tampa Bay for Lugo. Then New York would send Lugo, Kris Benson, Brian Bannister and Victor Diaz to Baltimore for Tejada, and then send Tejada to the Red Sox for Manny Ramirez."

Let’s stop right there.  My opinion on each step of this possible deal:

Aaron Heilman for Julio Lugo sounds like fair value to me.  Gotham’s sources have the Mets eating $5MM of the $8MM owed to Kaz Matsui in 2006.  That part gels with the information I’ve heard from my Mets source that New York would have to pay at least half of Matsui’s salary to unload him. I’m not sure how the Devil Rays would structure their infield, with Jorge Cantu entrenched at second base and B.J. Upton ready to take over at short.  I had thought the D-Rays would hold out for more than this for Lugo – a good reliever plus someone else’s baggage.  I still feel that they’ll want more.

So then the Orioles are giving up their superstar shortstop, possibly one of the five best players in baseball, for Julio Lugo, Kris Benson, Brian Bannister, and Victor Diaz.  This is where the plausibility of the rumor breaks down for me.  The Orioles have given every indication that they need a star player back for Tejada – they’re not even sold on Mark Prior.  Lugo’s a good player for $5MM, but he hits free agency after that.  Benson is a fourth starter who figures to post an ERA around 4 over the next two seasons while being paid more than $15MM.  That doesn’t add much value for the O’s.  Bannister is a smart young pitcher with a good minor league track record, but Baseball America has said he’s "not overpowering" and "doesn’t have a high ceiling."  Diaz is still a valuable prospect, but could easily turn out to be a career reserve.

To sum it up, the Orioles are giving up Tejada to get a pretty good SS in his contract year, an overpaid fourth starter, a B-level pitching prospect, and a solid outfield prospect.  That’s quantity over quality, and I don’t see it happening.

To finish it off, the Mets ship Tejada to the Red Sox for Manny, effectively giving up nothing impressive for the superstar outfielder, considering the players sent to Baltimore.  Not entirely sold on that step, and I’d heard the Orioles did not want Tejada to play for a division rival.

UPDATE:  Just asked my Mets source whether the above scenario could happen.  He said there’s no way: "Orioles get screwed, the Red Sox get screwed, and the Mets have everything go their way." 

Healey’s article also mentions these comments from a baseball official:

"If Barry Zito doesn’t get dealt before opening day, the A’s are screwed.  No one is willing to pay Beane’s price after what the Braves paid for Hudson [Namely, Dan Meyer, Juan Cruz and Charles Thomas]."

I don’t agree with the baseball official, for what it’s worth.  The A’s hold all the cards with Zito.  They have absolutely no need to unload him, and will boast a deep rotation if they keep Zito until July.  I find it odd that the official cites the Hudson trade as hurting Beane’s ability to make major trades.  The Tim Hudson deal is one where the Braves can be labeled a clear winner.  The highly touted Meyer quickly got hurt and is a question mark, Cruz wasn’t deemed Major League ready by Oakland, and Charles Thomas has completely crapped out.  Perhaps the official meant to refer to the Mark Mulder trade.

Mets Catching Priorities And More

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Talked to my Mets source recently, and their priorities for catcher are as follows.

1.  Ramon Hernandez, but only at the right length (three years) and price (maybe $8MM per).  The Mets are pretending publicly they’d start the season with Ramon Castro behind the plate.  That posturing is similar to the Yankees’ assertion that they could begin the ’06 season with Bubba Crosby in center.  Not gonna happen.

2.  Bengie Molina, if he takes less cash than Hernandez.

3.  Brad Ausmus.

4.  Toby Hall through trade. 

Ivan Rodriguez is not on the club’s radar due to injury concerns and his salary. 

The Mets are likely to trade Jeff Keppinger or Anderson Hernandez and start the remaining player in Triple A in 2006.  They have an eye on Mark Grudzielanek to fill the 2B void.

The latest on Manny Ramirez is that the Red Sox are simply asking for too much from the Mets for the slugger.  New York is the one serious trade partner for Ramirez and won’t be surrendering Lastings Milledge and Cliff Floyd.

Mets To Swap Cameron For Nady

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Over at RotoAuthority, I did an in-depth breakdown of the rumored Manny Ramirez trade.  The conclusion?  Even a trade of just Lastings Milledge and Mike Cameron for Manny Ramirez would be damaging to the Mets by 2007.  If the Mets add Yusmeiro Petit or Aaron Heilman to the mix, they get killed in the deal.

But now we have a new trade rumor that puts a wrinkle in the proposed Manny deal.  Word is that Mike Cameron for Xavier Nady is close to a done deal. 

Nady’s versatility is helpful, but he won’t match Cameron’s value in 2006.  Cameron’s not a star player in my book, but then again, you know you’ve made it when people start impersonating you to score painkillers.  Cameron plays a solid center field, and can still add 6 wins to a team at age 33.  Nady is 27 and is still several years away from free agency.  The Mets are hoping he can approximate his production from Triple A Portland in 2004: .330/.391/.629 in 74 games.  Nady did slug .615 in June of ’05, so the potential is intriguing.

More interesting than the Cameron for Nady trade itself is the related fallout.  Consider:

The Red Sox would have one less option to replace Johnny Damon, and it becomes more likely that they bite the bullet and offer him a four-year deal.

The Mets back away from Carlos Delgado, Paul Konerko, and other available first basemen.  They begin the year with some combination of Mike Jacobs and Xavier Nady at the position.

A new group of players would have to be assembled to entice the Red Sox to surrender Ramirez.  Rest assured that if Lastings Milledge is involved, the Red Sox will still be listening.   

Thanks to Ryan from Berkeley

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