NL Central Notes: Mikolas, Walker, Hill, Senzel
Miles Mikolas didn’t exactly suggest that he might give the Cardinals a so-called hometown discount in a new contract, even though the team’s spring camp is located in his actual hometown of Jupiter, Florida. Mikolas noted to MLB.com’s John Denton that when he returned to the big leagues after pitching in Japan from 2015-17, “I had four or five offers that were all about the same, and I chose the Cardinals because of the organization, the fanbase and because Spring Training is in my hometown. There are always a lot of factors that play into it, and they’ll play into it if I have a decision to make down the road.” Of course, Mikolas also noted that other teams play near Jupiter, and joked that he wouldn’t necessarily be tied to the area since “the fishing is still pretty good on the west coast [of Florida].”
Mikolas said that “everything about being a Cardinal is fantastic” and that he is happy with St. Louis. As far as a long-term deal is concerned, “those decisions aren’t always up to the player. My job is to go out there and get outs as efficiently as I can, and that’s what I’m going to focus on.” After his initial deal with the Cardinals, Mikolas already agreed to one extension with the club, and 2023 is the final season of that four-year, $68MM pact. The Cards’ pitching outlook is a major storyline hanging over the team’s season, as Mikolas, Jack Flaherty, and Jordan Montgomery are all slated to free agency next winter and Adam Wainwright will retire after the year.
More from around the NL Central…
- Sticking with the Cardinals, the team is planning to focus all of Jordan Walker‘s spring work on the outfield, rather than any reps at his former third base position. Manager Oliver Marmol feels Walker would be able to adjust easily back to third base if a need arose, but the skipper told Lynn Worthy of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch that “when you’re making the transition as a young player, it’s hard to…stay sharp at a lot of different positions. With this transition of [Walker] playing the outfield for the first time, we’re solely focused on him improving there rather than put too much on his plate.” One of baseball’s top prospects, Walker has already drawn a lot of buzz after his very first spring start, and Walker seems likely to make his big league debut in 2023 even though he has yet to play at the Triple-A level. Though the St. Louis outfield is already pretty crowded, Walker’s position change became necessary since Nolan Arenado is locked in at the hot corner.
- Rich Hill underwent a minor elbow procedure following the 2022 season, Pirates GM Ben Cherington told Peter Abraham of the Boston Globe. Described as something of a clean-up surgery, it doesn’t appear that the procedure will impact Hill’s readiness for Opening Day, nor did it seem to hurt his free agent market — the Rangers, Red Sox, Orioles, and Angels all reportedly had interest in Hill before he signed a one-year, $8MM deal with Pittsburgh. Hill turns 43 years old on March 11, and the 2023 season will be Hill’s 19th Major League campaign.
- Reds manager David Bell shed some more light on Nick Senzel‘s recovery timeline, telling reporters (including Bobby Nightengale Jr. of the Cincinnati Enquirer) that the hope is for Senzel to be playing in Spring Training games by the middle of March. There was already an expectation that Senzel would be somewhat slowly ramped up to action while he returns to full fitness after offseason toe surgery, and a mid-March return date might allow for Senzel to be ready for Cincinnati’s Opening Day lineup. The toe surgery is the latest in a long list of injury problems for the former top prospect, who has been limited to 273 MLB games since making his Major League debut in May 2019.
Reds Notes: Antone, Santillan, Senzel
Reds reliever Tejay Antone announced last week he’d miss the start of the season after receiving a platelet-rich plasma injection to address a flexor strain in his forearm. He didn’t provide many more specifics but implied he could be sidelined by the All-Star Break. While that’s potentially still on the table, manager David Bell only indicated today that Antone would be out at least through the end of April (via Bobby Nightengale of the Cincinnati Enquirer).
Antone’s coming off a lost 2022 season after undergoing Tommy John surgery towards the tail end of the ’21 campaign. That was the second such procedure of his career, with injuries conspiring to rob the Reds of arguably their best reliever. Before his surgery, the former fifth-round draftee had pitched 33 2/3 innings of 2.14 ERA ball with a 32.8% strikeout rate.
Getting him back as quickly as possible will be crucial for a Cincinnati club that didn’t make any MLB additions to its bullpen this offseason. The Reds’ relief corps was a bottom ten unit by both ERA and strikeout/walk rate differential last season. The expected returns of Antone and Lucas Sims from surgery rehabs would’ve reinstalled a pair of high-leverage options. Sims is on track for full spring participation, Bell informed reporters today, but Antone’s loss subtracts one of the highest-upside hurlers from the mix.
Cincinnati might also be without Tony Santillan to start the season, Bell indicated. The 6’3″ righty didn’t pitch in last year’s second half on account of a lower back injury. That apparently carried into his offseason, and Santillan is behind schedule in his throwing program. A former second-round pick and once one of the more intriguing pitching prospects in the Reds’ system, he’s settled in as a reliever at the MLB level. Santillan came out of the bullpen 21 times last year, allowing 14 runs in 19 2/3 innings.
In more fortunate health news, center fielder Nick Senzel appears to be mostly ready to go for camp. The 27-year-old told C. Trent Rosecrans of the Athletic he feels good and has recovered from offseason toe surgery (Twitter link). While he indicated he might be built up a little more slowly than most players, it seems he’s on track for Opening Day. Senzel still looks the favorite for regular center field reps, though the Reds added a potential alternative with the acquisition of Will Benson from the Guardians last week. A former second overall pick, Senzel will be looking for a breakout year after hitting .240/.303/.360 through his first 273 MLB games.
Latest On Nick Senzel’s Injury Rehab
Nick Senzel saw his 2022 season cut a little short after fracturing a toe in his left foot in September. The injury cost him the final couple weeks of the year and lingered into the offseason, as it didn’t heal as anticipated. Senzel underwent surgery to correct the issue in the middle of November. Initial reports suggested that wasn’t expected to affect his readiness for Spring Training, though it’s not clear whether that’s still the case.
Bobby Nightengale of the Cincinnati Enquirer writes that Senzel has spent most of the offseason in a walking boot and suggests it’s now undermined when he’ll be a full-go for exhibition action. There’s still no indication the start of the regular season is in jeopardy. Nevertheless, it’s certainly not an ideal lead-up to what’s shaping up to be a pivotal year for the 27-year-old.
Senzel was the second overall pick in the 2016 draft. He predictably appeared among the game’s top prospect rankings in the intervening two years before making his MLB debut in 2019. Regarded by many evaluators as an advanced hitter who could play above-average defense at second or third base, Senzel has yet to tap into that upside at the major league level.
He’s posted below-average offensive numbers in all four of his MLB seasons, combining for a career line of .240/.303/.360 in a little more than 1000 plate appearances. Senzel also quickly moved off the infield and has spent the vast majority of his innings in center field. Statcast has generally rated him as an average defender there; Defensive Runs Saved, on the other hand, has panned his outfield work.
Regardless of his defensive acumen, Senzel will need to do more at the plate if he’s to continue garnering everyday playing time. The Reds seem prepared to give him that opportunity. Manager David Bell told reporters last month he’s likely to get the first crack in center field (Nightengale link). Cincinnati brass has expressed some openness to moving him around the diamond a little more during the upcoming season, though the Reds have a number of interesting infielders who are at or nearing the MLB level. The outfield outlook is less certain, with players like Nick Solak, Jake Fraley, TJ Friedl, Stuart Fairchild and Michael Siani joining Senzel on the 40-man roster.
It looks like a potential make-or-break season for Senzel, who has now surpassed three years of MLB service time. He and the club settled on a $1.95MM salary to avoid arbitration this winter. He’ll be eligible for that process twice more before reaching free agency after the 2025 season. That gives the Reds a bit of long-term contractual upside if he takes the step forward the organization has long envisioned, though another below-average showing would likely make him a non-tender candidate next winter.
Nick Senzel Undergoes Toe Surgery, Expected To Be Ready For Spring Training
Reds outfielder Nick Senzel underwent surgery to repair a fractured toe on his left foot last week, reports Bobby Nightengale of the Cincinnati Enquirer. He’s expected to be ready for Spring Training, but it looks as if his offseason routine could be impacted to some extent.
Senzel fractured the toe after he crashed into the outfield wall in pursuit of a fly ball in September. The injury ended his season a couple weeks early, and Nightengale writes that recent imaging showed the toe wasn’t healing itself properly, necessitating surgery. Despite the early conclusion, Senzel saw the most action of his MLB career in 2022. He appeared in 110 games and tallied 420 plate appearances, narrowly topping marks he established as a rookie in 2019.
It was another tough year for the former second overall pick, who managed only a .231/.296/.306 line with five home runs. Senzel also rated 11 runs below average defensively in center field, and both FanGraphs and Baseball Reference graded his overall performance below replacement level. The University of Tennessee product has now tallied just north of 1000 big league plate appearances over the last four years, hitting .240/.303/.360.
That kind of production is surely not what the Reds had envisioned when selecting Senzel so highly in the draft. That said, it’s also possible injuries have conspired to prevent him from getting into a groove to this point in his career. He battled vertigo as a prospect, then saw his 2019 season cut short by surgery to repair a labrum tear in his right shoulder. He lost a chunk of the 2020 season on the COVID-19 list, then missed most of the ’21 campaign rehabbing from a left knee issue that required arthroscopic surgery.
The Reds tendered Senzel an arbitration contract last week, with MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz projecting him for a $2.2MM salary next season. The 27-year-old is eligible for arbitration through 2025, but next year could be Senzel’s last crack at cementing himself as a long-term fixture on the Cincinnati roster.
He’s presently the favorite for the starting center field job, but Nightengale suggests the Reds could look for outside help at the position. That’d presumably be via the lower tier of free agency or the trade market and would push Senzel more into a multi-positional role off the bench. General manager Nick Krall told reporters last week Senzel was an option to factor in at third base, the position at which he was drafted. He’s only played 32 MLB innings at the hot corner while logging just over 2000 frames in the outfield.
Reds Place Mike Minor On Injured List
The Reds announced Friday that left-hander Mike Minor has been placed on the 15-day injured list due to soreness in his left shoulder. Cincinnati also reinstated righty Connor Overton from the 60-day injured list and, in order to make room for him on the 40-man roster, transferred outfielder Nick Senzel to the 60-day IL. Senzel suffered a fractured toe earlier in the week, which was already known to be a season-ending injury, given the timing.
Minor’s placement on the injured list essentially ends his season and quite likely ends his time as a member of the Reds organization. Acquired from the Royals prior to the 2022 season, the veteran southpaw began the season on the injured list due to problems in that same left shoulder. The Reds initially suggested Minor’s shoulder issue would not keep him out long, but he suffered an April setback and wound up missing the first two months of the season. He’ll now miss the final couple weeks as well.
All told, Minor’s potentially lone season in Cincinnati lasted 19 starts and 98 innings, during which time he struggled to a 6.06 ERA with a 16.7% strikeout rate and 8.8% walk rate. Home runs have increasingly become a problem for Minor in recent years, and the move to the Great American Ball Park — one of the game’s most homer-happy venues — unsurprisingly exacerbated the issue. Minor yielded a hefty 24 home runs in those 98 innings — 15 of them coming at home — for an average of 2.20 HR/9.
The Reds technically hold a $13MM club option over Minor for the 2023 season, though given this year’s struggles, they’ll surely pay the $1MM buyout on that option. It’s always possible the two parties could seek to renegotiate a new contract, but that net $12MM price tag for the Reds seems particularly steep for Minor, given that his struggles extend well beyond the 2022 season. Minor’s last healthy, productive season came in 2019, when he tossed 208 1/3 innings of 3.59 ERA ball for the Rangers. Since that time, he’s pitched 313 1/3 innings of 5.46 ERA ball across parts of three seasons.
As for Overton, his return from a stress reaction in his lower back will give the Reds a late look at a journeyman right-hander who enjoyed solid results early in the season, albeit with questionable underlying numbers. Overton, 29, pitched 24 2/3 innings out of the Cincinnati rotation earlier this year, logging a pristine 1.82 ERA but with just an 11.2% strikeout rate against a 7.9% walk rate. Opponents recorded an average exit velocity of 91 mph against him, and 44.4% of the balls hit against him were at 95mph or greater.
The Reds are Overton’s sixth MLB organization (to say nothing of a stint on the independent circuit) in what’s now a nine-year professional career. Selected by the Marlins in the 15th round of the 2014 draft, Overton has pitched in the minors with Miami, Washington, San Francisco, Pittsburgh, Toronto and now Cincinnati. He made his big league debut in 2021, pitching to a 4.70 ERA in 15 1/3 innings between the Pirates and Blue Jays. In parts of seven minor league seasons, Overton has a 3.98 ERA with a 21.4% strikeout rate and 7.7% walk rate.
Reds Select Michael Siani
The Reds announced that they have selected the contract of outfielder Michael Siani. The club already had a vacancy on their 40-man roster. Nick Senzel, who was already reported to be done for the season, will head to the 10-day injured list in a corresponding move to get Siani onto the active roster.
Siani, 23, was selected by the Reds in the fourth round of the 2018 draft. He immediately jumped into rookie ball that year and onto Baseball America’s list of top Cincinnati farmhands. Since that time, Siani has worked his way up the minor league ladder without hitting much but earning tremendous plaudits for his defense. BA’s report from the start of this year highlights Siani’s excellent glove work and says he’s best center fielder the Reds have had since Billy Hamilton.
Siani has spent most of this season in Double-A, hitting 12 home runs in 121 games and slashing .252/.351/.404. That production with the bat was enough for a 102 wRC+, or 2% above league average. He provided excellent value with his wheels, though, stealing 49 bases in that time. He got promoted to Triple-A recently and played eight games there, adding another two long balls and swiping three more bags.
With Senzel’s injury, there’s an opening for Siani to get some work in the final two weeks of the season. With the Reds well out of contention, they can give him a shot at roaming big league outfields and facing big league pitching before the offseason arrives.
Nick Senzel Suffers Season-Ending Toe Fracture
Reds center fielder Nick Senzel fractured a toe in his left foot during tonight’s loss to the Red Sox, he informed reporters (including Bobby Nightengale of the Cincinnati Enquirer). The injury, suffered when he collided with the outfield wall, brings a premature end to his 2022 season.
The Reds have long since been out of the playoff picture, but it’s obviously not ideal to lose Senzel to another injured list stint. It’s unfortunately been a common occurrence for the former #2 overall pick. Senzel spent time on the COVID-19 list earlier this year, and he lost good chunks of the 2020 and ’21 seasons to physical maladies. He appeared in only 59 combined games over the prior two seasons, although he nevertheless started as Cincinnati’s Opening Day center fielder for the third straight year.
Senzel did manage a career-high 420 plate appearances over 110 games this year. The results, however, have been disappointing. He hit .231/.297/.306, connecting on just five home runs. While he only struck out in 18.1% of his plate appearances, he’s not drawn many walks and has gotten subpar results on batted balls. Senzel has just over 1000 plate appearances as a major leaguer and carried a .240/.304/.360 line into play tonight.
It’s theoretically possible tonight’s injury marks an end to Senzel’s time in Cincinnati. He’s arbitration-eligible through 2025, but he could be a non-tender candidate after another below-average campaign. He’ll only be due a modest raise on this year’s $1.25MM salary, and the Reds are likely to be in for another non-competitive season in 2023. The front office could use that as justification to give the former top prospect another opportunity to try to cement himself as a regular, but it’s fair to wonder whether they may look outside the organization for center field help this winter. Cincinnati has gotten just a .230/.293/.332 line out of the position on the season. That’s 25th among the league’s 30 teams by measure of wRC+, topping only the Astros, Phillies, Rockies, A’s and Guardians.
Reds Select Aristides Aquino, Albert Almora
It’s been a whirlwind day of transactions for the Reds, who earlier today returned the trio of Aristides Aquino, Graham Ashcraft and Taylor Motter to Triple-A Louisville when they reinstated a handful of players from the restricted list following their series in Toronto. Aquino, however, has now been formally selected to the 40-man roster, per a team announcement, as has outfielder Albert Almora Jr. The Reds will place righty Connor Overton on the 60-day injured list to open one roster spot and will move infielder Donovan Solano from the 10-day IL to the 60-day IL to create a second one. Cincinnati also activated Nick Senzel from the injured list and optioned fellow outfielder TJ Friedl to Triple-A Louisville to open an active roster spot.
It’s been a busy day at Great American Ball Park, to say the least. The Reds found out that Overton, who’s made four strong starts for them after signing a minor league contract over the offseason, will be shut down for the next six to eight weeks due to a stress reaction in his back (Twitter link via MLB.com’s Mark Sheldon). That period of six to eight weeks is not a total timetable for Overton’s return but rather the time he’ll go without picking up a ball. In all likelihood, he’ll need several more weeks to build up his arm strength once that shutdown period is over.
Based on that newly provided timeline for Overton, it seems as though Overton is due for a months-long absence. He’d tossed 24 2/3 innings of 1.82 ERA ball to begin his time with the Reds, and while his .208 BABIP and minuscule 11.1% strikeout rate pointed to some likely regression, his absence will nonetheless further thin out an already injury-depleted rotation mix. Trade acquisitions Mike Minor and Justin Dunn have yet to pitch for the Reds thanks to shoulder troubles, and a lower back strain has shelved top prospect Nick Lodolo just a few starts into his MLB debut campaign.
As for the newly selected outfielders, neither is a stranger to the Reds’ outfield. That’s particularly true of Aquino, who set the baseball world ablaze when he ripped 14 home runs in August 2019 after being summoned to the Majors. Since that jaw-dropping debut month, however, Aquino has batted just .177/.264/.361 with a 36.2% strikeout rate in 407 plate appearances.
Almora, meanwhile, has logged nine games for the Reds already this season (primarily as a Covid substitute) and hit well n 29 plate appearances: .296/.321/.370. A longtime division rival with the Cubs, he’s a lifetime .266/.303/.388 hitter in the Majors. That includes a solid 2016-17 run to begin his career, however. Dating back to Opening Day 2018, Almora owns a more tepid .253/.291/.361 output.
Reds Select Albert Almora, Ronnie Dawson
The Reds announced this evening that outfielders Nick Senzel and Tyler Naquin have been placed on the COVID-19 injured list. Fellow outfielders Albert Almora Jr. and Ronnie Dawson have been selected to the majors as designated COVID substitutes.
It’s the second time this season that both Senzel and Naquin have gone on the virus list. They join first baseman Joey Votto, who hit the COVID list yesterday. The team didn’t announce whether either player has tested positive, is dealing with symptoms, or has been identified as a close contact.
That the team specified Almora’s and Dawson’s selections as being of the “substitute” variety is notable for their roster status. Under the 2022 health and safety protocols, the commissioner’s office has the sole discretion to determine whether a team has been sufficiently impacted by COVID to call up “substitute” players. If granted permission, the team can then return those substitutes back to Triple-A (and, if he was not previously on the 40-man, off the roster entirely) without utilizing a minor league option or passing the player through waivers.
Neither Almora nor Dawson were previously on the 40-man roster. Almora inked a minor league contract over the offseason, while the Reds plucked Dawson from the Astros in the minor league phase of the Rule 5 draft. Both players can thus be taken off the 40-man and returned to Triple-A Louisville without clearing waivers as the team gets healthier.
Almora is the more familiar name for most fans. A top ten pick of the Cubs in 2012, he spent a few seasons as Chicago’s primary center fielder. Almora played strong defense and hit at a roughly league average level for his first couple years in the majors, but his offensive output turned downwards beginning in 2019. He played in 47 games but only tallied 54 plate appearances for the Mets last season. He has gotten off to a productive if atypical start at Louisville, hitting .380/.392/.460. Almora has walked just once in 51 plate appearances, but he’s also only punched out twice.
Dawson is an Ohio native who played collegiately at Ohio State. He made a brief debut with Houston last season, tallying six plate appearances in three games. The 26-year-old is hitting .283/.377/.435 over 106 plate appearances with the Bats. He has suited up at all three outfield positions but spent the majority of his time in the corners.
Reds Place Nick Senzel On Injured List, Recall Daniel Duarte
The Reds announced a pair of corresponding roster moves today. Nick Senzel has been placed on the COVID-related injured list, though he has not tested positive, per C. Trent Rosecrans of The Athletic (via Twitter). To take his roster spot, they recalled right-handed reliever Daniel Duarte. They now have an 11-man bullpen with just three extra position players on the bench.
Duarte made his big league debut already this season with a pair of appearances spanning 1 2/3 innings. The 25-year-old right-hander played across four different levels of the Reds’ system in 2021, totaling 23 2/3 innings over 19 outings with a 4.56 ERA.
But this move is more about Senzel, who has struggled to stay on the field in his young career. Jonathan India is also suffering from a sore hamstring, leaving the Reds pretty severely short-handed on the bench. They clearly aren’t all that concerned about it in the short-term, however, given their decision to add another arm to the bullpen. Given the COVID designation, there is no minimum length of stay on the injured list, so the Reds may expect to get Senzel back sooner than later. For today, Brandon Drury is getting the start for India again, while Jake Fraley steps in for Senzel as the center fielder of record.